I wonder how many 4,5 and 6 figure coins cladking has. You would think many they way he speaks of the modern market. I wonder if he puts his money where his hype is? I think I recall his collecting coins out of change, but I could be wrong.
Collector and Researcher of Liberty Head Nickels. ANA LM-6053
<< <i>I wonder how many 4,5 and 6 figure coins cladking has. >>
I know of at least one he has, an example of which recently changed hands for north of $10,000. Just because somebody likes to collect from pocket change and doesn't spend all their time bragging about their coins doesn't mean they own nothing of consequence.
Well, a Pr67RD recently sold for less than $1500 - if that opinion on that little piece of paper that's in the holder is worth $20K, then someone got their money's worth - - BUT there's about 14000+ of those babies that haven't yet been graded, so until we know what each of them grade, we won't know whether this was the bargain of the year or just another over-priced modern coin from the professional grading wizard lottery.
Collecting eye-appealing Proof and MS Indian Head Cents, 1858 Flying Eagle and IHC patterns and beautiful toned coins.
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain Newmismatist
Folks, until the modern market crashes and burns, perhaps we should hold our derision.
I like classics as much as anyone else, but I am not willing to ignore the possibility that perhaps the high grade modern craze has staying power. We may be witnessing the birth of a whole new market here. People really seem to go nuts over this set registry business. Instead of dismissing all this as nonsense, perhaps ask the following question instead -- how long would current values have to hold in the high grade modern market for you to possibly consider that perhaps this is a long term legitimate market? I'm gonna say five years from now.
Not being one to be self limiting . . . I like em all!!!! I have really enjoyed the classic key set I am working on, OF COURSE my beloved proof Lincolns, and my 46-03 complete Mint and Proof Roosevelts - - with all of the varieities.
The classics give me the chills, the Proof Lincolns are nostalgic for me personally, and the Roosevelts have been just pure unabashed fun, as the competition is fierce for the top grades and is always changing.
I get much more out of this style of collecting that I actually pay for the coins, and hopefully someday I will get some reasonable value back on them when it is their time to go.
Orville, I'd love to have a 65 red 55 d/d myself. Guess I should have been more specific. I was referring to non mint error regular issues in mint state or proof.
I don't know for sure what later dates in the lincoln series are true condition rarities or not, but I am uncomfortable with any coin of any series being driven up by huge multiples because of the grade on the slab, I really hope no one thinks thats a knock on lincoln cents.
Yes, maybe there is a little envy here thinking my coins should be worth 6 figures each if modern lincolns are worth 5 figures, but if someone told me they wanted to pay me 100,000 for my best coin because it was the highest graded one that was available for a registry set when before the registry opened they didn't want it I would take the money if the person was not a child, but all the while I'd be laughing on the inside.
I genuinly believe that the prices recemtly being seen for many top of pop coins in series like the mercury dime or the lincoln cent are driven by the competition in the coin registries, think about the timing of the prices taking off for these coins and how long the registry has been popular. If you believe that is a big part of the price then let me ask you, does that sound like collection for fun or collection to compete for a higher spot in the registry ? Of course, if you think that the registry has nothing to do with it you wouldn't except my concerns.
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
1) Some believe it is looney to pay $22,000 for a Lincoln Cent 2) There seems to be this "idea" that these huge price jumps in grade are a "Modern Coin" phenomena. 3) People seem to be concerned what OTHERS think about their collections or how they collect.
Let me put to rest some of this non-sense:
1) A coin is WORTH is what someone is willing to PAY in an OPEN and FREE MARKET. End of discussion. 2) I collect $5 Indian Gold. I can assure you there are HUGE prices jumps in certain grades for certain dates. This is not so much a "Modern" phenomena people but a 20th Century thing. There are exceptions ie Morgan Dollars. 3) Why do people get all upset what SOMEONE else thinks of what or how they collect? Who the hell cares what someone else thinks? It is YOUR money when you buy. Who are you trying to please? Some jackass on a coin forum or YOURSELF? Frankly, there are just too many collectors that worry about what someone else thinks of their coins or what or how they collect. Who the f*** cares?
The coin forum is to discuss coin related issues, Somtimes people disagree about those issues, but calling people jackasses because they don't share your view is a bad way to share your views.
So you have a nice day to.
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
MD, I don't mind disagreements, but when people start mixing there points of view with putdowns and insults, they can count me out.
I have had my share of disagreements with Cladking and Winged Liberty on issues related to this, but none of us resorted to that kind of low class crapola to put each other down while exchanging points of view.
Here is a statment that I really disagree with. A coin is worth what a willing buyer is willing to pay. If that is true then the only coins that are overvalued are counterfits.
I am really interested to know why some people think that concern over coin prices being inflated by registry competition is a put down over what someone likes to collect ? I HAVE NEVER SAID THAT !!!!
But if you disagree with my views I'm not going to put you down or call you names over it.
It's about coins folks, the enjoyment of, the collecting of coins, and in a coin forum the sharing of many different views. Lets leave the putdown stuff in the grade schools with small children who don't know thats not mature yet.
I come here to talk about coins [even with people who disagree with me].
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
Here is a statment that I really disagree with. A coin is worth what a willing buyer is willing to pay. If that is true then the only coins that are overvalued are counterfits.
I don't understand what you mean. While I wouldn't pay 22,000 for a Lincoln, I don't see a problem with someone paying that much if they want to. Why does it bother you?Most everything that is sold that is a luxury is sold because of hype of some sort, including older rarer coins.
<< <i>calling people jackasses because they don't share your view is a bad way to share your views. >>
I'm sorry Barberlover but I believe you missed my point since I NEVER said that. In fact, we actually agree on this issue. There are some who seem to worry too much about what others think about how or what they collect. My point was simply that people shouldn't worry about what others think. Collect what you like. The term "jackass" had really nothing to do with anyone who might disagree with me on some point in this thread. Maybe I shouldn't have used the word but I wanted some emphisis. (edited to clarify)
<< <i>I am really interested to know why some people think that concern over coin prices being inflated by registry competition is a put down over what someone likes to collect ? I HAVE NEVER SAID THAT !!!! >>
You probably didn't but it seems you were also misunderstood. BTW, when I mention this in my post it was a general comment NOT related directly to any comment you might have made earlier in the thread.
It bothers me because directly or indirectly it affects me. Let me give some exanples why I feel it affects me;
1. If a coin is bid up because 2 registry competitors want the same coin and are willing to try to outbid each other on the coin, not because they want the coin, but because they want the number on the slab to move up in the registry that is artifically affecting the price of coins and I say artificially because if they are competing for the number on the slab and not the coin they drive up prices for the rest of us without actually liking the coin in the high grade slab. I've thought about returning to collecting lincolns which is one of the series my dad started me with, but if I do I sure won't go for the best with whats going on right now.
2. Money to burn type people, these folks can affect the coin market with no ryme or reason simply because they can afford to buy whatever they want without thought to value or consequence. I'm sure coin dealers love people like these but I do not because they can affect what I can afford because they can pay whatever is being asked without a care what it will do to those of us collecting in there money laiden shadows.
3. The hype machine, I don't know who, or what controls this bad boy, but I've had dealers tell me the run up on proof buffalo nickles and 2 and a half dollar gold indians of the last few years was caused by dealer hoarding followed by dealer hype, the dealer I talked to said he knew who the people involved were, but that he couldn't tell me who was involved. Couldn't tell me ? I wonder why ???
Is this stuff really just market driven ? MD, I really think there is more to it then that, so if it affects the prices on coins sometimes I might want or my wife might want [and she collects moderns] why shouldn't I care ?
Also, I do not think that piece of crap 70 dcam 63 lincoln is rare, of 70 quality, or worth 39 k.
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
<< <i>3. The hype machine, I don't know who, or what controls this bad boy, but I've had dealers tell me the run up on proof buffalo nickles and 2 and a half dollar gold indians of the last few years was caused by dealer hoarding followed by dealer hype, the dealer I talked to said he knew who the people involved were, but that he couldn't tell me who was involved. Couldn't tell me ? I wonder why ??? >>
But how is that different that ANY other coin in the coin market? The rare coin market isn't the New York Stock Exchange. There aren't millions of people bidding on 1963 Lincoln Cents or $2.5 gold. It is a VERY thin market to say the least. So within the coin market itself I don't see how the "worth" of a coin is NOT what someone is willing to pay.
You point #2 is a consequence of the thin rare coin market. Any knucklehead (see? I didn't use the term jackass this time! ) can run the price up on a coin AND it could be a "shill" or whatever. But what I meant by "worth", I'm assuming there were at least TWO legitimate bidders on a coin in a FREE and OPEN market.
BTW, I know what you are talking about with that run up in $2.5 gold. I know EXACTLY who that was...so I can vouch for that story.
Stewart thanks for yanking a few chains. I am not even sure I would consider this a modern vs everyone else debate. Who is to definitively say a 40 Lincoln is a modern or who has the right to say that. Personally I prefer copper but that is another debate. Lincoln wheat cents are the coins many of us started collecting that are near retiring. They may very well continue to grab strong prices as those of us near retirement spend more on this hobby, having accumulated discretionary dollars.
A better argument might be is what pop top 1940 Walkers, mercs, jeffs or washington's might bring or would they bring anywhere near this price. Anyone have some prices on these coins?
Shylock your photos continue to amaze me too. I swear some day I will get to my new camera and attempt to reach one quarter of your ability, on second thought maybe not.
How am I doing! I guess I can yank a FEW chains.The next step is for a common Lincoln to break the $100,000 barrier.After all I have been offered $100,000 for my 1919 in ms 69 and turned it down.And that is a common coin in an uncommon grade.Let the fun continue.
Stewart you are doing remarkably well, I'd sell that 1919 quick before someone else makes one, after all there were if memory serves me correctly over 375 million minted.
Everyone is entitled to spend their money on coins any way they choose so long as the coin in question is legal to own. At the same time newcomers to this hobby should be advised that people have paid totally stupid, inflated prices for coins in the past and will do so in the future. As a consumer they should be advised that there are a significant number of the collectors and dealers, who have been at this for many years, who feel that some prices are over the top.
These new collectors can accept or reject those opinions, but I think that a couple of comments are in order.
1. If you pay $22,000 for a coin, which on an overall basis is almost as common as dirt, and lose your shirt, don’t bad mouth ALL coin dealers or the numismatic hobby. YOU WERE WARNED. If you did not heed the advice, you have no one to blame but yourself. 2. If you are one of the people who is turning $5 coins into $22,000 items, take your profits and refrain from issuing personal attacks from those who disagree with you. Count yourself lucky that you are riding on the top of the bubble and leave it at that. Some day the bubble will burst, and if you are lucky only your customers will be left holding the bag; and you will have long since moved to another profession and another part of the country.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
There are guys with a lot of money who are the super high-end market, whether it is 1940 Lincolns, 1913 Nickels, 33 Saints, or whatever. They buy and sell for their own reasons. Maybe it is pure ego and hype, who knows. The point is that prices for the super high-end can go up or down in the future, depending on the attitudes of these super players.
Bill, are you serious about warning a new collector about the hazards of $22K coins. Yeah, I think I'll go warn my 12 year old son now. Maybe while he is pulling statehood qtrs out of pocket change, he might be tempted to buy a $22K Lincoln. Get serious. Someone who can spend $22K on one coin certainly does care about or want our advice. Probably doesn't read the Board. He could buy or sell most of us anyway. In any event none of us know what the future will bring for low pop coins. All we can really warn about anyway is the risks and volatility which are likely to be substantial. Get it, no one can forecast with accuracy future returns. Nothing is price so high that it can't go higher, nor so low that it can't go lower. Hey, you don't have to warn me either. I know the deal already.
Barberlover, to answer your issues about the perceived effects on you. The existence of super-money guys apparently makes the low-pops inaccessible to you. Sorry, but I would like to own Van Gogh paintings and can't. Welcome to the real world. People with more money can buy the best. You will just have to buy a grade down and be satisfied. Even w/o the big money guys, the low pops are extremely expensive. And, as far as the hype machine goes, it operates mostly outside the high end. Do you really think the Home Shopping guys are trying to sell $22K Lincolns?
At the end of the day, a pop 1 or pop 2 anything is incredible rare. It will command a premium price. How much of a premium is a market question. If you don't think they are worth it, you won't buy it. For these coins the market is determined by the best buyer and seller, and always will be.
BTW, to whoever asked, the last time I looked low - pop MS68 common date Walkers start around $4,000.
<< <i>Bill, are you serious about warning a new collector about the hazards of $22K coins. >>
Yes, I am Typetone. And frankly I don't care for the tone of your response.
I've got no ax to grind here. I don't own any of this overpriced modern material, and I could never sell it at the prices that these people are getting with a clear conscience. And I have no fear that this modern material will ruin the market for the older coins that I do own. There will always be a demand for them so long as there are true numismatic collectors. The worst fear that I do have is that some of these new collectors, once burned, will leave this wonderful hobby forever.
You can try to trivialize what I write as much as you want, Typetone. But the proof that I have made headway with a few people can be gauged by the highly negative responses that my posts on this subject have prompted from those who profit by selling these coins.
Many of them have been around long enough to know that they are selling snake oil. You don’t have to go back too far to see similar runaway markets that collapsed with material that was even scarcer than the stuff that these people are promoting today. The late 1970’s and the early and late 1980’s all come to mind. In each instance no body, except for some collectors and dealers who have seen it all before, thought that that bubble would ever burst, but it did. And when it did a lot of people with more money that brains got burnt.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
For all those that think moderns are overpriced, how cool would it be if you could actually sell them short? Perhaps one days the market will evolve to that point
"I don't own any of this overpriced modern material, and I could never sell it at the prices that these people are getting with a clear conscience."
Bill: There also appears to be a certain "tone" to your comment. A couple years ago, I owned (4) of these "overpriced" MS68RD modern cents (see my prior comment on this thread) and sold them for around $8k or $9k for all 4 coins to a couple of Lincoln collectors. Today, those (4) MS68RD cents are possibly worth somewhere around $40k - 60k+ for the 4 coins on the open market. Was there "snake oil" sold here in the case of these (4) Lincolns? If the opposite would have happened and the coins had crashed to $500/coin or $2000 for all 4 instead of rising to $50k, would you have said "told you so - how obvious that would have occured"?. If those same (4) coins now go from say $50k today back down to only $5k 3 years from now, was this a "snake oil" deal all along?
I am just curious how the fact that some moderns may have increased 5x or 10x over the past couple years (like the very MS68RD wheats mentioned in this particular thread - I am just discussing the very coins involved in this particular thread) impacts the ultimate conclusion a couple years from now (depending upon what happens in the future from here) that these moderns were nothing other than "snake oil" from the beginning? Do you see what I am getting at here - I am not asking that you agree with it of course?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I've got no ax to grind here. I don't own any of this overpriced modern material, and I could never sell it at the prices that these people are getting with a clear conscience. And I have no fear that this modern material will ruin the market for the older coins that I do own. There will always be a demand for them so long as there are true numismatic collectors. The worst fear that I do have is that some of these new collectors, once burned, will leave this wonderful hobby forever.
You can try to trivialize what I write as much as you want, Typetone. But the proof that I have made headway with a few people can be gauged by the highly negative responses that my posts on this subject have prompted from those who profit by selling these coins.
Many of them have been around long enough to know that they are selling snake oil. You don’t have to go back too far to see similar runaway markets that collapsed with material that was even scarcer than the stuff that these people are promoting today. The late 1970’s and the early and late 1980’s all come to mind. In each instance no body, except for some collectors and dealers who have seen it all before, thought that that bubble would ever burst, but it did. And when it did a lot of people with more money that brains got burnt. >>
This is the kind of mean spirited and unreasonable attacks to which I referred earlier.
The entire post contains but a single point which has been answered numerous times but apparently some don't read anything but their own posts.
This is the same man who made the above post questioning the tone of someone who disagreed with an unreasonable attack who has questioned the integrity, sanity, and intelligence of anyone who would dare to collect, grade, or deal in these coins.
You two fellows are prime examples of the mindset to which I referred to in the post that started this fracas. Quite obviously both you are doing quite well selling modern coins for good prices, and don’t want anyone to cast doubts on the markets that you are making.
What amazes me is why it is so easy for me to raise your ire. If I am an old fuddy-duddy and the village idiot, then why are you so concerned about my comments in this area? Why don’t you just ignore me?
The bottom line is that I have no confidence in the 1940 cents, regardless of the grade, at $22,000. To me paying $22,000 for that coin is as bad as paying $15 or $20 thousand at auction for a rare, high grade, possibly finest known Hard Times token that formerly sold for $2 or $3 thousand. In the case of the Hard Times token the prices were paid during an overheated market, and they ultimately crashed and burned taking their buyers “investment” along with them. I’ve seen this cycle at least twice since I got involved with Hard Times tokens as a small time dealer and bigger time collector more than 20 years ago. The main difference is that the Hard Times Token is scarce (less than 40 known in all grades) while the 1940 cent in a total population sense is as common as mud.
I’ll make this simple. I have no confidence in the price of very common date coins that show 10,000 fold or greater price increases for one or even two grading points. Those who “invest” in such items bear two risks. One is the market, which is obvious.
The other is the environmental. What happens of this MS-68 1940 cent grows a spot? We all know the answer to that one unless the buyer is an ego driven, Registry fool who cares more about his place in the standings than the coins he collects. In that case the coin could turn green and become pitted, but if it is pop-1 the serial number would still be good.
I’m perfectly willing to agree to disagree, and so long as people continue to pose questions about $22,000, 1940 Lincoln cents and coins of their ilk, I’ll continue to comment.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
For a hypothetical coin: If a pop 100 67 was worth $220, why would a pop 1 68 (100 times rarer from a condition standpoint) not be worth 100 times more? It seems far less than that multiple might be a bargain (to some). ??? ???
(Of course I acknowledge that may not exist a direct linear realtionship between the 2)
You are falling into the same trap the Dr. Sheldon did when he developed his “scientific method" for placing values of cents. There are no laws of economics that would support an elasticity of demand that you suggest here for one grading point. In fact very rare or momentarily “in demand” coins have a record of going for more than they are worth when frenzied buyers gather to compete for them. Such coins can reach what investment analysts call “speculative” levels.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
Well, with respect to top pops, especially go ga grade modern coins that are common in grades one or 2 points lower, some people apparently feel that "it's different this time." This is the same mindset that led many to invest in highly speculative internet and biotech stocks during their respective frenzies... a time when P/E and other fundamental measures of "value" were thrown out the window, and momentum and the greater fool theory ruled. And the same thing is going on right now in the coin market. You have the people making the money from the hype, you have the people buying in late-cycle and are going to get left holding the bag, and you have the people on the sidelines, shaking their heads and being called "Cassandra" (later, everyone will wonder why they didn't see it coming, and say to these crusty old men, "you were right") the more things change, the more they stay the same.
I'm not going to get into the deep economics of this, and I do think it absurd to pay such prices.. but maybe the person who bought the coin thought it would be more special to have a coin that was the best out of millions, rather than a coin that was the best out of only a few. Would you rather be the best out of everyone in the country or everyone in the room?
Bill: Please separate my post from Cladking or Redcents for a moment. What about those (2) collectors that stand to make $41,000++ (possibly, or perhaps nothing if the "greed" factor sets in and they fail to take their profits now) on their $9,000 buy of (4) MS68RD cents a couple years ago? Is "snake oil" only determined after the fact when it is shown a coin dropped in price, but, if coins skyrocket like these MS68RD have in the past couple years it is never recognized (especially by the "modern bashers") what a great purchase those particular moderns were for those collectors? Where is the fairness and sense of "fair play" in that?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Bill, people are going to disagree on this issue as long as this issue exists. There are probably true condition rarities in post depression era coins, but the risks of bidding up the top graded pieces are numourus even if they hold their value in the short term.
As long as new collectors don't dive head long into bidding wars for top of pop coins to grab a place in the registry, I certainly have no problem with someone buying any modern coin as long as they buy the coin and the plastic is secondary and also as long as their buying habits don't drastically affect the prices of the coins my wife or I might want to buy.
When I first heard of the coin registries, I thought they were good for the hobby, but after some of the stuff I've witnessed the last year especially, I'm not so sure if hobby is the prime motive here.
It might suprise some people to hear me say this but I hope nobody losses money on their 5 figure modern lincolns.
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
The first coin I ever bought that was a pop 1/0 was a modern clad dime. It was a nice feeling to know that I had the only one (at that time), and I figured that was what Eliasberg and other collectors at the top of the coin/food chain felt like. I figured it was the closest I would ever come to having a coin that was "the one and only," since I believed that I would never own the finest Morgan Dollar, etc. That was good enough for me to plop down $500. I enjoyed every cent of it, whether I get that money back or not.
Some people play at a different level, and can easily put up $20,000 for the coin of their choosing. If I was at a certain point in my collection and wealth, I would probably pay it too.
This is a very valid part of coin collecting, and one of the reasons the Registry Set has become so popular. Will I have the finest set of Trade or Morgan Dollars? No, but I do have a couple of number one sets. I enjoy the competition as well as the coins themselves. Modern coins offer this opportunity to regular folks, who can't afford to spend $5 million on a set of Morgan Dollars. So let us have some fun with our Registry Sets and pop top moderns.
Personally, I collected Wheats as a kid like most everyone else here, and there is a lot of sentimental value in collecting the best grades you can of the coins you dreamt of as a child.
By the way, I have many more classics than moderns!
You two fellows are prime examples of the mindset to which I referred to in the post that started this fracas. Quite obviously both you are doing quite well selling modern coins for good prices, and don’t want anyone to cast doubts on the markets that you are making.
What amazes me is why it is so easy for me to raise your ire. If I am an old fuddy-duddy and the village idiot, then why are you so concerned about my comments in this area? Why don’t you just ignore me?
. >>
I don't think you're a fuddy duddy or any specific type of idiot. I think you made up your mind about moderns in 1965 and you have no intention of ever entertaining any new ideas, opinions or facts on the subject.
You've even questioned my integrity before because you assume I sell high grade moderns. There is absolutely no basis for you personal and market attacks. You were told at that time that I have NEVER sold a high grade modern yet you persist in these false and derogatory statements.
I’ll put it this way. When I buy a coin as a collector, I buy it because I want to collect it. Period. Investment considerations do not play a role in which coins that I decide to add to my collection. It’s purely a matter of what I want to collect.
Financial considerations come into play when it comes to deciding if I am paying a fair price. Quite obviously only a fool or perhaps someone who has a terminal illness would pay $20,000 for something that he thinks will fall to $2,000 in a couple years. I’ve had instances when I stopped collecting certain things because I thought that the prices would come down. Most of time I have analyzed or guessed it right. Sometimes I have been wrong.
For example I have wanted a representative example a 1789 George Washington inaugural button for a long time. The right one came along a couple of years ago, but I did not pull the trigger because my hobby budget was running a little lean. Then the prices went ga-ga on them at auctions, and I figure that I’m now out on that one permanently. So it goes. I think that prices for that item, which were once a couple thousand for the most desirable variety and are now $5 or $6 grand will probably hold up. I don’t know that for sure, but really pristine ones with the original shank in place with the original fastener (not replaced with modern solder) are very scarce and real national heirlooms.
To make a long story short, I don’t have any confidence in the long term values that I see people paying for these super grade, super common date coins. Therefore I would not touch them for a fraction of those prices. I think I’m right, but I could be wrong too. That’s my opinion based on 40 years of fooling with this hobby.
As for your ethic I would say that you are in the same position as the stockbrokers who sold tech stocks to people at inflated prices. Is it ethical to sell them? Sure. That was the going market. Would it be ethical to tell people that they were are good buy when you personal opinion was that they were “junk?” The Securities and Exchange Commission didn’t think so, and that got some Wall Street firms in some hot water for that not long ago.
Would I sell these coins to my customers at these prices? Sure, but only after I told them that was the “current market;” they were overpriced IMO; and that they were on their own after the sale. After telling them that, I don’t think that I would make a sale.
And sure maybe your customers could make $40 grand on the four cents. More power to them! But the deal would not interest me unless I was selling those coins as an agent to a dealer because I have no faith in the value of these coins. I think that collectors a paying WAY too much for them.
As for the collector bug and holding when you should be selling, I know that bug very well. I should probably be selling all of my early coins right now and making bundle on them before the market comes back down to earth. Still I just don’t fell like living without those coins that it has taken me 30 years to collect. Besides all I’d get would be money, and a lot of that would get eaten up in taxes. I can earn money from other sources. Replacing those coins … well that’s another matter.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
<< <i>Well, with respect to top pops, especially go ga grade modern coins that are common in grades one or 2 points lower, some people apparently feel that "it's different this time." This is the same mindset that led many to invest in highly speculative internet and biotech stocks during their respective frenzies... a time when P/E and other fundamental measures of "value" were thrown out the window, and momentum and the greater fool theory ruled. And the same thing is going on right now in the coin market. You have the people making the money from the hype, you have the people buying in late-cycle and are going to get left holding the bag, and you have the people on the sidelines, shaking their heads and being called "Cassandra" (later, everyone will wonder why they didn't see it coming, and say to these crusty old men, "you were right") the more things change, the more they stay the same. >>
Baley: You assert that this is late cycle with regard to moderns at the current time. I have to assume that this is based on the observation that the prices are moving up and have been for some time. Isn't it logical that if it were really late cycle that the demand would be very high? This is the way speculative markets get; prices increase unti more people start buying just to capitalize on the increases which spur more people to buy which drives the price up in a specu- lative spiral. Where's all the demand? The message boards are full of doubters and cranks who slam moderns at most any opportunity. The coin shops for the main part won't carry moderns for fear of offending the regulars or losing all their capital. This is actually a tiny niche market still where one has to seek out one of the few dealers who specialize in this material. Rare modern coins go for a tiny fraction of an equally rare classic. Condition rare moderns are priced lower still. No one knows where these markets are going but this has NONE of the earmarks of the bubbles that some of the cranks around here have lost their money in.
I'm waiting for someone who knows moderns to tell me they're overpriced and I'll start selling when the fuddy duddys start buying. Until then I'm just hanging on for the ride.
I don't get paying five figure prices for top pop super gem common dates in any series, and that includes Morgans and other classics, where coins one or two points lower sell for 10% of the top pop price.
With rare coins, I can understand the electricity of owning say the finest of five known, especially if only one or two are mint state coins. But owning the finest of a zillion known, including hundreds or even thousands one point lower, just doesn't excite me. Its kind of like listening to the HSN guys hawking NGC silver and gold eagle bullion coins in 69 and 70 grades as existing only in small numbers.
I suppose, even if I had money to burn, that I would want to put that MS68 right next to an MS67 and I would have to conclude that the 68 looks 10 times better to pay a 10X multiple for it.
Now having said that, do any of the Lincoln afficionados here genuinely believe that the ms68 Lincoln is 100X nicer than a 67?
Now having said that, do any of the Lincoln afficionados here genuinely believe that the ms68 Lincoln is 100X nicer than a 67? >>
I don't know about Lincolns but can say that if it's a coin I've tried long and hard to upgrade then one that's even a slight improvement can look a million times better.
<< <i> don't know about Lincolns but can say that if it's a coin I've tried long and hard to upgrade then one that's even a slight improvement can look a million times better. >>
Clad,
Your answer is merely rehtoircal and not responsive to an acutal situation. One would assume that a collector would work hard to upgrade a coin that was clearly defficient in some manner. Now when we enter the loft realm of 67 and 68 grades that should not be the case. In fact the difference between a 67 and a 68 is likely to be a matter of debate in many cases.
"As for your ethic I would say that you are in the same position as the stockbrokers who sold tech stocks to people at inflated prices."
Bill: Notwithstanding the fact that I am very confident the majority of my personal coin sales (in dollars of course) and purchases for the past several years have been for "classic coins" (i.e. so there is no real basis for your comment if it relates to "modern coins" equating to "tech stocks"), let me "run" with your comment and say the problem is no one truly knows where in the "cycle" they ever are - do they? In other words, while Microsoft "tech stock" is certainly 1/2 the price of where it was a couple years ago, it is still roughly 5x the price of where it was in 1994! So, when I sold those 4 cents for say $9k which are worth roughly $50k today, most folks who oppose modern coins called that sales price "inflated' even back then at $9k. Fair point?
Now, take this $22k 1940(p) cent (which I had no part in)
You would have suggested the coin was an "inflated tech stock" when it was worth $5000 just a couple years - right? Now, it is around a $20,000 coin. While we both might agree that in our hunble opinions it is now clearly an "inflated tech stock", of course, we do not know for sure the coin can not command $30,000 next year if it remains pop 1 (as it has for 16 years). Indeed, DHRC is offering a 1936 MINT STATE Walker this week for around $27,500 as the pop 1. If this coin had sold for $10,000 2 years ago - you might have believed it was an "inflated tech stock" then at that level and questioned the seller offering it for $10k. Interestingly, my buyers on those 4 cents stand to make a $41,000 return on only a $9,000 buy a couple years ago. Few pure classic plays I am aware of have returned that amount to buyers in such a short time. BUT, OF COURSE I HAD NO IDEA THE COINS WOULD DO THAT WELL, NOR DO I DISCUSS CLASSIC OR MODERN SALES IN TERMS OF "INVESTMENTS". Obviously, if I knew the modern MS68RD Lincolns would have performed that incredibly well, do you think I would have sold $50k in coins for $9k - who would have? And, that is exactly my point, I am not that audacious to "tell" the audience who reads this board that "classics are good" or "moderns are bad", etc. How could I - I have proven to everyone here that I have no friggin clue what classic or modern coins will do from year to year. If I was smart enough to know that, I wouldn't have sold those 4 cents (to name just a couple coins) - I would have simply been selling all along the "inflated, overpriced tech stocks" while keeping those juicy 4 cents to make an extra $41k a couple years later.
I also respect your opinion Bill and know you are far from a "fool". In a non-argumentative way, I just wanted to present to you some "food for thought". Very few seasoned, well-heeled, modern coin buyers, even the ones who are doing quite well at it year to year, come on the board and attack the buying habits of classic coin buyers - even the worst of them who lose their shirts with the classics on a regular basis
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Comments
<< <i>I wonder how many 4,5 and 6 figure coins cladking has. >>
I know of at least one he has, an example of which recently changed hands for north of $10,000. Just because somebody likes to collect from pocket change and doesn't spend all their time bragging about their coins doesn't mean they own nothing of consequence.
Russ, NCNE
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain
Newmismatist
I like classics as much as anyone else, but I am not willing to ignore the possibility that perhaps the high grade modern craze has staying power. We may be witnessing the birth of a whole new market here. People really seem to go nuts over this set registry business. Instead of dismissing all this as nonsense, perhaps ask the following question instead -- how long would current values have to hold in the high grade modern market for you to possibly consider that perhaps this is a long term legitimate market? I'm gonna say five years from now.
Not being one to be self limiting . . . I like em all!!!! I have really enjoyed the classic key set I am working on, OF COURSE my beloved proof Lincolns, and my 46-03 complete Mint and Proof Roosevelts - - with all of the varieities.
The classics give me the chills, the Proof Lincolns are nostalgic for me personally, and the Roosevelts have been just pure unabashed fun, as the competition is fierce for the top grades and is always changing.
I get much more out of this style of collecting that I actually pay for the coins, and hopefully someday I will get some reasonable value back on them when it is their time to go.
So bash on brothers and sisters!
I don't know for sure what later dates in the lincoln series are true condition rarities or not, but I am uncomfortable with any coin of any series being driven up by huge multiples because of the grade on the slab, I really hope no one thinks thats a knock on lincoln cents.
Yes, maybe there is a little envy here thinking my coins should be worth 6 figures each if modern lincolns are worth 5 figures, but if someone told me they wanted to pay me 100,000 for my best coin because it was the highest graded one that was available for a registry set when before the registry opened they didn't want it I would take the money if the person was not a child, but all the while I'd be laughing on the inside.
I genuinly believe that the prices recemtly being seen for many top of pop coins in series like the mercury dime or the lincoln cent are driven by the competition in the coin registries, think about the timing of the prices taking off for these coins and how long the registry has been popular. If you believe that is a big part of the price then let me ask you, does that sound like collection for fun or collection to compete for a higher spot in the registry ? Of course, if you think that the registry has nothing to do with it you wouldn't except my concerns.
Les
1) Some believe it is looney to pay $22,000 for a Lincoln Cent
2) There seems to be this "idea" that these huge price jumps in grade are a "Modern Coin" phenomena.
3) People seem to be concerned what OTHERS think about their collections or how they collect.
Let me put to rest some of this non-sense:
1) A coin is WORTH is what someone is willing to PAY in an OPEN and FREE MARKET. End of discussion.
2) I collect $5 Indian Gold. I can assure you there are HUGE prices jumps in certain grades for certain dates. This is not so much a "Modern" phenomena people but a 20th Century thing. There are exceptions ie Morgan Dollars.
3) Why do people get all upset what SOMEONE else thinks of what or how they collect? Who the hell cares what someone else thinks? It is YOUR money when you buy. Who are you trying to please? Some jackass on a coin forum or YOURSELF? Frankly, there are just too many collectors that worry about what someone else thinks of their coins or what or how they collect. Who the f*** cares?
Have a nice day.
jom
So you have a nice day to.
Les
We'll use our hands and hearts and if we must we'll use our heads.
I have had my share of disagreements with Cladking and Winged Liberty on issues related to this, but none of us resorted to that kind of low class crapola to put each other down while exchanging points of view.
Here is a statment that I really disagree with. A coin is worth what a willing buyer is willing to pay. If that is true then the only coins that are overvalued are counterfits.
I am really interested to know why some people think that concern over coin prices being inflated by registry competition is a put down over what someone likes to collect ? I HAVE NEVER SAID THAT !!!!
But if you disagree with my views I'm not going to put you down or call you names over it.
It's about coins folks, the enjoyment of, the collecting of coins, and in a coin forum the sharing of many different views. Lets leave the putdown stuff in the grade schools with small children who don't know thats not mature yet.
I come here to talk about coins [even with people who disagree with me].
Les
I don't understand what you mean. While I wouldn't pay 22,000 for a Lincoln, I don't see a problem with someone paying that much if they want to. Why does it bother you?Most everything that is sold that is a luxury is sold because of hype of some sort, including older rarer coins.
We'll use our hands and hearts and if we must we'll use our heads.
<< <i>calling people jackasses because they don't share your view is a bad way to share your views. >>
I'm sorry Barberlover but I believe you missed my point since I NEVER said that. In fact, we actually agree on this issue. There are some who seem to worry too much about what others think about how or what they collect. My point was simply that people shouldn't worry about what others think. Collect what you like. The term "jackass" had really nothing to do with anyone who might disagree with me on some point in this thread. Maybe I shouldn't have used the word but I wanted some emphisis. (edited to clarify)
<< <i>I am really interested to know why some people think that concern over coin prices being inflated by registry competition is a put down over what someone likes to collect ? I HAVE NEVER SAID THAT !!!! >>
You probably didn't but it seems you were also misunderstood. BTW, when I mention this in my post it was a general comment NOT related directly to any comment you might have made earlier in the thread.
jom
We'll use our hands and hearts and if we must we'll use our heads.
jom
It bothers me because directly or indirectly it affects me. Let me give some exanples why I feel it affects me;
1. If a coin is bid up because 2 registry competitors want the same coin and are willing to try to outbid each other on the coin, not because they want the coin, but because they want the number on the slab to move up in the registry that is artifically affecting the price of coins and I say artificially because if they are competing for the number on the slab and not the coin they drive up prices for the rest of us without actually liking the coin in the high grade slab. I've thought about returning to collecting lincolns which is one of the series my dad started me with, but if I do I sure won't go for the best with whats going on right now.
2. Money to burn type people, these folks can affect the coin market with no ryme or reason simply because they can afford to buy whatever they want without thought to value or consequence.
I'm sure coin dealers love people like these but I do not because they can affect what I can afford because they can pay whatever is being asked without a care what it will do to those of us collecting in there money laiden shadows.
3. The hype machine, I don't know who, or what controls this bad boy, but I've had dealers tell me the run up on proof buffalo nickles and 2 and a half dollar gold indians of the last few years was caused by dealer hoarding followed by dealer hype, the dealer I talked to said he knew who the people involved were, but that he couldn't tell me who was involved. Couldn't tell me ? I wonder why ???
Is this stuff really just market driven ? MD, I really think there is more to it then that, so if it affects the prices on coins sometimes I might want or my wife might want [and she collects moderns] why shouldn't I care ?
Also, I do not think that piece of crap 70 dcam 63 lincoln is rare, of 70 quality, or worth 39 k.
Les
<< <i>3. The hype machine, I don't know who, or what controls this bad boy, but I've had dealers tell me the run up on proof buffalo nickles and 2 and a half dollar gold indians of the last few years was caused by dealer hoarding followed by dealer hype, the dealer I talked to said he knew who the people involved were, but that he couldn't tell me who was involved. Couldn't tell me ? I wonder why ??? >>
But how is that different that ANY other coin in the coin market? The rare coin market isn't the New York Stock Exchange. There aren't millions of people bidding on 1963 Lincoln Cents or $2.5 gold. It is a VERY thin market to say the least. So within the coin market itself I don't see how the "worth" of a coin is NOT what someone is willing to pay.
You point #2 is a consequence of the thin rare coin market. Any knucklehead (see? I didn't use the term jackass this time!
BTW, I know what you are talking about with that run up in $2.5 gold. I know EXACTLY who that was...so I can vouch for that story.
jom
A better argument might be is what pop top 1940 Walkers, mercs, jeffs or washington's might bring or would they bring anywhere near this price. Anyone have some prices on these coins?
Shylock your photos continue to amaze me too. I swear some day I will get to my new camera and attempt to reach one quarter of your ability, on second thought maybe not.
Hey Irish Mike,
How am I doing! I guess I can yank a FEW chains.The next step is for a common Lincoln to break the $100,000 barrier.After all I have been offered $100,000 for my 1919 in ms 69 and turned it down.And that is a common coin in an uncommon grade.Let the fun continue.
stewart
I think that 1919 is really a matte proof someone slipped into the mint at midnight and made.
Everyone is entitled to spend their money on coins any way they choose so long as the coin in question is legal to own. At the same time newcomers to this hobby should be advised that people have paid totally stupid, inflated prices for coins in the past and will do so in the future. As a consumer they should be advised that there are a significant number of the collectors and dealers, who have been at this for many years, who feel that some prices are over the top.
These new collectors can accept or reject those opinions, but I think that a couple of comments are in order.
1. If you pay $22,000 for a coin, which on an overall basis is almost as common as dirt, and lose your shirt, don’t bad mouth ALL coin dealers or the numismatic hobby. YOU WERE WARNED. If you did not heed the advice, you have no one to blame but yourself.
2. If you are one of the people who is turning $5 coins into $22,000 items, take your profits and refrain from issuing personal attacks from those who disagree with you. Count yourself lucky that you are riding on the top of the bubble and leave it at that. Some day the bubble will burst, and if you are lucky only your customers will be left holding the bag; and you will have long since moved to another profession and another part of the country.
There are guys with a lot of money who are the super high-end market, whether it is 1940 Lincolns, 1913 Nickels, 33 Saints, or whatever. They buy and sell for their own reasons. Maybe it is pure ego and hype, who knows. The point is that prices for the super high-end can go up or down in the future, depending on the attitudes of these super players.
Bill, are you serious about warning a new collector about the hazards of $22K coins. Yeah, I think I'll go warn my 12 year old son now. Maybe while he is pulling statehood qtrs out of pocket change, he might be tempted to buy a $22K Lincoln. Get serious. Someone who can spend $22K on one coin certainly does care about or want our advice. Probably doesn't read the Board. He could buy or sell most of us anyway. In any event none of us know what the future will bring for low pop coins. All we can really warn about anyway is the risks and volatility which are likely to be substantial. Get it, no one can forecast with accuracy future returns. Nothing is price so high that it can't go higher, nor so low that it can't go lower. Hey, you don't have to warn me either. I know the deal already.
Barberlover, to answer your issues about the perceived effects on you. The existence of super-money guys apparently makes the low-pops inaccessible to you. Sorry, but I would like to own Van Gogh paintings and can't. Welcome to the real world. People with more money can buy the best. You will just have to buy a grade down and be satisfied. Even w/o the big money guys, the low pops are extremely expensive. And, as far as the hype machine goes, it operates mostly outside the high end. Do you really think the Home Shopping guys are trying to sell $22K Lincolns?
At the end of the day, a pop 1 or pop 2 anything is incredible rare. It will command a premium price. How much of a premium is a market question. If you don't think they are worth it, you won't buy it. For these coins the market is determined by the best buyer and seller, and always will be.
BTW, to whoever asked, the last time I looked low - pop MS68 common date Walkers start around $4,000.
Greg
<< <i>Bill, are you serious about warning a new collector about the hazards of $22K coins. >>
Yes, I am Typetone. And frankly I don't care for the tone of your response.
I've got no ax to grind here. I don't own any of this overpriced modern material, and I could never sell it at the prices that these people are getting with a clear conscience. And I have no fear that this modern material will ruin the market for the older coins that I do own. There will always be a demand for them so long as there are true numismatic collectors. The worst fear that I do have is that some of these new collectors, once burned, will leave this wonderful hobby forever.
You can try to trivialize what I write as much as you want, Typetone. But the proof that I have made headway with a few people can be gauged by the highly negative responses that my posts on this subject have prompted from those who profit by selling these coins.
Many of them have been around long enough to know that they are selling snake oil. You don’t have to go back too far to see similar runaway markets that collapsed with material that was even scarcer than the stuff that these people are promoting today. The late 1970’s and the early and late 1980’s all come to mind. In each instance no body, except for some collectors and dealers who have seen it all before, thought that that bubble would ever burst, but it did. And when it did a lot of people with more money that brains got burnt.
Bill: There also appears to be a certain "tone" to your comment. A couple years ago, I owned (4) of these "overpriced" MS68RD modern cents (see my prior comment on this thread) and sold them for around $8k or $9k for all 4 coins to a couple of Lincoln collectors. Today, those (4) MS68RD cents are possibly worth somewhere around $40k - 60k+ for the 4 coins on the open market. Was there "snake oil" sold here in the case of these (4) Lincolns? If the opposite would have happened and the coins had crashed to $500/coin or $2000 for all 4 instead of rising to $50k, would you have said "told you so - how obvious that would have occured"?. If those same (4) coins now go from say $50k today back down to only $5k 3 years from now, was this a "snake oil" deal all along?
I am just curious how the fact that some moderns may have increased 5x or 10x over the past couple years (like the very MS68RD wheats mentioned in this particular thread - I am just discussing the very coins involved in this particular thread) impacts the ultimate conclusion a couple years from now (depending upon what happens in the future from here) that these moderns were nothing other than "snake oil" from the beginning? Do you see what I am getting at here - I am not asking that you agree with it of course?
Wondercoin
<< <i>
I've got no ax to grind here. I don't own any of this overpriced modern material, and I could never sell it at the prices that these people are getting with a clear conscience. And I have no fear that this modern material will ruin the market for the older coins that I do own. There will always be a demand for them so long as there are true numismatic collectors. The worst fear that I do have is that some of these new collectors, once burned, will leave this wonderful hobby forever.
You can try to trivialize what I write as much as you want, Typetone. But the proof that I have made headway with a few people can be gauged by the highly negative responses that my posts on this subject have prompted from those who profit by selling these coins.
Many of them have been around long enough to know that they are selling snake oil. You don’t have to go back too far to see similar runaway markets that collapsed with material that was even scarcer than the stuff that these people are promoting today. The late 1970’s and the early and late 1980’s all come to mind. In each instance no body, except for some collectors and dealers who have seen it all before, thought that that bubble would ever burst, but it did. And when it did a lot of people with more money that brains got burnt. >>
This is the kind of mean spirited and unreasonable attacks to which I referred earlier.
The entire post contains but a single point which has been answered numerous times
but apparently some don't read anything but their own posts.
This is the same man who made the above post questioning the tone of someone who
disagreed with an unreasonable attack who has questioned the integrity, sanity, and
intelligence of anyone who would dare to collect, grade, or deal in these coins.
Give it a damn rest Billjones.
You two fellows are prime examples of the mindset to which I referred to in the post that started this fracas. Quite obviously both you are doing quite well selling modern coins for good prices, and don’t want anyone to cast doubts on the markets that you are making.
What amazes me is why it is so easy for me to raise your ire. If I am an old fuddy-duddy and the village idiot, then why are you so concerned about my comments in this area? Why don’t you just ignore me?
The bottom line is that I have no confidence in the 1940 cents, regardless of the grade, at $22,000. To me paying $22,000 for that coin is as bad as paying $15 or $20 thousand at auction for a rare, high grade, possibly finest known Hard Times token that formerly sold for $2 or $3 thousand. In the case of the Hard Times token the prices were paid during an overheated market, and they ultimately crashed and burned taking their buyers “investment” along with them. I’ve seen this cycle at least twice since I got involved with Hard Times tokens as a small time dealer and bigger time collector more than 20 years ago. The main difference is that the Hard Times Token is scarce (less than 40 known in all grades) while the 1940 cent in a total population sense is as common as mud.
I’ll make this simple. I have no confidence in the price of very common date coins that show 10,000 fold or greater price increases for one or even two grading points. Those who “invest” in such items bear two risks. One is the market, which is obvious.
The other is the environmental. What happens of this MS-68 1940 cent grows a spot? We all know the answer to that one unless the buyer is an ego driven, Registry fool who cares more about his place in the standings than the coins he collects. In that case the coin could turn green and become pitted, but if it is pop-1 the serial number would still be good.
I’m perfectly willing to agree to disagree, and so long as people continue to pose questions about $22,000, 1940 Lincoln cents and coins of their ilk, I’ll continue to comment.
(Of course I acknowledge that may not exist a direct linear realtionship between the 2)
You are falling into the same trap the Dr. Sheldon did when he developed his “scientific method" for placing values of cents. There are no laws of economics that would support an elasticity of demand that you suggest here for one grading point. In fact very rare or momentarily “in demand” coins have a record of going for more than they are worth when frenzied buyers gather to compete for them. Such coins can reach what investment analysts call “speculative” levels.
This is the same mindset that led many to invest in highly speculative internet and biotech stocks during their respective frenzies... a time when P/E and other fundamental measures of "value" were thrown out the window, and momentum and the greater fool theory ruled.
And the same thing is going on right now in the coin market. You have the people making the money from the hype, you have the people buying in late-cycle and are going to get left holding the bag, and you have the people on the sidelines, shaking their heads and being called "Cassandra" (later, everyone will wonder why they didn't see it coming, and say to these crusty old men, "you were right")
the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing"
Oscar Wilde
Again, not my view but a possible perspective.
My wantlist & references
Wondercoin
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
As long as new collectors don't dive head long into bidding wars for top of pop coins to grab a place in the registry, I certainly have no problem with someone buying any modern coin as long as they buy the coin and the plastic is secondary and also as long as their buying habits don't drastically affect the prices of the coins my wife or I might want to buy.
When I first heard of the coin registries, I thought they were good for the hobby, but after some of the stuff I've witnessed the last year especially, I'm not so sure if hobby is the prime motive here.
It might suprise some people to hear me say this but I hope nobody losses money on their 5 figure modern lincolns.
Les
The first coin I ever bought that was a pop 1/0 was a modern clad dime. It was a nice feeling to know that I had the only one (at that time), and I figured that was what Eliasberg and other collectors at the top of the coin/food chain felt like. I figured it was the closest I would ever come to having a coin that was "the one and only," since I believed that I would never own the finest Morgan Dollar, etc. That was good enough for me to plop down $500. I enjoyed every cent of it, whether I get that money back or not.
Some people play at a different level, and can easily put up $20,000 for the coin of their choosing. If I was at a certain point in my collection and wealth, I would probably pay it too.
This is a very valid part of coin collecting, and one of the reasons the Registry Set has become so popular. Will I have the finest set of Trade or Morgan Dollars? No, but I do have a couple of number one sets. I enjoy the competition as well as the coins themselves. Modern coins offer this opportunity to regular folks, who can't afford to spend $5 million on a set of Morgan Dollars. So let us have some fun with our Registry Sets and pop top moderns.
Personally, I collected Wheats as a kid like most everyone else here, and there is a lot of sentimental value in collecting the best grades you can of the coins you dreamt of as a child.
By the way, I have many more classics than moderns!
<< <i>Clad and Wordercoin:
You two fellows are prime examples of the mindset to which I referred to in the post that started this fracas. Quite obviously both you are doing quite well selling modern coins for good prices, and don’t want anyone to cast doubts on the markets that you are making.
What amazes me is why it is so easy for me to raise your ire. If I am an old fuddy-duddy and the village idiot, then why are you so concerned about my comments in this area? Why don’t you just ignore me?
. >>
I don't think you're a fuddy duddy or any specific type of idiot. I think you made up your
mind about moderns in 1965 and you have no intention of ever entertaining any new ideas,
opinions or facts on the subject.
You've even questioned my integrity before because you assume I sell high grade moderns.
There is absolutely no basis for you personal and market attacks. You were told at that time
that I have NEVER sold a high grade modern yet you persist in these false and derogatory
statements.
You haven't seen my ire up.
That is an absolutely fascinating concept and, for a change, a fresh approach to this tired old argument.
Russ, NCNE
alone piqued my interest and I must simply ask:
"Who are these people (the buyers)???"
I’ll put it this way. When I buy a coin as a collector, I buy it because I want to collect it. Period. Investment considerations do not play a role in which coins that I decide to add to my collection. It’s purely a matter of what I want to collect.
Financial considerations come into play when it comes to deciding if I am paying a fair price. Quite obviously only a fool or perhaps someone who has a terminal illness would pay $20,000 for something that he thinks will fall to $2,000 in a couple years. I’ve had instances when I stopped collecting certain things because I thought that the prices would come down. Most of time I have analyzed or guessed it right. Sometimes I have been wrong.
For example I have wanted a representative example a 1789 George Washington inaugural button for a long time. The right one came along a couple of years ago, but I did not pull the trigger because my hobby budget was running a little lean. Then the prices went ga-ga on them at auctions, and I figure that I’m now out on that one permanently. So it goes. I think that prices for that item, which were once a couple thousand for the most desirable variety and are now $5 or $6 grand will probably hold up. I don’t know that for sure, but really pristine ones with the original shank in place with the original fastener (not replaced with modern solder) are very scarce and real national heirlooms.
To make a long story short, I don’t have any confidence in the long term values that I see people paying for these super grade, super common date coins. Therefore I would not touch them for a fraction of those prices. I think I’m right, but I could be wrong too. That’s my opinion based on 40 years of fooling with this hobby.
As for your ethic I would say that you are in the same position as the stockbrokers who sold tech stocks to people at inflated prices. Is it ethical to sell them? Sure. That was the going market. Would it be ethical to tell people that they were are good buy when you personal opinion was that they were “junk?” The Securities and Exchange Commission didn’t think so, and that got some Wall Street firms in some hot water for that not long ago.
Would I sell these coins to my customers at these prices? Sure, but only after I told them that was the “current market;” they were overpriced IMO; and that they were on their own after the sale. After telling them that, I don’t think that I would make a sale.
And sure maybe your customers could make $40 grand on the four cents. More power to them! But the deal would not interest me unless I was selling those coins as an agent to a dealer because I have no faith in the value of these coins. I think that collectors a paying WAY too much for them.
As for the collector bug and holding when you should be selling, I know that bug very well. I should probably be selling all of my early coins right now and making bundle on them before the market comes back down to earth. Still I just don’t fell like living without those coins that it has taken me 30 years to collect. Besides all I’d get would be money, and a lot of that would get eaten up in taxes. I can earn money from other sources. Replacing those coins … well that’s another matter.
<< <i>Well, with respect to top pops, especially go ga grade modern coins that are common in grades one or 2 points lower, some people apparently feel that "it's different this time."
This is the same mindset that led many to invest in highly speculative internet and biotech stocks during their respective frenzies... a time when P/E and other fundamental measures of "value" were thrown out the window, and momentum and the greater fool theory ruled.
And the same thing is going on right now in the coin market. You have the people making the money from the hype, you have the people buying in late-cycle and are going to get left holding the bag, and you have the people on the sidelines, shaking their heads and being called "Cassandra" (later, everyone will wonder why they didn't see it coming, and say to these crusty old men, "you were right")
the more things change, the more they stay the same. >>
Baley: You assert that this is late cycle with regard to moderns at the current time. I have to
assume that this is based on the observation that the prices are moving up and have been for
some time. Isn't it logical that if it were really late cycle that the demand would be very high?
This is the way speculative markets get; prices increase unti more people start buying just to
capitalize on the increases which spur more people to buy which drives the price up in a specu-
lative spiral. Where's all the demand? The message boards are full of doubters and cranks who
slam moderns at most any opportunity. The coin shops for the main part won't carry moderns for
fear of offending the regulars or losing all their capital. This is actually a tiny niche market still
where one has to seek out one of the few dealers who specialize in this material. Rare modern
coins go for a tiny fraction of an equally rare classic. Condition rare moderns are priced lower still.
No one knows where these markets are going but this has NONE of the earmarks of the bubbles
that some of the cranks around here have lost their money in.
I'm waiting for someone who knows moderns to tell me they're overpriced and I'll start selling
when the fuddy duddys start buying. Until then I'm just hanging on for the ride.
I don't get paying five figure prices for top pop super gem common dates in any series, and that includes Morgans and other classics, where coins one or two points lower sell for 10% of the top pop price.
With rare coins, I can understand the electricity of owning say the finest of five known, especially if only one or two are mint state coins. But owning the finest of a zillion known, including hundreds or even thousands one point lower, just doesn't excite me. Its kind of like listening to the HSN guys hawking NGC silver and gold eagle bullion coins in 69 and 70 grades as existing only in small numbers.
I suppose, even if I had money to burn, that I would want to put that MS68 right next to an MS67 and I would have to conclude that the 68 looks 10 times better to pay a 10X multiple for it.
Now having said that, do any of the Lincoln afficionados here genuinely believe that the ms68 Lincoln is 100X nicer than a 67?
CG
<< <i>
Now having said that, do any of the Lincoln afficionados here genuinely believe that the ms68 Lincoln is 100X nicer than a 67?
>>
I don't know about Lincolns but can say that if it's a coin I've tried long and hard to upgrade
then one that's even a slight improvement can look a million times better.
<< <i> don't know about Lincolns but can say that if it's a coin I've tried long and hard to upgrade then one that's even a slight improvement can look a million times better. >>
Clad,
Your answer is merely rehtoircal and not responsive to an acutal situation. One would assume that a collector would work hard to upgrade a coin that was clearly defficient in some manner. Now when we enter the loft realm of 67 and 68 grades that should not be the case. In fact the difference between a 67 and a 68 is likely to be a matter of debate in many cases.
CG
Bill: Notwithstanding the fact that I am very confident the majority of my personal coin sales (in dollars of course) and purchases for the past several years have been for "classic coins" (i.e. so there is no real basis for your comment if it relates to "modern coins" equating to "tech stocks"), let me "run" with your comment and say the problem is no one truly knows where in the "cycle" they ever are - do they? In other words, while Microsoft "tech stock" is certainly 1/2 the price of where it was a couple years ago, it is still roughly 5x the price of where it was in 1994! So, when I sold those 4 cents for say $9k which are worth roughly $50k today, most folks who oppose modern coins called that sales price "inflated' even back then at $9k. Fair point?
Now, take this $22k 1940(p) cent (which I had no part in)
You would have suggested the coin was an "inflated tech stock" when it was worth $5000 just a couple years - right? Now, it is around a $20,000 coin. While we both might agree that in our hunble opinions it is now clearly an "inflated tech stock", of course, we do not know for sure the coin can not command $30,000 next year if it remains pop 1 (as it has for 16 years). Indeed, DHRC is offering a 1936 MINT STATE Walker this week for around $27,500 as the pop 1. If this coin had sold for $10,000 2 years ago - you might have believed it was an "inflated tech stock" then at that level and questioned the seller offering it for $10k. Interestingly, my buyers on those 4 cents stand to make a $41,000 return on only a $9,000 buy a couple years ago. Few pure classic plays I am aware of have returned that amount to buyers in such a short time. BUT, OF COURSE I HAD NO IDEA THE COINS WOULD DO THAT WELL, NOR DO I DISCUSS CLASSIC OR MODERN SALES IN TERMS OF "INVESTMENTS". Obviously, if I knew the modern MS68RD Lincolns would have performed that incredibly well, do you think I would have sold $50k in coins for $9k - who would have? And, that is exactly my point, I am not that audacious to "tell" the audience who reads this board that "classics are good" or "moderns are bad", etc. How could I - I have proven to everyone here that I have no friggin clue what classic or modern coins will do from year to year. If I was smart enough to know that, I wouldn't have sold those 4 cents (to name just a couple coins) - I would have simply been selling all along the "inflated, overpriced tech stocks" while keeping those juicy 4 cents to make an extra $41k a couple years later.
I also respect your opinion Bill and know you are far from a "fool". In a non-argumentative way, I just wanted to present to you some "food for thought". Very few seasoned, well-heeled, modern coin buyers, even the ones who are doing quite well at it year to year, come on the board and attack the buying habits of classic coin buyers - even the worst of them who lose their shirts with the classics on a regular basis
Wondercoin