Best Of

Best wishes for all 🙂

@epc wrote;

Above, you also say you thought there is a no-crack state of V-2. Do you have coins/photos of such examples?

I checked and almost all of them have very small cracks in most locations visible in high grades like AU and above.
This includes some with the RPD visible.

Here is Frank's V-2 EDS EF-40 which does not seem to have any cracks, and it has the RPD visible.
But it is an EF-40 so the surfaces are not as nice as AU and above.

Here is Frank's V-2 VLDS MS-62 with RI bases joined and cracks in the dentil cud area above T1E1.
It does not seem to have the vertical die break in the leaf between DIME and ER.

Stack's 57 collection was an accumulation put together by a hoarder from circulation. Fairmount represents more like the holdings of a government or bank. That's my guess.

Thirty to forty years ago, when I was more directly involved with several large auctioneers, numismatic and non numismatic, I can remember hearing word of a huge hoard of gold in Venezuela. Some negotiations took place back then but the coins didn't come north. I think that they finally have been sold. The excitement is fading and prices are declining.

Let me preface by saying Doug IS a legend, and he likely forgot more than I’ll ever know about these coins. They’ve been his specialty for decades, so he’s positioned where he's likely handled just about all of them, and pretty much single handedly created the appreciation and demand for them with his research and literature. As a specialist dealer, it's in his interest to advocate for his area of expertise. After all, that’s where his insight allows him to identify value and trends that others don't see. With any specialist dealer, you may pay a bit more than you would in an auction, but the guidance of a decades-long expert can be priceless; especially when you only have pictures to base your decisions.

With that, every specialist has a bias, even if it's subconscious, that may influence their projections. Doug is pretty high up on the objectivity spectrum compared to most, but any dealer's opinion of should be taken with a tiny grain of salt, just like any opinion. Clearly, some opinions are worth more than others and I consider Dougs to be highly valuable. At the same time, I wouldn't his blog to portray a negative outlook on the future performance of his inventory, and the same can be said for any dealer with a niche focus. The good thing is that Doug is straightforward and his experience is expensive, he knows what he's talking about.

Everything I've said until this point has been mostly observations , but if you want to know what my personal opinion that's just speculation with no factual basis, I have trouble finding the value in many branch mint gold issues. To mitigate this, I like to buy personality pieces that have an extraordinary appearance compared to its brethren. This strategy basically gives you a “unique” example that someone else is likely to fall In love with down the road. Regardless of hoards and increases in pop reports, your coin can not easily be replaced. Otherwise, I don’t understand how some of thse BM issues hold value like they do, in a 65+ year run containing six different mints. Though what we do know that rarity =/= demand/collectibility, and since southern gold has such a charming history similar to the pioneer operations, its always going to have more demand and sex appeal than Philly gold.

Some of the issues are truly scarce, but some are only because of variety split. Some issues are not even remotely scarce , the 54-d “large D” had an estimated 600+ survivors a decade ago BEFORE Fairmont, hundreds of them available in choice AU grades . I just don’t grasp how an AU58 example trends around 10k, when some of the other D or C issues that are 3-4x as rare seemingly cost the same? In a time of uncertainty, where there may be dozens, even hundreds of coins about to join the party? Could it be that the prominent mint mark makes it so desirable? Is there an 1854 type set bolstering demand? Not sure, but If I wanted one I would make no concessions with eye appeal. An issue that comes around frequently allows you to be picky and wait for one that checks every box. I guess this is a great issue to illustrate Dougs point bout the common issues being absorbed easier than an esoteric one?

For me, in terms of long term value, I'd opt for the Moffatt or Clark $5 issues for the same price if you don't mind slightly lower grades. Another direction would be a nice Draped or capped Bust $5. Either of them have a very limited run of issues in the set, and are much less likely to be found in hoards. Other notable issues that can be had under 15k would be the $20 Kellogg, a 1853 assay $20, 1849 Norris etc,
This is jmo, but I think all of those are cooler and provide so much value by comparison. Don’t let me be turd in the punch bowl though. I love southern gold, I buy and sell southern gold, but I just wouldn’t hold much of it unless it’s a knockout type like @CharlotteDude coins. Without the the history behind them though, they just look like ordinary $5 libs with a different mint mark at first glance. I really like designs that weren't used for a long time, on so many different issues. The more of something I see on the bourse , the less I want it 🤷‍♂️. Ultimately the same holds true with any coin, the nicest examples will always perform the average ones.

Edit- forgot to add that I ABSOLUTELY LOVE the classic head branch mint coins.,.like I said it’s mainly a design thing for me.

@PeakRarities said:

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@yspsales said:
Wonder what other discoveries are waiting to be made?

This might very well be a "discovery" -- we don't know. Only those who own the Fairmont Collection/Hoard and probably SB do...and nobody is talking.

For all we know...a bunch of collectors could have been collecting pre-1933 U.S. gold from all those WE BUY GOLD AND SILVER shops we all see....maybe thrown in other stray collections/accumulations....and passed it off as one giant homogenous hoard. Unlikely...but not impossible.

The Fairmont Collection is estimated to be 9 tons of gold (!) so it's not like a few old people died with safe deposit boxes in some European bank and the bank is selling it off as one big collection. It's MASSIVE....10x the size of the El Salvador 1983 Hoard and 20x the size of the 1908 NM Saint Hoard (1996), at least in terms of pieces.

The one counterpoint to that is how the majority of the gold really does have it’s own “fairmont look”, which many collectors are actually tired of. I likesd that this wasn’t the typical green-gold, but regardless, this caliber of provenance on this coin being “repatriated” raises some questions…

Who could be tired of the Fairmont look? Apart from any of the other considerations, the coins stand on their own. I think the coins are overwhelmingly very attractive. It's hard to find unmolested gold with a nice crust.

Beautiful coins.

I love this post so much - and sorry @Mr Lindy for not writing back sooner! As a new member to the boards its not yet in my mental norm to be checking for messages. But I am glad I saw this one.

I will attach a photo of the cent with imbedded washer so you can have a closer look. I love the idea that it might be a brockage....but the idea of cracking it out and separating them is for some reason scary! I like them bonded, but you're right that theres no better or worse between bonded and mated, other than maybe personal preference. I love the playing with them aspect you described. Its very interactive. I like that this one is bonded because its very unusual to see the two pieces as one like this, even if it is entombed in a plastic coffin.

I will also upload something else from my collection. A Canadian cent with a bonded Costa Rica planchet within it. I love dramatic, weird, and exciting errors. Glad to be here to share (thanks to @Byers for connecting me!)

Thanks for the comment! I hope the photos come through.

Greg

@Mr Lindy said:
Pretty Penny handle image you have there counterbrockage ! 1968S Bonded pair ? I always wondered if the holey bonded blank was actually a struck coin ? San Fran made some thought provoking errors half century ago.
If you crack it out & drop in on a safe surface a few dozen or hundred times they may separate and reveal a brockage. not a blank. As I have done this the sound changes as they begin to separate, just saying from experience, but then its no longer bonded. What's better ? Bonded or mated ?

Mated pairs are always most fun to mate and separate. You lose that interactive option when errors get entombed.

This is my favorite informative forum, truly numismatic big tent, enjoy the ride !

Lindy

@counterbrockage said:
The uncancelled Costa Rica Proof Obverse Die is such an incredible find. Someone either needs to put that in a museum, or build a museum just for it. Either way, it will be exciting to see where it ends up next.

And hi all, I am Greg Bennick: long time error / counterstamp collector and someone who has never really been on this chat board before. Excited to be involved.

@skier07 said:
Take a look at a common Dahlonega date. The prices has gone up. The $5000 price is for the only CAC date.

That's what DW has stressed. There wasn't enough QUALITY Dahlonega or Charlotte coins so Fairmont (within reason) is a plus for meeting demand and actually broadening the market (similar to SSCA and Type 1 DE's 20 years ago).

Ditto CC gold being able to be absorbed, too.

OTOH, you could get "Fairmonted" with the other mints and other denominations if they already were well-supplied.

Here's the chart showing guestimated volumes from all the mints. Notice the D, C, and CC totals:

@skier07 said:
DW has said that the market can absorb the more common Fairmont coins but the rare more thinly traded dates >valuations will be adversely impacted.

True...but even coins that were "Fairmonted" and took a price hit did bounce back within a few months or a year or so.

The problem has been that the buyers are now afraid of the proverbial another shoe to drop with MORE of the coins coming out. You don't know if a rare pop is going to have 5 newcomers (manageable) or 50 (a problem). The expectation is that the best coins have been sold first...but who knows ?

Lots of great posts at DW's site on the price impact of the Fairmont hoard and the guest blogger Richard Radick has done some fantastic analyses of the hoard. If anybody reads the (so far) 6-part analysis, let me know how he suddenly came up with 400,000 coins for the total hoard size. It seemed to come out of nowhere and I went back and read the relevant sections again and still didn't see where the number came from (he was actually discussing Type 1 $5 pieces when he segued into a chart showing the 400K coins).

A Christmas Day hike