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Numismatic Predictions for 2009
MrEureka
Posts: 24,812 ✭✭✭✭✭
It's that time of the year. Impress us with your foresight!
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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roadrunner
Gold breaks through all time record of $875.
Financial stocks take it on the chin big time - esp the major banks.
Several major institutions go belly-up.
Most residential real estate corrects futher downwards
Upper end of the rare coin market gets hotter
Oil breaks out above $100.
Interest rates will rise again.
Fort Knox gets inventoried - find only yellow painted "bricks"
Increased amateur "tax chatter" throughout the year
. . . made in this thread.
I think that he deserves Prognosticator of the Year Award.
This is of course the same as last year. LOL
<< <i>Here were Roadrunner's predictions for 2008 . . .
Gold breaks through all time record of $875.
Financial stocks take it on the chin big time - esp the major banks.
Several major institutions go belly-up.
Most residential real estate corrects futher downwards
Upper end of the rare coin market gets hotter
Oil breaks out above $100.
Interest rates will rise again.
Fort Knox gets inventoried - find only yellow painted "bricks"
Increased amateur "tax chatter" throughout the year
. . . made in this thread.
I think that he deserves Prognosticator of the Year Award.
Indeed!!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
At the same time, a previous year's "error" will sag in price as the folks stampede to get their hands on the new one.
I also predict;
The Lincoln hoopla will be like the Y2K hoopla and Lincoln cent pricing will implode.
"Inspiration exists, but it has to find you working" Pablo Picasso
Financial stocks take it on the chin big time - esp the major banks.
Several major institutions go belly-up.
Most residential real estate corrects futher downwards
Upper end of the rare coin market gets hotter
Oil breaks out above $100.
Interest rates will rise again.
Fort Knox gets inventoried - find only yellow painted "bricks"
Increased amateur "tax chatter" throughout the year
Well, the last 3 didn't come true. And no credit for the first 6 as I was merely reporting on what the most logical outcomes of the various "no-fee" internet newsletter writers seemed to be...and in no small part to Jim "this is it" Sinclair who gave good reasons behind the "why" of the impending meltdowns. But in the end, having a feeling for things going up is not worth much if you don't know when things are going to come down, hard. And both gold and oil did just that.
For 2009 at some point:
Better rare coins hold their own by the end of 2009.
Widgets take it on the chin - but MS63-65 generic Morgans advance
Gold back up over $1030...and 50-50 it runs to $1200/oz
Fort Knox will not be inventoried (wooden bricks were counted in 2008 - and all were accounted for)
roadrunner
I can dream, can't I?
<< <i>
<< <i>Gold breaks through all time record of $875.
Financial stocks take it on the chin big time - esp the major banks.
Several major institutions go belly-up.
Most residential real estate corrects futher downwards
Upper end of the rare coin market gets hotter
Oil breaks out above $100.
Interest rates will rise again.
Fort Knox gets inventoried - find only yellow painted "bricks"
Increased amateur "tax chatter" throughout the year
Well, the last 3 didn't come true. And no credit for the first 6 as I was merely reporting on what the most logical outcomes of the various "no-fee" internet newsletter writers seemed to be...and in no small part to Jim "this is it" Sinclair who gave good reasons behind the "why" of the impending meltdowns. But in the end, having a feeling for things going up is not worth much if you don't know when things are going to come down, hard. And both gold and oil did just that.
For 2009 at some point:
Better rare coins hold their own by the end of 2009.
Widgets take it on the chin - but MS63-65 generic Morgans advance
Gold back up over $1030...and 50-50 it runs to $1200/oz
Fort Knox will not be inventoried (wooden bricks were counted in 2008 - and all were accounted for)
roadrunner >>
What about the upper end rare coin market?
And the upper-middle end?
<< <i>Here were Roadrunner's predictions for 2008 . . .
Gold breaks through all time record of $875.
Financial stocks take it on the chin big time - esp the major banks.
Several major institutions go belly-up.
Most residential real estate corrects futher downwards
Upper end of the rare coin market gets hotter
Oil breaks out above $100.
Interest rates will rise again.
Fort Knox gets inventoried - find only yellow painted "bricks"
Increased amateur "tax chatter" throughout the year >>
Pooh pooh this all you want RR, the fact remains, it was quite accurate !!
Way to go.....
Gold breaks through all time record of $875.
Financial stocks take it on the chin big time - esp the major banks.
Several major institutions go belly-up.
Most residential real estate corrects futher downwards
Upper end of the rare coin market gets hotter
Oil breaks out above $100.
Interest rates will rise again.
Fort Knox gets inventoried - find only yellow painted "bricks"
Increased amateur "tax chatter" throughout the year
Contrast that call to a guy who gets PAID to do it:
Jon Nadler of KitCo (Brian's "Favorite" ;> )We have had a nearly $250 trading range in the yellow metal during 2007 and we can expect that range to expand by somewhere between $75 and $100 in the coming year. Our price projections indicate a likely gold price channel of from $640 to $940 and a chart pattern which might see the highs being made well ahead of the lows. The average price for bullion in the coming year is still seen as rising, possibly to $730 per ounce - this, after a year in which we saw a $695 average - the highest on record. Gold's year-on-year gain was the best since 1979.
Its easy to make a call, but our Guy called at least 6 !!
1. Coin market will continue to soften in 2009. Upper end rarities will hold thier own. Widgets will suffer, except for coins that trade near their bullion premium as they will be supported by gold/silver prices. Mid range coins will soften as well.
2. Gold will hit 1100/oz sometime in the year.
3. The inflation/deflation arguement will be over by the end of 2009. I can honestly say that I dont know which will win out. I am leaning towards deflation.
4. Unemployment will rise above 8% in the headline number. Real unemployment and underemployment will be much higher.
5. Seeds will be planted for a war of some kind in the future. It will probably be a trade war...perhaps a real one.
6. Several countries will experience very high inflation. This will occur either through voluntary devalution to balance the books or economic collapse.
7. Commerical real estate will not be good at all. If you want to make some good money, buy the SRS when the market cracks 10000 or so.
8. People that bought houses in 2008 thinking it was the bottom will be disappointed. Another 20% dowside remains...at least.
9. Stocks will rally early. 1000 to 1050 on the S&P is not out of the question. We WILL revisit the lows, and unless the inflation scenario grows legs, the Nov lows WONT HOLD. 500-575 on the S&P is my target bottom. Could be worse, but doubtful.
10. Several states will experience severe economic turmoil. Expect intevention.
siliconvalleycoins.com
Hoard the keys.
Unc. 19th & early 20th century type will drop 20% (I've seen this start with Liberty Nickels in '08).
You'll have to pay people to take widgets or ugly coins off your hands (I saw this at Long Beach in September).
People like Stewart Blay and TDN won't find any bargains on the coins they seek.
General economic comments:
Expect 10% unemployment
Housing prices will drop another 10-20%
Economic indicies will be flat; I don't think the November lows will be breached, but I am not as sure about this as I am about the first two items.
Due to a bad economy, I don't see inflation being an issue in 2009.
I don't know about gold. If you're really concerned about commodity inflation, I'd look at food. People need to eat.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Coins are beginning to come down now, and this is only going to continue throughout the year. We're in a price spike/baloon, what has happened EVERY OTHER TIME coins have jumped in price like they have in recent history?
Gold will end the year around $650-700/oz
Silver may well hit $20/oz. All I keep hearing is how there's no silver to be had and it's still underpriced, just my humble opinion.
For the rest of the financial market....
We're screwed through most of 2009, things won't begin to improve until September at least. House prices will begin to stabilize by year's end in many parts of the country (Where there is no gross oversupply of housing, such as the Northeast) buoyed by dirt cheap money. However in areas of the country where it seems that entire subdivisions are bank owned, they won't bottom out until prices are back to 200-2001 levels and that may take until 2012.
Unemployment will peak during the late summer.
Car sales will slowly increase but won't reach peak levels until 2011 at the earliest. Regardless of the hype, cheap fuel is spurring sales of SSUVs and Pickups again, with GMAC being bailed out, money is again available to retail buyers, fuel is cheap and Detroit has some excellent new products out and coming out, they will emerge in quite strong shape but things won't be rosy until at least mid 2010, really 2011 however by then most of the trash in their product lineps should be gone, possibly excepting Chrysler.
Oil stays below $55/bbl
Britney Spears loses her singing voice (Well, one can hope...)
As a consequence there should be large value increases in the low mintage 2008 (and prior) coins due to a "rounding back" effect.
The money seeking out low mintage items will have nowhere else to go but to prior years.
I also see a substantial drop in the value of the dollar, a corresponding large increase in gas prices and precious metals, espeecially the second half of the year.
I also believe that bank mouthpiece Jon Nadler will still have a job no matter how wrong he becomes, but that one was easy.
I think CoinLT will come out at least 9 for 10 on his predictions. Several of them are already coming true. But I lean towards the inflation ogre winning out when the D vs I "death match" gets resolved. In my mind it gets resolved into stagflation.
Coins are beginning to come down now, and this is only going to continue throughout the year. We're in a price spike/baloon, what has happened EVERY OTHER TIME coins have jumped in price like they have in recent history?
Coins jumped in price prior to the 1975-1976 cooldown and then by mid 1977 started to take off again. And when coins were heating up in 1983-1987 they cooled off in early to mid-1988 only to resume their climb by 1989. So there is past history for mid-term corrections in coin cycles as I think we will be seeing something similar. In those prior cycles the govt was not a factor in trying to crush commodity prices, but this time they were involved big time while expanding a lot of their available ammunition. We're far closer to the fiat financial system end-game than we were in 1977 and 1987.
roadrunner
<< <i>Smoebody will discover an 1870-S quarter.
I can dream, can't I? >>
Maybe smoeone already has found one.............
and struck using the same exact reverse die as that used in 1866, 1867 and 1869.
Ray
Yep.
I think we will see a something of a replay of the Carter years 77-81.
The Obama folks will spend most of 2009 keeping the economy poor,
blaming it all on Bush, and communizing as much of the economy as
they can. With the communizing of the entire health care industry
being the #1 target.
And legalizing the illegal aliens being the #2 target, since illegal
aliens are almost exclusively high school drop outs, and high
school dropouts vote demo like 90%.
Then in 2010 the Obama folks will try to jump start the economy
so they don't get killed in the 2010 elections.
That will result in much bigger inflation in the second half
of 2010. Good for precious metals, good for PCGS coins in 2010.
2009 will be dicey, Best just to slowly stock up with an
eye towards the 2010 inflation run-up?
Any one else?
Regards, Steve K.
A 2009 memorial "Mule" will be discovered in circulation, eventually it will come out that about 2000 were accidently made with an old die and mixed into general mint production and sent out. It will be hyped beyond belief.
QDB will finally reveal that he disposed of nearly 100 1909 VDB matte proofs by throwing them away with the wrapping paper (read the book)
* By next year, the '08 plat proofs will start rising to startling levels and will begin to emerge as some of the greatest Mint issues of all time. The end of the fractionals will also begin to pull in more collectors, adding to the appreciation of this series.
* The fractional buffs will also continue to take their place as all-time classics and will appreciate more gradually. Their higher mintages will keep them from reaching the stratosphere, but they'll still do very well.
* The unc-w plats will continue to languish relative to their scarcity.
* First Spouse mintages will drop below 2000 for the uncs, but still won't attract much excitement. They may prove, however, to be the only '09 item that is eventually highly sought-after (except for see below)
* The Ultra High-Relief will have red-hot sales and high mintages, dooming it from future appreciation
* I will still buy one
Then, we were a creditor nation, now we are a debtor nation. Then we had a large industrial base, now we are a service economy more than a producer.
The response may very well be different.
Keynesian economics is what is taught in most schools. People dont realize that borrow/spend economics (Keynsian) is a THEORY that is around 100 years old. It has worked fairly well thus far to get us out of our messes, but like most theories, it has holes.
#1. That the central bank of a nation can work in concert with the whole world and that the world will bow to its will.
#2. It ignores debt maintenance.
What happens when this occurs (if it does)?
Does that x axis cross result in us being unable to borrow? Does it represent people unwilling to lend to us? Does it represent the antiproof of keynsian theory? I dont know for sure, but it will either make coins a LOT cheaper....or a lot more expensive....along with a ton of other stuff.
siliconvalleycoins.com
2. Money will continue to pour into the very top end of the numismatic market for at least the first few months of 2009. This will be caused by the total lack of viable alternative investments.
3. For numismatic coins other than those at the very top end of the market it will be a dismal year. Just how quickly actual quoted prices decline will depend on the financial condition of the bulk of dealers. Dealers with brick and mortar locations may not feel the need to reduce prices on their numismatic coins if they continue to generate good money from their bullion coin and jewelry business.
4. Liquidity of less than top end numismatic coins will become a very big problem. If someone actually needs to sell for cash they are going to have trouble.
1. US coin submissions will fall the first half of the year, but will see some action as the Mint churns out the new UHR Saints and it's new round of bullion.
2. The US Mint will slow production on making nearly everything under the sun, to the great delight of numismatists, and the great dismay of flippers/speculators.
3. The US coin market will be stagnant until at least August as a whole, but there will be some occasional flashes of brillance as long held primo coins come out of private vaults
for auctioning.
4. As the recent trend for 6 and 7-figure world coins is showing, rare/scarce World coins will continue to be strong, and will appreciate even will many US rare/world coins are
stagnant or slumping.
5. To prevent bankruptcy, PCGS will be sold off by CLCT, to a group of US and foreign investors interested in keeping the brand alive.
Due to an unforeseen event requiring resubmission of all coins and the new "standards" being revised so that the "old" MS63 is now VF!
<< <i>It's that time of the year. Impress us with your foresight! >>
My foresight was removed at birth.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
and 5 territories
then will be extended to include National Parks for another 12 years or so
<< <i>Silver $37.58 >>
$7.58 for silver / gold around $600. This is my guess, so it will go over $20.00 & $1100.00
"Britney Spears loses her singing voice (Well, one can hope...)"
This happened sometime ago.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>
<< <i>Silver $37.58 >>
$7.58 for silver / gold around $600. This is my guess, so it will go over $20.00 & $1100.00
You were close, with your 2nd prediction
Menomonee Falls Wisconsin USA
<< <i>My thoughts...
Coins are beginning to come down now, and this is only going to continue throughout the year. We're in a price spike/baloon, what has happened EVERY OTHER TIME coins have jumped in price like they have in recent history?
Gold will end the year around $650-700/oz
Silver may well hit $20/oz. All I keep hearing is how there's no silver to be had and it's still underpriced, just my humble opinion.
For the rest of the financial market....
We're screwed through most of 2009, things won't begin to improve until September at least. House prices will begin to stabilize by year's end in many parts of the country (Where there is no gross oversupply of housing, such as the Northeast) buoyed by dirt cheap money. However in areas of the country where it seems that entire subdivisions are bank owned, they won't bottom out until prices are back to 200-2001 levels and that may take until 2012.
Unemployment will peak during the late summer.
Car sales will slowly increase but won't reach peak levels until 2011 at the earliest. Regardless of the hype, cheap fuel is spurring sales of SSUVs and Pickups again, with GMAC being bailed out, money is again available to retail buyers, fuel is cheap and Detroit has some excellent new products out and coming out, they will emerge in quite strong shape but things won't be rosy until at least mid 2010, really 2011 however by then most of the trash in their product lineps should be gone, possibly excepting Chrysler.
Oil stays below $55/bbl
Britney Spears loses her singing voice (Well, one can hope...) >>
Andy I think that I did OK actually.
As I write this I'm at the dealership (waiting for ONE LAST customer to decide if they want a Minivan or not!!!!!) and a lot of what I said rang true.
I blew it on gold, it's back at $1100 again.
Car sales (Which are a big leading indicator of the economy) have improved. We are up for the year.
Let's see what 2010 brings....
<< <i>It's going to be a good year here. >>
Turned out to be one of the best ever!
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
If the output exceeds the income, the upkeep will be the downfall.