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I think Breen is wrong about 2-Cent SM mintage guess
Prethen
Posts: 3,466 ✭✭✭
I think the mintage of the 1864 2-Cent Small Motto are more likely about 6+ times (about 18000-20000 minted) versus Breen's guess of a few(? - I forget his exact words) thousand before they switched dies.
I don't have strong proof, just circumstantial evidence. Here it goes:
Usually, coins of the mid-1800's would (as a guess) have a survival rate of no better than 50% for surviving until today. Some might say, it's more like 10% or less. Let's just say for argument's sake 50%. Let's say they minted 3000 Small Motto's. That leaves 1500 floating around today. Of those 1500, about half are probably in terrible shape (corroded, pitted, damaged, etc.). That leaves about 750 in decent collectible condition of AG+.
In the 2+ years I've been combing through auctions and dealer listings, I've seen many Small Motto's come up for sale. Usually there in low grades and look terrible. The rest of the time, they're very high grades meant for the well healed collector. Most of the stuff I see is also raw. NGC shows under 500 graded. I'm guessing that PCGS and ANACS are about the same for a total of 1500 graded. Divide that by half for resubmits and I'll guess that at least 750 are in slabs (which seems low).
There's a good chance, even at a small show of finding one or more SM's at a table or two. I've been to a local show where a dealer had a stack of them for sale. But, all of them sucked. Miller's Mint, L&C, eBay, etc. many times have multiples for sale. Jack Beymer even had several about a month ago or so.
Just by the empirical evidence of relative availability states that this coin is much more common than a coin where only 1500 survive. Even if all 3000 survive....or let's go crazy 5000 survive, it seems like it's still too available. Now, I'll grant you, finding a decent mid-grade specimen is quite a challenge. I should know, I finally got one this week after over 2 years of serious searching.
Also, you have to take into account that there are more than a handful of serious collections out there with this coin already in it that are simply off the market and have been so for awhile. I would guess that there's got to be at least several hundred off of the market if not more.
Moreover, the 1872 coin seems to be even LESS available than the SM and about 65000 were minted of those. That's one VERY difficult coin to find on a decent planchet without problems in ANY grade.
I could be off my rocker, but if I were to guess, I'd say either the dies were used longer than the Mint records show or something else is amiss. Anyone else want to shed some light on this? Go ahead and call me all wet; I can take it!
Bruce
I don't have strong proof, just circumstantial evidence. Here it goes:
Usually, coins of the mid-1800's would (as a guess) have a survival rate of no better than 50% for surviving until today. Some might say, it's more like 10% or less. Let's just say for argument's sake 50%. Let's say they minted 3000 Small Motto's. That leaves 1500 floating around today. Of those 1500, about half are probably in terrible shape (corroded, pitted, damaged, etc.). That leaves about 750 in decent collectible condition of AG+.
In the 2+ years I've been combing through auctions and dealer listings, I've seen many Small Motto's come up for sale. Usually there in low grades and look terrible. The rest of the time, they're very high grades meant for the well healed collector. Most of the stuff I see is also raw. NGC shows under 500 graded. I'm guessing that PCGS and ANACS are about the same for a total of 1500 graded. Divide that by half for resubmits and I'll guess that at least 750 are in slabs (which seems low).
There's a good chance, even at a small show of finding one or more SM's at a table or two. I've been to a local show where a dealer had a stack of them for sale. But, all of them sucked. Miller's Mint, L&C, eBay, etc. many times have multiples for sale. Jack Beymer even had several about a month ago or so.
Just by the empirical evidence of relative availability states that this coin is much more common than a coin where only 1500 survive. Even if all 3000 survive....or let's go crazy 5000 survive, it seems like it's still too available. Now, I'll grant you, finding a decent mid-grade specimen is quite a challenge. I should know, I finally got one this week after over 2 years of serious searching.
Also, you have to take into account that there are more than a handful of serious collections out there with this coin already in it that are simply off the market and have been so for awhile. I would guess that there's got to be at least several hundred off of the market if not more.
Moreover, the 1872 coin seems to be even LESS available than the SM and about 65000 were minted of those. That's one VERY difficult coin to find on a decent planchet without problems in ANY grade.
I could be off my rocker, but if I were to guess, I'd say either the dies were used longer than the Mint records show or something else is amiss. Anyone else want to shed some light on this? Go ahead and call me all wet; I can take it!
Bruce
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IT makes sence to me
now.........................................................................................
would someone please post a small and large motto 1864 on these boards so we can see the difference ?? and how to tell the two apart an EASY fullproof way
1864 2 Cent Info
The easiest way for me to tell is to look at the "N" in the word "IN". If the N is taller than wide it is the large motto type. If it is wider than tall it is the small motto type.
Hope this helps...Mike
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It would be interesting if we could have some of the guys going to the Long Beach Show check the numbers of each available.
Often whats available at shows can be misleading. Dealers will often bring the keys etc and leave the more comon stuff at home. Just because there are a lot of SM mottos in the cases didn't mean they were more common than the rest, just that these were the ones they knew buyers were searching for and so they would bring them to the show.
<< <i>Often whats available at shows can be misleading. Dealers will often bring the keys etc and leave the more comon stuff at home. Just because there are a lot of SM mottos in the cases didn't mean they were more common than the rest, just that these were the ones they knew buyers were searching for and so they would bring them to the show. >>
I'm definitely not saying that the Small Motto is more common than the rest. I'm just saying that the coin seems to be more common than traditional (Breen) mintage guesswork shows. I think it's off a bunch. It still doesn't make it your typical common junk or any less scarce than it already is. And, it's definitely less available than the ultra-common SVDB, but 3000+ seems too low for a mintage guess.