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What if gold goes to $5000 an ounce?
jkal
Posts: 116
What if this really happened. I like many of you I have been purchasing gold and silver for a number of years now. What if this really happened? First of all, who could afford to purchase this gold and silver from us? It could be that the gold and silver would purchase that same amount of stuff as a $1000 worth today, with the value of the dollar going way, way down. Otherwise, what grocery store manager is going to give you some food for a $5.00 gold coin, or for a few Walker half dollars.
What I am saying here is we are all in big trouble if this happens. Even the few of us that are putting away gold and silver if this happens will still be in big trouble. If a 1908 NM $20 gold coin in MS65 is worth $2000 today with $1000 gold, what would this be worth if gold hits $5000. I do not see it going to $10,000. It might not even be worth $6000. Who would trade us their food for gold coins or half dollars?
This could be considered a subject for a different forum, however, I am talking about the future of our coins.
If the value of the US dollar crashes, why would we ever want to sell our gold and silver. If we don't ever sell, then we trade. If we trade, then in theory the commodites that we want will have gone up just as much.
What I am saying here is we are all in big trouble if this happens. Even the few of us that are putting away gold and silver if this happens will still be in big trouble. If a 1908 NM $20 gold coin in MS65 is worth $2000 today with $1000 gold, what would this be worth if gold hits $5000. I do not see it going to $10,000. It might not even be worth $6000. Who would trade us their food for gold coins or half dollars?
This could be considered a subject for a different forum, however, I am talking about the future of our coins.
If the value of the US dollar crashes, why would we ever want to sell our gold and silver. If we don't ever sell, then we trade. If we trade, then in theory the commodites that we want will have gone up just as much.
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Precious metals forum: "This is [the] forum for the discussion of precious metals and how that relates to coin collecting."
p.s. I'm 60.
Nothing happens in isolation.................
Remember most mines have a cost of production of $300-$500/oz.
Prices of over $1000 oz. would make it likely there would be a massive reopening of closed mines with low grade ore.
Never forget.............BEST CURE FOR HIGH PRICES IS HIGH PRICES.
great grand dad [gold $19.35] that you come from a time when gold is $1000 ....
What would he say? You must be in big trouble?
Who can afford it? Who can buy it?
Answer....
It's all in balance with the times.
Look at Germany 1923 ... 4 TRILLION Marks pr. oz. .... No problem finding buyers.
Look at Zimb. ..... TRILLION $$$ notes. No problem finding buyers.
Metal or paper....... I know what my choice is.
********************
Silver is the mortar that binds the bricks of loyalty.
A common date $20 Double Eagle or low grade would be worth % of actual gold X's $5,000.
90% silver coins are a good example now.
Rare coins will remain rare and demand a premium if worth more than melt.
BHNC member # 184!
http://www.busthalfaddict.com
BHNC member # 184!
http://www.busthalfaddict.com
The name is LEE!
<< <i>I don't think many of the "bugs" ever sell their PM's, no matter what the price, it's a mindset more than an investment position, it's always going to go "higher' because of something they read. somewhere. Gold, the non producing asset,it just sits there....... >>
Gold is a currency. No currency produces any interest right now. In that scenerio I'd rather have gold than dollars, euro's, sterling etc..............MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
J6P is for the most part not going to be part of this gold market whether it goes up to $5000 or down to $50. He's not playing because he's had 20-30 years of conditioning to value fiat money. His counterparts in Asia and on other continents are a different story. At $5000/oz you can sell your gold to investors, corporations, central banks, Asian market, etc. I agree that J6P will probably not be buying gold at anything over $1000. And if gold does reach $5000....silver will probably be $100-$200/oz. Now J6P might just buy that.
roadrunner
<< <i>My gold bullion coins would then be worth 5 times what they are now. >>
Only relative to the U.S. dollar.
K
I am sitting on a $100 dollar box of 1000 mercury dimes. Some of the rolls are pre 1930's. You can tell them by the fact that they are 1/4" from the top. Wouldn't this mean that they could be worth less because they have 10% less silver in them than a roll or common silver Roosies?
Will my Walkers be worth less than a roll of 64 Kennedys?
A number like that will mean that inflation as gone nuts and the real (inflation adjusted value) of the U.S. dollar will leave you about where you are now, except you will need wheelbarrow if you want to pay cash at the grocery store.
as politics continues to be the rule of the day and the status quo becoming
ever more firmly entrenched there is little reason to remain optimistic but
somehow I am.
Currencies have already become so much less valuable due to our problems
and unwillingness to face them that it's entirely possible that gold could soar
to $5000 without affecting other aspects of the economy dramatically. There
is pent up room for expansion in the gold price much like a coiled spring and
all that is required is a small change in psychology.
This doesn't apply to silver in the same way because it is less of a monetary
metal. Gold could go to 5000 with silver hardly breaking 25. By the same to-
ken though silver's spring is compressed far more tightly than gold's; it would
simply require a differnt trigger to release it.
Most gold coins would lose most of their premiums on a severe breakout. Only
those that were already worth more than $5000 / oz would retain their premi-
ums but some would enjoy increased demand caused by the demand of gold
owners enjoying windfall profits.
Hoard the keys.
so you can see with your eyes closed.
What'll they think of next?
<< <i>I suppose the holes line up with some made in the eyelid
so you can see with your eyes closed.
What'll they think of next? >>
An implant with only one hole, and we don't want to go there.
Drinks are on Roadrunner.
If gold goes to $5,000 an ounce, a loaf of bread will cost you $100, and the U.S. dollar won't be worth a plug nickel.
That didn't happen in the 1970's........and it won't happen in this current cycle either. The price of bread in the 1970's didn't change all that much even with gold going up 10X to 25X depending on what starting point you use. What went up a lot were assets like PM's, oil, etc. I like to use around $60-$80/oz as the reference point for gold in the early 70's because w/o a US price fix on gold until 1971, it would have been about 2X as high from inflationary pressures building since the mid-1960's.
Gold increasing 5X more from here would probably mean bread at $6 to $10 a loaf. Gold counterbalances confidence in currencies, not the price of bread or tuna fish. One would need an Armageddon or Zimbabwe scenario for bread to hit $100. I don't see either as even remotely likely short an asteroid impact or super volcano eruption. Inflation ran in the 10-20% range in the later half of the 1970's. That's not going to get the price of bread to $100. But it was more than adequate back then to get a 5X increase in the gold price.
As gold heads higher, it will continue to swallow up the premiums on better date and type US gold coins, commems, AGE Proofs, etc. At $5000, you'd probably have no more than a 10-30% difference between a GEM $20 Saint and an AU one. Right now that difference is at 65%. The common date coins will continue to close the gap on rarer date coins. Even a MS62/63 1926-s saint could hit the bullion pile! Recent mint products will probably carry no premium to bullion.
roadrunner
Lafayette Grading Set
<< <i>What if this really happened. I like many of you I have been purchasing gold and silver for a number of years now. What if this really happened? First of all, who could afford to purchase this gold and silver from us? It could be that the gold and silver would purchase that same amount of stuff as a $1000 worth today, with the value of the dollar going way, way down. Otherwise, what grocery store manager is going to give you some food for a $5.00 gold coin, or for a few Walker half dollars.
What I am saying here is we are all in big trouble if this happens. Even the few of us that are putting away gold and silver if this happens will still be in big trouble. If a 1908 NM $20 gold coin in MS65 is worth $2000 today with $1000 gold, what would this be worth if gold hits $5000. I do not see it going to $10,000. It might not even be worth $6000. Who would trade us their food for gold coins or half dollars?
This could be considered a subject for a different forum, however, I am talking about the future of our coins.
If the value of the US dollar crashes, why would we ever want to sell our gold and silver. If we don't ever sell, then we trade. If we trade, then in theory the commodites that we want will have gone up just as much. >>
Depends on timeframe.
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
<< <i>Roadrunner, its always a pleasure reading your posts. I've been reading them for years, yet just joined this forum a month or so ago. I haven't figured out how to list any icons or whatever they are called. >>
You no doubt know you can find a lot more of his posts on the Precious Metals Forum.
I've certainly come to watch for his posts too.
Its all relative!
At $5000 an ounce it might as well be $1 million an ounce because most of it won't be for sale at any price. Dollars will be pretty much worthless!
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
"The price is wrong Bob" - Happy Gilmore
"A dog breaks your heart only one time and that is when they pass on". Unknown
The amount of cash held by the public (M1) is approximately 1.6 trillion. Divide 1.6 trillion by 280 million, I get $5700 an oz.
Where would silver be at, $100 an oz.? What would be the state of the US economy?
scott
<< <i>If gold goes up to $5,000...hum...that's why I also invest in ammunition. I'll be darned if I spend a gold coin on food when I can "spend" a round of ammo.
So, you'd kill someone to steal their food?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Voltaire: Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero.
<< <i>Bill- this is exactly what I think. Here we are investing in these items and if our fears are realized, we are all screwed. Even if we have the metals, we would have to trade them for stuff because at those prices that means the US Dollar is almost worthless. Now if gold can go up but everything else stay the same then we can all celebrate. >>
Thats not a likely scenario, but even if that does happen, do you have 100+ ounces right now? At 34 years of age, I have just under 30 oz of gold so far. The last thing I want to see is a spike in gold. I'd be much happier if gold were to fall back to $500 so I could buy more. A $5,000 gold run-up would be cause for mourning for me, not celebration. I wanna keep buying for at least another 16 years!
I read on this thread that the amount of silver lost on a heavily worn Barber half is about 0.1 gram. Equivalent loss on a heavily worn Barber dime would be 0.02 gram. Presumably this would apply to Mercs also.
For a roll of worn Barber dimes, the loss would be 0.02 x 50, or 1 gram. Since a roll of uncirculated dimes weighs 125 grams, the loss of silver due to wear would be less than 1 percent.
If anyone has a scale with sufficient precision, it would be interesting to weigh a stack of 50 uncirculated silver dimes and another stack of 50 worn Barber or Mercury dimes, and see how much difference in weight there really is.
Most of the metal loss is from the highest points on the relief, which is why a stack of 50 worn dimes is noticeably lower than a stack of uncirculated dimes.
During the silver price spike in 1979-80, dealers were paying the same premium for worn Barbers as for any other 90% junk silver coins.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>If gold goes to $5,000 per oz. head for the hills as the dollar will not be wotrh sh*t !!!!! >>
If gold were to go to $5k...I don't think we'd like the world we'd suddenly find ourselves living...and coin collecting would be the least of your concerns!
Brothers, if gold goes to $5,000 an oz, ol' curly is heading out to the Bunny Ranch in Reno.
The "round" number theorem will not keep gold under $1000 forever. Recall that the DOW fell back 5 times from the 1000 point level from 1966 to 1982....16 years. On the 6th time it left the round number behind for good and increased another 14X. Who was predicting 10,000 DOW in 1982 or could have even dreamt it? Round numbers are based in superstition. Few thought gold could rise above $100 in 1970 either. Some of the more illuminary of that time were sure that gold was headed to under $10/oz once it was no longer backing currencies. They sure got that wrong. And during the 1970's unemployment was not good, the SM fell 70% when inflation adjusted, yet somehow gold found a way to rise 10X or more during a period of lousy business conditions. Rare coin prices also exploded from 1977-1980 during those same lousy conditions. It's a lot more to do with the currency than the unemployment rate. Joe6Pack is not buying gold regardless of the unemployment rate. He wasn't buying from 2003-2007 and he's certainly not buying today. Other parties are doing the buying.
A 10-25X increase in the price of gold in the 1970's did not alter the world immeasureably from 1971 to 1980. Yes, we survived a 25X increase in the pog. I'm sure that in 1970 most people would have said they wouldn't want to live in a world with $875 gold. They couldn't comprehend that gold price. But that price increase was just keeping a scorecard on the value of currencies. Oil followed basically the same path. Gold merely reacts to currency problems. It is not a judge and jury on every economic issue.
roadrunner