WOW!!

Julian · December 20, 2006 8:19AM

I have spent parts of the last 2 days going over the Platinum portions of the Heritage FUN sale.

The coins offered there are absolutely incredible for the quantity of rarities and the many spectacular coins.

I could never imagine an auction with 3 1933 eagles. Truly mind boggling.

Sales like this can't happen often. If you see something that you want, go for it, as there might possibly be a bargain because of the breadth and value offered here.

As a dealer with a table, I am not expecting much in the way of retail sales from sophisticated collectors until the auction for their series happens. They should try the auction first.

WOW!!!

BECOKA · December 20, 2006 8:23AM

The other way to look at it is because of the breadth of coins available there will be more high paying bidders than ever and the auctions at the beginning of the year typically do very well.

My guess is the second 1933 coin will go for much more than the first as bidders realize what they missed out on.

That said I am glad I have my coins at Superior that has only an 1100 coin auction. Much more manageable and more cozy.

ziggy29 · December 20, 2006 8:25AM

<< I could never imagine an auction with 3 1933 eagles. Truly mind boggling.

Sales like this can't happen often. If you see something that you want, go for it, as there might possibly be a bargain because of the breadth and value offered here. >>

Very well could be. But you could also say that the current market could be nearing a top, even for the good stuff, because of all the quality rarities being pulled out for sale.

flaminio · December 20, 2006 8:25AM

<< II could never imagine an auction with 3 1933 eagles. Truly mind boggling. >>

Market top?

BECOKA · December 20, 2006 8:29AM

If the Liberty Nickel goes for 6 million at Stacks then those 3 1933 Double Eagles will bring in plenty of dough. There is lots of money out there, its just not many forum members have that kind of money to play with.

Coxe · December 20, 2006 8:34AM

I haven't gotten my catalogues yet. (Last year I didn't get them when I consigned oddly enough.) Saw a lot of neat stuff perusing the lots online though. I prefer the print catalogues myself for the first pass. Maybe they'll come tomorrow.........

PerryHall · December 20, 2006 8:39AM

Sounds like the heavy hitters are bailing out. Looks like a market top.

BECOKA · December 20, 2006 8:48AM

<< Sounds like the heavy hitters are bailing out. Looks like a market top. >>

I know one of the heavy hitters is doing a temporary bailout while starting a new business with the funds generated from this sale. Does not mean that it is a bad time for the coin market.

Jupiter · December 20, 2006 9:01AM

This huge sale will mark the blowoff top of the coin market and many will be buried in high priced coins when its all said and done. There is a reason there are so many rarities and top collections up on the block. It could be a looooong summer.

yellowjacket · December 20, 2006 11:11AM

The Washington Post's Steven Pearlstein said today that over $24 billion in bonuses are being handed out to Wall Street Chief Executives. More than $50 billion total if you include hedge funds and private equity firms. With this much cash flying around, wouldn't it be nice if some came into the coin market at the Fun show?

I agree with Julian L that there are some major pieces coming out on Platinum Night. The catalogue is just breath-taking!

Garrow

TwoSides2aCoin · December 20, 2006 11:15AM

<< The Washington Post's Steven Pearlstein said today that over $24 billion in bonuses are being handed out to Wall Street Chief Executives. More than $50 billion total if you include hedge funds and private equity firms. With this much cash flying around, wouldn't it be nice if some came into the coin market at the Fun show?

Garrow >>

Yeah if these big shots ever took a break from working so hard for their money and took up a real hobby like COINS, they might learn how to FLIP a buck and earn their keep.

messydesk · December 20, 2006 11:15AM

I picked up my catalogs at the PO today and was a little taken aback by the sheer heft of the box, then there was a note in it saying the rest of the main sale was still coming. The Platinum four-day-weekend catalogs are keepers, but that means I'll have to jettison another boxful of lesser tomes.

coltgus · December 20, 2006 11:46AM

Whether this is a blow off top in the coin market or only the beginning of a REAL bull market in coins is a very interesting question. It is obvious there are a large number of sellers and I wonder how the auctions will go. I think precious metals prices drive the coin market to a large extent so the real question is what will the prices of these be in the next few years ? The sellers probably believe precious metals are topping. My 2 cents worth is it is likely this decade will be like the 1970s and we ain't seen nuttin yet.

BigE · December 20, 2006 11:55AM

Its not the market top, it's simply time to sell them to the next tier. Most people at this level don't keep their wives this long---------------------------------BigE

ccex · December 20, 2006 11:58AM

<< If the Liberty Nickel goes for 6 million at Stacks then those 3 1933 Double Eagles will bring in plenty of dough. There is lots of money out there, its just not many forum members have that kind of money to play with. >>

Julian reported that there will be 3 1933 Eagles included. Where did you hear about 1933 Double Eaqles at FUN?

circulated · December 20, 2006 12:16PM

<<Whether this is a blow off top in the coin market or only the beginning of a REAL bull market in coins is a very interesting question.>>

It's a BIG question.

...<< I think precious metals prices drive the coin market to a large extent so the real question is what will the prices of these be in the next few years ? The sellers probably believe precious metals are topping. My 2 cents worth is it is likely this decade will be like the 1970s and we ain't seen nuttin yet. >>

IMO there are plenty of folks out there who can still taste the long bear of the rare coin market. Stuck with rare, extremely expensive coins for years. People take profits in any bull market - and this is expected. You are, IMO, 100% correct - precious metals drive the coin market. The bull market in precious metals - in commodities in general - is FAR from over. We are not even near the final phase of the bull market! And the biggest moves come in that last phase - where everyone is consumed with it.

However it's hard to guage "the rare coin market": there is no linear correlation that appiles to all coins in relation to the metals market - and those who are tuned into this will probably make the most prudent decisions.

This doesn't minimize the enormity of 2007 FUN! It's definitely monumental.

MrEureka · December 20, 2006 12:43PM

The rare coin and bullion markets were in clear decline from July through October. Many coins were consigned during this period by people that did not foresee a rebound in November/December. The point is that the size of the auction catalog is a trailing indicator. It tells us very little about what people are thinking today.

originalisbest · December 20, 2006 12:45PM

Goodness me. Good thing I don't own any of those "real" coins.

Jupiter · December 20, 2006 2:25PM

Just look at all the top tier collections and mega ultra rarities one after another in all these FUN sales and the sheer size of the sales. These are all coins owned by the sharpest dealers and collectors and they are all SELLING does that tell you anything?

Bull market ends here.

CaptHenway · December 20, 2006 2:29PM

Sure hope they have Red Bull Jello Shots at the auction viewing.....
LOL

roadrunner · December 20, 2006 3:17PM

Indicators that signal the end of a bull market tend to be a dropping gold price, high or peaking interest rates, and a recession in your face. I don't think will be seeing this all that soon either. During the last 2 bull markets in 1980 and 1990 the US was the world's economy. A recession here meant all collectibles went into the toilet.
With Asia picking up steam in commodities and tangibles, it may not matter much if the US is experiencing a recession. The price of gold can still rise based on world demand. The FED will insure that liquidity abounds to keep everyone feeding for as long as possible.

The 15-20 lbs of Heritage catalogs was impressive, esp the gold.

roadrunner

Jupiter · December 20, 2006 5:16PM

A lot of the high end smart money is CASHING OUT at FUN and its not because they think the market is going higher.

oreville · December 20, 2006 5:17PM

I know of a returning coin collector who wanted to buy a few coins to add to his coin collection that he had as a kid. He asked my advice on what to buy. I said how much in coins. He said $5 million now.

Another $5 million in 2007.

I advised him to go slow!

I suspect he will be tagging along with me next year.

RegistryCoin · December 20, 2006 5:30PM

<< A lot of the high end smart money is CASHING OUT at FUN and its not because they think the market is going higher. >>

This conclusion seems inarguable.

Coxe · December 20, 2006 7:23PM

FUN sales have been crossing very high quality coins. This is nothing new. Perhaps this year the volume is high but this is a strong market still and it has been a while since a lot of great coins hit the market. This is a great selling venue. I wouldn't read anything into it except opportunities. Bear in mind that some coins usually only become available at times like these and not often at bargain prices at the bottom of a dead market. (That is the time for the semikeys, often picking PQ ones for little or no premium too.)

mr1931S · December 20, 2006 7:51PM

"A lot of the high end smart money is CASHING OUT at FUN and its not because they think the market is going higher."

I tend to agree but I'd like to hear what QDB has to say about this.

PerryHall · December 20, 2006 9:23PM

I think some of the dealers are in denial.

TwoSides2aCoin · December 20, 2006 9:55PM

<< A lot of the high end smart money is CASHING OUT at FUN and its not because they think the market is going higher. >>

No ?

What then ?
I'm thinking this "profit taking" theory might work on paper. SELL SELL SELL
But if it doesn't go down, then what ?

Do ya think they are selling classics to buy moderns

I'm still floored at 20% on top of hammer ... geeeze.

RegistryCoin · December 20, 2006 10:31PM

<< When you can have your choice of things, then people are cashing out. Today, they are not. >>

If converting a boatload of top notch, very expensive classic coins to cash by means of auction isn't cashing out, then what the heck is it?

TwoSides2aCoin · December 20, 2006 10:45PM

<< 

<< When you can have your choice of things, then people are cashing out. Today, they are not. >>

When you can have your choice of realities, you can say anything you want. If converting a boatload of top notch, very expensive classic coins to cash by means of auction isn't cashing out, then what the heck is it?

>>

Say you buy a house... now you live in it a few years and the value goes up...
You decided you wanted to move into another house ... So you sold YOUR HOUSE and even earned equity.

Now, are you homeless ? I would say YES, you cashed out and you're homeless in that case. If these people never deal with coins again, YES... they cashed out. If they stay in the MARKET, they are only transitioning. But I have no choice of realities, my mortgage company will kick me out

Longacre · December 20, 2006 10:55PM

I viewed a lot of coins online. They look incredible. Unfortunately it looks like the forklift passed by Longacre's house.

Julian · December 20, 2006 11:51PM

Real collectors do not sell when the market is high. They continue to collect. They may not buy as many, but they do continue to add coins to their collections. When a collector is done collecting, he may then dispose of the coins, but some don't want to pay the capital gains taxes and keep them still. Jules Reiver, Harry Bass, and John Pittman are just a few names that come to mind. They collected thru all sorts of markets.

However, the Registry collector has a shorter focus. Once that he is finished with the defined set, he sells, and often start collecting another series.

Andy's point about many consigning during the fall certainly bears great credibility.

No one here, or anywhere, can predict the future.

IMHO, these auctions continue to represent buying opportunities for continuing collectors.

tradedollarnut · December 21, 2006 12:00AM

<< Just look at all the top tier collections and mega ultra rarities one after another in all these FUN sales and the sheer size of the sales. These are all coins owned by the sharpest dealers and collectors and they are all SELLING does that tell you anything?

Bull market ends here. >>

I hope you're right so I can buy more coins!

tradedollarnut · December 21, 2006 12:01AM

<< A lot of the high end smart money is CASHING OUT at FUN and its not because they think the market is going higher. >>

Who exactly? Tell us specifically which high end smart money is cashing out.

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS · December 21, 2006 12:18AM

Wow my ASS !! Where are all the "fresh Lincoln Cents"

Where are all the "fresh Gem Indian Cents"

Not to mention fresh "Barber Dimes"

Stewart

saintguru · December 21, 2006 12:29AM

<< A lot of the high end smart money is CASHING OUT at FUN and its not because they think the market is going higher. >>

You have NO idea what you are talking about.

I happen to know that one of the biggest collections to be sold in YEARS is in FUN, for every reason BUT a "market top". Until you know any of the sellers, you aren't qualified to make statements like you do. When the stock market goes up ALL THE SMARTEST are selling every day...and yet the market still goes up. The coin biz is a zero-sum game and every coin that is sold is bought by someone else who will ride it higher. This isn't a trading market and I would like someone to give me a good fundamental reason as to what will bring the coin market down in the long/short term. And if you say "Prices are too high" that's a relative statement that has no meaning.

saintguru · December 21, 2006 12:39AM

Re. STEWART's comments...look for great, ORIGINAL, correctly HIGH GRADED COINS selling lower and then I'll listen. There won't be any!

The more money that comes into the market, the more money that comes into the market! (you read that right) It's called "commitment" and it's just starting. You have millionaires and billionaires buying coins; as well as upper middle-income players. This is bigger than the Whitman folder Ebay players.

The REAL, NATURAL SURFACE, MEDIUM to HIGH END COIN MARKET is alive and well...and will outshine all the stuff that's been overgraded, AT'ed, dipped, stripped, puttied, peed-on and whatever other silly nonsense I read about here every day. Look for the coins that have stayed in the hands of true collectors, of whom there are many here, and ask them what their untouched, natural GEM coins are worth? Ask them if they want to sell. My guess is you will hear a resounding NO.

Daytraders don't count.

earlygoldnut · December 21, 2006 1:24AM

"A lot of the high end smart money is CASHING OUT at FUN and its not because they think the market is going higher"

This statement is dead wrong!!

There will be multiple buyers for every major rarity in every one of those sales. The market for anything remotely rare is very strong now.

elassoto · December 21, 2006 1:29AM

Hmm, look at the chart. Looks like a peak to me.

PCGS Index

saintguru · December 21, 2006 1:30AM

I think to fuly understand the dynamics of this market you have to know what's going on behind the purple curtain.

The emerging players are powerful and wealthy and have NO FEAR of buying in a bull market. Many new players can buy the top 50 sets in any Regisrty category. I'm not saying that they are on a buying tsunami, but I am saying that they want great coins and they will pay for them.

The coin market is very young in this modern era. Prior to the last 5 years or so this was a hobby. Now it's an alternative long-term investment. Was real estate in the California market high after the gold rushers paid 500% over the prices two years prior?

Was MSFT high 4 years after it went public and appreciated 1000%? It went up another 3000%.

TwoSides2aCoin · December 21, 2006 1:35AM

<< Hmm, look at the chart. Looks like a peak to me.

PCGS Index >>

Let me give you the TEN YEAR CHART, okay

?

Look at all the new releases from the mint and honestly ask yourself if a couple month chart predicts the future.

saintguru · December 21, 2006 1:38AM

Charts don't buy or sell coins.

RedneckHB · December 21, 2006 1:52AM

<< Hmm, look at the chart. Looks like a peak to me.

PCGS Index >>

It might have a long way to go.

More good times?

saintguru · December 21, 2006 2:11AM

<< 

<< Hmm, look at the chart. Looks like a peak to me.

PCGS Index >>

It might have a long way to go.

More good times? >>

Look at 8 different types of charts and THEN see what they say.

ONE CHART=ONE MISTAKE

There are so many techniques to look at...MACD, moving averages, momentum divergence, on balance volume, candlesticks, Fibonacci. No ONE chart should ever be relied on...especially as an "action" initiative. 30 years of technical analysis has taught me this.

tradedollarnut · December 21, 2006 2:14AM

I have recently been offered a premium over market for any or all of my Registry sets. I declined, but the buyer was definitely real.

Guess I'm not 'smart money'.

saintguru · December 21, 2006 2:18AM

<< I have recently been offered a premium over market for any or all of my Registry sets. I declined, but the buyer was definitely real.

Guess I'm not 'smart money'.

>>

BECOKA · December 21, 2006 2:19AM

<< I have recently been offered a premium over market for any or all of my Registry sets. I declined, but the buyer was definitely real.

Guess I'm not 'smart money'.

>>

Your sets are priceless, how can you say not smart money? Glad you declined.

saintguru · December 21, 2006 2:24AM

<< 

<< I have recently been offered a premium over market for any or all of my Registry sets. I declined, but the buyer was definitely real.

Guess I'm not 'smart money'.

>>

Your sets are priceless, how can you say not smart money? Glad you declined. >>

Because all the "smart money" is bailing at FUN, so says Jupiter. I think he's sniffing his ammonia cloud.

Oh...I'm not selling either, except to pay for BIGGER coins.

originalisbest · December 21, 2006 2:27AM

So, who will be declared the ultimate BSD? I breathlessly await the results.

BECOKA · December 21, 2006 2:31AM

BTW, I have a bunch of coins up not at Heritage but a competitor and many of the coins are already bid up to record highs for the grade.

Although the most expensive ones are still way under what I paid.

PonyExpress8 · December 21, 2006 2:56AM

The bull market has barely started. Those that have a 10-year investment horizon instead of a 10-week one know this and will do very well.

What is going on in FUN is prices have moved up nicely and enough over the past couple of years to finally bring some nice fresh material out to market. Collectors will collect throughout and long-term investors will continue to add to their holdings as well.

Saint Guru is very accurate in his comments. On the other hand all market tops are charactirized by an 100% optimism with no one saying anything about a market coming down. As long as their are folks out there like Jupiter, and not to belittle his belief, we haven't reached a top. So I am glad to see responses about this being a top. It's a guarantee we have a long way to go if one keeps a long term investment vision.

Glenn

WOW!!

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