Poll: coin prices are down x% since last summer?
RedTiger
Posts: 5,608 ✭
The "Kevorkian" thread got me curious. In that thread noted numismatist Stewart Blay poses a question, that might be interpreted to mean there has been a 20% to 50% price decline from the highs.
link to other thread
Contrast that with the PCGS price guide which is showing a modest 3% to 5% off the highs. Dealer asking prices seem firm, even at dealers that write about a larger percentage decline. I understand the part of the story that the dealer bids are much lower, even if their asking prices remain firm.
What I would like to know is what are you experiencing for the coins you collect? Are you primarily a buyer or seller as that seems to make a difference in the answer?
link to other thread
Contrast that with the PCGS price guide which is showing a modest 3% to 5% off the highs. Dealer asking prices seem firm, even at dealers that write about a larger percentage decline. I understand the part of the story that the dealer bids are much lower, even if their asking prices remain firm.
What I would like to know is what are you experiencing for the coins you collect? Are you primarily a buyer or seller as that seems to make a difference in the answer?
0
Comments
many of the "auctions" are buy it nows and people do not want to
dare put up a real .99 cent start auction because they are afraid
of the results. most go unsold.
the .99 cent auctions do not finish as strong as they used to.
mediocre prices for most material.
a couple of years ago i used to be shocked by the prices for a lot
of stuff. now it has all settled. less exuberance and chasing of half
eagles.
This other recent thread gives some more perspective.
In the "Coin Market holding up well" thread:
<< <i>OneCent wrote:
Considering the economy completely tanked, layoffs and job reductions galore, the coin market is holding up surprising well. Weakness in some areas and price softness in others, but no where near what I thought would happen and certainly not in the same proportion as the overall economy.
Is this a fair statement? Would you agree? What do you see for the remainder of 2009....get out your crystal balls. >>
link to thread2
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
So far as brick & mortar dealers go, their bullion related operations have apparently been so successful that they feel little pressure to lower prices on numismatic coins. Numismatic coins just aren't that important to them anymore.
If anything prices are stronger than six months ago. Aren't I lucky.
May be time to focus on something else for a while.
As noted before, quality coins continue to sell for strong prices...nice coins are not cheap and cheap coins are not nice...you get what you pay for, etc.
$100-$400 coins have been around 20% off.
I have purchased two coins above $400 in the last 6 months and got a 10% back of ASK discount.
The more rare the coin, the better they hold their value.
https://www.smallcopperguy.com
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SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
<< <i>The lack of viable investment alternatives seems to be aiding the coin market. >>
+1.
I think this may be why the coin market has held up much better than many other things. Maybe it will be the last shoe yet to drop, but right now, there are people scared away from other financial markets and they aren't willing to settle for 1-2% on money markets and CDs.
If indeed true auction prices and dealer bids are down about 20%, and the dealer ask is steady, what is the pricing reality? Do we take an average and say down 10%?
If indeed prices are steady, as about 25% of voters are saying, how could Stewart Blay write what he wrote (a collector selling today at no reserve may lose 40% to 70% of his/her money)? It seems absurd to me to believe the market has become that fragmented. There is a reality out there, no?
If anyone has more real life anecdotes of coins that you have been tracking closely for over a year and recently bought or sold, that would be good information.
<< <i>
<< <i>The lack of viable investment alternatives seems to be aiding the coin market. >>
+1.
I think this may be why the coin market has held up much better than many other things. Maybe it will be the last shoe yet to drop, but right now, there are people scared away from other financial markets and they aren't willing to settle for 1-2% on money markets and CDs. >>
The question is "has the coin market held up better?" If dealer bids and true auction prices are down 20% while the asking price is steady, are collectors fooling themselves? If a person is selling a house, and the offers are down 20% in value, while the asking price is steady, that house hasn't held up too well. In the "Kevorkian" thread, a noted numismatist says that a collector selling today at true auction may be down 40% to 70%. Down 40% to 70% is terrible, and as bad or worse than many other investments, including many stocks, and real estate. Why the disconnect? What is the reality?
<< <i>The question is "has the coin market held up better?" If dealer bids and true auction prices are down 20% while the asking price is steady, are collectors fooling themselves? >>
I think they're fooling themselves if they're buying widgets and/or less than premium eye appeal for the grade. That stuff is indeed getting very soft.
When I see a piece with very nice eye appeal and originality and I "watch" it, in the end I'm nearly always priced out of it even using year-ago values as an estimate.
<< <i>While the true auction price is falling, one optimistic seller is asking over $500 for the same coin BIN. Sounds like a disconnect going on. >>
If true auction prices are falling, it's only a disconnect if the seller is expecting a comparable item to sell for his $500+ asking price. Is it possible the seller would take a lower offer on the coin? I don't know how that seller operates, but I can tell you from experience that lots of eBay buyers make offers of 25% - 50% of the Buy It Now price, so perhaps the seller is accounting for this in his asking price. Or not- who knows?
<< <i>
<< <i>The question is "has the coin market held up better?" If dealer bids and true auction prices are down 20% while the asking price is steady, are collectors fooling themselves? >>
I think they're fooling themselves if they're buying widgets and/or less than premium eye appeal for the grade. That stuff is indeed getting very soft.
When I see a piece with very nice eye appeal and originality and I "watch" it, in the end I'm nearly always priced out of it even using year-ago values as an estimate. >>
There is the rub, most collectors think their coins are above average, even though by definition, half the coins are above, half the coins are below. While you may be an expert collector with a trained eye, what I think is the reality, is that the average collector doesn't have enough skill to consistently determine better for the grade, so at some level they are fooling themselves.
Many notable dealers and collectors pronounced widgets and lower quality stuff weak five years ago, and original coins with eye appeal super strong five years ago. How can that lesser stuff be down 30% to 60% (if Blay's assertions in the other thread hold true), and the better stuff not down at all? Nothing personal, but if I didn't know coins at all, and someone gave me this speech about some other hobby, the BS meter would be ringing loud. The speech sounds like a song and dance routine to me, justifying higher asking prices. Again, nothing personal.
What seems to be happening is the definition of better stuff getting narrower and narrower. It used to be top 33% of all coins were "better," then 20%, then 10% and now it seems like some want to point to 3% or even 1% as the coins they are interested in that are still holding up in price.
<< <i>
<< <i>While the true auction price is falling, one optimistic seller is asking over $500 for the same coin BIN. Sounds like a disconnect going on. >>
If true auction prices are falling, it's only a disconnect if the seller is expecting a comparable item to sell for his $500+ asking price. Is it possible the seller would take a lower offer on the coin? I don't know how that seller operates, but I can tell you from experience that lots of eBay buyers make offers of 25% - 50% of the Buy It Now price, so perhaps the seller is accounting for this in his asking price. Or not- who knows? >>
So when the average person sees a $500 BIN with make an offer, and recent realized prices for $230, same date/mm, same company, same approximate quality, what does that average person think? Personally, I think:
A) seller knows the current value, and is looking for a stupid fish to offer $450, and most of their coins are likely about 100% overpriced.
or
In either case, I don't want anything to do with that seller. Others may have other opinions.
<< <i>So when the average person sees a $500 BIN with make an offer, and recent realized prices for $230, same date/mm, same company, same approximate quality, what does that average person think? Personally, I think... >>
Personally, I think (without having any more background on the issue than what's been presented here) that a seller might have listed the coin for $250 - $275 or so and gotten offers of $100, so they could very well have decided to raise their "asking" prices to allow potential buyers to get the "deals" they want.
If a buyer feels better about paying $250 for a coin originally listed at $500 than paying $250 for the same coin, originally listed for that same $250 (and the coin sells faster), who am I to argue? But then, that's just me.
like jello. It may look firm but is quite wiggly.
the more you shake it the more it wiggles. You
put pressure on this jello market and coins slowly
sink in price.
Camelot
Fortunately I am not a seller.
I miss having some great rarities, I miss the collection and I miss the interaction with the collectors but I had fun, and didn't really lose money. But the dealers and auction house made the bulk of the profits as I didn't hold the collection for decades but rather only a few years.
One of my coins is in the Heritage sale. A very rare 1881-P $20 Lib in MS61. In 2007, the coin brought $138,000 including the juice and today I can see the reserve is $110,000. What it will bring, if it sells at all, will show even rare coins are down 10, 20 or even 30 percent. Others are still bringing record prices. So who knows?
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
<< <i>I sold my entire collection at FUN 2007 and prices then hit about 3% below my LOWEST estimate. I wasn't ecstatic at the time. In fact, I was a bit sad. Then I was both sad and glad I sold as it took me out of debt. Now I am just glad as prices have declined, money is tight and I wouldn't likely get those prices today. I knew then I could never replace some of the coins. However, the fact that I had so much tied up AND was even leveraged got way too scary. I was advised to sell the entire collection UNRESERVED which I did. In hindsight, it was clearly the right call.
I miss having some great rarities, I miss the collection and I miss the interaction with the collectors but I had fun, and didn't really lose money. But the dealers and auction house made the bulk of the profits as I didn't hold the collection for decades but rather only a few years.
One of my coins is in the Heritage sale. A very rare 1881-P $20 Lib in MS61. In 2007, the coin brought $138,000 including the juice and today I can see the reserve is $110,000. What it will bring, if it sells at all, will show even rare coins are down 10, 20 or even 30 percent. Others are still bringing record prices. So who knows? >>
I'm happy most of your Tru-View images are still listed in your retired registry set!
Then there is also the issue of retail dealers trying to hold the line on 2008 prices even as prices at auction are falling.
CG
<< <i>Proces down 50%?? Yeah right. Maybe for junk, but even that's a stretch I think. >>
The 50% might apply for those that tried to play the superior quality game, but didn't have the grading chops or dealer connections required to do so. To me, it is looking like the a game of musical chairs, where each round a chair or two is taken out, meaning fewer and fewer coins deserve the premium price as time goes on. As the percentage of premium coins declines with each round of the game, those that played the game earlier are finding themselves without a chair to sit in. Those that are still in the game believe their coins are still premium, still think they have a chair. However, they may find themselves out of luck if and when they go to sell their "premium quality" coin.
As a hypothetical, say one year ago, a person bought what he/she thought to be a premium quality coin paid the then going 30% price premium for quality from a top shelf dealer. Say the price was $1300 for the premium coin, and $1000 for average coins, to make the math easy. The market narrows and that coin no longer qualifies and now gets the average coin price of $1000. If selling at wholesale, dealer bids have weakened and what used to be a $800 dealer cash bid, is now down to more like $600. That makes for $1300 to $600 or more than a 50% loss, even while the price guide price has not moved at all.
<< <i>
<< <i>Proces down 50%?? Yeah right. Maybe for junk, but even that's a stretch I think. >>
The 50% might apply for those that tried to play the superior quality game, but didn't have the grading chops or dealer connections required to do so. To me, it is looking like the a game of musical chairs, where each round a chair or two is taken out, meaning fewer and fewer coins deserve the premium price as time goes on. As the percentage of premium coins declines with each round of the game, those that played the game earlier are finding themselves without a chair to sit in. Those that are still in the game believe their coins are still premium, still think they have a chair. However, they may find themselves out of luck if and when they go to sell their "premium quality" coin.
As a hypothetical, say one year ago, a person bought what he/she thought to be a premium quality coin paid the then going 30% price premium for quality from a top shelf dealer. Say the price was $1300 for the premium coin, and $1000 for average coins, to make the math easy. The market narrows and that coin no longer qualifies and now gets the average coin price of $1000. If selling at wholesale, dealer bids have weakened and what used to be a $800 dealer cash bid, is now down to more like $600. That makes for $1300 to $600 or more than a 50% loss, even while the price guide price has not moved at all. >>
I disagree with this reasoning. A coin should stand on its own merits. Furthermore, it is usually the less-than-premium quality coin that one would try to sell first.
to, when they have to!
Camelot
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Proces down 50%?? Yeah right. Maybe for junk, but even that's a stretch I think. >>
The 50% might apply for those that tried to play the superior quality game, but didn't have the grading chops or dealer connections required to do so. To me, it is looking like the a game of musical chairs, where each round a chair or two is taken out, meaning fewer and fewer coins deserve the premium price as time goes on. As the percentage of premium coins declines with each round of the game, those that played the game earlier are finding themselves without a chair to sit in. Those that are still in the game believe their coins are still premium, still think they have a chair. However, they may find themselves out of luck if and when they go to sell their "premium quality" coin.
As a hypothetical, say one year ago, a person bought what he/she thought to be a premium quality coin paid the then going 30% price premium for quality from a top shelf dealer. Say the price was $1300 for the premium coin, and $1000 for average coins, to make the math easy. The market narrows and that coin no longer qualifies and now gets the average coin price of $1000. If selling at wholesale, dealer bids have weakened and what used to be a $800 dealer cash bid, is now down to more like $600. That makes for $1300 to $600 or more than a 50% loss, even while the price guide price has not moved at all. >>
I disagree with this reasoning. A coin should stand on its own merits. Furthermore, it is usually the less-than-premium quality coin that one would try to sell first. >>
Basically, what I am trying so say is:
The buyer paid a premium price, and either did not get a premium quality coin in the first place, or quality standards have tightened and their coin no longer makes the cut. I'm not sure what there is to disagree with. If the buyer paid too much, they are out the money. If the market is tightening, fewer and fewer coins as a percentage are getting full boat price, so some coins are going to be left out. If the quality bar is being raised, a coin that used to have merit, might become unworthy of a hefty price premium, especially when selling back to a dealer at a wholesale price.
The point I have made repeatedly is that while the majority of collectors say they prefer original, premium quality coins, the reality is that it is a relatively small percentage of collectors (and some might say dealers) have the skills necessary to determine that for themselves. If a person can't grade with consistency (and many collectors can not), they have no chance at determining quality for the grade. Paying for quality without the consistent ability to spot quality can be a financially dangerous game, and it may be one scenario that Stewart Blay was alluding to in the "Kevorkian" thread.
<< <i>I sold my entire collection at FUN 2007 and prices then hit about 3% below my LOWEST estimate. I wasn't ecstatic at the time. In fact, I was a bit sad. Then I was both sad and glad I sold as it took me out of debt. Now I am just glad as prices have declined, money is tight and I wouldn't likely get those prices today. I knew then I could never replace some of the coins. However, the fact that I had so much tied up AND was even leveraged got way too scary. I was advised to sell the entire collection UNRESERVED which I did. In hindsight, it was clearly the right call.
I miss having some great rarities, I miss the collection and I miss the interaction with the collectors but I had fun, and didn't really lose money. But the dealers and auction house made the bulk of the profits as I didn't hold the collection for decades but rather only a few years.
One of my coins is in the Heritage sale. A very rare 1881-P $20 Lib in MS61. In 2007, the coin brought $138,000 including the juice and today I can see the reserve is $110,000. What it will bring, if it sells at all, will show even rare coins are down 10, 20 or even 30 percent. Others are still bringing record prices. So who knows? >>
Sounds like you sold at a very good time. It will be illuminating to see if the 1881 $20 Liberty meets the reserve in the upcoming sale. A person can only wonder what your collection would sell for unreserved in the current market.
I just never bought into that STRETCH into a coin that is PQ for the grade. ( i call it buried by a dealer) I admit to buying a few coins at more than bid but very few. They were that i know better than pay that but dam it i want it coins.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
Nice for the grade old copper is as strong as ever. I don't see problem free AU Heraldic Eagle Bust $s heading south. Ditto re properly graded CBHs in PC 5 holders.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>For the material I follow, prices aren't down at all. Sure, for mediocre coins for the grade, there's a big difference between now and two years ago, but I've never wanted coins like that in the first place.
Nice for the grade old copper is as strong as ever. I don't see problem free AU Heraldic Eagle Bust $s heading south. Ditto re properly graded CBHs in PC 5 holders. >>
I appreciate the first hand report. However when I see qualifiers such as "problem free AU Heraldic Eagle Bust $s," "properly graded CBH in PC 5 holders," "nice for the grade old copper," the question is have the quality standards tightened? Are a lower percentage of coins making that quality cut? I would guess yes, and that is causing prices to fall. Even if the top coins are still fetching strong money, my theory is that fewer and fewer coins as a percentage make the top quality shelf, and are getting the full boat price.
In any case, how many coins are we talking about? How many of those are auctioned off with no reserve? If the sample size is tiny, while it is important for buyers of those particular coins such as yourself, it would not be a good place to look for indications of the overall market and the experience of the average collector, especially because of the strict quality qualifiers.
As I keep writing, a modest enough percentage of collectors can grade consistently. Those that can grade within grades consistently are even a smaller group, some would say a tiny group. The open question is how many that paid a premium price for those kind of coins, are now holding coins that no longer meet the new quality standards, and now have a loss? If my theory is correct, then the catch is that because they paid a big price, virtually all will think they still have a chair in the game of musical chairs, even as with each round, some chairs are being removed. They think, it is the other guy's chair being removed from the game, not theirs. Some may find they don't have a chair to sit on, when it is their turn to sell.
No, quality standards haven't changed. A few grading standards have been inconsistent, but quality standards haven't changed.
I don't consider a nice 5 that got into a 6 holder as a coffin a coin worth buying as a 6. It's just that more people who spend money on coins now either don't know how to grade, or don't care, and imo, that includes many dealers.
A possible theory is that the % of top quality coins are being kept in collections is higher than before, so the top quality coins which do become available for auction stand out more than they did earlier.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>IMO the ones that are going to take the big BEATING are the collector that got in over the last 3 or so years. They have been conditioned since the start that you have to stretch to buy the good coins. ( i have never really figured out what the good coins are) So they paid at least 30 percent over bid or more. Now that they are forced to sell they find the coins were just average an are lucky to cash out at 25 back of bid.
I just never bought into that STRETCH into a coin that is PQ for the grade. ( i call it buried by a dealer) I admit to buying a few coins at more than bid but very few. They were that i know better than pay that but dam it i want it coins. >>
I'm sorry to say it but I truly believe it: Quality is a continuum but grades are in discrete steps. You can get more bang for your buck by buying a high end coin with negative plastic value than being a slave to bid and buying an average for the grade coin with no plastic value. The collections that I like to view are filled with coins that the owner had to stretch to buy, not coins that the owner paid maximum of sheet to acquire.
I suspect I would be getting 10% to maybe 25% less today. I cannot replace many of the coins I sold at any price today but money is so much tighter that I also couldn't afford to have many of those pieces today.
The 1881-P $20 Lib is such a rare coin but I do not think it is worth $100k in today's market. I suspect if it doesn't sell, it will be sold after the sale. I also notice that it has changed hands a few times since I owned it. In fact I have seen many of my former coins reappear which is strange since it has only been 2 years since I sold the collection.
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
<< <i>
Basically, what I am trying so say is:
The buyer paid a premium price, and either did not get a premium quality coin in the first place, or quality standards have tightened and their coin no longer makes the cut. I'm not sure what there is to disagree with. If the buyer paid too much, they are out the money. If the market is tightening, fewer and fewer coins as a percentage are getting full boat price, so some coins are going to be left out. If the quality bar is being raised, a coin that used to have merit, might become unworthy of a hefty price premium, especially when selling back to a dealer at a wholesale price.
The point I have made repeatedly is that while the majority of collectors say they prefer original, premium quality coins, the reality is that it is a relatively small percentage of collectors (and some might say dealers) have the skills necessary to determine that for themselves. If a person can't grade with consistency (and many collectors can not), they have no chance at determining quality for the grade. Paying for quality without the consistent ability to spot quality can be a financially dangerous game, and it may be one scenario that Stewart Blay was alluding to in the "Kevorkian" thread. >>
Let's take the scenario that the coin was indeed originally of premium quality, but grading standards have tightened. This is still better than having originally bought an average run-of-the-mill coin. No matter what, even if the grading standards do tighten, quality counts, and those with lesser quality will bring an even lesser price.
Edit: Regarding the second paragraph above, I may not know how to grade, but I sure know when something looks nice, and in the end, nothing matters but my own happiness, and not someone telling me that the coin has no quality because he or some expert has said so.
<< <i>
<< <i>
Basically, what I am trying so say is:
The buyer paid a premium price, and either did not get a premium quality coin in the first place, or quality standards have tightened and their coin no longer makes the cut. I'm not sure what there is to disagree with. If the buyer paid too much, they are out the money. If the market is tightening, fewer and fewer coins as a percentage are getting full boat price, so some coins are going to be left out. If the quality bar is being raised, a coin that used to have merit, might become unworthy of a hefty price premium, especially when selling back to a dealer at a wholesale price.
The point I have made repeatedly is that while the majority of collectors say they prefer original, premium quality coins, the reality is that it is a relatively small percentage of collectors (and some might say dealers) have the skills necessary to determine that for themselves. If a person can't grade with consistency (and many collectors can not), they have no chance at determining quality for the grade. Paying for quality without the consistent ability to spot quality can be a financially dangerous game, and it may be one scenario that Stewart Blay was alluding to in the "Kevorkian" thread. >>
Let's take the scenario that the coin was indeed originally of premium quality, but grading standards have tightened. This is still better than having originally bought an average run-of-the-mill coin. No matter what, even if the grading standards do tighten, quality counts, and those with lesser quality will bring an even lesser price.
Edit: Regarding the second paragraph above, I may not know how to grade, but I sure know when something looks nice, and in the end, nothing matters but my own happiness, and not someone telling me that the coin has no quality because he or some expert has said so. >>
I have to disagree, a novice that can't grade often will pick out the worst coins for the grade. Novices might often pay strong money for dipped coins, accelerated toning coins, or flat out average coins. To the untrained eye the messed with coins often look nicer than original skin coins--that's how the coin docs make big money. While it may please him/her in the short term, not knowing how to grade, and trying to play the quality game, is a recipe for losing financially. In my opinion, it is one of the most foolish things a novice collector can do. It is far better to seek average coins and pay an average price, while learning to grade, than pretending to be a coin cognoscenti. How many times have I listed "learn to grade" as the second most important thing for a novice (first most important is "collect what you like")?
A novice picking out "quality" will bring far different results than an experienced veteran will. The latter will do just fine. The former will tend to bring home the leftovers that no veteran collector will touch, often paying sirloin steak price for leftover hamburger. Quality matters, but only if a person has the skill to pick it out. What you are describing is a how a person can take the huge percentage loss mentioned in the "Kevorkian" thread, even when the price guide price hasn't moved, and it may be a scenario that many a novice collector that can't grade that tried to play the quality game is now facing.
<< <i>
I have to disagree, a novice that can't grade often will pick out the worst coins for the grade. Novices might often pay strong money for dipped coins, accelerated toning coins, or flat out average coins. To the untrained eye the messed with coins often look nicer than original skin coins--that's how the coin docs make big money. While it may please him/her in the short term, not knowing how to grade, and trying to play the quality game, is a recipe for losing financially. In my opinion, it is one of the most foolish things a novice collector can do. It is far better to seek average coins and pay an average price, while learning to grade, than pretending to be a coin cognoscenti. How many times have I listed "learn to grade" as the second most important thing for a novice (first most important is "collect what you like")?
A novice picking out "quality" will bring far different results than an experienced veteran will. The latter will do just fine. The former will tend to bring home the leftovers that no veteran collector will touch, often paying sirloin steak price for leftover hamburger. Quality matters, but only if a person has the skill to pick it out. What you are describing is a how a person can take the huge percentage loss mentioned in the "Kevorkian" thread, even when the price guide price hasn't moved, and it may be a scenario that many a novice collector that can't grade that tried to play the quality game is now facing. >>
Certainly, but who is your intended audience? Is it the collector off the street, is it people like me who have a sense of grading but rely mostly on good TPGs for grading guidance, or is the expert who can accurately grade 95%+ of the time.
The point is, I see a Morgan Dollar that says "PCGS MS65". I have my own personal preferences regarding what I want for the grade, yet I know that others may differ in their desires for that grade. My interpretation of PQ may be different from yours, which may be different from Person X.
Furthermore, I'm not sure of your position on the premium price to quality concept. To be honest, it appears that you are giving a bad rap on dealers who truly sell premium quality coins. From my observations and experience, every dealer I know sells at a price point commensurate to the actual quality. For example, Rick Snow in my opinion sells PQ Indian cents, but he charges a price commensurate with this. Whereas Dealer X sells coins to the novice as described above, but sells at a price commensurate to that also.
If I needed to learn how to grade successfully to enjoy numismatics, I wouldn't be in the hobby. I just don't have the time. But I do know enough about grading to enjoy the hobby as I see it and have a more than probable chance of not getting burned financially.
Looks the $20 1881-p DID NOT sell for its reserve price of $110,000.00.
Have no idea what my coins would be bringing today.
When I sold my collection I was sad. Later I was both sad and glad. Now I am just GLAD!
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
<< <i>
Certainly, but who is your intended audience? Is it the collector off the street, is it people like me who have a sense of grading but rely mostly on good TPGs for grading guidance, or is the expert who can accurately grade 95%+ of the time.
The point is, I see a Morgan Dollar that says "PCGS MS65". I have my own personal preferences regarding what I want for the grade, yet I know that others may differ in their desires for that grade. My interpretation of PQ may be different from yours, which may be different from Person X.
Furthermore, I'm not sure of your position on the premium price to quality concept. To be honest, it appears that you are giving a bad rap on dealers who truly sell premium quality coins. From my observations and experience, every dealer I know sells at a price point commensurate to the actual quality. For example, Rick Snow in my opinion sells PQ Indian cents, but he charges a price commensurate with this. Whereas Dealer X sells coins to the novice as described above, but sells at a price commensurate to that also.
If I needed to learn how to grade successfully to enjoy numismatics, I wouldn't be in the hobby. I just don't have the time. But I do know enough about grading to enjoy the hobby as I see it and have a more than probable chance of not getting burned financially. >>
I agree with some of your points. Quality coins do sell for more money. Rick Snow is one of the good guys. Mr. Snow sells steak (quality) along with the sizzle (price). Unfortunately, not every dealer does that, or does so only once in a while. You seem to have found some good dealers. Most novices are not so lucky. If you have collected for any length of time, and been doing business with top notch dealers, you probably know more about grading than you give yourself credit for. The other cliche comes to mind, if a person doesn't know their coins, they had better know their dealer.
That said, it is not a straight line correlation between asking price and quality. There are some dealers on the bourse and/or with websites, selling sizzle, not steak, meaning a premium price for average coins, or prices higher than their quality justifies. I've walked up to plenty of bourse dealer tables asked to look at a coin, and was quoted a premium price, for what I saw as average and fairly common coins. Maybe the dealer saw me coming and gave me a "special price" [especially high], or maybe my grading assessment was off. I can't know for sure. I do know that novices need to be aware that there are more than a few dealers that do a nice song and dance about quality but lack the goods to back it up consistently.