Armchair Futurists Weigh in

stevereecy · June 26, 2011 10:41PM

Hey folks,

Can't sleep at night thinking about these stupid Chinese Fake coins. Whenever I think about what the future holds, I see people living on the moon, flying cars, and no more coin collecting because the people of the future got burned so many times on Chinese fakes that it killed the hobby.

Sure, we can all buy slabbed coins, but the slabs themselves are being faked. And some coins just aren't conducive to slabbing for economic reasons. I have a bunch of $3 jefferson nickels that I love...if they start faking them (and the probably have) then I'm doomed.

Is this how you see the future? What are we gonna do?

Steve

astrorat · June 26, 2011 10:45PM

If the biggest worry about the future is for your $3 Jeffersons ... then you are doing okay.

Lewy · June 26, 2011 11:01PM

How does anyone even know that anything is being counterfeited? If nobody knows, then there is no problem....... If it can definitively be determined that counterfeits exist, then someone has made that determination....... only the educated will be able to tell the difference...... do not sit and fret because you see yourself as a potential victim.......... educate yourself on what is real and what isn't....... knowledge is power and only you can arm yourself with that power.

PerryHall · June 26, 2011 11:04PM

<< How does anyone even know that anything is being counterfeited? If nobody knows, then there is no problem....... If it can definitively be determined that counterfeits exist, then someone has made that determination....... only the educated will be able to tell the difference...... do not sit and fret because you see yourself as a potential victim.......... educate yourself on what is real and what isn't....... knowledge is power and only you can arm yourself with that power. >>

Not everyone has the time or inclination to become an expert authenticator.

Lewy · June 26, 2011 11:09PM

Heh, if it keeps you awake at night, you had better FIND the time.

stevereecy · June 26, 2011 11:20PM

In microcosm, ya'll might have crystalized my fear through apathy.

If the people who start out collecting $3 Jeffersons get burned, they won't move on to the $1,000 coins...then who you gonna sell to?

And if the learning curve is so steep that you have to be a crackerjack authenticator, then who is going to collect and buy your $1,000 coins.

I don't know what the ANA is doing about this, but everyone should be extremely concerned about what is going on. If we don't find a way to shut this down through legal channels or otherwise, the coin market is going to die and you guys with the $1,000 coins will be the bagholders. Yep...you can sell to each other as you watch your coins decrease in value year after year.

The only thing I can come up with...from a futurist perspective...is a very, very, cheap service where you can send a coin in to have it authenticated, photographed, and put into some kind of database. It would have to be super cheap and make money on volume. Then we need the ANA to use every bit of its resources to shut down Chinese fakes....stuff like Ebay boycotts, or even threats of setting up their own alternate auction site that will be policed. If we don't do something about this, I think the end is closer than we collectively think it is.

Steve

jhdfla · June 26, 2011 11:25PM

<< Hey folks,

Can't sleep at night thinking about these stupid Chinese Fake coins. Whenever I think about what the future holds, I see people living on the moon, flying cars, and no more coin collecting because the people of the future got burned so many times on Chinese fakes that it killed the hobby.

Sure, we can all buy slabbed coins, but the slabs themselves are being faked. And some coins just aren't conducive to slabbing for economic reasons. I have a bunch of $3 jefferson nickels that I love...if they start faking them (and the probably have) then I'm doomed.

Is this how you see the future? What are we gonna do?

Steve >>

I'm very disappointed actually that we aren't living on the moon (and Mars as well) by this time, it seems our shortsighted leaders felt the money could be used for greater good in other programs (they were so wrong).

Coins being faked are the least of our problems. Overpopulation and degradation of the earth is increasing at such an alarming rate, we may see regimes emerge that make the National Socialists look like pansy's.

I fear more for my children than I do for my coins.

John

BTW, that's a GREAT VW, is it yours?

llafoe · June 26, 2011 11:26PM

I hate when the sky is falling!

astrorat · June 26, 2011 11:35PM

<< In microcosm, ya'll might have crystalized my fear through apathy.

If the people who start out collecting $3 Jeffersons get burned, they won't move on to the $1,000 coins...then who you gonna sell to?

And if the learning curve is so steep that you have to be a crackerjack authenticator, then who is going to collect and buy your $1,000 coins.

I don't know what the ANA is doing about this, but everyone should be extremely concerned about what is going on. If we don't find a way to shut this down through legal channels or otherwise, the coin market is going to die and you guys with the $1,000 coins will be the bagholders. Yep...you can sell to each other as you watch your coins decrease in value year after year.

The only thing I can come up with...from a futurist perspective...is a very, very, cheap service where you can send a coin in to have it authenticated, photographed, and put into some kind of database. It would have to be super cheap and make money on volume. Then we need the ANA to use every bit of its resources to shut down Chinese fakes....stuff like Ebay boycotts, or even threats of setting up their own alternate auction site that will be policed. If we don't do something about this, I think the end is closer than we collectively think it is.

Steve >>

The ANA can really only do two actions. First, they can educate - which is their mission. Much of their education now is from volunteers, not staff numismatists, of which there is 2 or 3. Second, they can remove somebody (or business) as a member - the effect of which will have little bearing on counterfeiters. The ANA has no enforcement responsibility or authority.

ambro51 · June 26, 2011 11:36PM

Hit something hard going 45 in that VW van and you wont have to worry about chinese fakes anymore.

ColonialCoinUnion · June 26, 2011 11:37PM

<< I fear more for my children than I do for my coins. >>

You think this is the first generation that feared the future?

jhdfla · June 26, 2011 11:42PM

<< 

<< I fear more for my children than I do for my coins. >>

You think this is the first generation that feared the future? >>

Nope. One big difference tho, they're MY kids...

RedTiger · June 26, 2011 11:45PM

Fakes are big problem and it is getting worse. Low value coins of all kinds are being reported. High value fake slabs are being moved by the boatload over Ebay and Craigslist to novices looking for bargains. Fewer than 5% of collectors will ever have the skill to authenticate against decent fakes. If the hobby is going to only be 5% of the current collectors, the sky has indeed fallen.

Right now, the best thing to do is to rely on the expertise of reputable expert dealers. Many of them have enough expertise to spot 99.9% of the high volume fakes, whether they be fake slabs or low value foreign minors. The problem is serious. It is highly likely that thousands of fake coins worth millions of dollars are being moved every month. These fakes are migrating to all venues, so venue alone is no longer any protection.

Many collectors still do not even know that there is such a thing as a fake slab. Many still foolishly think that fakes are easy to spot. Yes, a few are easy, such as the ones sold in tourist shops. However, fakes come in varying levels of quality and the top fakes require a top level expert to detect them. If a person talks off the record with some grading company authenticators or others that see high quality fakes, it can be a scary picture.

That said, coin collecting is a hobby. Other hobbies and industries have been ruined already with fakes and altered items (search on the court case Tiffany vs. Ebay). Life goes on. If it gets real bad a person may have to limit themselves to buying direct from the U. S. Mint. It is a hobby, it is supposed to be fun. If a hobby is keeping a person up at night, time to find another hobby.

/edited for typos

stevereecy · June 26, 2011 11:58PM

<< The ANA can really only do two actions. First, they can educate - which is their mission. Much of their education now is from volunteers, not staff numismatists, of which there is 2 or 3. Second, they can remove somebody (or business) as a member - the effect of which will have little bearing on counterfeiters. The ANA has no enforcement responsibility or authority. >>

Does the ANA have lobbying power? We need to organize and we need political clout if we're going to beat this. The sky is indeed falling.

My understanding is that it is legal to own copies of U.S. coins if they appear to be an older coin. We need to get the law changed to where it is illegal to own or distribute any of these coins. My understanding is that I can legally sell fake Morgan Dollars as long as I don't state that they are real. Is that incorrect?

As a group, we should be pressuring the heck out of Ebay. Maybe even taking legal action against them to police better. Perhaps there could be an ANA liasson who can contact Ebay and have auctions pulled.

devious · June 27, 2011 12:02AM

What people don't think about it just how in time, counterfeits will be perfected and thus nobody will be able to detect them. Give it time. But this applies to many counterfeit markets. I call it economic sabotage. They really value "The Art of War" in China. And by applying it, it is working very well.

RedTiger · June 27, 2011 12:08AM

<< 

<< The ANA can really only do two actions. First, they can educate - which is their mission. Much of their education now is from volunteers, not staff numismatists, of which there is 2 or 3. Second, they can remove somebody (or business) as a member - the effect of which will have little bearing on counterfeiters. The ANA has no enforcement responsibility or authority. >>

Does the ANA have lobbying power? We need to organize and we need political clout if we're going to beat this. The sky is indeed falling.

My understanding is that it is legal to own copies of U.S. coins if they appear to be an older coin. We need to get the law changed to where it is illegal to own or distribute any of these coins. My understanding is that I can legally sell fake Morgan Dollars as long as I don't state that they are real. Is that incorrect?

As a group, we should be pressuring the heck out of Ebay. Maybe even taking legal action against them to police better. Perhaps there could be an ANA liasson who can contact Ebay and have auctions pulled. >>

Tiffany lost their 7-year long case against Ebay over fakes. Tiffany likely had a much stronger case than coin collectors, or the ANA, or any grading company, and they lost. Mighty Microsoft and other software vendors lose billions every year to blatant piracy and openly counterfeit software. Microsoft has the best lawyers that money can buy. Good luck with litigation.

19Lyds · June 27, 2011 12:11AM

<< Is this how you see the future? What are we gonna do?

Steve >>

Collect moderns. They are rarely ever faked.

PerryHall · June 27, 2011 12:12AM

<< Heh, if it keeps you awake at night, you had better FIND the time. >>

I have been collecting U.S. gold coins since about 1965. It used to keep me awake at night since counterfeit gold coins were very common in the marketplace and this was before third party grading and authentication services became available. Out of necessity, I learned very quickly how to authenticate coins. I have many counterfeit detection books which I studied in detail and I became very proficient in detecting counterfeits. I sleep very well at night now. Unfortunately, most new collectors won't have the time or interest to become expert authenticators.

MidLifeCrisis · June 27, 2011 12:16AM

<< Can't sleep at night thinking about these stupid Chinese Fake coins. >>

Go take a nap. You'll feel better. Fake coins and fake slabs will still be a problem when you wake up, but a fresh mind may give you some perspective.

scottgardener · June 27, 2011 12:57AM

It will be an arms race of ever-increasing authentication technologies and improved quality fakes. The obviously fake 1922 Morgans on eBay will die off, or they could even become a niche collectible in their own right. The sweat houses of today will be replaced by more sophisticated criminal outfits, using nanotech replicators. PCGS and NGC will have nanite robotic scanning probes that look for replication "fault lines." Their holders will have encryption / decryption chips implanted; collectors and dealers will have software that their wearable or implanted computers can use to interact with the holders, to recognize authentic coins. Hold a coin graded by PCGS after 2028 and you will see in the air above it its CoinFacts information as well as its individual pedigree with comments by previous owners. Coins that report "no information" are flagged as counterfeit, though coins in old pre-2028 holders will have their own cult following, from rattlers and doilys to "pings" (when the PNG logo was on the back of PCGS holders) and other "unshielded" (pre-Secure Plus) "blues."

TwoSides2aCoin · June 27, 2011 1:01AM

I bought a $3 Princess from a gal. It was fake. She won't answer her phone. I try not to be bitter, but I'm coming out today

The Pay Pal Money Market Fund is closing. (just got the email)

Lewy · June 27, 2011 1:08AM

<< Does the ANA have lobbying power? We need to organize and we need political clout if we're going to beat this. >>

Lobbying power equals money...... BIG money....... this is why our elected officials represent lobbyists rather than the folks who elected them... To shelter ourselves from Chinese counterfeiters, the ANA would require more lobbying power than all other U. S. lobbying organizations combined (triillions of $) as this would mean a total embargo of all Chinese imports for any effort to be effective..... the U.S. cannot selectively dictate to an economic superpower like China what businesses will and will not be legal in China...... Utopia is not on the horizon.

yellowkid · June 27, 2011 1:17AM

Fuuggeddaboutit, this is all temporary

jayPem · June 27, 2011 1:33AM

<< It will be an arms race of ever-increasing authentication technologies and improved quality fakes. The obviously fake 1922 Morgans on eBay will die off, or they could even become a niche collectible in their own right. The sweat houses of today will be replaced by more sophisticated criminal outfits, using nanotech replicators. PCGS and NGC will have nanite robotic scanning probes that look for replication "fault lines." Their holders will have encryption / decryption chips implanted; collectors and dealers will have software that their wearable or implanted computers can use to interact with the holders, to recognize authentic coins. Hold a coin graded by PCGS after 2028 and you will see in the air above it its CoinFacts information as well as its individual pedigree with comments by previous owners. Coins that report "no information" are flagged as counterfeit, though coins in old pre-2028 holders will have their own cult following, from rattlers and doilys to "pings" (when the PNG logo was on the back of PCGS holders) and other "unshielded" (pre-Secure Plus) "blues." >>

Improperly Cleaned,

....like the Onion for coins !

kiyote · June 27, 2011 2:42AM

<< 

<< How does anyone even know that anything is being counterfeited? If nobody knows, then there is no problem....... If it can definitively be determined that counterfeits exist, then someone has made that determination....... only the educated will be able to tell the difference...... do not sit and fret because you see yourself as a potential victim.......... educate yourself on what is real and what isn't....... knowledge is power and only you can arm yourself with that power. >>

Not everyone has the time or inclination to become an expert authenticator. >>

Perryhall, exactly. Even if you're 100% certain that your Flowing Hair VF30 dollar in a certified holder is the real deal, the fakes floating around out there will scare off all but the most obsessive handful of buyers.

dcarr · June 27, 2011 5:10AM

The very high-quality Lebanese fakes of US gold Coins in the 1960s still fool a lot of people. But they didn't destroy the coin market, and neither will newer Chinese fakes.

Regarding the future -
The next major change in human lives will start in about 50 years - when humanoid robots start doing all our work for us and humans won't have to work at all any more.

RedTiger · June 27, 2011 5:29AM

<< ...

Regarding the future -
The next major change in human lives will start in about 50 years - when humanoid robots start doing all our work for us and humans won't have to work at all any more. >>

Japan is on the frontier of robotics because of their aging demographics, and social structure. A robotic "janitor" that can do 95% of what human janitors can do, is maybe a decade away in terms of economic break even.

The real leap comes when machines do most of the thinking and decision making as well as the physical work. The Singularity (when machines exceed human intelligence) is coming and what it may bring can far more frightening than the death of another rich-man's hobby.

scottgardener · June 27, 2011 6:22AM

<< The next major change in human lives will start in about 50 years - when humanoid robots start doing all our work for us and humans won't have to work at all any more. >>

That is, until the robots rebel. Then, we'll all be collecting virtual coins, while our brains are plugged into The Matrix.

<< I bought a $3 Princess from a gal. It was fake. >>

The market for raw coins has been pulvarized, and for small gold, it's pretty much toast for anything over $400. I've had a fail rate around 20-25%, so I save all my receipts and buy only from dealers who will guarantee their coins for authenticity and buy back those that get body-bagged by PCGS as "questionable authenticity" or "not genuine." Indian $2.50s are the most heavily counterfeited--I've bought, had graded, and had to return three. Indian $5s are also faked, as are $1s, but after Indian $2.50s, the $3s are among the most counterfeited of gold, because the genuine ones pack a lot of numismatic value over their gold content.

A guide to recognizing the diagnostics of legitimate versus counterfeit gold would be nice--they're out there, and given my own track record, I should make it a point to get a copy--and mostly stick with graded coins. I've considered biting the bullet and keeping coins returned as counterfeit for education purposes, and marking them conspicuously as fake on each side to protect future generations. But, it would be cheaper to get the books.

dogwood · June 27, 2011 6:57AM

<< The real leap comes when machines do most of the thinking and decision making as well as the physical work. The Singularity (when machines exceed human intelligence) is coming and what it may bring can far more frightening than the death of another rich-man's hobby. >>

A well aimed fire hose kills a robot and an evil computer all day long.
Humans must now stockpile mechanical water jets that can't be controlled by computers. Then, plowee!!
Short circuit city!!! We win.

Anyway pedigree coins are safe. Everyman stuff is doomed to major correction due to fakes.

JJM · June 27, 2011 7:00AM

I think at the end of the day, when I hand
my kids 2-4 boxs of twenty and a spreadsheet,
that neither I will have lost money, or they will
be disapointed , hopefully they will keep a few..........

MidLifeCrisis · June 27, 2011 7:03AM

<< Anyway pedigree coins are safe. >>

I'd like to believe this is true...but I'm afraid it would be just as easy to fake a pedigreed coin and its slab.

PerryHall · June 27, 2011 8:26AM

<< 

<< Anyway pedigree coins are safe. >>

I'd like to believe this is true...but I'm afraid it would be just as easy to fake a pedigreed coin and its slab. >>

Agree. Also, the number of coins with a famous pedegree compared to the overall market is quite small. Anyone overly concerned with buying fake or doctored coins can buy directly from the mint who is putting out an increasing number and variety of coins in various metals.

ambro51 · June 27, 2011 9:01AM

The future will all be about not getting killed, having a garden for food to eat and keeping your horse fed.

GregL · June 28, 2011 2:42AM

<< The ANA can really only do two actions. First, they can educate - which is their mission. Much of their education now is from volunteers, not staff numismatists, of which there is 2 or 3. Second, they can remove somebody (or business) as a member - the effect of which will have little bearing on counterfeiters. The ANA has no enforcement responsibility or authority. >>

This is exactly correct. Unfortunately, even if the ANA were to know beyond all reasonable doubt that a certain person is a counterfeiter or coin doctor, it opens the organization up for a lawsuit which -- while it may not have merit -- will be the association dry.

Look at the past five years of legal actions and see how it has benefited the association. Hint: It hasn't.

Greg

GregL · June 28, 2011 2:44AM

<< Does the ANA have lobbying power? We need to organize and we need political clout if we're going to beat this. The sky is indeed falling. >>

Yes, the ANA can lobby the government -- and has done so in a number of areas. What specifically can be lobbied for in this situation may be a bit tricky (it's not as clear cut as whether antiquities should be allowed to be imported) but I will find out how that is done once I join the board in August.

Greg

stevereecy · June 28, 2011 10:41AM

Greg,

Thanks for being a voice on this issue. I'm hazy on the laws, but I believe that it is acceptable to buy or sell coin replicas if their are marked "replica" or copy, ***Or*** if the coin replica is an obsolete coin. (is that right)? Isn't it currently legal to make fake buffalo nickels but not make fake washington quarters?

If so, what I think ya'll should do is lobby to make it illegal to sell copies of obsolete designs that are not properly marked as copies. Perhaps the government would be interested in knowing that they are missing out on coin sales from collectors who are, instead, buying fakes. (i.e, the government's coin sales would go up if fakes were off the market).

If there is a way I can help, or anyone else who cares to volunteer, let us know.

Steve

astrorat · June 28, 2011 11:43AM

<< If so, what I think ya'll should do is lobby to make it illegal to sell copies of obsolete designs that are not properly marked as copies. >>

It already is illegal.

llafoe · June 28, 2011 11:54AM

<< ...and keeping your horse fed. >>

It's not politically correct to have pet names for our spouses any longer!

streeter · June 28, 2011 12:14PM

Chinese 'coins' don't bother me as much as the recent hustle I've seen whereby a person buys a legit key slab and reslabs a coin a grade down. The cert # checks out and you really have to determine if the SLAB is authentic. Sometimes the undergrade coin is legit, sometimes not and it's a slick scam. Going on NOW with slabs sold from BAY AREA seller. Thread awhile back demonstrated the slickster doing it on a 16-D.

golfer72 · June 28, 2011 8:38PM

I am a little more worried about the impending collapse of the US dollar. Fake coins? Eh.

ricko · June 28, 2011 11:14PM

The ANA is basically a toothless organization.... it provides training/educational resources (and does that well), but little else. Coin collecting is a personal hobby, as a general interest, it may or may not survive (such as stamp collecting and beanie babies). As a hobby, it is not critical to survival or life in general, therefore, not high on the list of considerations. It is, of course, of much greater importance to the niche group of people who make their living selling/buying coins. For them, issues such as this, are of paramount importance. Coin colectors are a minority as far as special interest groups are concerned, and not predisposed to activism.
Cheers, RickO

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