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HOW ACCURATE IS THE PCGS PRICE GUIDE ???
STEWARTBLAYNUMIS
Posts: 2,697 ✭✭✭✭
WHEN SELLING OR BUYING HIGH END PCGS COINS THE PCGS PRICE GUIDE USE TO BE VERY BELIEVABLE
PRICE ADJUSTMENTS, A NEW MARKET, A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN COINS OF THE SAME GRADE, CASH IS KING AND COLLECTORS WANT THE FINEST QUALITY AT A FAIR PRICE
MY OBSERVATIONS ARE A MUCH MORE FOCUSED BUYER WHETHER HE IS A COLLECTOR OR A DEALER AND MANY CORRECTIONS NEED TO BE IN ORDER BOTH POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE.
WHAT DO YOU THINK CAN HELP DAVID HALL UNDERSTAND THE CURRENT MARKET OR DO YOU THINK HE IS RIGHT ON WITH THE PRICE GUIDE ?
STEWART BLAY
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And I bought a few more from another member for around twice what the guide said...
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In the history of numismatics, no price guide has ever been "right on".
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
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<< <i> WHAT DO YOU THINK CAN HELP DAVID HALL UNDERSTAND THE CURRENT MARKET OR DO YOU THINK HE IS RIGHT ON WITH THE PRICE GUIDE ?
In the history of numismatics, no price guide has ever been "right on". >>
It is, after all, a guide.
I tried to be brief and to the point
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i>Stewart, why do you type in all caps? It’s the internet equivalent of shouting. >>
maybe he can't hear himself type?
old age has mysterious ways of making ones mind feeble
I applaud him for his recent hard work thus far and I look forward to additional improvements .
<< <i>
<< <i> WHAT DO YOU THINK CAN HELP DAVID HALL UNDERSTAND THE CURRENT MARKET OR DO YOU THINK HE IS RIGHT ON WITH THE PRICE GUIDE ?
In the history of numismatics, no price guide has ever been "right on". >>
It is, after all, a guide. >>
-Paul
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
100% Positive BST transactions
<< <i>lets see we need pictures , what kind of coin , dealer stock, what country are you in, your in for alot of stupid remarks for the clowns that dont know... >>
That almost seems like a sense of humor...
<< <i>
<< <i>lets see we need pictures , what kind of coin , dealer stock, what country are you in, your in for alot of stupid remarks for the clowns that dont know... >>
That almost seems like a sense of humor...
I think he's still mad that no one would tell him what dealers pay for coins.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>it may only be a guide : but it should be the most realistic, accurate, and dependable one out there >>
but it is not every time i tend to check it.
lets take ikes for example. i see an ebay auction for an ike in 64.
the pcgs price guide says 35 dollars. on ebay it closes for 7 bucks.
that is a factor of 5 on being off.
yes, it is not a high end coin but it is just the most recent example
i was looking at where i got a big chuckle. the whole IKE series seems
so wrong to me it is laughable price guide wise.
In 2004, when almost every late date Jefferson was either not listed or priced at $10, I made the first somewhat realistic guide, utilizing real auction prices. Since then, the prices have gone up and gone down, but there are still coins listed across the spectrum that I think are off.
I think it's very interesting how many sellers want price guide prices or higher for similarly graded coins that I know have sold for less.
For example... there have been 1960D Jeffs sold in MS66 for less than $400 at auction, while the price guide lists the coin at $900 and the pop keeps going up slowly. However, some sellers think the coins need to be priced at $900, but the coins don't sell, but the price still hasn't dropped. What is a more realistic price? Alot less than $900... probably in the $450 - $600 range...
Steve
In memory of the USAF Security Forces lost: A1C Elizabeth N. Jacobson, 9/28/05; SSgt Brian McElroy, 1/22/06; TSgt Jason Norton, 1/22/06; A1C Lee Chavis, 10/14/06; SSgt John Self, 5/14/07; A1C Jason Nathan, 6/23/07; SSgt Travis Griffin, 4/3/08; 1Lt Joseph Helton, 9/8/09; SrA Nicholas J. Alden, 3/3/2011. God Bless them and all those who have lost loved ones in this war. I will never forget their loss.
Brian - I used caps because I am not at home and I had to sign on and my username and password is in caps.
Andy - I know that there has never been a price guide that is right on but am I the only one who can offer suggestions to David Hall ?
I will not shout !!!!!
I think first of all PCGS needs to keep grading consistent. The graders should not be restricted to lower grades on scarce or finest known coins. They should deduct points for lightened,enhanced or dipped coins.
The graders should not be chicken $hit to grade coins and reward original coins.. If a coin looks to good to be true ....it probably is ...and properly graded coins can have dark original toning
Pricing does not have to be commensurate with a guarantee.
Stewart
<< <i>
lets take ikes for example. i see an ebay auction for an ike in 64.
the pcgs price guide says 35 dollars. on ebay it closes for 7 bucks.
>>
Auctions are liquidations by definition. Prices for common items may be far under retail, but that does not
indicate that retail pricing is incorrect.
<< <i> I think first of all PCGS needs to keep grading consistent. >>
Quite a concept...
along with coins that are just below the next grade up,
then perhaps the guide should be a range of prices
and not a mean or median??
But seriously, it's usually in the ballpark but it really varies from series to series. IKEs for example, are way over realistic values. CBH's are a bit under. Liberty nickels are about right. Early copper is quite a bit under at this point. Barber halves are generally under the realistic value. IHC's are over slightly. See where this is going?
It's best to specialize in a series or two so you can personally get a feel for the market VS the price guide. Another thing is that individual coins of the same grade can have dramatically different real values bases on details like planchet color, toning, eye appeal, etc.
Dwayne F. Sessom
Ebay ID: V-Nickel-Coins
It provides a starting point.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
PERRY HALL - I KNEW SOMEONE WHO BOUGHT A COIN FOR $17,000 IN AN MS 65 RED HOLDER. THE COIN WAS REALLY AN MS 64 R/B. PCGS BOUGHT THE COIN BACK FOR $75,000
THIS IS A MAJOR PROBLEM BECAUSE PCGS CONSIGNED THIS COIN TO A MAJOR AUCTION AND IT BROUGHT $35,000.
Stewart
2) Maybe the accuracy is in the Coinfacts? Have you subscribed yet?
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
<< <i>
I think first of all PCGS needs to keep grading consistent. The graders should not be restricted to lower grades on scarce or finest known coins. They should deduct points for lightened,enhanced or dipped coins.
The graders should not be chicken $hit to grade coins and reward original coins.. If a coin looks to good to be true ....it probably is ...and properly graded coins can have dark original toning
Pricing does not have to be commensurate with a guarantee.
Stewart >>
Stewart,
As you know, the PCGS Price Guide is a RETAIL guide to coin prices. As such it provides only ONE price, the high value price of any given coin. IMHO, all price guides should be reported with TWO prices, a low price representing the wholesale or value a collector can expect to receive for his coin from a dealer and a high price or retail value which a collector can expect to pay for a coin from a dealer. Thus the two prices form a RANGE in which everyone knows the true value of the coin falls. Within that range a willing buyer and willing seller can negotiate a FAIR price. Don't you think this would be a better way to display price guide values Stewart?
Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
<< <i>
I think first of all PCGS needs to keep grading consistent. The graders should not be restricted to lower grades on scarce or finest known coins. They should deduct points for lightened,enhanced or dipped coins.
The graders should not be chicken $hit to grade coins and reward original coins.. If a coin looks to good to be true ....it probably is ...and properly graded coins can have dark original toning >>
What does this have to a price guide?
<< <i>
<< <i>it may only be a guide : but it should be the most realistic, accurate, and dependable one out there >>
but it is not every time i tend to check it.
lets take ikes for example. i see an ebay auction for an ike in 64.
the pcgs price guide says 35 dollars. on ebay it closes for 7 bucks.
that is a factor of 5 on being off.
yes, it is not a high end coin but it is just the most recent example
i was looking at where i got a big chuckle. the whole IKE series seems
so wrong to me it is laughable price guide wise. >>
........I will give you that : it's not most of the time I check it too ............ but keep the faith , D.Hall is a powerful Kingpin and can make it work !
<< <i>You guys all ready beat me to it! It's only a guide!!!! >>
That's all it's ever been and will ever be. All price guides are.............................guides.
<< <i>since there are coins that just meet the grade,
along with coins that are just below the next grade up,
then perhaps the guide should be a range of prices
and not a mean or median?? >>
this has been mentioned b4 - and it's a brilliant way to make the guide more realistic
<< <i>The PCGS Price Guide is most useful for determining a coin's value in those cases when PCGS has to buy back one of their mistakes after they perform a grade review.
......I wish it was - but I disagree , seldom do I hear a bought back coin brings the guides artificially high prices
I had this bird at a show tell me that greysheet is the new retail. I luaghed and said, "well then I guess 60% of CDN is the new wholesale." I asked him if he had anything he wanted to sell me at the "new wholesale."
<< <i>
<< <i>
lets take ikes for example. i see an ebay auction for an ike in 64.
the pcgs price guide says 35 dollars. on ebay it closes for 7 bucks.
>>
Auctions are liquidations by definition. Prices for common items may be far under retail, but that does not
indicate that retail pricing is incorrect. >>
correct me if i am wrong but does not a lot of the data come from
auctions? one cannot pick and choose from heritage auctions while
ignoring ebay which, i bet, sells more coins that are slabbed on
a dollar basis then heritage does per year. especially if you deduct
the uber near one of a kind rarities that heritage gets per year which
are impossible to put a price guide value to for the most part.
<< <i>PERRY HALL - I KNEW SOMEONE WHO BOUGHT A COIN FOR $17,000 IN AN MS 65 RED HOLDER. THE COIN WAS REALLY AN MS 64 R/B. PCGS BOUGHT THE COIN BACK FOR $75,000
THIS IS A MAJOR PROBLEM BECAUSE PCGS CONSIGNED THIS COIN TO A MAJOR AUCTION AND IT BROUGHT $35,000.
Stewart >>
WOW, I don't even know how to interpret this, buy a turned RD -> RB coin, hold PCGS to the guide, they then flip it back to the market in the original grade or the "correct grade" at a large premium because the guide is wrong and some one over paid for an RB coin??
Caps or no caps? From reading the birthday post to saint on here today the majority here are over 55 and CAPS ARE bigger and easier to read. lol
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Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
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<< <i>I ignore it. I look @ Heritage archives and talk with some dealers I trust before buying / sellling anything. I think that's more valuable than any other resource which is available to me. >>
I agree completely. In addition, if there is a weak market prices will be reflected as such in the most recent auctions. I've always looked at the PCGS price guides as a good indicator of retail pricing, and recent auction results as wholesale pricing. There are lots of exceptions of course, based upon individual coins bringing more or less based on the individual coin, or two bidders locking horns on a particular coin. Great example of the was the 1920 SLQ in 67 in a recent Heritage auction which brought many multiples of ANY price guide, because the coin was a monster.
John
"A dog breaks your heart only one time and that is when they pass on". Unknown