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Poll: Grading and Dealer Test: Could we pull it off?
RYK
Posts: 35,801 ✭✭✭✭✭
In the wake of the much publicized, but poorly conceived, Coin World grading survey done earlier this year, and in light of the continued questions and concerns over dealers like Coast-to-Coast and other CW advertisers, could this community perform a test of both issues?
Hypotheses: NGC and PCGS are top graders and virtually equivalent in consistency
and CTC and other dealers that advertise in Coin World sell mostly garbabe, problem, overgraded coins.
Design:
1. Collect $50 from each board member sponsor.
2. Collect/purchase four groups of raw coins and one group of slabbed coins. These coins need not be expensive, though it would be useful to include a few gold coins (generic $2.50's and $5's would do nicely). The coins from the advertisers should have verification of purchase from that advertiser (a receipt) and never having been previously sent to a grading service. There would be six coins in each group. Example: one Indian cent, one buffalo nickel, one Barber quarter, one Franklin half, one Morgan, and one Liberty $2.50 or $5.
3. The coins would then be submitted to PCI, SEGS, ICG, ANACS, NGC, and PCGS via the least expensive/economy route. The mint state coins that get graded would then be resent to ANACS, NGC, and PCGS to test the consistency of the established majors.
4. Coins will all be in the AU to "Gem BU" range, where much of the contraversy exists.
5. At the end of the study, the coins that were purchased for the study could be sold on ebay
My estimate is that grading/mailing costs for the study would be around $2500. If we have to purchase coins from the dealers that would add to the cost of the study, but some of this money will be returned on the ebay sale. I would guess that it would require 60 board members to pony up $50. I am not an experienced submitter, and I may have over/underestimated the cost.
This study could be tailored to ask more specifically about a certain denomination or grade, but my design above, though far from ideal, asseses copper, nickel, silver, and gold. A clad quarter could be added, for example to be more thorough. Gold could be left out to reduce the expense of acquiring coins and insuring the submissions.
More important than money or coins, the study would require one or a few volunteers who have experience in cracking out coins and submitting coins to do the legwork. Ideally, someone who is retired, single, a YN (this could be an awesome YN essay) or anyone else for whom the legwork is not a hardship. The volunteers could be overseen by a smaller board to help design the study, deal with unforeseen problems that arise during the study, etc.
Any questions/comments?
Any interest?
Hypotheses: NGC and PCGS are top graders and virtually equivalent in consistency
and CTC and other dealers that advertise in Coin World sell mostly garbabe, problem, overgraded coins.
Design:
1. Collect $50 from each board member sponsor.
2. Collect/purchase four groups of raw coins and one group of slabbed coins. These coins need not be expensive, though it would be useful to include a few gold coins (generic $2.50's and $5's would do nicely). The coins from the advertisers should have verification of purchase from that advertiser (a receipt) and never having been previously sent to a grading service. There would be six coins in each group. Example: one Indian cent, one buffalo nickel, one Barber quarter, one Franklin half, one Morgan, and one Liberty $2.50 or $5.
3. The coins would then be submitted to PCI, SEGS, ICG, ANACS, NGC, and PCGS via the least expensive/economy route. The mint state coins that get graded would then be resent to ANACS, NGC, and PCGS to test the consistency of the established majors.
4. Coins will all be in the AU to "Gem BU" range, where much of the contraversy exists.
5. At the end of the study, the coins that were purchased for the study could be sold on ebay
My estimate is that grading/mailing costs for the study would be around $2500. If we have to purchase coins from the dealers that would add to the cost of the study, but some of this money will be returned on the ebay sale. I would guess that it would require 60 board members to pony up $50. I am not an experienced submitter, and I may have over/underestimated the cost.
This study could be tailored to ask more specifically about a certain denomination or grade, but my design above, though far from ideal, asseses copper, nickel, silver, and gold. A clad quarter could be added, for example to be more thorough. Gold could be left out to reduce the expense of acquiring coins and insuring the submissions.
More important than money or coins, the study would require one or a few volunteers who have experience in cracking out coins and submitting coins to do the legwork. Ideally, someone who is retired, single, a YN (this could be an awesome YN essay) or anyone else for whom the legwork is not a hardship. The volunteers could be overseen by a smaller board to help design the study, deal with unforeseen problems that arise during the study, etc.
Any questions/comments?
Any interest?
0
Comments
coins out of coin world is often asking for trouble. We also already know there are "mistakes" in slabs
from all the services. We should also know that our local dealer probably has no clue. Bottom line, it involves
work..........you have to learn what you are doing the hard way or look for that elusive dealer who will
try and treat you right. That is tough because not all honest dealers have any idea what they are doing.
At least you are trying to get things right and I really like that. Best of luck.
Rusty
Added: I didn't vote as you didn't have a response that fit--mine would be "I do care but I don't think such a study would be of value"
There are subtle points that might be made. A study this small is unlikely to have the statistical power to prove anything, but it might make some interesting points.
What if, for example, SEGS has gotten its act together and is a more rigorous and consistent grading service in this trial. How else we would learn this? None of us would send our coins to SEGS, would we? What if the same coin was sent to PCGS and NGC 5 times each, and was graded 63-bodybag-64-65-62 at PCGS but 63-63-63-64-63 at NGC. It would make me want to do more research before sending a coin to PCGS. We all only know from our own anecdotal observations and hearsay, but no good study has ever put the grading services to the test.
Billboat,
How do we know that only the Big 3 (PCGS, NGC, and ANACS) are worthy of grading our coins. Again, if SEGS suddenly became more consistent and more accurate, would you know? (Would you care?) We all believe SEGS/PCI and others to be inferior because we routinely see problem coins in their holders. And once there, these problem coins are at the end of the line. All of the better coins get cracked out of SEGS holders and end up in PCGS/NGC holders. So we really do not know if SEGS is currently a good or bad grader.
As far as the bad dealers are concerned, if a neutral party could demonstrate in an unbiased controlled study that some of the CW advertisers were "bad dealers", perhaps we could either force them out or force them to improve, for the betterment of the hobby. Seems like it would be worth my $50 to that end.
<< <i>The point eludes me. We already know PCGS is the best service followed by NGC. >>
Put down the Kool-Aid, sir. You've had your limit.
<< <i>As far as the bad dealers are concerned, if a neutral party could demonstrate in an unbiased controlled study that some of the CW advertisers were "bad dealers", perhaps we could either force them out or force them to improve, for the betterment of the hobby. Seems like it would be worth my $50 to that end. >>
One reason why an unbiased controlled study would be valuable is to set a standard that would eliminate the "grading is a matter of opinion" excuse and give collectors some ammunition against bad dealers that would hold up in court. If we can show that there is such a thing as consistently reliable expert grading, then dealers who consistently overgrade or knowingly sell problem coins as "Gem BU" would be vulnerable to action under consumer protection laws -- they would either have to clean up their act or get out of the business.
Anecdotally, this is what we know. Flaminio, as noted above, has sent a single coin to 5 services for grading. I would bet that if he sent the coin around again, the results would be different. It would be useful to know who really is the most consistent grader for a variety of series. This test could be done independently of the dealer assessment.
Frankly, I do not purchase coins from CTC or its peers, nor do I ever plan to do so. From what I read here, they are a blight on our hobby and deserve to be exposed and stopped
<< <i>why just focus on large CW dealers/advertisers (with whom I have NO connection)? I just don't see any surprises in the proposed study--services grade inconsistently and some dealers overgrade. The individual collector still makes his or her own decisions. >>
Why? Because what they are doing is consumer fraud. It's no different from a used car dealer who turns back an odometer or conceals wreck repairs.
An excellent first step in de-mystifying the grading game and bringing some consistency to the hobby. I have always believed that the only way to "fix" the hobby would be through a collector based organization that performed unbiased studies evaluating dealer, auction house, and third party grading company performance. This could easily be performed by creating timely, accurate, measurements on specific performance standards. This organization would need to be similar in structure to Consumer Union (Consumer Reports) where no dealer or TPG could be a member. The problem with our current Hobby organizations is that the Dealers have too much influence. If this type of organization was created and it published a monthly member newsletter of performance results, this hobby would change overnight.
their coins to SEGS for cross, then you will know the market wants that service. Right now, PCGS coins bring the
most money for a reason. The reason is really not important, it is the math. For me it is all a numbers game. I don't
care if a coin is the best or worst for the grade, it still brings the same as all others that are average for the grade.
This grading thing can be simple if you let the numbers guide you. Go with the service that the real experts not
only use, but pay the most money for. A proof 70 cent for $31 or $31,000 is a big difference. Might be a reason?
Rusty
Whatever you choose though I would be interested, if I could host the pictures on my site.
coinpage.com
Robert
<< <i>Frankly, I do not purchase coins from CTC or its peers, nor do I ever plan to do so. From what I read here, they are a blight on our hobby and deserve to be exposed and stopped >>
The key word here is exposed. Let's assume you do your study and the results of CTC, Sims et al are as expected. Those of us who read these boards already know what the results will be, and already avoid these dealers. How are you going to get the word out to the other 99 44/100% of collectors? Do you really think Coin World will publish such a study, when it bashes their main source of income?
Before spending the time and money to undertake such a study, you might want to contact Coin World (or other publication) and get something in writing about them publishing the results.