Anyone else concerned that the metals run up might be more than demand?
bolivarshagnasty
Posts: 7,359 ✭✭✭✭✭
I’m no economist. What are your thoughts?
2
bolivarshagnasty
Posts: 7,359 ✭✭✭✭✭
Comments
No. While investor FOMO is definitely adding heat, the record-high premiums in Shanghai suggest the run-up is actually a desperate scramble for a physical metal that's simply running out in Western vaults.
There's not doubt that it is. Demand in 2025 was lower than 2024. Demand in 2026 is forecast to be lower than 2025. And, at the same time, silver went up 200% and the warehouses of every refiner in the world are full to the brim.
But why would that "concern" me?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Running out? The refiners can't refine it fast enough. That's not a shortage of material. Methinks it is a much more complicated situation including a lot of speculation, including in Shanghai.
Global demand has been DROPPING for the last 3 years per the Silver Institue:
https://silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
With silver now priced at more than $100 per troy ounce you can be sure that industrial users are looking very hard for alternatives.
Shortage in vaults and refiners can't refine it fast enough is saying the same thing.
It sure is interesting times we live in
I think that these run ups are insane. I hope those who are pushing these prices can withstand a huge hit. I also that this run up is not driven by borrowed money, excessive margins, which will make the crash worse.
no, it's not. The refiners can't refine it fast enough because there is an absolute glut of silver in the pipeline. There seems to be a lot of hoarding, even by governments (China), resulting in stuffing material into vaults. The refiners have had to increase output for 1000 oz Comex bars to settle accounts in London and Shanghai. This is not "demand" but hoarding. This is likely driven by two speculative goals: dollar fears and future demand for silver. There is, see chart, no current surge in demand for silver.
Now, I don't know where the top is. I don't know what the long term equilibrium price is. I don't know what future demand is. But I am very suspicious of a commodity when everyone is jumping on the same side of the trade. And, worse, people who have never bought silver or PMs before are showing up at all the local shops wanting to jump on the train because they've heard all the "to the moon!" hype. There's an old Wall Street saying, "when your cabbie is giving you stock tips, it's time to sell".
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
It's been happening for over a year. I posted the link on the other thread. A Chinese solar energy company just signed the first major contract for delivery of solar panels with mostly copper replacing silver.
That is, by the way, how economics is supposed to work. Price increases to balance supply and demand. But talk to anyone buying silver at $100 and they will tell you that demand is going to go parabolic and the price of silver with it. It sounds exactly like the old Wall Street Bets reddit over DOGE and Gamestock. Their motto was "to the moon!" Both DOGE and Gamestock came back to earth, but only after reaching ridiculously high valuations for a useless crypto that no one used and a nearly bankrupt company.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
They raised the margin requirements a couple months ago so hopefully it has limited the borrowing.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Silver is being driven by greed and fear based on the paper trading of commodity contracts. There is more of a technical trading analysis based on charts that purportedly evidence support and break out trends. Investors are playing both sides of the volatility movement which is exacerbated as long and short positions are covered. The volatility will continue until traders get bored and/or burned. No idea when that will happen.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Not at all. Based on inflation alone, the price should be closer to $200. Silver is finally starting to catch up to Gold. Long overdue.
Increased industrial demand for Silver along with global Central banks hoarding gold is the driving force here not FOMO. China export restrictions is fuel for the fire.
Perfect storm!🤑🤑🤑🤑
If I had a dollar for every time someone asked, "will silver get to $50 per ounce?
Who said that? Yo buddy you were wrong!
Should we be chasing now?
I'm out...
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
I don't know.
But I found this (long) article interesting.
And now I still don't know.
The five parts are:
Part I: The Physical Run – A Credit Crisis in the Paper Silver System
Part II: China’s Export Red Line – A Structural Cut in the Supply Chain
Part III: De‑Dollarization’s Second Front – Central Banks Discover Silver
Part IV: The Strategic Nuclear Restart – The Overlooked Silver Vacuum
Part V: Supply–Demand Data and Outlook
Conclusion: The Era of Silver’s Triple Identity
https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/commodities/metal/261487879-2026-silver-physical-squeeze-strategic-asset-tradingkey
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hYCRaWPlTIE Sophie Lloyd, guitar shred cover of Panama (Van Halen)
https://youtube.com/watch?v=dOV1VrDuUm4 Ted Nugent, Hibernation, Live 1976
RLJ 1958 - 2023
Yea, you could read those articles till you're blue in the face, problem is they are the same analysts that didn't see it coming.
That's based on taking the 1980 peak and adjusting for inflation. That is the epitome of cherrypicking (data), so it is the most coin related post in this thread. 🤣🤣🤣
Take the 1982 price and adjust for inflation and you get more like $30.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
“Hoarding” and “demand for silver” are not the correct terms if silver starts to be used as reserves for currency again.
I believe it’s on its way to $200.
Silver institute numbers showed drops in demand for coin and investment, not industrial. Industrial is still increasing. With electrification that will still increase regardless substitutes which there are none for 100% efficiency.
We know today individual coin and investment is picking up, add central banks as well internationally.
When things go sideways normally precious metals are not dumped on the market like stocks.
Worried, no precious metals are a store of value and a long term diversification hold.
Reduced trust in the global order and reliability of trading partners is triggering stockpiling, whether by government edict or smart business practices, the effect is the same; prices rise. You can see it in the charts. In 2025 it starts and then in Nov/Dec it really picks up.
Nobody is FOMOing into nickel, platinum, palladium, or copper.
Your rolls of 90% don't matter.
Blah blah blah refineries.
Trust isn't returning any time soon.
The dollar is underpinned by the next generations willingness to pay the national debt. 🫣
I should be out, but I'm too much of a collector. A lot of my gold coins are "small stuff," like gold dollars are $2.50 gold pieces, which still have a numismatic value.
Of course it's speculators and hot money. If they can make $$$ from a parabolic rise, they will.
If there were any leveraged players or shorts in trouble, we would have heard about it by now.
Could someone be hiding it ? Maybe....but people talk.
This could be non-leveraged buyers and hedged shorters making for a "balanced" blow-off.
While there is a shift to copper in the solar industry the total demand for silver in solar, automotive and electronics is expected to remain flat or grow modestly over the next five years while a “structural deficit” will continue over the next few years…
“ The persistent annual deficits have forced the market to draw down above-ground physical silver inventories from exchange vaults, which are now near multi-year or even decade lows.”
Is there a real structural deficit or is this hyperbole promoted by those that profit from higher prices?
I think Peasantry and Bolivarshagnaty are barking up the right tree.
Gold going up, Silver going up, U.S. Dollar going down.
Simple economics says the economy is doing badly or people think the economy is doing badly. Uncertainty is measurable, VIX is only at 15 when it spiked to 45 in March. So I would say the real world economic conditions are causing the prices of gold and silver to rise; not perception. Tariffs, trade wars, real wars, fractured alliances, all of these hurt trade.
Llamas and alpacas are camels. They aren't like camels, or related. They are camels. When was anyone going to tell me this?! How long had Bill Nye been holding out on us?
Perhaps not. But I think you can call it "central bank hoarding" and people would know what you mean. It is just sitting in a vault, after all.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Or the same analysts who have been saying the same thing for 30 years. There are always perma-bulls and perma-bears in the mix.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Please look at the link or photo I provided. The silver institute numbers INCLUDE INDUSTRIAL DEMAND which was forecast to be stable or dropping slightly in 2025. Thrifting and substitution are occurring and will accelerate if the price continues to rise.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
The dollar is pretty stable when you look at it over years or decades:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DX-Y.NYB/
There is a real structural deficit. But there are also huge piles of silver that can meet it - including 90% coins. Recycling also will increase if the price stays up.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Had I only listened to this guy.
Total industrial saw a very slight drop very recently, you're splitting hairs. The trends in electrification especially data centers and autos worldwide will show up moving forward. New battery tech includes silver in qty.
Coins and investment are booming and will swallow and or dwarf any deficit in solar or replacements.
.
No.
What is happening is a world-wide diversification out of the US Dollar and into tangible assets that can be bought with dollars. Have you looked at the Dollar Index recently ?
Governments "hoard" gold as a monetary asset, and have done so for many years.
Silver has also been getting some traction in this regard, but apparently not yet to the same status as gold.
But this elevated status, combined with silver's industrial usefulness, has propelled the price upwards.
.
.
Recently, the US Dollar has not been so stable.
.
Seeing a lot of postings with traditional arguments around demand , supply, proven reserves, mining capacity yet
something dramatic is happening that is not historical. Therefor I am not relying on any 'traditional' analysis to tell me what happens next because it didnt inform of this type of rise and will not tell you what happens next.
Loves me some shiny!
“Often wrong, but never in doubt.”
It's helpful to, for a moment, ignore silver exists at all. Look at the other metals. Gold, platinum, palladium, copper, nickel, indium, rhodium, zinc, etc. What the hell happened in Nov/Dec 2025?? It wasn't solar. It wasn't FOMO. It had nothing to do with stackers. It cannot be mitigated by melting forks and spoons.
Silver may be the leader of the pack but it's a pack for sure. The specifics of silver is too narrow a vein to try to understand the issue.
I do not know one way or another if silver is going to crash or continue galloping higher. I've read arguments from both sides and neither side has convinced me. That said, if "hoarding , even by governments" is true then I'd lean toward the gains being more sustainable than the bears think. After all, don't many governments "hoard" gold? A government hoarder can really change things as governments are typically price-insensitive buyers (and sellers).
While I agree this run up was to fast I think silver prices have been manipulated by big bank and other forces for the last 40+ years. I think the silver price should be about where it is now. I’d love to see it just stay here for a while until its new floor is established. We have a new silver ion battery going into production next year and 1 of the uses of these batteries will be used in EV. Each EV battery will have about 1 kilo in each. Only time will tell the true price of silver.
Mike
MIKE B.
Agree. If it were only silver we could focus on just the things that impact the price of silver. But you have all these other commodities going up drastically at the same time.
While I have seen many individuals stating that the solid state batteries (SSB) will use one kilogram of silver, it took me a tremendously long time to find one news article stating that the SSB will use silver. All other articles and press releases (from Samsung SDI and the company that owns the intellectual property to the SSB) have only stated that it is a solid state battery and uses sulfides. I also seem to recall one of the articles I read that made no mention of silver in the SSB being an IEEE publication. I have a very uneasy feeling about all this talk about a lot of silver being used in SSBs as it feels like a lot of the kind of hype I saw in 2011.
Furthemore, the Samsung SSB batteries are scheduled to be delivered to BMW late this year for BMW to test. If all goes well, no cars using these SSBs will be sold until 2027 at the earliest. Along the way, manufacturing difficulties and BMW's own integration efforts could introduce substantial delays until an SSB-powered EV car is widely commercially available.
Another article I read made a fairly interesting prediction. It predicted that SSBs would be used primarily in high-end, expensive EV cars (due to the high cost of the SSB) while less expensive EV cars would continue using wet electrolyte batteries which are being driven down in cost by China's own research and development into materials. Even if all of the claims about how much silver a SSB uses are accurate, the idea that it will only be used in high-end EV cars greatly limits the number of SSB batteries (and thus kilograms of silver) that will be needed. It doesn't seem a likely prospect that a yearly demand of one million SSBs that use one kilogram of silver is going to materialize anytime soon. China's own EV car market is most likely going to use the less expensive battery technologies that don't require silver.
But if the Samsung marketing material is correct, a full charge in under 10 minutes is a big plus for the larger, heavier cars. Below is what they are reporting for charging these cars at home and their mileage range.
Many, many new technologies get put into high end products first as the exorbitant costs are easier to cover.
I know nothing about the refining process. What would be an accurate estimate for refining to fill that deficit?
Are we at the front end of a years long deficit or is this going to be a flash in the pan problem?
Here's what I know: If I buy it then it will go down and if I don't then it will go up.
And I'm undecided
I do not deny any of the remarkable properties claimed of the SSBs (very fast charging times, substantially greater energy density than current batteries, supposedly no risk of spontaneous combustion). I don't know enough about the science behind it to understand if it's true or not but there is no denying that, ignoring cost, these things are absolutely amazing and would make an EV car very, very attractive to people who would otherwise never consider buying an EV car.
The problem is the high cost of materials which will never get less expensive with more units sold. New technologies typically cost more money initially as the R&D costs are paid off first by wealthier customers and then everyday customers as automation and improving processes drives down the cost of manufacturing the new technologies.
It seems unlikely, in my opinion, that silver's cost is going to get lower as more silver is sold and consumed. If the one kilogram per SSB is true and silver is $100/ozt, that's $3,200 in silver costs alone for the battery.
Nobody is buying physical gutter at the current paper spot prices. We have total disconnect and its paper gutter for the win. The pop of this bubble is going to be spectacular.🍿RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
When available supply goes down and demand goes up you get parabolic price rises.
Supply is likely not going to grow, it will take reduced demand to bring price down. China and India are the big players on the demand side of the equation. At the moment price is also being fueled by speculative players.
Perfect storm for silver, we waited patiently for years. COMEX delivery situation come mid-march may throw more gasoline on the bonfire.
In the event of a large decline, physical holders rightly fear the the loss caused by delays in converting their silver to cash. My advice is to convert it to cash now (current prices should give you a nice profit) and place the proceeds in a silver related ETF account where your "silver" can be quickly disposed of with the push of a button when the time comes. To know the time has come requires one to closely monitor the spot price.
My choice for a silver ETF would be the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV). ETFs trade just like stocks. Those without a brokerage account will find Robinhood easy to establish and easy to use. I also enjoy a brokerage account with SoFi. Those that have always shunned paper silver should recognize the important opportunity it now provides.
If you play your cards right, cash in on the ETF once you believe silver is crashing, you can buy back all your metal and some, at a discounted price.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
just about done liquidating all the stupid silver stuff I should have never bought.
HODL for JM bars, Engelhard bars, ASE, Kooks ect, pre-33 PCGS gold. (and that AG goes too if spot $150+)
Paper silver has been good to me the last 3 months as well.
I am a silver bull from way back but no way this does not correct so will ride ZSL down.
When its over I think a new floor of around $60.
Stay Shiny my friends!
Loves me some shiny!
“Often wrong, but never in doubt.”