Pitchers and the HOF..
olb31
Posts: 4,238 ✭✭✭✭✭
After reviewing the active win leaders in the MLB, only 2 have won 200 or more and probably will be the only 2 to do it. Verlander and Scherzer. We probably all agree that both will make the HOF. But what happens from here.
Jaime Moyer won 269, three more than Verlander has currently. And while Jaime was never an elite pitcher in any given year, his excellence throughout his career is very evident.
Tommy John won 288, he has the highest umber of wins of any pitcher not in the HOF (I am discounting the before and around 1900 pitchers that won 40 games a year).
Andy Pettitte won 256 games and was a stud in the Post Season.
These 3 are the only 3 with 250 wins or more and not in the HOF. It looks like a shoe in that all 3 will get in at some point to me. The mark went from 300 wins to auto HOF induction to 200 wins in just 15 years. Randy was the last to win game 300 in 2009. Now the pitchers can't even come close to winning 200 games.
Comments
i think verander could have gotten to 300, but he had the arm surgery and missed basically 2 seasons with that and covid. then seemed washed for over half of last season before having a strong last 6 weeks or so. this year he has not been able to pitch (although he is coming back this weekend) and i seems next year will be a wash with the strike/lockout looming.
he will not make it to 300 at this point
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I disagree on Jaime Moyer. While amassing stats over 25 seasons is quite an accomplishment, one all-star appearance and never finishing higher than 4th for the Cy Young, and a career ERA of 4.25 shouldn't make the hall, even in the Harold Baines participation award era. Wins are great, but the stat by itself shouldn't be the sole reason for someone making it in.
I think CC has the worst ERA of HOF pitchers at 3.74?
Of the three, Pettite has the most hardware to support enshrinement, but it will largely depend on the relaxing of opinion on PED use. Probably, he eventually gets in. John would have some merit, but would be behind Pettitte in my opinion. Finished 2nd twice in the Cy Young and 4x AS is good. No post-season hardware, though.
I think we've figured out that wins are not what it's cracked up to be anymore. Skenes started 32 games and went 10-10 with a 1.97 ERA last year. He gave up 4 or more runs 4 times in his 32 starts. He could have easily had 20 wins if he got any semblance of run support, but his dominance is evidenced by the combination of the other stats that tell the whole story. Thirty years ago, we would have looked at the pitching leader boards and downgraded him based on his lack of wins.
it is picking nits, but i think jack morris has the highest starter era in the hof with 3.90
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I'd love to see Tommy John make the HoF. He's sort of Kaat-type guy.
to be fair, I'm the guy who think the Hall should have about twice as many guys as it does though...
Yes he should be in the HOF. How many players have a surgery named after them?
2025 SEC bowl record 4-10
SEC bowl record vs BIG TEN last two years 2-8
Or underpants.
A yes for Tommy.
After all, how many people get to have a surgery named after them?
I always thought it was a crazy coincidence that Tommy John had Tommy John surgery and Lou Gehrig died of Lou Gehrig's disease.
If Trout keeps this up with his injury time outs he may have those TO's by other players named after him.
My wife has an entire list of things I do named after me. None of them seem to be very good...
I first heard the Gehrig joke in an episode of the Sopranos. Christopher said the joke and Tony was not that happy with him for doing it.
Active Starting Pitchers that I think are worthy of consideration.
Verlander (1st ballot) 9x Top 5 CY, 3x CY, MVP
Scherzer (1st ballot) 8x Top 5 CY, 3x CY
Gerrit Cole - 6x Top 5 CY, 1x CY
Chris Sale - 7x Top 5 CY, 1x CY
That is it. I think this will open the door for quite a few starters who were passed up for various reasons. Some of these pitchers are criminally overlooked simply because they did not meet the criteria (300 wins).
Non-Active
Dead Ball Era
Bob Caruthers
Jim McCormick
Smoky Joe Wood
Bobby Mathews
1920s -1950s
Allie Reynolds
Wilbur Cooper
Urban Shocker
Lon Warneke
Tommy Bridges
Babe Adams
Carl Mays
Billy Pierce
**Modern Era 1960s - **
Clayton Kershaw
Johan Santana
Zack Greinke
Tommy John
Vida Blue
David Cone
Bret Saberhagen
Felix Hernandez
Luis Tiant
Tim Hudson
Jerry Koosman
Mickey Lolich
Rick Reuschel
Kevin Brown
Curt Schilling
Bob Welch
Orel Hershiser
Ron Guidry
Andy Messersmith
JR Richard
^ While I despise him, Clayton Kershaw is a HOF 1st ballet lock
Urban Shocker - should get in based on his name alone.
A solid case can be made for Cone,Guidry, Tiant,Blue - I've not looked closely at the most of the rest.
The following will never get in nor do they deserve to :
Brown,Welch,Hudson,Messersmith - and again I've not looked closely at the most of the rest.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
so far schilling has been blackballed and brown i think is linked to steriods. so i do not think that those two are getting in anytime soon. saberhagen peak year at the start of his career then the end was just average. david cone should get a look at from the veterans committes. ron guidry and hershiser should also get a look at.
I only mentioned Guidry and Cone should be considered strongly, but yes i totally agree on Hersisher as well.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
manfred and cronies?
I am a big hall guy and think that Brown, cone, schilling should be in. Hershiser deserves serious consideration,
Kershaw is a lock
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
On the various socials, i find it interesting how many guys think Degrom is a lock. he is a great pitcher, but hasnt even thrown 2k innings yet.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Wins and innings levels of achievement can’t be used without adjustment because the opportunity has changed entirely since those figures of merit were fastened into our brains.
Starting pitchers throw around 5.5 innings per game now - 5.4 actually. Compared to 6.8 in 1975 and 6.1 in 1995.
Innings pitched per season follows a similar trajectory. It’s different because of injury rates. For pitchers who complete a season or by using extrapolation we have respective figures; 200 now vs 230 in 1995 vs 300 in 1975.
Pitchers won’t have the same figures now because utilization continues to evolve.
I think degrom needs a bit of a flourish to make his case.
Mark Buerhle was always a favorite of mine. 216 wins, 60 WAR. His only sub-200 inning season was 198 innings.
He was a human pitch clock before the days of pitch clocks. When he started, a game would only last 2+ hours in an era of 3+ hour average games.
if adjustments need to be made to make up for the lack of innings current pitchers are throwing, then likewise, adjustments need to be made to the rate stats modern pitchers who throw much fewer innings produce.
it stands to reason that rates will get much closer to the mean the more innings a pitcher throws. add another 2500 innings to the 1600 degrom has pitched to get to around 4k and that career ERA+ of 148 would be more like 115 or 120.
same could be said of Kershaw.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
DeGrom will make on First Ballot.
So will Zach Wheeler
He really wasn't.
3.81 ERA overall with a 4.06 in the World Series.
maybe, but he sure has a lot of work to do. he has thrown a total of 1600 career innings
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Andy Pettitte holds the record for the most playoff wins by a pitcher, with a total of 19 victories. He is followed by John Smoltz with 15 wins and Tom Glavine with 14 wins
19 vs 15 looks better than 19-11 vs 15-4. I agree that if I wanted to say Pettitte was the best that including the losses would shine a negative light on my silly argument.
And he’s got the juice so he’s never getting in the HOF as a borderliner.
While I do believe all the pitchers listed on my list warrant some kind of consideration on my list, I would personally push the case for the following players after reviewing the ones I originally considered.
Clayton Kershaw **- no need. automatic 1st ballot HOF
**Johan Santana - easy first ballot if his career was not shortened, his dominance should still get him in regardless.
Zack Greinke - career numbers are worthy
Curt Schilling **- possible steroid use, idiot, yet on the field, he is deserving
**Luis Tiant - Borderline guy, but I would put him in before TJ
Bret Saberhagen - career 1.141 WHIP is 13th best all-time since 1950. 2-time CY Young winner
Babe Adams - Dominant in his era. 5x WHIP leader
Bob Caruthers - 5'7" Shohei Ohtani of his era
Smoky Joe Wood - Legendary dominance as a pitcher. By age 25, he was 117-56 1.99 ERA, 1.080 WHIP. After injuring his arm and missing nearly 3 years, he came back as a hitter and hit .298 his final 5 seasons.
I want to add two names to this list. One started out as a pitcher while the other never played the position.
Lefty O'Doul and Cecil Travis. These two players, for many reasons, I believe, are two of the most worthy of being in the Hall of Fame.
I guess the criteria to get in depends on who you are versus what you accomplished. If 300 was the number, then all the 300's got in except for Clemens. If 250 is now the number (last 100 years), then Clemens TJ, Jamie Moyer and Andy Pettitte aren't in.
If they are the only 4 over 250 that haven't got in, not sure why they wouldn't get in. And going forward the new number appears to be 200. The less they pitch the more they get hurt, looks pretty simple to me. Dodgers have 7 pitchers out, at its like this every year.
regarding Smokey Joe and Babe Adams - who I do not know well - I would add Jim McCormick.
It would be great to see Tiant in the HoF.
Context of the time and era pitchers pitched will be more relevant when evaluating enshrinement. I can't see a world where Jamie Moyer gets in, just because he has more than 250 wins. I can see merit in Pettitte and TJ, but it won't be any time soon, if it happens.
Graterol has been on the IL for like 3 years.
Miller took a 106mph line drive to the head last season.
jaime has more wins than verlander right now and he didn't play on teams that cheated or good teams. im not a moyer fan but his accomplishments are pretty spectacular, not in comparison to clemens or ryan, but the other 99% of the pitchers that ever played. EVER PLAYED.
dodgers pitchers that have been hurt. treinan, stone, ryan, graterol, miller, snell, glasnow, diaz. -- its an all star team. something got to be up with all these injuries every year. not just this year
You're right. Giving up 522 HRs is an accomplishment that is better than 100% of pitchers who ever played.
Cubs pitching staff: Please hold our beers. [eyeroll]
I remember very well back in 2009 Zack Grienke was 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA and ERA+ 204 and there was a lot of talk whether 16 wins was enough to win the Cy Young. And this was the Royals, it was a minor miracle getting that many wins. But the voters made the right decision and he won it.
Now Skenes has won the Cy Young with 10 wins so now wins don’t matter at all and they won’t when today’s starting pitchers are eligible for the HOF. Skenes could get in with 150 wins if his excellent pitching continues. Same with Miz and the others who are dominating.
Nice post Darin. Skenes got the nod because his team is terrible. 10 wins on a competitive team probably won't be enough. I guess they figured if anyone can win 10 games on MLB worst team year in and year out thats an accomplishment.
my buddy who is a life long pirate fan said Skenes will pitch for about 4 years in pittsburgh and then go to the DOdgers. Where apparently winning is the main object.
As far as the HR's go for Moyer, i think he gave up the most in history for a pitcher. Pete rose made the most outs in history, I guess that means he sucked as a player huh. nolan ryan gave up the most walks in history. Albert pujols hit into the most double plays. cy young lost the most games ever.
so i guess the summation for the lone cal bear fan in the world is, if you play a lot seasons and games you suck. pujols ryan cy young and pete rose were just plain losers.
that is to balance the accumulation of wins for a pitcher who stretched his career... to put the number itself into perspective.
"life long pirate fan" Yarr!
is his name Steve?
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