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2009 Crystal Ball predictions ...
291fifth
Posts: 25,207 ✭✭✭✭✭
Back when NUMISMATIC SCRAPBOOK magazine was being published it used to have dealers make predictions of numismatic events. This was always a good, and sometimes humorous, read. Some dealers would make serious predictions while others would try to hype certain items that they undoubtedly had in stock.
What are your predictions for the numismatic (not bullion) market in 2009?
What are your predictions for the numismatic (not bullion) market in 2009?
All glory is fleeting.
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Sunnywood's Rainbow-Toned Morgans (Retired)
Sunnywood's Barber Quarters (Retired)
I'm also predicting, without much effort, that those wanting to build their Moderns collections will find a lot of GREAT deals by the end of the year.
So howzat gloomanddoomers?
<< <i>What goes up must come down. >>
Yep! What happened the last two times that coin prices spiked like they have in recent times?
<< <i>Tangible assets will skyrocket in value. Billions of 'real' dollars will flee equity and bond markets and seek havens in PM's, Rare Coins, Collector Cars and Art. Heritage Auctions will set new records for nearly every item of substantial value. Hillary Clinton will be President by July 1, 2009.
So howzat gloomanddoomers?
Gardnerville, NV
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A very real possibility.
<< <i>Tangible assets will skyrocket in value. Billions of 'real' dollars will flee equity and bond markets and seek havens in PM's, Rare Coins, Collector Cars and Art. Heritage Auctions will set new records for nearly every item of substantial value. Hillary Clinton will be President by July 1, 2009.
So howzat gloomanddoomers?
Won't she be #5 in line? So what kind of scenario would take out the first four? An episode of "24"?
My predictions are:
1. Much higher unemployment, maybe reaching double digits.
2. #1 will cause a ripple effect of no purchases, stores closing, more people being laid off....
3. Rare coins will continue to march but moderns will suffer due to what I would like to call the "hedge fund factor."
4. RE will bottom late spring and stay flat throughout the year.
5. Dow, S&P, and NAZ will bottom out in the Spring...about 50% from here.
6. Gasoline will be lower next year than it is today.
7. Localized "Marshall Law" due to food shortages.
8. States will required Federal "Bailout" money.
9. Depression glass will be in vogue. Antiques stores will have a run on this type of glassware.
Now, how is that for D&G?
I hope my predictions pan out like a weatherman's.
Ren
Obama will be found ineligible for Presidency, provoking constiturional crisis
Markets will fall another 50%
Osama will strike a blow that will make 9 11 seem like a slap on the wrist
Asteroid will strike Planet
La Palma will fall into the sea, causing largest tsunami known and inundate East Coast of US
Avain Flu will spread throughout the world, 80% casualties by years end.
USA will declare war on China
PCGS will poof this thread.
<< <i>Oh heck.....why not all the way on D&G
Obama will be found ineligible for Presidency, provoking constiturional crisis
Markets will fall another 50%
Osama will strike a blow that will make 9 11 seem like a slap on the wrist
Asteroid will strike Planet
La Palma will fall into the sea, causing largest tsunami known and inundate East Coast of US
Avain Flu will spread throughout the world, 80% casualties by years end.
USA will declare war on China
PCGS will poof this thread. >>
I see you've read the last chapter.
1. The coins I want to buy will be overpriced.
2. The duplicates I sell will go for less than I hope.
<< <i>
<< <i>Tangible assets will skyrocket in value. Billions of 'real' dollars will flee equity and bond markets and seek havens in PM's, Rare Coins, Collector Cars and Art. Heritage Auctions will set new records for nearly every item of substantial value. Hillary Clinton will be President by July 1, 2009.
So howzat gloomanddoomers?
Ed McMahon: "Cheta, Muhammad Ali, and Rod Blagojevich"
Carnac thinking.........................................
.......................................................................................................
..............................................................................................................................
Carnac: "A chimp, a champ and a chump!"
2. Show attendance slumps.
3. Wannabe Dealers fading away by years end.
4. PCGS and NGC re-focus on customer service.
5. The Langbord family is forced to surrender claim to any 1933 Saints.
6. With help from the U.S. Government, progress is made against counterfieters and other Hobby-wide fraud issues.
7. Ohio legislators repeal the "Coin Tax" and close the book on the Noe scandal.
8. A remarkable horde of $20 Saints surfaces.
9. The owners of the CDN sell the publication and the new owners enlarge the print size!!
10. I make contact with my inner self and become kinder & gentler, but retain my machine-gun hand..........................
which probably requires a minor correction in many areas from the last two years
2. Truely special coins will continue to advance, however not as dramatically as the past two years. These coins
will require at least one (usually more) special trait such as; eye-appeal, grade, surface quality, strike quality, rarity ...
3. In both 1 and 2 above, original (and mostly original) coins will be rewarded moreso (either hold better, drop less
or advance more) as continuing washed-out sludge finds its way to market in TPG holders and languishes, even at
deep-discount and fire-sale prices
4. Most conserved coins will continue to fall in interest
5. Formerly "market-accepatble" rainbow and wild toning premiums will drop. For truely original (not accellerated, helped,
questionable-but-market-acceptable) toning see #1.
6. Much of the TPG Modern Commemorative, Bullion and NLT market will start to show losses, some noticable, as collector
demand fades and the few newwer collectors do not buy into the MS70-type hype as readily
7. Gem and Gem-plus regular issue moderns (post 1964) will start to show more interest from the collectors that stay, as
they begin working backwards from their ultra-modern (post 1999) holdings, and as more seasoned collectors begin to add
to their holdings in some of the more recent years
8. Due to what will probably be a more challenging economy for some, more collectors will be apt to think about the price
of the coin versus the grade and true value, and for those who haven't learned yet, will end up with the next round of sludge.
In many ways, just what doh said, "...nothing much changes"
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
I do not have a clue!
However my guess for 2009 is:
1. Hedge Funds collapse driving markets down 30%
2.Massive re regulation of financial industry
3. Re regulation of the Airline Industry and Long haul trucking
4. Rioting in a number of American Cities, troops called out to
restore order.
5. Unemployment hits 18%.
6. Massive public works program enacted.
7. Iran allowed to build atomic weapon and US builds a working
relationship with Iran to stabilize middle east.
8. US and Russia meet and resolve most outstanding issues between
the interests of both Nations. NATO places a freeze on accepting any
more former USSR Republics.
9. US auto makers will be reduced to two, GM and Ford. They are to be
considered essential to the National Defense in the case of war. Under
such circumstances, their production lines will once again be converted to
the production of military machines and weapons systems.
10. Israel and Syria sign the long awaited peace treaty. Golan Heights
demileratized and returned to Syria under UN supervision.
11. Shaaba Farms returned to Lebanon and peace treaty signed with
Lebanon.
12. In an amazing twist, Somalia pirates recognized as a force to guarantee
safe transit. They will be paid by a tax on all shipping passing thru their
area and shall become Somalia Maritime police force,under UN supervision.
Major shipping port will be constructed in Somalia as a source of revenue for
Nation. Rebels shall be invited into the Government.
13.Mortgage rates are reduced to 4.5% up to 625,000. Originally intended only
14. New regulations on fiduciary responsibilities of Corporate Boards and regs
governing the pay of corporate officers to the benefit of stockholders.
15. Military strategic reserves, ready for rapid deployment ,will be increased to
50,000 Army, Marine and special forces.
16. World Governments will find a way to reduce their National debt, in a coordinated
manner, in order to prevent a World Wide collapse and protect world trade.
17. US Government will, together with a number of other major Nations, embark on an
aggressive program to produce non polluting and renewable forms of energy.
18. Bipartisan Committee will modify Soc Security and Medicare, to allow them to function
for the next 40 -50 years.
19. Limited Military Draft will be reinstated, to provide troops for homeland security, while
The US Reserves and National Guard will still be the back up for the regular Military.
20. A National Value Added Tax (VAT) will be implimented similar to what exists in Europe.
It is possible that this tax will support National Health Care Program.
21. President Obama may well prove to be a combination of FDR and John Kennedy. He will
move aggressively to heal the economy and to rebuild our military, for a possible War that
may occur near 2011-2012.
22. Rare Coins will hold up remarkably well in the tempestuous year of 2009. It will probably
Increase significantly if gold price is raised by Governments around the World.
22. Gold will increase significantly by Government Fiat much like it did in 1933 in order to get control
of the National Debt
23. Remember, there are no permanent allies, only temporary alliances for mutual benefit.
Also there are no permanent enemies. Today's hostile often becomes tomorrows friend, if only temporary.
Thats about it for now. We can reserect this thread towards the end of 2009 and see who was right.
Camelot
Or
Despite the deep recession, the coin market moves forward virtually unabated. Some coins/series are off (my series), but only by about 10%. Bullion has skyrocketed due to the Weimar type inflation being felt (The PM guys were right all along!). The "two ferrari" coin dealers see very little impact and do not have to tighten their belt by selling ONE of their autos. "Booth Babes" are back in vogue. Times are GOOD....
Final answer,,,who the heck knows!!!
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111
Self Indulgence | Holey Coins | Flickr Photostream
<< <i>"Hillary Clinton will be President by July 1, 2009." AAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!
She's fourth in line. Ouch!
all back on the Forum, happy , healthy and ready for
the New Year of 2009.
Camelot
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution