With all due respect, I don't care for the tone of my response (or is it your response either. Frankly, I was feeling neglected that none of the low pop bashers were going after my comments.
Now, here we go again, I have to agree 100% with Wondercoin (Gosh I hate doing that). Several years ago, when Mitch was selling the $2,000 Lincolns that are now worth $20,000, people probably thought they were snake oil. Now that they are $20,000 coins nobody who talked then confesses up. Instead they are flaming again afresh. If these next sell for $50K are you going to come back and say you were wrong? Or, will you just say the same thing again. Hindsight remains 20/20.
However, here is my main point. What really bothers me is the condecension I perceive on the part of those who don't buy or play in the low pop market. Why do you continue to feel that you need to warn those players. Don't you see, they can buy and sell both of us, and don't care about our opinion. Those people are smart. In my collecting career I have probably bought and sold a dozen low pop high grade, "silly" priced coins. I paid "silly" prices and I sold for silly prices. I have to tell you the honest truth, the people I sold to were a lot smarter, more clever, and more on-the-ball then those who sold them to me. Believe me, the buyers of this stuff do not need or want our protection, advice, or help.
Have your opinions, and buy and sell what you want. But, get in the game, or get off the sidelines where you poke fun at people who play at levels most of us do not even comprehend. It's like the high paid sports players. I hear so much garbage about how they aren't worth their salaries, as if those who do the writing have any clue.
Your answer is merely rehtoircal and not responsive to an acutal situation. One would assume that a collector would work hard to upgrade a coin that was clearly defficient in some manner. Now when we enter the loft realm of 67 and 68 grades that should not be the case. In fact the difference between a 67 and a 68 is likely to be a matter of debate in many cases.
>>
Well to the extent I wouldn't pay a million times as much you are obviously correct. I define a better coin as one which is clearly better. This can be the difference between XF and superb gem or two different superb gems. This estimation is independent of the grade on the holder or even if it's slabbed or not. Some coins are extremely difficult to improve upon whether the improvement is nominal or significant. The value of the better coin to me is largely a function of the amount of effort I've put into finding it.
Wow, what a long thread to read ... a spin on Oscar Wilde's quote is that "Accountants know the price of everything but the value of nothing". Can you imagine this person's Accountant or Financial Analyst asking "you want to buy WHAT and for HOW MUCH ???".
IMHO, if you have the money and the fortitude, you do not need your Accountant, Financial Analyst, or anyone in this thread to tell you what to do, you do it just because you want to and you can. If your fortitude is even higher, you crack it out, go to KFC (not that KFC is the eating establishment of choice for this buyer) eat a bucket of chicken, touch the heck out of the coin and then run it through a novelty cent-elongating machine and keep it as a souvenir just because you want to and you can ...
P.S. You also return the insert so you can get that $0.50 refund and keep the registry coin goobers happy (not to mention David Hall and the other owner of the 1940 MS68 cent).
I have no advice to offer the buyer of the 40 Lincoln. They are obviously smart enough to have $40k in disposable income, so they do something very well. Who knows, maybe they'll post asking my advice.
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
I still think that coins such as this one will drop precipitously, just like the Dutch tulip bulb market did. Millions of the cent were made, and the cent is no doubt priced many multiples of the next lower grade.
<< <i>I still think that coins such as this one will drop precipitously, just like the Dutch tulip bulb market did. Millions of the cent were made, and the cent is no doubt priced many multiples of the next lower grade. >>
I'm very pleased that the modern markets haven't seemed to show the sort of speculative excesses that cause things to crash so far. But what will be the situation in a few years if the market is still growing which does seem quite possible given its still tiny size? While many would never get involved in these coins, most people will at least dabble in things that are hot. When there are large numbers of people chasing the coins and the plas- tic then there will be a huge danger of a tremendous crash.
I can just see the thread now "$220,000 for a 1940 Lincoln cent" and the wailing, gnashing of teeth, and the obligatory "I told you so's".
Oh yes, the crashing of markets, I can still remember common date MS-63 PCGS/NGC 1881-S Morgans selling for $80, but wait, thats not the future, that was the past, I guess people have short memories. LOL
One reason I don't collect high priced more modern coins is because to much of the coins percieved value is tied up in the grading services opionion on the slab. If someone who doesn't really care about that has the money they spend as disposable income thats fine with me. I think it all comes down to perssonel prefference in the end. I would love it if my coins made me rich some day, but thats not why I buy them. There have been coins both modern and classic where hoards have suddenly lowered the price or where higher graded coins have been "made" that lowered the value of the coins in the next grade lower.
It is certainly possible that some of the top pop moderns will remain top of pop coins if nobody saved them, it is also possible that some of them will have new coins made as the values continue to flush out attempts to "make" more examples, the problem with that risk is as previously stated that know one has a crystal ball in their head so know one knows for sure, thats more of a risk then I'd want to take.
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
I will close out my comments in this thread with one more post.
The coin market (ALL of it classic, modern, ancient, medieval) is NOT like the stock markets. There is no organized exchange where there are easily accessible buyers and organizations that support prices in an organized manner. When one gets ready to sell a coin, you can put it up for auction or you can offer it privately, at a show, on a website or in print. Even though auction and private treaty transactions of occurred at a given price level, there are no guarantees that another sale will be possible at that record level.
A few months ago one of the prominent dealers who regularly posts on this board wrote that she received a number of high grade certified modern coins on consignment from a customer. She stated that she had had no takers for the coins at the required prices. There was no indication that the asking prices were out of line with the prices levels that had been reported for the coins. The bottom line she found that turning these coins over at those very high prices was difficult at best.
Some people throw a price tag of $22,000 around here like it’s nothing. It’s not. Many dealers, including yours truly, are as happy as pigs in you know what when they get a customer who is willing to spend $1,000 for a coin. To be worth $22,000, a coin has to very scarce and even more importantly very popular AND very special in the eyes of many collectors.
Quite obviously 1940 cent as a part of the Lincoln cent collection has popularity on its side although most collectors would view it as a “nothing date” in a long series. Conversely the coin, with a mintage of over HALF A BILLION, has no rarity at all. And I’ve not seen any numismatic dissertations about the 1940 cent that would make it like the 1848 CAL $2.50 gold for example. It’s just an ordinary coin that fills a hole.
I am most impressed by a coin, token or medal that has a good story surrounding it AND at the same time enjoys ABSOLUTE RARITY (i.e. very few exist in ALL grades). I am far less impressed by very common coins that happen to be in very high grades of preservation. When you have the combination of very high absolute rarity AND superior condition, those are the items that deserve to attract run-away prices.
Finally it’s been bantered about here that no one knows the future; that it’s unfair to make statements about when might happen to the price of a coin down the line. Well, to succeed in life, one has to make choices and predictions based upon one’s knowledge and experience. If you sit around and, “Well I don’t know what’s going to happen so I’d better not do anything,” that’s a decision in and of its self. When the modern coin promoters put me down because “You don’t know what will happen in the future,” the same argument can be used against them. That logic is circular and of little use.
It’s like the stupid juror in the OJ case who kept hollering, “Where you there? Did you SEE him so it?” Well, no, I wasn’t there, but based on the evidence I think that there was an extremely high probability that he did do it. And if were we were to use your logic, lady, we could kill our enemies and even those who annoy us at will so long as we did it in private.
No, no one has perfect information. If I did have perfect information I would know exactly which coins, stocks, tracts of land and lottery numbers were going to hit, and I’d play them. Instead I have to rely on opinions, information, experience and logic, and that’s why I say that have no faith in 1940 cent @ $22,000 or any other common as dirt coin at that price level and beyond.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
It's a good thing the guys that grade coins are keeping an eye on the pop reports. I would hate to see another coin of similar quality end up in a similar or better holder. Or even worse yet, a handful of similar coins end up in the same kind of holder.
No one seems to care that ONE company controls the supply of these "wonder coins." NGC is a very weak second. As it is with everything else, if the supply of these coins in holders marked MS-6X goes up, the prices will come down BIG TIME because the market for this suff is so thin.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
Anaconda - No one can predict with certainty of course, but, if I was to guess as part of a company "pool" I would say another 40(p) in MS68RD would be made within the next 6 months! Why? Because that particular coin is not all that difficult from my experience and there have been wonderful raw coins of that date that have come to market in the past 12 months.
I support and urge the concept of open-mindedness when it comes to these types of MS coins because my personal research has shown me how rare some of the coins are and just how common many others are as well)(with all due respect, Bill didn't even read close enough past discussions and in that last post of his compared a pile of mostly generic modern PROOF coins which were "unsaleable' and I had previously described MYSELF as essentially "Chuckie-Cheese party bag coins" to try to make his point) - just like Cladking, who to my knowledge has NEVER sold modern coin but is attacked here! I never said buying the 40(p) at $22k made any sense to me whatsoever from the standpoint of what I would do with $22k if I personally had it to spend. Indeed, the ironic thing here is if I had $22k today (as I have said many times before over the past year) I would personally buy a couple more 19th century scarce (and, yes, relatively unpopular) pattern nickels for my personal collection (now, there's a great plug for the modern market - hugh). Not directing this at anyone in particular - People should direct their comments more to gaining knowledge of the particular coin discussion (e.g. why exactly that collector wanted the coin, anything very special about that date in that grade, anything interesting about the quality of that coin in particular, etc.) rather than casting aspertions on anyone trying to assist with explaining why it is understandable that a coin like that could garner that sort of bid
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>explaining why it is understandable that a coin like that could garner that sort of bid >>
Well, I have read through this thread, and the related thread concerning the coin, and I have yet to see a single explanation of why this particular coin is worth 110X the price of a "generic" 67rd. A number of posters have talked about how its the only one at that grade and how much better it must be to garner that grade since no others have, but what I would like to see is an explanation by someone who has made a side by side comparison of the coin to a 67 explaining just what is so much better about this coin that it warrants a premium of this magnitude. In other words, "look how much more luster it has, look at how much greater strike detail is, etc. And if that explanation is given, would it be safe to conclude, as at least one poster in the related thread has suggested, that there is a very significant gap between the criteria for a 67 and a 68 in general.
Peohaps the buyer wants the coin, perhaps the buyer wants the finest known [as of now] plastic 68 for his/her rankings in the registry.
I am vary curious about that, so I'm going to keep checking the registry to see if that date shows up in 68 red, if it does show up in someones registry set, I think we'll have our answer as to the owners motive for the 22 K price tag.
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
Les: The coin will not show up in a set - as many have pointed out here before, the strongest buyers often do not care about "Registry" at all. Indeed, the coin has already "shown up here" - Shylock already met with its owner or its owner's agent I suppose and pictured it and displayed it last week on the Registry board. Again, just furthering my suggestion that we should worry less why some folks would spend $22k on a common date Lincoln cent and spend more time improving our understanding of certain series of coins and specific dates/grades within the series
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
It was worth 110x more because that's what the best buyer was willing to pay, and the best seller was willing to sell at. There is no other reason, so stop trying to find one. What did the best buyer see in it? I don't know. Unless that person comes on the Board and tells us, none of us will know either.
Was it a good purchase? Which is to say will it's price performance going forward exceed that of similar coins. In my opinion no. Otherwise, I would have been bidding for this or similar coins. In the buyer's opinion? Probably, he bought it. In the seller's opinion? Probably not or he would not have sold it. Who will be right? We will just have to wait and see. However, from my experience, these low pop buyers are very smart. They see things others don't, and are willing to take risks that scare lessers. Not sure I would office pool bet against them. One thing is certain: low pop buyers have certainly done well over the last year or two.
The "worth" of anything is what someone is willing to pay. That doesn't mean YOU are willing to pay it but SOMEONE else is. "Worth" is also time dependent. A year from now this particular coin could be "worth" $150 for all we know. As long as the sale was FREE and OPEN (now shilling or whatever) the coin was "worth" $22,000 at the time of sale. Enron was "worth" something 3 years ago and it was a hellava lot more than it's "worth" today.
Now, you all might want to debate whether it makes any sense but you don't have to. It isn't a coin many are willing to buy so why do you care? In fact, the vast majority of people on this board who are debating this probably don't have the wherewithall to purchase that Cent so having a debate here is moot at best.
You also might debate whether the price makes sense. Does paying 3X for a Mercedes Benz than a Toyota "make sense"? No, but the "worth" or "market value" of the Benz is 3X, whether WE think so or not.
Now, what would I do? In my present state of finance AND if I cared about Lincoln Cents (which I don't) I would simply search for a nice 67 or 66 and pay $100 for it or whatever. But that's just me.
Wondercoin, I can't help it !!!! Yes, I admit I'm curious as hell why someone would pay that kind of money for a coin like that. I admit, I don't know the persons reasons but just like the people who drive by an accident and slow down to look, it's human nature to want to know why and yes even if it's none of my buisiness, I want to know why.
Look, as far as I know, these are the only types of rare coins; [I am always curious as to what motivates any of us to buy any of them, after all, any of us that like to pay over face value or a coin might be considered nuts by people that don't.]
1. A truely rare coin, one that either that has few that were minted or few that survive.
2. A coin that is at least scarce by todays standards that may not be rare as a date, but is a condition rarity in cerain grades of a scarce coin. This catogory is my favorite because I could never afford thed true rare coins in our hobby like the 33 saint or a 13 liberty nickle.
3. A pure condtion rarity, that is only rare in the top condition, such as a 40 p lincoln in m.s. 68 red or a 63 lincoln prof in 70 dcam.
4. rare presentation pieces that were struck with few to begin wth and were never intended for circulation such as many patten pieces.
5. Some mint errors and some varities, I say some, because some are more readily avaialable then others.
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
One more thing. I have 100% changed my view on the intelligence of low pop, high priced, buyers over the last two years. I used to think these people were out of their minds. However, the recent performance of this group has convinced me that they have some real smarts. Just because most of us do not see the value, doesn't mean it isn't there. In fact, the contrarians often make the money.
The guy who bought the coin might eventually sell it and double his money (any maybe do better than that!). On the other hand, he might lose most of what he paid, if he sold. But eventually the market for these kinds of coins will drop, and someone will be left holding the bag.
Would the coin grade MS68RED again if cracked out? And is there THAT much dufference between MS67RED and MS68RED?
<< <i>One reason I don't collect high priced more modern coins is because to much of the coins percieved value is tied up in the grading services opionion on the slab. If someone who doesn't really care about that has the money they spend as disposable income thats fine with me. I think it all comes down to perssonel prefference in the end. I would love it if my coins made me rich some day, but thats not why I buy them. >>
People are collecting modern coins. This is the reason that the prices have been on the upswing. This is the only reason. They were never really collected before and now they are. People are going back and adding some of the older coins like the '40 cent to their collections. The grading services can NOT make a high grade coin. If they did then collectors would simply ignore their opinions and stop sending in coins.
<< <i> There have been coins both modern and classic where hoards have suddenly lowered the price or where higher graded coins have been "made" that lowered the value of the coins in the next grade lower. >>
Hordes are mostly a phenomena of classics. People saved the coins because they contained precious metals. They are brought up from the ocean bottom because they were sunk while moving large amounts of money, etc, etc. People don't save moderns and the government rotates their coin stocks, large sums of money are invariably trans- ferred by computer. If there were clad on the ocean bottom it would soon dissolve.
There are no hordes of high grade moderns. I've watched this market long enough that it is inconcievable to me that any substantial horde could exist. There are no doubt some small hordes but there are none which will ever cause a substantial market move. These coins are hard to find and one couldn't even look a little without leaving signs of the effort.
<< <i> It is certainly possible that some of the top pop moderns will remain top of pop coins if nobody saved them, it is also possible that some of them will have new coins made as the values continue to flush out attempts to "make" more examples, the problem with that risk is as previously stated that know one has a crystal ball in their head so know one knows for sure, thats more of a risk then I'd want to take.
Les >>
There are beyond a doubt still many moderns to be slabbed in high grade. Even more will be slabbed in the mid grades. The pops of PCGS Barbers were all zero in 1985. Does that mean that those who collected them were doing something wrong or potentially disasterous, or that they couldn't have fun with them in 1985?
We have had many interesting disscusions on this subject over the last few months.
I hope you can tell from the things I have said that I have nothing against modern coins or the people that collect them.
Several of your responces to my points I do disagree with strongly however.
1. High grade moderns aren't "made", really ? To the extent that the coin inside the slab is the same inside our outside of the slab I would agree with [no one makes the coin except the mint or they go to the slammer!!!] but how many stories have we heard about people breaking coins out of slabs to get a different result "the crackout game" it might be a good time to look for the best pq 40 cents in 67 red that can be found and C-R-A-C-K them out. Of course if people do that it will create more money for the grading services.... maybe I shouldn't go their.
2. There are no major hoards of modern coins ???
I will not claim to know for sure, but as you pointed out modern collecting is mostly a recent thing, so since slabbing costs some real money many moderns have not been slabbed and the recent prices being paid for some of the best pieces might bring out more to be slabbed that have been sitting in albums or 2 x 2's or rolls untill now. I don't think the only hoarded coins are precious metal classics sitting in the bottom of sunken ships.
By the way, I have a really neat looking pcgs graded 1892 barber quarter in 65, I bought it 3 years ago and the pops have continued to go up on this piece, it is now more common in 65 then the 16 d and it has lost 300 in value in the last three years, 13 years ago that coin was worth over 5000 dollars and now if I wanted to sell it maybe I could get 900 to 1000 in an auction from a private collector who likes pq commen dates [but it's still fun].
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
things that go up in price quickly, tend to drop just as quickly, especially when there is a lot of "hype." Look at tech stocks 2 or 3 years ago, or the 1950D nickel in the late 60's-early 70's, or MS65/PRF65 "classic" coins in 1989-90. And these high-priced modern coins are not rare when the entire mintage of the coin is considered, and the coin is selling at 110X the next lower grade. If collectors decide that one point isn't worth 110X, then prices will drop.
So I would say it is likely (but not a certainty) that modern supergrade coins will drop quite a bit soon.
I really need to thank Bill Jones for his eloquent, logical, and powerful thoughts concerning the hyping of manufactured modern "rarities". It is my belief that these modern ultragrade rarities are being pushed on a poorly informed collector base for the most part, and I see nothing good coming of it, except that several of the masters of hype will have their pockets lined with lots of cash. The end users, collectors, will, as usual, get burned big time, and will leave this wonderful hobby in droves when they find out that their treasures bring a fraction of their cost when they try to sell.
TomT-1794
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
BillJones is on my short list of members here that I really admire and respect their opinions, and read every thoughful post they put out. Often I don't have to bother to reply because he has said it so well.
things that go up in price quickly, tend to drop just as quickly, especially when there is a lot of "hype." Look at tech stocks 2 or 3 years ago, or the 1950D nickel in the late 60's-early 70's, or MS65/PRF65 "classic" coins in 1989-90. And these high-priced modern coins are not rare when the entire mintage of the coin is considered, and the coin is selling at 110X the next lower grade. If collectors decide that one point isn't worth 110X, then prices will drop.
. >>
All these statements are completely true and I'd be the last to say that this time it's different except for a few things. You are looking at only some of the facts and one could disagree with some of your "facts". While things which go up quickly certainly tend to drop even faster this statement usually applies to things which have always been seen as a value and then sud- denly for no really good reason just take off. Tech stocks were valuable long before they soared thirty fold. Tulip bulbs had real value before some went up a hundred fold. Choice and gem classic coins had a lot of value in the mid '80's before speculative fever pushed them through the roof.
In the 1950's there was a little start up company called Xerox. It had no particular value be- cause they had no particular market. But if you bought some of the stock then your fortune multiplied a thousand fold. Even after many bad years for the stock it has more than doubled yet again. Everything that has real value was at one time virtually worthless. The Panama Canal bankrupted more than one company but those who believed in it came out on top. Modern coins were essentially worthless in 1995. Mint sets sold for less than face value and proof sets were only a little better. Most modern commems were available for bullion value or a little more. Modern rarities were not for sale at any price but if one were autioned it would be unlikely to bring more than a few hundred dollars. Even today such coins bring a tiny fraction of what they would bring if they were old coins. Does anyone believe that coin prices are or should be depen- dent on age. Of course not, it is strictly supply and demand which determine rare coin prices. So why are modern coins priced so much lower than the classics? There is only one possible an- swer and that is that the demand for them is a tiny fraction of the demand for the classics. Which, of course, begs the question, Where is this hype to which people keep referring? I see a huge a- mount of modern bashing everywhere but don't ever see ANYONE saying buy these coins because they can only go up in price. I don't see these coins being pushed anywhere. For the main part dealers don't stock them or much like them. Most dealers who do know much about them are buy- ing what they can and selling those which can be more easily replaced. Most of the handfull of "ser- ious" collectors are just trying to have fun with the coins and many of the most in demand coins are going to the registry participants.
So where is this hype? How about some links or something. I love moderns and would really enjoy anything about them and this applies to hype too. Show me the hype.
Sure the mint is spending millions of dollars every year trying to interest people in collecting coins from circulation, the ANA is also trying to recruit a new generation of collectors but nobody is of- fering instant riches to whoever will plunk down a few dollars for the latest thing to come down the pike. The sellers sometimes suggest that the coins are fun or rare but is this hype. I've never seen someone offer an 1804 dollar and suggest that the market for NCLT issues is saturated. Are modern sellers supposed to bash their coins so as not to offend classic people?
You imply that high grade regular issue moderns are not rare when the entire mintage is considered. So what? Most modern coins have either already been destroyed or are kicking around in circulation and have been for a couple generations now. Get out a glass and take a look at a clad coin from the 1960's. Do it. This is what regular issue coins look like now. Sure none of the regular issues are rare in uncirculated condition (many are probably far scarcer than you imagine), but look at one of these unc coins the next time you get a chance. The odds are overwhelming that what you'll see is poorly struck and heavily marked. What would you expect people to collect if they like moderns? Classics are great coins but if you need a 1978 Ike then an 1878 Morgan is NOT interchangeable.
So go out and find an attractive '78 Ike and then tell me how common the moderns are.
There are people out there looking and they are finding some great coins. But as I've warned re- peatedly, time is fleeting. These coins are not going to be available raw indefinitely. The day will come that if you want these coins you'll have to buy them slabbed and then the crackout game will begin for the moderns too.
I came back from an extended weekend which included a visit to the paper money show in Strasburg, PA to find my mailbox full of email references to this post. It was a bit tedious, but fun to read the comments, most of which were thoughtful and cogent, and most of all highly opinionated! However ...
Have you ever been involved in a situation which was then reported in the newspaper, only to find several misstatements of fact as well implications that were simply dead wrong? In those cases, you realize this because you were there and know what is correct!
As THE buyer of the 1940 Lincoln, I can tell you that much of the "fogginess" you find in many news reports also applies to the discussion in this thread. For example, ...
The quoted price, despite being mentioned several hundred times, is incorrect – overstated not understated; the buy-sell situation is completely misdescribed; and the motivations attributed to the buyer (me) are wrong - you know NOT whether I bought it for purposes of an interesting trade possibility, or for resale (a profit was very easy), simply as a token of an important year in one’s life, or perhaps to add to a collection.
I can guarantee that the coin was not purchased as an investment. I myself do not believe in that, though a few people seem to do well at it. As an aside, I am always amazed at the amount of focus on money by coin collectors, and whether their coins will go up or down in value; collectors of pez dispensors and many other collectibles have a different view.
I can further guarantee it was not bought for purposes of adding it to my Lincoln registry set because at this time I have none. Believe it or not, I like Stewart Blay – why would I want to see him in tears, having a temper tantrum – we all know that this happens whenever he sees that someone else has even one coin that he wants, let alone a dozen or so.
Stewart is a fascinating guy, one of the shrewdest collectors around and a marketer extraordinary. In Stewart, I have finally found someone who can nt only make chicken salad out of chicken poop, but make some people believe it smells good. He, of course, began this post to promote Lincolns, most importantly his own; particularly his 1919 Lincoln in ms69 which he would like to think of as the first $100K Lincoln. Sorry, Stewart you have already been beaten on that one – you just don’t know it!
A separate thread on the very unique 1919 Lincoln in ms69 would certainly provoke some interesting discussion with respect to quality and value. Is it, as Stewart believes, a $100K coin?
I appreciate much of the commentary in this thread, and I’m reluctant to single out any one person for praise, least you think I do not appreciate comments others made. But, I particularly respect Bill Jones and his admonitions about market risk which I have seen repeated on the message board several times. He might choose his words a little less provocatively, but he and others serve a valuable function in the hobby as "voices in the wilderness." And as a byproduct perhaps they keep prices down at least a little, which is great for buyers!
Not that I feel obligated to calm Bill or anyone else, but I nonetheless assure all who are nervous about a new collector being taken on the 1940 Lincoln that I have been collecting a variety of collectibles for many years, and am hardly a novice. I think I know risk better than most, having taught statistical assessment of risk at the graduate level for many years, and doing quite a bit of pioneering research on it as well. As far as money goes, be assured I am playing with "the house’s money"” and not house money, a point I prefer not to elaborate on that at this time.
In summary, I don’t think anyone is in a better position than me to know my motivations, my attitude towards risk taking and, last but not least, my financial ability to acquire a coin here and there for whatever purpose I want. Then there is also my assessment of the quality of the coin!!!
I am surprised not more attention has been given to discussion of quality. Even with the great pictures that Paul Houck (shylock) posted, believe me that they do not do justice to this coin. I have several very high quality Lincolns, but this is one of the best; second only perhaps to one of my 1934 Lincolns in ms68. Despite my opinion, I have been told by very respected Lincoln experts that the 1940 Lincoln is perhaps the best "wheatie" of any year that they have ever seen. One comment was: "it is entirely possible that one or more 68s will be made for 1940; I doubt very much they can be of the same quality as this one." My assessment of the extraordinary quality of this coin may be wrong, but I am certainly willing to live with it.
In general, I hope you all have fun posting whatever you like whenever you like it, but please be skeptical about what you read, particularly when it involves a reported rumor accompanied by little or no factual information.
I agree well said. If your not "betting the house" and you bought the coin because you like it, I don't think anyone here has a problem with whatever you paid for it !
I still don't feel that all high grade modern buyers go into it with the same intent as you did. I also feel that people who pay what ever they have to, to get a coin [sometimes at record shattering prices] do affect what the rest of us have to pay that can't afford to do that.
Enjoy your coin.
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
As an aside, I am always amazed at the amount of focus on money by coin collectors, and whether their coins will go up or down in value; collectors of pez dispensors and many other collectibles have a different view.
Yea, verily.
I wonder what responses I'd get if I were to pay $15,000 for the finest known official silver centennial medal (was it HK20?)?
<< <i>As an aside, I am always amazed at the amount of focus on money by coin collectors, and whether their coins will go up or down in value; collectors of pez dispensors and many other collectibles have a different view.
Yea, verily.
I wonder what responses I'd get if I were to pay $15,000 for the finest known official silver centennial medal (was it HK20?)? >>
HK-20 is not particularly rare according to Julian. While my experience with this one is limited most of the mint medals from this era tend to be well made but less well preserved. Such a price would certainly get some attention since such items are rarely collected by grade. My guess would be that there is very little difference between most of the best third of these extant. This would in no way apply to 1940 Lincolns. It wouldn't even apply to gem unc 1940 Lincolns.
I bet there are fewer centennial medals in MS-68 than 1940 Lincoln cents in MS-68! Almost every one of the silver medals I've seen has had polished or cleaned centers (only the original holders saved the edges from cleaning).
Now that the buyer has actually made himself known with that well-crafted post... it appears that despite all the warnings, a guy who could afford to drop $22K (or whatever) on a Lincoln is actually functionally literate, capable of making his own risk/reward buying decisions! Who would have thought!
And all along I thought successful wealthy people got that way by being idiots. Gee.
Looks like a nice coin, too. But smack that slab on the corner for a while, willya? A five-figure coin shouldn't be sitting in there crooked.
1) I have brought you out of the closet and you have spoken(eloquently at that)
2) I have made your 1940 Lincoln cent famous
Sorry Gerry,Ido not want to think of my 1919 Lincoln cent as the first $100,000 Lincoln.I do know of the first reported sale of a Lincoln cent for more than $100,000.Like I told you I know ALOT more than you think.I have been collecting Lincolns for longer than yourself.
Perhaps when you want to have a "Showdown" 1909 -1934 Lincoln cents WE can escalate the popularity of Lincoln cents even further
p.s. The only three Lincoln cents that I wish to have are not in your collection.However i did want to own your 30D and 31 D
A 1940 PCGS MS67RD Lincoln just went for $120.50 on ebay. To me the enormous premium paid here for a one point jump SEEMS unrealistic especially with the current vageries in the PCGS copper grading results.
Thats a DHRC Ebay coin so you know its in the low end of the 67 range and if you are looking at it from a point difference it may seem to be a large jump but the coin may be light years better in 68. PCGS just doe not hand that grade out.
This statement may be totally untrue.I know the man that sent in (made)the 1940 cents.He told me that he made almost 20 ms 67's from the same roll.All were very attractively toned.I can tell you that DHRC sells some WONDERFUL coins.The collestor that owns the 1940 in 68 also buys many coins from DHRC.DHRC pays quicker and does not chisel in order to obtain the best coins.
"Thats a DHRC Ebay coin so you know its in the low end of the 67 range and if you are looking at it from a point difference it may seem to be a large jump but the coin may be light years better in 68."
That statement is pure hyperbole! The differences between those 67's and this 68 are miniscule by definition of what constitutes the grades. The thousands of dollars over the '67 price paid for this coin is for one thing only, the number on the slab because the visible differences between the coins CANNOT be that dramatic if we're discussing accurately graded 67's versus this 68.
So lets call it what it is, a huge price paid for the number on the slab and very minute difference on the coin.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
That statement is pure hyperbole! The differences between those 67's and this 68 are miniscule by definition of what constitutes the grades. The thousands of dollars over the '67 price paid for this coin is for one thing only, the number on the slab because the visible differences between the coins CANNOT be that dramatic if we're discussing accurately graded 67's versus this 68.
So lets call it what it is, a huge price paid for the number on the slab and very minute difference on the coin. >>
A one point grade jump is the minimum difference in grade which is defined. Smaller differences can certainly be detectable and larger ones can be invisable to the indiv- idual. Many people like all upgrades especially when it's to the best.
There was a picture posted. Even in a picture this coin stands out.
The buyer's post on the previous page is a must read.
<< <i>the visible differences between the coins CANNOT be that dramatic if we're discussing accurately graded 67's versus this 68. >>
Still true even if comparing low-end 67s to high-end 68s.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
Animals and people see what they need to see or are trained to see. An eagle can see a mouse from hundreds of feet in the air. A person who has sought out the best possible coins will see a difference between almost any two coins even if the superior example is in the holder with the lower grade.
Many times grade is a judgement call rather than a scaling issue, but that's not what we're talking about here.
A friend introduced me to red wine about 10 years ago. Over the years, my palate has progressed to the point where I can easily tell the difference between two bottles of different price. The local wine manager jokes with me because he can't - but he knows that it's because he doesn't drink the same stuff. It takes exposure to high grade coins to learn the sometimes subtle differences between them, but once you do it's rather obvious.
Also, I have in the past paid much greater sums for the difference in grade for a relatively common coin. The willingness to do so helped me build what I consider to be a great set. BUT - at the time I was only interested in one series. Now that I'm building other sets, I look back on a couple of my purchases and question the expenditure for one grade. Case in point was the 1877-S trade dollar, where I upgraded the Eliasberg MS66 to the pop 1 MS67 at a net cost of around $50,000. The MS66 was solid, the MS67 is high end, but faced with wanting to add to my seated dollar set I think I'd pass if I had to do it all over again. It's simply too much value tied up in a common date conditionally rare coin. That value might be better utilized elsewhere AT THIS TIME.
So - straight from the horse's mouth - been there, done that, not sure if I'd do it again on a common date. But the differences are real and the money is relative to the opportunity cost.
Do you know that you could build a complete set of Lincolns cents (without die varieties) in 64 RED for about the same amount of money that it would take to upgrade a 1940 cent for 67 RED to 68 RED?
It would require a lot of work, of course.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
How many posters to this thread are serious Lincoln collectors? I'm just curious.
I have bought and sold a few Lincolns over the last four years and have had the chance to spend time studying many others that I cannot currently afford. I would like to think that I have developed a decent eye for this series over that time. From my perspective there are very substantial differences between all of the following levels: Low end MS67RD; Solid MS67RD, PQ MS67RD, PQ+ MS67RD but with no chance of ever being legitimately graded MS68RD, PQ+ MS67RD shot MS68RD, and true MS68RD. As much as I would love to have this eye for other series of coins I understand the enormous investment of time that has allowed my appreciation for Lincolns to grow...and I also understand how rare it is for someone of my currently limited financial means to actually be exposed to enough material of this quality to be able to grow numismatically in this area. I am by no means alone in my study of true high quality coins in this series; in fact I know quite a few individuals whose abilities expose me as still being a neophyte. I find it easy to believe that many serious collectors do not see the value that a select few see; this is true of most any series.
I think that the pricing structure of Lincolns is a benefit. Slightly lower quality coins and common later dates afford an easy entry point for newer collectors; an inequity between an albeit healthy supply and a strong and growing demand offers strong support of price levels at this time; many of the great collectors understand the value in teaching others about the finer points of the series...and this list could go on and on. When the day comes that I have the financial means to pursue coins like the 1940 MS68RD in question I will do so with a vengance...and there are many other like-minded collectors out there.
Those of you who do not agree with me...please take the time to at least consider that there is a facinatingly complex body of information that you do not possess which created this pricing level. Take some time and some money and have fun trying to build an eye-popping MS66RD+ short set...open your minds to a serious attempt to understand that there are reasons supporting the price of this coin other than market hype, "snake-oil" dealers and uninformed collectors. You have nothing to lose. Once you have spent some serious time and effort furthering your education about high grade Lincolns I would love to discuss this transaction in more depth without either side resorting to the same tired old generalized statements regarding the mechanisms governing pricing concerns in the overall rare coin market.
RELLA
Do not fall into the error of the artisan who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft while in fact he has had only one year of experience... twenty times.
Most collectors like variety, and they don't want to have too much money tied up in one thing. If you they do spend a lot one item, usually it is very rare or unsual piece, which has something more going for it than just great preservation. At least that has been my approach....
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
Comments
With all due respect, I don't care for the tone of my response (or is it your response
Now, here we go again, I have to agree 100% with Wondercoin (Gosh I hate doing that
However, here is my main point. What really bothers me is the condecension I perceive on the part of those who don't buy or play in the low pop market. Why do you continue to feel that you need to warn those players. Don't you see, they can buy and sell both of us, and don't care about our opinion. Those people are smart. In my collecting career I have probably bought and sold a dozen low pop high grade, "silly" priced coins. I paid "silly" prices and I sold for silly prices. I have to tell you the honest truth, the people I sold to were a lot smarter, more clever, and more on-the-ball then those who sold them to me. Believe me, the buyers of this stuff do not need or want our protection, advice, or help.
Have your opinions, and buy and sell what you want. But, get in the game, or get off the sidelines where you poke fun at people who play at levels most of us do not even comprehend. It's like the high paid sports players. I hear so much garbage about how they aren't worth their salaries, as if those who do the writing have any clue.
Greg
<< <i>
Your answer is merely rehtoircal and not responsive to an acutal situation. One would assume that a collector would work hard to upgrade a coin that was clearly defficient in some manner. Now when we enter the loft realm of 67 and 68 grades that should not be the case. In fact the difference between a 67 and a 68 is likely to be a matter of debate in many cases.
>>
Well to the extent I wouldn't pay a million times as much you are obviously correct.
I define a better coin as one which is clearly better. This can be the difference between
XF and superb gem or two different superb gems. This estimation is independent of the
grade on the holder or even if it's slabbed or not. Some coins are extremely difficult to
improve upon whether the improvement is nominal or significant. The value of the better
coin to me is largely a function of the amount of effort I've put into finding it.
IMHO, if you have the money and the fortitude, you do not need your Accountant, Financial Analyst, or anyone in this thread to tell you what to do, you do it just because you want to and you can. If your fortitude is even higher, you crack it out, go to KFC (not that KFC is the eating establishment of choice for this buyer) eat a bucket of chicken, touch the heck out of the coin and then run it through a novelty cent-elongating machine and keep it as a souvenir just because you want to and you can ...
P.S. You also return the insert so you can get that $0.50 refund and keep the registry coin goobers happy (not to mention David Hall and the other owner of the 1940 MS68 cent).
I love Ike dollars and all other dollar series !!!
I also love Major Circulation Strike Type Sets, clad Washingtons ('65 to '98) and key date coins !!!!!
If ignorance is bliss, shouldn't we have more happy people ??
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>I still think that coins such as this one will drop precipitously, just like the Dutch tulip bulb market did. Millions of the cent were made, and the cent is no doubt priced many multiples of the next lower grade. >>
I'm very pleased that the modern markets haven't seemed to show the
sort of speculative excesses that cause things to crash so far. But what
will be the situation in a few years if the market is still growing which does
seem quite possible given its still tiny size? While many would never get
involved in these coins, most people will at least dabble in things that are
hot. When there are large numbers of people chasing the coins and the plas-
tic then there will be a huge danger of a tremendous crash.
I can just see the thread now "$220,000 for a 1940 Lincoln cent" and the
wailing, gnashing of teeth, and the obligatory "I told you so's".
LOL
It is certainly possible that some of the top pop moderns will remain top of pop coins if nobody saved them, it is also possible that some of them will have new coins made as the values continue to flush out attempts to "make" more examples, the problem with that risk is as previously stated that know one has a crystal ball in their head so know one knows for sure, thats more of a risk then I'd want to take.
Les
The coin market (ALL of it classic, modern, ancient, medieval) is NOT like the stock markets. There is no organized exchange where there are easily accessible buyers and organizations that support prices in an organized manner. When one gets ready to sell a coin, you can put it up for auction or you can offer it privately, at a show, on a website or in print. Even though auction and private treaty transactions of occurred at a given price level, there are no guarantees that another sale will be possible at that record level.
A few months ago one of the prominent dealers who regularly posts on this board wrote that she received a number of high grade certified modern coins on consignment from a customer. She stated that she had had no takers for the coins at the required prices. There was no indication that the asking prices were out of line with the prices levels that had been reported for the coins. The bottom line she found that turning these coins over at those very high prices was difficult at best.
Some people throw a price tag of $22,000 around here like it’s nothing. It’s not. Many dealers, including yours truly, are as happy as pigs in you know what when they get a customer who is willing to spend $1,000 for a coin. To be worth $22,000, a coin has to very scarce and even more importantly very popular AND very special in the eyes of many collectors.
Quite obviously 1940 cent as a part of the Lincoln cent collection has popularity on its side although most collectors would view it as a “nothing date” in a long series. Conversely the coin, with a mintage of over HALF A BILLION, has no rarity at all. And I’ve not seen any numismatic dissertations about the 1940 cent that would make it like the 1848 CAL $2.50 gold for example. It’s just an ordinary coin that fills a hole.
I am most impressed by a coin, token or medal that has a good story surrounding it AND at the same time enjoys ABSOLUTE RARITY (i.e. very few exist in ALL grades). I am far less impressed by very common coins that happen to be in very high grades of preservation. When you have the combination of very high absolute rarity AND superior condition, those are the items that deserve to attract run-away prices.
Finally it’s been bantered about here that no one knows the future; that it’s unfair to make statements about when might happen to the price of a coin down the line. Well, to succeed in life, one has to make choices and predictions based upon one’s knowledge and experience. If you sit around and, “Well I don’t know what’s going to happen so I’d better not do anything,” that’s a decision in and of its self. When the modern coin promoters put me down because “You don’t know what will happen in the future,” the same argument can be used against them. That logic is circular and of little use.
It’s like the stupid juror in the OJ case who kept hollering, “Where you there? Did you SEE him so it?” Well, no, I wasn’t there, but based on the evidence I think that there was an extremely high probability that he did do it. And if were we were to use your logic, lady, we could kill our enemies and even those who annoy us at will so long as we did it in private.
No, no one has perfect information. If I did have perfect information I would know exactly which coins, stocks, tracts of land and lottery numbers were going to hit, and I’d play them. Instead I have to rely on opinions, information, experience and logic, and that’s why I say that have no faith in 1940 cent @ $22,000 or any other common as dirt coin at that price level and beyond.
It's a good thing the guys that grade coins are keeping an eye on the pop reports. I would hate to see another coin of similar quality end up in a similar or better holder. Or even worse yet, a handful of similar coins end up in the same kind of holder.
I wonder what the chances are of that?
No one seems to care that ONE company controls the supply of these "wonder coins." NGC is a very weak second. As it is with everything else, if the supply of these coins in holders marked MS-6X goes up, the prices will come down BIG TIME
Anaconda - No one can predict with certainty of course, but, if I was to guess as part of a company "pool" I would say another 40(p) in MS68RD would be made within the next 6 months! Why? Because that particular coin is not all that difficult from my experience and there have been wonderful raw coins of that date that have come to market in the past 12 months.
I support and urge the concept of open-mindedness when it comes to these types of MS coins because my personal research has shown me how rare some of the coins are and just how common many others are as well)(with all due respect, Bill didn't even read close enough past discussions and in that last post of his compared a pile of mostly generic modern PROOF coins which were "unsaleable' and I had previously described MYSELF as essentially "Chuckie-Cheese party bag coins" to try to make his point) - just like Cladking, who to my knowledge has NEVER sold modern coin but is attacked here! I never said buying the 40(p) at $22k made any sense to me whatsoever from the standpoint of what I would do with $22k if I personally had it to spend. Indeed, the ironic thing here is if I had $22k today (as I have said many times before over the past year) I would personally buy a couple more 19th century scarce (and, yes, relatively unpopular) pattern nickels for my personal collection (now, there's a great plug for the modern market - hugh). Not directing this at anyone in particular - People should direct their comments more to gaining knowledge of the particular coin discussion (e.g. why exactly that collector wanted the coin, anything very special about that date in that grade, anything interesting about the quality of that coin in particular, etc.) rather than casting aspertions on anyone trying to assist with explaining why it is understandable that a coin like that could garner that sort of bid
Wondercoin
<< <i>explaining why it is understandable that a coin like that could garner that sort of bid >>
Well, I have read through this thread, and the related thread concerning the coin, and I have yet to see a single explanation of why this particular coin is worth 110X the price of a "generic" 67rd. A number of posters have talked about how its the only one at that grade and how much better it must be to garner that grade since no others have, but what I would like to see is an explanation by someone who has made a side by side comparison of the coin to a 67 explaining just what is so much better about this coin that it warrants a premium of this magnitude. In other words, "look how much more luster it has, look at how much greater strike detail is, etc. And if that explanation is given, would it be safe to conclude, as at least one poster in the related thread has suggested, that there is a very significant gap between the criteria for a 67 and a 68 in general.
CG
I am vary curious about that, so I'm going to keep checking the registry to see if that date shows up in 68 red, if it does show up in someones registry set, I think we'll have our answer as to the owners motive for the 22 K price tag.
Les
Wondercoin
It was worth 110x more because that's what the best buyer was willing to pay, and the best seller was willing to sell at. There is no other reason, so stop trying to find one. What did the best buyer see in it? I don't know. Unless that person comes on the Board and tells us, none of us will know either.
Was it a good purchase? Which is to say will it's price performance going forward exceed that of similar coins. In my opinion no. Otherwise, I would have been bidding for this or similar coins. In the buyer's opinion? Probably, he bought it. In the seller's opinion? Probably not or he would not have sold it. Who will be right? We will just have to wait and see. However, from my experience, these low pop buyers are very smart. They see things others don't, and are willing to take risks that scare lessers. Not sure I would office pool bet against them. One thing is certain: low pop buyers have certainly done well over the last year or two.
Greg
Now, you all might want to debate whether it makes any sense but you don't have to. It isn't a coin many are willing to buy so why do you care? In fact, the vast majority of people on this board who are debating this probably don't have the wherewithall to purchase that Cent so having a debate here is moot at best.
You also might debate whether the price makes sense. Does paying 3X for a Mercedes Benz than a Toyota "make sense"? No, but the "worth" or "market value" of the Benz is 3X, whether WE think so or not.
Now, what would I do? In my present state of finance AND if I cared about Lincoln Cents (which I don't) I would simply search for a nice 67 or 66 and pay $100 for it or whatever. But that's just me.
jom
Look, as far as I know, these are the only types of rare coins; [I am always curious as to what motivates any of us to buy any of them, after all, any of us that like to pay over face value or a coin might be considered nuts by people that don't.]
1. A truely rare coin, one that either that has few that were minted or few that survive.
2. A coin that is at least scarce by todays standards that may not be rare as a date, but is a condition rarity in cerain grades of a scarce coin. This catogory is my favorite because I could never afford thed true rare coins in our hobby like the 33 saint or a 13 liberty nickle.
3. A pure condtion rarity, that is only rare in the top condition, such as a 40 p lincoln in m.s. 68 red or a 63 lincoln prof in 70 dcam.
4. rare presentation pieces that were struck with few to begin wth and were never intended for circulation such as many patten pieces.
5. Some mint errors and some varities, I say some, because some are more readily avaialable then others.
Les
Greg
Would the coin grade MS68RED again if cracked out? And is there THAT much dufference between MS67RED and MS68RED?
<< <i>One reason I don't collect high priced more modern coins is because to much of the coins percieved value is tied up in the grading services opionion on the slab. If someone who doesn't really care about that has the money they spend as disposable income thats fine with me. I think it all comes down to perssonel prefference in the end. I would love it if my coins made me rich some day, but thats not why I buy them. >>
People are collecting modern coins. This is the reason that the prices have been
on the upswing. This is the only reason. They were never really collected before
and now they are. People are going back and adding some of the older coins like
the '40 cent to their collections. The grading services can NOT make a high grade
coin. If they did then collectors would simply ignore their opinions and stop sending
in coins.
<< <i>
There have been coins both modern and classic where hoards have suddenly lowered the price or where higher graded coins have been "made" that lowered the value of the coins in the next grade lower. >>
Hordes are mostly a phenomena of classics. People saved the coins because they
contained precious metals. They are brought up from the ocean bottom because they
were sunk while moving large amounts of money, etc, etc. People don't save moderns
and the government rotates their coin stocks, large sums of money are invariably trans-
ferred by computer. If there were clad on the ocean bottom it would soon dissolve.
There are no hordes of high grade moderns. I've watched this market long enough that
it is inconcievable to me that any substantial horde could exist. There are no doubt some
small hordes but there are none which will ever cause a substantial market move. These
coins are hard to find and one couldn't even look a little without leaving signs of the effort.
<< <i>
It is certainly possible that some of the top pop moderns will remain top of pop coins if nobody saved them, it is also possible that some of them will have new coins made as the values continue to flush out attempts to "make" more examples, the problem with that risk is as previously stated that know one has a crystal ball in their head so know one knows for sure, thats more of a risk then I'd want to take.
Les >>
There are beyond a doubt still many moderns to be slabbed in high grade. Even more will
be slabbed in the mid grades. The pops of PCGS Barbers were all zero in 1985. Does that
mean that those who collected them were doing something wrong or potentially disasterous,
or that they couldn't have fun with them in 1985?
price will drop but offer no arguments.
We have had many interesting disscusions on this subject over the last few months.
I hope you can tell from the things I have said that I have nothing against modern coins or the people that collect them.
Several of your responces to my points I do disagree with strongly however.
1. High grade moderns aren't "made", really ?
To the extent that the coin inside the slab is the same inside our outside of the slab I would agree with [no one makes the coin except the mint or they go to the slammer!!!] but how many stories have we heard about people breaking coins out of slabs to get a different result "the crackout game" it might be a good time to look for the best pq 40 cents in 67 red that can be found and C-R-A-C-K them out.
Of course if people do that it will create more money for the grading services.... maybe I shouldn't go their.
2. There are no major hoards of modern coins ???
I will not claim to know for sure, but as you pointed out modern collecting is mostly a recent thing, so since slabbing costs some real money many moderns have not been slabbed and the recent prices being paid for some of the best pieces might bring out more to be slabbed that have been sitting in albums or 2 x 2's or rolls untill now. I don't think the only hoarded coins are precious metal classics sitting in the bottom of sunken ships.
By the way, I have a really neat looking pcgs graded 1892 barber quarter in 65, I bought it 3 years ago and the pops have continued to go up on this piece, it is now more common in 65 then the 16 d and it has lost 300 in value in the last three years, 13 years ago that coin was worth over 5000 dollars and now if I wanted to sell it maybe I could get 900 to 1000 in an auction from a private collector who likes pq commen dates [but it's still fun].
Les
things that go up in price quickly, tend to drop just as quickly, especially when there is a lot of "hype." Look at tech stocks 2 or 3 years ago, or the 1950D nickel in the late 60's-early 70's, or MS65/PRF65 "classic" coins in 1989-90. And these high-priced modern coins are not rare when the entire mintage of the coin is considered, and the coin is selling at 110X the next lower grade. If collectors decide that one point isn't worth 110X, then prices will drop.
So I would say it is likely (but not a certainty) that modern supergrade coins will drop quite a bit soon.
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Cladking,
things that go up in price quickly, tend to drop just as quickly, especially when there is a lot of "hype." Look at tech stocks 2 or 3 years ago, or the 1950D nickel in the late 60's-early 70's, or MS65/PRF65 "classic" coins in 1989-90. And these high-priced modern coins are not rare when the entire mintage of the coin is considered, and the coin is selling at 110X the next lower grade. If collectors decide that one point isn't worth 110X, then prices will drop.
. >>
All these statements are completely true and I'd be the last to say that this time it's different
except for a few things. You are looking at only some of the facts and one could disagree with
some of your "facts". While things which go up quickly certainly tend to drop even faster this
statement usually applies to things which have always been seen as a value and then sud-
denly for no really good reason just take off. Tech stocks were valuable long before they soared
thirty fold. Tulip bulbs had real value before some went up a hundred fold. Choice and gem
classic coins had a lot of value in the mid '80's before speculative fever pushed them through
the roof.
In the 1950's there was a little start up company called Xerox. It had no particular value be-
cause they had no particular market. But if you bought some of the stock then your fortune
multiplied a thousand fold. Even after many bad years for the stock it has more than doubled
yet again. Everything that has real value was at one time virtually worthless. The Panama
Canal bankrupted more than one company but those who believed in it came out on top. Modern
coins were essentially worthless in 1995. Mint sets sold for less than face value and proof sets
were only a little better. Most modern commems were available for bullion value or a little more.
Modern rarities were not for sale at any price but if one were autioned it would be unlikely to
bring more than a few hundred dollars. Even today such coins bring a tiny fraction of what they
would bring if they were old coins. Does anyone believe that coin prices are or should be depen-
dent on age. Of course not, it is strictly supply and demand which determine rare coin prices.
So why are modern coins priced so much lower than the classics? There is only one possible an-
swer and that is that the demand for them is a tiny fraction of the demand for the classics. Which,
of course, begs the question, Where is this hype to which people keep referring? I see a huge a-
mount of modern bashing everywhere but don't ever see ANYONE saying buy these coins because
they can only go up in price. I don't see these coins being pushed anywhere. For the main part
dealers don't stock them or much like them. Most dealers who do know much about them are buy-
ing what they can and selling those which can be more easily replaced. Most of the handfull of "ser-
ious" collectors are just trying to have fun with the coins and many of the most in demand coins are
going to the registry participants.
So where is this hype? How about some links or something. I love moderns and would really enjoy
anything about them and this applies to hype too. Show me the hype.
Sure the mint is spending millions of dollars every year trying to interest people in collecting coins
from circulation, the ANA is also trying to recruit a new generation of collectors but nobody is of-
fering instant riches to whoever will plunk down a few dollars for the latest thing to come down
the pike. The sellers sometimes suggest that the coins are fun or rare but is this hype. I've never
seen someone offer an 1804 dollar and suggest that the market for NCLT issues is saturated. Are
modern sellers supposed to bash their coins so as not to offend classic people?
You imply that high grade regular issue moderns are not rare when the entire mintage is considered.
So what? Most modern coins have either already been destroyed or are kicking around in circulation
and have been for a couple generations now. Get out a glass and take a look at a clad coin from the
1960's. Do it. This is what regular issue coins look like now. Sure none of the regular issues are rare
in uncirculated condition (many are probably far scarcer than you imagine), but look at one of these
unc coins the next time you get a chance. The odds are overwhelming that what you'll see is poorly
struck and heavily marked. What would you expect people to collect if they like moderns? Classics are
great coins but if you need a 1978 Ike then an 1878 Morgan is NOT interchangeable.
So go out and find an attractive '78 Ike and then tell me how common the moderns are.
There are people out there looking and they are finding some great coins. But as I've warned re-
peatedly, time is fleeting. These coins are not going to be available raw indefinitely. The day will
come that if you want these coins you'll have to buy them slabbed and then the crackout game will
begin for the moderns too.
Have you ever been involved in a situation which was then reported in the newspaper, only to find several misstatements of fact as well implications that were simply dead wrong? In those cases, you realize this because you were there and know what is correct!
As THE buyer of the 1940 Lincoln, I can tell you that much of the "fogginess" you find in many news reports also applies to the discussion in this thread. For example, ...
The quoted price, despite being mentioned several hundred times, is incorrect – overstated not understated; the buy-sell situation is completely misdescribed; and the motivations attributed to the buyer (me) are wrong - you know NOT whether I bought it for purposes of an interesting trade possibility, or for resale (a profit was very easy), simply as a token of an important year in one’s life, or perhaps to add to a collection.
I can guarantee that the coin was not purchased as an investment. I myself do not believe in that, though a few people seem to do well at it. As an aside, I am always amazed at the amount of focus on money by coin collectors, and whether their coins will go up or down in value; collectors of pez dispensors and many other collectibles have a different view.
I can further guarantee it was not bought for purposes of adding it to my Lincoln registry set because at this time I have none. Believe it or not, I like Stewart Blay – why would I want to see him in tears, having a temper tantrum – we all know that this happens whenever he sees that someone else has even one coin that he wants, let alone a dozen or so.
Stewart is a fascinating guy, one of the shrewdest collectors around and a marketer extraordinary. In Stewart, I have finally found someone who can nt only make chicken salad out of chicken poop, but make some people believe it smells good. He, of course, began this post to promote Lincolns, most importantly his own; particularly his 1919 Lincoln in ms69 which he would like to think of as the first $100K Lincoln. Sorry, Stewart you have already been beaten on that one – you just don’t know it!
A separate thread on the very unique 1919 Lincoln in ms69 would certainly provoke some interesting discussion with respect to quality and value. Is it, as Stewart believes, a $100K coin?
I appreciate much of the commentary in this thread, and I’m reluctant to single out any one person for praise, least you think I do not appreciate comments others made. But, I particularly respect Bill Jones and his admonitions about market risk which I have seen repeated on the message board several times. He might choose his words a little less provocatively, but he and others serve a valuable function in the hobby as "voices in the wilderness." And as a byproduct perhaps they keep prices down at least a little, which is great for buyers!
Not that I feel obligated to calm Bill or anyone else, but I nonetheless assure all who are nervous about a new collector being taken on the 1940 Lincoln that I have been collecting a variety of collectibles for many years, and am hardly a novice. I think I know risk better than most, having taught statistical assessment of risk at the graduate level for many years, and doing quite a bit of pioneering research on it as well. As far as money goes, be assured I am playing with "the house’s money"” and not house money, a point I prefer not to elaborate on that at this time.
In summary, I don’t think anyone is in a better position than me to know my motivations, my attitude towards risk taking and, last but not least, my financial ability to acquire a coin here and there for whatever purpose I want. Then there is also my assessment of the quality of the coin!!!
I am surprised not more attention has been given to discussion of quality. Even with the great pictures that Paul Houck (shylock) posted, believe me that they do not do justice to this coin. I have several very high quality Lincolns, but this is one of the best; second only perhaps to one of my 1934 Lincolns in ms68. Despite my opinion, I have been told by very respected Lincoln experts that the 1940 Lincoln is perhaps the best "wheatie" of any year that they have ever seen. One comment was: "it is entirely possible that one or more 68s will be made for 1940; I doubt very much they can be of the same quality as this one." My assessment of the extraordinary quality of this coin may be wrong, but I am certainly willing to live with it.
In general, I hope you all have fun posting whatever you like whenever you like it, but please be skeptical about what you read, particularly when it involves a reported rumor accompanied by little or no factual information.
I agree well said. If your not "betting the house" and you bought the coin because you like it, I don't think anyone here has a problem with whatever you paid for it !
I still don't feel that all high grade modern buyers go into it with the same intent as you did. I also feel that people who pay what ever they have to, to get a coin [sometimes at record shattering prices] do affect what the rest of us have to pay that can't afford to do that.
Enjoy your coin.
Les
While there may be short segments I agree with less heartily this is a most interesting and enlightening post.
ttt
Enjoy your coin.
Gerry, I second this thought!
Yea, verily.
I wonder what responses I'd get if I were to pay $15,000 for the finest known official silver centennial medal (was it HK20?)?
Obscurum per obscurius
<< <i>As an aside, I am always amazed at the amount of focus on money by coin collectors, and whether their coins will go up or down in value; collectors of pez dispensors and many other collectibles have a different view.
Yea, verily.
I wonder what responses I'd get if I were to pay $15,000 for the finest known official silver centennial medal (was it HK20?)? >>
HK-20 is not particularly rare according to Julian. While my experience with this one is limited
most of the mint medals from this era tend to be well made but less well preserved. Such a
price would certainly get some attention since such items are rarely collected by grade. My
guess would be that there is very little difference between most of the best third of these extant.
This would in no way apply to 1940 Lincolns. It wouldn't even apply to gem unc 1940 Lincolns.
edited for spelling
Obscurum per obscurius
And all along I thought successful wealthy people got that way by being idiots. Gee.
Looks like a nice coin, too. But smack that slab on the corner for a while, willya? A five-figure coin shouldn't be sitting in there crooked.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
My Dear friend Gerry,
This post has succeeded in two objectives:
1) I have brought you out of the closet and you have spoken(eloquently at that)
2) I have made your 1940 Lincoln cent famous
Sorry Gerry,Ido not want to think of my 1919 Lincoln cent as the first $100,000 Lincoln.I do know of the first reported sale of a Lincoln cent for more than $100,000.Like I told you I know ALOT more than you think.I have been collecting Lincolns for longer than yourself.
Perhaps when you want to have a "Showdown" 1909 -1934 Lincoln cents WE can escalate the popularity of Lincoln cents even further
p.s. The only three Lincoln cents that I wish to have are not in your collection.However i did want to own your 30D and 31 D
Stewart
A 1940 PCGS MS67RD Lincoln just went for $120.50 on ebay. To me the enormous premium paid here for a one point jump SEEMS unrealistic especially with the current vageries in the PCGS copper grading results.
This statement may be totally untrue.I know the man that sent in (made)the 1940 cents.He told me that he made almost 20 ms 67's from the same roll.All were very attractively toned.I can tell you that DHRC sells some WONDERFUL coins.The collestor that owns the 1940 in 68 also buys many coins from DHRC.DHRC pays quicker and does not chisel in order to obtain the best coins.
Stewart
That statement is pure hyperbole! The differences between those 67's and this 68 are miniscule by definition of what constitutes the grades. The thousands of dollars over the '67 price paid for this coin is for one thing only, the number on the slab because the visible differences between the coins CANNOT be that dramatic if we're discussing accurately graded 67's versus this 68.
So lets call it what it is, a huge price paid for the number on the slab and very minute difference on the coin.
<< <i>
That statement is pure hyperbole! The differences between those 67's and this 68 are miniscule by definition of what constitutes the grades. The thousands of dollars over the '67 price paid for this coin is for one thing only, the number on the slab because the visible differences between the coins CANNOT be that dramatic if we're discussing accurately graded 67's versus this 68.
So lets call it what it is, a huge price paid for the number on the slab and very minute difference on the coin. >>
A one point grade jump is the minimum difference in grade which is defined. Smaller
differences can certainly be detectable and larger ones can be invisable to the indiv-
idual. Many people like all upgrades especially when it's to the best.
There was a picture posted. Even in a picture this coin stands out.
The buyer's post on the previous page is a must read.
<< <i>the visible differences between the coins CANNOT be that dramatic if we're discussing accurately graded 67's versus this 68. >>
Still true even if comparing low-end 67s to high-end 68s.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
see a mouse from hundreds of feet in the air. A person who has sought out the best
possible coins will see a difference between almost any two coins even if the superior
example is in the holder with the lower grade.
Many times grade is a judgement call rather than a scaling issue, but that's not what
we're talking about here.
A friend introduced me to red wine about 10 years ago. Over the years, my palate has progressed to the point where I can easily tell the difference between two bottles of different price. The local wine manager jokes with me because he can't - but he knows that it's because he doesn't drink the same stuff. It takes exposure to high grade coins to learn the sometimes subtle differences between them, but once you do it's rather obvious.
Also, I have in the past paid much greater sums for the difference in grade for a relatively common coin. The willingness to do so helped me build what I consider to be a great set. BUT - at the time I was only interested in one series. Now that I'm building other sets, I look back on a couple of my purchases and question the expenditure for one grade. Case in point was the 1877-S trade dollar, where I upgraded the Eliasberg MS66 to the pop 1 MS67 at a net cost of around $50,000. The MS66 was solid, the MS67 is high end, but faced with wanting to add to my seated dollar set I think I'd pass if I had to do it all over again. It's simply too much value tied up in a common date conditionally rare coin. That value might be better utilized elsewhere AT THIS TIME.
So - straight from the horse's mouth - been there, done that, not sure if I'd do it again on a common date. But the differences are real and the money is relative to the opportunity cost.
Do you know that you could build a complete set of Lincolns cents (without die varieties) in 64 RED for about the same amount of money that it would take to upgrade a 1940 cent for 67 RED to 68 RED?
It would require a lot of work, of course.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
How many posters to this thread are serious Lincoln collectors? I'm just curious.
I have bought and sold a few Lincolns over the last four years and have had the chance to spend time studying many others that I cannot currently afford. I would like to think that I have developed a decent eye for this series over that time. From my perspective there are very substantial differences between all of the following levels: Low end MS67RD; Solid MS67RD, PQ MS67RD, PQ+ MS67RD but with no chance of ever being legitimately graded MS68RD, PQ+ MS67RD shot MS68RD, and true MS68RD. As much as I would love to have this eye for other series of coins I understand the enormous investment of time that has allowed my appreciation for Lincolns to grow...and I also understand how rare it is for someone of my currently limited financial means to actually be exposed to enough material of this quality to be able to grow numismatically in this area. I am by no means alone in my study of true high quality coins in this series; in fact I know quite a few individuals whose abilities expose me as still being a neophyte. I find it easy to believe that many serious collectors do not see the value that a select few see; this is true of most any series.
I think that the pricing structure of Lincolns is a benefit. Slightly lower quality coins and common later dates afford an easy entry point for newer collectors; an inequity between an albeit healthy supply and a strong and growing demand offers strong support of price levels at this time; many of the great collectors understand the value in teaching others about the finer points of the series...and this list could go on and on. When the day comes that I have the financial means to pursue coins like the 1940 MS68RD in question I will do so with a vengance...and there are many other like-minded collectors out there.
Those of you who do not agree with me...please take the time to at least consider that there is a facinatingly complex body of information that you do not possess which created this pricing level. Take some time and some money and have fun trying to build an eye-popping MS66RD+ short set...open your minds to a serious attempt to understand that there are reasons supporting the price of this coin other than market hype, "snake-oil" dealers and uninformed collectors. You have nothing to lose. Once you have spent some serious time and effort furthering your education about high grade Lincolns I would love to discuss this transaction in more depth without either side resorting to the same tired old generalized statements regarding the mechanisms governing pricing concerns in the overall rare coin market.
RELLA
who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
twenty times.