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Gold: Time to Buy Buy Buy or Sell Sell Sell?
SilverEagles92
Posts: 6,787 ✭
Where does everyone see gold going in the next month? 6 months? 12 months? Should we be buying all we can afford right now, or should those of us that bought in low sell now and make a decent profit?
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depends on the world at war
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>I predict that the price of gold will go up. Or down.
Russ, NCNE >>
That's a pretty safe prediction. Thanks for that insight, Russ
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<< <i>I predict that the price of gold will go up. Or down.
Russ, NCNE >>
Russ, your crystal ball is woikin overtime...
True, the price may drop $50/ounce in the next few months, but if you don't time this correctly, you'll never get back in the market. Or if you do, it'll cost you more.
My advice...if you're looking to make money for only the next 6 months, I think there is a safer and less volotile group of investments to be in.
However, for the longer term (two years and more) I know of no better place to be than Gold and Silver. That's where I'm invested.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I don't have a crystal ball, but I remember what things were like the last time gold was at its current levels. The people who manipulate the markets have left the building long before the **** hits the fan, and the people who are on the gold threads we see here are usually left holding the bag.
Trust me on this.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Fighting the Fight for 11 Years with the big "C" - Never Ever Give Up!
Member PCGS Open Forum board 2002 - 2006 (closed end of 2006) Current board since 2006 Successful trades with many members, over the past two decades, never a bad deal.
Are you kidding??
No one hardly knows about gold.
We as coin collectors do because we are involved with gold.
Go ask your friends (who aren't coin collectors). Ask your family, parents, sons/daughters, co-workers. Ask them if they are invested in gold or silver. No way even 10% will say they are.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Nobody knows about gold yet, even though we read about it on these boards the whole time.
Do yourself a favor and check what percentage of the contributors to these boards even know about gold or contribute to this and other gold threads.....they see us as losers ( for now)
My Bellweather is the coffe shop , a few years ago that was where all the real estate geniuses hung out , years before that it was the dotcom experts sipping lattes. Still no sign of gold bugs...we have time....buy the pullbacks
The Gold and Oil are both denominated in Dollars. Think of it this way: as the dollar drops the price of gold has to go up --if you believe in "Intrinsic Value", The US Dollar is like an I-owe-U note : fiat currency. The dollar will go up relative to gold (in $/oz ) when interest rates rise. (Assuming gold has some intrisic value and discounting for the effect of the gold market, hedging etc).
That will happen inevitably as the Chinese pull out of the USD and put money into other percieved "stable currency" markets. But in the end its GOLD they all want.. So the laws of supply and demand prevail. And the psychology of buying into a rising market pulls in more and more people.
Camelot
Bear, in my short time here, yours is always the voice of wisdom
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>The answer to your question is....YES! >>
Yeah buy buy buy when its cheap and sell sell sell when its expensive
and what is expensive?
Camelot
Then when the "S_H_I_T_E hits the fan, I'll at least have a little 'nest egg' plus be used to scrimping on da' food budget
Pamp Suisse Bars are presently $831/oz bid, $846/oz ask with free shipping at California Numismatic Investments. Minimum order is $2,000. Larger bars are a tad less expensive. You may be able to find a better deal if you look around.
Poor Dow and the Nasdaq are going to get creamed next week...very close to a bottom and great year end rally in stocks
"A car is a tool that takes you from one place to another. Everything beyond that is a payment for other people's perception of you."
I'd say the entire finanical world is in a restless mode right now.
Nothing feels quite right. Gold may fall back from here, or go higher and then fall back. Then buy on the dip.
Contrary to what Elcontador said, I don't feel too abused sitting on $20 Libs in unc that I paid $400 for or the MS64 Saints that I bought at $500-650. The pullbacks didn't exactly hurt me. You could apply the same analysis to the coin market. 90% of the collectors and investors who are buying into higher grade material (esp Registry set material) are gonna get creamed when the market finally goes into the dumper. There will of course be exceptions to those who have done their homework and have picked out the most underrated and underappreciated coins possible. The market tanked the same way in 1980, in 1990, and in 2XXX...taking few prisoners. But you'll never read that in Coin World. And your friendly deal won't tell you that either.
roadrunner
Demand will go up in India/China/Asia and so will the price.
and see what happens
<< <i>Do yourself a favor. When you see as many people as there are now talking about gold (or anything else, for that matter), it's time to head for the exit.
I don't have a crystal ball, but I remember what things were like the last time gold was at its current levels. The people who manipulate the markets have left the building long before the **** hits the fan, and the people who are on the gold threads we see here are usually left holding the bag.
Trust me on this. >>
I agree, as far as bullion is concerned anyways, but I am still accumulating 63-64 Libs and some better date Indian $5's in 62-63.
When everyone is advocating buying gold down to the mechanic at Pep Boys and the waiter at your fav eatery, it's time to get out. Remember right before the stock market tech "correction" in 2001 when everyone and his brother was making stock picks, Enron to PSIX to WCOM and Lucent? Well, it's not that long ago, so we all should remember.
What will happen of course one way or the other is conjecture at this point, but I'm of the opinion that $100./oil and $850./ gold has gone beyond it's real worth, but of course the pendulum could swing really far before it does snap back, but both are in a bubble and when it bursts, look out.
John
I agree with jhdlfla on the mid-grade lib gold. I bought a dozen MS64 $5 Libs when they were $1350 (2-4 weeks ago) and they are now nicely up $200-$250 in that time. The same is true of some other Lib and Indian gold as well. It's one way to spread out the bullion risk and still get some numismatic value as well as leverage.
Of course when gold is $1500/oz I don't think that things like MS64 Lib gold will carry the premiums that they do today. Gold is headed higher long term until the economy imbalances are straightened out and and a firmer currency is back in place.
roadrunner
<< <i>When the FED/Treasury say they are for a strong dollar or that they are inflation fighters.....just say BS. The only source of domestic inflation since 1913 has been the FED. The same FED that is also claiming to be our inflation fighter. Any information coming out of them concerning inflation should be discounted right off the bat.
I agree with jhdlfla on the mid-grade lib gold. I bought a dozen MS64 $5 Libs when they were $1350 (2-4 weeks ago) and they are now nicely up $200-$250 in that time. The same is true of some other Lib and Indian gold as well. It's one way to spread out the bullion risk and still get some numismatic value as well as leverage.
Of course when gold is $1500/oz I don't think that things like MS64 Lib gold will carry the premiums that they do today. Gold is headed higher long term until the economy imbalances are straightened out and and a firmer currency is back in place.
roadrunner >>
I wholeheartedly agree with your comments about the FED... i am certainly no economist but we seem to be in uncharted territory now with regard to inflation and the wholesale FED bailout of the lending institutions, which is really what the reduction in rates is all about right now. Two times I remember in my past that we had problems on such a large scale were during the Nixon/ Ford era with the WIN buttons (whip inflation now), which was a total joke as we got caught with our pants down spending tons on the military during the cold war/ Vietnam, and got blindsided by the Arab oil embargo. Like wearing some stupid buttons and implementation of wage/ price controls could do anything. The other was during the mid 80's, when rates spiraled upwards after the S&L debacle and deregulation. I think our present problems dwarf both of these eras, this mess didn't happen overnight, we still remain dependant on foreign oil and have not made any real transition to energy independance, we still are embroiled in foreign conflicts that exacerbate the trade imbalance and Federal deficit. I have no idea what the solution is but if a simple guy like me can see this you have to wonder what these clowns in Washington see, beyond fund raisers, special interest groups and $1000./ plate dinners (burp....)
John
Rinse and repeat. Eventually you will win or lose. I am certain.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>If you think there is a good reason for confidence to be restored in the dollar and that it should rise in value then you should lighten up on gold. >>
Tom that is excellent advice, I think.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>
<< <i>If you think there is a good reason for confidence to be restored in the dollar and that it should rise in value then you should lighten up on gold. >>
Tom that is excellent advice, I think. >>
Thank you
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Buy or sell accordingly.
No more retirement funds going into those accounts. From now on, it's bullion as usual.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Do you see any hope for either of the two major U.S. political parties being able to improve the U.S. over the next ten years? >>
If you're speaking economically, there seems to be only one candidate in either of the two parties that has even a clue as to our economic woes. I won't use this forum to mention his name, but he did run once before as a Libertarian.
"A car is a tool that takes you from one place to another. Everything beyond that is a payment for other people's perception of you."
<< <i>
<< <i>Do you see any hope for either of the two major U.S. political parties being able to improve the U.S. over the next ten years? >>
If you're speaking economically, there seems to be only one candidate in either of the two parties that has even a clue as to our economic woes. I won't use this forum to mention his name, but he did run once before as a Libertarian. >>
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Enron to PSIX to WCOM and Lucent
Ahhh, the memories!
Definitely sell your gold when Mining Companies start putting their names on Football Stadiums. Would have save investors Billions earlier this century!
<< <i>I talked to a local dealer on Friday. He said that both buying and selling of gold was brisk. It looks like the jury is out on which way the market will go. >>
I would have to concur with the dealer. We have been buying and selling more in the last two months than we have bought in the last couple of years combined. But it is both ways, tons of people are coming and selling...but nearly as many people that are selling are also coming in to buy.
I think we will see $850 steady by Thanksgiving and $890 by christmas.
morris
** I would take a shack on the Rock over a castle in the sand !! **
Don't take life so seriously...nobody gets out alive.
ALL VALLEY COIN AND JEWELRY
28480 B OLD TOWN FRONT ST
TEMECULA, CA 92590
(951) 757-0334
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Eventually, international pressure will force the powers that be here to take serious action to adjust the relative value of the dollar to other int'l currencies. Int'l currencies trade in a close range to one another, otherwise "feathers get ruffled."
At some point, expect a serious rise in interest rates here in the U.S., the dollar will rise, and precious metals will get slammed. When this will happen is anyone's guess, but it will happen.
To the extent a particular coin has numismatic value, versus bullion value, I can't see it being affected a great deal by this correction.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
The US dollar goes up when Interest rates go up and vice versa. I believe that worldwide interest rates are rising and credit is tightening.
The Fed is hinting that we they're not going to cut rates again soon. So Gold may see a short term ceiling, unless" panic buying" sets in. In that case the sky is the limit.
Caveat...
I confess, I'm a believer in the intrisic value of gold., but I also believe in the Golden Rule: "He who has the gold makes the rules".
to 3 3/4 %. This would be a very Good time to refi on a
mortgage, to take cash out , switch out of a variable or
go to a lower rate fixed mortgage.This may last till the banks
are bailed out of their mortgage fiasco , That means mid 08.
Stock markets will be static to weak, coins will be static to weak.
2. Next the Fed will swing to increasing rates to support
the dollar and allow rates to again attract foreign money
into our bonds and T Bills. Higher interest rates will pressure
debt laden folks, will assist people dependent on interest payments
and only heaven knows what will happen to stocks and coins.
This will be a very finely tuned maneuver by the Fed. It it gets it wrong,
then we are all in hot water. No matter who wins the next election, look
for higher taxes on the upper income, a series of fixes on Soc Sec and Medi Care
and a fix on the Alt Income Tax. Rebuilding the army, National Guard and Army Reserve
and enlarging the active duty component will be difficult, extensive and very costly.
Instead of borrow and spend, we will have tax, borrow and spend.
Camelot
If you look at gold from 2001 to 2006 and 1976-1980, you will see that in a rising interest rate environment gold advanced sharply. To those that think higher interest rates will turn gold's advance in less than a few years, look at the last few decades. It took 4-5 years and interest rates over 10% by early 1980 to even dent gold's advance.
To the extent a particular coin has numismatic value, versus bullion value, I can't see it being affected a great deal by this correction.
Surprisingly, $1, 2-1/2, $5 gold coins that have little bullion value, corrected quite severly in May 2006 when gold fell from $730 to $575. Those generic issues fell 30% as well. Even post 1880 better dates got hammered as well. Many better $10 and $20 Libs lost premiums they have still not gotten back. An MS65 $10 Lib fell from $7700 to under $4000. They definitely have numismatic value in type sets, but fell just as much as bullion did. It might happen next round as well.
roadrunner
<< <i>At some point, expect a serious rise in interest rates here in the U.S., the dollar will rise, and precious metals will get slammed. When this will happen is anyone's guess, but it will happen.
If you look at gold from 2001 to 2006 and 1976-1980, you will see that in a rising interest rate environment gold advanced sharply. To those that think higher interest rates will turn gold's advance in less than a few years, look at the last few decades. It took 4-5 years and interest rates over 10% by early 1980 to even dent gold's advance.
To the extent a particular coin has numismatic value, versus bullion value, I can't see it being affected a great deal by this correction.
Surprisingly, $1, 2-1/2, $5 gold coins that have little bullion value, corrected quite severly in May 2006 when gold fell from $730 to $575. Those generic issues fell 30% as well. Even post 1880 better dates got hammered as well. Many better $10 and $20 Libs lost premiums they have still not gotten back. An MS65 $10 Lib fell from $7700 to under $4000. They definitely have numismatic value in type sets, but fell just as much as bullion did. It might happen next round as well.
roadrunner >>
Actually, that correction happened when a certain well-known telemarketer from Texas stopped pushing $2-1/2's and $20's in order to promote slabbed Buffalo gold instead. I guess he figured that the older types had been pushed as hard and as far as they could be.
TD