What term was that I read, "unrecognized recession"? It's not a recession no matter what the politicians say until economic indicators identify that the economy is in a recession. Recessions happen solely due to public confidence. Just like in 1990, after enough politicians screamed recession, we finally drove the economy down to have one.
Bottom line, don't be fooled, buy and buy often. Gold, silver, platinum or even lead. The big money-movers want you to sell and be scared and then they will come in a TAKE your profits away like the greedy SOBs they are. BUY, BUY and MORE BUY. If you had listened 60 days ago then you'd be $500 per oz richer on platinum and more than $100 per oz richer on gold, I think that would have covered the interest on your credit card and then some. Too many are ready to give up and call surrender just like some of our wannabe politicians want to do with American ideals.
I say, "Never give up. Never surrender." - Capt Nesbitt.
<< <i>What term was that I read, "unrecognized recession"? It's not a recession no matter what the politicians say until economic indicators identify that the economy is in a recession. Recessions happen solely due to public confidence. Just like in 1990, after enough politicians screamed recession, we finally drove the economy down to have one. >>
I would agree completely that when enough people start believing the media hype, it tends to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I'd even say that public perception fueled by media hype can turn weak growth into a mild recession and turn a mild recession into a deeper one if it scares enough people into becoming "defensive" with their spending, their saving and their investing.
But there's no way a recession is ONLY a public crisis of confidence in the economy.
I've been seriously considering selling off a large part of my collection putting the proceeds in CDs, and setting on the sidelines for a year or two. The problem is that with my luck as soon as I sell the prices will double. I would also like to move to a better date & grade of coin than I now collect and selling off a large part of my existing collection would allow that. The biggest problem I have is time - I just don't have enough and I am traveling so much that listing and selling them myself is nearly impossible. Even the time needed to get them ready for consignment is prohibitive.
Who is General Failure, and why is he reading my hard drive?
Increasingly high prices are disconcerting, but what bothers me just as much is decreasing opportunities to buy nice collector coins when I walk into dealer shops in Arizona, California, and Florida. Coins that are all there for their grades are disappearing into collections, and many dealers have said that they aren't seeing much fresh material to restock their inventories with. This is happening at just about all price levels above $100 or so. And this is happening in a bull market. What will happen five years from now?
I'm buying as fast as I can. Stocks suck for me, and the only thing I trust about American politicians is that they will run the US dollar into the ground. So I like rare coins and gold commems.
Aslong as I have some play money, Ill be buying the things I like. Prices will go up, prices will go down, I will be buying what I need and what I like.
As others have said truly rare coins will hold there value overtime, but I am more choosy now. If you look at some of the recent auctions for high end coins, it looks like some deep pocket investor type, as oppossed to collecter type money is chasing some of these issues and that eventually leads to a top, imho, but it could be at still higher prices and no one knows exactly when.
When investors got involved the last time in a big way, in the 80s and people bid up saints and morgans to ridiculous levels, they were trying to turn coins into a asset class like stocks or bonds. Coins are not such an asset class, imho because collectors tend to have a grasp on what a coin should be worth where as investors just buy coins as widgets albeit expensive ones in the hope of selling it higher. So I think collectors have to trust their sense of what a coin is worth, and not reach in price. Investors and speculators will probably keep buying and just hope they can sell it before the music stops, because two major emotions rule prices of any market, coins, stocks, debt, metals, whatever...and that's fear and greed. coin prices have gone up but by the nature of greed, speculators will buy the most right near the top. If you could get a good handle on global retail buys of bullion, based on the percentage of new buys you could probably figure out when the metals were close to peak, at least in the short term.
It must be so -- CNBC and the media are making us think so...
(No, I'm not Pollyannaish about the current economic situation. But I also think too many people listening to too many talking heads talking too much "doomsday" will do nothing but make it worse.)
<< <i>Yes, very much so. I just can't afford the stuff I want at these levels. Bifurcated market or not, prices are so high that a correction is inevitable -- I can't say when, but this sort of sharp run up in prices isn't sustainable without occasional corrections.
I'll be waiting for the correction to arrive, and maybe then I can start adding to my collections again. Until then, other than an occasional fairly small purchase, I'm on the sidelines. >>
problem is you and everyone else will be waiting for a correction....that spells demand
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
For those of you who think coins are overpriced, this is a good point, why not sell the coins you have? >>
Because they will be even more overpriced in the future.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>No, I am just changing focus. I am updating my current sets since i haven't added neary anything since 1964. The darkside still has a lot of bargains. Bob >>
Ahh, the darkside, still overlooked and misunderstood. I love it.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Cash or coins? USDs are not going to gain significant buying power anytime soon if ever. Holding onto cash or liquidating into a held cash position is something where inflation should be a consideration. If the whole coin market was to decline, one could (assuming the buyers were there) sell off what they don't want and buy what they do. A declining market is ideal for that as you reduce the tax liability on the gains and end up with the same collection result. Of course, in-kind trades are always preferred. But it is like selling and buying a house in a given market. Who cares if you make a killing on a sale if it will cost yu a commensurately high price to get into the next house.
As for me, I am increasingly selective in my purchases. This has very little to do with the state of the market (which I am not so quick to dismiss as declining BTW) nor the economy. Just part of the continual refinement of buying habits after learning many lessons over a long time. I am considering selling some (by no means close to all) of my coins to gets them into other colelctions and then just moving into other coins.
For fun, low end widgets that do not require much thought and price is largely based on the metal value, I will probably cut back. Anyone who lived through the rapid rise and fall of PMs in the earlier 80's does not easily forget how fast widgets fell in price from the top. For high end, really good stuff, I will just continue to look and ponder. That said, I really do not know where PMs will go, but it is interesting to watch though.
It seem like collectors responding to this tread are unhappy about the high coin prices. I would to suggest that you trade all your over priced coins for the much more reasonable Beanie Babies. Beanie babies will never be expensive again and you can be a happy collector for many years to come.
I never buy much. In 05 I bought TWO coins, in '06, I bought SIX. I haven't bought anything since last spring. Of the six coins I bought last year, most of them were attractive type coins in series which are not popular (Lib Nickels, an SLQ, a Barber Half, etc).
Early 19th Century type I've seen with very few exceptions has either been overgraded, too expensive, or cleaned coins which have been deemed to be "market acceptable" (ie., Bust $s). Although virtually everything I need for my type set is early 19th century, I have only bought one coin for such type set in the last three years.
I think the message I want to put out to readers is DON"T 'SETTLE.' Ie., "well, I've been looking for one of these for three years, and although the price on this one is too high and it's not quite as nice as I want it, I can get it now." DON'T GO THERE. YOU'VE WORKED TOO HARD FOR YOUR MONEY TO SPEND IT LIKE THAT.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
I think the message I want to put out to readers is DON"T 'SETTLE.' Ie., "well, I've been looking for one of these for three years, and although the price on this one is too high and it's not quite as nice as I want it, I can get it now." DON'T GO THERE. YOU'VE WORKED TOO HARD FOR YOUR MONEY TO SPEND IT LIKE THAT.
I tend to agree, with one caveat: Know the real price levels so you know what it will take to buy a truly great coin if it does come along. Desirable PQ coins of any rarity are not usually available at 'ASK'.
<< <i>I think the message I want to put out to readers is DON"T 'SETTLE.' Ie., "well, I've been looking for one of these for three years, and although the price on this one is too high and it's not quite as nice as I want it, I can get it now." DON'T GO THERE. YOU'VE WORKED TOO HARD FOR YOUR MONEY TO SPEND IT LIKE THAT.
I tend to agree, with one caveat: Know the real price levels so you know what it will take to buy a truly great coin if it does come along. Desirable PQ coins of any rarity are not usually available at 'ASK'. >>
<< <i>It seem like collectors responding to this tread are unhappy about the high coin prices. I would to suggest that you trade all your over priced coins for the much more reasonable Beanie Babies. Beanie babies will never be expensive again and you can be a happy collector for many years to come. >>
It's not that I don't like coins, its just I've watched some tops of markets. Precious Metals in the early 80's, sports cards mid 90's, beanie babies same time period, tech stocks 2000, housing now...all have one thing in common and it's emotions and greed out of control. Sorry, 3kish grand for some low eye-appeal 1904-S VF Barber Halves on a certain dealers website is a sign on the wall to me. Talk about being left holding the bag (yes, I realize it's one example...there are many out there).
I wouldn't compare today with the 80s. First of all, there was no Internet and what we have is a global coin market. If you think all these coins are being bought just by Americans then I would have to say you are mistaken. Rare and semi-rare US coins are being bought from people around the world especially with the dollar so low. That means these coins probably won't be coming back.
The other thing mentioned is to keep all your cash. That's NOT smart at all. Keep enough cash for backup but if you don't invest then you are losing money each and every day. We have a huge manufacturing commodities market in turmoil and the prices are going no where but up so we are seeing fairly substantial gains in a relatively short time. The world is getting wealthier every day and more and more people will vie for coins that are increasingly less available.
Buy, buy and buy some more. Shop till you drop and then crawl to the next sale.
Sorry, 3kish grand for some low eye-appeal 1904-S VF Barber Halves on a certain dealers website is a sign on the wall to me. Talk about being left holding the bag (yes, I realize it's one example...there are many out there). >>
You bring up a good point, although, separate from the true value of coins. Some sellers have outrageous asking prices that make me wonder do they really think their coin is that valuable or are they waiting for some ignorant buyer to give them a lucky sale. Often I am tempted to submit a question to the seller asking why there coin is so much more expensive than other sellers? But I never do it. Except once when I offered to pay a seller 300% of the Grey Sheet price for his coin that has been available on e-bay for several years. His response was, this coin is undamaged and thus is worth many times more than I offered. I wonder how many years the coin will be up for sale?
<< <i>You bring up a good point, although, separate from the true value of coins. Some sellers have outrageous asking prices that make me wonder do they really think their coin is that valuable or are they waiting for some ignorant buyer to give them a lucky sale. >>
Sometimes a dealer may have an average example of a coin that just went for moon money in auction because it was extremely PQ for the grade. They may be hoping to land a sucker who thinks all 1904-S VF Barber halves are created equal and that if an exquisite VF specimen sold for $3000 (especially if they aren't educated enough to know the difference between a gem for the grade and a widget), $3000 is just the going rate for a VF.
i dread the higher prices but dread the doors of affordablity that will be closing even moreso
I agree with this.Be smart and let someone else pay sucker prices for those so-called rarities. And why is it that there seems to be so many "rarities" for sale when prices are going up,up,up?
Affordability is a concern for the vast majority of collectors. Perhaps 1, maybe 2, percent of collectors don't really concern themselves too much with affordability. The other 98-99 % definitely do.
Whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted with important matters.
At the February Long Beach show, the coins that matched with my want list were either too high priced, or too low quality for me to want to bring home. Several others commented similarly that the Long Beach show has gotten so expensive to set up at, that dealers often want to price their material higher than at other venues.
Online, I got stung with a bad Ebay seller last year on a big transaction and have been cautious ever since. I got all my money back, but it wasn't a pleasant experience. It was non-delivery, straight out scam.
There are certain kinds of coins I won't buy on Ebay, certified or not. Seems like a certainty to me, that is where the counterfeiters will unload when they perfect their phony slabs. The minor details such as fonts from the ones caught early are easy mistakes to correct. There are three types of potential problems, fake coin in fake slabs, real coins in fake slabs at a higher grade, high quality fake coins getting through the grading services and making it into a real slab.
The high precious metals prices make it tough to want to buy bullion type coins, with the prices seeming to climb every day/week. Like many, I have been loading up over time. For newcomers that don't have any, that is what I would suggest, loading up over time getting an average price.
As for collector coins, I do keep looking, but do find myself looking at different areas than I used to. I think it is a time to be patient and wait for the right coins at the right prices.
Comments
<< <i>I guess this is "good news" for 3CN as they're perpetually at the bottom of the cycle! >>
That impaired proof 1877 3CN going for $2070 in the Uhrich sale would seem to be a counterexample. The exception that proves the rule?
Bottom line, don't be fooled, buy and buy often. Gold, silver, platinum or even lead. The big money-movers want you to sell and be scared and then they will come in a TAKE your profits away like the greedy SOBs they are. BUY, BUY and MORE BUY. If you had listened 60 days ago then you'd be $500 per oz richer on platinum and more than $100 per oz richer on gold, I think that would have covered the interest on your credit card and then some. Too many are ready to give up and call surrender just like some of our wannabe politicians want to do with American ideals.
I say, "Never give up. Never surrender." - Capt Nesbitt.
I think that would have covered the interest on your credit card and then some.
If you are actually suggesting that people should borrow money off their credit cards to buy precious metals, you're nuts...
<< <i>What term was that I read, "unrecognized recession"? It's not a recession no matter what the politicians say until economic indicators identify that the economy is in a recession. Recessions happen solely due to public confidence. Just like in 1990, after enough politicians screamed recession, we finally drove the economy down to have one. >>
I would agree completely that when enough people start believing the media hype, it tends to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I'd even say that public perception fueled by media hype can turn weak growth into a mild recession and turn a mild recession into a deeper one if it scares enough people into becoming "defensive" with their spending, their saving and their investing.
But there's no way a recession is ONLY a public crisis of confidence in the economy.
Hoard the keys.
switched to collecting So Called Dollars. They
are beautiful and much lower in price.
Camelot
<< <i>Recessions happen solely due to public confidence
I think that would have covered the interest on your credit card and then some.
If you are actually suggesting that people should borrow money off their credit cards to buy precious metals, you're nuts... >>
Okay, and your point is?
********************
Silver is the mortar that binds the bricks of loyalty.
I'd have a lot better luck buying toners off ebay if it weren't for the flippers, they're usually good for 20-30% price-flation!
<< <i>
<< <i>Recessions happen solely due to public confidence
I think that would have covered the interest on your credit card and then some.
If you are actually suggesting that people should borrow money off their credit cards to buy precious metals, you're nuts... >>
Okay, and your point is?
Oops - sorry - didn't know I was restating the obvious.
When investors got involved the last time in a big way, in the 80s and people bid up saints and morgans to ridiculous levels, they were trying to turn coins into a asset class like stocks or bonds. Coins are not such an asset class, imho because collectors tend to have a grasp on what a coin should be worth where as investors just buy coins as widgets albeit expensive ones in the hope of selling it higher. So I think collectors have to trust their sense of what a coin is worth, and not reach in price. Investors and speculators will probably keep buying and just hope they can sell it before the music stops, because two major emotions rule prices of any market, coins, stocks, debt, metals, whatever...and that's fear and greed. coin prices have gone up but by the nature of greed, speculators will buy the most right near the top. If you could get a good handle on global retail buys of bullion, based on the percentage of new buys you could probably figure out when the metals were close to peak, at least in the short term.
<< <i>We're headed into a long hard recession. >>
It must be so -- CNBC and the media are making us think so...
(No, I'm not Pollyannaish about the current economic situation. But I also think too many people listening to too many talking heads talking too much "doomsday" will do nothing but make it worse.)
<< <i>Yes, very much so. I just can't afford the stuff I want at these levels. Bifurcated market or not, prices are so high that a correction is inevitable -- I can't say when, but this sort of sharp run up in prices isn't sustainable without occasional corrections.
I'll be waiting for the correction to arrive, and maybe then I can start adding to my collections again. Until then, other than an occasional fairly small purchase, I'm on the sidelines. >>
problem is you and everyone else will be waiting for a correction....that spells demand
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Well... with my physical holdings of PM's..... when I find a piece that I want, it will cost me a lot less now than if I had held the cash. >>
Much wisdom emanates from this statement.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>It is time to sell, not buy. >>
For those of you who think coins are overpriced, this is a good point, why not sell the coins you have?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>For those of you who think coins are overpriced, this is a good point, why not sell the coins you have? >>
I sold off my type set last summer, which represented 1/3 of the value in my collection.
<< <i>
<< <i>It is time to sell, not buy. >>
For those of you who think coins are overpriced, this is a good point, why not sell the coins you have? >>
Because they will be even more overpriced in the future.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>No, I am just changing focus. I am updating my current sets since i haven't added neary anything since 1964. The darkside still has a lot of bargains. Bob >>
Ahh, the darkside, still overlooked and misunderstood. I love it.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
As for me, I am increasingly selective in my purchases. This has very little to do with the state of the market (which I am not so quick to dismiss as declining BTW) nor the economy. Just part of the continual refinement of buying habits after learning many lessons over a long time. I am considering selling some (by no means close to all) of my coins to gets them into other colelctions and then just moving into other coins.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
Gotta disagree with this - unless you're talking foreign currency, that is!
Early 19th Century type I've seen with very few exceptions has either been overgraded, too expensive, or cleaned coins which have been deemed to be "market acceptable" (ie., Bust $s). Although virtually everything I need for my type set is early 19th century, I have only bought one coin for such type set in the last three years.
I think the message I want to put out to readers is DON"T 'SETTLE.' Ie., "well, I've been looking for one of these for three years, and although the price on this one is too high and it's not quite as nice as I want it, I can get it now." DON'T GO THERE. YOU'VE WORKED TOO HARD FOR YOUR MONEY TO SPEND IT LIKE THAT.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I tend to agree, with one caveat: Know the real price levels so you know what it will take to buy a truly great coin if it does come along. Desirable PQ coins of any rarity are not usually available at 'ASK'.
<< <i>I think the message I want to put out to readers is DON"T 'SETTLE.' Ie., "well, I've been looking for one of these for three years, and although the price on this one is too high and it's not quite as nice as I want it, I can get it now." DON'T GO THERE. YOU'VE WORKED TOO HARD FOR YOUR MONEY TO SPEND IT LIKE THAT.
I tend to agree, with one caveat: Know the real price levels so you know what it will take to buy a truly great coin if it does come along. Desirable PQ coins of any rarity are not usually available at 'ASK'. >>
<< <i>It seem like collectors responding to this tread are unhappy about the high coin prices. I would to suggest that you trade all your over priced coins for the much more reasonable Beanie Babies. Beanie babies will never be expensive again and you can be a happy collector for many years to come. >>
It's not that I don't like coins, its just I've watched some tops of markets. Precious Metals in the early 80's, sports cards mid 90's, beanie babies same time period, tech stocks 2000, housing now...all have one thing in common and it's emotions and greed out of control. Sorry, 3kish grand for some low eye-appeal 1904-S VF Barber Halves on a certain dealers website is a sign on the wall to me. Talk about being left holding the bag (yes, I realize it's one example...there are many out there).
The other thing mentioned is to keep all your cash. That's NOT smart at all. Keep enough cash for backup but if you don't invest then you are losing money each and every day. We have a huge manufacturing commodities market in turmoil and the prices are going no where but up so we are seeing fairly substantial gains in a relatively short time. The world is getting wealthier every day and more and more people will vie for coins that are increasingly less available.
Buy, buy and buy some more. Shop till you drop and then crawl to the next sale.
You bring up a good point, although, separate from the true value of coins. Some sellers have outrageous asking prices that make me wonder do they really think their coin is that valuable or are they waiting for some ignorant buyer to give them a lucky sale. Often I am tempted to submit a question to the seller asking why there coin is so much more expensive than other sellers? But I never do it. Except once when I offered to pay a seller 300% of the Grey Sheet price for his coin that has been available on e-bay for several years. His response was, this coin is undamaged and thus is worth many times more than I offered. I wonder how many years the coin will be up for sale?
<< <i>You bring up a good point, although, separate from the true value of coins. Some sellers have outrageous asking prices that make me wonder do they really think their coin is that valuable or are they waiting for some ignorant buyer to give them a lucky sale. >>
Sometimes a dealer may have an average example of a coin that just went for moon money in auction because it was extremely PQ for the grade. They may be hoping to land a sucker who thinks all 1904-S VF Barber halves are created equal and that if an exquisite VF specimen sold for $3000 (especially if they aren't educated enough to know the difference between a gem for the grade and a widget), $3000 is just the going rate for a VF.
I agree with this.Be smart and let someone else pay sucker prices for those so-called rarities. And why is it that there seems to be so many "rarities" for sale when prices are going up,up,up?
Affordability is a concern for the vast majority of collectors. Perhaps 1, maybe 2, percent of collectors don't really concern themselves too much with affordability. The other 98-99 % definitely do.
Whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted with important matters.
<< <i>Going to the Baltimore show tommorow but won`t buy too much. Like you said, prices are higher than I want to pay right now.
Wish I could go to the Baltimore show - or just about any decent sized show for that matter.
<< <i>
<< <i>Going to the Baltimore show tommorow but won`t buy too much. Like you said, prices are higher than I want to pay right now.
Wish I could go to the Baltimore show - or just about any decent sized show for that matter. >>
Why can`t ya`? Doesn`t cost a dime to get in.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Going to the Baltimore show tommorow but won`t buy too much. Like you said, prices are higher than I want to pay right now.
Wish I could go to the Baltimore show - or just about any decent sized show for that matter. >>
Why can`t ya`? Doesn`t cost a dime to get in.
Because I will be spending the next 21 days in beautiful downtown Sylacauga, Alabama.
Online, I got stung with a bad Ebay seller last year on a big transaction and have been cautious ever since. I got all my money back, but it wasn't a pleasant experience. It was non-delivery, straight out scam.
There are certain kinds of coins I won't buy on Ebay, certified or not. Seems like a certainty to me, that is where the counterfeiters will unload when they perfect their phony slabs. The minor details such as fonts from the ones caught early are easy mistakes to correct. There are three types of potential problems, fake coin in fake slabs, real coins in fake slabs at a higher grade, high quality fake coins getting through the grading services and making it into a real slab.
The high precious metals prices make it tough to want to buy bullion type coins, with the prices seeming to climb every day/week. Like many, I have been loading up over time. For newcomers that don't have any, that is what I would suggest, loading up over time getting an average price.
As for collector coins, I do keep looking, but do find myself looking at different areas than I used to. I think it is a time to be patient and wait for the right coins at the right prices.