Throw out the Price Guides - I believe that they are WRONG!
EastonCollection
Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭✭✭
I am an experienced coin collector and over the years have priced coins for a famous coin book.
I hear many dealers saying the price guides are not correct and collectors are being mislead using price guides. Quite frankly, I am getting quite frustrated on the price guides and I can not hold back anymore.
My goal for this thread is getting the publishers of price guides to raise their bar and get prices that they published right or at least close to reality.
Some reasons why I feel misleading price guides are just plain wrong hurt our hobby (1) inexperienced and well seasoned collectors are missing out on buying coins as they use published prices guides for pricing their coin purchases (2) some dealers might be taking advantage of collectors by buying coins too cheaply from them and (3) publishers aren't focusing on this part of the hobby right or close to right.
My goal for this thread is for publishers to raise their bar on pricing coins. Publishers and dealers need to understand the markets better, otherwise they aren't doing their job right nor helping the hobby. See something, say something.
For example, the series that I feel that I can best explain this topic is Capped Bust Dimes. My favorite date is 1827 and I will use this date but there are so many other examples where these differences exist and in many other series.
The PCGS pop report shows 2 examples in 66, 1 example in 66+ and none higher.
The CACG pop report show 2 examples in 66 and none higher.
The PCGS price guide shows 66s at $32,500 and 66+ at $52,500.
The CACG price guide shows the 66s at $19,500.
A few observations:
1- Recently, the PCGS price guide reduced the 66 price from $37,500 to $32,500.
2- Generally, I had thought that CAC graded or and stickered coins should be priced higher than PCGS non stickered coins
3- I have no idea why PCGS decreased the 66 price recently when I know the collectors that own the 66 and have owned them for over 10 years and have no plans on selling them nor offering them for sale to anyone
4- I have no idea why the 2 different services are pricing these coins so differently - $19,500 vs $32,500 - REALLY?
5- The last auction record for a 1827 P66 that sold in auction was the Gardener sale in 2014. Its wasn't stickered and it sold for $28,200.
6- When I question one publisher of their price guide on how they determine the value, they usually don't have strong support.
7- I know a collector that owns a 66 CAC'd coin was offered alot more than price guide and turned it down about 3 years ago.
8- I know all 3 examples of the 1827 P66 and they are all excellent examples.
Here are the published price guides
CACG- 
PCGS-
Here is one example of the 1827 Capped Bust dime -
Again, the purpose of this thread is for publishers to raise its bar get prices guides right or at least close. Also publishers of price guides should provide reasons for significant change in price.
Anyone else - please show give your thoughts and some examples and Happy Thanksgiving!
Comments
Superb topic . . . very timely, and applicable to all collectors. I enjoy your precise example, but would expand your specific just a bit. I believe that for every mid-five-figure collector there are many/more/dozens/hundreds (?) of passionate collectors of slightly lower-range pieces who experience the identical problem.
Why the differences (CACG / auctions / PCGS / Greysheet / CPG / etc.) for even common 'porkbelly' type coins? Is it ALL just related to quality of the coin? Some different perception of grading? Just laziness? Variances between perceived "wholesale" v. "retail" ?
My take on this is the "Pop 1/0" numismatists certainly have a valid point (OP), and I would EXPAND the question overall to include a wider tent, so to speak. I certainly understand that the 'art' element of coins (quality, toning, unique attributes), even in the generics, determines an undocumented path to price, but it would seem that on a simple semi-key, we should be able to have somewhat closer basal values from different sources.
But . . . I understand. The Mona Lisa might be 355 Million to one guy, and a placemat to another. Hard to value . . . . .
I look forward to replies to the OP. I hope this doesn't die off the front page too quickly . . .
Drunner
There are a lot of coins in a lot of grades to track, making this in unenviable task. There are also a lot of variables that make pricing difficult, as coins each have positive and negative attributes, unlike say a share of Nvidia stock.
Like many things, the guides are data dependent. For highly traded generic coins in generic grades, I’d expect them to be pretty accurate. For thinly traded esoteric coins, it’s very difficult to determine an accurate value.
@DRUNNER - The example that I used is not a unique coin but all 3 examples are quite nice. Not sure why in the world PCGS changed its price would love to know its bases for changing prices. Clearly, a gorgeously toned and original Capped Bust Half might sell for twice price guide but that I get.
@Walker21 - Yeah there are alot of coins to price out but if a publisher is pricing out coins for many series, then all I am asking is to raise their bar and do it right, or at least close to right. Have a basis for their work.
+1
Price guides are nothing more than guides. For coins that rarely trade they’re pretty much useless. For coins that frequently trade ie. Morgans, they’re helpful but they don’t distinguish between A and C coins.
If you know who owns the coins you used as an example, and you know they aren’t planning on selling them, then any price anybody states can’t be accurate because the coins aren’t available for sale. Especially so if they weren’t purchased recently, any past sale prices are outdated and most likely aren’t relevant.
Mr_Spud
@Mr_Spud - I agree 100% with you but why did PCGS change the price without any recent buys or sales? I really not concerned that the price was lowered or increased, just trying to understand why the change.
One possible reason to change a price, despite the absence of recent sales would be the perception that the overall market had strengthened or weakened. As even very rare coins can be affected by market conditions.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
With a coin like the 1827 10c in 66 where none have traded for a long time, any price guide value can only be the authors “best guess” as to what a hypothetical auction (or private sale) might bring, if held that day.
If I was pricing, I might look at other dates with similar grades/pops around the 1827 for more recent results, and extrapolate from there. So that is how a price guide might rise or drop on a date/grade without any examples actually trading.
That said, I agree with you that guides are mostly useless when it comes to pricing many coins, especially those that must be seen in hand because they are spectacular, like your 1827 example!
Look up the circulated values for any and all 1840's Seated quarters. Look in any and all auction records for a price match. I'l give you a few days to look. James
@MFeld - Hey Mark - Again, I 100% agree with you that market conditions in the area of Capped Bust Dimes or coins overall can fluctuate, hence values can change even on non-widely traded coins. But PCGS didn't change the prices on the + coins and what can explain the large price difference between PCGS ($32,500) and CAC ($19,500) price guides. I am not trying to break anyone's balls but the folks behind the price guides need to do their job better.
For my favourite series, Draped Bust Large Cents, I never look at price guides. I will go to CoinFacts but that is only to see recent auction results. I’ll also scan sold listings on HA, GC and eBay. But even there, much mental adjustment is required. Not all F15s are created equal and, how do you value a high eye appeal coin detailed because of innocuous scratch versus a scuzzy but straight-graded coin?
Smitten with DBLCs.
I've noticed the smaller the coin the more wildly the swings in the price-guide.
The larger the coin, the more likely the price-guides match up.
Exactly, the one solution to take out the tedious task of analyzing the data and getting significantly better results would be to implement AI to drive the guides; however, this would be costly to implement in these early stages of AI and the TPGs will have a hard time rationalizing a positive return.
The only good reason I can think of to lower the price for MS66’s but not 66+’s would be if it was thought that the previous difference in prices between the two wasn’t as large as it should have been.
The $19,500 CAC price guide value looks to be unrealistically low and in need of (edited) an upward adjustment.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@Aotearoa - Love your thinking and you are 100% correct. I know that Draped Bust Large Cent value for a F15 can be very different compared with another F15 as one might be a A coin and another is a C quality coin. That I get and only very astute dealers and collectors can make that mental adjustment. But CACG price for a 66 is $19,500 and PCGS is $32,500. There are only 3 examples of the 1827 CBD that are PCGS graded. What can explain such difference? The folks that are publishing prices are the pros!
🫢 Fixed - thank you.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Happy Thanksgiving.
True story - At a recent show, a very reputable dealer was offering a coin to a collector and that collector noticed the dealers asking price was considerably higher than the price guide and passed on buying the coin. I thought that price was fair and bought the coin. That day, I sold the coin for a small profit to a dealer. I caught up with the collector and asked why he passed on the coin and he told me the price and thought that the dealer was too expensive. I didn't think the collector came to the wrong conclusion about that dealer. He subsequently agreed with me that he really wanted the coin. I had sold the coin later and he bought that coin from the dealer I sold it too. Happy that the collector got the coin but had to pay a few bucks more for all the wrong reasons.
No way is that circulated.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
In some cases I have seen guides assign a price of 'rare'. Pretty noncommittal, but perhaps better than trying to figure out a single number. As you get into condition rarities like this, it may be more appropriate to assign a range of possible prices for the grade instead of deciding on one absolute number. That poses it's own set of problems, but may work best for coins with low populations and infrequent auction appearances.
I used to give PCGS input on all the dollar prices from 1794-1885. I was the most active participant in that market and had an even better feel for values than most dealers
I personally like the “-“ for top low # pops. Watching $10k PG coins bring $40k at auction ought to tell you all you need to know when buying one of those.
Empty Nest Collection
I have read that collectors actually determine the price/value of anything. If the seller's price is too high, it will not move.
BST transactions: dbldie55, jayPem, 78saen, UltraHighRelief, nibanny, liefgold, FallGuy, lkeigwin, mbogoman, Sandman70gt, keets, joeykoins, ianrussell (@GC), EagleEye, ThePennyLady, GRANDAM, Ilikecolor, Gluggo, okiedude, Voyageur, LJenkins11, fastfreddie, ms70, pursuitofliberty, ZoidMeister,Coin Finder, GotTheBug, edwardjulio, Coinnmore, Nickpatton, Namvet69,...
Does the typical person who buys $30k - $50k coins use guides like this to inform themselves of their current values?
Yes. Along with auction prices realized
I don't play in the "mid-five figure field," so I have no idea how accurate price guides are for those. I find them generally helpful in the price ranges I buy in.
I do know that, on the rare occasion that I'm looking for a very scarce coin, sometimes having to wait many months (or more) to find the coin I want, the price guide is only a very general, ball park, guide. When the coin finally becomes available, I have to pay what it takes to get it, or wait an indeterminate amount of time more to find another one. Conversely, were I the seller of a very scarce coin, I would not be in any hurry to drop the price, and I would start above the "price guide" price.
Trying to tell dealers they don’t know the market and how to price their coins would not work for me.
The way I see it:
Top pop coins are for other collectors.
Dealers need to make a profit on their transactions but collectors do not.
The ones with the most transactions in the various categories and/or niches of coins know the markets best.
I just get to have an opinion.
I feel like price guides are a lot like betting line setters, especially on the super thinly traded stuff. An actual sale of these coins is just hypothetical. If they price it at a point where half of those who care think it’s too high and the other half think it’s too low, they nailed it.
Eventually there will be a real sale, and they still won’t publish exactly that as the value.
On the frequently traded stuff, I think people like a deal and they publish aspirational retail values so common collectors can pay less than book value and be happy.
Some do. Having money is no guarantee of genius.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
A buddy of mine is a small specialty dealer with wealthy clients. He told me once that if a coin is really wanted, they will just bid 5x the guide price. Sometimes they have to pay it, but most often they do not. Still, imagine what that does to the price guide
Empty Nest Collection
The market speaks. There’s a $150k priced coin that’s been offered for sale for 18 months and nobody will pay but maybe half that. Shrug
Agreed, price guides are not completely reliable. As for 1827 Dimes, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a real proof. The JR-10’s, including the astounding Bareford-Lovejoy coin, are to me obviously SP at best. I can’t really say I remember the others I’ve seen over the years, but I’m pretty sure none of them was completely convincing to me. I would remember them if they were. So if it were up to me, 1827 Dimes would not even be priced in the guides.
Here’s the Bareford-Lovejoy coin I mentioned.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I have never found them useful.
Forgetta about it. Just mark them up accordingly.
Like the post above mentioned, they are data dependent. Someone makes a sale on this board, is that data fed into PCGS's database? Probably not. I notice they don't currently track GreatCollections either. What about eBay? For the data to be rich, sellers would need to make sure they entered the certification # for each coin or describe the coin in a uniform way for PCGS to pick it up. I cant say it's all on PCGS. The data is too fragmented to get an accurate picture.
I agree with you @EastonCollection. I’m currently working on a Proof Barber Dime set, and the coins I’m buying in the grades I want are typically mid four figure coins. There’s a tremendously large pricing differential between the PCGS Price Guide and the CAC Price Report, in the same “reverse” direction as your 1827 Capped Dime example. I find my purchases and auction sales of stickered coins are somewhere in between, suggesting that the PCGS guide is too high, and the CAC guide is too low. Here are some examples, all recent - this year, all for PCGS graded CAC stickered coins:
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Which of those purchases were at auction and which were from dealers?
Numbers 2 and 6 were bought at auction, but the points actually being made are threefold:
(Thanks @jmlanzaf for identifying why a line above was in a giant font size. I never knew that. How did you?).
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
You typed "#". That increases the font at the front of a line
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
The CAC prices are Greysheet not retail.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
My understanding is that Greysheet (which does indeed provide the pricing for the CAC Price Report) takes their normal wholesale price data and increases it to come up with the pricing for the CAC Price Report.
Here’s the pricing data shown by Heritage (but derived from Greysheet) for a different coin I’m watching. In this example, the $1,800 is what is actually shown in the CAC Price Report:
GRADE 64
CDN CPG® (RETAIL) $1,550| CPG CAC $1,800
CDN GREYSHEET $1,230 | CDN CAC $1,446
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
There are some very good points made on this thread. I would imagine that most collectors here are using price guides just as they are intended, guides! For the less experienced collectors, I don't know if there is a way to fix it. I dont believe a novice collector is going to jump right in and go after a top pop/single pop capped bust dime.
I think this has been a fun and educational thread to see some more experienced collectors' strategies. I find myself using the same sources when planning on going after a certain coin I need for one of the sets I am building, especially when I am trying to determine my budget!
Top pop coins are always and will continue to be difficult to value. Most trade privately and dont trade hands often. When an exceptional collection comes up for sale, then I believe everyone would agree that you can, "throw out the price guide" as collectors scramble to add the top tier coins to their sets and get into bidding wars. I think it is one of the things that makes the hobby interesting.
My only thoughts to the OPs original point is that the guide publishers must feel overall the series is down. Its not a series I follow.
Now, for my own contribution to this thread and to further stir the pot, how do you value the top tier coins when a NEW coin comes out or when a better coin is made. For this threads comparison, how will you value a MS67 when that plus gets upgraded? What will that do to the value of the 66's. What happens to the 66's when more are made?
The Greysheet is my first go-to guide. Find the coin, see the bid, tap the line the coin is on, see the auction records instantly, form my own opinion of value.
The price guides on some of the exceptional issues that rarely trade could give a price range, ie $19K-$40K with a bunch of asterisks with explanations at the bottom of the page. They could also give online links to particular coins. Coinfacts is very good and useful with recent auction results.
Andy, I don’t understand why you brought up Proof 1827 dimes when the opening post used circulation strikes as an example of apparent price guide inaccuracies. And that aside, did you mean to write “ So if it were up to me, 1827 Dimes would not even be priced in the guides.” ? Or did you accidentally omit “Proof” in front of “1827” ?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Agree, a range of prices would work better than a single price for some coins. Coinfacts was great when it worked. Unfortunately the Coinfacts auction results have been glitched for months now with results not able to be sorted. Not so much of an issue if a coin only has a few auction records, but still it's a resource that PCGS seems to have largely given up on.
As a long time collector, but not one with an interest in ultra rare coins that may not come to market very often I understand guide pricing can be a nightmare to compile. For the series I collect. I use the guide purely as it's intended, a guide. One piece of information I use in determining what I believe a coin is worth. I rely more on recent past auction results. I stress " recent ".
However Great Collections results are not factored in with our hosts guide pricing. As a big player in selling coins, I wish GC were figured in.
I to would like to see " a range " rather than a set price. We all know the A vs B vs C coins for a given grade.
Over the last few years I find myself relying less and less on guide pricing because of the problems mentioned throughout this post.
@MrEureka - I got to admit, you shared on this thread one of favorite Capped Bust dimes of all time - its a 1827 JR-10 SP. Its absolutely fabulous! I saw that coin several years ago and I get chills thinking about it! Thank you for adding to my Thanksgiving!
@winesteven - Thank you for pointing out another series where prices are very different between price guides!
I do realize that pricing coins that are traded frequently are easier than less frequently traded coins and I do realize that frequently traded coins with great strike, high eye appeal and/or exceptional toning trade above price guides. We all get it and even novice collectors get it in short order. If the major price guides price out a coin around $3,000 and if collector or dealer wants to pay alot more, than its on them, not on the price guide.
Pricing is an art and not a science. We all get that too.
Many dealers and collectors are stating that price guides aren't either up to date or just plain wrong. I would like those that publish price guides to get it right by enhancing their QC, have support for their prices, incorporate the experts in the specific series in determining prices and incorporate all prices realized from auctions and shows and all other information and knowledge out there. I really don't think that I am asking that much........
GC is not figured in because GC doesn't want to be figured in. They own their own data and aren't interested in sharing it. Complain to Ian
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.