I predict a break in coin market is opon us!

2manycoins2fewfunds · October 23, 2008 10:47PM

IMO we may see in very near future a major break in coin market.

I'll define it as a failed major auction where either prices are down 20-25% or large number of coins don't meet reserve.

There are just too many negative macro economic things happening with major wealth destruction for the collectable markets to remain unschathed.

Now I expect this to be followed by 20 posts saying how they would welcome a chance to buy...........be careful what you wish for.........

Longacre · October 23, 2008 10:49PM

I also think the end is near, my friends.

Where is 291fifth when we need him?

SilverBaron · October 23, 2008 10:55PM

I will be at CoinFest in a few weeks, and I expect it will be a little slow.....

Butttttttt....

I think the "crash" will start at the F.U.N. show......BIG TIME!!

JMH[BA]O.

curly · October 23, 2008 11:03PM

Actually brothers, we got bigger problems ahead. I saw on the Science Channel that the sun is going to expand until it envelopes the Earth.

dwssws · October 23, 2008 11:03PM

<< I will be at CoinFest in a few weeks, and I expect it will be a little slow.....

Butttttttt....

I think the "crash" will start at the F.U.N. show......BIG TIME!!

JMH[BA]O. >>

I think coinfest will be a busy and happening place

2manycoins2fewfunds · October 23, 2008 11:06PM

<< Actually brothers, we got bigger problems ahead. I saw on the Science Channel that the sun is going to expand until it envelopes the Earth. >>

I had warned of that expanding sun problem in a prior thread and wondered if buying platinum with its higher melting point would provide a degree of protection.

Unfortunately my thread got poofed before the earth had a chance to get scorched.

ajia · October 23, 2008 11:09PM

But will this effect the market overall, or just the 'top shelf' coins?

Besides, I'm a collector (unless you speak with my wife, then I'm a hoarder), and will continue to aquire coins I need to finish my lifetime goal of every date/mm from the Barber series on up in PCGS.

Maybe those keys won't be so impossible if they drop down..........ALOT!

Baley · October 23, 2008 11:16PM

Actually brothers, we got bigger problems ahead. I saw on the Science Channel that the sun is going to expand until it envelopes the Earth.

A long time ago, in my Astronomy 101 class, the instructor mentioned that the sun would expand and destroy the Earth in 4-8 billion years, whereupon one girl in back raised her hand and asked in a concerned tone, "excuse me, did you say million or billion?"

the prof says, "Billion"

and she wipes her forehead and goes,

"Whew!"

As for the coin market specifically, as for the markets for the stocks of solid US companies and good location real estate, for the investor with the short term sell horizon, declines are a disaster. For a young person with a long investing time in front of them, market corrections like this are the gift of a lifetime.

A chance to accumulate assets at last years or last decade's prices.

if one can only conquer the fear.

Course, those believing in imminent supernovas or the total collapse of society are already headed to the hills to live with the other paranoid delusionals

the rest of us are balancing and rebalancing

OPA · October 23, 2008 11:18PM

<< Actually brothers, we got bigger problems ahead. I saw on the Science Channel that the sun is going to expand until it envelopes the Earth. >>

We should all live that long ... Not

Longacre · October 23, 2008 11:24PM

<< 

<< I will be at CoinFest in a few weeks, and I expect it will be a little slow.....

Butttttttt....

I think the "crash" will start at the F.U.N. show......BIG TIME!!

JMH[BA]O. >>

I think coinfest will be a busy and happening place

>>

I agree. This area of the country is underserved and we are HUNGRY for a good coin show. The Stack's auction is not filled to the gills, and is more boutique-ish, which is nice to see. I don't think that auction can be a barometer for the entire industry. I expect the bourse to be lively, just because the show is needed in this area.

291fifth · October 23, 2008 11:30PM

<< I also think the end is near, my friends.

Where is 291fifth when we need him?

>>

I'm here, but I'm afraid I won't be of much help. I no longer have any feel for the coin market. I'm just not active enough.

One thing I can tell you, though, is that if I had the money to be active right now I wouldn't be paying any record prices. I would be looking for desperate sellers who need cash badly and were willing to accept low offers for choice material. Less than choice material ... forget it ... not interested.

Liquidity of numismatic coins is now the thing people should be concerned about. While price guides will most likely continue to act as if the market is still red hot the real test will be seeing what cash offers can be obtained when selling either by private treaty or at auction.

I'm quite sure that there are many numismatic high flyers who are now in serious financial trouble.

pmac · October 23, 2008 11:52PM

<< Actually brothers, we got bigger problems ahead. I saw on the Science Channel that the sun is going to expand until it envelopes the Earth. >>

We won't have to worry about our coins then.

AnkurJ · October 23, 2008 11:58PM

I think its only high dollar coins and big keys that will be effected in a large way. The lower grade keys will still be in demand in my opinion as they will always remain somewhat affordable. Currently I am focusing on large cents in mid grade. Its possible there will be a slight drop, but when its so hard to find decent examples, Im not expecting anything major.

Ankur

SilverBaron · October 24, 2008 12:01AM

I do hope that the CoinFest show is a good one for all.... and I am looking forward to it...

in the hopes of finding the last piece I need for myset... [I've only been looking for 9 years!]

My concern is F.U.N.

Where the A.N.A. was wide open, every thing was selling strong.....

I think that the F.U.N. show will be the "brick wall"..... worse than the numismatic crash of 1985.

Auction matterial with reserves of more than 75% of current prices will mostly go UNSOLD.

If I was an exec. of any of the major auction firms....

I would be calling a meeting NOW to discuss the 30-60-90 day credit terms of dealers.... i.e....

Most would be cut back.... many would be cut entirely.

Yes.... there will always be some items that set new records or sell "strong".....

Buttttttt this will be a "brick wall" for almost everything.

If you are selling....... bring your crying towel.... This will NOT be like the PM market where

lower spot prices are being made up with higher markups due to demand...

If you are buying.... this will be [ the start ] of a great time to pick up those keys!!

Broadstruck · October 24, 2008 12:08AM

Not to get political... but I feel the market will resume after the elections as consumer self confidence will pick-up.

I know plenty of collectors who have backed off and become frugal, not a sporadic as before... yet dying for something valid to crawl out of the woodwork to pounce on.

This hobby is a love for many and they will tighten their belts budgeting in other areas of life to pursue their addiction.

roadrunner · October 24, 2008 12:25AM

I think that the F.U.N. show will be the "brick wall"..... worse than the numismatic crash of 1985.

Darn, I was a very active buyer in the coin market from 1983-1986 attending all the NY auctions I could plus having 2 dealers working the ones I couldn't attend to find good seated pieces for my collection. Pickings were slim and to my mind, prices never fell in the 1983-1988, at least for gem type and better date seated. We must have been looking at 2 different markets. No coins I purchased in 1983-1984 were worth less in 1985. And both 1985-1986 were good buying opportunities as well. If there was a slow down in 1985, I missed it entirely.

Auction matterial with reserves of more than 75% of current prices will mostly go UNSOLD.

Highly reserved coins have been going begging for a couple of years now. Same as always. Some dealers put the same coins up auction after auction for 6-36 months. Nothing new there.

If you are buying.... this will be [ the start ] of a great time to pick up those keys!!

This I agree with. Key dates like 1916 quarters and 1893-s dollars will soon be going on sale....if they haven't already. There was a reason why several major auctions of the past year or two always seemed to have a dozen or two 1916 quarters for sale.

roadrunner

shorecoll · October 24, 2008 12:26AM

One (among many) of the Wall Street fears, is that this was the worst possible time to whack all the baby-boomers, and they will be gone from at least the equities market for a long time. If so, that may actually strengthen hard products like collectibles. I think Coinfest will be good, Baltimore will be OK and FUN might be not fun at all. Then the coin market could start trending back up for a nice long while. And, not to start a fight, but I'm sure glad I don't collect pop-top moderns, go try to sell those puppies at FUN.

quickwing · October 24, 2008 12:32AM

<< 1893-s dollars will soon be going on sale >>

Talking to Laura again?

WaterSport · October 24, 2008 12:34AM

While you guys are fantasizing about when and what ifs, here is the text from a recent forum member I think is pretty clear:

Had a horrible sale of the coins I sent off to
Superior Galleries. Just a bad time of the year with all that's
going on. I got almost all of the NGC lincolns back as most
of them did not sell.

WS

291fifth · October 24, 2008 12:36AM

<< One (among many) of the Wall Street fears, is that this was the worst possible time to whack all the baby-boomers, and they will be gone from at least the equities market for a long time. If so, that may actually strengthen hard products like collectibles. I think Coinfest will be good, Baltimore will be OK and FUN might be not fun at all. Then the coin market could start trending back up for a nice long while. And, not to start a fight, but I'm sure glad I don't collect pop-top moderns, go try to sell those puppies at FUN. >>

You can't eat, wear, live in or pay the mortgage with collectible coins. You have to sell them for cash first. Liquidity is going to be the big issue. Do you really want your financial future to depend on the good will (and liquidity) of coin dealers?

291fifth · October 24, 2008 12:37AM

<< While you guys are fantasizing about when and what ifs, here is the text from a recent forum member I think is pretty clear:

Had a horrible sale of the coins I sent off to
Superior Galleries. Just a bad time of the year with all that's
going on. I got almost all of the NGC lincolns back as most
of them did not sell.

WS >>

As I said before, think liquidity.

2manycoins2fewfunds · October 24, 2008 12:38AM

<< One (among many) of the Wall Street fears, is that this was the worst possible time to whack all the baby-boomers, and they will be gone from at least the equities market for a long time. If so, that may actually strengthen hard products like collectibles. >>

I hope you are right but it is clear we are in a historic deleveraging period with major deflationary implications.

Deleveraging and deflation are not an enviroment where collectables do well..................

RunnersDad · October 24, 2008 12:49AM

By no means am I an expert...but I forsee stability in higher end material as collectors/investors are always willing to pay a premium for rarity and big grades. The middle of the road stuff, or coins under that top tier will see a drop in price.

I think that Broadstruck is right in that the market will begin to pick up as soon as the election takes place and we find some stability in the White House....as that certainly contributes to these uncertain times.

Dog97 · October 24, 2008 12:52AM

From a collector's view:
I'm doing pretty good selling stuff on the bst board in the $5-$500 range. The expensive stuff moves slower so several weeks ago I dumped some $3,000-$5,000 coins on a dealer right when the market crashed and everybody was freakin out. I needed the $$$ for something else I wanted, not because I was desperate. They were solid semi key Morgans, rare enough to be desirable yet common enough to be affordable. I actually received a slightly larger paycheck than I was expecting. Maybe I should have waited...

Al21 · October 24, 2008 1:05AM

Lots of uncertainty right now, in all the different markets. But unless we slip into chaos, the markets will go back up. Our biggest future problem will be inflation. How do we pay off our growing national debt? We inflate our money supply, causing pm's to rise and driving up the coin market.

TwoSides2aCoin · October 24, 2008 1:09AM

I brake for squirrels.

+1
Don't mind me. I predict comedy writers are stealing my nuts.

shorecoll · October 24, 2008 1:30AM

That's too bad, squirrels are tasty

joecopper · October 24, 2008 2:34AM

Not sure what will happen but two weeks ago my consignor sold seven Shields that had been sitting there for months. I had three price levels -- 4 went upside, two target, and 1 low (it was the poorest coin).

Broadstruck · October 24, 2008 2:37AM

<< By no means am I an expert...but I forsee stability in higher end material as collectors/investors are always willing to pay a premium for rarity and big grades. The middle of the road stuff, or coins under that top tier will see a drop in price.

I think that Broadstruck is right in that the market will begin to pick up as soon as the election takes place and we find some stability in the White House....as that certainly contributes to these uncertain times. >>

Thanks RunnersDad... I'll have to mark this day on my calendar as I can't recall the last time someone thought I made a valid point

PrivateCoinCollector · October 24, 2008 2:40AM

<< Actually brothers, we got bigger problems ahead. I saw on the Science Channel that the sun is going to expand until it envelopes the Earth. >>

Awesome post!

roadrunner · October 24, 2008 2:40AM

Had a horrible sale of the coins I sent off to
Superior Galleries. Just a bad time of the year with all that's
going on. I got almost all of the NGC lincolns back as most
of them did not sell.

WS >>

Don't judge the entire auction market on a set of Lincolns sent to Superior. They hardly represent the entire auction market. It's more than likely that it was the "NGC" part of those Lincolns that held them back. Nice PCGS Lincolns have been strong for some time now.

roadrunner

DHeath · October 24, 2008 3:12AM

A correction could reprice everything, but it won't matter. I'll still have some holes to fill.

Placid · October 24, 2008 3:31AM

I see 11 pages of post-auction buys at heritage so far vs. 36 pages of coins that have sold.
Could just be people were greedy with thier reserves.

I had bids on four coins.
One of the coins sold for a new high price for heritage. Two didnt meet the reserve and one is still awaiting auction.

mozin · October 24, 2008 5:16AM

I am watching the PCGS suggested retail prices for Bust Half Dollars, hoping to see some RED.

JRocco · October 24, 2008 6:38AM

<< I am watching the PCGS suggested retail prices for Bust Half Dollars, hoping to see some RED. >>

I agree with you strongly on this Mozin.
I am still in the collecting years of my hobby so lower prices would
be a blessing. If my daughter keeps showing interest I may be a buyer
till the end and just let her take it all from there.

sonoranmonsoon · October 24, 2008 6:49AM

<< IMO we may see in very near future a major break in coin market.

Now I expect this to be followed by 20 posts saying how they would welcome a chance to buy...........be careful what you wish for......... >>

I welcome the chance to buy. Well at least 1/20 of your predictions came true.

Walmann · October 24, 2008 6:53AM

<< Actually brothers, we got bigger problems ahead. I saw on the Science Channel that the sun is going to expand until it envelopes the Earth. >>

Sounds like we should, at best be, paying melt prices for coins.

Nic · October 24, 2008 7:39AM

Thanks Curly.

K

ProofRainbowRoosevelt · October 24, 2008 7:53AM

<< Actually brothers, we got bigger problems ahead. I saw on the Science Channel that the sun is going to expand until it envelopes the Earth. >>

When did the sun get on board? I thought the sun was only supposed only give us skin cancer... now it wants to swallow us? As if we don't have enough problems.

As for coins, I've been noticing a price drop in many 1950-64 proofs for the past 9 months or so. It will be interesting to see what happens at FUN.

duck620 · October 24, 2008 7:57AM

<< Actually brothers, we got bigger problems ahead. I saw on the Science Channel that the sun is going to expand until it envelopes the Earth. >>

Curly,before that happens,loan me that great set of mpl you have.

ColonialCoinUnion · October 24, 2008 7:58AM

<< IMO we may see in very near future a major break in coin market.

I'll define it as a failed major auction where either prices are down 20-25% or large number of coins don't meet reserve.

There are just too many negative macro economic things happening with major wealth destruction for the collectable markets to remain unschathed.

Now I expect this to be followed by 20 posts saying how they would welcome a chance to buy...........be careful what you wish for......... >>

Can you provide a link to all of your previous predictions?

ARCO · October 24, 2008 7:59AM

<< IMO we may see in very near future a major break in coin market.

Now I expect this to be followed by 20 posts saying how they would welcome a chance to buy...........be careful what you wish for......... >>

Perfect, then I could buy the coins I want at a better pri....wait a minute, how did you know what I was thinking?

Tyler

derryb · October 24, 2008 8:05AM

<< Actually brothers, we got bigger problems ahead. I saw on the Science Channel that the sun is going to expand until it envelopes the Earth. >>

Curly, you been hangin' around Bear?

abitofthisabitofthat · October 24, 2008 9:48AM

Sotheby's just announced that they lost $15M by guaranteeing prices for art work in their latest auction. While not a direct parallel to the coin market, it is disconcerting. Sotheby's usually is not that far wrong on their estimates. I think that a lot of money is scared right now. I agree coinfest will be less impacted - not auction-centric. But FUN - that will certainly be interesting. I also wonder who would be consigning to those auctions. I would not.

slinc · October 24, 2008 10:04AM

<< But will this effect the market overall, or just the 'top shelf' coins?

Besides, I'm a collector (unless you speak with my wife, then I'm a hoarder), and will continue to aquire coins I need to finish my lifetime goal of every date/mm from the Barber series on up in PCGS.

Maybe those keys won't be so impossible if they drop down..........ALOT!

>>

lol my wife called me a hoarder as well i find that very amusing, but weighing in on the topic i totally expect a downturn in the coin market and being a collector i'll be pleased to see the lower prices.

mrearlygold · October 24, 2008 11:32AM

Just like during this bull market there have been winners and losers, in the bear market there will be winners and losers.

Be a winner.

2manycoins2fewfunds · October 24, 2008 1:48PM

<< 

<< IMO we may see in very near future a major break in coin market.

I'll define it as a failed major auction where either prices are down 20-25% or large number of coins don't meet reserve.

There are just too many negative macro economic things happening with major wealth destruction for the collectable markets to remain unschathed.

Now I expect this to be followed by 20 posts saying how they would welcome a chance to buy...........be careful what you wish for......... >>

Can you provide a link to all of your previous predictions? >>

I did post that I sold some PMs near peak.........got some grief for that call at the time.

http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=26&threadid=648930&highlight_key=y

Bear · October 24, 2008 4:28PM

Oh my gosh. The sun is gonna explode

and, and we are all gonna burn up and

the market will go all to hell my coins will melt

and my donust will dry up and we all be gone.

It's enough to ruin a bears entire weekend.

Elcontador · October 24, 2008 5:03PM

I'll define it as a failed major auction where either prices are down 20-25% or large number of coins don't meet reserve. Many of the coins I have followed in the last year have not met the reserve at major auctions.

From what I've seen, attractive for the date key coins, ie., 1885 and 1912 S Liberty Nickels, 1909 S VDB Cents, etc. are being strong money. However, more esoteric material, like condition rare Liberty Nickels, are noticeably down from last year. Non key mediocre for the grade coins haven't been selling for the last six months or so.

I predict a break in coin market is opon us!

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