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1933 MS65 SAINT drops $1.5 million on PCGS Price Guide.
saintguru
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Has one sold that we haven't heard about??
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however, some specific and especially rare coins might be hard to adjust, no? I guess as the pre-eminent grader with a revamped price guide, they have to go for it...
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<< <i>a nod towards the overall decline in the market?
however, some specific and especially rare coins might be hard to adjust, no? I guess as the pre-eminent grader with a revamped price guide, they have to go for it... >>
My guess is that the lowered price has little, if anything to do with "the overall decline in the market". I think it's more likely that the adjustment is the result of the possibility that 10 or more others will be judged legal to own.
<< <i>if none have traded, I don't think the price should change >>
Right. I thought the Guide was based on auction prices realized and reports of sales from dealers. But yeah, I've seen low pop coins change values before significantly based on zero sales data.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 700
When one piece exists and it has not sold recently. Regardless of the 10 in limbo. Is this all not just pure hand-waving?
I guess that the price should move to reflect overall perception. But this is the 'quantum' level. Statistics break down and no longer apply.
<< <i>if none have traded, I don't think the price should change >>
if PCGS has a pop of 10 for something and then they grade 20 more, should the value/price not change?
Maybe it is based on something else? ...or, maybe it is calculated by the football BCS computer program...?
<< <i>Yeah--- How can the "value" change when there have been no further transactions? >>
Because, with the discovery of the 10 Langbord coins and the current legal posturing, if the one example which is currently legal to own came to market, it would almost certainly sell for a lot less than it did last time.
I'll take one in MS62 for $1!
That's not a "certainty" at all. The only guide is a transaction between buyer and seller - and there has been no report of a sale occurring. Following your reasoning anyone could merely guess that something “Might” happen, then post it as “Actually” happening.
<< <i>if none have traded, I don't think the price should change >>
Excellent point
<< <i>the known population has definitely been changed
if PCGS has a pop of 10 for something and then they grade 20 more, should the value/price not change? >>
The existence of the Langbord coins has been known for a long time. If I own all or something, and say it is worth a billion dollars...you say it is worth $5 bucks. There is no point in changing a price guide if I bought all of them for $100,000. The price hasn't changed, coins are not a commodity...they're a unique market.
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i kid!
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I would much prefer a price guide that reports market price based upon the most recent transaction, even if that transaction took place a decade below. I would prefer it be me that factors in market conditions in determining what is the best price for the next transaction, not someone at the company that provides the price guide.
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<< <i>...if the one example which is currently legal to own came to market, it would almost certainly sell for a lot less than it did last time.
That's not a "certainty" at all. The only guide is a transaction between buyer and seller - and there has been no report of a sale occurring. Following your reasoning anyone could merely guess that something “Might” happen, then post it as “Actually” happening. >>
Roger, obviously I must agree that it's not a certainty.
AKA is someone just making this stuff up out of thin air, smoke and mirrors, imagination, wishful thinking; or is there a substantive, rational, logical basis upon which the value reduction rests.
At the end of the day opinions on "value" are widely varied and speculative at best.
<< <i>So I saved 1.5M by not having one! Hooray! That's a pretty good savings I realized there. >>
BINGO!
"WHAT DO PCGS PRICES MEAN?
The prices listed in the PCGS Price Guide are average dealer asking prices for PCGS-graded coins. The prices are compiled from various sources including dealer ads in trade papers, dealer fixed price lists and website offerings, significant auctions, and activity at major coin shows. Dealer specialists and expert collectors provide pricing input. Remember that the prices are just a guide, a starting point for asserting value. Some PCGS coins sell for less than the prices listed and some PCGS coins sell for more than the prices listed."
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 700
<< <i>Ok, I just looked up the info on how the PCGS Guide prices are established, I'll copy them here for all of you who are too lazy to look
"WHAT DO PCGS PRICES MEAN?
The prices listed in the PCGS Price Guide are average dealer asking prices for PCGS-graded coins. The prices are compiled from various sources including dealer ads in trade papers, dealer fixed price lists and website offerings, significant auctions, and activity at major coin shows. Dealer specialists and expert collectors provide pricing input. Remember that the prices are just a guide, a starting point for asserting value. Some PCGS coins sell for less than the prices listed and some PCGS coins sell for more than the prices listed." >>
Of course in this case, there can't be an "asking price", as there is no coin available for sale.
<< <i>IMO, it should be even lower. Those that think a value shouldn't change unless a coin has traded are out to lunch. Take J-1776 for instance - it's worth $10M+ and shouldn't the guide reflect that fact and not the $1M or so it traded at last? >>
A coin, like anything else, is worth what someone is willing to pay for it...not what you think they should pay for it.
In other words, the usefulness of any price guide depends on it's objective reflection of reality...not speculation.
<< <i>the known population has definitely been changed
if PCGS has a pop of 10 for something and then they grade 20 more, should the value/price not change? >>
But PCGS (or any other TPG for that matter) doesn't set prices. They mearly report the prices as determined by their dealer network.
Steve
<< <i>
<< <i>IMO, it should be even lower. Those that think a value shouldn't change unless a coin has traded are out to lunch. Take J-1776 for instance - it's worth $10M+ and shouldn't the guide reflect that fact and not the $1M or so it traded at last? >>
A coin, like anything else, is worth what someone is willing to pay for it...not what you think they should pay for it.
In other words, the usefulness of any price guide depends on it's objective reflection of reality...not speculation. >>
If an especially rare coin hasn't traded for years, you can't know "what someone is willing to pay for it" - you can only speculate. In the case of J-1776, its present day value is admittedly speculation, but a listed value of $1M certainly doesn't begin to resemble an "objective reflection of reality". Thus, while there is no ideal solution in this case, personally, I'd prefer a listed value based on informed speculation over the present, obviously highly inaccurate price.
TDN has an exceptional track record in assessing the value of ultra rarities, based on a number of different factors. Odds are excellent, that whatever he values the coin at, that price will be closer to reality than the current listed price of $1 M.
<< <i>
<< <i>IMO, it should be even lower. Those that think a value shouldn't change unless a coin has traded are out to lunch. Take J-1776 for instance - it's worth $10M+ and shouldn't the guide reflect that fact and not the $1M or so it traded at last? >>
A coin, like anything else, is worth what someone is willing to pay for it...not what you think they should pay for it.
In other words, the usefulness of any price guide depends on it's objective reflection of reality...not speculation. >>
How about if a real cash offer has been made for it at that level and turned down? How does that change the situation? The people that make the price guides know a lot more about the day-to-day trading of these ultra-rarities. I know of a few $5M+ offers that have been made and rejected on certain coins, should these offers be reflected on the price guides?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>IMO, it should be even lower. Those that think a value shouldn't change unless a coin has traded are out to lunch. Take J-1776 for instance - it's worth $10M+ and shouldn't the guide reflect that fact and not the $1M or so it traded at last? >>
A coin, like anything else, is worth what someone is willing to pay for it...not what you think they should pay for it.
In other words, the usefulness of any price guide depends on it's objective reflection of reality...not speculation. >>
How about if a real cash offer has been made for it at that level and turned down? How does that change the situation? The people that make the price guides know a lot more about the day-to-day trading of these ultra-rarities. I know of a few $5M+ offers that have been made and rejected on certain coins, should these offers be reflected on the price guides? >>
If the price guide is below these "few" $5 million offers then yes the price guide should be adjusted upward.
Who is John Galt?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>IMO, it should be even lower. Those that think a value shouldn't change unless a coin has traded are out to lunch. Take J-1776 for instance - it's worth $10M+ and shouldn't the guide reflect that fact and not the $1M or so it traded at last? >>
A coin, like anything else, is worth what someone is willing to pay for it...not what you think they should pay for it.
In other words, the usefulness of any price guide depends on it's objective reflection of reality...not speculation. >>
If an especially rare coin hasn't traded for years, you can't know "what someone is willing to pay for it" - you can only speculate. In the case of J-1776, its present day value is admittedly speculation, but a listed value of $1M certainly doesn't begin to resemble an "objective reflection of reality". Thus, while there is no ideal solution in this case, personally, I'd prefer a listed value based on informed speculation over the present, obviously highly inaccurate price.
TDN has an exceptional track record in assessing the value of ultra rarities, based on a number of different factors. Odds are excellent, that whatever he values the coin at, that price will be closer to reality than the current listed price of $1 M. >>
Fair enough. I revise my statements above to include the caveat "for most coins, i.e. all but extreme rarities".
But that's why they call them "guides".
Who's informed speculation should you or I trust more? TDN's? A specialist dealer? The PCGS Price Guide? The Red Book? Or, given the amount of information available to us, should we use past auction and other sales records, compare them to coins of similar rarity and popularity, and determine for ourselves what we would be willing to pay for a coin?
In any case, again and in my opinion, guides should be based on actual sales records whenever possible. For the 1933 Saints, I'm curious why PCGS decided to speculate on their value now rather than wait for a decision on the court case and any subsequent sales.
PCGS, on the other hand, could say that price guides are merely guides and at any moment the open market, which is thinly capitalized when comparing coins to stocks, can determine that the value is different than what is listed in a guide, and that those bidding on these coins do not weigh the input from the guide very heavily in their bidding decisions. Coins routinely trade at levels both above and below those listed in guides and the value in a price guide is established that those compiling the guide feel will minimize this error. Moreover, it is an accepted practice by auction companies to list hammer price estimates in their description of lots they are selling.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
Hummm?
<< <i>
<< <i>a nod towards the overall decline in the market?
however, some specific and especially rare coins might be hard to adjust, no? I guess as the pre-eminent grader with a revamped price guide, they have to go for it... >>
My guess is that the lowered price has little, if anything to do with "the overall decline in the market". I think it's more likely that the adjustment is the result of the possibility that 10 or more others will be judged legal to own. >>
I agree. The possibility that 10 more could come on the market should give one pause before they pay as much for the one that is currently "legal."
Of course there are rumors that one that is legal, might never be on the market again because the government quietly bought it at the auction. In a way it makes sense because the government was able to buy it for half of what anyone would have had to pay.
<< <i>IF the Langbords were to win, the 1933 would be at most a $1mil. coin. After all, how do we know that they don't have ANOTHER 10?
Hummm?
We don't know Jay. However, I'll give the benefit of the doubt to their attorney, who I think has handled this the smartest way possible. And that includes voluntarily turning the coins over to be authenticated, etc. It appears that he did a masterful job of presenting the Langbords as sympathetically as possible - I realize many have zero sympathy for them - and potentially placing the burden of proof on the government. I think there might be substantial risk to his strategy if there were other coins which were not included with the 10 in question. Based on your studies of the PCGS Price Guide, what do you think the 1933 Saint(s) should be listed at currently?
while that does follow conventional thinking as rarity vs. price are concerned, i would think this could actually increase this issue's prices (ignoring for the time being the price guide fluctuation that the OP mentions, based on no real transactions)
unique coins dont really have a value that can easily be measured......examples would be the 1849 Double Eagle, 1870-S half dime, 1870-S 3 dollar gold to name a few.......these pieces have a way of finding themselves ensconced in an institution or locked away in very strong hands......either way, they are technically off the market
by having 11 as a survival number versus 1 lone example, i would think the issue to be much more collectible.......at this point, while still an ultimate rarity, the coin is attainable to someone trying to put together a date run........if demand is fueled, then i could see price actually going up as examples are brought to market (unless additional hoards are discovered of course)
is this reasonable thinking?
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<< <i>there seems to be an assumption in this thread that because more 1933 Double Eagles are known to exist, that somehow makes the price of each specimen drop in value
while that does follow conventional thinking as rarity vs. price are concerned, i would think this could actually increase this issue's prices (ignoring for the time being the price guide fluctuation that the OP mentions, based on no real transactions)
unique coins dont really have a value that can easily be measured......examples would be the 1849 Double Eagle, 1870-S half dime, 1870-S 3 dollar gold to name a few.......these pieces have a way of finding themselves ensconced in an institution or locked away in very strong hands......either way, they are technically off the market
by having 11 as a survival number versus 1 lone example, i would think the issue to be much more collectible.......at this point, while still an ultimate rarity, the coin is attainable to someone trying to put together a date run........if demand is fueled, then i could see price actually going up as examples are brought to market (unless additional hoards are discovered of course)
is this reasonable thinking? >>
In this case, the unique coin's value could be measured, as of the time it was sold via public auction. And a significant part of that "value" was based on the presumption that it would be the only one that could be owned legally. If that changes to the tune of 10 or more additional coins, no matter how much publicity accompanies such news, surely the value of the heretofore unique one would would drop substantially.
Right now, even if they aren't legalized I think the one coin is, in fact, worth about $3 mil.!
I had a notion of why the price dropped. I just wanted to hear opinions. Just KNOWING for sure that there are 10 more (and probably more than that) makes the "magic" of the sole legal one devalue.
<< <i>IF the 10 are legal, the value of the coins are probably in the $1-1.5 mil. range.
Right now, even if they aren't legalized I think the one coin is, in fact, worth about $3 mil.! If they are legalized, $1 mil.
I had a notion of why the price dropped. I just wanted to hear opinions. Just KNOWING for sure that there are 10 more (and probably more than that) makes the "magic" of the sole legal one devalue. >>
Thanks.