ya'll want to see how bad you got stuck ? these will ALL readjust soon

doop · February 15, 2005 8:02PM

Found a greysheet looking through some old built up stuff, March 22, 1996 this is on the great Morgan $ gouges, most of the runup took place just in the last 2yrs or so. Broused at one from 92 and most were about half of the 1996 on btr date
Date Grade vg f vf xf au ms60 1996 bid/then the NOW Feb11, 2005 bid
1878cc 22/73 23/75 27/80 29/85 40/95 60/170
1879cc 27/84 40/92 75/135 250460 625/975 1025/2500
79cc c/d 27/82 40/92 75/130 185/425 425/925 1000/2300
1889cc 140/460 170/660 280/1250 700/2600 2100/4900 5200/16000............<check this one for sure, huh ?
1893p 46/105 54/125 60/140 78/175 130/235 240/460
18930 57/135 65/175 80/260 145/440 385/760 close
1893cc 50/140 70/190 130/400 340/1250? 600/1700? 875/2650 2300/5800 (ms63)
1893-s 550/2150 820/3150 1150/4500 2800/7250? 9200/17800 23000/58000 (this date has been major manipped
1894p 165/865? 190/900? 220/1150? 260/1650? 425/2250?? 665/3600? (by far the worse manipulation ever!)
1895o 75/240 83/325 100/425 150/650?? 575/1150 6500/13000? (close to the worst)
1895s 85/150 110/200 150/250 310/460 550/1200 975/2550
1903s 11/34 16/45 50/90 210/210? 725/1325 1850/3000
1921p 17/66 20/70 25/75 30/82 60/117 95/160
1928p 85/280 90/305 95/315 100/320 110/360 125/375

wam98 · February 15, 2005 8:22PM

"these will all readjust soon"

And the reason being ????????

ColonialCoinUnion · February 15, 2005 8:41PM

<< these will ALL readjust soon >>

Thats UNCANNY! While you're at it, can you let me know what the weather will be like in Connecticut next August? We're planning a trip with the children and I hate to pick a week with a lot of rain.

doop · February 15, 2005 8:49PM

<<

"these will all readjust soon"

And the reason being ???????? >>

being in the know allows you to know how these things work, in cycles. the buzz is this has tapped with smart buyers all over the country. they are just quitting paying these absurd prices, that is if they know where the levels were just a few years ago. THEN was the time to buy for collections or for knowing how to gauge a market and help your customers win.

tsacch · February 15, 2005 8:50PM

wow, lots of numbers but all mushed together and too confusing for me to look at........................

doop · February 15, 2005 8:51PM

<< 

<< these will ALL readjust soon >>

Thats UNCANNY! While you're at it, can you let me know what the weather will be like in Connecticut next August? We're planning a trip with the children and I hate to pick a week with a lot of rain. >>

warm, with cool evenings. possibly a mild shower or 2. nothing to stop you and the kids from going.

doop · February 15, 2005 9:09PM

Oh yeah,the ones who have recently purchased these coins will be the loudest nay-sayers. do your research, listen to the dealers who will actually tell you like it really is. form a consensus. they all agree when they dont have any to sell or will
tell you these will drop fairly well because of too much dealer buy-up,manipulate bids on the sheet,etc. they know this from the inside. happens with cert dollars,especially the common 65,66,67's that yes, will be going back down as well. SOON. these were 58-60 bucks just not long ago. the bigs buy em up by thousands,run bids up,no more buys,hefty profits taken in the runup sell off and this is how it works,simple as that.
ALSO, this toned dollar nutcase money thing will come back to a reasonable premium over bid,some better than others. BUT, you wont be seeing a whole lot more $150 common date nicely toned morgans going for 2-3g,even more. More like 300 to 500. dealers still buy them at the regular price most often, plus SOME premium.
These been several threads on this where dealer x buys from dealer y a coin for 150 bucks and try to get 2g for it.
That is insane also

Purple73 · February 15, 2005 9:34PM

Found a greysheet looking through some old built up stuff, March 22, 1996 this is on the great Morgan $ gouges, most of the runup took place just in the last 2yrs or so. Broused at one from 92 and most were about half of the 1996 on btr date

1996 bid/then the NOW Feb11, 2005 bid

Date-----Grade--VG---------F-----------vf ------------xf------------au------------ms60
1878cc---------22/73----23/75------27/80--------29/85-------40/95---------60/170

1879cc---------27/84----40/92------75/135------250460-----625/975-----1025/2500

79cc c/d--------27/82----40/92-----75/130------185/425-----425/925----1000/2300

1889cc--------140/460--170/660--280/1250---700/2600---2100/4900---5200/16000<--------check this one for sure, huh ?

1893p----------46/105----54/125---60/140-------78/175------130/235-----240/460

18930-----------57/135----65/175---80/260------145/440----385/760-------close

1893cc----------50/140----70/190---130/400----340/1250?---600/1700?---875/2650--- 2300/5800 (ms63)

1893-s--------550/2150--820/3150--1150/4500-2800/7250?-9200/17800-23000/58000 (this date has been major manipped)

1894p---------165/865?---190/900?---220/1150?-260/1650?-425/2250??-665/3600? (by far the worse manipulation ever!)

1895o----------75/240------83/325-----100/425----150/650?---575/1150--6500/13000? (close to the worst)

1895s----------85/150-----110/200-----150/250----310/460----550/1200----975/2550

1903s----------11/34--------16/45--------50/90------210/210?---725/1325---1850/3000

1921p----------17/66--------20/70--------25/75--------30/82-------60/117-------95/160

1928p---------85/280-------90/305------95/315------100/320-----110/360-----125/375

Purple73 · February 15, 2005 9:37PM

There that helps a bit.....a little clearer now!

doop · February 15, 2005 9:46PM

<< There that helps a bit.....a little clearer now! >>

Heck I did it like that but it came out all jumbled up

Blackhawk · February 15, 2005 10:58PM

I don't know if you can apply cycles (at least the cycles that we saw before) to todays market because of the influence of the internet on collecting.

mrfred · February 15, 2005 11:03PM

I think Blackhawk has an excellent point.

Doop, why do you compare bid prices and not ask, or not both bid and ask? Do you think that bid is a better index of the trending of the market, or in your argument, of its manipulation?

Purple73 · February 15, 2005 11:05PM

Doop, You have to add dashes. The forum doesn't see multiple spaces as an entity.

dimples · February 15, 2005 11:15PM

I'm Still waitimg for the prices to go go back to 1960 greysheet

I think what your pointing out is only supply and demand from easy access to coins via the internet.

doop · February 16, 2005 12:29AM

<< I'm Still waitimg for the prices to go go back to 1960 greysheet

I think what your pointing out is only supply and demand from easy access to coins via the internet. >>

Negative ! this is a well known inside fact that occurs over the dealer networks, the internet hasn't got a thing to do
with it, other than one small place they unload the stuff once it's hit overpriced highs. Most occurs at shows and shops.
They'll sell off the current guides where the bigshots gobbled up $millions in these then run buys out on open,
the CDN follows this, but after certain levels of buying at shows,networks,private deals,those buy levels will still be ran out, thus the CDN follows. No REAL verification on their part. However higher they can keep pushing they are then always "filled for now" when you get with them on a load. go to sell them to dealers,
unless they have ready customers at current levels you wont get squat compared to what the "sheet says" because they'll
say all those dollars had been recently manipulated up for near future selloffs and are extremely overpriced. thus the downfall
begins.
spoof spoken nekops foops

Bear · February 16, 2005 12:32AM

The internet has made for a more efficient market

and a better informed collector base. As Doops said

though, there are still coin cycles, manipulation of prices

by the biggies. In some ways, reletively numerous coins

can be manipulated much like the stock market, you just

have to be careful. Toned coins are nice, just dont go crazy

on prices for reletively common coins.When this coin cycle is over

we will have a large base of experienced and wiser collectors.

Chassened perhaps, but wiser.

kieferscoins · February 16, 2005 12:34AM

You better sell out then Doop before its too late!

Cameron Kiefer

pharmer · February 16, 2005 12:44AM

Oh, you're looking at it from dealer to dealer. I was wondering what you were drinking this early. Well, I'm going to go out on a limb here, but I have a hunch this computer thingy is going to catch on, and maybe even this internet doohicky. It's even possible there are other buyers for these coins (good research, BTW) than dealers, however. The moral of the story: its a brave new world, old timer, and I resemble that remark, and nothing will be as it was. And that's OK, should be fun, and since you already owned them before this happened, your coins should be worth more, even those tarnished common date morgans.

doop · February 16, 2005 12:47AM

<< The internet has made for a more efficient market

and a better informed collector base. As Doops said

though, there are still coin cycles, manipulation of prices

by the biggies. In some ways, reltively numerous coins

can be manipulated much like the stock market, you just

have to be careful. Toned coins are nice, just dont go crazy

on prices for reletively common coins.WShen this coin cycle is over

we will have a large base of experienced and wiser collectors.

Chassened perhaps, but wiser. >>

And considerably far less in the pocket for what will ever net in most's lifetimes, most be in the sinker on the the toners.
Plus what most people don't consider (not rainbow) but average toned coins, well, those were still 10 back of bid type items just until not too long ago. Dollars with arches of color brought regular money not 3-4 times bid.
AND, look for the specks and hazies on a lot of the coins bringing like 8 to 10 times bids on 63's,4's,5,s and 6's too.
There are not but a true few that will bring insane money in the aftermath. It is NOT those you see going for STUPID $$
currently only worth and bought by the gupps that will pay that insane money in one venue or another. Theyll learn

Tonekiller · February 16, 2005 12:52AM

Doop,

This market has made a steady but not crazy raise over the last 3 years. Some better date stuff has been messed with but that's always the case. Toners, you are correct on B color stuff but the A color coins have not really changed in 20 years (based off of auction data and tracking the resell of A coins)

The collector base is growing along with the dealer base. Collectors are strong in communicating there want list and are not being held at the mercy of the dealers. Information flows on all levels. The bull market has created many niche areas in coins that are being expanded by specialized internet savvy dealers / collectors (wannabe's) and that has changed the total dynamics of the coin business.

No longer is it necessary to buy or sell at a show but to own a digital camera, offer a good return, and be computer literate. Dealers are slowly realizing that the coin business is going global. When one dealer turns in 13.5 thousand PCGS cert cards the collector / dealer base responds with anticipation and anger. POP's change and systems are being put into place to further correct them. This is happening because the market said "Do it" or else. Think how many of us now meet in on line communities to engage in shop talk, education, vigilantism

, and general friendship.

That is power in the making and shows this industry is strong and going to continue to be strong. Sheets will correct but the swing is up....slowly but steady.

IMHO,

TBT

Bear · February 16, 2005 1:01AM

When all the arguments and counter arguments are over

it is the passage of time that will tell the tale.

doop · February 16, 2005 1:10AM

<< When all the arguments and counter arguments are over

it is the passage of time that will tell the tale. >>

correct and I do happen to know what i'm talking about, seen it for near 30 years now, in depth. it happens in instances
like these and this is one of them. just take a look at the cycles of what happens to those known artificial runups

Tonekiller · February 16, 2005 1:18AM

I would agree on the crazy price increase some dates have seen but not on the general market. The wise old bear is correct, time will tell.....buts thats true with everything.

Merc · February 16, 2005 1:42AM

Good post doop. Some of those Morgans are way up. Coins don't normally triple in price in 2 years and maintain those levels. Take a look at MS65 common date Walkers. Many have fallen sharply in the last 7 months. Other more scarce coins have seen a slow steady rise.

Russ · February 16, 2005 1:58AM

<< I don't know if you can apply cycles (at least the cycles that we saw before) to todays market because of the influence of the internet on collecting. >>

Yes, the internet has changed everything. Just ask all the people who loaded up on dot.coms in the late '90's.

Russ, NCNE

doop · February 16, 2005 2:46AM

<< 

<< I don't know if you can apply cycles (at least the cycles that we saw before) to todays market because of the influence of the internet on collecting. >>

Yes, the internet has changed everything. Just ask all the people who loaded up on dot.coms in the late '90's.

Russ, NCNE >>

uhh yeah, and now are sucking hint tit thinking the internet was going to go nuclear, when 95% lost their butts. the internet only accounts for about maybe 2% of coin deals and sales. MAYbe 2% AND that's mostly those who've thought they had something in it for making any difference. WRONG! it's these ones who have made it seem more relevant to the rare coin industry when it is not who have been the winners selling to the price suckers and where most dealers take items like these dollars to sell to the gupps because of.
phhhhh! the internet dont have a thing to do with how much the pros in coins gives a rats, it's where they find the
biggest IDIOTS

K6AZ · February 16, 2005 3:05AM

What doops is trying to say is that there has been some pretty heavy manipulation in a lot of the key dates. Now some will want to believe it is "demand", but I can tell you that a lot of this has to do with a few big shots sitting on thousands of coins, things like the 90-CC and 91-CC. Look at the run up in those prices over the last 18 months. Sooner or later it will be profit taking time, and as usual, the collectors who bought into this hype will be caught holding the bag.

Just remember, what goes up must come down. It will happen, it's just a matter of time.

originalisbest · February 16, 2005 3:16AM

There is wisdom to be had in understanding coin cycles. Certain key dates in various series, it will cause you to stop and think twice when even comparing advertised retail prices of even a couple years ago vs. currently. I have put off some coin purchases as a result of it - we'll see in the future.

It reminds me of when I REALLy wanted a Connecticut half in "MS-65" back around 1989, but just knew, looking at the price, there was no way I could ever get one - only a few years later and one was mine for a LOT less than I (as an 18 year old kid in '89) thought I'd ever get one for. Things go up as well as down!

In general, I'd advise against "joe collector" overreaching past their comfort point for what is, after all, an unneeded (but certainly fun!) part of our lives.

dimples · February 16, 2005 3:21AM

You must realize When I mention the internet I don't mean E-bay sales , but Dealer inventories with photos are available to even the remotest collector. You don't have to be held prisoner by your local shop. You don't have to spend $500 -$1000 to attend national conventions to find great coins.

If you don't believe me ask LAURA

BAJJERFAN · February 16, 2005 2:04PM

Well I hope all those dealers who are hoardin stuff to manipulate prices choke on it when the market crashes. We can use the "net" to tell folks not to buy that stuff until the price drops to a third of what it is now. These days news can be around the world in a matter of minutes.

Elcontador · February 16, 2005 4:11PM

This sort of thing probably has been happening as long as people have been collecting coins. I remember when a roll of BU 1955 S cents cost more than my 1936 S Walker in BU (which is now in a PC 6 holder).

Bust $s have been hyped for around the last three years. Here's the deal. I don't want to pay $8,000 for a cleaned AU 50 Bust Dollar slabbed by one of the majors. So, I don't buy one. It's that simple. If you think a coin is priced too high, you don't buy it. If you own a coin that you think is priced too high, you sell it. That's what I did with my 1883 & 1884 CC $s in PC 5.

Most of the material I need for my type set is 1835 & earlier material. Unfortunately for me, everyone wants this material right now and prices range from high to absolutely absurd. So I'll wait.

A possible exception here can be extremely rare -- and expensive -- coins which maybe 1 out of 1,000 posters can afford.

Coin Finder · February 17, 2005 2:12AM

Wasnt a dollar worth more in 1996?

Tbig

DeepCoin · February 17, 2005 2:43AM

The coin market is actually a rather thin market, thus subject to manipulation if you have deep pockets. I do not doubt there is some of this going on. But in the end, it will always be supply and demand. There is a strong demand for early US coins right now and the Bust Dollar prices reflect that. Given the inventory and the prices, I will wait that one out.

Perhaps I will be wrong, but I have other collecting interests so I will apportion my funds accordingly. In some small way, I hope that my actions will help result in a more efficient market.

Coinhusker1 · February 17, 2005 3:37AM

<< What doops is trying to say is that there has been some pretty heavy manipulation in a lot of the key dates. Now some will want to believe it is "demand", but I can tell you that a lot of this has to do with a few big shots sitting on thousands of coins, things like the 90-CC and 91-CC. Look at the run up in those prices over the last 18 months. Sooner or later it will be profit taking time, and as usual, the collectors who bought into this hype will be caught holding the bag.

Just remember, what goes up must come down. It will happen, it's just a matter of time. >>

K6, Any idea who this big shots are?

morgannut2 · February 17, 2005 10:09AM

Well actually I'm not much for manipulation and conspiracy type theory, but Doop has a point. I bought a Morgan NGC 1890CC MS-63 at Balimore B/M for $700+ the vig, by the time I got it, fooled around, submitted it to PCGS the second time, (xrossed), and just got it back--the darn bid is $1650!!!! No way some dealers aren't playing with the market here.

BUT!!!!--the manipulation idea by Doop is at best only partly right for the top key dates. OK, he's sort of right because dealers know this too. Collectors of Morgans habitually start off with very nice but more common dates. It's incredible, but if someone says they're missing only 7-9 coins, I'd bet many dealers can guess all the missing dates and be off by only one coin!!!

Here's the problem!!-- With regard the the 95O, 92S, 89CC, and especially the 1894P-- There just aren't that many nice AU and better coins left. For example, I'd bet well over 30% of the 93S Morgans that are certified even, are either net graded by ANACS or sold raw with problems!! Check the Heritage Auction History/ other auctions yourself. (I include 3rd tier as problems or questionable quality/originality)

So--the worst examples of price "manipulation" is really an example I think of a cycle or wave of newer collectors all scrambling for the same 7-9 coins that they put off buying. But price drops for the tough ones--why?; If they are uncommon and still needed by 100's of collectors.

MrEureka · February 17, 2005 11:02AM

Interesting post, but how do you figure out if the coins used to be too cheap or if the coins are now too expensive, or both?

ya'll want to see how bad you got stuck ? these will ALL readjust soon

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