$250 silver by the end of 2026 ?
ScarsdaleCoin
Posts: 5,425 ✭✭✭✭✭
What do you think?
Jon Lerner - Scarsdale Coin - www.CoinHelp.com
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ScarsdaleCoin
Posts: 5,425 ✭✭✭✭✭
Comments
Why not!?!
I think this belongs in the precious metals forum.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
Do you really want dollars upon which you depend to buy food and shelter to be worth crap? High precious medal prices are not a win-win.
If that happens 90+ percent of classic U.S. coinage and commemoratives are toast. Gold won’t be far behind. The hobby would look very different. For instance superb gem common date Morgan dollars would be more common than anything graded below. Some 20th century common dates would cease to exist or may only be available in MS67+ or MS68.
That ship has sailed. If a Ponzi scheme electronic token (e.g. Bitcoin) is worth $80k+, we’re already screwed.
Silver's rapid rise in a little over a year, from $20 to $109, goes beyond the financial aspect. A metal with extreme thermal transfer and high conductivity (second only to gold which adds corrosion resistance), it's use in the manufacturing sector is the greatest reason. Electronic components vital to data centers, EV's and the associated power grid, large scale crypto mines, AI and so on. So one of two things would need to happen for the market to stabilize. These and other industries to slow or the point where alternatives would be considered to reduce cost. $250 an ounce? There was a time when $100 was laughable if not unthinkable.
$250 on July 4th.
and gold to 10,000
As long a chaos reigns the sky is the limit. When reason returns ... watch out below!
I agree with with @BillJones. Yah I would cheer the hundreds of ounces in my collection but mourn my 401k
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
Holy mackerel!!!!
Coins are on a quarter century cycle so it will take many years to melt that many. They can't get melted until they are sold.
It will take a couple years of the refineries running full tilt just to catch up with what will be melted at $110 / Ot.
Before anyone states the obvious.....
Yes all of my prior silver sales were below current spot but I have seen too many parabolic price spikes not to expect a matching parabolic decline. How how high will price spike get? I do not know but a blow out top such as a one day $10+ rise in price would be something to watch for.........
Right now there is not a shortage of silver......... simply a shortage of smelting capacity to convert 90% coins, sterling etc. into the commonly traded 100 and 1000 oz bars.
There are billions of ounces above ground subject to smelting..........Just consider there were around 3/4 of a billion 1964 Kennedy halves alone...........
You want a sign we are close to the top?
True story......
This past Friday a 77 Y.O. widowed lady I know through prior workplace mentioned she was excited her silver bar had risen in price and she was waiting for her copper to arrive.
Yes a 77 Y.O. widow is waiting for her raw copper ingot to arrive...................Now if that doesn't scare you then heck....mortgage the house......What could go wrong?
how many tons did she stack?
If our money was backed by gold and silver like the founding fathers intended our it would be worth more than crap.
Overland Trail Collection Showcase
Dahlonega Type Set-2008 PCGS Best Exhibited Set
Or we would be in a gigantic depression...
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Yet global demand has been decreasing during the rise...
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I'm expecting a major downward correction any day now which is why I stopped buying at these insane inflated prices.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
As an old man, I will freely admit that I don’t understand Bit Coin, but the U.S. economy is a lot more than “a Ponzi Scheme.” It is fairly strong with some concerning issues over the national debt.
The commodity theory of money is based on the outmoded and disproven idea that money derives its value from its metal content. It doesn’t. It’s based upon what money can buy and the legal system which supports it. All competent economists, whatever their political stripe, will tell you that.
Let’s put it this way. Would you spend a silver dime for ten cents or a half eagle for $5? Of course you won’t. The value of gold and silver is one thing, and the value of a dollar is another.
Having been a collector in the late 1970s and 1980, I have witnessed run ups in gold and silver before. Back then, there was a major correction, and some of those who were “long” in precious metals lost their shirts with the Hunt Brothers leading the way. They were very long with futures contracts for silver based on highly leveraged margins (borrowed money). When the cash came, they went from billionaires to bankruptcy.
There will be a correction for gold and silver. I can’t tell you when, but it will happen. The industrial uses for those metals are attractive, but if the prices get too high, alternatives will be invented, or the end uses will cut their demand. When that happens, the prices will drop. When correction comes, you will have a hard time selling you holdings until the base price is reached.
And the economy would be a fraction of the size it is today because it would have been hamstrung by an insufficient supply of money. The money supply needs to grow with the size of the economy. It should not be limited by the stocks of gold and silver available.
Numismatics often suffer during times of instability, as the hobby relies on a huge knowledge base and all the work by some of the sharpest eyes and minds who've dedicated their lives to high end qualitative studies.
Even with silver surging up and over $100, the demand for certified coins has not necessarily surged. Good investment sem-numismatic coins with low risk are being sought out, such as MS/PR70 certified coins.
People forget that deflationary events ("panics") were frequent when we were on the gold standard.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
As prices rise and the run of prices continues, refineries will expand their capacity.
I suppose I may be underestimating the amount of above ground silver. With 250 million ounces of in '64 kennedys alone but all the remaining US 90% silver dimes don't add up to so much more than this.
But those half dollars and no other coin can be melted until it is sold to a coin shop or refinery. And even then some will be siphoned off by people.
There is certainly no shortage of silver at this time and if we avoid panic this will be true for several years at least, probably.
Yes, part of the problem which started the Panic of 1893 started with a run on the government's gold supply because the misguided Sherman Silver Purchase Act.
I'm a reasonably competent economist and don't agree with you at all.
Economic growth does not require a growing quantity of money; it requires rising productivity. When output increases while the money supply remains stable, prices simply fall. The same units of money represent more goods and services.
Falling prices caused by productivity are a sign of progress, not decline. We already accept this logic in individual markets, especially in technology, where better products often cost less over time. A gold standard applies the same principle more broadly.
What has clearly failed is money that can be endlessly created by the printing press or its electronic equivalent. Are we really better off with a dollar that has lost 96% of its purchasing power since we went off the gold standard? I don’t think so.
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Just about every panic you can name has been caused by misguided government policies. The gold standard is just a convenient scapegoat.
oh no!
$25 silver by the end of 2026?
ok. things are better! 250 silver by 2026?
The next big industrial use of silver is slated to start in 2027 and it’s a South Korea company called
Samsung. It has created a silver ion battery a single cell uses 5 grams of silver each and an EV battery uses 1000 grams or 1 kilo. The battery is in testing right now but they are going into full production next year. The company was very worried about getting enough silver so they came to an agreement with a mining company to take every ounce of silver for the next three years. Silver has to go up because it’s the only way industry will be able to get people to sell some of those 3 billion ounces of above ground silver. The EV battery is Supposed to go 900 kilometers between charges and have a 9 minute full charge. I think silver will have some corrections but the new floor will be much higher than it used to. I almost forgot now people are starting to add Gold and silver into their investments. That’s the 1 that can blow this thing to the moon.
JMHO,
Mike
MIKE B.
Well, the alternative would be a dollar that maintained 100% of its purchasing power.....with a standard of living about 50% less.
Yes, I think we are MUCH better off with a little inflation (~3%) over the last 112 years and a per-capita GDP of about $90,000 instead of $55,000.
Interesting. Please back up your assertion that our standard of living would be lower just because our money is backed by a well-regarded commodity instead of the IOU of a spendthrift government. Include the fact that said spendthrift government has saddled each citizen with an annual interest cost of $4,000 (and rising rapidly) to fund his/her share of a $38 trillion national debt.
As an economist you must know that the prices for most goods are “sticky downward.” Prices are not nearly as flexible as you make them out to be. Furthermore, when producers improve products, they usually expect to change more to recover their research and development costs. Freezing the money supply would stifle economic growth innovation and growth.
Your position runs against the theories of the late Milton Friedman, who headed the school of conservative economic thought. Friedman stated that the Keynesian concept that using taxes and government spending to regulate the economy were invalid because it took too long for their effects to fix problems with the system, or that those policies were often misguided. Friedman supported growing the money supply as the economy grew.
Maintaining the money supply at a constant level would be one of the most restrictive economic policies imaginable. The only relief from a money supply shortage would be increases in the velocity (increasing the number of times a dollar is spent in a year) to make up for the difference. That is not a reasonable assumption.
First, each cotizen isnt saddled with $4000 in Govt debt. We collect interest on that debt via our 401k, brokerage accts, treasury direct accts, etc, not pay it.
Second....what do you think the economy would look like if you removed the $38 trillion of excessive spending and investment and its multiplier effect that the Govt bestowed upon us. Where would asset prices be? Where would incomes be. Goldfingers estimate of a 55k per capita GDP is probably way too high.
Your wealth is directly tied to that $38 trillion debt pile. It has been a massive transfer of wealth from the public sector(Govt), to the private sector(you and me).
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
No, most of that $38 trillion is wealth destruction and currency dilution. We don't have much to show for it.
"We" don't collect interest on that debt, only those who own treasury bonds and notes do. Many of them are governments and citizens of other countries. Who do you think pays the interest that "we" collect? The "public sector(Govt)" can only pay by taxation or further money printing. A gold standard would avoid many of these issues.
True, but a gold standard doesn't freeze the money supply. All the gold coins minted between 1792 and 1933 increased the money supply as the demand for money increased.
The gold coins represented a minority of the money that was in circulation. Most of it was paper after the Civil War.
Even before the Civil War most of it was paper, but too much of it was unreliable privately issued bank notes. That was the basis arguments and slogans on the Hard Times tokens of the period. Using the slogans there was “credit current” with a tranquil sailing ship while the “Metallic Currency” was on the rocks.
True, but nearly all of that paper after the Civil War was backed by and easily redeemable in gold. Even the "unbacked" U.S. notes issued to finance the Civil War became redeemable in gold in 1879. Gold was the anchor supporting all other forms of money during a time when industrialization required a rapid expansion of the money supply. Currency in circulation increased by a factor of 10 between 1879 and the abandonment of the gold standard in 1933, and all of it was backed by gold, including newly minted gold coins.
As collectors, if you haven’t already done a hard assessment of the Numidmatic value of your collection then now might be a good time to do that. It served me to at least know the difference between that and the metal value. Most coins are safe and won’t be melted but all the Moderns and what we affectionately know as “ Dreck” are in danger.
Who cares if all the rolls get melted?? I know I don’t. Who cares if all those AU Morgan and Peace Dollars get melted?? I know I don’t. The same goes for lots of other stuff.
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety," --- Benjamin Franklin
I would suggest you get out and about if you dont think we have much to show for it.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You and I and 200 million other Americans collect that interest in the funds we hold in our brokerage accounts, IRA, 401k, 403b, 457, money markets etc. Heck, Berkshire has $350 billion of it. Thats more than most countries. Those interest payments are mostly covered by "money printing", not taxes. The Govt create it, the Govt give it away.
Americans and American companies are the largest holders of US debt.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Sure...remember the mop-up of Bear Stearns in March 2008 ? Cost about $30 billion in guarantees (the Fed actually MADE $1 BB but let's assume worst-case they lost what they guaranteed). 6 months later, they let Lehman Bros. fail....would have cost about the same....Moral Hazard talk...blah blah blah....cost the government and the economy a few trillion in lost output.
So....different actions have different consequences. Would have been better to go back in time and give Lehman Bros $20 billion or so...wipe out the equity holders...and restructure.
Now, back to gold....the problem with holding the price level flat (which WAS the case from 1800-1910) is the cost in terms of LOST OUTPUT (Lehman Bros !!) exceeds the alternative cost of bank assistance ("lender of last resort") and inflation. This is because prices are sticky to the downside...they do NOT adjust as you would expect from Micro or Macroeconomics 101....failure of prices and wages to adjust to the proper level quickly and efficiently results in lost output....and SYSTEMIC RISK (which means more than a linear calculation would indicate) as fault lines cascade through the system.
Read "Golden Fetters" for a great explanation of how the old Gold Standard worked but why it was impractical after WW I.
The Grant administration could not back its paper money with gold until about 1876. After that, there was a promise, but I would guarantee you that if there had been a run on the government to redeem the outstanding paper with gold, the government would have run out of gold. That was the great fear which helped to stoke the Panic of 1893. That fear had Grover Cleveland, "making a deal with the devil" in the opinion of the silver lobby when he got the loans from J.P. Morgan.
The Gold Standard is a 19th century relic which has been retired to its proper place.
This place is utterly bonkers, I knew this was the right place to come for unhinged, crazy, well thought out and well founded posts
fun read.
Really, I used to collect years ago and got away from it, but ... I have LOTS of crap silver because who doesn't love crown sized world stuff? funny to think there's now a SUPER EASY offramp for all my "junk" I bought for over it's value because I was just curious to have it in the junque box.
Now, all my moderate 2010 "collectors" coins have more value to melt than to find a good buyer.... so off to the smelter with anything not obviously valuable. I agree with the older opinions that this will have a profound affect on the "entry level numismatic" silver/gold.
Industries will look to develop the use of other materials but if you need silver to keep production lines going today you pay whatever you have to pay to get it today.
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This is like George Orwell's "1984" propaganda:
Debt = Freedom
and
"Big Brother" (government) bestows upon you all that you need.
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Those interest payments are mostly covered by "money printing", not taxes. The Govt create it, the Govt give it away.
The government "creates" money by issuing more debt, leading to even higher interest payments. If "money printing" is a good thing with no bad consequences, why not print 10 times or 100 times the amount being printed now? Bad money drives out good, and the good money (gold) is now $5000 per ounce instead of $20.
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I guess that's why central banks everywhere are rushing to acquire gold at any price.
The Panic of 1893 was caused by the Treasury issuing more paper money than it had actual gold in its vaults. That was not the fault of the gold standard. Also, the Treasury had the legal option (and the capability) of redeeming its paper money in silver, but chose not to do so.