jeff spouse-a most humbling experience

nard1 · October 30, 2007 12:52AM

Let me confess how wrong I was regarding the investment upside of the Jeff spouse-particularly the proof. I have since sold the 4 proof and 4unc that I purchased with friends help for a total loss of about $250. What really bothers me is how very wrong my 45 years of collecting and vest pocket dealing experience was. I thought that this coin was a "no brainer" for quick flipping and for the long haul. Draped bust obverse beautifully done-how could it miss? My confidence in my ability to pick winners has been truly shaken.

Barndog · October 30, 2007 12:58AM

moderns can be tricky. The last no brainers I saw were the ASE/AGE anniversary sets. Knowing there would be a lengthy series of spousal coins, I didn't even consider for a moment getting involved in those. I don't delve into moderns unless there is a significant assurance (at least in my mind) that a profit of 50% can be had in a short period of time.

pendragon1998 · October 30, 2007 12:59AM

I made a quick and tidy profit on Jeff's Liberty. It's not the coin as much as it is the timing (at least in this situation).

fishcooker · October 30, 2007 1:09AM

Of course, you know this means Dolley will be a big winner....

OPA · October 30, 2007 1:26AM

<< Let me confess how wrong I was regarding the investment upside of the Jeff spouse-particularly the proof. I have since sold the 4 proof and 4unc that I purchased with friends help for a total loss of about $250. What really bothers me is how very wrong my 45 years of collecting and vest pocket dealing experience was. I thought that this coin was a "no brainer" for quick flipping and for the long haul. Draped bust obverse beautifully done-how could it miss? My confidence in my ability to pick winners has been truly shaken. >>

Unfortunately...I totally am in agreement with you. Like yourself, because of the classic design, I thought this would be a sure winner, but turned out to be not so just like the 2006 Old Mint Gold coin (another classic design copy) I, however, was fortunate to have 3 70's & did make a profit on those...the 2 69's that I had, after figuring in grading fees, ebay & paypal fees, lost on average $50 each...
I will still purchase Dollie, but eyeball her carefully before submitting her for grading...Any coins with minor ticks will be returned to the Mint for a refund.....

LALASD4 · October 30, 2007 1:37AM

Well, you can't win them all.

Sometimes you just have to take your losses and move on to the next trade.

CarlWohlforth · October 30, 2007 1:40AM

There were offers for raw Jeff spouses that allowed for a profit on a very quick flip. I suspect some of the people making those offers expected more of an upside like you did. It is likely they purchased more coins than you did. So it seems like you are in good company.

Casman · October 30, 2007 1:40AM

Last big no brainer was the GW covers. The difference is, the flipper/dealer flood eventually dried up, which allowed for those with multiple boxes to pull a few hundred off each box and those holding smaller quantities to pull 100%+ profits in a few months. With the Spouse series, the flipper/dealer flood never stopped.

dieabolical · October 30, 2007 1:53AM

I also confess to joining the herd, I bought a set to flip and missed the window, waiting for the promised catalyst that never comes.
I'm sure someone will be along shortly to say that Christmas, definitely, will cause a bump in prices.
Yeah, that's it. Oh, and high gold spot puts in a high floor.
D'oh!

UtahCoin · October 30, 2007 1:57AM

I too got caught a little. On the GW & AA, I bought the max 20, slabed them, got some 70 1st Strikes, and made a killing. On the Jeff's, I played by the rules and only got 1 each. I still have them, waiting for the price rise which is not coming. The Madison could be a sleeper and be worth something because the flippers may sit it out. Who knows.....

dac076 · October 30, 2007 1:58AM

You're not alone on that bandwagon. I thought it would be a winner based on the weeks of anticipation by many on this board, who are much more knowledgeable about the coin market than the average joe. It just shows how difficult it is to predict the market for modern issues.

jmski52 · October 30, 2007 1:59AM

I thought that this coin was a "no brainer" for quick flipping and for the long haul. Draped bust obverse beautifully done-how could it miss?

The Mint is cannibalizing its customer base, and we may be seeing the beginnings of a washout, a customer rebellion, a lack of funds, or just plain fatigue with the continual bombardment of new issues.

The Jeff Spouse is a beautiful and classic design. It is early in a long series. Intuition says that if any of the spouses is a keeper, this should be it. So much for intuition. How about counter-intuitive? It may be that the cross-over point has been reached and the mintages will show a slow spiral down from this point on. Or not.

notwilight · October 30, 2007 2:00AM

<< Let me confess how wrong I was regarding the investment upside of the Jeff spouse-particularly the proof. I have since sold the 4 proof and 4unc that I purchased with friends help for a total loss of about $250. What really bothers me is how very wrong my 45 years of collecting and vest pocket dealing experience was. I thought that this coin was a "no brainer" for quick flipping and for the long haul. Draped bust obverse beautifully done-how could it miss? My confidence in my ability to pick winners has been truly shaken. >>

I can't figure it out but there is something about the Jefferson dollars and spouses that makes them worth less than others. I can't sell MS66 Jefferson sets for 50% of the price of an adams or a washingtong right now. I keep hoping demand will pick up. --jerry

ScarsdaleCoin · October 30, 2007 2:02AM

I dont understand a loss, since you can ship them back to the mint for a full refund

guitarwes · October 30, 2007 2:06AM

It's probably been said before, but I believe the reason that these "flopped" in terms of flipping was because of the Mint's decision to decrease the number one could order. The distribution was more sparse and collectors got their's and didn't have to compete on the secondary market. More even supply distribution = not so much profit for flippers.

I too, am in the same boat.

wes

Type2 · October 30, 2007 2:07AM

The funny thing is in a year or ten we will all say I had 8 of them and sold @ a loss or sold for 100.00 over, some coins just take time some collectores have it some don't only time will tell. But a very nice coin I'am keeping all of mine.

wondercoin · October 30, 2007 2:07AM

I bought a ton of Jeff spouse coins from forum members at roughly 19% over mint issue price. The coins were certainly a "winner" to all of those flippers. Those who held out for higher levels may be holding out a long, long time to see those higher levels. But, the coin is very cool coin - I am not personally convinced it is heading straight down to melt from here.

Wondercoin

BECOKA · October 30, 2007 2:11AM

This particular coin may still have some value. Once the initial surge gets soaked up I believe there will be more demand for this than many others in the series. It's just not a quick flip.

hubird · October 30, 2007 2:13AM

Those of us who are waiting until 2010 to make a run with the liberties are taking a big gamble. I (we'll) be left holding a REAL BIG bag if those plans don't pan out.

AskRaq · October 30, 2007 2:14AM

I too decided to make my first ever Mint purchase with the Liberty Spouse coins...

I wanted to keep one for a short Liberty set (for my daughter) and give one to my 1st niece who is due at the end of November.

The problem? Didn't really have the extra money to tie up.... Soooooo, I convinced my sister to buy a set & I'd buy a set.... flip one set to offset the cost of keeping the second set! Great idea....

But it didn't happen... it took weeks to get them in hand, and the eBay prices wouldn't cover the seller fees.

I then took one set (proof & uncirc) to the coin show to see what the offers would be ~ $675 for both! Argh.....

hiijacker · October 30, 2007 2:15AM

<< Let me confess how wrong I was regarding the investment upside of the Jeff spouse-particularly the proof. I have since sold the 4 proof and 4unc that I purchased with friends help for a total loss of about $250. What really bothers me is how very wrong my 45 years of collecting and vest pocket dealing experience was. I thought that this coin was a "no brainer" for quick flipping and for the long haul. Draped bust obverse beautifully done-how could it miss? My confidence in my ability to pick winners has been truly shaken. >>

How did you manage to lose $250? The melt alone is close to $400 a coin.

BECOKA · October 30, 2007 2:17AM

<< 

<< Let me confess how wrong I was regarding the investment upside of the Jeff spouse-particularly the proof. I have since sold the 4 proof and 4unc that I purchased with friends help for a total loss of about $250. What really bothers me is how very wrong my 45 years of collecting and vest pocket dealing experience was. I thought that this coin was a "no brainer" for quick flipping and for the long haul. Draped bust obverse beautifully done-how could it miss? My confidence in my ability to pick winners has been truly shaken. >>

How did you manage to lose $250? The melt alone is close to $400 a coin. >>

I would bet ebay and paypal fees.

ttown · October 30, 2007 2:19AM

<< 

<< 

<< Let me confess how wrong I was regarding the investment upside of the Jeff spouse-particularly the proof. I have since sold the 4 proof and 4unc that I purchased with friends help for a total loss of about $250. What really bothers me is how very wrong my 45 years of collecting and vest pocket dealing experience was. I thought that this coin was a "no brainer" for quick flipping and for the long haul. Draped bust obverse beautifully done-how could it miss? My confidence in my ability to pick winners has been truly shaken. >>

How did you manage to lose $250? The melt alone is close to $400 a coin. >>

I would bet ebay and paypal fees. >>

Let's not forget the Grading and shipping both ways fee, and maybe the famous "First Stikes label" that never loses.

19Lyds · October 30, 2007 2:22AM

<< I then took one set (proof & uncirc) to the coin show to see what the offers would be ~ $675 for both! Argh..... >>

Never ever do that again Raq! Only accept list or accept nothing! Whoever bought those from you made your profit.

MHO!

Did you try the BST Board?

holeinone1972 · October 30, 2007 2:23AM

I am keeping all 3 of my sets unopened.

Worse case is I will build 3 liberty short sets, 1 for me and 1 for my son and daughter.

Truly beautiful.

AskRaq · October 30, 2007 2:29AM

<< 

<< I then took one set (proof & uncirc) to the coin show to see what the offers would be ~ $675 for both! Argh..... >>

Never ever do that again Raq! Only accept list or accept nothing! Whoever bought those from you made your profit.

MHO!

Did you try the BST Board? >>

Oh, I didn't sell them.... I was just actually shocked that even with all the original Mint packaging that the dealers were only offering (short) gold prices?? Not even close to Mint price... so I still have them for now. Not gonna take a nearly $200 loss that quick!!

mckaleta · October 30, 2007 2:32AM

i dont know if im thankful or upset that the mint limited my purchasing ability.

for the time being - im happy i was limited bc the damage is limited. but if it was a free for all, the prices would have been stronger.

mixed feelings on this.

jimmymac · October 30, 2007 2:45AM

<< Let me confess how wrong I was regarding the investment upside of the Jeff spouse-particularly the proof. I have since sold the 4 proof and 4unc that I purchased with friends help for a total loss of about $250. What really bothers me is how very wrong my 45 years of collecting and vest pocket dealing experience was. I thought that this coin was a "no brainer" for quick flipping and for the long haul. Draped bust obverse beautifully done-how could it miss? My confidence in my ability to pick winners has been truly shaken. >>

you only lose when you sell - these coins will increase in value over the years - besides they are nice to look at!!

Coinsponge · October 30, 2007 2:53AM

I think the trick of flipping is to catch the "great eye" (like Lord of the Rings) of the flipper hoards while it is sleeping. All eyes were on the Jeffs and so you get what you see. I think after awhile the "eye" will once again be asleep or be distracted on these coins and new opportunities will be found. The trick is to be content with a few duds along the way.

Bochiman · October 30, 2007 2:58AM

<< I bought a ton of Jeff spouse coins from forum members at roughly 19% over mint issue price. The coins were certainly a "winner" to all of those flippers. Those who held out for higher levels may be holding out a long, long time to see those higher levels. But, the coin is very cool coin - I am not personally convinced it is heading straight down to melt from here.

Wondercoin >>

But, Mitch, are you still buying?

wondercoin · October 30, 2007 3:14AM

Always buying - just PM me.

Wondercoin

IrishMike · October 30, 2007 3:19AM

A very simple thing happened many of the coins ended up in the hands of folks who wanted to own them for a short time and saw $'s signs. These buyers obviously out numbered those who bought because of collecting interests. Whether or not they become a good long term hold nobody can say with certainty. I would suggest however that they didn't attract the collectors of the original design.

Bochiman · October 30, 2007 3:25AM

<< A very simple thing happened many of the coins ended up in the hands of folks who wanted to own them for a short time and saw $'s signs. These buyers obviously out numbered those who bought because of collecting interests. Whether or not they become a good long term hold nobody can say with certainty. I would suggest however that they didn't attract the collectors of the original design. >>

You're forgetting one other thing.....there were people who actually wanted this one and, due to the 1 per person from the mint, they actually did get them.
Before, with 5 per type/design, more people grabbed them and those that wanted really got shut out. Also, people who wanted them learned, from the first round, that they couldn't wait until they got home from work to order them, so they ordered early.

agentjim007 · October 30, 2007 3:27AM

what ever happened to that guy that was bragging about getting 180 of them?

Bochiman · October 30, 2007 3:32AM

Maybe he got them all and lost enough money to go bankrupt

VicThrust · October 30, 2007 3:33AM

I acquired 9. Sold one right away at $580.00 raw. Sold another raw for $510.00 and graded the rest (7). Got 2 pf70 and 2 ms70 and 3 69s. Sold one pf70 for $700 and the ms70 for $580 and the ms69 for $490.00 and a pf69 for $510.00. Still have two to sell and will be into my MS70 and PF70 for about $200.00. I will collect the subset for myself. Short money for 2 70s.

seateddime · October 30, 2007 4:03AM

I just need gold to go higher to make out on this

57loaded · October 30, 2007 4:50AM

Maybe consider other economic factors and for chirssake nobody in the mainstream public even knows about the prez dollars, let alone this First Spouse series.

Mitch has a long-term lookout and the funds to do it. He'll make some dough.

He can't have mine, yet

But to add. I for sure thought this would be a no-brainer, too. It just shows you what the market and collector's really are for these. With the mint limiting the orders, they essentially killed any future sales of this series....IMHO.

I'll be like Jerry...getting one DM proof and send it in for FStrike, after eyeballing it....or I just may wait and get it off the 'Bay. I'm only collecting a FS proof 69 series. and keeping the 'liberty's" raw, cuz they are so dang awesome, especially in MS...broken record.... oh i'll get a jeff proof FS off of the 'bay.

When is DM going on sale?

GritsMan · October 30, 2007 4:53AM

While I can see why you flippers are disappointed, it seems most people are overlooking an important fact about Jeff--this is a really pretty coin! I love just taking it out and looking at it. That isn't true of the first two spouse issues, so that makes me still put this coin down as a solid winner. I'm guessing time will redeem any temporary disappointment in this.

ttown · October 30, 2007 4:56AM

Nothing that $860 gold won't cure.

ElKevvo · October 30, 2007 5:02AM

And quite also the Mint's new distribution system allowed folks who would have normally bid up the prices in the secondary market the opportunity to buy one at cost. Or allow more folks who were looking to flip have the opportunity to do so as they were able to get a couple of the coins and these folks flooded the secondary market driving down prices.

K

7over8 · October 30, 2007 5:04AM

the problem is that flippers expect to make the 100% return within weeks

that isnt normal

the Jeff Liberty is a fabulous long term hold and anyone who sells for a loss shouldnt have been in them in the first place

The Martha, Abigal and soon to be followed by Dolly are losers dues to little collector interest and poor designs

Swampboy · October 30, 2007 5:06AM

<< 

<< 

<< I then took one set (proof & uncirc) to the coin show to see what the offers would be ~ $675 for both! Argh..... >>

Never ever do that again Raq! Only accept list or accept nothing! Whoever bought those from you made your profit.

MHO!

Did you try the BST Board? >>

Oh, I didn't sell them.... I was just actually shocked that even with all the original Mint packaging that the dealers were only offering (short) gold prices?? Not even close to Mint price... so I still have them for now. Not gonna take a nearly $200 loss that quick!! >>

Wow!! That was like $100.00 below Friday's spot gold price.

That's an eye opener!

OPA · October 30, 2007 5:09AM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< I then took one set (proof & uncirc) to the coin show to see what the offers would be ~ $675 for both! Argh..... >>

Never ever do that again Raq! Only accept list or accept nothing! Whoever bought those from you made your profit.

MHO!

Did you try the BST Board? >>

Oh, I didn't sell them.... I was just actually shocked that even with all the original Mint packaging that the dealers were only offering (short) gold prices?? Not even close to Mint price... so I still have them for now. Not gonna take a nearly $200 loss that quick!! >>

Wow!! That was like $100.00 below Friday's spot gold price.

That's an eye opener! >>

"That's why we love & trust some dealers."

ModernCrapNut · October 30, 2007 5:53AM

I only ordered one proof and it came back from PCGS PR-70. If the price goes high enough, I'll sell it, if not, I'll just keep it around. With a melt of around $390 right now, there's not a lot of downside. Who knows, I may decide to buy the other 2 bust designs and have a short set. The one with women's suffrage as a theme doesn't make much sense for this series.

sfs2002usa · October 30, 2007 6:02AM

These coins are barely our the trapdoor for them to form appeal with the general public!

The awareness and the value must take its own sweet time to ripen. I was somewhat
surprised that the unc. was available for as long as it was on the mint website, since
I prefer frosty uncs. to polished proofs myself. But given time these will appreciate slowly but surely.

(I wasn't even aware of the collector value of the Jackie Robinson coinage when I bought
sets. Now they are quite valuable and I'm keeping these for a very long time to come!)

PrivateCoinCollector · October 30, 2007 6:20AM

I wound up with 4. 2 of each type. I was thinking I would sell one set, but when it cam down to it, I could not let them go. So at the very least I have 2 more ounces of Gold in the Safe. But in years to come, this will be the one "have to have" coin in the series.

meos1 · October 30, 2007 6:30AM

If you speculated and lost with money you could not afford to loose then you broke the first rule of speculation. If you are counting on riding a flipper wave then you broke one of the first rules of the stock market: "You can't time the market".

I am very happy the mint made it possible for COLLECTORS to own the coins. Sorry if your tail got caught in the trapdoor.

Dan

tincup · October 30, 2007 8:51AM

I am surprised at how many seem to have 'written off' this issue. It is only a bust if viewed in the perspective of the old 'flipping' game that everyone was fighting over for the previous issues. Of course, for this issue, that game did not work. So when viewed in that light, your're right... it is a bust.

But I believe the coin to be a winner. Prices have not risen for now, because everyone who wanted one has gotten one.

The general public have not even had a chance to really see this coin, or to even realize that it is there. (It is a difficult one to promote on Home Shopping Network, since the flippers do not have a sizable group at this time)

Just wait until the other 3 Liberty issues come out and sets are put together for this sub group. You will then see your price increases.

Bear · October 30, 2007 9:31AM

The Jeffs have a few pluses going for them.

1. The bull market in gold

2. The possibility of Pr-70s

3. The long range interest in the subset

4. Understanding that the Mint decision of one coin
of MS and PR per customer has inundated the immediate market.
This will cause an early downturn before any continued rise is possible.

With moderns, one can not just look at the quick flip,

there is also the reasonable holding period for profitable

resale.

bestday · October 30, 2007 9:53AM

<< Let me confess how wrong I was regarding the investment upside of the Jeff spouse-particularly the proof. I have since sold the 4 proof and 4unc that I purchased with friends help for a total loss of about $250. What really bothers me is how very wrong my 45 years of collecting and vest pocket dealing experience was. I thought that this coin was a "no brainer" for quick flipping and for the long haul. Draped bust obverse beautifully done-how could it miss? My confidence in my ability to pick winners has been truly shaken. >>

Ever since the 2006 20th Anniv sets from the US MINT , buyers are hunting for the next kill.........Too much Mint product = less opportunity

jeff spouse-a most humbling experience

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