What's the conscientious collector to do about the ever-increasing prices of coins?
dan1ecu
Posts: 1,573
Is it just me, or are prices rising to higher and higher levels with each auction? Could it be that collectors are now conditioned to expect prices to continue rising? Could this be what's driving the market?
What do you think... could we be in for a decade of rising coin prices (kind of like stocks in the 90's)? What's the conscientious collector to do -- wait for prices to fall, buy into a rising market, or... what?
Do you think it will get to the point in the not so distant future where we're paying $200+ for MS64 Franklins, or $500+ for MS65 Morgans? If not, what will stop it?
Dan
What do you think... could we be in for a decade of rising coin prices (kind of like stocks in the 90's)? What's the conscientious collector to do -- wait for prices to fall, buy into a rising market, or... what?
Do you think it will get to the point in the not so distant future where we're paying $200+ for MS64 Franklins, or $500+ for MS65 Morgans? If not, what will stop it?
Dan
0
Comments
Being the biggest coin nerd on the block or playing the MINE'S BIGGER game of collecting is just not me so if the prices continue to rise i'm just sitting here watching and enjoying the hobby without buying much.
I'm not into heavily circulated coins and I prefer coins from the 1800's so I just might die with my 100 or so ms60+ coins from that era rather than a few complete sets like I thought i'd have when I got back into the hobby 5 or 6 years ago.
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The market is already slowing. I dont think you're going to see $200 MS64 common date 64 Franklins or $500 common date 65 Morgans in the near future.
David
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Most high grade pre 1835 coins have been very hot. I try to get nice material that the registry set crowd won't find 'interesting.' At the Long Beach Signature Sale, I picked up a really nice 1807 Dime in NGC 3 between Greysheet bid and ask. High grade Seated and Barber type dimes are cheap. They've dropped in price in the last 5 years. However, the same kind of type quarters and halves in the same grades are bringing stronger money.
If a coin has attractive color, forget it. Some pendejo with deep pockets thinks it has been blessed by Allah and will sell various family members to get it. I remember ANR had probably the most colorful Barber Half I've ever seen at a recent auction. Due to numerous contact marks on Miss Liberty's cheek, it was a 5 on a good day. However, bidders went ape**** about the coin.
If you want nice type dollars at reasonable prices, forget it.
While I'd like to complete my type set, I know that now is not the best time to do this. Instead, I try to buy nice coins for IMO reasonable prices. Often, I don't get anything. I can wait.
A question I have is that given the tremendous amount of high end material that has been sold in the last two years, how long can this continue? When the market crashes, and it will crash again, I will be there with cash and a big smile on my face. That's how I bought my home, and that's probably how I'll get my Bust $ as well.
The only advice I can give is to keep looking at coins, keep an eye on prices, and wait. Alternatively, look for nice coins which aren't 'hot' right now. They ARE out there.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
To me auctions are mostly a pain in the butt. You have to go over EVERY lot to determine if the coin is as described and worthwhile. Dealers have a big advantage on that score, because virtually every lot could be of interest to them if the price is attractive. Collectors usually have a much narrower focus, which makes their possibility of success less certain.
Then you have to sit though hours of bidding on “stuff” that might not interest you at all. When you finally get to the lots that interest you, the whole thing can become a waste of time if there are high reserve bids, there is a shill working the floor or a “yahoo” who will pay whatever it takes, no matter how high the bidding goes. Then you add to that the outrageous buyers’ fees that are now up to 20% (which some people seem to treat as a "throw away"], and you have got a less than enjoyable experience. (As a dealer, boy would I love to have customers who would treat an automatic 20% mark-up as a "Throw away!"]
No, unless you are a collector with a wide focus of interest, or an extremely wealthy collector who is buying the rarest or the finest known, buying via private treaty is the way to go IMO.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
K S
<< <i>Prices will fall within the next couple years most likely. Personally I plan to wait till then to buy any coins. Of course, some people are addicted to buying new coins and can't stop, but I'm a little too financially concious (read-cheap!) to do that. Perhaps that keeps me from being a "real" collector, but it also keeps my bank account a little bit sounder. >>
In general I agree with you. When the coin market is outrageous, it’s best to either sit on the sidelines or keep you head below the foxhole and purchase items that are relatively safe. That’s what I did in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s when prices were set by totally idiotic people who were throwing money at collectables like coins because of inflation and a dead stock market. Many of those people lost much of what they spent and deservedly so.
Until recently much of what was driving this market was collector demand. As such the rising prices were legitimate for most sectors of the classic coin market. The only area where I had reservations was in the registry driven sections of modern coin market. There are two questions that remain unanswered. Is the pull registry going to be a permanent fixture in the coin market, or is it a passing fad? AND is the supply of “super grade” modern coins really small enough to sustain high prices? Those are still two questions that one should consider before one pays runaway prices for coins in that segment of the market.
Recently we have seen articles in publications like “The Wall Street Journal” that investors are getting involved in the coin market. This is great news for some coin dealers, but it sucks for collectors and could really suck for market over the next couple of years. If these people start throwing money at the coin market the way they did two and half decades ago, we could be in for another rollercoaster ride.
My advice is study your hobby and learn as much as you can about the TRUE rarity and popularity of what you collect. Think like a collector and don’t get hung up on fads. If your collecting interests run to items that are out of style or under appreciated AND you can buy such items for short dollars, indulge yourself. I collect Civil War tokens and 19th century presidential campaign medalets. For years I thought that I kind of throwing money away on this stuff, but at least it was not THAT much money. Now the prices on that part of my collection have gone up faster than most anything else I own.
Collect what you enjoy within financial reason. You can’t too far wrong by doing that.
Dan
mcinnes@mailclerk.ecok.edu">dmcinnes@mailclerk.ecok.edu
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Up markets do bring so good stuff out of the woodwork, but I still prefer down markets when it comes to finding bargains. You have to work at it, but the dividends can be quite rewarding.
We are also probably in different relms. I tend to collect type, while you are far more into varieties than I am.
<< <i>What's the conscientious collector to do about the ever-decreasing prices of coins? >>
I did NOT make this up!!!!!!!!
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This market has got so many dealers chasing the upgrade coin that many original specimens are being "conserved" by the great Satan that is NCS. Some people like their coins white and glossy...but most collectors do not, and in the end it is ALWAYS the collectors that hold the market up and keep it from falling into complete ruin.
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