What-If the Coin Market Lost 30% of it's Current Value by Monday....
OneCent
Posts: 3,561 ✭
Let's say the economy tanks big-time or some other event takes places that causes your collection to lose 30% of its value virtually overnite.
Would you be forced to sell your collection at a loss?
Would a lot of the "start-up" internet coin businesses go poof?
Would the E-Bay game dry-up?
Hopefully, the market continues to move swimmingly forward. I do wonder, though, if a correction to the current market isn't looming. Anyone else of this opinion or am I on an Island?
Would you be forced to sell your collection at a loss?
Would a lot of the "start-up" internet coin businesses go poof?
Would the E-Bay game dry-up?
Hopefully, the market continues to move swimmingly forward. I do wonder, though, if a correction to the current market isn't looming. Anyone else of this opinion or am I on an Island?
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111
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WS
<< <i>What-If the Coin Market Lost 30% of it's Current Value by Monday.... >>
You know something the rest of us don't ????
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4 "YOU SUCKS"
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For them, the value is in the history, aesthetics, and rarity.
And OK I am not exactly that person, I admit it. I like my collection being worth big bucks.
<< <i>I would buy 30% more coins - a 50% drop would be even better. >>
If "the market" went down 30% overnight, I'd wait for "it" (meaning the indicies) to stop going down, and then scoop up as much
A. pre-1808 rarities
B. Stocks with improving fundamentals, and
C. California Coastal real estate
as I could afford.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Don't care about the value of my collection really. Just like the coins.
<< <i>I would buy 30% more coins - a 50% drop would be even better. >>
Me too, but I only get 8 miles per gallon with my truck, and I suspect this drop in the market would cause an increase in fuel since we are running on that time bomb and not the gold standard anymore.
I'd buy gas , then use that gas to tone my Frankies, then have an estate sale !
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>Sounds like a buying opportunity to me
Don't care about the value of my collection really. Just like the coins. >>
Although I've put a lot of money into my collection, a drop in the market would only encourage me to buy more. This is a hobby for me, not an investment. If when I sell my collection, I have more money than I put in, great! If not, so be it.
"I am sorry you are unhappy with the care you recieved, is their anything I can do for you right now, how about some high speed lead therapy?" - A qoute from my wife's nursing forum
"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." – Thomas Jefferson
I am a collector not an investor.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Hell, I don't need to exercise.....I get enough just pushing my luck.
My collecting runs in 10 year cycles. When I was 10 I got wheaties from change. I then forgot about coins. When I was twenty I collected BU Washington Quarters and Franklins. Then I forgot about coins. When I was 30 I discovered Barbers. Then I forgot about coins. Then I rediscovered Barbers and here I sit, amazed that I didn't buy better Barbers 10 years ago. A 30% fall shoots prices back about 3 years and may actually be healthy. In another 10 years when I awake from slumber It'll be just fine.
as I could afford.
wait 3-4 more weeks Baley- prices are still dumping around here bigtime.
Seems all the subprimers are in a massive hurt and the borrowers are on the hook for those wacky ARM's they got themselves into.
What was a 200K home in 2000, went to 600K in 04/05- and now can't puch it in the 400K without the seller lookin at a foreclosure.
A sad day if the markets do hit a bottom- we may all be holding that precious metal disc very tight in our hands and needing it for the simple things- like gas or food.
I could buy 30% more coins
-David
<< <i>Can anyone think of a situation where the coin market would drop 30% overnight? Massive deflation would cause it to drop but it certainly wouldn't be overnight. >>
Stock market loses 10% of its' value in one day would probably do it.
Real Estate is devastated by sub-prime woes...
Oil skyrockets to $160 barrel due to geopolitical instability...
Deep economic recession that is caused by above.
Clearly, the above would be dramatic devestating events that I WOULD NOT want to happen and are unlikely to happen. It is easy to say that "yeah I'd scoop-up 30% more coins" but the reality is that many people would be more worried about daily expenses than buying "luxury" items such as coins.
I do not have a significant investment in coins so it really isn't here or there for me personally. However, I would not be happy if a week from now my collection was worth half of it's current value. Psychologically, it would have a huge impact.
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111
Would you be forced to sell your collection at a loss?
No. It's a hobby, not an investment portfolio purchased on margin.
Would a lot of the "start-up" internet coin businesses go poof?
Quite possibly, especially those that are poorly capitalized and run by people who lack down market experience.
Would the E-Bay game dry-up?
Maybe, maybe not, but it would affect me very little either way.
Id wait for the bottom to level out and pick up choice mid grade better date coins after the price settled. I would be in a strong cash position and take advantage of those who werent!
jim
Maybe
No
Hey, I'd be buying bigtime as it would only go back up and a 30% drop would equal
a TIME TO BUY! Sell it later if you want.......
bob
I guess a lot of speculators would quickly become collectors in hope of riding out the storm!
For me If coin values dropped 30% I would go into a buying frenzy and start picking up some of those out of my price range coins while the prices are low!
I am sick of rising prices, I would love them to lose 30% of their value overnight.
Tyler
<< <i>
<< <i>Sounds like a buying opportunity to me
Don't care about the value of my collection really. Just like the coins. >>
Although I've put a lot of money into my collection, a drop in the market would only encourage me to buy more. This is a hobby for me, not an investment. If when I sell my collection, I have more money than I put in, great! If not, so be it. >>
I honestly do not know how much money I put into my coins. I don't track the prices i paid for them and I don;t sell any so never really felt the need to keep a record.
What if the hypothetical question is, a 30% short term drop and a 50/50 chance that initial drop is the first step in a 60% or greater decline? How many brave souls then? That is a more accurate reality, as no one can call a bottom with reliability. Steep declines are often followed by more steep declines. Especially if it is a short hard punch. Dealers that have bank loans will have their loans called in. The first slide will almost certainly lead to a bloodbath of forced selling. As dealer after dealer folds up their tents and look for other work, a lot more inventory will find its way into an already saturated market. Bids will collapse as anyone with ready money will have all that soaked up in the first leg down. Smart money will hit any standing bids knowing that prices are surely moving lower in the short term and inventory can be replaced at half of the lowered bids when motivated and desperate sellers show up.
I really can't imagine any one day event where I would be a buyer after that kind of decline. I've been around markets long enough to know that there will be plenty of opportunities after the dust settles, that there is no need to run into a crumbling building to buy the furniture, or run under a falling safe to get the contents inside of it.
I find it difficult to imagine what kind of one day event would cause that kind of shock to the coin market. Over a couple of months, I could see lots of scenarios, but not one day. Not any where coins would be a smart thing to buy anyway.
What if we all found out that the Earth was truly the center of the Universe and that everything was drawn to it at a comic snail's pace and eventually it would collapse into itself a billion wednesdays from now?
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Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>I asked this question before and, so far, no one has answered me. What event could possibly cause the coin market to drop 30% overnight? >>
I don't know, but my hypothetical would cause a 100% desaturation of the coin market.
Self Indulgence | Holey Coins | Flickr Photostream
<< <i>I asked this question before and, so far, no one has answered me. What event could possibly cause the coin market to drop 30% overnight? >>
That is a very tough one. So many folks go by the greysheet that it takes time for prices to work their way through the system.
The only kind of events I can imagine are something along the lines of a major scandal with several major dealers and auction houses indicted as knowingly complicit in crimes involving something like counterfeiting. The news release is immediately followed with all slabbed coins at the major auction houses and all major dealer inventories seized as evidence, and all company and personal assets frozen, and a moratorium on the slabbing of any more coins.
Another event would be a formal declaration of war with weapons of mass destruction on several continents and millions of casualties in several major cities.
I doubt any rational person would want to buy coins in either case, despite the chatter on this thread. Again, a 30% one-day decline from a top, is likely the first shoe to drop and the first leg down of a much steeper decline.
The economic shocks mentioned, such as a big jump in oil prices, or a 10% decline in the stock market, would not cause much immediate damage to the coin market. The recent slide in the financial markets had very little impact on published coin prices, though probably a few isolated individuals may have sold coins to meet margin calls in stocks. A big jump in oil, might be accompanied by a big jump in precious metals and might actually mean higher coin prices.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>Some many seem so brave on paper.
What if the hypothetical question is, a 30% short term drop and a 50/50 chance that initial drop is the first step in a 60% or greater decline? How many brave souls then? That is a more accurate reality, as no one can call a bottom with reliability. Steep declines are often followed by more steep declines. Especially if it is a short hard punch. Dealers that have bank loans will have their loans called in. The first slide will almost certainly lead to a bloodbath of forced selling. As dealer after dealer folds up their tents and look for other work, a lot more inventory will find its way into an already saturated market. Bids will collapse as anyone with ready money will have all that soaked up in the first leg down. Smart money will hit any standing bids knowing that prices are surely moving lower in the short term and inventory can be replaced at half of the lowered bids when motivated and desperate sellers show up.
I really can't imagine any one day event where I would be a buyer after that kind of decline. I've been around markets long enough to know that there will be plenty of opportunities after the dust settles, that there is no need to run into a crumbling building to buy the furniture, or run under a falling safe to get the contents inside of it.
I find it difficult to imagine what kind of one day event would cause that kind of shock to the coin market. Over a couple of months, I could see lots of scenarios, but not one day. Not any where coins would be a smart thing to buy anyway. >>
Brother, you're looking at it the wrong way. First off, I don't think coins are a good investment, so I don't invest in them. It's the way I enjoy myself. If the market fell 30% then that would be great. Your question is like asking me if I would panic if hotel prices dropped 30% or if food went down 30%. Shoot....bring it on.
Will’sProoflikes
I could see that happening to sectors of the market but the the whole market. In fact, that happened once before in April of 1980.
As for what could cause the drop? Here are a few possibilities:
1. A national VAT of 10% imposed on all retail coin purchases. Investment oriented retail sales would dry up overnight, inspiring massive dumping.
2. A loss of trust in the leading TPGs. Even your PQ gems would circle the drain, right behind the low end trash.
3. A crash in the stock market, if that crash is inspired by a fear of a asset deflation. For example, horrible news in the real estate market could set this in motion.
And to address the OP question, I'd dump inventory ASAP, expecting things to get worse before they get better.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
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