1909-SVDB Survivors
cameron12x
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Question: How many TOTAL 1909-SVDB survivors exist from the original mintage of 484K?
Does anyone know or how could it be calculated or approximated?
Does anyone know or how could it be calculated or approximated?
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Probably less than 5% are forever mutilated/missing/destroyed.
On the other hand it has been declared there are about as many fakes/counterfeits as there are original mint struck coins, so there's a scary thought.
peacockcoins
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
Based on input from Ambro and CharlotteDude, it appears that there are probably less than 10,000 survivors across all years and denominations for Charlotte gold.
There are likely FAR MORE than 10,000 survivors for the 1909-SVDB, certainly the most famous and one of the most prized and sought Lincoln cents.
<< <i>The reason that I raised the question is that I'm trying to explain to some non-serious collector friends how scarce Charlotte gold is by comparison.
Based on input from Ambro and CharlotteDude, it appears that there are probably less than 10,000 survivors across all years and denominations for Charlotte gold.
There are likely FAR MORE than 10,000 survivors for the 1909-SVDB, certainly the most famous and one of the most prized and sought Lincoln cents. >>
That's lesson one.
Lesson two for your non-serious collector friends will be the simple theory of supply vs demand. There may be 10,000 survivors across all years and denominations for Charlotte gold yet only 2,000 avid collectors/enthusiasts.
Whereas the 1909-S VDB is the most recognizable and popular coin within the most (sometimes second to the Morgan dollar) collected series on the planet.
peacockcoins
<< <i>Question: How many TOTAL 1909-SVDB survivors exist from the original mintage of 484K?
Does anyone know or how could it be calculated or approximated? >>
you mean at least 129K of mine are fakes!?!?
A key to how many of any coin's availability is: Do you see the particular coin EVER advertised for sale in numismatic publications?
Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
<< <i>
<< <i>The reason that I raised the question is that I'm trying to explain to some non-serious collector friends how scarce Charlotte gold is by comparison.
Based on input from Ambro and CharlotteDude, it appears that there are probably less than 10,000 survivors across all years and denominations for Charlotte gold.
There are likely FAR MORE than 10,000 survivors for the 1909-SVDB, certainly the most famous and one of the most prized and sought Lincoln cents. >>
That's lesson one.
Lesson two for your non-serious collector friends will be the simple theory of supply vs demand. There may be 10,000 survivors across all years and denominations for Charlotte gold yet only 2,000 avid collectors/enthusiasts.
Whereas the 1909-S VDB is the most recognizable and popular coin within the most (sometimes second to the Morgan dollar) collected series on the planet. >>
Indeed. Well put. They already collect the Lincoln Cent series. That's the reason I chose the 1909-S VDB as the example.
<< <i>Interesting that the VDB matte proof is mentioned with 200 survivors. Collecting the Charlotte gold dollars all have fewer extant coins except for the 1851 C. When grade is considered, perhaps only three honest mint state 1850 C specimens exist. It's nearly impossible to relate rarity/avalibility of Charlotte gold (and dahlonega gold) to any other series of coins. These southern gold pieces have a legion of informed well heeled collectors who specialize in both collecting the coins and learning about them. I find their primitive rustic look very appealing. >>
And based on survival data found at this Dahlonega gold website it also appears that there are only about 10,000 surviving examples from that mint. Similar to the Charlotte mint survivor totals, maybe a thousand to a few thousand more.
I would guess that there may be as many as 150k of them left. I'd bet that there's several hoards of em out there, hidden away, of a thousand coins or better if not more. I checked on Heritage, and between PCGS and NGC there's 10k graded or so, figure in resubmissions and whatnot and you'd still have to have, what, 6 or 7000? ANACS alone has graded over 11,000 of them.
So being REALLY conservative and figuring a 50% resubmission and crackout rate that means that there's gotta be at least 10k of them out there in holders, probably more than that.
PCGS has slabbed more than 3 S-VDBs for every single VF Barber Half that they have slabbed.......
"It all starts with the mintage figures. One could reason that a single wheat cent would have a probability of showing up in a general collection of cents as a proportion of its own mintage to the overall mintage of all wheat cents. For instance, let’s look at the famous 1909-S VDB Lincoln. There were 484,000 of these minted. Overall, there were about 25.8 billion wheats minted. 484,000 divided into 25.8 billion yields around .00002 (or 2 for every 100,000). So, in theory, for every 50,000 or so wheat cents you search, one should be the 1909-S VDB. Is that the answer -- just go out and buy ten 5,000 wheat bags on Ebay (which are readily available) and you should find the elusive -09-S VDB? Unfortunately, the answer is no. You would more than likely have to buy about two-hundred and eighty-six (286) 5,000 count wheat cent bags to have a decent shot at finding the 09-S VDB! And, that’s assuming the bags are truly unsearched (which they probably are not).
The problem, in statistics circles, is known as decay. The fact is, coins have a life span (as published by the mint) of around 30 years. Assuming a normal distribution of lifespans and a standard deviation (sigma) of 10 years (an educated guess), roughly 68% of all coins will be in circulation from 20-40 years (one sigma). And, roughly 95% of all coins will have a life span from 10-50 years (two sigma). This last figure is what we are most interested in when determining the life span of the 09-S VDB. Wheats were no longer minted after 1958 (roughly fifty years after the 1909). So, using the distribution data from above, roughly 2.87% of 1909-S VDB coins made it to 1958! That’s a surviving population of 13,899! This is known as statistical decay – the amount of coins that leave the population over time. Of course the total population of wheat cents decayed as well, which reduces our denominator when estimating probabilities. But, because the vast majority of these cents were minted in later years, we can expect a decay of around 4 billion cents (this is just using some rough, back of the napkin math). So, back to the 1909-S VDB: searching a truly random lot of wheat cents, you should come across this coin 13,899/21 billion, or .0000007 of the time. This equates to roughly 7 out of every ten-million cents you search, or 1 in 1,248,000 cents (two-hundred and eighty-six 5,000 wheat bags)!"
So a whole bunch were removed from circulation before they had a chance to statistically "decay".
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Of course, the above statistics would have to be adjusted to allow for preferential removal from circulation. The 1909-S VDB commanded a premium even in the first year of issue, and quite a few were saved *because* they were a first year coin. Casual collectors were probably saving SVDB's whenever they encountered them in change. A few decades later, "penny board" collectors would acquire at least one, since they needed one of each date, mintmark and type.
So a whole bunch were removed from circulation before they had a chance to statistically "decay". >>
Bingo, gives truth to the quote "There are lies, dammed lies, and statistics!" lol
<< <i>Of course, the above statistics would have to be adjusted to allow for preferential removal from circulation. The 1909-S VDB commanded a premium even in the first year of issue, and quite a few were saved *because* they were a first year coin. Casual collectors were probably saving SVDB's whenever they encountered them in change. A few decades later, "penny board" collectors would acquire at least one, since they needed one of each date, mintmark and type.
So a whole bunch were removed from circulation before they had a chance to statistically "decay". >>
You are correct sir.
The rest of my guide actually mentions that: "Of course, the decay concept used above does not include those coins selected for numismatic value (like the 1909-S VDB). While it is nearly impossible to compute, most certainly valuable coins have been “pulled” from the population; perhaps we can term this numismatic decay! This would reduce the odds of finding rare wheats even more."
That's pretty profound.
It would also be interesting to take a look at the survivorship rate of Philadelphia coinage during the same period (1838-1861), and the population density of the southeast vs. the northeast. It was a long and dangerous journey (either by land or sea) to get from the major population centers of the northeast to the southeast in those days. So, the "C" and "D" coinage, originally intended to address the day-to-day commerical needs of the local gold mining population, was probably used very exclusively for that singular purpose. There would have been few, if any, people hoarding $1D, $2.5, or $5D gold pieces. I wonder if the average person living in the southeast during that period actually outlived a typical Charlotte or Dahlonega gold piece. Or if the reverse was true. Interesting.
But, back on topic, the 1909-SVDB was/is indeed a different animal.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>PCGS has slabbed more than 3 S-VDBs for every single VF Barber Half that they have slabbed....... >>
That's because every 1909-S-Vdb is worth (value wise) having slabbed, most VF Barbers are not.
Comparing apples to oranges.
<< <i>
<< <i>PCGS has slabbed more than 3 S-VDBs for every single VF Barber Half that they have slabbed....... >>
That's because every 1909-S-Vdb is worth (value wise) having slabbed, most VF Barbers are not.
Comparing apples to oranges. >>
Excellent point. To extrapolate even further, PCGS has graded thousands of 1909-S VDBs for every single PO1 1964 Kennedy half even though the mintage of that single year of 1964 was a much higher mintage than all of the Franklin halves (1948- 1963) combined.
peacockcoins
<< <i>The rest of my guide actually mentions that: "Of course, the decay concept used above does not include those coins selected for numismatic value (like the 1909-S VDB)." >>
On the other hand, the 1914-D wasn't immediately recognized as a scarce date by many folks, so many of them received a lot of wear before people started to realize it was a scarce and valuable date. Compare that to the 1931-S where very few are seen below VF.
<< <i>The 1909 SVDB was recognized almost immediately as a rare date and was quickly pulled from circulation (most are high grade or only lightly circualted) so I would guess the survival rate is close to 90% >>
What was the reason why the VDB was removed from the reverse in mid-stream? I suppose the timing of this and the publicity leading up to it led to the immediate hoarding.
It's certainly one of the most highly sought coins which isn't really scarce or rare.
The initials came off pretty quickly, but did reappear in 1918 after Barber had been taken out of the equation.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Let's not consider the counterfeits.
Garrow
<< <i>Easily less than half have survived. Many have been lost, corroded, mutilated, worn, or obliterated over the years by those who do not collect coins. >>
And many have been cleaned or otherwise damaged by people who do collect coins.
60 years into this hobby and I'm still working on my Lincoln set!
Seriously, though, I would think somewhere in the 85-90% range seems plausible. Many were hoarded right away. 25 years later, when coin boards and coin collecting became popular, searching through loose change became a popular pastime. If you look through old numismatic publications (like Numismatic Scrapbook) from the 30's through the 50's there were always reports from people doing roll searches, some on a grand scale and cents were the most popular of these reports. The 50's and 60's saw ads in many magazines and comic books about pennies that could be worth big $. That kind of awareness, even it wasn't mainstream, leads me to believe that most of these coins were saved from the wear and tear that destroys coins over time. Just my opinion, though.
Seriously, according to "Coin Facts" there are 61,000 survivors with 19,000 of them in Mint State.
<< <i>Seriously, according to "Coin Facts" there are 61,000 survivors with 19,000 of them in Mint State. >>
Thanks for sharing this data Bill... very interesting!
This is in sharp contrast to the perceived number of survivors that many others have posited in this thread.
Interesting differences of opinion, for sure!
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<< <i>Very high survival rate. >>
i concur
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<< <i>Seriously, according to "Coin Facts" there are 61,000 survivors with 19,000 of them in Mint State. >>
I have a strong inclination to believe CoinFacts is a lot less accurate on their estimations of MS examples, and probably a bit off on their total survivors.
19,000 MS examples, when <2,000 have been slabbed by PCGS and NGC combined, add ANACS and the population is probably close to 2,000 factoring in re-subs and problem coins; this value is then also representative of 31.1% of the entire surviving population!!! Even if this date was stripped from circulation in high quantities early in its history, as well as rolls saved, that's still a massive quantity surviving in MS to this current day >100 years later!
61,000 seems a bit low considering how much interest was placed upon this coin within a decade of its release. Of course not everyone would have been aware of its rarity, as many people used their cents to buy every-day goods, and probably didn't pay close attention to the dates on their coins, similar to most people today!!! Suggesting that only 12.6% (roughly 1 in 8) of the original mintage survives today seems quite disbelievable. And while I wouldn't place the surviving pop as much as 80% (as per GEN), maybe somewhere around 50% is more fitting (>11k have been slabbed, in total, by PCGS and NGC; add in re-subs and ANACS and the unique slab population likely levels out around 13-15k (and not everyone submits their 1909-S VDB's))
There's my Two [1909-S VDB] Cents
<< <i>Seriously, according to "Coin Facts" there are 61,000 survivors with 19,000 of them in Mint State. >>
Interesting since "Coin Facts" shows fewer than 10,000 total surviving circulation strike Indian cents for each date in the 1900's (1900 through 1909). This implies that each surviving 19xx Indian cent is at least six times as scarce as a 1909-S VDB Lincoln.
I think the total survival estimates for both the 1909-S VDB and the 20th Century Indian cents are low.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
