What is a PR65 1838-O half worth? Can’t remember the last gem example to sell. Well, historically near what a gem 1884 trade dollar has realized. And one of those sold recently for around $1M. So I’d assign a value of $800,000
@tradedollarnut said:
What is a PR65 1838-O half worth? Can’t remember the last gem example to sell. Well, historically near what a gem 1884 trade dollar has realized. And one of those sold recently for around $1M. So I’d assign a value of $800,000
😂😂😂 THIS is the logic that underpins high end coin valuations?!? Yikes
Imagine your reasoning being audited or you being deposed over this. It's such thin gruel.
@MasonG said:
The PCGS and CAC price guides appear to be free. How much do you suppose people would be willing to pay for a guide that's more accurate? Do you suppose there'd be enough people willing to pay that someone would consider investing the time and resources to create such a price guide?
Hi - Interesting point. I guess you are saying that price guides for collectors are free so you can't complain if there are errors or bad assumptions. These publishers of 3rd party price guides may not be willing to invest more money into the price guides. Personally, I think that all of the services that publish price guides try their absolute best to get prices right and their interest is to give collectors and others the best available information to make the proper decisions. I would like publishers to provide collectors more transparency into how prices are developed and when prices are changed to understand why.
@MasonG said:
The PCGS and CAC price guides appear to be free. How much do you suppose people would be willing to pay for a guide that's more accurate? Do you suppose there'd be enough people willing to pay that someone would consider investing the time and resources to create such a price guide?
Hi - Interesting point. I guess you are saying that price guides for collectors are free so you can't complain if there are errors or bad assumptions. These publishers of 3rd party price guides may not be willing to invest more money into the price guides. Personally, I think that all of the services that publish price guides try their absolute best to get prices right and their interest is to give collectors and others the best available information to make the proper decisions. I would like publishers to provide collectors more transparency into how prices are developed and when prices are changed to understand why.
I think GS/ @JohnF tries his absolute best to get pricing right. I've spoken with him and worked with him on trying to get pricing right for a very thinly traded type that I collect and he and his team were fantastic.
If you think PCGS is trying its absolute best to do ANYTHING right, particularly a free price guide, you haven't been paying attention.
@EastonCollection said:
Hi - Interesting point. I guess you are saying that price guides for collectors are free so you can't complain if there are errors or bad assumptions.
No, I'm not saying you can't complain.
@lermish said:
If you think PCGS is trying its absolute best to do ANYTHING right, particularly a free price guide, you haven't been paying attention.
I didn't say that, either. I did ask a couple of questions, though- does anybody have any thoughts on them:
How much do you suppose people would be willing to pay for a guide that's more accurate? Do you suppose there'd be enough people willing to pay that someone would consider investing the time and resources to create such a price guide?
@MasonG said:
The PCGS and CAC price guides appear to be free. How much do you suppose people would be willing to pay for a guide that's more accurate? Do you suppose there'd be enough people willing to pay that someone would consider investing the time and resources to create such a price guide?
Actually, Mark Ferguson was literally “A Man Ahead of His Time”. He did just as you suggest! Around 2016, he created and published monthly via subscription at a very reasonable price, a print “CAC Market Values”. He provided a somewhat narrow range for each entry, based on auction sales. I believe if there were no current/recent sales, he would look at recent sales of “similarly” valued dates. Yes, we could each do research and come up with similar results, but I found this to be a big time saver, and I subscribed right away. I even volunteered and wrote a few articles about collecting CAC stickered coins that he included. Each issue had a couple of interesting articles.
After a while, he also included a few values for plus grades, if he felt there was sufficient supporting data! Yes, he recognized that CAC says the CAC stickered plus coins are only solid at that whole grade, and they don’t say if it’s solid as a plus or not. But he also recognized “The Market” valued plus coins with stickers higher than whole grade coins with stickers.
As best as I recall, he ceased publication after three or four years, just shortly before the demand for CAC stickered coins grew significantly, like it is today. It has not always been this way. Years ago, the premium for CAC stickered coins over their non-stickered counterparts was not as great as it is today due to increased demand).
Steve
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!!!
@Peasantry said:
😂😂😂 THIS is the logic that underpins high end coin valuations?!? Yikes
If you don't have past sales to look at and you want an estimate of value, what else would you propose?
@Peasantry said:
Imagine your reasoning being audited or you being deposed over this. It's such thin gruel.
What's wrong with his reasoning? If past sales data is not there, it's not there. How does just throwing up your hands over it solve the problem?
Look to GAAP principles, auditing, appraising industry, prediction models, finance, big data, etc and develop a defensible standard for valuations with data and a thought process for determining value when there's little to no data. Software. A model. Something tangible.
Do NOT apply the same terminology to things based off data and those based off conjecture.
The main issue with his reasoning is that it's his. Is it written down anywhere? Replicatable? Generally accepted? What frequency does he update his number? Who approves changes to his logic? Are those changes transparent to the users and released at the speed of relevance? Is his logic consistently applied?
Oh my god, dude -I’m simply giving you an example of how one might value a coin that hasn’t been sold in recent times. Gather those estimates and a reasonable price guide could be created.
@EastonCollection said:
Hi - Interesting point. I guess you are saying that price guides for collectors are free so you can't complain if there are errors or bad assumptions. @lermish said:
If you think PCGS is trying its absolute best to do ANYTHING right, particularly a free price guide, you haven't been paying attention.
I didn't say that, either. I did ask a couple of questions, though- does anybody have any thoughts on them:
I was responding to @EastonCollection when he said: Personally, I think that all of the services that publish price guides try their absolute best to get prices right and their interest is to give collectors and others the best available information to make the proper decisions.
@Peasantry said:
The main issue with his reasoning is that it's his. Is it written down anywhere? Replicatable? Generally accepted? What frequency does he update his number? Who approves changes to his logic? Are those changes transparent to the users and released at the speed of relevance? Is his logic consistently applied?
Ok, then- ignore his reasoning. Nobody says you have to agree with it, or a price guide.
@MasonG said:
The PCGS and CAC price guides appear to be free. How much do you suppose people would be willing to pay for a guide that's more accurate? Do you suppose there'd be enough people willing to pay that someone would consider investing the time and resources to create such a price guide?
You mean like Greysheet?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@MasonG said:
The PCGS and CAC price guides appear to be free. How much do you suppose people would be willing to pay for a guide that's more accurate? Do you suppose there'd be enough people willing to pay that someone would consider investing the time and resources to create such a price guide?
You mean like Greysheet?
Yeah. Except there seems to be some dissatisfaction with their pricing opinions in some cases, too. So- it would have to be someone who does more in-depth research on pricing than Greysheet does. How much more would it cost for something like that? Are there enough people who would pay for it?
Just to be clear - My goal in this thread is not to bash anyone or any publisher of price guides. They do an excellent job and have great team of talented people working there. My goal is to prevent as many errors in the price guide, price coins truly based on what a willing buyer and seller will want to complete a transaction and when prices are changed provide the readers with some commentary as to why. Obviously, a 1884 trade dollar is impossible to price especially not knowing who is interested at the time its being offered. Lastly, even though each price service develops pricing using different financial models, they shouldn't be so far apart. Currently, many dealers and experienced collectors are making comments so they can't all be wrong. Again, all I am asking is to address these dealers and collectors concerns.
@EastonCollection said:
and when prices are changed provide the readers with some commentary as to why.
Honestly, not trying to give you a hard time here, but I took a quick look at an old Greysheet and there must be over a thousand price changes, plus and minus. Are they expected to provide commentary on them all?
@EastonCollection said:
Hi - Interesting point. I guess you are saying that price guides for collectors are free so you can't complain if there are errors or bad assumptions.
No, I'm not saying you can't complain.
@lermish said:
If you think PCGS is trying its absolute best to do ANYTHING right, particularly a free price guide, you haven't been paying attention.
I didn't say that, either. I did ask a couple of questions, though- does anybody have any thoughts on them:
How much do you suppose people would be willing to pay for a guide that's more accurate? Do you suppose there'd be enough people willing to pay that someone would consider investing the time and resources to create such a price guide?
My guess is no. Plenty would stick to the free guides, a lot consider their own pricing superior to ANY guide and the rest complain about ANY guide
@MasonG said:
The PCGS and CAC price guides appear to be free. How much do you suppose people would be willing to pay for a guide that's more accurate? Do you suppose there'd be enough people willing to pay that someone would consider investing the time and resources to create such a price guide?
You mean like Greysheet?
Yeah. Except there seems to be some dissatisfaction with their pricing opinions in some cases, too. So- it would have to be someone who does more in-depth research on pricing than Greysheet does. How much more would it cost for something like that? Are there enough people who would pay for it?
I just mention Greysheet because people are always complaining about the price. It is also probably the best guide out there, representing actual offers to buy on the exchange.
It is IMPOSSIBLE for any guide to mvhdss@rit.edu what a coin will bring after 5 years out of the market. You can't analyze data that doesn't exist.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@EastonCollection said:
and when prices are changed provide the readers with some commentary as to why.
Honestly, not trying to give you a hard time here, but I took a quick look at an old Greysheet and there must be over a thousand price changes, plus and minus. Are they expected to provide commentary on them all?
Not only that, THEY DON'T CHANGE THEM BY HAND. The OP still acts like a room full of experts are pricing every coin by hand. An algorithm crunches the numbers and spits out a price. You could then analyze it and say "the price dropped due to recent auction results in the database", but what does that tell you? And to your earlier point, how much is the OP willing to pay for a price guide that gives him useless commentary?
In the end, the coin hits the block and people then decide what they want to pay for it. If the guide is low, it sells for over. If the guide is high, it sells for under. The only price that ever matters is the sale price.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Not only that, THEY DON'T CHANGE THEM BY HAND. The OP still acts like a room full of experts are pricing every coin by hand. An algorithm crunches the numbers and spits out a price. You could then analyze it and say "the price dropped due to recent auction results in the database", but what does that tell you? And to your earlier point, how much is the OP willing to pay for a price guide that gives him useless commentary?
This is inaccurate. John at GS, when presented with auction records, has made adjustments "by hand". I know this because he's talked about it on message boards and in video interviews.
Seated Half Society member #38
"She comes out of the sun in a silk dress, running like a water color in the rain...."
Not only that, THEY DON'T CHANGE THEM BY HAND. The OP still acts like a room full of experts are pricing every coin by hand. An algorithm crunches the numbers and spits out a price. You could then analyze it and say "the price dropped due to recent auction results in the database", but what does that tell you? And to your earlier point, how much is the OP willing to pay for a price guide that gives him useless commentary?
This is inaccurate. John at GS, when presented with auction records, has made adjustments "by hand". I know this because he's talked about it on message boards and in video interviews.
It IS accurate. They do make adjustments. But the vast majority of pricing is done by statistics. They make adjustments when necessary but 99% of pricing is algorithmic.
You really think they sit their and fill out the thousands of fields by hand?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Not only that, THEY DON'T CHANGE THEM BY HAND. The OP still acts like a room full of experts are pricing every coin by hand. An algorithm crunches the numbers and spits out a price. You could then analyze it and say "the price dropped due to recent auction results in the database", but what does that tell you? And to your earlier point, how much is the OP willing to pay for a price guide that gives him useless commentary?
This is inaccurate. John at GS, when presented with auction records, has made adjustments "by hand". I know this because he's talked about it on message boards and in video interviews.
It IS accurate. They do make adjustments. But the vast majority of pricing is done by statistics. They make adjustments when necessary but 99% of pricing is algorithmic.
You really think they sit their and fill out the thousands of fields by hand?
So, you agree that your statement "THEY DON'T CHANGE THEM BY HAND" is inaccurate. I never said that they adjust thousands by hand.
Seated Half Society member #38
"She comes out of the sun in a silk dress, running like a water color in the rain...."
Not only that, THEY DON'T CHANGE THEM BY HAND. The OP still acts like a room full of experts are pricing every coin by hand. An algorithm crunches the numbers and spits out a price. You could then analyze it and say "the price dropped due to recent auction results in the database", but what does that tell you? And to your earlier point, how much is the OP willing to pay for a price guide that gives him useless commentary?
This is inaccurate. John at GS, when presented with auction records, has made adjustments "by hand". I know this because he's talked about it on message boards and in video interviews.
It IS accurate. They do make adjustments. But the vast majority of pricing is done by statistics. They make adjustments when necessary but 99% of pricing is algorithmic.
You really think they sit their and fill out the thousands of fields by hand?
So, you agree that your statement "THEY DON'T CHANGE THEM BY HAND" is inaccurate. I never said that they adjust thousands by hand.
No. I don't. You are pulling that out of context. There is not a "room full of experts...pricing every coin by hand" which is the context. By labeling my comment as inaccurate, the implication is that there is...
So, if we're grading comments, mine is 99% accurate and yours is 1%. 😁
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I'm just giving you a taste of your medicine. Having observed your comments over the years, you often have an exacting nature especially when you correct others that is, in my opinion, unnecessary. While I agree generally with the contributions you make on the board, this trait of yours is unflattering.
Seated Half Society member #38
"She comes out of the sun in a silk dress, running like a water color in the rain...."
@Catbert said:
I'm just giving you a taste of your medicine. Having observed your comments over the years, you often have an exacting nature especially when you correct others that is, in my opinion, unnecessary. While I agree generally with the contributions you make on the board, this trait of yours is unflattering.
Scientists can be know-it-all jerks sometimes. I do it often, particularly over the past 10 years.
OP: Many are wrong. I recently received my first Greysheet and was shocked at the low estimates. Within is also a bluesheet which was unknown to me and will remain an unknown. IMO Greysheet is approx 20-25% below actual sales and PCGS and CACG guides at 12-18% over. The only correct "guide" is one obtained through research; mainly of prior sales/auctions and perhaps an averaging scheme. It creates a range to apply your level of desperation towards obtaining the treasure. At some point, TMI applies and all the guides are a perfect example. I've purchased my first and last Greysheet.
@PapiNE said:
IMO Greysheet is approx 20-25% below actual sales...
Greysheet is wholesale pricing. From the Greysheet website:
"The Greysheet wholesale bid prices are for problem-free, wholesome coins. Retail transactions will take place at a price above the Greysheet wholesale bid price."
I learned along time ago in Economics 101 that a "price" was determined with multiple transactions between fully-informed buyers and sellers and perfect information and other conditions.
When you get down to some of the illiquid, rarely traded, trophy coins....we're dealing with guestimates at best. What is the "price" for the 1933 Double Eagle ? $18.5 MM ? $25 MM ? What if it were for sale but nobody wanted it because a Registry change said it wouldn't have any weight in the scoring because there is only 1 coin available ? What if it were for sale and 2 tech billionaires each wanted it and a bidding war developed ? What is the price if the current owner said it won't be sold except by his estate ?
There's no way to price illiquid, unique, rarely bought/sold coins. Ultimately, it's caveat emptor.
@Catbert said:
I'm just giving you a taste of your medicine. Having observed your comments over the years, you often have an exacting nature especially when you correct others that is, in my opinion, unnecessary. While I agree generally with the contributions you make on the board, this trait of yours is unflattering.
Thank you for taking the time to comment based on your inferences. I don't receive enough feedback on my personality from people who have never met me. I look forward to further insights.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
I learned along time ago in Economics 101 that a "price" was determined with multiple transactions between fully-informed buyers and sellers and perfect information and other conditions.
When you get down to some of the illiquid, rarely traded, trophy coins....we're dealing with guestimates at best. What is the "price" for the 1933 Double Eagle ? $18.5 MM ? $25 MM ? What if it were for sale but nobody wanted it because a Registry change said it wouldn't have any weight in the scoring because there is only 1 coin available ? What if it were for sale and 2 tech billionaires each wanted it and a bidding war developed ? What is the price if the current owner said it won't be sold except by his estate ?
There's no way to price illiquid, unique, rarely bought/sold coins. Ultimately, it's caveat emptor.
There’s no way to predict the actual price [coins sell high or low all the time] but there is indeed a way to assign a price guide value. Two different things
@PapiNE said:
IMO Greysheet is approx 20-25% below actual sales...
Greysheet is wholesale pricing. From the Greysheet website:
"The Greysheet wholesale bid prices are for problem-free, wholesome coins. Retail transactions will take place at a price above the Greysheet wholesale bid price."
Correct. He might want to look at the CPG which is about 20% higher.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I understand that this is the internet, invented in part so that people could argue.
But I really don't see why this simple concept--For very scarce coins, that don't come to auction very often, price guides can be largely useless--can be controversial!
Not only does "it comes up for auction very rarely" mean that there is a paucity of useful data, but, also, what data there is can be biased based on the number of well-heeled bidders there were.
Wanna buy a very scarce, very expensive coin that becomes available? Be prepared to pay what the seller is asking (if it's not an auction), or what the auction forces (if it is an auction).
@MrEureka said:
Agreed, price guides are not completely reliable. As for 1827 Dimes, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a real proof. The JR-10’s, including the astounding Bareford-Lovejoy coin, are to me obviously SP at best. I can’t really say I remember the others I’ve seen over the years, but I’m pretty sure none of them was completely convincing to me. I would remember them if they were. So if it were up to me, 1827 Dimes would not even be priced in the guides.
Here’s the Bareford-Lovejoy coin I mentioned.
Andy, I don’t understand why you brought up Proof 1827 dimes when the opening post used circulation strikes as an example of apparent price guide inaccuracies. And that aside, did you mean to write “ So if it were up to me, 1827 Dimes would not even be priced in the guides.” ? Or did you accidentally omit “Proof” in front of “1827” ?
Obviously I misread something. And yes, I meant that I wouldn’t price PROOF 1827 dimes.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I think that the Price Guides do fairly well for 1909-S VDB's and coins that trade regularly. I don't play in the deep end, so the last auction price (and date) for a 1913 Liberty V Nickel or a '33 Saint is fine for me... but I'm not spending millions of dollars either!
But now, I've ventured into an area of collecting... Hard Times Tokens... that's largely devoid of a current Price Guide. I'm not sure they're listed in Grey Sheet, but I could be wrong. The only pricing suggestions I've come across are the ones in QD Bowers book, and a few entries into Rulau's book on Hard Times tokens. Both of these issues are over 20 years old, so the pricing is "dated" to say the least. To get past this, I've resorted to pulling data from ebay and GC on recent sold/completed items.
In practice, this seems to be a pretty good indicator... until it's not. Case in point: I've been looking at both raw and certified pieces. I was bidding on a certified (NGC) 1837 Feuchtwanger Cent in VF30 and was outbid at the end. She hammered for almost $180. According to my limited research... these typically sell for around $200 in that condition, so I figured I just didn't bid quite enough. There were over 20 bidders with multiple bids... all crunched into the last few seconds of the auction. Fast forward two weeks... I bid on a PCGS VF30 1837 Feuchtwanger Cent and won the auction... the PCGS coin hammered for $130+ tax/shipping. So, around $50 and ~25-30% difference in price. Also... fewer bidders (12 or so) and the lot ended on a holiday weekend.
I can't even begin to figure out an algorithm that takes all of this into consideration, but I do know I was willing to go to $200, yet the coin hammered for only $130 + tax/shipping. If I was a dealer, I'd be glad I sold the coin, but I'm thinking that I just lost out on ~$70....
Collecting: Dansco 7070; Middle Date Large Cents (VF-AU); Box of 20;
Ok- I get everyone's comments -Everyone's comments are excellent and valid.
1- For the ultra rarities (1804 dollar, 1913 Liberty nickel, 1933 $20) I get the price guides will be wrong for many reasons including when it comes to market and what buyers (with money) are willing to pay for the coins.
2- The purposes of my thread is not to focus on the ultra rarities but focus on the other coins.
3- Why does CACG price a 1827 dime in 66 4 $21,500 and PCGS prices it at $32,500. Why did PCGS lower the price from $37,500 to $32,500 without any trades? weak market? There is no support for these differences. Note- over the weekend CACG price was increased from $19,500 to $21,500. Why - my thread?
4- Dealers and collectors are commenting on the prices guides are not current nor correct . My comment - lets get them correct or reasonable close. Yeah - in comparing some coin prices in different guides they are close. Thats great. If 2 different guides are way different and the publishers have a basis for these differences then I am good with that as well.
5- Also, when a price of a coin has been increased or lowered, then they should provide a basis for the change. i.e. gold price increases or lack of demand for 1803 Bust dollars. Just add some transparency for the price change. One time I asked a publisher of a price guide why a price was lowered when recent auction records shows that the price increased - no explanation was offered. Maybe thats fair to say to me but no fair to the collecting community.
6- Not sure if GC auction price realized gets incorporate into the price guides or other non reported sales. Some reported sales gets reported and those might influence the price. Is that fair - of course not but I am not sure how it can get incorporated?
7- Love to know how to price out a finest known 1827 dime in proof? I can guess but its going to be wrong but maybe close?
@EastonCollection said:
Ok- I get everyone's comments -Everyone's comments are excellent and valid.
1- For the ultra rarities (1804 dollar, 1913 Liberty nickel, 1933 $20) I get the price guides will be wrong for many reasons including when it comes to market and what buyers (with money) are willing to pay for the coins.
2- The purposes of my thread is not to focus on the ultra rarities but focus on the other coins.
3- Why does CACG price a 1827 dime in 66 4 $21,500 and PCGS prices it at $32,500. Why did PCGS lower the price from $37,500 to $32,500 without any trades? weak market? There is no support for these differences. Note- over the weekend CACG price was increased from $19,500 to $21,500. Why - my thread?
4- Dealers and collectors are commenting on the prices guides are not current nor correct . My comment - lets get them correct or reasonable close. Yeah - in comparing some coin prices in different guides they are close. Thats great. If 2 different guides are way different and the publishers have a basis for these differences then I am good with that as well.
5- Also, when a price of a coin has been increased or lowered, then they should provide a basis for the change. i.e. gold price increases or lack of demand for 1803 Bust dollars. Just add some transparency for the price change. One time I asked a publisher of a price guide why a price was lowered when recent auction records shows that the price increased - no explanation was offered. Maybe thats fair to say to me but no fair to the collecting community.
6- Not sure if GC auction price realized gets incorporate into the price guides or other non reported sales. Some reported sales gets reported and those might influence the price. Is that fair - of course not but I am not sure how it can get incorporated?
7- Love to know how to price out a finest known 1827 dime in proof? I can guess but its going to be wrong but maybe close?
One man's opinion--You're missing the fundamental point that, for very thinly-traded issues, there is no way--NO WAY--to come up with an "accurate" price guesstimate. And the higher the price would be, the more impossible it is to estimate.
I don't play in the "mid-five figure" market, so this is just a guess; but I very much "guess" that people who can pay as much for a coin as I paid for my first home aren't very price-sensitive when a very scarce coin that matches their specs comes up. And when there are two or three of them in one auction, there is no guess where it will end. And when there is only one deep pocket in the auction, the result will be very different.
You can throw all the resources in existence into solving this "problem," but it's an economic/statistical issue, not a "price guide" issue.
For the vast, vast majority of coin purchases out there, the price guides are fine. For very expensive coins, thinly traded, they're not very accurate, and never will be.
@EastonCollection said:
Ok- I get everyone's comments -Everyone's comments are excellent and valid.
1- For the ultra rarities (1804 dollar, 1913 Liberty nickel, 1933 $20) I get the price guides will be wrong for many reasons including when it comes to market and what buyers (with money) are willing to pay for the coins.
2- The purposes of my thread is not to focus on the ultra rarities but focus on the other coins.
3- Why does CACG price a 1827 dime in 66 4 $21,500 and PCGS prices it at $32,500. Why did PCGS lower the price from $37,500 to $32,500 without any trades? weak market? There is no support for these differences. Note- over the weekend CACG price was increased from $19,500 to $21,500. Why - my thread?
4- Dealers and collectors are commenting on the prices guides are not current nor correct . My comment - lets get them correct or reasonable close. Yeah - in comparing some coin prices in different guides they are close. Thats great. If 2 different guides are way different and the publishers have a basis for these differences then I am good with that as well.
5- Also, when a price of a coin has been increased or lowered, then they should provide a basis for the change. i.e. gold price increases or lack of demand for 1803 Bust dollars. Just add some transparency for the price change. One time I asked a publisher of a price guide why a price was lowered when recent auction records shows that the price increased - no explanation was offered. Maybe thats fair to say to me but no fair to the collecting community.
6- Not sure if GC auction price realized gets incorporate into the price guides or other non reported sales. Some reported sales gets reported and those might influence the price. Is that fair - of course not but I am not sure how it can get incorporated?
7- Love to know how to price out a finest known 1827 dime in proof? I can guess but its going to be wrong but maybe close?
One man's opinion--You're missing the fundamental point that, for very thinly-traded issues, there is no way--NO WAY--to come up with an "accurate" price guesstimate. And the higher the price would be, the more impossible it is to estimate.
I don't play in the "mid-five figure" market, so this is just a guess; but I very much "guess" that people who can pay as much for a coin as I paid for my first home aren't very price-sensitive when a very scarce coin that matches their specs comes up. And when there are two or three of them in one auction, there is no guess where it will end. And when there is only one deep pocket in the auction, the result will be very different.
You can throw all the resources in existence into solving this "problem," but it's an economic/statistical issue, not a "price guide" issue.
For the vast, vast majority of coin purchases out there, the price guides are fine. For very expensive coins, thinly traded, they're not very accurate, and never will be.
Well stated.
I would add that the prices fluctuate based on data and the algorithm. And the algorithm is likely proprietary.
The OP is delusional if he thinks one of the data points is "my thread".
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Comments
What is a PR65 1838-O half worth? Can’t remember the last gem example to sell. Well, historically near what a gem 1884 trade dollar has realized. And one of those sold recently for around $1M. So I’d assign a value of $800,000
😂😂😂 THIS is the logic that underpins high end coin valuations?!? Yikes
Imagine your reasoning being audited or you being deposed over this. It's such thin gruel.
Yawn
If you don't have past sales to look at and you want an estimate of value, what else would you propose?
What's wrong with his reasoning? If past sales data is not there, it's not there. How does just throwing up your hands over it solve the problem?
Hi - Interesting point. I guess you are saying that price guides for collectors are free so you can't complain if there are errors or bad assumptions. These publishers of 3rd party price guides may not be willing to invest more money into the price guides. Personally, I think that all of the services that publish price guides try their absolute best to get prices right and their interest is to give collectors and others the best available information to make the proper decisions. I would like publishers to provide collectors more transparency into how prices are developed and when prices are changed to understand why.
I think GS/ @JohnF tries his absolute best to get pricing right. I've spoken with him and worked with him on trying to get pricing right for a very thinly traded type that I collect and he and his team were fantastic.
If you think PCGS is trying its absolute best to do ANYTHING right, particularly a free price guide, you haven't been paying attention.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
No, I'm not saying you can't complain.
I didn't say that, either. I did ask a couple of questions, though- does anybody have any thoughts on them:
How much do you suppose people would be willing to pay for a guide that's more accurate? Do you suppose there'd be enough people willing to pay that someone would consider investing the time and resources to create such a price guide?
Actually, Mark Ferguson was literally “A Man Ahead of His Time”. He did just as you suggest! Around 2016, he created and published monthly via subscription at a very reasonable price, a print “CAC Market Values”. He provided a somewhat narrow range for each entry, based on auction sales. I believe if there were no current/recent sales, he would look at recent sales of “similarly” valued dates. Yes, we could each do research and come up with similar results, but I found this to be a big time saver, and I subscribed right away. I even volunteered and wrote a few articles about collecting CAC stickered coins that he included. Each issue had a couple of interesting articles.
After a while, he also included a few values for plus grades, if he felt there was sufficient supporting data! Yes, he recognized that CAC says the CAC stickered plus coins are only solid at that whole grade, and they don’t say if it’s solid as a plus or not. But he also recognized “The Market” valued plus coins with stickers higher than whole grade coins with stickers.
As best as I recall, he ceased publication after three or four years, just shortly before the demand for CAC stickered coins grew significantly, like it is today. It has not always been this way. Years ago, the premium for CAC stickered coins over their non-stickered counterparts was not as great as it is today due to increased demand).
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Look to GAAP principles, auditing, appraising industry, prediction models, finance, big data, etc and develop a defensible standard for valuations with data and a thought process for determining value when there's little to no data. Software. A model. Something tangible.
Do NOT apply the same terminology to things based off data and those based off conjecture.
The main issue with his reasoning is that it's his. Is it written down anywhere? Replicatable? Generally accepted? What frequency does he update his number? Who approves changes to his logic? Are those changes transparent to the users and released at the speed of relevance? Is his logic consistently applied?
Oh my god, dude -I’m simply giving you an example of how one might value a coin that hasn’t been sold in recent times. Gather those estimates and a reasonable price guide could be created.
I was responding to @EastonCollection when he said: Personally, I think that all of the services that publish price guides try their absolute best to get prices right and their interest is to give collectors and others the best available information to make the proper decisions.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
Ok, then- ignore his reasoning. Nobody says you have to agree with it, or a price guide.
Sorry about that. Nested quotes, and all that...
You mean like Greysheet?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Yeah. Except there seems to be some dissatisfaction with their pricing opinions in some cases, too. So- it would have to be someone who does more in-depth research on pricing than Greysheet does. How much more would it cost for something like that? Are there enough people who would pay for it?
Just to be clear - My goal in this thread is not to bash anyone or any publisher of price guides. They do an excellent job and have great team of talented people working there. My goal is to prevent as many errors in the price guide, price coins truly based on what a willing buyer and seller will want to complete a transaction and when prices are changed provide the readers with some commentary as to why. Obviously, a 1884 trade dollar is impossible to price especially not knowing who is interested at the time its being offered. Lastly, even though each price service develops pricing using different financial models, they shouldn't be so far apart. Currently, many dealers and experienced collectors are making comments so they can't all be wrong. Again, all I am asking is to address these dealers and collectors concerns.
Honestly, not trying to give you a hard time here, but I took a quick look at an old Greysheet and there must be over a thousand price changes, plus and minus. Are they expected to provide commentary on them all?
My guess is no. Plenty would stick to the free guides, a lot consider their own pricing superior to ANY guide and the rest complain about ANY guide
I just mention Greysheet because people are always complaining about the price. It is also probably the best guide out there, representing actual offers to buy on the exchange.
It is IMPOSSIBLE for any guide to mvhdss@rit.edu what a coin will bring after 5 years out of the market. You can't analyze data that doesn't exist.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Not only that, THEY DON'T CHANGE THEM BY HAND. The OP still acts like a room full of experts are pricing every coin by hand. An algorithm crunches the numbers and spits out a price. You could then analyze it and say "the price dropped due to recent auction results in the database", but what does that tell you? And to your earlier point, how much is the OP willing to pay for a price guide that gives him useless commentary?
In the end, the coin hits the block and people then decide what they want to pay for it. If the guide is low, it sells for over. If the guide is high, it sells for under. The only price that ever matters is the sale price.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@tradedollarnut . I didn't even know you knew me. Maybe people will also notice me complaining about other things at home. james
This is inaccurate. John at GS, when presented with auction records, has made adjustments "by hand". I know this because he's talked about it on message boards and in video interviews.
"She comes out of the sun in a silk dress,
running like a water color in the rain...."
It IS accurate. They do make adjustments. But the vast majority of pricing is done by statistics. They make adjustments when necessary but 99% of pricing is algorithmic.
You really think they sit their and fill out the thousands of fields by hand?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
So, you agree that your statement "THEY DON'T CHANGE THEM BY HAND" is inaccurate. I never said that they adjust thousands by hand.
"She comes out of the sun in a silk dress,
running like a water color in the rain...."
No. I don't. You are pulling that out of context. There is not a "room full of experts...pricing every coin by hand" which is the context. By labeling my comment as inaccurate, the implication is that there is...
So, if we're grading comments, mine is 99% accurate and yours is 1%. 😁
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I'm just giving you a taste of your medicine. Having observed your comments over the years, you often have an exacting nature especially when you correct others that is, in my opinion, unnecessary. While I agree generally with the contributions you make on the board, this trait of yours is unflattering.
"She comes out of the sun in a silk dress,
running like a water color in the rain...."
Scientists can be know-it-all jerks sometimes. I do it often, particularly over the past 10 years.
Without my CDN digital PG I would be lost.
OP: Many are wrong. I recently received my first Greysheet and was shocked at the low estimates. Within is also a bluesheet which was unknown to me and will remain an unknown. IMO Greysheet is approx 20-25% below actual sales and PCGS and CACG guides at 12-18% over. The only correct "guide" is one obtained through research; mainly of prior sales/auctions and perhaps an averaging scheme. It creates a range to apply your level of desperation towards obtaining the treasure. At some point, TMI applies and all the guides are a perfect example. I've purchased my first and last Greysheet.
USAF veteran 1984-2005
I think those who have read more than one or two of your posts already knew that.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Greysheet is wholesale pricing. From the Greysheet website:
"The Greysheet wholesale bid prices are for problem-free, wholesome coins. Retail transactions will take place at a price above the Greysheet wholesale bid price."
I learned along time ago in Economics 101 that a "price" was determined with multiple transactions between fully-informed buyers and sellers and perfect information and other conditions.
When you get down to some of the illiquid, rarely traded, trophy coins....we're dealing with guestimates at best. What is the "price" for the 1933 Double Eagle ? $18.5 MM ? $25 MM ? What if it were for sale but nobody wanted it because a Registry change said it wouldn't have any weight in the scoring because there is only 1 coin available ? What if it were for sale and 2 tech billionaires each wanted it and a bidding war developed ? What is the price if the current owner said it won't be sold except by his estate ?
There's no way to price illiquid, unique, rarely bought/sold coins. Ultimately, it's caveat emptor.
Thank you for taking the time to comment based on your inferences. I don't receive enough feedback on my personality from people who have never met me. I look forward to further insights.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I didn't. I thought he had a "cost plus" pricing model. He generally seems uninterested in market pricing.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
There’s no way to predict the actual price [coins sell high or low all the time] but there is indeed a way to assign a price guide value. Two different things
Correct. He might want to look at the CPG which is about 20% higher.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I understand that this is the internet, invented in part so that people could argue.
But I really don't see why this simple concept--For very scarce coins, that don't come to auction very often, price guides can be largely useless--can be controversial!
Not only does "it comes up for auction very rarely" mean that there is a paucity of useful data, but, also, what data there is can be biased based on the number of well-heeled bidders there were.
Wanna buy a very scarce, very expensive coin that becomes available? Be prepared to pay what the seller is asking (if it's not an auction), or what the auction forces (if it is an auction).
Obviously I misread something. And yes, I meant that I wouldn’t price PROOF 1827 dimes.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Interesting posts to this thread...
I think that the Price Guides do fairly well for 1909-S VDB's and coins that trade regularly. I don't play in the deep end, so the last auction price (and date) for a 1913 Liberty V Nickel or a '33 Saint is fine for me... but I'm not spending millions of dollars either!
But now, I've ventured into an area of collecting... Hard Times Tokens... that's largely devoid of a current Price Guide. I'm not sure they're listed in Grey Sheet, but I could be wrong. The only pricing suggestions I've come across are the ones in QD Bowers book, and a few entries into Rulau's book on Hard Times tokens. Both of these issues are over 20 years old, so the pricing is "dated" to say the least. To get past this, I've resorted to pulling data from ebay and GC on recent sold/completed items.
In practice, this seems to be a pretty good indicator... until it's not. Case in point: I've been looking at both raw and certified pieces. I was bidding on a certified (NGC) 1837 Feuchtwanger Cent in VF30 and was outbid at the end. She hammered for almost $180. According to my limited research... these typically sell for around $200 in that condition, so I figured I just didn't bid quite enough. There were over 20 bidders with multiple bids... all crunched into the last few seconds of the auction. Fast forward two weeks... I bid on a PCGS VF30 1837 Feuchtwanger Cent and won the auction... the PCGS coin hammered for $130+ tax/shipping. So, around $50 and ~25-30% difference in price. Also... fewer bidders (12 or so) and the lot ended on a holiday weekend.
I can't even begin to figure out an algorithm that takes all of this into consideration, but I do know I was willing to go to $200, yet the coin hammered for only $130 + tax/shipping. If I was a dealer, I'd be glad I sold the coin, but I'm thinking that I just lost out on ~$70....
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Ok- I get everyone's comments -Everyone's comments are excellent and valid.
1- For the ultra rarities (1804 dollar, 1913 Liberty nickel, 1933 $20) I get the price guides will be wrong for many reasons including when it comes to market and what buyers (with money) are willing to pay for the coins.
2- The purposes of my thread is not to focus on the ultra rarities but focus on the other coins.
3- Why does CACG price a 1827 dime in 66 4 $21,500 and PCGS prices it at $32,500. Why did PCGS lower the price from $37,500 to $32,500 without any trades? weak market? There is no support for these differences. Note- over the weekend CACG price was increased from $19,500 to $21,500. Why - my thread?
4- Dealers and collectors are commenting on the prices guides are not current nor correct . My comment - lets get them correct or reasonable close. Yeah - in comparing some coin prices in different guides they are close. Thats great. If 2 different guides are way different and the publishers have a basis for these differences then I am good with that as well.
5- Also, when a price of a coin has been increased or lowered, then they should provide a basis for the change. i.e. gold price increases or lack of demand for 1803 Bust dollars. Just add some transparency for the price change. One time I asked a publisher of a price guide why a price was lowered when recent auction records shows that the price increased - no explanation was offered. Maybe thats fair to say to me but no fair to the collecting community.
6- Not sure if GC auction price realized gets incorporate into the price guides or other non reported sales. Some reported sales gets reported and those might influence the price. Is that fair - of course not but I am not sure how it can get incorporated?
7- Love to know how to price out a finest known 1827 dime in proof? I can guess but its going to be wrong but maybe close?
“Love to know how to price out a finest known 1827 dime in proof? I can guess but its going to be wrong but maybe close?”
Simple - you ask Chuck Link what he’d pay for it.
One man's opinion--You're missing the fundamental point that, for very thinly-traded issues, there is no way--NO WAY--to come up with an "accurate" price guesstimate. And the higher the price would be, the more impossible it is to estimate.
I don't play in the "mid-five figure" market, so this is just a guess; but I very much "guess" that people who can pay as much for a coin as I paid for my first home aren't very price-sensitive when a very scarce coin that matches their specs comes up. And when there are two or three of them in one auction, there is no guess where it will end. And when there is only one deep pocket in the auction, the result will be very different.
You can throw all the resources in existence into solving this "problem," but it's an economic/statistical issue, not a "price guide" issue.
For the vast, vast majority of coin purchases out there, the price guides are fine. For very expensive coins, thinly traded, they're not very accurate, and never will be.
Well stated.
I would add that the prices fluctuate based on data and the algorithm. And the algorithm is likely proprietary.
The OP is delusional if he thinks one of the data points is "my thread".
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.