Is the Rare Coin Market Poised for a Big Upturn?
dragon
Posts: 4,548 ✭✭
I am starting to get that feeling for some odd reason.......everything from classic rarities to MS64 generic Morgans and everything in between. Do you feel it too?
If not, please tell me why I'm wrong.
If not, please tell me why I'm wrong.
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Comments
<< <i>I am starting to get that feeling for some odd reason.......everything from classic rarities to MS64 generic Morgans and everything in between. Do you feel it too?
If not, please tell me why I'm wrong.
Classic rarities rarely go out of vogue. They are always rare and with currencies depreciating, there is always money looking to buy into them.
And now with silver running up, new demand has surfaced for the once ignored Morgan and Peace dollars. Amazing how silver can
help lift other boats. So I'm not surprised that these 2 areas are showing strength and interest. When MS/PF64-65 type coins start to move again then
I'll be a believer in a market recovery. Until then, silver's going to have to get to $5,000/oz to help lift the price of a PF64 seated half.
roadrunner
I got out a while back because I did not feel i was getting good value for my money. That feeling has not changed. If anything it is worse.
should start recovering and this will push the stock market higher which will severely blunt any move
in collectibles. When a recession becomes predictable (I'd guess autumn of 2016) the stock market
will peak and coins will explode higher. Most coin markets will be fairly stable until this time except
modern world which will do very well. Of course silver is likely to continue higher which will have an
effect in various segments of the coin market.
this email came today.. I have edited much of it off this post since it does not relate to the original posts question.
Albanese said the decision to declare a moratorium doesn’t reflect concern about weakness in the coin market. On the contrary, he said, it stems from a belief that business will soon be much more robust.
“I have a sense that we’re starting to come out of the recession,” he said. “That’s what the government has been saying, and I can see activity picking up in the coin business.
Don't underestimate the power of "investment retailers". Rising bullion and scary politics makes generic gold an easy sell to the uneducated masses, which can lead to higher prices very quickly.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>The market will go down because I am buying for my collection. >>
I was going to say "No, you'll have to wait until after I sell everything. Should be about 15-20 years out."
Empty Nest Collection
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
Too many high-end middle class buyers will be relatively quiet for quite a while.
.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>On the other hand, generic Morgan dollars, and maybe even generic gold, if the bullion price calms down, might be headed for the doldrums. The collectors who support this market are tapped out in this economy, and I don't see it getting better for them in the near term.
Don't underestimate the power of "investment retailers". Rising bullion and scary politics makes generic gold an easy sell to the uneducated masses, which can lead to higher prices very quickly. >>
I agree. And I doubt that the majority of MS61-66 generic gold is placed with collectors. Rather much of it rests with dealers, speculators, and investors. Those that were able to
buy it over the past couple of years probably could afford to buy it as part of their personal hedging programs. I don't think they are tapped out at all.
Just saw a chart today of the dollars invested in the Rydex Gold fund and it's basically barely off a 14 month low after peaking back in November/December 2009. This is exactly what
generic gold has done while gold has continued on from $1225 to $1445 over the same period (and silver from $19 to $36). Gold mining stocks are generally in that same boat as well.
I guess they are all looking for the next "reason" to break out of a 1 yr funk. Each year gold has been predicted to be heading for the doldrums and for each of the past 10 yrs that's been proven to be wrong. Here comes the 11th opportunity to get the call right.
roadrunner
The Heritage auctions continue to do well.
Bear's Barber halves brought strong money on Ebay yesterday. No surprise there I guess!
My wholesale dealer no-BS pal who deals in a wide range of raw and slabbed material did very well at FUN, he did well at the Lakeland, Melbourne, and Ft Lauderdale shows, he did well at the ANA, and he's psych'd for Baltimore, as he always does well there.
The show reports from New Jersey have been just short of 'nuclear', and reports this weekend from Minn and Maine were good as well.
Shows in the East, West, North, South, and the auctions all seem to indicate a pretty good market......maybe I'm naive, but I do have some data on my side.
Needless to say the stuff at Heritage just blew me out of the water before the auction.
not until this bullion craze has run its course.
own as if waiting to catch its breath in an uncertain economic environment. The number of revolutions
as well as minor wars could well expand into a full scale blow out over the next 12 months.I really see
no big blow off in pricing in the coin market. Slow and steady might be the pass word. Do not bet the farm
on instant wealth.
Camelot
Nice coins are selling well.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
The high quality fakes from China , along with the economy going down so fast, have left alot of us
thinking seriously about where the collector coin market is heading . We will see a 40 % decrease in values
over the next 12 months , across the board on anything with numismatic value.
The smart collectors are cashing in now (or better yet last year), and putting that money into silver.
Also, I am seeing alot of guys selling off their gold and turning around and buying silver
(also very smart, but something that should have been done 12 months ago).
Most people feel silver will enjoy a much more aggressive upswing than gold (and they are right).
Lewis
He told me last week the set is for sale . I asked him why sell, since he was so passionate about Barbers .
He explained to me that 2 years from now, that set will be worth half of what it is now. He also said he plans to put the money into
10 oz silver bars and feels that two years from now, those silver bars will be worth twice what they are today.
I tend to agree . He said it's all a matter of common sense . He said he would rather be holding something that will
gain several thousand dollars in value , than be holding somethin that will be loosing thousands of dollars in value.
To have a strong collector market , you have to have alot of collectors, collectors who feel good about spending lots of money
on coins . In these tough economic times , their will be less and less collectors who are going to feel good about
paying ever increasing prices . And, their is no doubt that the economy will continue to get worse .
Their will be fewer and fewer buyers of coins , which means fewer bidders at auctions, lower hammer prices etc.
Their will be a greater supply and less demand .
When your daughter just lost her job and is 1 month away from loosing her home , paying $ 50k for a coin doesn't sound like such a great idea anymore.
Your priorities change , as the world around you changes.
Lewis
<< <i>I think many seasoned collectors are planing an exit strategy from most numismatic coins.
The high quality fakes from China , along with the economy going down so fast, have left alot of us
thinking seriously about where the collector coin market is heading . We will see a 40 % decrease in values
over the next 12 months , across the board on anything with numismatic value.
The smart collectors are cashing in now (or better yet last year), and putting that money into silver.
Also, I am seeing alot of guys selling off their gold and turning around and buying silver
(also very smart, but something that should have been done 12 months ago).
Most people feel silver will enjoy a much more aggressive upswing than gold (and they are right).
Lewis >>
Although I am also concerned about Chinese fakes, I don't think you're correct about a 40% decrease in values. On the off chance you are correct, I will triple my annual buying.
<< <i>A good friend recently finished his AU Barber half set , a feat that took him over 8 years to complete.
He told me last week the set is for sale . I asked him why sell, since he was so passionate about Barbers .
He explained to me that 2 years from now, that set will be worth half of what it is now. He also said he plans to put the money into
10 oz silver bars and feels that two years from now, those silver bars will be worth twice what they are today.
I tend to agree . He said it's all a matter of common sense . He said he would rather be holding something that will
gain several thousand dollars in value , than be holding somethin that will be loosing thousands of dollars in value.
To have a strong collector market , you have to have alot of collectors, collectors who feel good about spending lots of money
on coins . In these tough economic times , their will be less and less collectors who are going to feel good about
paying ever increasing prices . And, their is no doubt that the economy will continue to get worse .
Their will be fewer and fewer buyers of coins , which means fewer bidders at auctions, lower hammer prices etc.
Their will be a greater supply and less demand .
When your daughter just lost her job and is 1 month away from loosing her home , paying $ 50k for a coin doesn't sound like such a great idea anymore.
Your priorities change , as the world around you changes. You mean losing right, not loosing?
Lewis >>
<< <i>A good friend recently finished his AU Barber half set , a feat that took him over 8 years to complete.
He told me last week the set is for sale . I asked him why sell, since he was so passionate about Barbers .
He explained to me that 2 years from now, that set will be worth half of what it is now. He also said he plans to put the money into
10 oz silver bars and feels that two years from now, those silver bars will be worth twice what they are today.
I tend to agree . He said it's all a matter of common sense . He said he would rather be holding something that will
gain several thousand dollars in value , than be holding somethin that will be loosing thousands of dollars in value.
To have a strong collector market , you have to have alot of collectors, collectors who feel good about spending lots of money
on coins . In these tough economic times , their will be less and less collectors who are going to feel good about
paying ever increasing prices . And, their is no doubt that the economy will continue to get worse .
Their will be fewer and fewer buyers of coins , which means fewer bidders at auctions, lower hammer prices etc.
Their will be a greater supply and less demand .
When your daughter just lost her job and is 1 month away from loosing her home , paying $ 50k for a coin doesn't sound like such a great idea anymore.
Your priorities change , as the world around you changes.
Lewis >>
Valid points, but no one, but no one knows the future. The time to load up on silver was at $4 or $7 long ago, or even $18 just 13 months ago. At $36 and up 10x from the lows it might be like buying real estate at the 2004 peak or dot com stocks in early 2000 at their peak. Impossible to tell if silver will end up as badly, but late comers to the game loading up heavy at these prices certainly take on that kind of risk. If a person could predict silver prices he/she would have already made a boat load of money and not need to sell numismatic coins to load up on 10 ounce bars at record high prices.
As for counterfeits it is a discouraging problem. There is a flood of fakes coming in and appearing in virtually all venues. I don't trust any coin 100% any more. I lean more heavily on expert dealers. It is not a good feeling.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If the price of gold bullion drops, the price of generic gold is going to crash. There can be no disputing that.
And if this economy keeps treating the middle class as badly as it has over past couple years, there will be less demand for "widgets."
the short answer is, I don't see any booms in the immediate future except for bullion. And if bullion is good, chances are the rest of economy will be bad.
<< <i>I think the bullion crazy has spawned an entire new demographic of collector/investor who is now doing the bulk of the buying in the market. I have been supplying bullion to these guys for the last 2 yrs, as this was all that was moving, but almost w/o exception each one of my bullion buyers slowly became Morgan/Peace dollar collectors, asking for graded dollars instead of cull. Next thing I know I'm seeing them at coin shows and now they're calling me looking to buy high grade DMPL's and coins of which they had never heard of 2 yrs ago. I think the same bug that bit us many years ago has now bitten all these new-to-coins silver and gold buyers who are now unloading the cull they did well on and are buying collector coins with the enthusiastic zeal we all had back in the day. My guess is this movement will blossom and continue to push prices higher.....or not. :-) >>
Welcome aboard.
Profit is a powerful inducement to get people interested in the hobby.
But I can't see a general uptrend in the near future even if metals continue
to advance. As BillJones says the middle class is under pressure so the more
mundane coins are not poised for gains now. Rare and high quality coins, and
the sorts of things that have been hot should continue to do well as long as
metals keep going up.
It's possible with the improvement in the economy that we'll see entry level
coins stabilize or even increase but I'm looking for relative quiet amid the storm
for a while.
In the earoy 80's Speculators drove the market for gold and silver as the Hunt brothers cornered markets. That lasted until just about the time Reagan took office. Then boom went to bust.Coils followed the precious metals markets, but paid off much better for a while. Ask Ed Lee, David Hall, Bowers, etc.! . Coin portfolios did not keep up with the stock market and other assets like real estate in the following period. Coins like ike gold and silver, turned into was a trap for assets. Big collections sat stagnant in vaults waiting for someone to prime the pump.
All that changed with the invention of the internet. So the next coin bubble coincided with the internet boom and bust. But I think the bust never really happened for the same reasons as earlier, we are all crazy about coins.
As the current financial collapse creates the next asset bubble, commodity markets are already driving prices higher. But for metals, there was always the phenomenon of national bank interventions to stabilize the markets. Right now the US gold reserve is low, the IMF's reserver is low, but other countries seem to be aquiring gold and silver faster than they can dig it up. So as the world devalues the dollar, they are seeking safety in metals.
Beyond bullion value, for coins there is collector value which is more of a socio-economic thing. As the rich get richer they look for hedges and places to bury their wealth. Gold has always been the gold standard ! One need only look back to the Dutch Tulip boom for examples of the phenomenon.
So in short, as the economy recovers, and the rich get richer, collectibles will rise (rare and historically significant is the key). "Save your confederate dollars boys, the south will rise again!!"
Short term we are better off it the collectible markets rise slowly and one or two percent ahead of the inflatoin rate!
I can't see the rare coin market going up until the people who buy the $2,000 to $5,000 coins have more money to spend. Sure, there is competition for uber rarities; the well to do always seem to have disposable funds, but that's just a sliver of the rare coin market.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I can see a big crash in everyday coins that are widely available, simply because many people are being hurt by the economy. That tends to unfortunately affect the middle class more than many other groups, and these are the people driving the market for regular collector coins. In my mind this includes most 20th C. issues, and quite a few 19th C. types, circulated Bust and Seated material comes to mind. The high end collectors including doctors/lawyers/wall st. bankers really don't seem to be affected by the economy so they continue to collect the high end coins. I haven't seen any price pull back in these areas and don't expect to.
In my own experience in the past week I bought one relatively common coin to me (estimated 250-500 existing) in MS64 RB and got it for a very good price, and I bought one rare coin (estimated 5-9 existing) and paid a new record price. Even though the first is considered fairly scarce by many at least 1-2 examples come up for sale every year, so even if you don't buy this one you'll get another chance. And I got this one for around 25-30% less than it might have sold for last year simply because I think many people feel the same way right now. Last year it might have sold for a blow out price just because it's tied for 2nd finest of the 6 uncirculated examples graded by the two major TPG's. The second one is a different story, I had to go right to my max bid to win it, because you might not see another one available for many many years. And apparantly several other collectors felt the same way, in a case like that even the "average" collector (who still has a job) will stretch.
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
- Jim
and bullion markets in a most uninformed manner. Since we really do not know what
the leaders of the Nations of the world intend to do, in addition to the uncertainty
principles of the economic system. Add to this fish head stew, the concept of too big to fail,
and too big to prosecute as well as limped enforcement where we fine millions on companies
that in fact have stolen tens of billions of dollars and you have a mess.
I do not remember a time ,when public money has ever bailed out us working stiffs, when we made
a costly decision in investing. The attitude that "Boys will be boys" when folks steal, cheat, misrepresent,
lie, obfuscate and otherwise screw people as well as other companies to the wall compels these rascals
to game the system with a fair amount of impunity.
With all of the above churning, bubbling and fulminating, how in the world is a coin collector and or a stacker
supposed to figure out what to do, when to do it and how far to take it. Remember the comment from a movie
"SUSPECT EVERYONE, TRUST NO ONE" especially as it refers to any political party, at any time, under any circumstances.
I guess, the only thing one can trust, is the harsh discipline of gold and silver.
As for coins, if the truth be known, most collectors do not really break even on their collection purchases. That is unless
they buy the right coins, at the right time, at the right price and hold them for a really, really long time. Other then that you
will always buy high and find out that when you want to or need to sell, the market is always cold more times then not.
Camelot
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
Camelot