Is it just me...or is the series you have an interest in appear to be coming down in price?

lkenefic · November 15, 2006 1:39AM

I've been following early coppers for some time now. It seems [at least to me] that while the prices for high grade specimens are still strong, the prices for lower grade material is getting softer. Has anyone else here experienced this for the series you're currently collecting? I'm hoping the trend will continue but I'm also not deluding myself either. The prices for problem-free mid-grade (VF-AU) Large Cents continues to hold while the prices realized for the "problem-children" seems to be going down. At least on "the bay", coins with decent details that have been cleaned or have some other detraction (corrosion for example) don't seem to be getting the traffic they once enjoyed...fewer bidders and the coins with strong reserves or higher starting prices don't get sold.

Is this a sign the the overall market is weakening? Is this impacting your buying habits? How has your series doing [pricewise] over the last couple of years...

...and what about Mary???

Bear · November 15, 2006 1:45AM

It is a symptom of the two tier market.

Top grade coins are strong and lower grade

coins are soft to lower. This gap has been

growing larger over the past two years.

saintguru · November 15, 2006 1:47AM

Things are a little soft in most areas...

I think this is the pre-FUN money hoarding phase. This year FUN is going to be HUGE, with quality stuff coming up. People are storing their ammo.

Cladiator · November 15, 2006 1:48AM

I've only noticed increases recently in my series of choice.

saintguru · November 15, 2006 1:49AM

<< I've only noticed increases recently in my series of choice. >>

wrong forum?

RYK · November 15, 2006 1:52AM

I have only seen increase in demand and price in my area. The demand is so great that when desirable coins are listed in dealer inventories, they are gone within a day, often within a few hours, and often receive multiple requests to purchase.

DennisH · November 15, 2006 1:54AM

My strong sense is that the prices of Morgan have weakened, especially for common and ho-hum dates... although there also seems to be no shortage of sellers who are in denial about this trend and have not lowered prices at all.

Coxe · November 15, 2006 2:01AM

Morgans have weakened some. I originally assessed that to be primarily due to a lack of fresh and decent material. However, I noticed at the TT auction on Monday (admttedly not always the showcase of the magnificent coins out there) that bargains were too easily had. I suspect a lot of the low to mid value coins, even the ones that are notbonafide widgets, are just in a post-election pre-holiday lull and FUN will kickstart the heart.

Russ · November 15, 2006 2:03AM

The coins that I'm interested in have done nothing but go up, WAY up.

Russ, NCNE

291fifth · November 15, 2006 2:09AM

My experience is with recently slabbed ANACS large cents (September, 2006.) Original, problem-free slabbed coins with eye-appeal are very solid and sell very easily. Coins with problems are discounted depending on just what type of problems they have. Coins that are damaged are being heavily discounted. Coins that are corroded are being discounted by varying percentages depending on just how bad the corrosion is. Coins that are cleaned, if they have retoned nicely, are being discounted, but not by as much as the damaged or corroded coins.

Coins that are being offered raw on eBay (in this case not large cents) are being discounted even if they are as described and have good eye-appeal. The "scammer factor" seems to be behind this discounting. Buyers are simply assuming there is something wrong with the raw coins even if there isn't. Even good photos don't seem to stop this discounting of raw coins.

These are my observations based on actual sales on eBay over the past couple of months.

AU58WALKERS · November 15, 2006 2:16AM

In spite of the decline on the sheets AND the red numbers in the pcgs price guide,
my coins of choice are "moon money" priced on dealer web sights.

BillJones · November 15, 2006 2:39AM

I'd love to run into a dealer who is selling clean, lower grade (Fine -VF) early large cents at reasonable prices. In Baltimore the prices were high from problem stuff and out of sight for anything nice. Usually when you are working with customer who is willing to use Coin Values magazine for price base, you can get a lot of material for him. That's not true for early copper. And I'm only trying to fill a date set, not the varieties.

As I learned years ago, collecting early copper is not fun any more because the prices to too high except for corroded porous junk.

lkenefic · November 15, 2006 3:43AM

291fifth... I was actually following a few of your auctions and I think I may have bid on a couple. You're absolutely right in that certification is seemingly bolstering sales. I'm not apt to bid as strongly on raw material from dealers I've not previously done business with even when the pics are decent. I've been burned a few times from images that attempt to hide the scratch or are imaged from an angle that is much more flattering. Especially when the caveat in the listing is: "I'm not a coin collector/grader so please defer to the picture" and then somehow don't know that the huge staple scratch running across Liberty's face is a detraction.

Bill... Are you refering to Liberty Cap and Draped Bust Cents (re: early large cents)? I've been priced out of this market for at least the last two years. Unless I want to go for AG3/G4 details and corroded...cleaned.. then recolored pieces [prices on these have fallen considerably as of late], I'm on the sidelines. There are a couple of the more common dates with lower rarity scores (R1/2) that I've been looking at but the prices are still fairly strong. Because of this, I've been concentrating on the Late date and mid-date series as of late. Even so, finding no-problems pieces with good eye appeal [in the VF-AU range] hasn't been simple. The early 1840's dates have been especially difficult to find problem-free. Finding well-worn or corroded coins that have spent a bit of time in the mud [or that someone tried to hack to death] is easy and these typically go for fractions of the bid/ask greysheet price. I've become accustomed to throwing that piece of paper out the window when it comes to nice no-problems pieces though.

All the Best...Leo

Myqqy · November 15, 2006 3:53AM

It's more bifurcation™ of the market....

Coxe · November 15, 2006 4:11AM

Not sure that I wold describe it as a bifurcation as much as a stratification of the market.

lkenefic · November 15, 2006 4:20AM

If there really is some splitting or stratification of the market into lower-tier [junk] and high-tier pieces that command strong money...what happens to all of the stuff in between? Or are we facing a situation where no-problems=high-tier even though the coin might only have F-VF details?

Kimchee · November 15, 2006 4:21AM

At this point I feel compelled to say that I smile every time I see the above white mouse.

Russ · November 15, 2006 4:32AM

<< At this point I feel compelled to say that I smile every time I see the above white mouse. >>

It's a rat. A long, skinny one.

Russ, NCNE

Coxe · November 15, 2006 4:34AM

The market can stratify into various levels; in fact, it always does. We might now see more or less participation (beta) in an upturn or downturn, depending on the stratum. One might place a 1913 Liberty nickel for sale now, for instance, if he or she believed the top level had little higher potential and might actually soften in the near future. From what I observe, some healthy sanity hit the market as the decent material has been drying up and want lists are going unsatisfied. That wanted material will hold and probably increase in bids while the common and the undeniable widgets suffer. Gold isn't so bad now, but a good downturn in gold will kill generic gold trading and the widgets pretty summarily.

Aegis3 · November 15, 2006 4:42AM

I wish the half cents I wanted were going down in price. Or at least remaining at the same price.

Gemineye · November 15, 2006 6:55AM

I find that there is some uneveness in the prices.The difference between the PCGS and NGC...are out of balance...A rise in one and a drop in the other.....

BillJones · November 15, 2006 7:57AM

<< 291fifth... I was actually following a few of your auctions and I think I may have bid on a couple. You're absolutely right in that certification is seemingly bolstering sales. I'm not apt to bid as strongly on raw material from dealers I've not previously done business with even when the pics are decent. I've been burned a few times from images that attempt to hide the scratch or are imaged from an angle that is much more flattering. Especially when the caveat in the listing is: "I'm not a coin collector/grader so please defer to the picture" and then somehow don't know that the huge staple scratch running across Liberty's face is a detraction.

Bill... Are you refering to Liberty Cap and Draped Bust Cents (re: early large cents)? I've been priced out of this market for at least the last two years. Unless I want to go for AG3/G4 details and corroded...cleaned.. then recolored pieces [prices on these have fallen considerably as of late], I'm on the sidelines. There are a couple of the more common dates with lower rarity scores (R1/2) that I've been looking at but the prices are still fairly strong. Because of this, I've been concentrating on the Late date and mid-date series as of late. Even so, finding no-problems pieces with good eye appeal [in the VF-AU range] hasn't been simple. The early 1840's dates have been especially difficult to find problem-free. Finding well-worn or corroded coins that have spent a bit of time in the mud [or that someone tried to hack to death] is easy and these typically go for fractions of the bid/ask greysheet price. I've become accustomed to throwing that piece of paper out the window when it comes to nice no-problems pieces though.

All the Best...Leo >>

Even the middle dates are a challenge now. It's a challenge to decent pieces are reasonable prices. And have you tried to find a nice looking 1857 large cent recently? There are very few decent ones on the market at any price.

I was able to put together the 1850 to 1856 group in EF-AU fairly quickly at the Palm Beach EAC convention, but the rest is a struggle. The only find of which I was pleased was to locate a decent looking 1823.

D · November 15, 2006 8:00AM

There's a few things in what I'm collecting that could drop by a grand or so and just barely be reasonably priced IMO.

-Daniel

MikeInFL · November 15, 2006 8:07AM

<< I've been following early coppers for some time now. It seems [at least to me] that while the prices for high grade specimens are still strong, the prices for lower grade material is getting softer. Has anyone else here experienced this for the series you're currently collecting? I'm hoping the trend will continue but I'm also not deluding myself either. The prices for problem-free mid-grade (VF-AU) Large Cents continues to hold while the prices realized for the "problem-children" seems to be going down. At least on "the bay", coins with decent details that have been cleaned or have some other detraction (corrosion for example) don't seem to be getting the traffic they once enjoyed...fewer bidders and the coins with strong reserves or higher starting prices don't get sold.

Is this a sign the the overall market is weakening? Is this impacting your buying habits? How has your series doing [pricewise] over the last couple of years...
>>

I see no downward pressure on early coppers, but I must admit I don't look at "problem children" pricing on eBay. My interest is similar to yours -- problem free VF-AU large cents -- and I see those prices holding steady or slowly marching upwards.

The optimistic side of me says that buyers are becoming educated and this is leading towards the lower prices on problem coins, but I really have no idea what is causing the softening you describe.

Personally, the prices changing has had no effect whatsoever on my buying habits -- I don't collect coins for their prices (future or past), but rather because I like them and they fit into my collecting goals....Mike

badger · November 15, 2006 8:10AM

I've been seeing a moderation of pricing in modern silver proofs. Top pops are still being sought however. Bidding frenzies are not as common.

Badger

Coxe · November 15, 2006 8:17AM

<< I wish the half cents I wanted were going down in price. Or at least remaining at the same price. >>

Sure hope they don't go down. I am consigning mine to FUN and they are great ones largely off the market for a decade.

originalisbest · November 15, 2006 8:21AM

Agree that decent large cents are tougher - at least I do have one of those nice-appearance 1857's.

lkenefic · November 15, 2006 11:22AM

True...I've only bid on one 1857 in the last two years. All the rest have had corrosion or completely left me in the [bidding] dust right from the start.

Leo

RichieURich · November 15, 2006 1:12PM

The 2 series I follow the most are Bust Quarters and Seated Quarters. Haven't seen any decreases there, only increases, especially the scarcer dates.

I sold a nice 1857 large cent at Baltimore, to another dealer. So it's probably out there in someone's case. I've noticed there are a lot of people working on date sets of large cents, so I try to have a decent selection in stock.

lkenefic · November 16, 2006 1:24AM

Speaking of mid-dates...here's an 1822 I've been watching. The auction has it as XF in the item description...I grade it more in the VF range. It's currently at high-end VF money and will likely go higher ...

Lakesammman · November 16, 2006 2:31AM

In my tiny esoteric niche, prices are way up. P61-64 material is selling for what I used to pay for P/MS 65 (small cent patterns 1856-1864).

Elcontador · November 16, 2006 2:59AM

I've given up looking at pre 1835 material, so I'm out of the loop there, but on other material that interests me, auction coins are now going unsold due to IMO ridiculously high reserves. Hopefully, if trends continue, I might actually be able to buy something.

Is it just me...or is the series you have an interest in appear to be coming down in price?

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