I do math using a lot of anecdotal evidence and ratios. I see the Silver Institute calculating these little shortfalls and just laugh because if the shortfalls were so little the backed-up refineries would have bailed them out a long time ago.
MacIntosh estimates a 1.3 billion ounce shortfall which certainly seems far too high but it may be more reflective of the reality than the SI estimate. I'm figuring the actual shortfall is less than half that but the problem is that it will necessarily increase year after year and Americans can't keep the refineries backed up forever. In twelve years the shortfall will have eaten deep into the total above ground supply of silver unless mining is increased soon.
There are not viable alternatives. We go back to the stone age or we begin increasing mining to get us through a changing reality.
A couple years ago, Bix Wier documented that the Silver Institute didn't even include solar demand in its reporting, so there's simply no telling when the silver deficit becomes critical. Apparently, someone in Congress and/or the administration had reason to believe that silver is a critical material.
Silver mining output won't be increasing any time soon because of both underinvestment and delays in developing more mines.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
Silver mining output won't be increasing any time soon because of both underinvestment and delays in developing more mines.
This is the part that scares me a lot. It takes years just to find it and then accessing it can take many years as environmentalists et al strive to block them. They're not even looking yet!
Now days even very low grade ores can be processed but this is expensive and dirty.
All the easily recoverable silver in in US coin and the like. When you start seeing discounts evaporate on this stuff the price is going to soar. The refineries have to stay busy melting US coin for this to work out OK. When the discounts go away you'll know we are running low. I still think there's plenty for at least 10 or 12 years and this assumes continuing acceleration of demand from industry. Governments can be a wild card since they have unlimited funds to buy and can affect both supply and demand by many means.
We're going to need new mines and we must begin the process in the not distant future or things could look quite bleak in six or seven years.
@jmski52 said:
Silver mining output won't be increasing any time soon because of both underinvestment and delays in developing more mines.
This is the part that scares me a lot. It takes years just to find it and then accessing it can take many years as environmentalists et al strive to block them. They're not even looking yet!
Now days even very low grade ores can be processed but this is expensive and dirty.
All the easily recoverable silver in in US coin and the like. When you start seeing discounts evaporate on this stuff the price is going to soar. The refineries have to stay busy melting US coin for this to work out OK. When the discounts go away you'll know we are running low. I still think there's plenty for at least 10 or 12 years and this assumes continuing acceleration of demand from industry. Governments can be a wild card since they have unlimited funds to buy and can affect both supply and demand by many means.
We're going to need new mines and we must begin the process in the not distant future or things could look quite bleak in six or seven years.
Peripherally related, I think we've seen a LOT of general consumer silver shake out in the last year or so that'd been sitting dormant in closets, collections, etc etc. That can help soften availability issues with increased pricing, but it's sort of like a one-time plug. That's not perpetually there. If we see pricing/demand ramp back up, raiding the family heirlooms won't soften the increases...
Comments
I'm not sure what (if anything) to make of this but it is very interesting;
https://silverseek.com/article/dartboards-clogged-toilets-and-silver-institute-john-macintosh
"Silver has the ability to disappoint longer than you might have the ability to hold it"
Today's price action concerns me. I would expect a relief rally.
This is interesting;
https://silverseek.com/article/silver-institute-wonderland-compounded-errors
I do math using a lot of anecdotal evidence and ratios. I see the Silver Institute calculating these little shortfalls and just laugh because if the shortfalls were so little the backed-up refineries would have bailed them out a long time ago.
MacIntosh estimates a 1.3 billion ounce shortfall which certainly seems far too high but it may be more reflective of the reality than the SI estimate. I'm figuring the actual shortfall is less than half that but the problem is that it will necessarily increase year after year and Americans can't keep the refineries backed up forever. In twelve years the shortfall will have eaten deep into the total above ground supply of silver unless mining is increased soon.
There are not viable alternatives. We go back to the stone age or we begin increasing mining to get us through a changing reality.
A couple years ago, Bix Wier documented that the Silver Institute didn't even include solar demand in its reporting, so there's simply no telling when the silver deficit becomes critical. Apparently, someone in Congress and/or the administration had reason to believe that silver is a critical material.
Silver mining output won't be increasing any time soon because of both underinvestment and delays in developing more mines.
I knew it would happen.
This is the part that scares me a lot. It takes years just to find it and then accessing it can take many years as environmentalists et al strive to block them. They're not even looking yet!
Now days even very low grade ores can be processed but this is expensive and dirty.
All the easily recoverable silver in in US coin and the like. When you start seeing discounts evaporate on this stuff the price is going to soar. The refineries have to stay busy melting US coin for this to work out OK. When the discounts go away you'll know we are running low. I still think there's plenty for at least 10 or 12 years and this assumes continuing acceleration of demand from industry. Governments can be a wild card since they have unlimited funds to buy and can affect both supply and demand by many means.
We're going to need new mines and we must begin the process in the not distant future or things could look quite bleak in six or seven years.
Peripherally related, I think we've seen a LOT of general consumer silver shake out in the last year or so that'd been sitting dormant in closets, collections, etc etc. That can help soften availability issues with increased pricing, but it's sort of like a one-time plug. That's not perpetually there. If we see pricing/demand ramp back up, raiding the family heirlooms won't soften the increases...