The consistency of TPG grading

Bear · December 5, 2009 8:40PM

This question has come up many times over the years

and we have all heard the statements "Oh they graded

tighter in the old days or "Grading is changed to increase

the number of regrades". These statements have all

been denied most energetically by the major TPGs. I have spent

some time and have come uo with some thoughts on the matter.

Developing problem areas have , over time been occurring which

have appeared to be distorting process. these include artificial

toning, excessive cleaning, artificial means of restoring luster, ect.

This can tighten the grading system to become much more selective.

We then have the grading process composed of technical aspects as

well as the component of perception aspects. The barest tightening or

loosening, of the technical aspects can be subtle but cause tweener coin

to increase or decrease by a point. Perception of a coins aesthetic character

does indeed seem to move appreciably over the years. A toned coin years ago

might have graded differently from todays more questioning appraisal. The

setting up of a coin in the way coins are submitted could play an unconscious role

in the graders perceptions of a higher or lower grade. Grading is often subtle and

demanding. I have always suspected that the time of day or the kinds of flow of coins,

could play a subtle role in the perception of the coin.

Thus we have a situation where both the collectors and the TPGs can be correct in their

assertions and yet, changes may indeed occure, in the perception of a coin's grade over

periods of time without the actual technical aspects changing.

breakdown · December 5, 2009 10:55PM

Bear

I particularly like your point about certain outside influences, like time of day, that may unintentionally affect a grader's views. A grader has just broken up with his girlfriend (okay I'm being hypothetical here) or had a bad lunch or is coming down with a cold. That made me smile.

I do think for the series I collect, the premium placed on old slabs can be overstated and the differences in grading over time is more subtle than some would have you believe. Maybe this is just a function of the truly premium older slabs being picked over already. But it could also be that the shift in grading standards is at times exaggerated.

ricko · December 6, 2009 12:11AM

Good post Bear. We must always remember, grading is subjective - an opinion - a trained opinion, true, but nonetheless an opinion. Experts will usually agree very closely on grade, having trained themselves in the very loose descriptions of the soft standards we use. Today's finite numbering (i.e. MS 63,64 etc) is quite difficult compared to the old type of BU, AU, etc. Because of the lack of concrete, measurable standards, the finite grading system will be questioned as long as it continues with such standards. And those who are assembling coins for profit, or the lemmings who have been conned into the grading game (MS/PR 69, 70) will continue to argue the fine points of the assigned grade, all the while missing the true satisfaction of coin collecting as a hobby. Those who get their panties in a bunch over a 63 vs a 64 (or some such ridiculous separation of hairs), are not collecting coins, they are collecting other peoples opinions.. and only meaningful as a selling point. Cheers, RickO

SilverEagles92 · December 6, 2009 12:59AM

Consistency.

darktone · December 6, 2009 1:16AM

Those of us that have been collecting/buying/selling slabbed coins for over twenty years know grades are not written in stone and grading standards do change and that the same coin submitted three times in a row might come back with three different grades. I remember some guy's submitting coins over and over again until they got the grade they were after.

itsnotjustme · December 6, 2009 1:22AM

My recent experience.... an AU58 crackout came back as genuine. Not a happy camper here. I was hoping for an upgrade and would have been disappointed at a return in AU58. The idea of a genuine never entered my mind.

BAJJERFAN · December 6, 2009 1:54AM

<< Those of us that have been collecting/buying/selling slabbed coins for over twenty years know grades are not written in stone and grading standards do change and that the same coin submitted three times in a row might come back with three different grades. I remember some guy's submitting coins over and over again until they got the grade they were after. >>

Do the standards change or do the graders change? PCGS likely has published standards for various grades so unless someone can point out where the written standards have been changed, then the standards have not changed. Does failure to adhere to one's standards constitute a change to those standards? Perhaps the reason that a coin can come back different grades from different submissions is because different graders have seen it.

Maybe it is really the coins that are inconsistent. Modern production that is almost always exactly the same should be very consistent. Coins like Morgans that have been around for over 100 years wouldn't necessarily be expected to be consistent. Yet two totally different Morgans can frequently have the same grade.

CertifiedGoldCoins · December 6, 2009 2:04AM

Some people may crackout coins for a good reason, I suppose. But there are people who do it solely for greed, in order to profit from the next buyer. I consider that a form of theft, and such people no better than coin doctors. And those who play that "game" have ruined the accuracy of population/census statistics for everyone else. I hope every greedy cracker gets burned, and badly. That's the only way this nonsense will ever end.

devious · December 6, 2009 2:10AM

<< Some people may crackout coins for a good reason, I suppose. But there are people who do it solely for greed, in order to profit from the next buyer. I consider that a form of theft, and such people no better than coin doctors. And those who play that "game" have ruined the accuracy of population/census statistics for everyone else. I hope every greedy cracker gets burned, and badly. That's the only way this nonsense will ever end. >>

Wow! Wake up on the wrong side of the bed today? So angry!!!

BAJJERFAN · December 6, 2009 2:24AM

<< 

<< Some people may crackout coins for a good reason, I suppose. But there are people who do it solely for greed, in order to profit from the next buyer. I consider that a form of theft, and such people no better than coin doctors. And those who play that "game" have ruined the accuracy of population/census statistics for everyone else. I hope every greedy cracker gets burned, and badly. That's the only way this nonsense will ever end. >>

Wow! Wake up on the wrong side of the bed today? So angry!!!

>>

Nah, sounds like he is honest and mostly right.

CertifiedGoldCoins · December 6, 2009 2:42AM

<< Wow! Wake up on the wrong side of the bed today? So angry!!! >>

Ask my wife.

No, all I'm writing about are greedy people. Ever bought a coin from one of them? I hope not.

I suspect that some submitting a coin hoping for an upgrade are unknowingly sending in a coin that was already resubmitted by someone else and upgraded. Now that mistake gets corrected, the coin goes back to the original grade, and they are unhappy. Tough.

mkman123 · December 6, 2009 2:48AM

certifiedgoldcoins speaks the truth!

Type2 · December 6, 2009 3:35AM

I would Like to see them put a Grading date on the sert So I can up grade my coins in 5 or 10 years from now when times get beter. It's like this if it's a MS66 you will get a MS65 it is EZ to go up it cost them "0" Dollars on a coin but Cost them $$$ when it go's down. It's the sing of the times less $$$ coming in and more coins being returned for Guarantee thats more $$$ going out . That is why we have all the extra fees now, Pulling of Guarantee's I'am sure there is more coming owning my own Co. I know what they are going through when it's chipping away at your fondation.But that is just me. and what Bear said.

lope208 · December 6, 2009 3:39AM

<< My recent experience.... an AU58 crackout came back as genuine. Not a happy camper here. I was hoping for an upgrade and would have been disappointed at a return in AU58. The idea of a genuine never entered my mind. >>

Why not just send it in the holder for a grade review then? Is the thinking that PCGS is less likely to upgrade a coin if they are influenced by the current slab that it is in? Thus, we should crack out for a new, objective opinion?

roadrunner · December 6, 2009 4:33AM

My earlier statement about how many rattlers and ogh's remain is a possible testament to a shift in standards. Those coins weren't broken out based on rumors alone esp. since they were worth more in the older holders if the grade remained the same. A friend of mine noted in the mid to later 1990's that NGC was offering a special regrade deal and he took advantage of that. He averaged about 80% upgrades on those submissions. He did not resubmit to PCGS however.

To those who say don't worry about about the diff between a 63 or 64. Well, if it's my money and I bought the coin raw as a legit 64, I sure as heck won't be happy settling for a 50% loss. In fact I first learned that lesson in 1988 on an 1838-0 dime that I bought raw in a Stacks auction as MS64+...paying $6750. NGC graded the coin MS64 but I felt it had an honest chance to 65. So off it went to PCGS where it graded MS63! Now worth $3000. That was a surprise that I never saw coming considering the number of underbidders I had at the auction. That changed my view of grading forever. In any event back to NGC to try and get it back as a 64. Nope.....it went 65. Now worth $15,000+ as a pop 1. So I should not have been concerned when the coin came back as 63 from PCGS and settled for $3000? After all it's "only" 1 point. Now this was back in the early days when I felt the consistency on grading type coins was as good as it ever got. And with the shift towards moderns the classics have been somewhat overlooked.

Even in the pre-slab days if you bought a coin at auction as MS64 and couldn't convince another person that it was indeed 64, you lost money. 1 point surely makes a difference and TPG's are not needed for that to occur.

roadrunner

Bayard1908 · December 6, 2009 5:38AM

<< My recent experience.... an AU58 crackout came back as genuine. Not a happy camper here. I was hoping for an upgrade and would have been disappointed at a return in AU58. The idea of a genuine never entered my mind. >>

If the coin shows wear, how were you expecting a grade higher than AU58?

Tortuga · December 6, 2009 9:22AM

IMHO, the consistency of TPG grading is influenced by the number of seasoned graders that a TPG retains. Although there are written standards for grading, it ultimately comes down to the subjective interpretation of the standard for each grade for each coin by each grader. If a TPG retains a core of say five seasoned graders (10 or more years of experience grading), I would guess that the grade on any given coin to be somewhat consistent over time if seen by this core of graders. The inconsistency may occur if, say, your coins are not graded by this core but by less seasoned graders. I would expect maybe a stricter interpretation of the grading standards. I wonder what percentage of graders at TPGs have 10 or more years of grading experience??

golfer72 · December 7, 2009 12:12AM

Anyone that pays big bucks ie multi thousands and up for a coin where the next grade down is like 50% lower is taking a big big chance, I wont play that game. I think by now everyone should see that this whole grading thing is a big crapshoot. If you cant afford to have your coin downgraded by a point or more dont buy it. You have to understand the market you are dealing with and not let yourself bet sucked in by it. If any of my coins get downgraded it means nothing. I use the grade on the holder as a ballpark figure and pay whatever price the coin is worth to me. I have payed 64 money for 62's and vice cersa. its all about the coin.

SeaEagleCoins · December 7, 2009 12:40AM

<<

Consistency. >>

while it may be laughable, it can also bring a grown man or woman to tears

DeepCoin · December 7, 2009 12:45AM

The interesting thing about coins and grading is that somewhere there is a line between a 63 and a 64 (or any other two grades) and there will be coins that fall on either side of the line. The question is, where is the line?

If we had perfection in grading, there will still be a point where it is a toss up. For example if EVERY Morgan dollar was accurately, somewher there would be a 63 next to a 64 and they would be virtually the same.

ricko · December 7, 2009 12:50AM

The fact that people are missing is that there are no STANDARDS, there are only guidelines. The National Bureau of Standards has STANDARDS. There are specific parameters stated that disallow variance. Coin grades do NOT have standards and there can be no standard without specifics. As long as coins are judged according to guidelines, you will have variance and inconsistencies. I cannot understand why the discussion keeps coming up over and over again. Every case in this thread proves the point and yet, spurred by greed, people continue to play this crapshoot. Cheers, RickO

roadrunner · December 7, 2009 2:50AM

Wasn't there a PCGS standardized grading set built in the 1980's that represented a very high number of the most frequently traded coins? And were't the graders responsible for frequently restandardizing themselves to that grading set to ensure that standards were maintained? As I recall a coin had to match or exceed the quality of the coin in the set to be certified at that grade. So whatever became of that grading set? I know there are no such sets today representing the current thoughts on grading.

Once upon a time there were indeed "standards." It was one of the selling points of the new certified grading system.

If one eliminated all the coins that doubled in price from one grade to the next (such as VF to XF, XF to AU or MS63 to MS64,....) there would be precious few decent coins to collect with nearly everything from MS63-70 removed as well as the VF-AU range effectively gutted for dated and type material. In the case of a Liberty Seated no stars dime, one couldn't even go to Fine since it's 2X the price of a VG. So in that case one could only do Poor-VG and then AU-MS62. If one was geared to AG-Fine and AU55-MS62 coinage this would fit them perfectly. But, everyone else would have to find another hobby.

roadrunner

Walmann · December 7, 2009 3:09AM

Consistency is important in so many things, whether its a matter of standards or guidelines.

CHAMELEON · December 7, 2009 3:59AM

I only have submitted coins to PCGS on two different occasions. Both submissions were entirely composed of toned coins. In the 1st submission of 8 coins, only 3 were actually graded (and 2 of those were a point off in my opinion). I was very disappointed. In my most recent submission of 8 coins all 8 graded, and every one of them was graded right on the money. There's not a single coin graded that could complain about. It seems like the two submissions were graded with completely different guidelines, but the last experience helped to restore some faith in the TPG's (well, PCGS anyways). I only hope my next group of coins will grade as accurately as my last, but who knows?

coinguy1 · December 7, 2009 4:05AM

<< I only have submitted coins to PCGS on two different occasions.... >>

I was shocked to see you post that. I have seen you complain at length about NGC's grading in other threads elsewhere, so am curious as to why you have submitted to PCGS on only two occasions?

The consistency of TPG grading

Comments

Leave a Comment