Ignore (unless you're a Kennedy proof collector) 2007 pops

DHeath · September 18, 2004 7:35AM

Proof Kennedy halves in 2010.

Just for fun, I thought I'd codify my thoughts regarding the future of this series, and gather the thoughts of others inclined to comment. This will be a fun Lazurus thread in a few years. For my purposes, I've chosen to discuss high grade Dcam/Ucams, as they are likely the collector coin of choice for those that follow the series. Although I appreciate PR70 coins, I'll exclude them from my thoughts, as their importance is limited to a very small subset of the collector base. I'll also limit my discussion to the top ten in terms of price, as most all other coins in the series are readily available for little more than the price of the holder, with the exception of the few later silver proofs. These are MY thoughts only, and perhaps I'll be proven full of it by history. Please don't mistake this post for investment advice.

Based on current pricing, the top 10 coins in their highest known grade below 70 are as follows (pops from PCGS Pop report, values from Heritage, Teletrade, Ebay, and personal experience):

10- 81T2 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 522 pieces $125
9 - 1969 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 370 pieces $200
8 - 1968 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 190 pieces $250
7 - 1970 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 163 pieces $450
6 - 1964 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 61 pieces $1,500
5 - 1971 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 44 pieces $2,100
4 - 1967 PR-68 Dcam/Ucam 6 pieces $6,500
3 - 64AH PR-68 Dcam/Ucam 8 pieces $6,800
2 - 1965 PR-67 Dcam/Ucam 8 pieces $7,500
1 - 1966 PR-68 Dcam/Ucam 4 pieces $11,500

Total - $36,425

Now for the fun part, a little prognostication. What will this list look like in 2010? Here's my estimate, based on submitters efforts, the quality of the sets I see, and the size of the collector pool.

10- 81T2 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 1200 pieces $ 75
9 - 1969 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 800 pieces $ 100
8 - 1968 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 400 pieces $ 175
7 - 1970 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 300 pieces $ 250
6 - 1964 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 100 pieces $2,500
5 - 1971 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 150 pieces $ 500
4 - 1967 PR-68 Dcam/Ucam 25 pieces $5,000
3 - 64AH PR-68 Dcam/Ucam 20 pieces $9,500
2 - 1965 PR-67 Dcam/Ucam 15 pieces $12,500
1 - 1966 PR-68 Dcam/Ucam 10 pieces $16,000

Total - $46,600

Now should anyone holder a 1965 in MS-68 Dcam.....well, that would be an expensive coin. I'd imagine 1 or 2 exist, but who knows whether they'll ever be known to PCGS or whether they'll ruin in someone's closet. I'd bet someone will make one.

MadMarty · September 18, 2004 7:38AM

I better get to work!

LucyBop · September 18, 2004 7:41AM

Bunch of hairyhead coins!

kieferscoins · September 18, 2004 7:42AM

I'm going to make a 1966 PR-68DCAM.

It will be neat to TTT this thread then and see what they are worth and how close you are.

Cameron Kiefer

Russ · September 18, 2004 7:58AM

Interesting analysis. I think, however, that you're being a touch optimistic in the population growth for the 1965 and 1966 SMS coins, as well as the Accented Hair - assuming, of course, that the standard for DCAM for these coins remains as tough as it is now.

Also, by the "snapshot" definition some of your current values are a bit on the low side. The market is quite a bit hotter now than the period when much of the pricing history is available.

Pretty cool, and it will be fun to revisit in a few years.

Russ, NCNE

DHeath · September 18, 2004 8:11AM

Russ, you're right about the values. Some of these coins haven't changed hands in over a year, so I took concrete documented examples, but like you, I believe the values are conservative. The 65-66 population estimates are just a hunch on my part that these sets were not examined as thoroughly as the 64 sets, but that they will be scrutinized more now that set builders/bounty hunters are doing the searching. My probably overly-optimistic take on the AH's pops is based on possible crossovers and unattributed coins in all holders. It is a guess, but I think the additional noteriety that causes the variety to be sought out may drive the price well beyond my estimate. I can't wait to see.

cladking · September 18, 2004 8:52AM

Your guess that numbers available will about double on these issues over the next few years may not
be too far off. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the source of these changes, and that many of these
won't be slabbed. In the past most of these came from sets which had only recently become available on
the market. These sets primarily have come from recent estate sales. Such sales have been dramatically
slowing for some time now especially for these earlier dates. The number of sets becoming available will
only be sufficient to supply the intact set market before much longer and numbers being slabbed from these
should decrease substantially. Much of the future slabbing will be from sets and singles which have been
previously set aside. While coins like the '81 could see substantial gains from new dismantling, those like
the SMS's and early ones will not.

edited for typos, punctuation, formatting.

PhillyJoe · September 18, 2004 10:14AM

Great thread. Prices and pops increase. I like that. Then there's the wild card play that the series will no longer be minted in 2010 at the outside. Marty will have been banned by 2005 (after the next Buffett concert) so we won't know what he's up to.

The SMS sets, like the accented hair, have a quirky following all their own.

Joe

Russ · September 18, 2004 10:18AM

<< The SMS sets, like the accented hair, have a quirky following all their own. >>

I'm not sure, but I think that might be an insult.

Russ, NCNE

PhillyJoe · September 18, 2004 10:28AM

Quirky was the nicest word I could think of.

Joe

ksteelheader · September 18, 2004 10:55AM

<< Marty will have been banned by 2005 (after the next Buffett concert) so we won't know what he's up to. >>

Please, say it isn't so!!!

Hey Don, good thread!

Ken

PhillyJoe · September 18, 2004 11:10AM

Don may actually be banned first if he uses the word 'codify' again.

DHeath · September 18, 2004 11:26AM

Sam, you hit on my exact premise. Part of my belief is that the populations will be fleshed out as a result of the premium the coins command and the additional pressure from a growing collector base. Commercial submissions will increase. The low hanging fruit will be exhausted, and a good many coins will be made. Coins like the 71 will become more pedestrian. The 69's, which are easier than the 68's by a good margin will become more common. The 64's IMO have been more closely examined, and although the supply is large, the unsearched supply is smaller than the 71. Dealers look at the 64's, in the same way they look for no S proof sets. Their population will not grow at the same rate as the 71, hence their position change on the list. As the general populations grow, the real tough coins will become evident to all, and even though the pops for these coins will grow marginally, they will never be common, and collectors will become increasingly aware how incredibly uncommon they are. Their prices will rise, IMO, in the face of growing pops, as Joe observed. JMO

Joe.....

OK, canonize.

PhillyJoe · September 18, 2004 11:35AM

Great, another word I have to go look up.

JRocco · September 18, 2004 12:17PM

Great thread Don. Wasn't it just the other day the subject of really good, informative threads were needed here... Well...You just put one here Don

segoja · November 19, 2004 9:22AM

Well I got close to the 66 DCAM. Made a 66 in 67DCAM and a 66 in 68CAM.

Does that qualify me for top pop?

ms70 · November 19, 2004 9:37AM

I'm ignoring this thread!

LindeDad · November 19, 2004 10:05AM

I like this kind of info on a set I'm interested in. Too bad it's not on the registery forum. But all those guys and gals talk about is dimes.

DHeath · January 13, 2005 2:09PM

Just a post to reveal the curve, and to examine whether the tough coins are still tough. The easy stuff is melting at the right rate, and the special coins are staying special.

10- 81T2 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 522--> 578 + 56

9 - 1969 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 370-->400 + 30

8 - 1968 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 190-->237 + 47

7 - 1970 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 163-->176 + 13

6 - 1964 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 61-->65 + 4

5 - 1971 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 44-->47 + 3

4 - 1967 PR-68 Dcam/Ucam 6-->6 + 0

3 - 64AH PR-68 Dcam/Ucam 8-->8 + 0

2 - 1965 PR-67 Dcam/Ucam 8-->8 + 0
8
1 - 1966 PR-68 Dcam/Ucam 4-->4 + 0

Updated 1/13/05
4

SanctionII · January 14, 2005 7:23AM

Don, thanks for the update. I assume that your listed populations are for PCGS graded coins only. What about populations for NGC graded coins of the same date, grades and designation? It would be interesting to have the NGC coins listed in the same format to observe the NGC pops. It would also be interesting to compare the PCGS pops with the NGC pops and have all of the forumites who play in this area of the hobby chime in with their comments about the these two grading services.

Thanks for the update. SanctionII.

Coinhusker1 · January 14, 2005 7:34AM

<< Don, thanks for the update. I assume that your listed populations are for PCGS graded coins only. What about populations for NGC graded coins of the same date, grades and designation? It would be interesting to have the NGC coins listed in the same format to observe the NGC pops. It would also be interesting to compare the PCGS pops with the NGC pops and have all of the forumites who play in this area of the hobby chime in with their comments about the these two grading services.

Thanks for the update. SanctionII. >>

The 68-70 are inflated by the ones Marty crossed!

cladking · January 14, 2005 7:41AM

One of the most interesting aspects of all this is that the rate at which most of the pre-1980
coins being slabbed in the highest grades is probably near its peak. The simple fact that the
prices of raw coins are down and that so many have been checked or destroyed would seem
to indicate this. If this is the peak rate of slabbing then there simply aren't going to be a lot
more.

At some point the second tier coins will start getting slabbed and these will take much longer
due to their greater numbers.

DHeath · January 14, 2005 11:47AM

CK,

There isn't much "fresh" material in the last half of the list even though there's a huge bounty available to anyone who finds one. Most of the other pops will grow as a direct result of NCS's ability to turn hazy coins into 9's. Odds are pretty good that anything that turns up on the list in the top 5 spots will be a previously holdered coin that gets a facelift. JMO

Sanction, I have the data, and will build a post.

tmot99 · January 14, 2005 12:43PM

I have the feeling that the number of collectors of this material will be somewhat stagnant. Some will come, some will go. At the same time, the market will come more and more flooded with coins as proof sets are brought to market, searched through, and the best get graded. For example, take a look at Russ and Marty. They submit a LOT of coins hoping for the best of the best. These are just two examples of the people that exist breaking apart proof sets and submitting. Are all proof sets known going to be broken? Of course not, but count on the most of the choice ones getting broken up. I question the prices increasing as you suggest. Limited number of collectors, limited but increasing (or likely to increase) number of premium coins coming to market. I estimate the increase in prices to be +20% max over the next 5 years.

DHeath · January 14, 2005 1:23PM

Tmot, that's the cool thing about putting my thoughts in writing. I stand a good chance of being completely and publicly wrong. Personally, I'm rooting for Russ and Marty. They're good friends, and I'd love to see them explode the pops, but the series isn't easy. In the last 3 years, Russ and Marty combined have placed a total of 3 coins in the top 5 categories, but many in the lower 5. They're more likely to find them than most. We'll see. The collector base is a wildcard.

More in 6 mos.............

DHeath · May 23, 2006 8:34AM

Time for a 2006 update.....

10- 81T2 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 522--> 578 --> 855 + 277

9 - 1969 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 370-->400 --> 434 + 34

8 - 1968 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 190-->237 --> 261 + 24

7 - 1970 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 163-->176 --> 202 + 26

6 - 1964 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 61-->65 --> 67 +2

5 - 1971 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 44-->47 --> 59 +12

4 - 1967 PR-68 Dcam/Ucam 6-->6 --> 6 +0

3 - 64AH PR-68 Dcam/Ucam 8-->8 --> 8 +0

2 - 1965 PR-67 Dcam/Ucam 8-->8 --> 8 +0
8
1 - 1966 PR-68 Dcam/Ucam 4-->4 --> 4 +0

Updated 5/23/06

Russ · May 23, 2006 8:40AM

Fascinating. Some of these are already valued higher than your 2010 estimates.

<< 6 - 1964 PR-69 Dcam/Ucam 61-->65 --> 67 +2 >>

That one has more than doubled in market value since your original post.

Russ, NCNE

DHeath · May 23, 2006 9:13AM

Hardly a population explosion in the upper tier, and it looks like the coins haven't fallen from favor with collectors yet. I believe I was way too optimistic regarding population growth.

Russ · May 23, 2006 9:15AM

<< I was way too optimistic regarding population growth. >>

<< I think, however, that you're being a touch optimistic in the population growth for the 1965 and 1966 SMS coins, as well as the Accented Hair >>

Russ, NCNE

SanctionII · May 23, 2006 9:43AM

I assume my post of today about 50-70 CAM/DCAM coins prompted Don to bring this post back to the top with 2006 updated figures. Thanks for the information Don.

I will go out on a limb with a 2 predictions.

#1 - By 5-23-2010 the pops for 1964 DCAM AH Kennedy proofs will remain unchanged at 4 (unless Russ finds and submits one or more to increase the pops); and

#2 - By 5-23-2006 the market value of 1964 DCAM AH Kennedy Proofs will be higher than they are today.

Prediction #1 is quiet bold on my part, don't you think?

Prediction #2 is of the DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHH variety, don't you think?

Russ · May 23, 2006 9:45AM

<< Prediction #1 is quiet bold on my part, don't you think? >>

Yes it is, particularly since the pop is at 8.

Russ, NCNE

SanctionII · May 23, 2006 9:47AM

BTW, what is the current value of 1964 non AH Proof 67, 68 or 69 CAM proof Kennedies. I have two that are raw that IMHO would clearly be CAM and could quite possibly be 67 or 68 (or in my wildest dream 69).

BTW, what are the current pops of 1967 DCAM SMS Quarters in all grades (I have one that IMHO is a lock DCAM)

BTW, what are the current pops of a 1950 CAM Franklin in all grades.

SanctionII · May 23, 2006 9:50AM

Mea Culpa Russ, I meant 8, but I experienced a "typing finger malfunction".

Do you think any new 68 DCAM 64 AH halves will be made in the next four years?

Russ · May 23, 2006 10:00AM

<< BTW, what is the current value of 1964 non AH Proof 67, 68 or 69 CAM proof Kennedies. >>

PR67CAM - $40
PR68CAM - $70
PR69CAM - $150

<< Do you think any new 68 DCAM 64 AH halves will be made in the next four years? >>

Yes. I'd guess that perhaps two will be made.

Russ, NCNE

SanctionII · May 23, 2006 10:02AM

Thank you Russ.

Gemineye · May 23, 2006 10:16AM

In eleven years 11.....2017....100 year Anniversary..........JFK..

gamr0n · May 23, 2006 10:50AM

<< 
#1 - By 5-23-2010 the pops for 1964 DCAM AH Kennedy proofs will remain unchanged at 4 (unless Russ finds and submits one or more to increase the pops); and
>>

I will find one by then!

PhillyJoe · May 23, 2006 11:37AM

I enjoyed reading this again; but I've yet to use Don's 'codify' in a sentence in the last year and a half.

Thousands of 1964 to 1967 "proof" sets have been opened since this thread was originally started but the pops remain virtually frozen.
This defies logic, but the high grade D/C's are just toooooo hard to find. Russ has had a couple of close calls, but his next '64 68D/C accented hair is still out there. Production quality has a lot to do with the hunt.

Not one proof 69 Deep/Ultra Cameo Accented Hair graded by either service in the last 20 years. Even the 1964 SMS MS69 Kennedys can't make that claim.

Damn milk spots. Maybe someday. Codify.

There, I used it Don.

Joe

DHeath · June 26, 2007 10:33AM

Time for a 2007 update.....

10- 81T2 PR-69 Dcam 522--> 578 --> 855 -->990

9 - 1969 PR-69 Dcam 370-->400 --> 434 -->462

8 - 1968 PR-69 Dcam 190-->237 --> 261 -->268

7 - 1970 PR-69 Dcam 163-->176 --> 202 -->211

6 - 1964 PR-69 Dcam 61-->65 --> 67 -->69

5 - 1971 PR-69 Dcam 44-->47 --> 59 -->61

4 - 1967 PR-68 Dcam 6-->6 --> 6 -->6

3 - 64AH PR-68 Dcam 8-->8 --> 8 -->8

2 - 1965 PR-67 Dcam 8-->8 --> 8 -->8

1 - 1966 PR-68 Dcam 4-->4 --> 4 -->4

Tough year. Two more 71's, and zero in the top 4 slots.

jmski52 · June 26, 2007 10:54AM

Good thread, but way beyond my scope. Watch out for grabba - isn't he on some kind of binge looking for accented hairs & stuff?

FatMan · June 26, 2007 10:58AM

Don, this is a great idea. Makes for good reading, even if I am not a Kennedy proof collector.

PhillyJoe · June 26, 2007 11:29AM

I can think of one or two members who have made most of the new 1969's in D/C. Suddenly, I have an urge for some Illinois chicken.

Joe

Russ · June 26, 2007 11:36AM

<< I think, however, that you're being a touch optimistic in the population growth for the 1965 and 1966 SMS coins, as well as the Accented Hair >>

Russ, NCNE

DHeath · June 26, 2007 11:54AM

It's still early, but you're looking like Nostradamus.

And thanks John.

speety · June 26, 2007 12:16PM

What about the dot-head population and prices?

grabba · June 26, 2007 12:23PM

<< What about the dot-head population and prices? >>

That is modern crap but tell Russ.

I want to know why the 1972 PR69DCAM is such a low end coin as far as cost but it is a top pop coin?

SanctionII · June 27, 2007 1:52AM

Great thread from the past. Only three more years to see how spot on DHeath turns out to be with his 2004 predictions.

I would like to think that some of the Proof and SMS Kennedies I have cherrypicked over the years that are currently sitting raw in my stash could increase the pops of the listed coins. Then I come back to reality and laugh at how presumptuous I am being

eyoung429 · June 27, 2007 2:02AM

Russ, haven't you made 3 more this past year? Will have to go look the data up.

Russ · June 27, 2007 2:21AM

<< Russ, haven't you made 3 more this past year? Will have to go look the data up. >>

If you're referring to the Accented Hairs, his data set includes only the pop top PR68DCAM so the answer is no. The last PR68DCAM was graded in April, 2003. I did recently cross two PR66DCAMs from NGC holders for a consignor, though.

Russ, NCNE

eyoung429 · June 27, 2007 2:47AM

ahh....that must be what I remembered.

Thanks!

cladking · June 27, 2007 7:51AM

<< Great thread from the past. Only three more years to see how spot on DHeath turns out to be with his 2004 predictions.

I would like to think that some of the Proof and SMS Kennedies I have cherrypicked over the years that are currently sitting raw in my stash could increase the pops of the listed coins. Then I come back to reality and laugh at how presumptuous I am being

>>

I've been at it for decades and will be lucky if I add a couple to the pops.

I do wish you luck though (and hope you don't need it)

Ignore (unless you're a Kennedy proof collector) 2007 pops

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