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An example of a "rarity" that is way overpriced IMO
Barry
Posts: 10,100 ✭✭✭
1916 SLQs.
There are about 15 of them currently listed on Ebay (which includes some ebaylive auction house coins). An F12 trends for $9K. Is that ridiculous for a coin you can buy pretty much any day of the week?
There are about 15 of them currently listed on Ebay (which includes some ebaylive auction house coins). An F12 trends for $9K. Is that ridiculous for a coin you can buy pretty much any day of the week?
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<< <i>Supply AND demand. >>
I agree 100% with that statment. The seller is only asking a price he or she thinks she can get. If they can it get with properly graded coins more power to them.
<< <i>There are several 'rarities' that you can see at almost any coin shop/ coin show. 1932-D and S Washingtons, 1916-D dimes, etc. It kind of goes along the lines of 'which coin is the most overrated?' >>
In reality, you could get the same responses by asking the question differently:
"What are the key dates to some of the most collected coin series?"
You'll usually get responses that involve coins which are priced very highly relative to absolute supply.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Cool coins cost more than uncool coins, unfortunutely.
<< <i>The concept of "supply and demand" is overrated. I'd rather discuss the underrated forces of market manipulation and widespread ignorance. >>
But in some sense, aren't market manipulation and widespread ignorance factors that...influence demand?
I mean, a lot of casual collectors are "ignorant" of the fact that an 1832 half cent has a mintage of something like 50,000 and can be had for one-tenth the price of an '09-S VDB in EF despite having only one-tenth the mintage AND having a much lower survival rate. People *think* the '09-S VDB is rare, and they bid it up as if it were. Meanwhile, the 1832 half cent is still extremely affordable, and no one seems to know it's orders of magnitude scarcer than the '09-S VDB.
Isn't it true that in some sense, there's a lot of ignorance among those who think the '09-S VDB is a prized rarity? And that this has an effect on demand?
Of course they are. That's why it's idiotic to allow "the market" to influence your own decisions as a collector.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>Andy - please elaborate on how the market is manipulated. >>
And please hurry, I need to figure out what to bid on in Denver.
Through any combination of the following:
Cornering the supply.
Making offers to buy or sell in meaningless quantities, with the expectation that those offers will affect the price guides upon which many buy/sell decisions are based.
Touting a coin's potential, usually to a captive audience.
In general, lying to anyone who will listen.
Of course that's the "short list".
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I'd rather you discuss that, too. What factors make certain coins good candidates for market manipulation; and how can demand be created once there's some control over the supply? No dealer has ever approached me to push a certain coin or even a certain type. I was even ignorant of the recent G$3 promotion that the whole world seemed to know about.
Almost anything can be promoted. All you need is enough cash to absorb the floating supply.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>Almost anything can be promoted. All you need is enough cash to absorb the floating supply. >>
Thus lending credence to the old adage, "it takes money to make money."
BTW, I won't do this because I have no incentive.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>An excellent example of market manipulation is the 1844 Seated Dime. Someone in CA has about 600 of them. It's a way overpriced issue (and the lowest grade coin in my Seated Dime set for that reason.) >>
Good example. The "Little Orphan Annie" hype together with the hoarding has severely overrated this date. The 1846 is much scarcer and yet it's not generally more costly.
Same thing re MS 66 Liberty Nickels. When they were $800 coins, you couldn't find one out there to save your life. When a 30 of them were released at a Superior Auction, the price doubled. Now they're also readily available.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
U.S. Nickels Complete Set with Major Varieties, Circulation Strikes
U.S. Dimes Complete Set with Major Varieties, Circulation Strikes
<< <i>1901-S Barber quarter.
Below VG, I agree. These things are seemingly everywhere in AG-G. But in Fine or above, it is truly a very scarce coin.
Wouldn't you need to actually place bids instead of merely advertise to make the price guides move; and, wouldn't the actual bids create the obligation to purchase? I thought that these kinds of attempts at manipulation are much more difficult to pull off than they were a few years ago because of electronic trading.
<< <i>Six years ago or so, you couldn't find Bust $s. Then almost overnight, the price doubled, and there have been loads of them available ever since........ >>
Even the 1794 dollar. Every time you turn around, another one is up at auction.
1796 Quarters
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<< <i>The 1856 flying eagle cent---one of the most common patterns. >>
This one is also "overrated" due to mintage estimates that are almost certainly too low. Historically it was listed with a mintage of "estimated 1,000." I'd wager the total number of 1856 Fleagles struck -- both business strike and Proof -- are at least twice that amount.
<< <i>please elaborate on how the market is manipulated.
Through any combination of the following:
Cornering the supply.
Making offers to buy or sell in meaningless quantities, with the expectation that those offers will affect the price guides upon which many buy/sell decisions are based.
Touting a coin's potential, usually to a captive audience. >>
AU58 Bust Halves?
There are several Capped Bust half dollars that are "rare" including some overdates, yet in my opinion, they are all overpriced. Why? Because they do not appeal to me. Perhaps you think I SHOULD appreciate the TRUE rarity of these coins and cash in my mundane 20th century key dates for a "legitimate" rarity. But guess what? I don't want to. I suppose I will remain blissfully ignorant.
Now we move on to the "overpriced" 16-d dime, 1877 Indian cent, 1916 slq, 1909-s vdb etc. These are some of the coins that make the self-proclaimed experts bang their heads against the wall, remaining disgusted and perplexed that such a large number of unsophisticated coin collecting philistines really do exist. After all, these dates are always available in most grades for a price. However, there are many factors that result in the huge price increases for these key dates. Does anyone really need an explanation as to why the 1916 Standing Liberty quarter is such a unique coin with a high price tag? Its so-called availability is only part of the equation.
How about the 1907 high relief St Gaudens? They are so abundant, it could be touted as a great stocking stuffer. Is it overpriced when compared to a particular Liberty Seated dime? Despite the fact that there are far greater numbers of the St Gaudens twenties than several Liberty Seated coins, its value is not diminished. Hype? Does this coin really need any kind of promotion to catch our attention? Come on, be serious!
Tyler
<< <i>1911-D quarter eagle beats all! >>
RYK, you beat me to it. Check out Heritage, there always seems to be about 20 of these guys floating around.
<< <i>
<< <i>1901-S Barber quarter.
Below VG, I agree. These things are seemingly everywhere in AG-G. But in Fine or above, it is truly a very scarce coin. >>
Ditto. I see people paying thousands for these things, and it's so worn there is nothing left. They have got to be nuts.
If I can't afford anything but a piece of crap, I can live without out it. That's why I don't have a 1796-7 half dollar in my collection. I'd never pay $9K for one in AG with hole in it, and that was the best I could afford years ago.
So, my question to some of you is, at what price will you shell out the bucks for these coins? In your minds, what is the right price?
Good move! you bought the 16 SLQ for a great price. Now many will follow your lead, absorbing the remaining coins at the latest "fair price." When the value soars to news levels, will you still be whining about this "overpriced" coin?
The answer is, no, you will not.
Have you checked out the price of 1932-D and S quarter lately? The air is coming out of the balloon for those two key dates.
<< <i>The concept of "supply and demand" is overrated. I'd rather discuss the underrated forces of market manipulation and widespread ignorance. >>
The 1909-S VDB is a good example of manipulation by its listing in Whitman and other folders. Had this variety never been listed in albums, folders, and price lists, demand would have stayed low because one could have a "complete" Lincoln set without it. Once it was hyped as a necessary part of the set, demand shot up since it is one of the scarcest distinct varieties in the set.
The 1876 II/II trade dollar has received more attention in recent years, yet it is still a bargain in relation to its true rarity. Should the Red Book, PCGS Set Registry, or some other prominent list include it as a necessary part of a "complete" trade dollar collection, prices will skyrocket.
Few people collect date runs of trade dollars or half cents, so scarce dates of these coins don't demand nearly the premium of their counterparts in Lincoln cent, Mercury dime, and other popular collections.
Obscurum per obscurius
The 32-D and S quarters seem to be more popular as a result of the State quarter program and an influx of new collectors. You have probably given me the best example of what might be considered an overpriced "rarity", especially in mint state grades. However, neither you nor I can clearly see what will happen if or when the price comes down for these two issues. I consider the Washington quarter a modern issue, similar to the Franklin half and Jefferson Nickel. Almost every date was hoarded, resulting in an unusually large supply in high grades.
It will be interesting to see what twists and turns the 32-D and 32-S quarters will take in the next few years.
<< <i>
Few people collect date runs of trade dollars or half cents, so scarce dates of these coins don't demand nearly the premium of their counterparts in Lincoln cent, Mercury dime, and other popular collections. >>
And that is the bottom line.
You mention the 09-s VDB cent album inclusion as an example of market manipulation, but even without this factor, it would still be an extremely popular first year oddity.
Using you argument, one can say the need to fill both date AND MINTMARK holes is forced upon us by album manufacturers and coin promoters. After all, I might say that the date of a coin is of paramount importance, not the location of production.
<< <i>Using you argument, one can say the need to fill both date AND MINTMARK holes is forced upon us by album manufacturers and coin promoters. After all, I might say that the date of a coin is of paramount importance, not the location of production. >>
Indeed, for the first century of U.S. numismatics, this was the case -- mintmark collecting was not common and widespread as it was today.
That largely began to change in the late 1800s when a few people started slowly paying more attention to mint marks. And once Augustus Heaton wrote Treatise on Coinage of the United States Branch Mints in 1893, people started paying a lot more attention. I guess in that sense Heaton was a "coin promoter?"
<< <i>So let's all wait for the the 11-D quarter eagle and 16 SLQ to come down to earth. Since they are always available in auctions, we should wait for them to take a justified nose-dive in price, right?
So, my question to some of you is, at what price will you shell out the bucks for these coins? In your minds, what is the right price?
Good move! you bought the 16 SLQ for a great price. Now many will follow your lead, absorbing the remaining coins at the latest "fair price." When the value soars to news levels, will you still be whining about this "overpriced" coin?
The answer is, no, you will not. >>
I don't assign fair values to coins b/c I collect for fun. However, there is such a thing as relative value. If I can buy an original coin in the series I collect for 1911-D money, guess which coin I will purchase?
I take a slightly different stance on the 1909-SVDB however. This coin is the cornerstone for the most collected series in coins-The Lincoln cent. Every lincoln cent collector wants this coin. Everyone has heard of it-even non-collectors -who know vertually nothing else about coins know about this coin. A guy from India who could barely speak English came to work were i work and he heard me talking to another co-worker about coins. And he says to me--"O yes -1909-SvDB penny.I have one." I was totally stunned. Here is a guy who is in this country just a few months and he has a 1909-SVDB cent.!!?? These may be overpriced but as long as they are within a reasonable purchase range for the average collector they will hold their value. JMHO. Bob
<< <i>
<< <i>
Few people collect date runs of trade dollars or half cents, so scarce dates of these coins don't demand nearly the premium of their counterparts in Lincoln cent, Mercury dime, and other popular collections. >>
And that is the bottom line.
You mention the 09-s VDB cent album inclusion as an example of market manipulation, but even without this factor, it would still be an extremely popular first year oddity.
Using you argument, one can say the need to fill both date AND MINTMARK holes is forced upon us by album manufacturers and coin promoters. After all, I might say that the date of a coin is of paramount importance, not the location of production. >>
Ziggy already took care of the mintmark issue. In another example, if the 1960 small date and large date varieties weren't noted in price guides, there would be less demand for them. The dates and mintmarks are much easier to distinguish than varieties thereof. The more varieties are highlighted and promoted, the greater the demand will be. Just look at VAMS, as another example.
Obscurum per obscurius
I've also noticed that these collectors are often 19th century coin specialists who feel the need to educate us on true rarity, sleepers, etc.
The fact that certain Bust halves have supposedly received the attention they deserve, does not mean that their value will be sustained or currently justified. In addition, you cannot compare a famous twentieth Century low mintage date to a pre-1836 small date curl 2 large O single leaf x edge overdate. I can also argue that these Bust varieties are gaining popularity as a fleeting trend with a constant need to invent new and exciting distinctions. In sum, they can be considered "overpriced."