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All this talk of 3.5 times sheet, can you??
pennyannie
Posts: 3,929 ✭✭✭
With all this recent talk of buying coins at prices way over sheet and price guides can you put together a set of coins say Barber dimes, Liberty V-nickels in MS 65 or Proof 65 and be able to sell in a year with out taking a huge loss? If the coin market continues at the current pace how long would you have to hold the coins to come out ahead? Some of these prices being asked by dealers seem to be at 2012 price levels. Should you even think that you could make a profit anymore? Personally i have not seen a lot of this 3.5 times over except on the internet. Most of the local coin stores i visit pretty much use the greysheet when dealing with me. The only drawback to this arrangement is the time involved to get the coins. I have to wait for someone to sell to my dealers. The greysheet seems to work pretty good in my area, why are different areas not the same? More collectors? More money?
One of my own ideas on this 3.5 times stuff is dealers buying from dealers at coin shows. This is a lot different that grandads heirs walking into a B & M and selling his life collection. Dealers around her claim that where the money is at. They need and want the walk in sellers. But when dealers buy from dealers at shows the price is already kicked up a few notches. If a coin goes thru 3 dealers hands at one show what started at grey sheet has gotten expensive. The 10 percent mark up from bid to ask is WAY BEHIND THE TIMES. NO WAY WOULD I PUT 200,000 INTO COINS AS A DEALER TO MAKE 10 PERCENT ON MY MONEY. Maybe greey shet needs to rethink what they are doing.
In the old days of coin collecting mail order and local shows was the way to build your collection. Today collectors can find a wealth of info on the net, buy coins world wide with a click of a mouse. Ebay has leveled the playing field to a degree. Personally if i need to sell a coin the dealer is my last option.
One of my own ideas on this 3.5 times stuff is dealers buying from dealers at coin shows. This is a lot different that grandads heirs walking into a B & M and selling his life collection. Dealers around her claim that where the money is at. They need and want the walk in sellers. But when dealers buy from dealers at shows the price is already kicked up a few notches. If a coin goes thru 3 dealers hands at one show what started at grey sheet has gotten expensive. The 10 percent mark up from bid to ask is WAY BEHIND THE TIMES. NO WAY WOULD I PUT 200,000 INTO COINS AS A DEALER TO MAKE 10 PERCENT ON MY MONEY. Maybe greey shet needs to rethink what they are doing.
In the old days of coin collecting mail order and local shows was the way to build your collection. Today collectors can find a wealth of info on the net, buy coins world wide with a click of a mouse. Ebay has leveled the playing field to a degree. Personally if i need to sell a coin the dealer is my last option.
Mark
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
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Brother, I disagree with so much of your post that I don't even know where to start.
Just a couple of my opinions:
While coins CAN be a good investment, if you are saving for your future, build a foundation in something else.
Good Lord, don't ever think that e-bay levels the playing field.
I was around in the "old days" and collecting mail order wasn't the way to build a quality collection. The only way to build a quality collection back then was the same way that it is now, get connected, and be prepared to pay over sheet.
<< <i>The 3.5 times thread looks like the OP was wrong, and the coin is a rare die marriage that a specialty collector, not someone looking for sheet priced common coins, would buy. >>
Actually Rob, you are the one who is wrong. The coin is not some "rare die marraige". Its an R1 in fact, and one of only 2 varieties of the 1808 half cent. Its basically just a common coin with ultra high appeal for the grade, nothing more elaborate as you seem to want it to be.
<< <i>
<< <i>The 3.5 times thread looks like the OP was wrong, and the coin is a rare die marriage that a specialty collector, not someone looking for sheet priced common coins, would buy. >>
Actually Rob, you are the one who is wrong. The coin is not some "rare die marraige". Its an R1 in fact, and one of only 2 varieties of the 1808 half cent. Its basically just a common coin with ultra high appeal for the grade, nothing more elaborate as you seem to want it to be. >>
There's more to it than that.
The coin is an R1---it's common---but besides being subject to people who collect these coins by variety, it also is a great fit for someone collecting by date... this increases the interest in the piece. More demand means a stronger price.
Actually Rob, you are the one who is wrong. The coin is not some "rare die marraige". Its an R1 in fact, and one of only 2 varieties of the 1808 half cent. Its basically just a common coin with ultra high appeal for the grade, nothing more elaborate as you seem to want it to be.
Umm.. last time I checked there were three varieties of 1808 but that is besides the point. It is an R1 coin with an estimated surviving population of somewhere in the neighborhood of 3600 pieces at last study. A bit different in terms of an R1 in many other series. Throw out the swill and garbage and the reworked of the 3600. Then get a handle on the population of average for the grade coins out of the remaining survivors. Now, what does a choice for the grade 1808 sound like?
Some of these prices being asked by dealers seem to be at 2012 price levels
Well that remains to be seen doesn't it? I mean, if the coin is in someones inventory until 2012 then yes it would seem that it is priced at year 2012 prices. If you wake from a slumber a month from now and it is gone, was it priced at 2008 prices or 2012 prices?
Too many people put too much weight in price guides without being familar enough with the particular series they happen to be looking at in the moment.
Pursuing coins for investment purpose is a dangerous game. Pursuing coins as a hobby is fun. Having your hobby turn out to be a nice investment? Priceless....
My father in law collected from the mid 1950's thru the 1970's. He lived in North Dakota. My wife remembers going on family vacations meant stopping at many many banks on the way to the vacation spot. Her dad would go into a bank and puchase a bag, bags what ever they had in Morgan silver dollars. My wife's mother would pre sort them for her dad. This was repeated year and year after year. He put together 6 sets of Morgans that way for the most part. Loaded up on all the GSA dollars he could get. A few coin shows sprinkled here and there. A lot of reciets from mail order companies. I have all of his coin records, some of the prices he paid are unreal. BU morgans for face to 17 dollars. lol. He never found a 1895 or 5 or 6 others thru his bank searches. There is a reciept for a 1895 that he paid 500 dollars for in late 60's.
After reading all the other threads similiar to this i have concluded that we are talking about 2 extremes. The upper high end and the regular run of the mill coins. A problem i see is dealers and collectors alike are trying to widen the window of what is really rare and and deserving of 3.5 and more times greysheet. I kind of got caught up in this but figured out i am more of a dreck or widget collector. I bought my wife a bag of 5000 wheat cents to search and that has taking on a life of its own. We are going thru 20,000 to 30,000 a month when we can get them. We are searching thru 10,000 unc memorial a month. In the last 6 months we have found quite a few nice dates/errors wrong planchets etc. To me this is like old school collecting. Finding 1909 s circ cents and other semi keys and errors at 4 cents a pop is cool and a nice change from writing those 500 dollar and up checks for a coin. Buying coins at 40k and up seems insane to me if the price guide says 3k. Some will hold and increase rather well and some will not. Coins are hawked to the masses as an investment. Gold plated state quarters and the like by TV coin hustlers etc. Some of the guys writing checks for 40k and up using reps and dealers seem to be just aquiring a coin collection and not collecting. I buy and sell quite a bit. If i sell a coin and only make 10 percent i do not think i did well. I get to hold quite a few coins and them pass them on down. It is a thrill to find a 1909 s for 4 cents and then it can be exciting to sell and buy. I do look at coins as a investment. My goal is to end up with my collection free from the profit of the coins sold. What happens to the value of them after that is no big deal to me. If the coin market totally collasped ( i doubt that will ever happen) and 1909 VDB MPL's get to sheet, i am buying a couple. At this point and time only my Matte proof Lincolns are well over geysheet and the pcgs price guide and not that far over really. I do think they are over priced so i am glad it is a very short run. The MPL's bring out the worst in me. I say i will take it before i ask the price.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
The simple answer is yes; however, it all depends on how/where you buy them. If you go down to the local B&M you're basically screwed, but if you take the time to seek out good coins at good prices from auctions, shows, and other collectors, you can put together any set without fear of getting killed if you have to sell it a year later.
The big problem with making money in coins is disposition. Just like with stock, you don't lose a dime if you don't sell. But boy can you lose when you sell. People who are very good at picking out nice coins for the right money can ride the razor trying to recover their "investment" on exit. The problem is that unless you can specifically target collectors who will pay fair money for each coin, you are stuck with dealers who necessarily will have to discount to make a profit or, worst of all, consign to competitive auction where the typical 15% or so kitty for the auction company often can put you in the red. The dealer might be your last option (as you stated) but that isn't always because they gouge. They have to make money and have limited capital to get the cash flowing. Some are goniffs, but many are on the level but strapped with their own expenses.
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<< <i>
<< <i>The 3.5 times thread looks like the OP was wrong, and the coin is a rare die marriage that a specialty collector, not someone looking for sheet priced common coins, would buy. >>
Actually Rob, you are the one who is wrong. The coin is not some "rare die marraige". Its an R1 in fact, and one of only 2 varieties of the 1808 half cent. Its basically just a common coin with ultra high appeal for the grade, nothing more elaborate as you seem to want it to be. >>
I did not participate in that conversation and very well could be wrong. I read one page of the thread and it looked like someone had chimed in that the seller was going to chime in later, and someone else chimed in that it was a rare coin, something about a 117 vs. a 116 (overton numbers IIRC?). But even all that was way over my head, as I do not collect those coins in any type of serious form. Again, I did not keep up with the whole thread, although, kind of like slowing down to see a car crash, I did find it funny you seem to be in a 2 week rant about the same thing over and over again since you attended a coin show.
This practice has reached epidemic proportions it seems.It's like people think the ole grey sheet makes one an instant expert who can say and do no wrong,no matter the series.
"Pursuing coins for investment purpose is a dangerous game. Pursuing coins as a hobby is fun. Having your hobby turn out to be a nice investment? Priceless...."
Absolutely.Unfortunately, too many are trying to play the "coins will make me rich" game.They might have pockets full of money but are definitely short in the knowledge area. They are also doing their part to bring the hobby down by making it less fun for the rest of us.
The measure of intelligence is the ability to change.
Albert Einstein (14 March 1879--18 April 1955)
Back in 1979 and ’80 I heard my dealer friends talking about the “great rips” they had made at “only” double the sheet price. One of their purchases was an original 1912 Proof set at $20,000. Well the crash came, and they were lucky to get out of that deal by selling the set for $14,000. Before the dust had settled the set was down to $6 or $7 thousand.
The market for “stuff” (run of the mill “widget” coins) is dead as a doornail. Only the better coins are really selling, and many of them are now at very inflated prices IMO. I’d say that caution is in order, but for old guys like me their may not be enough waiting time. Still I’m not thrilled with this market at all, and I would not be upset if there were a correction.
Book your coins at 50% of purchase price, expense the other 50% as the cost of enjoyment, and you'll come out fine at the end of the day. Maybe even better than expected.
Yes, this is a spam
Back in the 1990s, there was a lot of this resistance going on at shows (and much of it was coming from me.
I have softened up a bit, admittedly. I would not pay above Ask for ANYTHING in the 1990s, no matter how PQ. Now I pay 10-20% over Ask for coins in PCGS holders that I think are super-PQ, especially if they might upgrade. But I can afford to do this because I know that in a long-term bull market, that a 10% premium isn't going to mean anything next year when the coin is worth 15-20% more due to price inflation. Yes, my luck will run out eventually when the market slows, but I have been accumulating undervalued items steadily during the past 8 years, and it just isn't going to hurt me that much. More recently, I have started returning low-end coins to sellers, refusing to pay 10% over fair market for coins I need in my set, sending overgraded items back under Grade Guarantee, and just balking in general at overpriced items. I think this market is running out of steam because of the simple fact that there aren't that many underpriced coins out there any more, like there were 5 years ago, and underpricing was what fueled this market in the first place.
To answer the OP's question, I personally think that any set of Barbers in MS65 put together quickly at current MS65 prices from retail dealers' websites, will be ugly and overpriced. Be prepared for lots of MS-64 coins in MS-65 holders, or be prepared to assemble your set slowly and selectively. Personally, I have been having an awful time finishing off my PCGS Barber dime set, and I mostly need common P-mints to finish the set, not key dates. Liberty Nickels may be a different story. Numerous nice MS64 and MS65 coins are out there, but competition has not been so fierce for these, compared to Barbers, and markups are lower. I think a nice set in PCGS MS64 to MS65 can be done below PCGS price guide levels, without being forced to settle for low-end coins. Whether that will last for much longer remains to be seen.
<< <i>Here is a question for collectors, along the lines of this thread: do any of you have the stones to show "price resistance"? By that, I mean a dealer hands you a super-PQ, monster toned coin in your favorite series, and wants 3.5x sheet for it. You say, "that is too high. This coin is worth 25% over Ask at best." The dealer says, "I paid 2.5x sheet for it, though!" You say, "sorry, you might be in trouble with that coin, it's just too high," and move on to look at his/her other coins. That is price resistance at its finest- refusing to pay too much for a nice coin that is priced beyond reality. >>
Sure I've got the stones, but you don't want to use that line too often. Getting the reputation as a cheapskate can knock you out of the running when a nice coin comes along. If the dealers decide that you are nothing but a "tire kicker" you will be passed over when the good stuff is around.
At same time you don't want the reputation as "Daddy dumb tail" (sic) who will pay whatever the stupid price is. Those guys are around too, and they are nothing buy meat on the table for some dealers. What I'm saying is you have know your series and something about the market.
Billjones- When you say the market is dead for run of the mill widget coins what are you refering to? What type of coin? Only the better coins are really selling, and many of them at inflated prices. What coins are you refering to there also? Is it all in the rarity number?
Over at the other registry site i am number 9 at the moment with my set of proof Liberty V-nickels. I will be able to move to 7th but no higher unless i am willing to go for PROOFS graded PF67 and higher or cameo's etc. I think i have put together a nice eye appeal set without breaking the bank. Most of my coins are high end 64's with a few 63 cameo's mixed in. I have a few 65's, a 66 and one proof 67. ( 1909 NGC, price guide shows like 2350 on this) I bought the proof 67 last year from DLRC for 1150. 1909's have the highest number of 67's graded by far. I have paid more for the coins bought from Ebay than from coins purchased elseware. I have looked at 100's of certified proof V-nickels. I personally can't see spending 40k or more to move up the registry. I probably have 17k in my set give or take. Is the difference in the coins worth it? To me it is not. BUT IS THIS THE AREA WHERE THE 3.5 TIMES SHEET STARTS TO HIT?? GOING FROM COMMON PF 63-65 AND MOVING UP TO 67'S AND 68'S?? I built this set for myself and myself only after searching thru various series to decide what to collect. One of the reasons for the V-nickel proofs was the pricing seemed more in line to me and nice mirrored proofs make me drool.
In my opinion MPL's are over priced big time. The top 1 percent or less have all the eye appeal and command big dollars, but i feel the coins on the lower end of the spectrum are suffering from the price gouging. I have 13 MPL's right now. Started buying them less than 1 year ago. I was paying 300 to 450 for 63's & 64's. The last couple i have bought were 900, 1350 and 799. No differnet from the 300 to 450 dollar coins from 8 months ago. I know of a MPL that sold a few months back at Heritage's big auction for 9k and is now on a dealers site for 15k. Are you willing to tell me that all the dealers and bidders that looked at this coin and decided it was worth 9k were wrong and it is a 15k coin? Of course it has not sold yet but i do not see the dealer taking 6k off the price. I am not dealer bashing here, i am trying to understand what is going on. There is no way i would sell coins for a 10 percent spread if i was a dealer, esp. a B & M dealer.
I sometimes have a hard time believing people who say if i like the coin i do not care what the price is. At 3.5 times over we start talking coins over 2500 and to the moon. Not really chump change. If you worked for your money and can afford 10k coins you did not get yourself into this position ( to collect coins) by making stupid decisions. My wife and i make what i consider decent income. I am self employeed. ( a little under 200k a year) Yet i can not make my self believe a coin is worth 7k if the guides say 2.5k We work hard for our income and try to make sound decisions in all areas of our life. ( coins, cars, vacations etc.) Maybe 200k income is low end now, but most of the people i know do not make it. I have my retirement prety well mapped out and just waiting for the day to pull the plug. I want to collect nice coins for pleasure and future profit but coins 3.5 times scare me big time.
What is the dividing line between common and 3.5 times or more coins? I think the line is getting blurred, or bigger and i really do not know what coins we are talking about. Is it top pops, rairty numbers or??
Thanks for the replies, Mark
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
If you then come to the conclusion that the market has overpriced the coin, then that's just going to be a difficult argument to win, as the buyers have spoken with their dollars.
All of this argumentation about sheet prices seems absurd to me. Sheet prices are potentially less accurate than Zillow's house prices.
Sheet prices might be a starting point, but I do not see them as a replacement for proper price research. Do your own market research...leaving it to others can be bad for your wallet.
What is considered rare and what is common? Is there any one guide out there everyone agrees on? It is buyer Beware.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
<< <i>Billjones- When you say the market is dead for run of the mill widget coins what are you refering to? What type of coin? Only the better coins are really selling, and many of them at inflated prices. What coins are you refering to there also? Is it all in the rarity number? >>
- Common date Morgan dollars in MS-63 and 64
- Most of the early commemorative half dollars in less than Gem Unc. grades except "key coins" like the Hawaiian.
- Common date 20th century coins in less than MS-66.
In short anything that is not particularly rare or viewed as a "key date."
Down here is Florida I saw a huge drop off in business after the summer of hurricanes we endured a couple of years ago. Now the small collectors are hurting with high energy prices and insurance bills.
Yes the high end of the market is doing well … may “too well,” (too much speculation buying) but the low end aside from gold and silver bullion is not well at all.
A sharp collector, investor or dealer can work deals to pick up select coins that are essentially at wholesale levels where they can be sold off quickly for little or no loss. You just have to be the 1st or 2nd person in line when something gets sold rather than the 3rd, 4th, or 5th person when additional 10-15% markups take their tolls. As far as how long it takes to complete a set...it depends. Once the economy slows further, nice MS Barber coins will be easier to find. the Proofs are always available. Even choice MS Barber coins are around if you get busy. Superb gems or pop tops are a diff market.
I would expect that with Floriday being particularly hard hit with the housing doldrums, that portions of the local coin market are already suffering more than other regions of the country. MS 63 or 64 common Morgans as well as say 63-64 Common commems have not been strong since 1990. They were dead long before this year or even last year. Investors and speculators are taking over the coin market once again and GEM or superb condition material is what they're after.
One of my better local shops charges me from bid to ask off CDN. If a coin is PQ or somewhat underrated due to eye appeal, rarity, etc.....I can get in the coin at a level where I am immediately at break even or a slight profit position. Of course it would take 200 yrs to build a choice UNC Barber set in this fashion.
roadrunner