Gold Coins, the PCGS price guide, bullion, green....and gold dollars
ambro51
Posts: 13,960 ✭✭✭✭✭
Yes, gold is UP. gold has been down. Gold is up again. Gold coins SHOULD trade along the lines of bullion value, sort of.
Looking through the PCGS price guide just now, from the gold dollar to the $20.....the gold dollar shows more "green" than any of the other gold coin series.
Yet, this is the coin that has the least association with the base price of the bullion value in it (about $60 roughly). The price adjustments upward have not only been low end coins, but some of the higher priced low mintage issues as well. An interesting mix.......
Is this a sign of increasing popularity? I know Ive sure tried to pump the handle on these little gems, but I doubt anything little ME could have done would influence price trends overall. Or could it?
With a series that has a small collector base, will the addition of perhaps a few dozen more individuals cause prices to trend upwards in such a manner? Is this whats happening?
.............pretty interesting..............
Looking through the PCGS price guide just now, from the gold dollar to the $20.....the gold dollar shows more "green" than any of the other gold coin series.
Yet, this is the coin that has the least association with the base price of the bullion value in it (about $60 roughly). The price adjustments upward have not only been low end coins, but some of the higher priced low mintage issues as well. An interesting mix.......
Is this a sign of increasing popularity? I know Ive sure tried to pump the handle on these little gems, but I doubt anything little ME could have done would influence price trends overall. Or could it?
With a series that has a small collector base, will the addition of perhaps a few dozen more individuals cause prices to trend upwards in such a manner? Is this whats happening?
.............pretty interesting..............
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Comments
<< <i>I would say the factors are - 1. They are gold, and desirable right now. 2. They are reasonably priced for many collectors. Cheers, RickO >>
I agree with Ricko here, a few of the factors we must accept are (As Ricko said) 1. Gold is desirable... not only by collectors, but by non-collectors as well. With all the hype of owning gold many non-collectors are looking into gold, without doing the research... they see a coin that they can afford and buy in. 2. As Ricko said, collectors are looking more at gold as the price and promise if higher prices look us in the face.
Ray
CERTIFIED 1852 or 1853 for the type I, Don't by these dates raw if you don't know what you are doing because there are lots of counterfeits.
CERTIFIED 1854 or 1855 for the type II. Look for a well struck example with a strong date. Don't buy coins with noticeable mint caused defects. I did some “tire kicking” for a Mint State Type II gold dollar as an upgrade for my set at the last summer FUN show. All the coins I saw had mint caused problems, and I would steer clear of those.
CERTIFIED coin from the 1880s for the type III. 1889 is a good year. There are lots of nice Mint State ones around, and they are well struck. The 1873 and '74 are also common, but those dates have strike issues, especially on the word "LIBERTY" on the head ban.
This 1889 gold dollar is only in a PCGS MS-64 green label holder, and it's knock out IMO. I've seen MS-66 graded coins I did not like as well.
I've closely tracked the premiums of all denomination gold coins since around 2003. It's been clear to me that the smaller denomination gold coins act more like gold mining stocks than gold bullion. That is, they carry leverage, both ways. They far outperform bullion during frenzied moves in bullion price, and they get totally smashed during panicky flights to safety/liquidity (ie summer 2006, fall 2008, Dec 2009). Other things affect their fortunes besides just the price of gold. Generic gold in the $1's to $10's has had trouble getting any traction since November of 2009. And their performance since spring of 2006 is not all that impressive either. Until liquidity/money flows return in force like it did during Nov 2008 - Nov. 2009 (ie stimulus package 1), expect generic gold to linger at low levels even while the price of gold could go to new highs. Gold maintaining strength right now is due to the fears in fiat currencies and not liquidity being plentiful in the markets. Generic mint state slabbed gold is still generally 30-35% off the November 2009 highs while gold is 0% off it's December 2009 peak. Those premiums will shrink up on another bout of liquidity (ie stimulus package 2).
The $1's are exceptionally scarce coins when compared to the other denominations of the generic gold market. No surprise there since any hoarding of them would have ended in the 1880's rather than 1900's as with the other larger gold denominations. Their TPG population growth is also much smaller than the other more common denominations implying most of these have been graded, esp. since they are so commonly seen in mint state. I've felt they have been extremely underrated for years but interest has yet to really pick up. But if people want gold they go to the larger denominations. Being of such a small size hurts these coins much the same as 3 cent silvers are consistently underrated. But it wouldn't take much of a promotion to boost their prices. If one is looking to buy a mint state $1 look for a nice pleasing CAC specimen as they routinely carry little to no premium ($10 or less).
roadrunner
Probably reflects that.....David Hall was in the audience taking notes the whole evening.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Ive not done exact counts, but from what I am understanding, there are perhaps 20 or so issues that have surviving populations between 50 and 150 coins. Id also think that many of these are in firm hands and will not be in the marketplace anytime soon. So, while many other coins, of different series, languish for months, years...in dealer inventories, the good gold dollars tend to be hot items when they come available. The good dates, mintmarks....not of the 20 mentioned above, but ones that are far less common than the specific type coin dates that Bill mentioned...still can be located fairly reasonably. Speaking here of coins like the 1850 O 1854 S 1855 O 1856S 1864 1867 1870 1871 1872 1876
I know Roadrunner, the size can be an issue, but that relates more to the T1 than the 2 and 3 which are only a bit smaller than a dime. Also, the slab sizes are the same for all coins, and high quality digital photography and its influence on collectors and coins plays a big part here.
<< <i>Interesting comments. Very much along the same lines or reasoning Ive come up with. The Akers coins..perhaps that accounts for the high end price jumps, especially the very scarce 1865. >>
Yes, the Akers coins fetched high prices. It was a good opportunity for the high end gold dollar specialist. Had it been my specialty, I would have bid strong money too. That 1865 looked like a really beauty.
But, all the attention gold has been getting is free publicity to this under-rated series. I suspect it'll gain more followers.
Mint State Gold Type is the exception to this week’s rule for Type. Gold Dollars, Quarter Eagles and Half Eagles all continue their hard charging ways of late, moving up in grades MS61 through MS64. Previous analysis showed there were ten coins that had advanced in Bid since January anywhere from 26% to 58%. Indeed, Type 1 Gold Dollars graded MS61 by PCGS, which went higher again this week, are now showing a 62% increase from January 1. A few higher Bids have also been recorded for select minor Gold Type encased in ANACS and ICG plastic.