Why are proof and high grade Seated Dimes, Barbers, Seated coins so dirt cheap?

Longacre · May 9, 2005 11:50PM

I took a look at Legend's newps from the Central States show. Although I don't collect seated dimes, barbers, etc., I noticed that coins that are truly rare in high grades and with low mintages are priced pretty cheaply. For example, there were several coins with mintages in the 1000 or so range and the prices were very low. There were also some Eliasberg pedigree coins that were reasonably priced. Does anyone collect these coins and what do you think of the market for them?

rhedden · May 9, 2005 11:57PM

I think these coins are ridiculously undervalued. Yes, I do collect them. There is not much pressure on the prices from date collectors because few people pursue complete sets of proof Barber or Seated coinage.

Prethen · May 10, 2005 12:06AM

Do a search on early proofs in the subject and/or body in these forums, NGC, CoinPeople, and CoinTalk forums. You'll find a bunch of information; some from me and a bunch of information from a number of other folks. If you have access to the February Coin World issues, you may want to read the three part series on Early Proofs. A more basic version of that article (but including more info on the proofing process, cameos, toning, and grading) is on the newstand now in the current issue of Coin Values magazine (only on the newstand, though!).

In short, I will say, emphatically, as a whole, early proofs are extremely underappreciated. There's a sweet-spot in pricing in the PF64-65 area (PF64 for silver coins and PF65 for copper/nickel coins). I also avidly collect them. I have a good chunk of the 3CN and 3CS series in PF64-65, plus I'm going after an 1870 proof set (I'll need a lot of luck and a bit more money than luck to complete that one).

Buy the Encyclopedia of U.S. Proof coins by Breen on eBay or wherever you can find it (either the 1977 or 1989 editions are fine).

Go ahead and shoot with any specific questions you have.

Bruce

291fifth · May 10, 2005 12:15AM

They have been underappreciated for years and are likely to stay that way. The reason why has to do with the strong "investment" aspect of coins. The big money buyers are looking at coins as a hobby AND investment and these coins have a history of poor performance. You can deny the "investment" angle to coin popularity if you like but you do so at great risk when you start spending big money on coins.

BillJones · May 10, 2005 12:17AM

The market for these coins is relatively low because collectors can divided into two camps. There are those who collect business strike coins, and those who collect Proofs. The vast majority of the business strike people don’t want Proof coins in their sets unless they are forced collect them to fill the hole. A case in point is the 1895 Morgan dollar. If you want to fill that hole, you have to buy a Proof because there are no known business strikes. Some collectors have even gone so far as to say that their sets are complete without the 1895 because it was a Proof only issue and therefore not a real part of the set.

The second factor that keeps Proof coin prices down has to do with supply. Although a goodly number of the Proof coins have been lost, spent or badly damaged, a large portion of the mintages still exist. People paid a premium (over face value) for these coins when they were issued, and quite often these coins have been retained in collections.

One example of this is shown by my limited research of an 1869 Proof silver dollar that I recently purchased. Some years ago Dave Bowers wrote a two volume set of books that covered all of the silver dollars that had been issued from 1794 to the date of publication. In the 1869 silver dollar chapter Bowers estimated that 399+ of the 600 pieces that were reported issued that year still exist. That means that over two thirds of the mintage still exists. When you consider that the demand for these coins mostly comes from high end type collectors, who collect Proof type coins, you can see that the supply is small, but so is the market.

Finally a few dealers who have been buying and selling older (pre 1936) Proof coins for a long time tell me that they think the reported mintages are too low. They claim that they have seen too many 19th and early 20th century Proof coins to make them believe that the reported mintages are really accurate.

Longacre · May 10, 2005 12:19AM

Prethen:

How do you define the "sweet spot" in pricing for these coins? Do you calculate some sort of relationship between population levels and price, or do you tend to look at the price differential between coins in a certain grade versus what the next grade level might cost?

BillJones · May 10, 2005 12:26AM

I agree that MS-64 and 65 Proof coins do offer a sweet spot when the coins are what you might call "PQ." I've been pretty disappointed with some of the pieces I've seen in PR-66 holders lately. It's started to look like more "gradeflation" on the march. As for the pieces that are PR-67 and above, sorry, but the prices more most of them, are out of my realm.

Prethen · May 10, 2005 12:31AM

Bill, I have to respectfully disagree with those dealers that say the mintages are likely wrong. The printed mintages are very likely correct (or extremely close to correct). I would agree that there are plenty of copper and copper/nickel issues available in those types of series, but for a given date, they're extraordinary availability may be an illusion.

A number of resources claim very similar to exact mintages for most/all early proofs. I realize these estimates likely come from similar or even the same sources, but the Mint did try to keep accurate records for the most part and where the records were fuzzy or the Mint "admitted" to not having accurate records, those coin mintages have been noted as such. A correlation can be done with the population reports at NGC and PCGS. These reports are largely useless for any accuracy but they can tell you about relative survivability. In addition, these coins have been crossed to death to get the next higher grade, so for the most part, the populations are way over-stated across the board.

As far as seeing a bunch of one coin (same year) coming up. Yeah, I see that too on occassion. So what. But, I've also literally seen the same coin go up for sale sometimes on the same site, like Heritage, multiple times. It's coincidence.

On to the question of the number of surviving numbers that are in collectible condition. That's a whole different story. If you assume about 2/3 of all early proofs exist which is likely wrong and an over-estimate, you can count on at least 1/3 of those to be in truly poor shape for most collectors (circulated, damaged, hairlined to death, abrasively cleaned, holed, etc.). The remaining collectible coins in PF63+ condition (and not even all of those) are truly scarce.

I will agree, these coins are underappreciated due to lack of demand and somewhat to a lack of understanding of what these coins are. It's truly hilarious to see these puffed-up moderns in PF69-70 holders going for many hundreds of dollars when for the same price you can buy a PF64 Half Dime that's a true scarcity or even rarity.

Bruce

kranky · May 10, 2005 12:33AM

I agree with BillJones. Many collectors do not want proof coins if a business strike is available. You can argue that often get a higher-quality coin for the money if you get a proof coin, but many people don't care. Personally, I'd rather have a nicer coin for the money, regardless (and thus I have a few 19th century proof coins).

The business strike collectors argue that it's more desirable to have a MS coin because, as they were made for circulation, a high-quality piece is more "special" since they weren't generally saved in pristine condition as the proof coins were.

A 19th century proof coin with unobtrusive hairlines might not get a lofty slab grade, but they can be extremely attractive.

Prethen · May 10, 2005 12:34AM

The sweet-spot is the grade/price right before it takes a huge jump in price (usually in multiples) such as the difference between a Proof 64 Half Dime and Proof 65 Half Dime. I only collect Proof 64's (in Half Dimes and 3CS) because that's what I can afford. I'd rather have 3 nice looking Proof 64 Half Dimes than a single Proof 65 Half Dime that for all practical purposes looks no different than a 64.

<< <i>Prethen:

How do you define the "sweet spot" in pricing for these coins? Do you calculate some sort of relationship between population levels and price, or do you tend to look at the price differential between coins in a certain grade versus what the next grade level might cost? >>

TheRaven · May 10, 2005 2:58AM

I would love to get some Seated Liberty & Barber Proof Coins but they are alot of money.....

They might be cheap compared to a mint state version of that coin, but still expensive.....

ARCO · May 10, 2005 3:52AM

At least for the Barbers, you have relatively low proof mintage numbers, but at least 50% were saved. That is literally hundreds of proof coins in each date. You don't get too many date by date Barber proof collectors (ditto the Seated series). There are fewer collectors because they aren't free. Nice proofs still cost into the hundreds and even thousands of dollars.

If a collector of reduced means wants a nice proof set, they have to collect more modern series. There probably aren't 500 collectors of means who want a complete Barber or Seated dime proof set. Probably not even 50.

Tyler

michael · May 11, 2005 1:32PM

to find pre 1916 proof coins that have tremendous eye appeal combined with technical choice+ to superb gem proof grades with extraordinary exceptional qualities

with a combination of all or any of these qualities

strongly cameoed
blast white with deep watery mirrors and clear clean non hazy cloudy mirrors
killer monster color
better dates that could be sleeper underappreciated coins

something that makes you go wow!!!

these coins as per the above are in my opinion great value opportunity coins to own and put together a type set of pre 1916 proof coins and will always have for the most part demand and possibly even increased demand as the market matures

and if put together with a descerning eye and buying as an informed collector and having fun along the way and buying value i think you really cant go wrong

and when it is time to sell in general the collector will get strong demand for special scarce proof coinage

many proof pre 1915 coinage are not good coins just some out of many
pick the great special eye appeal with extraordinary qualities and buy for value and seek out items and collect and have fun along the way and learn your speciality and i think overall you will have a great set and again when it is time to sell you will have great demand for your coins

now only 6% of what is out there is pre 1915 proofs are what i call smart buys

i will give you specific examples of coins i have personally seen that i thought where great vlaues in demand coins

monster eye appeal thickly frosted gem proof ultra cameo 1871 three cent nickel

killer deeply frosted gem proof deep cameo blast white crisp clean clear non hazy watery mirrors 1910 barber quarter

killer monster toned rainbow superb gem proof 1883 three cent nickel

killer monster deep ice blue original mint tissue toned superb gem proof 1885 three cent nick

cameoed gem proof red and brown with wild original green blue coloration 1834 classic head half cent no spots!!!!!!

stellar gem proof blast headlight white stellar ultra cameo++ trade dollar 1881

the red monster superb gem red roman finish matte proof 1909

wild carnival red blue green yellow colored superb gem satin proof 1936 buff nick

extremely deeply mirrored strongly deep cameoed original hazy two tone choice proof 1862 quarter eagle

these coins and others similar to these are out there and many reasonably priced for what they are and are still obtainable

another INTERESTING THOUGHT ABOUT COINS THAT ARE AVAILABLE and extremely reasonably priced EXTREMELY BEAUTIFUL AND SCARCE AND ARE OUT THERE AND MUCH LESS EXPENSIVE TO COLLECT

WANNABE SO CALLED PROOFLIKE BUSINESS STRIKE ""PROOFS""

also you could add a wannabe set of totally strongly prooflike pre 1915 coins that at first glance appear to be fully proof but are only well struck extremely eye appealling strongly proof like coins

for example

medium toned killer colored 1859-0 seated dollar au-63 but with deeply prooflike surfaces and not one of the crappy white baggy low mintstate frosty crappy horde 1859-o dollars that came out of the treasury 1963-64 silver dollar run

killer monster toned strongly prooflike and monster cameoed due to extensive die polish to correct a clashed die on a superb gem mintstate seated legend obverse half dime

extremely deceptive au-62 strongly prooflike fully struck lightly cameoed two tone coloration 1883 three dollar gold piece

tradedollarnut · May 11, 2005 2:15PM

The Seated coins in high grade are mostly collected as type. Unless an example is spectacular in condition, it often carries no premium for date as the type collector can just turn to another coin. This holds the values down.

However, every once in a while, two date collectors collide on a certain coin. Then you can throw away the sheets as they really don't pertain to such a situation.

Coinosaurus · May 11, 2005 2:36PM

The mintage figures on these proofs may seem low, but the survivability rate is quite high. If there were 1000 minted, probably half of 'em are still around. Contrast that with some of the branch mint coins, for example the early CC dimes and quarters, which were minted into the thousands. The survivability on those is much lower (on the order of 1%) and the prices are correspondingly higher. You will, on occasion, read dealer copy which breathlessly touts the low mintage figures of seated proofs. I humbly suggest that they are not quite telling the whole story.

The other thing going on here is that there really aren't very many collectors of proof seated coinage by date. So, as TDN points out, it's more about type coin collectors, which vastly outnumber dedicated seated enthusiasts.

Portions of the seated market have exploded in recent years (especially condition consensus material of the more scarce dates, and the very rare dates in any grade), but this has been limited to coins which have always been hard to find in any market. It will take a lot more collectors coming into the market to push up the "widget" seated material. For now, there are more than enough proofs and common date uncs to satisfy everyone.

oreville · May 11, 2005 3:18PM

You all tried valiantly to answer the original question with some excellent analysis but in my opinion you all missed the essence of the question!!!!!!!!!!!

The question is WHY????

No one mentioned that the seated as well as the barber shared almost an exact design from 1837 through 1915/16 for the dime, quarter half dollar and for part of the period dollar denominated coins. So aside from the extreme length of the two series from 1837 to 1915/16, you also have the commonality of design!

How many collectors are willing to use up their coin budget in buying all 3 or 4 of the denominations, let alone an entire series? Not many.

This is the essence of the difference between collecting 19th century versus 20th century coins. The 20th century coins while now exceedingly long for the lincoln cent among others is that no other denomination shares the spotlight with the cent.

Yes, others have mentioned that supply is relatively low but the number of collectors and investors looking for them is even scarcer.

SanctionII · August 17, 2006 10:01AM

TTT.

Plowing through old threads and found this one. Thought it was interesting and deserved to surface again for review and updated comments on the topic based on today's reality (Also, I am thinking about picking up a proof Barber half or maybe more; see my recent thread which I am also sending to the top).

For all who posted previously to this thread, how about giving it a second try and telling us if, in your opinion, things have changed or stayed the same. Thanks.

roadrunner · August 17, 2006 10:25AM

The area is still quite underrated. Seated type in general still lags the registry set mania. But eventually it must turn. These coins have been accumulated for the past several years and the buyers have no interest in running up prices until they have every coin they need. I can tell you that there are very few decent coins available anymore, anywhere, at any price. The number of dipped out pieces of junk has also helped to depress prices. If you only considered the accurately graded and eye appealing original pieces the available coins decreases by about 80%. The conserved widgets on the market keep listed prices depressed. But the real deal can bring 50-100% over sheet. Example: a real gem MS65 no motto half.
Widgets bring $3500-$4200 (64's imo). Show me a beautiful, no rub, no problem solid 65 with appeal, and you have a $6-7K coin that has no relationship to the "sheet." Bust halves follow the same story. I couldn't help but chuckle a bit when one of the recent articles in Coin World Trends extolled the virtues of specific seated dates based on mintages. In reality, the mintages often have little bearing on the true survival rates. Old myths die hard.

Completing a gem set of anything seated is impossible - at least for now. Even an UNC set is impossible in the quarters. So for the big buck guys who want it all, seated quarters, dimes or halves is not a great place to start.

roadrunner

Whizzard · August 17, 2006 10:37AM

They are undervalued. But there is a good article in Coin World this week on recent price spikes in Seated Liberty Quarters (attributed to type collectors). Which by the way, is why I've bought those, but the capped bust half holes in my 7070 remain vacant.

Mark

MikeInFL · August 17, 2006 2:04PM

I love proof seated and barber coinage, and find them much more attractive than business strikes. Instead of mint state coins, I've decided to fill my type set with proofs (in grades 64 to 66) for these series because of their beauty. The mint really understood how to make proof coins during the period of the seated coinage (less so during the Barber coinage).

Others with far more insight and experience have talked about the market for them, but for proofs I see it as thin with lots of supply due to survival rate and the demand spread out across all dates relatively equally because most of the demand is from type collectors. This has kept prices down, and will likely continue to keep prices down.

The challenge with these coins is finding ones that haven't been overly hairlined or otherwise messed with and are still attractive. In grades less than 65, this is often a virtual impossibility, and in grades higher it is still the exception to the rule.

As Michael points out, the prooflike examples that are available in these series can be very attractive, and I have a few and would buy more...Mike

michael · August 17, 2006 2:05PM

killer eye appeal
high end

pre 1915 seated barber morgan trade

proof 64 65 66 type are still terribly undervalued and extremely hard++ to find

go after type or just killer value opportunity coins

Why are proof and high grade Seated Dimes, Barbers, Seated coins so dirt cheap?

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