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Tracking Prices: 25th Anniversary San Francisco and Reverse Proof
rodzm
Posts: 675 ✭
For those wondering about prices and the trends so far in prices of the S coin and Reverse Proof Ill be taking completed sales on Ebay for MS60 and MS70 coins from both TPGs. Charts will be posted depending on available time frames of 7-10 days, more if the data set is limited. Here are the latest trends for the prices. Please note that averages are graphed and the amounts shown below are the completed sales for that period.
Starting off is PCGS in MS69 and MS70
NGC averages in MS69 and MS70:
looks like MS69s for both grading companies are trading for about the same with PCGS taking an avrage lead on the 70s of over $100.
Starting off is PCGS in MS69 and MS70
NGC averages in MS69 and MS70:
looks like MS69s for both grading companies are trading for about the same with PCGS taking an avrage lead on the 70s of over $100.
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Comments
It'll be interesting to see what happens when these start to dry up.
Thanks for the graphs.
Whatever you are, be a good one. ---- Abraham Lincoln
<< <i>Thanks...but you need to refine your graph, separate the rev. proofs from the "S." Also, there are so many variables involved...i/e Flag Label FS, Merconti label, Tombstone labels, non FS Labels and Early Release labels are all selling for different amounts for the same grade. >>
<< <i>Thanks...but you need to refine your graph, separate the rev. proofs from the "S." Also, there are so many variables involved...i/e Flag Label FS, Merconti label, Tombstone labels, non FS Labels and Early Release labels are all selling for different amounts for the same grade. >>
Im not taking into account all the variables as putting together the data will be very time consuming. This is just to show a general trend of the coins and the averages of each. The graphs are actually separated for each type of coin. I think eventually the label premium will not matter much but we'll see.
Here are the reverse proof NGC PF69 and PF70. PCGS to follow:
Thanks for the info!
<< <i>I think eventually the label premium will not matter much but we'll see. >>
Well, I disagree ... If history is a guide..aka..20th Anniv. Set, UHR or the 2008 rev. of 2007, the labels do carry a substantial premium.
<< <i>
<< <i>I think eventually the label premium will not matter much but we'll see. >>
Well, I disagree ... If history is a guide..aka..20th Anniv. Set, UHR or the 2008 rev. of 2007, the labels do carry a substantial premium. >>
Rod is talking about the difference between tombstone, Mercanti, and flag labels I think. All of those are "first strike" 70 labels and IMO the price difference between the three will eventually collapse. The difference between FS and non-FS labels though is clearly with us from now until collectors no longer care about the designation
this is likely explained by the large premium initially paid for the flag S ms70s when that label hit the market - this demand for flags at any cost has dissapated and they now sell for a modest premium over the other FS labels. In the initial frenzy,I sold one at $700 and one at $800 to folks that had to have them NOW.....
<< <i>
<< <i>I think eventually the label premium will not matter much but we'll see. >>
Well, I disagree ... If history is a guide..aka..20th Anniv. Set, UHR or the 2008 rev. of 2007, the labels do carry a substantial premium. >>
What i meant was Mercanti, Tpmbstone and Flag labels. Obviously for something as significant as UHR, 20th Anniversary and 2008 Rec of 07 the label will matter, same with a simple Eliasberg label or any known pedigree. Do a little research and you will notice that right now raw key coins are selling for about the same price as 69s and sometimes for a higher price than 69s. In the end with this issue a simple flag, tombstone or Mercanti label will not matter. Hell people will be buying up whatever is out there when it comes to the key coins.
As more flag labels become available they will be bought for a higher price but when everything settles it will not matter whether you have a Mercanti or a Flag as the keys will clearly be seen as such and not a label. PCGS coins will sell for higher than NGC but comparing apples to apples prices will be similar all around.
<< <i>Wow, 15% decline for PCGS 70 S from 12/13, $600 to 12/29, $519.04, that ain't good. Everything else appears to be in relative steady state, judging by the scale. this is likely explained by the large premium initially paid for the flag S ms70s when that label hit the market - this demand for flags at any cost has dissapated and they now sell for a modest premium over the other FS labels. In the initial frenzy,I sold one at $700 and one at $800 to folks that had to have them NOW..... >>
And this is what Im talking about. The premiums for flag, Tombstone and Mercanti will fade away and we're already seeing that. Hell i can tell you right now that is the case because Ive bought several "S" coins in MS69 in the last 2 weeks between the ranges of $230 and $260 and still continue to see them in those ranges. This is for flag lables, Mercantis and even traditional labels. The averages right now are about $250 for them so there really is no premium for any of the gimmick labels
Looks like NGC coins are giving a better return and PCGS is not giving nearly as good a return. Most of the NGC coins seem to be performing well and most seem to be showing a slow upward trend while PCGS is tending to start high and drop in prices. The only exception is the Reverse Proof PCGS 70 which looks to be somewhat stable. Is it just me or does the NGC coins seem to be a better value
San Francisco NGC:
Reverse Proof NGC:
San Francisco PCGS:
Reverse Proof PCGS:
Box of 20
<< <i>The Gold UHR at 100K mintage trades now about 3 times it is initial cost from the mint in MS70. i wonder if the same will apply to these anniversary coins? >>
I posted on anothetr forum about something i noticed from Eric Jordan's book. Perhaps he can give more insight on it but it is eerily similar to what is happening right now. Basically I dont think this set will behave any different than what has been witnessed time and time again when a mint issue spikes reall high stabilizes and takes off.. One very telling sign of where we are at right now in terms of pricing is shown in Eric Jordan's book concerning coins and their prices following initial issue and sold out. Notice the chart starts off at issue price inidicated by the #1 on the left. Notice the huge spike in the beginning even with an abundance of the coins on the market.
As many of us witnessed the initial spike brought prices of the set to 3x issue price. AQs shown in this picture the spike should hit the high at around the 6-8 month mark but in the sets case that spike hit quite a bit sooner which brings us now to sets selling around 2x issue price. Again this happened quite a bit faster than what the graph shows but I believe this was due to the nature of the offering and the coins being sold out so quickly so the events shown on the graph will be shown at a faster pace. If we extrapolate the first two stages of the spike and sudden drop we should only stay in a short stabilization period for only a few months. After this is passed and all invetory gets bought up then we will see another spike close to 3x issue price for the sets. and from there on out we should expect to see over a 4x issue price for the sets. No telling how long this will take but being that all these stages are happening so quickly we should definitely be hitting 4 to 5x issue price within thenext 1-2 years. Perhaps even higher than 4-5 issue price
Just a little suggestion. I notice that your x-axis is quit difficult to read because there are sometimes more than one data point per day.
It add noise to the graph if you treat the x-axis as a "time" scale.
I think it would be very nice if you could use the average daily price so that there is only 1 point for each date, and the x-axis scale will be more consistent.
<< <i>Nice work rodzm!
Just a little suggestion. I notice that your x-axis is quit difficult to read because there are sometimes more than one data point per day.
It add noise to the graph if you treat the x-axis as a "time" scale.
I think it would be very nice if you could use the average daily price so that there is only 1 point for each date, and the x-axis scale will be more consistent. >>
Thanks for the suggestion...truthfully Im a noob when it comes to doing charts on excel and doing the whole average thing. Ill probably play with it using your suggestion to see if i get a better view. It seems to me even with the noise that The trend seems to be giving the edge to NGC on a better return at least for the moment. Who knows but perhaps PCGS coins will perform better long term and NGC coins level off.
Thanks again for your suggestions
What do you consider "issue price" for individual "S" and "RP" coins?
As rough estimate if we just take melt for other 3 coins they were roughly $100 which leaves $200 for the remaining two divided in half
So I roughly assume the issue price for "S" and "RP" is $100 each (in reality I think it's less)
Now we already have seen $800-1000 prices for both "S" and "RP" 70 coins which means they cleared 10X + issue prices in the first 2 months and now in the "valley" of Eric's chart
And it may take quite some time to come back to the initial peak to fetch 10x again
The same logic is true for the full sets. With initial issue price of $300 they've seen $2K+ prices for single 70 graded sets which was roughly 7X issue prices
The last few auctions I see for Mercanti sets in 70 both went around $1475. The last few auctions for full Flag sets went for less than that. Actually, surprisingly few sales for whole sets, as most people are selling singles so these observations are done without much data (and there are many factors, like ending time, etc), but still.
Single Flag coins are still trending higher than their Mercanti counterparts. I expect that disparity to disappear too.
Just another example to buy the good stuff at the cheapest possible and not worry too much about the label game (though of course, we are talking about FS labels here).
<< <i>I like this analysis and agree with Eric's approach but I would like to play devil's advocate here
What do you consider "issue price" for individual "S" and "RP" coins?
As rough estimate if we just take melt for other 3 coins they were roughly $100 which leaves $200 for the remaining two divided in half
So I roughly assume the issue price for "S" and "RP" is $100 each (in reality I think it's less)
Now we already have seen $800-1000 prices for both "S" and "RP" 70 coins which means they cleared 10X + issue prices in the first 2 months and now in the "valley" of Eric's chart
And it may take quite some time to come back to the initial peak to fetch 10x again
The same logic is true for the full sets. With initial issue price of $300 they've seen $2K+ prices for single 70 graded sets which was roughly 7X issue prices >>
Makes things interesting to play devil's advocate. To me the analysis shown by Eric is for single issued coins or in this case a set. You cant really price something like this because of the nature of the offering. the S and RP coins are a monster themself and to gauge an actual "issue" price is impossible since they were sold as part of a set. If you really want to figure in an issue price you can probably break the set down like this:
Bullion: $35
S Uncirc: $50
W Uncirc $50
Proof: $60
RP:$60
$45 for the packaging
Roughly $300 for the set. As you can see though it is impossible to gauge an issue price for them. As far as using Eric Jordan's analysis on the separate coins this is also impossible to gauge, the same goes with gauging prices on graded sets and coins. I believe the analysis was based on ungraded single issued coins/sets and not on separate coins from a set. It would be interesting to get a performance analysis on graded material
<< <i>I have mostly been watching PCGS S mints and sets in 70. Seems that over the last few days especially the price disparity between flags and Mercantis (and Tombstones to some degree) has been on the decline. As many of us guessed, this disparity would dissapear with time and it looks like it's already happening. The last few auctions I see for Mercanti sets in 70 both went around $1475. The last few auctions for full Flag sets went for less than that. Actually, surprisingly few sales for whole sets, as most people are selling singles so these observations are done without much data (and there are many factors, like ending time, etc), but still. Single Flag coins are still trending higher than their Mercanti counterparts. I expect that disparity to disappear too. Just another example to buy the good stuff at the cheapest possible and not worry too much about the label game (though of course, we are talking about FS labels here). >>
I took a peek earlier today and compared Mercanti and Flag sets and also noticed Mercantis selling for more than flag labels. As expected this disparity is happening and the different labels such as Mercanti and Flag will pretty much disappear. Hell non-FS coins may end up selling close to FS coins
<< <i>
I took a peek earlier today and compared Mercanti and Flag sets and also noticed Mercantis selling for more than flag labels. As expected this disparity is happening and the different labels such as Mercanti and Flag will pretty much disappear. Hell non-FS coins may end up selling close to FS coins >>
Yup. In fact, it seems that whole Mercanti sets have actually been pretty good gainers. Just a few weeks ago these could easily be had for well under $1300 and now they are trending near $1500 on the bay. Not bad for a few weeks time! Nice work to those who bought the less-desired sets on the cheap.
<< <i>So, which do you guys feel will perform better in the future. Keeping the sets whole or selling of the three non-keys today and just keep the two keys? >>
All of the coins in these sets should be going for a premium in the long term but obviously there are a couple of champions. I don't think you could do too bad by having a set or two of all and then concentrating on the keys. Then it comes down to the grade. Some folks here---particularly Overdate--have really been championing 69s. I think they have some good points and we'll have to see how it plays out.
I think it'd be interesting to stockpile S and Ps in NGC or PCGS 69 holders.
<< <i>
<< <i>So, which do you guys feel will perform better in the future. Keeping the sets whole or selling of the three non-keys today and just keep the two keys? >>
All of the coins in these sets should be going for a premium in the long term but obviously there are a couple of champions. I don't think you could do too bad by having a set or two of all and then concentrating on the keys. Then it comes down to the grade. Some folks here---particularly Overdate--have really been championing 69s. I think they have some good points and we'll have to see how it plays out.
I think it'd be interesting to stockpile S and Ps in NGC or PCGS 69 holders. >>
Agreed that all of these should have a bright future. However, I would only stockpile 69s if you love the coins and like having them in slabs. As investments, I think the market has it right, and certified 69s are doomed to merely track the price of picked over, opened sets. Do you realize that as of the last PCGS population report, only 1645 coins out of 49,362 (or a little over 3%) have graded less than 69 across all 5 coins and all labels (FS and non-FS)? Although I do not have the NGC census handy, I think the proportion of coins grading below 69 is even less over there, with a lot more coins being graded.
The mint has done such a nice job with these that pretty much everything that is not a perfect 70 is a 69. As a result, in what rational world would a buyer pay a premium over an opened, picked over set (which most knowledgable buyers would assume has been screened for 70s) for a coin that is certified not to be a 70? The good news is that someone who wants a coin that is virtually indistinguishable with the naked eye from a 70 can be acquired in a holder for no extra charge (the price being paid for by the buyer of the 70 sets). The bad news is that, as a stockpiling investment, the certified 69s should never really be worth much more than raw coins that are merely assumed to be 69s, unless for some reason the population of sub 69s suddenly explodes in the future. I guess they should eventually carry a small premium over raw sets since the 3 non-keys at least have their pedigree established, but that really the only premium that should be expected over raw sets going forward. How much do you think the pedigree on those coins will be worth in the future?
You can get two sets of 69s for the price of one 70. If the 69s climb at a higher rate than 70s, as they may because more people can afford to buy into them, you'd be doing better than if you bought a set of 70s.
I honestly don't know which will do better, just discussing the other side. I've probably missed some stuff, but I think that's the main gist of it.
<< <i>There are some positive points to buying 69s. If buying on the secondary market, if you're after opened sets, why not just buy a set of 69s for slightly more? You get a PCGS guarantee with it, meaning if they spot up in time, send them back. If you end with spotty raw coins, be preared to take a loss, especially if those are S or Ps. The other nice thing about 69s is that they aren't perfect, which means less chance for unhappy buyers. Yet they are still very nice coins and IMO probably more liquid than raw. Buyers like to know what they're getting and graded coins take that guesswork out of it.
You can get two sets of 69s for the price of one 70. If the 69s climb at a higher rate than 70s, as they may because more people can afford to buy into them, you'd be doing better than if you bought a set of 70s.
I honestly don't know which will do better, just discussing the other side. I've probably missed some stuff, but I think that's the main gist of it. >>
I totally agree with every point you make. In fact, I am seriously thinking about picking up a few myself, since I think the sets will go up over time and this a way to get them in slabs for free.
My only point was that, since very few coins grade below 69, that 69s' value as an investment over raw is really limited to the premium that the "set" pedigree has on the 3 non-keys. I think that the only way 69s climb more than 70s is if raw sets also climb more than 70s, which is a distinct possibility, but is still consistent with my theory that key 69s probably won't carry premiums to raw keys, since the pop reports will lead the market to believe that raw keys ARE 69s, whether or not slabbed. That said, I still actually agree with your point that a 69 set slabbed for free is a way better value to add to a collection than a 70 set whose cost includes a subsidy for the 69s that the submitter had to eat the grading fees on.
<< <i>
My only point was that, since very few coins grade below 69, that 69s' value as an investment over raw is really limited to the premium that the "set" pedigree has on the 3 non-keys. I think that the only way 69s climb more than 70s is if raw sets also climb more than 70s, which is a distinct possibility, but is still consistent with my theory that key 69s probably won't carry premiums to raw keys, since the pop reports will lead the market to believe that raw keys ARE 69s, whether or not slabbed. That said, I still actually agree with your point that a 69 set slabbed for free is a way better value to add to a collection than a 70 set whose cost includes a subsidy for the 69s that the submitter had to eat the grading fees on. >>
<< <i>Is GoldMart's price of $675 for a PCGS 69 set a bargain? >>
It's within spitting distance of the best prices for 69 sets from multiple sources, after taking shipping and credit card fees into account. The debate is over whether 69 sets in general are a bargain, and, as you can see, there are a variety of opinions on the topic, depending on what you seek from the sets.
<< <i>So, which do you guys feel will perform better in the future. Keeping the sets whole or selling of the three non-keys today and just keep the two keys? >>
If you can afford to, I wouldn't sell anything until the hoopla dies down. It's hard to imagine that these sets (or any individual coins coming from the sets) are going to be worth significantly less in a few years (or even a few months) than what they are worth now (although anything is possible on a day-to-day or even week-to week basis), so the downside really seems pretty limited, with significant upside potential, based just on how the 20th Anniversary set has performed. Obviously, anything is possible and I could be dead wrong, but the risk-reward suggests not selling anything now, at least to me. Of course, that really doesn't help if you have a lot of money tied up in them and have bills to pay now. That said, I think it stands to reason that the non-keys will rise and fall with the keys. Whenever you decide to sell, it's fairly easy to look at what the individual coins are going for as compared to the complete sets, and to make your decision regarding splitting up sets accordingly. The "keys' are obviously key, and always will be, but the others identified as coming from the set will always have some premium value to those collecting the sets, as thus should be expected to rise and fall with supply of and demand for the sets in the market.
NGC MS 69 % gain: $232/243.26 for a average gain of 4.6%
NGC MS70 % gain: $355/$372 for a average gain of 4.6%
PCGS MS69 % gain: $244/$249.95 for a average gain of 2.4%
PCGS MS70% gain: declining average, average loss is just over 16% if bought at the $600 range between the dates of 12/11 and 12/16
Taking into account the averages NGC is hands down the winner in percentage gains. This may change in the future because PCGS coins are more accepted than NGC but from a "best bang for your buck" POV NGC is the winner. DYODD and study the markets but if profits is what you want in the future then it may be best to buy two MS69s instead of a 70
<< <i>I'd prefer FS over raw because raw can be picked over but FS are not. >>
You are correct. My point was that in a case such as this, where virtually every coin that is not a 70 is a 69, picked over = 69, hence the market does not place a premium on a certified 69.
<< <i>
<< <i>I'd prefer FS over raw because raw can be picked over but FS are not. >>
You are correct. My point was that in a case such as this, where virtually every coin that is not a 70 is a 69, picked over = 69, hence the market does not place a premium on a certified 69.
What is very attractive of 69 coins is that they can be resubmitted in an attempt to get a 70. Look over the coins and if you dont see anything then it is a good candidate for cracking out. If for any reason the S or RP take off in price then it is worth it to crack out a coin to get that 70. This is the exact reason why Im trying to load up on 69 coins right now while the prices are affordable. There may come a time when a 69 san Francisco may fetch 400 down the line with 70s going for 800. In that case your 69 buy at around 240-250 today and resubmitting it even 2 or 3 times to net you a 70 can prove very profitable.
Even resubmitting 3 times to net a 70 would require spending less than $100 to give you a return of a few hundred dollars.
<< <i>I know my analysis is far from being perfect but on a average long term basis I compared percentage gains between PCGS and NGC both in MS69 and MS70 for the San Francisco coin and concluded the following (if purchased during the low average):
NGC MS 69 % gain: $232/243.26 for a average gain of 4.6%
NGC MS70 % gain: $355/$372 for a average gain of 4.6%
PCGS MS69 % gain: $244/$249.95 for a average gain of 2.4%
PCGS MS70% gain: declining average, average loss is just over 16% if bought at the $600 range between the dates of 12/11 and 12/16
Taking into account the averages NGC is hands down the winner in percentage gains. This may change in the future because PCGS coins are more accepted than NGC but from a "best bang for your buck" POV NGC is the winner. DYODD and study the markets but if profits is what you want in the future then it may be best to buy two MS69s instead of a 70 >>
I love your thoughtful analysis, and do not disagree with anything you are saying. In fact, the only reason PCGS will (or should) carry a big premium to NGC will be if the grading is much harsher, which it has not been to date (except for the non-FS). If the PCGS rate of 70s declines substantially, that will support NGC prices. Due to the significantly higher costs of PCGS grading, PCGS coins has so far been a greater monetary risk, which amplifies your conclusion that NGC has so far been the monetary winner for the submitters. I still stand behind what I think about the 69s, however, insofar as they will do as well or poorly as the raw sets, since all they really are are raw sets plus a "set" pedigree for the non-keys. If you include raw, opened S-mint coins in your analysis, you'll probably see that the 69s performed less well than them, due to the market realizing that very few coins from both TPGs grade below 69. Going forward, graded 69s should closely track raw, ungraded coins. When you buy a graded S-mint 69 today, you get two things: (1) a free slab; and (2) a TPG guarantee that your coin is not a 70.
Here is the San Francisco NGC coins in both MS69 and 70:
San Francisco PCGS:
Reverse Proof PCGS:
<< <i>When you buy a graded S-mint 69 today, you get two things: (1) a free slab; and (2) a TPG guarantee that your coin is not a 70. >>
Hum, like no one has ever re-submitted a coin and got a higer grade. The TPG are guarenteeing the coin isn't less than a 69 or they will pay the difference. However, after reviewing you 69 coin, you could submit it and it could end up in a 70 slab.
<< <i>
<< <i>When you buy a graded S-mint 69 today, you get two things: (1) a free slab; and (2) a TPG guarantee that your coin is not a 70. >>
Hum, like no one has ever re-submitted a coin and got a higer grade. The TPG are guarenteeing the coin isn't less than a 69 or they will pay the difference. However, after reviewing you 69 coin, you could submit it and it could end up in a 70 slab. >>
Agreed, but the same is true of a picked over raw coin.
<< <i>The 69 coins have a big advantage over the opened boxes: the word "Set". Is it worth it? Maybe >>
Well, it's certainly an advantage, the question is how "big" it is! The market thus far is saying, "not much" by making graded 69 sets available, in quantity from multiple sources, at basically the same prices as opened raw sets, with unopened sets that hold the likelihood of yielding a few 70s selling for a modest premium. I have said before that it is clear that graded 69s are definitely the way to go if you don't care about owning 70s, since you basically get them slabbed for free. As investments, however, I think we agree that the only premium they are ever going to have going forward (unless tons of coins start grading below 69, which seems unlikely) is going to be the premium, if any, that the market awards the 3 non-keys with the "set" pedigree. Thus far, that premium does not exist.
I don't know enough to have an opinion one way or the other on what the future will hold, but those who broke up sets to have the 2 keys graded have voted with their wallets, as are everyone who is presently selling graded 69 sets for the same price as opened, raw sets.
<< <i>
<< <i>The 69 coins have a big advantage over the opened boxes: the word "Set". Is it worth it? Maybe >>
Well, it's certainly an advantage, the question is how "big" it is! The market thus far is saying, "not much" by making graded 69 sets available, in quantity from multiple sources, at basically the same prices as opened raw sets, with unopened sets that hold the likelihood of yielding a few 70s selling for a modest premium. I have said before that it is clear that graded 69s are definitely the way to go if you don't care about owning 70s, since you basically get them slabbed for free. As investments, however, I think we agree that the only premium they are ever going to have going forward (unless tons of coins start grading below 69, which seems unlikely) is going to be the premium, if any, that the market awards the 3 non-keys with the "set" pedigree. Thus far, that premium does not exist.
I don't know enough to have an opinion one way or the other on what the future will hold, but those who broke up sets to have the 2 keys graded have voted with their wallets, as are everyone who is presently selling graded 69 sets for the same price as opened, raw sets. >>
Im sure that Im not the only one who is loading up on the key 69s at the cheaper price. A 69 is so close to a 70 that it is worth it to buy up the keys in 69 grade. Think about it...you buy a 69 coin for $250 and they increase to 300 or 350. You have a gain and can still keep the coin depending on if you want to take a stab at a higher grade. If the keys in 70 go for 700 or 800 you can resubmit that 69 multiple times perhaps 2,3 or 4 times to try for a 70. Thats only about 100 bucks in fees which puts your total cost to include grades at $350. If you net a 70 grade in one of those submissions you can then sell the coin for twice as much. Rinse and repeat and you get my point
<< <i>
<< <i>The 69 coins have a big advantage over the opened boxes: the word "Set". Is it worth it? Maybe >>
Well, it's certainly an advantage, the question is how "big" it is! The market thus far is saying, "not much" by making graded 69 sets available, in quantity from multiple sources, at basically the same prices as opened raw sets, with unopened sets that hold the likelihood of yielding a few 70s selling for a modest premium. I have said before that it is clear that graded 69s are definitely the way to go if you don't care about owning 70s, since you basically get them slabbed for free. As investments, however, I think we agree that the only premium they are ever going to have going forward (unless tons of coins start grading below 69, which seems unlikely) is going to be the premium, if any, that the market awards the 3 non-keys with the "set" pedigree. Thus far, that premium does not exist.
I don't know enough to have an opinion one way or the other on what the future will hold, but those who broke up sets to have the 2 keys graded have voted with their wallets, as are everyone who is presently selling graded 69 sets for the same price as opened, raw sets. >>
I'm seeing price differentiation in the MS70 bullion coin, set vs. non-set.
Flag without set goes for $105
Flag with set goes for $183.50
And the Mercanti's are showing surprising strength, going for $220 to $250. Don't know if this will continue, and I haven't looked to see if the same is going on for the MS69s.
oops...they just went down in price..$2299...a great deal..or not..??!!
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The 69 coins have a big advantage over the opened boxes: the word "Set". Is it worth it? Maybe >>
Well, it's certainly an advantage, the question is how "big" it is! The market thus far is saying, "not much" by making graded 69 sets available, in quantity from multiple sources, at basically the same prices as opened raw sets, with unopened sets that hold the likelihood of yielding a few 70s selling for a modest premium. I have said before that it is clear that graded 69s are definitely the way to go if you don't care about owning 70s, since you basically get them slabbed for free. As investments, however, I think we agree that the only premium they are ever going to have going forward (unless tons of coins start grading below 69, which seems unlikely) is going to be the premium, if any, that the market awards the 3 non-keys with the "set" pedigree. Thus far, that premium does not exist.
I don't know enough to have an opinion one way or the other on what the future will hold, but those who broke up sets to have the 2 keys graded have voted with their wallets, as are everyone who is presently selling graded 69 sets for the same price as opened, raw sets. >>
Im sure that Im not the only one who is loading up on the key 69s at the cheaper price. A 69 is so close to a 70 that it is worth it to buy up the keys in 69 grade. Think about it...you buy a 69 coin for $250 and they increase to 300 or 350. You have a gain and can still keep the coin depending on if you want to take a stab at a higher grade. If the keys in 70 go for 700 or 800 you can resubmit that 69 multiple times perhaps 2,3 or 4 times to try for a 70. Thats only about 100 bucks in fees which puts your total cost to include grades at $350. If you net a 70 grade in one of those submissions you can then sell the coin for twice as much. Rinse and repeat and you get my point >>
Absolutely, and I have been very seriously considering doing the same, only with complete sets, since I also think that once the dust settles the "set" pedigreed non-keys will sell for some premium whereas now they can be had for the same price as an opened, picked over set. I have also been thinking about trying to submit for a 70, but I have my doubts, since there are already so many 70s. The only coins that seem to be clear candidates for an upgrade are the non-FS PCGS ones, since they seem to have graded so much lower than FS and NGC coins.
I am taking it on faith that something kept the FS and NGC 69s from grading 70 (although I agree with you that in many cases it is impossible to tell the difference with the naked eye), and that they will keep pulling 69. I still think they have potential insofar as I think raw sets will also go up. I also think it's hard to go wrong when you can get a coin slabbed and graded 69 by PCGS for free (even with free autographs
By the way, you didn't include raw coins in your charts. Am I correct that the ungraded ones have done even better than the 69s from the lows up to the present? If so, it makes the 69s an even better deal, relatively speaking, now.
<< <i>My own perspective is that the RP and S 69s are soft or flat temporarily as flippers are selling off their 69s to cover costs and keeping their 70s. Like the '06 20th anniversary sets, a lot of eBay sales will continue through the next few years, but over time we'll see fewer offerings. At that point there will be two entry points for new investors: 69 and 70. Those who can't afford the higher price tags of the 70s over $800 a pop will be happy to get a 69 between $3-500. Just my take. >>
I agree with you that 69s will rise over time (as will raw sets) as the offerings thin out in the future and demand hopefully stays steady. Do you agree with my point, which is that, since very few of these coins grade below 69, that 69s should not and will not carry a premium over raw, other than the premium that the non-keys get for having the "set" pedigree?