Is anyone else backing off collecting because of high prices?

stev32k

Not sure if I'm alone in my feelings that coin prices have gotten too high. The series I collect most - Trade Dollars and seated halves in AU - have increased so much recently that I've just about quit buying. Coins that could be had for $350 - $700 a year ago are now going for $500 - $1,000. Is it just me or has anyone else noticed this?

ziggy29

Yes, very much so. I just can't afford the stuff I want at these levels. Bifurcated market or not, prices are so high that a correction is inevitable -- I can't say when, but this sort of sharp run up in prices isn't sustainable without occasional corrections.

I'll be waiting for the correction to arrive, and maybe then I can start adding to my collections again. Until then, other than an occasional fairly small purchase, I'm on the sidelines.

STONE

Ziggy, I agree that a correction is inevitable, but if everyone else is like you and waiting for the prices to drop and then they buy, this will continue a trend of higher prices since the demand will continue to grow.

Stev32k, I've slowed down on the area of collecting that I was working on before the price hikes, and the coins I'm collecting now I enjoy just as much, and these inflated prices really haven't hurt this series.

Prethen

Oddly enough, in general, the Sheet isn't really reflecting those higher prices. Why is that? Is it because dealers aren't willing to budge on the bid prices and are aiming low (price-wise)? I'm not referring to very rare or very high grade material.

291fifth

I effectively stopped buying some time back. I'm priced out of the market. I also think that coins are a poor value for the money at today's prices.

Maybe I've just been collecting too long, but I look at what people are paying for things like capped bust halves and just shake my head.

dimples

I stopped buying buffalo nickels in the seventies when they started costing 10 cents each instead of 71/2 cents each.
That was a 50% increase in a year.
Everything goes up my friend. Even the cost of hobbies.

mr1931S

The series I collect most - Trade Dollars and seated halves in AU - have increased so much recently that I've just about quit buying.

There's a force out there that I call "collective greed" that is responsible.The market is being fueled by collective greed.

stev32k

There is a huge difference in gray sheet prices vs what I have to pay for the coins I collect. It's almost like I drive the prices up. If I bid what I think is a fair price someone else is willing to pay 50% more. If I don't bid some of them go for reasonable amounts.

fc

when it comes to lib half eagles in the grade ranges i can afford.. the rising
price of gold as a PM has driven up prices... yet when i can buy a southern gold
half eagle for 25 bucks over its intrinsic value i have no problem doing so.

any lib half eagle over 500 dollars has stayed in the same price range since
i started collecting them. very few are going up in price unless you look at the
uber high end.

so no, i am not backing off collecting in the least. as time goes on many of my
purchases have been fully covered by the coin's intrinsic value.

think of a no motto i bought for 200-225 is now worth that in the gold alone.
but to be honest, i choose this path for this exact reason.

i would hate to be collecting silver dollars that are quite common in MSXX for
100-300 each when the silver is only worth ~15 bucks.

ARCO

Since I started collecting world gold, yes, it is expensive as hell to buy the larger gold sizes. I have also stopped buying Barber halves because those prices have gone sky high also. I am paying the same prices for VG10 and fine coins today that used to buy VF and XF pieces five years ago.

Tyler

fc

<< <i>Since I started collecting world gold, yes, it is expensive as hell to buy the larger gold sizes. >>



but you are paying for it as a PM mostly and the numismatic value is a almost insignificant part
of the purchase?!? how can you feel bad about that?

it is like buying a mercury dime for 1.50 and knowing the dime in the worst case is worth ~1.20-1.30
to any dealer in the USA.

hard to go wrong when PMs show no sign of dropping like a rock.

rmpsrpms

It is time to sell, not buy.

sinin1

just buying less new pieces

coolest

<< <i>I stopped buying buffalo nickels in the seventies when they started costing 10 cents each instead of 71/2 cents each.
That was a 50% increase in a year.
Everything goes up my friend. Even the cost of hobbies. >>



Particularly when you factor in the fact that, as you become a more experienced collector the quality, and rarity, of the coins you are looking for also continuously increasing (at least for me anyway). Also, coins that now sell for more than a million dollars were probably just a few dollars at one point.

Whitby

<< <i>It is time to sell, not buy. >>



Selling assumes a buyer. I think the nmajority here have said, yes, I am priced out.

The stuff I want, yup, too much for me. Luckily, I also collect Mint Stuff so unless the mint starts I should be OK.

Of course, UNLESS the Mint starts this......very open to debate I am sure....

fc

<< <i>It is time to sell, not buy. >>



sell what though? fancy numismatic coins that have 99% of their value based on that? errors come to mind.
or coins that are basically valuable due to their intrinsic value? gold or junk silver comes to mind.

time to sell wild toners? time to sell high end wheaties?

could you be more specific?

PreTurb

Prices for what I like (early half dollars) exceeded my comfort level about a year and a half ago - I'm now pursuing local exonumia for the time being.

dimples

I only start a series when it's at the bottom of the cycle and then sell towards the top. This way I'm taking advantage of the gains , yet still can enjoy collecting.

Prethen

<< <i>I only start a series when it's at the bottom of the cycle and then sell towards the top. This way I'm taking advantage of the gains , yet still can enjoy collecting. >>


I guess this is "good news" for 3CN as they're perpetually at the bottom of the cycle!

Michigan

I'm priced out on so many things I'm not even an active collector at all anymore. The stuff I can afford I'm not really interested in collecting
(modern US mint stuff).

DoubleEagle59

I personally feel that there are great buying opportunities now, due to the rapid increase in the price of gold.

I wish I had the extra cabbage right now, but I would be buying high grade ms63 to ms65 gold coins, where the selling price of these coins is only slightly higher than the current price of gold.

Also, due to the strict grading of PCGS, and the depressed prices of ms65 Morgans, I'd be buying as many of these as I could!!

Patches

I plan to buy less this year, I think a lot of coin prices are irrationally high. But only time will tell. I may look smart, I may look dumb.

moonshine

yes, backing off .... I have quit buying so much from the US Mint for one thing, as they have priced themselves too far out. That said, I do still buy some of the PM products only, along with a few other odds and ends. I know longer buy 'everything' they release.

I have also cut down on sending coins in for grading ... the economy you know, and I have pretty much quit working on my 'collections', books, etc.

Now, I mostly concentrate on selling things because I need to liquidate at least half of my collection.

I have changed my collecting habits to the better I think, and also to accomodate a life 'in the new world.'

Goldbully

I bought so much last year, that this year I can be much more price conscious.

rmpsrpms

Since we're in an unrecognized recession, once it's finally recognized prices on all collectibles will drop. There is a very narrow sell window now with metals rising and the stock market still high. So sell ANYTHING that has significant value above bullion. There are still buyers out there, folks who buy on the way up and fuel the bubble. Perhaps buyers could be best had at a 5-10% discount from current list prices, which will look brilliant in a few months. For Au bullion I expect a peak by end of Mar, then when the IMF dumps Au it will go back to a more reasonable range (maybe $500-600). So if you sell now, you will miss the peak, but it's hard to time the peak and tougher and tougher to find peak buyers. Ag is anyone's bet. I'm planning to sell Au by end of next week, Ag by end of 2 weeks. Everything else I'm selling as I can find buyers. Convert to cash, then buy near the bottom.

Doogy

i've pretty much quit buying US stuff (except for a couple DMPL Morgans as of late) due to what i believe is an impending 'correction' from an overheated market. All of my buying has been better world stuff (mostly British), as the market is hot and only getting hotter with no slowdown in sight (as new collectors are entering the fray every day).

vplite

My general impression is right now the spread between what you pay for a coin and what you can sell it for is unusually high. This is just based on my own experience, so people who are smarter at doing these transactions might be doing well.

With the price of coins (ignoring bullion items) being so high, I can only justify paying current prices as an "investment". However my gut tells me that coins are a poor investment, at least the ones I can afford i.e. high grade Morgans.

I invested heavily in bullion type coins through November 2007, so PM now represent a disproportionate share of my assets.

So I've stopped buying.

tradedollarnut

I have mixed feelings on this. No, I've not stopped buying completely - but yes, I've gotten very very picky and passed on coins I otherwise might have bought because the price was too high to justify or the quality wasn't all there.

But I do believe there's more room in this bull market and that I'm going to miss out on some short term appreciation. Demographics and economic conditions pretty much assure that this is going to be a huge bull cycle.

mr1931S

Also, due to the strict grading of PCGS, and the depressed prices of ms65 Morgans, I'd be buying as many of these as I could!!

There are "tons" of MS65 Morgans around begging for buyers.These coins are too common to be of any real interest to a smart "investor." Buy a few if you like 'em but don't bury yourself under a "ton" of these would be my advice.

Also, strict grading frequently goes to what is seen as deliberate undergrading.Smart "investors" eventually catch on to whats happening here as well.

Patches

<< <i>I have mixed feelings on this. No, I've not stopped buying completely - but yes, I've gotten very very picky and passed on coins I otherwise might have bought because the price was too high to justify or the quality wasn't all there.

But I do believe there's more room in this bull market and that I'm going to miss out on some short term appreciation. Demographics and economic conditions pretty much assure that this is going to be a huge bull cycle. >>



Careful...bears win, bulls win, pigs get slaughtered

jimmymac

IMHO, there will always be a market for high end, key and semi-key coins - the market's bubble may burst, but these coins will hold their value in the long run - if you can afford it, I would load up on these types of coins - pick out a couple in each series - buy and hold - there's always in times like these people who have the money and are looking for places to invest - will be interesting to see what happens in Baltimore and major coin shows over the next few months - to see what people are buying and what they are buying.

percyb

Yes I have to some extent. I haven't rushed to make purchases, except for items closer to spot such as the uncriculated ASEs. I turned some attention to the paper $$ market.

percyb

<< <i>Ziggy, I agree that a correction is inevitable, but if everyone else is like you and waiting for the prices to drop and then they buy, this will continue a trend of higher prices since the demand will continue to grow.

Stev32k, I've slowed down on the area of collecting that I was working on before the price hikes, and the coins I'm collecting now I enjoy just as much, and these inflated prices really haven't hurt this series. >>



You're right. It's tough to get the silver market to break 40 cents...let alone $2-3.00s. A breadk won't happen until everyone is certain prices are going up. Edited to add that I bot sum DBS today...finally.

NLKevin

Well, guess I've stopped buying my classic US commem's for the time being, but instead have turned to locally obtainable Dutch coinage. Coppers, silver stuivers, not affected by the current frenzy. Hey, where else can you buy a coin from the 1600's for 5 euros or so?

Have I stopped collecting? Not by a long shot, just shifted my direction.

Hey, anyone interested in an AU50 PCGS Fugio? :-) Just happen to have one laying around...

DoubleEagle59

Also, due to the strict grading of PCGS, and the depressed prices of ms65 Morgans, I'd be buying as many of these as I could!!

When I said this, I should have explained why I feel this way.

Simply put.....the ms65 you buy today from PCGS, is tomorrow's ms66.

tradedollarnut

<< <i>Also, due to the strict grading of PCGS, and the depressed prices of ms65 Morgans, I'd be buying as many of these as I could!!

When I said this, I should have explained why I feel this way.

Simply put.....the ms65 you buy today from PCGS, is tomorrow's ms66. >>



I doubt it. That game is over [hopefully].

Gemineye

I'm glad my collecting is limited to just a couple of Modern series of coins.Most is near up to date and awaiting delivery from the mint.Prices for extras are going up and surely(..Hi Shirley will be cutting into the coin expenses.It will be summertime in a few months and there will be a lot of planning and travel expenses such as GAS....$$$$$........!!!!

ziggy29

<< <i>Oddly enough, in general, the Sheet isn't really reflecting those higher prices. Why is that? Is it because dealers aren't willing to budge on the bid prices and are aiming low (price-wise)? I'm not referring to very rare or very high grade material. >>

I suspect it's because "the sheet" is for average-quality coins. They haven't gone nuclear like the PQ stuff with top notch eye appeal.

SeaEagleCoins

Have prices gotten too high?

For some folks...apparently so...

Yet, it seems that they have not gotten too high for other folks...

Especially when dealing with a commodity that is a non-necessity...such as coins...it there are people willing to pay the higher prices than the prices will go higher...

Will that force some to either drop out of the hobby or change what they collect? Absolutely

For me...I was beginning a Draped Bust Type Set but when i saw the prices for washed out, overcleaned (and in top tpg holders) Half-dimes, dimes and quarters...I said forget it...

As for my Buffalo Collection...strictly an AU set and a few coins are almost out of my range... certainly the 18/7-D and the 16 DblDie...

My other set is a 7070 that is just for fun and the coins are forever rotating as i find other 'cool' examples to put in there...

BECOKA

I have almost completely stopped buying. Most of what I collect ends up over graded by 2 points in NGC holders and sell accordingly. That and it happens that what I collect has a very I intrinsic value tied to the PM market.

Guess I should switch to pocket change where it actually worth more than face value and you can still get it at face value.

Type2

No the nickels I get from the bank are still a nickel, but I do see a lot of the Buffalos going up higher then it cost me last year glad I pick up a lot of them last year.

AuldFartte

The stuff I want started skyrocketing last fall, and I made a major slowdown in my purchases. The prices seem even higher now, so I doubt I'll buy much this year, and what I do buy will be at coin shows.

ziggy29

<< <i>Have prices gotten too high?

For some folks...apparently so...

Yet, it seems that they have not gotten too high for other folks.. >>

Well, as "new money" moves into the market as an alternative to stocks and real estate -- perhaps as an investment or a "momentum play" -- it pushes out the long-time middle class collector with a moderate budget and an eye for quality.

I suspect one group of people is moving in as another group is moving out -- and the motivations and depth of pockets is much different between the two.

tradedollarnut

It can be a filter down effect. I certainly can't compete with someone making $25M a day in the stock market, so my choice is to quit buying or concentrate on lower priced items. If I choose the latter, then the person I now outbid has the same choice to make. And so on and so on.

ziggy29

<< <i>It can be a filter down effect. I certainly can't compete with someone making $25M a day in the stock market, so my choice is to quit buying or concentrate on lower priced items. If I choose the latter, then the person I now outbid has the same choice to make. And so on and so on. >>

So you really do believe in "trickle-down" theory, eh?

rec78

No, I am just changing focus. I am updating my current sets since i haven't added neary anything since 1964. The darkside still has a lot of bargains. Bob

tradedollarnut

<< <i>

<< <i>It can be a filter down effect. I certainly can't compete with someone making $25M a day in the stock market, so my choice is to quit buying or concentrate on lower priced items. If I choose the latter, then the person I now outbid has the same choice to make. And so on and so on. >>

So you really do believe in "trickle-down" theory, eh? >>



lol! Apparently it's just as bad in collecting as it is in real life.

BECOKA

<< <i>It can be a filter down effect. I certainly can't compete with someone making $25M a day in the stock market, so my choice is to quit buying or concentrate on lower priced items. If I choose the latter, then the person I now outbid has the same choice to make. And so on and so on. >>



This has been happening ever since a premium was put on older coins above face value. i.e. to price out anyone else who might want it. I was priced out of coins I would love to collect years before I even started collecting and I had to make the choice to collect something of lesser value. And now I will have to do it again.

Joe26

The Wall Street guys or at least the Wall Street banks are in bad shape and I see more layoffs than big bonuses for them. We could see increased foreign demand since the US dollar is so weak but I think the better inestment is real estate which has really collapsed in several parts of the country.

TwoSides2aCoin

I'm poor enough to not care.

Arizonadesertrat

I am still collecting, but am MUCH more patient and insistent on quality. Many of the kinds of coins that I have discontinued collecting have been overgraded for the most part during the last few years, IMO (especially Capped Bust halves in MS61-63---these are 'market graded' but show wear typical of technically AU55-58 coins). There are still some good values left, but I don't think that generic MS65 Morgans represent value. Even if these 'become' MS66 in the future through gradeflation, people need to remember the the pop reports for generic Morgans are very discouraging.