@WACoinGuy said:
I started collecting just around the height of the Hunt brothers run. Paid $5 for this dime back then ... I'm close to breaking even!
If you don't count the opportunity cost. $5 in an S&P 500 find in 1980 is about $300 today.
.
Using the momentary 1980 spike in the silver price makes for a false comparison.
SPX has increased by a factor of about 65 since 1978.
For the same time span, silver has increased by a factor of 12.
Comparing the average price for a six year span from mid-2014 to mid-2020:
Silver about $17.15 average to $51.50 = about 3.0x increase.
SPX about 2,000 average to 6,550 = about 3.3x increase.
What really matter is, which will increase more from here ?
@dcarr said:
Using the momentary 1980 spike in the silver price makes for a false comparison.
just don't go down this road. stop and turn around
this "selective range" thing is a major source of bickering on here and makes this place a turn off, except to those who like to bicker.\forget you ever said anything
@dcarr said:
Using the momentary 1980 spike in the silver price makes for a false comparison.
just don't go down this road. stop and turn around
this "selective range" thing is a major source of bickering on here and makes this place a turn off, except to those who like to bicker.\forget you ever said anything
ooopes. by this place... i thought i was in the pm forum.
but forget the "range" discussion. there are plenty to choose from and that creates a bickering source
@dcarr said:
Using the momentary 1980 spike in the silver price makes for a false comparison.
just don't go down this road. stop and turn around
this "selective range" thing is a major source of bickering on here and makes this place a turn off, except to those who like to bicker.\forget you ever said anything
ooopes. by this place... i thought i was in the pm forum.
but forget the "range" discussion. there are plenty to choose from and that creates a bickering source
.
I stand by my recent comments. The data presented is factual, for the purpose of seeing things from a different viewpoint.
It should be possible to discuss data points without "bickering".
@WACoinGuy said:
I started collecting just around the height of the Hunt brothers run. Paid $5 for this dime back then ... I'm close to breaking even!
If you don't count the opportunity cost. $5 in an S&P 500 find in 1980 is about $300 today.
.
Using the momentary 1980 spike in the silver price makes for a false comparison.
SPX has increased by a factor of about 65 since 1978.
For the same time span, silver has increased by a factor of 12.
Comparing the average price for a six year span from mid-2014 to mid-2020:
Silver about $17.15 average to $51.50 = about 3.0x increase.
SPX about 2,000 average to 6,550 = about 3.3x increase.
What really matter is, which will increase more from here ?
.
I don't think people read the whole thread or even the context of the response. There is NOTHING false about using 1980 when the person I'm responding to BOUGHT THE COIN IN 1980 FOR $5. Your using 2014 is actually a FAKE COMPARISON for a coin bought in 1980.
Thank you in advance for the retraction.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@dcarr said:
Using the momentary 1980 spike in the silver price makes for a false comparison.
just don't go down this road. stop and turn around
this "selective range" thing is a major source of bickering on here and makes this place a turn off, except to those who like to bicker.\forget you ever said anything
ooopes. by this place... i thought i was in the pm forum.
but forget the "range" discussion. there are plenty to choose from and that creates a bickering source
.
I stand by my recent comments. The data presented is factual, for the purpose of seeing things from a different viewpoint.
It should be possible to discuss data points without "bickering".
.
Except your "different viewpoint" ignores the fact that the coin under discussion was bought in 1980. Silver can go up 100% this week and it doesn't change the fact that his now $10 dime effectively cost him $300 in 1980.
If you want the more accurate viewpoint, opportunity costs should always be considered. If you bought a dime for $5 in 2014 (your year) and sell it for $5 in 2025, you didn't "break even" from an investment perspective.
Yes, it matters more where it goes now than where it was then because you can't go back in time and change things. But that is completely irrelevant to the point i was making in reference to a specific coin purchase in 1980.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@MilesWaits said:
Each time I went to my local dealer to consider the divestment of the bullion (like the justifiably unloved Spouses)
This thread just triggered my memory of the Spouse coins I bought on impulse one night back in the day after having a few too many beers....they just got tossed in the box at the bank and forgotten about. It almost feels like found money this morning.
Jim
Those few beers likely helped you make a bunch of money. Need to have another to celebrate! I bought a bunch of them a few years ago along with their red haded stepchildren-modern gold commems that few wanted. I believe I will have a beer to celebrate too.
It wouldn't surprise me if most of the common morgans are melted in the next several years leaving 10 or 12 million better coins and another several million waiting for the furnaces.
@WACoinGuy said:
I started collecting just around the height of the Hunt brothers run. Paid $5 for this dime back then ... I'm close to breaking even!
If you don't count the opportunity cost. $5 in an S&P 500 find in 1980 is about $300 today.
Many companies that were in the Dow or S and P are long gone, especially if you go back a couple more decades.
And yet the fund is still there. That's why you buy the fund not the underlying stocks. The defunct stocks are included in my calculation. But thank you for trying.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@WACoinGuy said:
I hate to say it, but as a kid in 1980 I just bought the coin because I liked it. I wasn't worried about investment returns just yet.
That's the way it should be. Buy for enjoyment of the hobby, not so much for investment purposes. If it goes up, then great! If not, then at least you had the pleasure of owning the said item for a period of time.
Ya I understand the melts but don't like to see it. I like old dollars. I like the fact that I can go back in time so to speak and hold a silver dollar from 1880...
@Coin Finder said:
Ya I understand the melts but don't like to see it. I like old dollars. I like the fact that I can go back in time so to speak and hold a silver dollar from 1880...
I think it's neat the way even coin collectors ignore recording what's in circulation and don't see the great destruction of coins even in retrospect. We've always acted as though the destruction s random even though it's so targeted almost every coin has a ledger to tell.
@WACoinGuy said:
I hate to say it, but as a kid in 1980 I just bought the coin because I liked it. I wasn't worried about investment returns just yet.
That's the way to go. I didn't mean to sound critical.
Oh no, I didn't take it as critical at all - just pointing out I was just buying what I liked. If I hadn't bought a coin, I'd probably have spent it on candy bars. Of course, back then I could have gotten 25 candy bars for that $5. But then I'd have nothing left except a few extra pounds.
@WACoinGuy said:
I hate to say it, but as a kid in 1980 I just bought the coin because I liked it. I wasn't worried about investment returns just yet.
That's the way to go. I didn't mean to sound critical.
Oh no, I didn't take it as critical at all - just pointing out I was just buying what I liked. If I hadn't bought a coin, I'd probably have spent it on candy bars. Of course, back then I could have gotten 25 candy bars for that $5. But then I'd have nothing left except a few extra pounds.
Candy bars are supposed to be a nickel aren't they. It sure makes it hard to spend $100 to go out.
@WACoinGuy said:
I started collecting just around the height of the Hunt brothers run. Paid $5 for this dime back then ... I'm close to breaking even!
If you don't count the opportunity cost. $5 in an S&P 500 find in 1980 is about $300 today.
Many companies that were in the Dow or S and P are long gone, especially if you go back a couple more decades.
And yet the fund is still there. That's why you buy the fund not the underlying stocks. The defunct stocks are included in my calculation. But thank you for trying.
But how many brokers recommend the S&P as a long term investment? Yeah, I know, Buffett probably does but how can brokers make money on investments like that? My grandfather opted for ITT back in the 60s for his grandchildren's college, not exactly a successful investment.
@WACoinGuy said:
I started collecting just around the height of the Hunt brothers run. Paid $5 for this dime back then ... I'm close to breaking even!
If you don't count the opportunity cost. $5 in an S&P 500 find in 1980 is about $300 today.
Many companies that were in the Dow or S and P are long gone, especially if you go back a couple more decades.
And yet the fund is still there. That's why you buy the fund not the underlying stocks. The defunct stocks are included in my calculation. But thank you for trying.
But how many brokers recommend the S&P as a long term investment? Yeah, I know, Buffett probably does but how can brokers make money on investments like that? My grandfather opted for ITT back in the 60s for his grandchildren's college, not exactly a successful investment.
Buffet, John Bogle and about half the money managers out there. They get management fees these days, they don't make money from trades.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Buffet, John Bogle and about half the money managers out there. They get management fees these days, they don't make money from trades.
Exactly right. As a longer term holding for their customers, brokers make more from the 25 - 50 bps fee they get annually vs the one time ticket charge. Buy it and forget it until you need the funds.
@Coin Finder said:
Well the big boys raised the lease rate on AG to 100%! The shorts have to cover so they are buying and buying... Hard to hedge in silver right now....
Always wondered when these massive melts take place how one determines the effect on the posted circulation numbers in our Whitman folders. Do commons, based on circulation numbers, become semi -keys or keys from all these melts?
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@dcarr said:
Using the momentary 1980 spike in the silver price makes for a false comparison.
just don't go down this road. stop and turn around
this "selective range" thing is a major source of bickering on here and makes this place a turn off, except to those who like to bicker.\forget you ever said anything
ooopes. by this place... i thought i was in the pm forum.
but forget the "range" discussion. there are plenty to choose from and that creates a bickering source
.
I stand by my recent comments. The data presented is factual, for the purpose of seeing things from a different viewpoint.
It should be possible to discuss data points without "bickering".
.
Except your "different viewpoint" ignores the fact that the coin under discussion was bought in 1980. Silver can go up 100% this week and it doesn't change the fact that his now $10 dime effectively cost him $300 in 1980.
If you want the more accurate viewpoint, opportunity costs should always be considered. If you bought a dime for $5 in 2014 (your year) and sell it for $5 in 2025, you didn't "break even" from an investment perspective.
Yes, it matters more where it goes now than where it was then because you can't go back in time and change things. But that is completely irrelevant to the point i was making in reference to a specific coin purchase in 1980.
.
This debate started in regards to a 1959 dime that was purchased for $5 in 1980. I sold several 1955-1964 silver proof dimes at the peak of the 1980 market and the best price I obtained was $2.10 each, well below $5.
In 1978 I bought a toy slot car for $8. I could have put that into SPX and had $520 now. Or I could have saved money by skipping lunch and put that into investments. The point is, there is ALWAYS something better that we COULD have done. What counts is the question of what is best to do now.
If a fair comparison is to be made, a short-term aberration in the price should not be used.
Would it be reasonable to talk about oil prices and use the starting point when oil contracts were at a NEGATIVE -$40 per barrel ?
I posted this silver price chart on this forum a couple years ago. The point I was making was a suggestion to buy silver when it was near the magenta line, not during one of the price spikes. The general trend is a reliable comparison, not individual price spikes up or down.
@jdimmick said:
There is so much stuff coming in across counter, it has to be melted, I along with many other, pay what base d on where i can ship or sell too, its getting so high nobody wants culls anywhere close to melt
Eventually, the smelters will not want to pay these prices because if there are no end-users -- retail or industrial demand -- then nobody will want the silver.
@jdimmick said:
There is so much stuff coming in across counter, it has to be melted, I along with many other, pay what base d on where i can ship or sell too, its getting so high nobody wants culls anywhere close to melt
Eventually, the smelters will not want to pay these prices because if there are no end-users -- retail or industrial demand -- then nobody will want the silver.
That's not the case....yet.
.
So you think that a time will come when there are no "end-users - retail or industrial" for silver.
That seems unlikely, but maybe if a swath of the human population gets wiped out.
But not if that is done by robots. Robots will likely need some silver.
The question is, will they buy it, or just take it ?
So you think that a time will come when there are no "end-users - retail or industrial" for silver.
That seems unlikely, but maybe if a swath of the human population gets wiped out.
But not if that is done by robots. Robots will likely need some silver.
The question is, will they buy it, or just take it ?
Darn it, where is my silver? Better check the roomba. I knew I shouldn’t have bought that darn robotic vacuum cleaner.
So you think that a time will come when there are no "end-users - retail or industrial" for silver.
That seems unlikely, but maybe if a swath of the human population gets wiped out.
But not if that is done by robots. Robots will likely need some silver.
The question is, will they buy it, or just take it ?
Darn it, where is my silver? Better check the roomba. I new I shouldn’t have bought that darn robotic vacuum cleaner.
Yes sir, you can't make this stuff up. Robots needing gutter metal? It's gone Looney Tunes up in here. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
I posted this silver price chart on this forum a couple years ago. The point I was making was a suggestion to buy silver when it was near the magenta line, not during one of the price spikes. The general trend is a reliable comparison, not individual price spikes up or down.
Your chart (magenta line) much more accurately correlates to total aggregate silver demand by industry than to anything else. The scale is off of course largely because it can't reflect the "ancient" silver demand in things like photography and plate but it reflects the growing demand and array of products in this modern high tech world. We ARE at the base of a parabolic curve in the demand for silver.
We live in a world that has intentionally suppressed the value of silver thereby leading to massive waste and underproduction. We live in a world of Just in Time Delivery so the pipeline is very very lean so we don't even notice we are already 40 years short of production in a world that is inert and bound by the status quo except in high tech.
We are going to be living hand to mouth with silver for many decades until new sources can be identified and utilized and it was all to profit the few.
So you think that a time will come when there are no "end-users - retail or industrial" for silver.
That seems unlikely, but maybe if a swath of the human population gets wiped out.
But not if that is done by robots. Robots will likely need some silver.
The question is, will they buy it, or just take it ?
Darn it, where is my silver? Better check the roomba. I new I shouldn’t have bought that darn robotic vacuum cleaner.
Yes sir, you can't make this stuff up. Robots needing gutter metal? It's gone Looney Tunes up in here. RGDS!
.
You don't think silver is a useful material for building robots ?
Silver has properties for:
the best solid-state batteries ;
the highest room-temperature conductivity electrical wires ;
the highest thermal-conductivity material ;
the greatest sensitivity to light ;
the best solar panels ;
the highest reflectivity material.
Received this email from Monument Metals (one of the many providers I have used and enjoyed):
A Special Message from Jon Swyers, CEO
Dear Precious Metals Investor,
We’re witnessing one of the most remarkable moments in the history of the precious metals market. Gold has moved above $4,000 per ounce, and silver has passed $50, levels that few expected to see this soon.
These record prices reflect something deeper than just excitement in the markets. They reveal a major shift in how investors view gold and silver, not just as commodities, but as stores of real value and protection during uncertain times.
At Monument Metals, we believe in clear, transparent communication, especially during periods like this. I want to take a moment to explain what’s happening, what it means for your orders, and what smart buyers should be doing right now.
What’s Happening in the Precious Metals Market Right Now
The current environment is unlike anything we’ve ever seen. Both gold and silver are seeing record demand from central banks, institutions, and everyday investors who want to hold physical metal as a safeguard against uncertainty.
One key factor driving the silver market is a condition called backwardation, when the spot price for metals is higher than the future price. This means buyers want physical silver right now, and are willing to pay more for immediate delivery. It’s a strong sign of tight supply and growing urgency in the market.
At the same time, refineries and dealers across the U.S. are facing new challenges. Some have paused silver purchases for melting lower purity silver because lease rates, the interest charged to borrow metal, have jumped from under 2% to over 100%. Others are running at full capacity with longer wait times, creating short-term delays throughout the supply chain.
Meanwhile, silver inventories in major vaults, especially in London, have dropped sharply. Banks are even flying metal across the Atlantic to meet demand, but high transport and financing costs are limiting supply.
All of these factors together have created a perfect storm, historic demand, limited supply, and fast-moving prices.
For long-term investors, this is a reminder of why owning physical gold and silver matters. When markets get volatile, real metal in hand provides stability and peace of mind that paper assets can’t always deliver
@MilesWaits said:
Received this email from Monument Metals (one of the many providers I have used and enjoyed):
A Special Message from Jon Swyers, CEO
Dear Precious Metals Investor,
We’re witnessing one of the most remarkable moments in the history of the precious metals market. Gold has moved above $4,000 per ounce, and silver has passed $50, levels that few expected to see this soon.
These record prices reflect something deeper than just excitement in the markets. They reveal a major shift in how investors view gold and silver, not just as commodities, but as stores of real value and protection during uncertain times.
At Monument Metals, we believe in clear, transparent communication, especially during periods like this. I want to take a moment to explain what’s happening, what it means for your orders, and what smart buyers should be doing right now.
What’s Happening in the Precious Metals Market Right Now
The current environment is unlike anything we’ve ever seen. Both gold and silver are seeing record demand from central banks, institutions, and everyday investors who want to hold physical metal as a safeguard against uncertainty.
One key factor driving the silver market is a condition called backwardation, when the spot price for metals is higher than the future price. This means buyers want physical silver right now, and are willing to pay more for immediate delivery. It’s a strong sign of tight supply and growing urgency in the market.
At the same time, refineries and dealers across the U.S. are facing new challenges. Some have paused silver purchases for melting lower purity silver because lease rates, the interest charged to borrow metal, have jumped from under 2% to over 100%. Others are running at full capacity with longer wait times, creating short-term delays throughout the supply chain.
Meanwhile, silver inventories in major vaults, especially in London, have dropped sharply. Banks are even flying metal across the Atlantic to meet demand, but high transport and financing costs are limiting supply.
All of these factors together have created a perfect storm, historic demand, limited supply, and fast-moving prices.
For long-term investors, this is a reminder of why owning physical gold and silver matters. When markets get volatile, real metal in hand provides stability and peace of mind that paper assets can’t always deliver
Check Monumentals buy prices recently? You'd think with this unprecedented demand, perfect storm whatever they want to call it malarky they would be offering a little better than -$2.75/oz under spot? Typically offers like this suggest many more sellers than buyers. Just sayin.
THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Very good article which has some relevance to today. I suspect some of you know some of the people quoted in the article.
MELTS OF SILVER COINS HAVE AFFECTED COLLECTORS, The New York Times, July 28 1985
The value of a coin is normally based on how many were made. In years to come, however, the value of silver United States coins may hinge on how many were lost. Millions of coins have been melted for recapture of their metal and the impact on coin collecting is likely to be enormous.
Most of the melting took place in 1979 and 1980, when silver bullion soared to an all-time high of $50 an ounce. At that point, common-date silver coins were worth far more as metal than as money or collectibles. Even scarcer items could be melted at a profit.
The value of silver has plummeted since then. In recent weeks, it has hovered between $6 and $7 an ounce and the melts have been reduced to a virtual standstill. Nonetheless, the shape of the coin market has been changed dramatically by the earlier melts. The future course of the hobby - for better or worse - has been altered permanently.
A number of observers fear that the change has been for the worse. They outlined their concerns in recent interviews.
''Those coin melts probably hurt us more than we'll ever know,'' said Leon E. Hendrickson, proprietor of Silver Towne in Winchester, Ind., one of the nation's largest coin dealerships. ''They destroyed a lot of our 'seed coins' - the coins that got people started - and put a lot of collectors out of business.
''Unfortunately, you can't do things over,'' he added. ''It's sort of like Humpty Dumpty. After he had his great fall, all the king's horses and all the king's men couldn't put him back together again. And that's the way it is with the coin market, too, I'm afraid.''
Mr. Hendrickson himself was deeply involved in the silver melts. He bought huge quantities of silver coins from customers and sold them, in turn, to refiners. He estimated that during 1979 and 1980, Silver Towne processed ''thousands of bags'' of silver coins destined for refiners' melting pots.
''I was part of it,'' he said, ''so I can't point the finger at anybody else. I was just as guilty as anybody else. But that was the way everybody operated then; that was just the way coin dealers had to do business.''
Joel Coen, a New York coin dealer who also played an important part in the melts, agreed that they ''hurt the hobby.'' He believes they became inevitable, once the United States government removed the silver content from coins. That, he said, was what hurt numismatics most of all.
''The real damage,'' Mr. Coen said, ''was done 20 years ago, when the clad coins came along and people started pulling the silver coins out of circulation. I turned to my partner at that time and said, 'Do you realize that this is going to destroy not only the present generation of collectors, but future generations, as well?'
''That sounded the death knell for this business. From then on, no kid could look through his father or mother's change and form the nucleus of a coin collection, like I did when I was a kid. It's axiomatic that obsolescence eliminates accumulation. People need something out there - something that's available - to grab and hold their interest. And we're missing that today in numismatics.''
Mr. Coen estimates that of all the silver coins produced by the United States Mint, only about one-fourth have escaped the melting pots. He calculates that he alone sold refiners $400 million worth of fabricated silver, mostly common silver coins, during the one-year period from July 1, 1979 to June 30, 1980.
''I remember one day melting 100 bags of 1963 Franklin halves,'' Mr. Coen related. ''And, looking back, I'm glad I did. The most they bring today is maybe 6 bucks apiece, and I guess at that point I must have gotten 13 or 14 dollars each for them as dead items.''
Although 1980 marked the peak of the great silver melts, it was really the culmination of a process that began more than 10 years earlier. Silver coins had been melted - surreptitiously at first and later more openly - since the 1960's. From a hobby standpoint, the loss of these coins took part in two distinct stages: First, their withdrawal from circulation in the mid-1960's. Second, the melting itself. The melts made the losses permanent, but the physical withdrawal already had caused the hobby grievous harm.
There is no way of determining the number of coins or their dates that have been melted. Dealers and refiners have had neither the time nor the inclination to keep detailed records. For obvious reasons, late-date coins with high mintages have accounted for most of the losses. Key and semikey coins with significant value as collector's items seldom are melted except by mistake.
Jim Carr, a prominent dealer in Pelham, N.H., pointed out that this has resulted in a total rearrangement of relative rarity levels in every modern series of silver U.S. coins.
''Essentially,'' he observed, ''the key coins now are common, since they're the ones that were saved and the formerly common coins are now rare, since most of them were melted.
''Take Roosevelt dimes, for example. The 1949-S and the 1955-P, D and S are probably the commonest coins in the series today in circulated condition, whereas before the melts they were the scarcest. Being worth a premium, they were saved. In circulated condition, the new key may be the 1946-D or something like that.''
Silver dollars have weathered the melts to a far greater extent than smaller silver coins. This may be due to public perception. Not having seen the large silver coins for decades in circulation, many people view them as scarcer and more valuable than half dollars, quarters and dimes even though the opposite often may be true numismatically.
Whatever the explanation, their higher survival rate has made silver dollars more attractive and more useful to coin-market promoters in the five years since the melts subsided. This, in turn, has reinforced their traditional popularity and helped sustain their reign as ''king of the hill'' in the current marketplace.
Luis Vigdor, vice president and head of the numismatic department at Manfra, Tordella & Brookes Inc. in New York, maintains that up to now, most hobbyists haven't yet grasped the significance of the melts. The reason for this, he said, is that sluggish market conditions have served to delay the impact.
''You have to remember,'' he said, ''that since the time of the melts, the market has been relatively dull. We've gone through a cycle of stagnation, and there hasn't been much pressure on the small remaining supplies of silver coins. Once we have a resurgence of interest, the situation will become much more obvious. Then, in my opinion, you'll see these particular coins go up substantially.''
Harry J. Forman, a well-known Philadelphia coin dealer who has written several books on coin investment, doubts whether market analysts will ever really know just how many silver coins remain and how they break down by date and mint mark. For that reason, he said, future buyers and sellers may never again enjoy the security once provided by meaningful mintage figures.
''There's no way we could ever tell,'' he said. ''The only way would be to take a census and what guarantee do we have that any such census would be correct. Many people won't answer questions regarding their collections or their inventories. They like confidentiality, and I don't think you'd get them to cooperate.''
Mr. Carr believes that in time, the general outlines will be clear. He cautioned, however, that ''it's going to take a lot of real research'' to come up with even close approximations.
Mr. Carr agrees with Messrs. Hendrickson and Coen that the silver melts have been extremely detrimental for the hobby. But, he said, they could have been even worse. If the melts had continued unabated, he said, the stock of silver coins could have been all but wiped out. ''When silver hit $50 an ounce, I would say that 98 percent of the silver coins in existence were committed to smelting houses,'' Mr. Carr said. ''If the price had been maintained, most everything would have been lost.
''Fortunately,'' he added, ''the refiners had a two-to three-month backlog. As silver dropped in value they withdrew a lot of the coins. Even so, it's scary just thinking of what might have happened.''
@logger7 said:
Am I right to assume that decent AU/BU dollars that were $50-$70 plus coins have not dropped they're just not rising with the silver price?
Yes. But keep in mind that a few are getting melted so they are becoming less common. At the same time a few more are hitting the market as some seek to take silver profits.
Generally coins hold their value until the price is eclipsed by silver.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Very good article which has some relevance to today. I suspect some of you know some of the people quoted in the article.
I have a book from the 1980's (1985 I think) which attempted to estimate number melted by year and denomination. I don't remember the book's name (it's in storage) but someone else here may have it too.
As an example, it recommended or at least inferred 1938-D dimes were a good buy in "UNC". This was based upon the supposedly "low" mintage of 5MM+. No, 5,537,000 isn't actually a low number for a collectible item even with most circulating extensively. It's no different for any of the coins inferenced in this thread.
It's my inference that some legitimately scarce non-US coinage was melted around 1980 due to the metal run-up, but not any US coins and it won't be any different this time. The supply even in high quality is too high, far above the collector base wanting it as a collectible. That's how I was able to obtain about 100 choice to gem 1940's and later silver quarters in the $500 bag I bought early last year. That claimed 98% melt rate (which I find hard to believe) would still have left a large number of high-quality common coins of every date.
One coin I believe that could have been melted in relatively high proportion in 1980 is the1959 South Africa crown. Total mintage for business strike, prooflike, and proof is 6,139. It's been the "key date" from the beginning, but "melt" was probably more than collector value at the 1980 peak price.
I remember melting quite a few neat antique items at that time too.
Things like coffee/tea sets, cigar cases and mesh purses. It was the only way to profit from such items as they were too expensive to sell.
Comments
.
Using the momentary 1980 spike in the silver price makes for a false comparison.
SPX has increased by a factor of about 65 since 1978.
For the same time span, silver has increased by a factor of 12.
Comparing the average price for a six year span from mid-2014 to mid-2020:
Silver about $17.15 average to $51.50 = about 3.0x increase.
SPX about 2,000 average to 6,550 = about 3.3x increase.
What really matter is, which will increase more from here ?
.
just don't go down this road. stop and turn around
this "selective range" thing is a major source of bickering on here and makes this place a turn off, except to those who like to bicker.\forget you ever said anything
ooopes. by this place... i thought i was in the pm forum.
but forget the "range" discussion. there are plenty to choose from and that creates a bickering source
.
I stand by my recent comments. The data presented is factual, for the purpose of seeing things from a different viewpoint.
It should be possible to discuss data points without "bickering".
.
Guess I'd rather see em melted down into bars for the BIGS than getting graffitied into some restruck fantasy tokens. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
I don't think people read the whole thread or even the context of the response. There is NOTHING false about using 1980 when the person I'm responding to BOUGHT THE COIN IN 1980 FOR $5. Your using 2014 is actually a FAKE COMPARISON for a coin bought in 1980.
Thank you in advance for the retraction.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Except your "different viewpoint" ignores the fact that the coin under discussion was bought in 1980. Silver can go up 100% this week and it doesn't change the fact that his now $10 dime effectively cost him $300 in 1980.
If you want the more accurate viewpoint, opportunity costs should always be considered. If you bought a dime for $5 in 2014 (your year) and sell it for $5 in 2025, you didn't "break even" from an investment perspective.
Yes, it matters more where it goes now than where it was then because you can't go back in time and change things. But that is completely irrelevant to the point i was making in reference to a specific coin purchase in 1980.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Those few beers likely helped you make a bunch of money. Need to have another to celebrate! I bought a bunch of them a few years ago along with their red haded stepchildren-modern gold commems that few wanted. I believe I will have a beer to celebrate too.
By the way, @MoMelt!
It wouldn't surprise me if most of the common morgans are melted in the next several years leaving 10 or 12 million better coins and another several million waiting for the furnaces.
Goodbye Modern70’s!
The furnaces won't spare anything that has no collector premium.
The backlog will be worked off and the refineries will scream for metal in the form of higher premiums.
Many companies that were in the Dow or S and P are long gone, especially if you go back a couple more decades.
And yet the fund is still there. That's why you buy the fund not the underlying stocks. The defunct stocks are included in my calculation. But thank you for trying.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I hate to say it, but as a kid in 1980 I just bought the coin because I liked it. I wasn't worried about investment returns just yet.
That's the way it should be. Buy for enjoyment of the hobby, not so much for investment purposes. If it goes up, then great! If not, then at least you had the pleasure of owning the said item for a period of time.
Proud follower of Christ!
Ya I understand the melts but don't like to see it. I like old dollars. I like the fact that I can go back in time so to speak and hold a silver dollar from 1880...
I think it's neat the way even coin collectors ignore recording what's in circulation and don't see the great destruction of coins even in retrospect. We've always acted as though the destruction s random even though it's so targeted almost every coin has a ledger to tell.
That's the way to go. I didn't mean to sound critical.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Oh no, I didn't take it as critical at all - just pointing out I was just buying what I liked. If I hadn't bought a coin, I'd probably have spent it on candy bars. Of course, back then I could have gotten 25 candy bars for that $5. But then I'd have nothing left except a few extra pounds.
Candy bars are supposed to be a nickel aren't they. It sure makes it hard to spend $100 to go out.
Adios to Silver - Pandas, Maples, Eagles, Brittanias, Lunars, etc. as “I love the smell of smelters in the morning” abides.
But how many brokers recommend the S&P as a long term investment? Yeah, I know, Buffett probably does but how can brokers make money on investments like that? My grandfather opted for ITT back in the 60s for his grandchildren's college, not exactly a successful investment.
Buffet, John Bogle and about half the money managers out there. They get management fees these days, they don't make money from trades.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Exactly right. As a longer term holding for their customers, brokers make more from the 25 - 50 bps fee they get annually vs the one time ticket charge. Buy it and forget it until you need the funds.
Well the big boys raised the lease rate on AG to 100%! The shorts have to cover so they are buying and buying... Hard to hedge in silver right now....
If we only knew then what we know now.
source?
That's what's great about childhood innocence. You have and hold something for what it is,not for what it may become.
We did know...
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Always wondered when these massive melts take place how one determines the effect on the posted circulation numbers in our Whitman folders. Do commons, based on circulation numbers, become semi -keys or keys from all these melts?
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This debate started in regards to a 1959 dime that was purchased for $5 in 1980. I sold several 1955-1964 silver proof dimes at the peak of the 1980 market and the best price I obtained was $2.10 each, well below $5.
In 1978 I bought a toy slot car for $8. I could have put that into SPX and had $520 now. Or I could have saved money by skipping lunch and put that into investments. The point is, there is ALWAYS something better that we COULD have done. What counts is the question of what is best to do now.
If a fair comparison is to be made, a short-term aberration in the price should not be used.
Would it be reasonable to talk about oil prices and use the starting point when oil contracts were at a NEGATIVE -$40 per barrel ?
I posted this silver price chart on this forum a couple years ago. The point I was making was a suggestion to buy silver when it was near the magenta line, not during one of the price spikes. The general trend is a reliable comparison, not individual price spikes up or down.
Eventually, the smelters will not want to pay these prices because if there are no end-users -- retail or industrial demand -- then nobody will want the silver.
That's not the case....yet.
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So you think that a time will come when there are no "end-users - retail or industrial" for silver.
That seems unlikely, but maybe if a swath of the human population gets wiped out.
But not if that is done by robots. Robots will likely need some silver.
The question is, will they buy it, or just take it ?
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Darn it, where is my silver? Better check the roomba. I knew I shouldn’t have bought that darn robotic vacuum cleaner.
Yes sir, you can't make this stuff up. Robots needing gutter metal? It's gone Looney Tunes up in here. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Your chart (magenta line) much more accurately correlates to total aggregate silver demand by industry than to anything else. The scale is off of course largely because it can't reflect the "ancient" silver demand in things like photography and plate but it reflects the growing demand and array of products in this modern high tech world. We ARE at the base of a parabolic curve in the demand for silver.
We live in a world that has intentionally suppressed the value of silver thereby leading to massive waste and underproduction. We live in a world of Just in Time Delivery so the pipeline is very very lean so we don't even notice we are already 40 years short of production in a world that is inert and bound by the status quo except in high tech.
We are going to be living hand to mouth with silver for many decades until new sources can be identified and utilized and it was all to profit the few.
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You don't think silver is a useful material for building robots ?
Silver has properties for:
the best solid-state batteries ;
the highest room-temperature conductivity electrical wires ;
the highest thermal-conductivity material ;
the greatest sensitivity to light ;
the best solar panels ;
the highest reflectivity material.
As usual, you have totally missed the bot.
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Not all of us. I was only 2.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
Lol.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
What is the current buy on circulated 21M & Peace $1's?
Melt is almost $40/coin ($39.89).
Received this email from Monument Metals (one of the many providers I have used and enjoyed):
A Special Message from Jon Swyers, CEO
Dear Precious Metals Investor,
We’re witnessing one of the most remarkable moments in the history of the precious metals market. Gold has moved above $4,000 per ounce, and silver has passed $50, levels that few expected to see this soon.
These record prices reflect something deeper than just excitement in the markets. They reveal a major shift in how investors view gold and silver, not just as commodities, but as stores of real value and protection during uncertain times.
At Monument Metals, we believe in clear, transparent communication, especially during periods like this. I want to take a moment to explain what’s happening, what it means for your orders, and what smart buyers should be doing right now.
What’s Happening in the Precious Metals Market Right Now
The current environment is unlike anything we’ve ever seen. Both gold and silver are seeing record demand from central banks, institutions, and everyday investors who want to hold physical metal as a safeguard against uncertainty.
One key factor driving the silver market is a condition called backwardation, when the spot price for metals is higher than the future price. This means buyers want physical silver right now, and are willing to pay more for immediate delivery. It’s a strong sign of tight supply and growing urgency in the market.
At the same time, refineries and dealers across the U.S. are facing new challenges. Some have paused silver purchases for melting lower purity silver because lease rates, the interest charged to borrow metal, have jumped from under 2% to over 100%. Others are running at full capacity with longer wait times, creating short-term delays throughout the supply chain.
Meanwhile, silver inventories in major vaults, especially in London, have dropped sharply. Banks are even flying metal across the Atlantic to meet demand, but high transport and financing costs are limiting supply.
All of these factors together have created a perfect storm, historic demand, limited supply, and fast-moving prices.
For long-term investors, this is a reminder of why owning physical gold and silver matters. When markets get volatile, real metal in hand provides stability and peace of mind that paper assets can’t always deliver
Check Monumentals buy prices recently? You'd think with this unprecedented demand, perfect storm whatever they want to call it malarky they would be offering a little better than -$2.75/oz under spot? Typically offers like this suggest many more sellers than buyers. Just sayin.
THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Very good article which has some relevance to today. I suspect some of you know some of the people quoted in the article.
MELTS OF SILVER COINS HAVE AFFECTED COLLECTORS, The New York Times, July 28 1985
The value of a coin is normally based on how many were made. In years to come, however, the value of silver United States coins may hinge on how many were lost. Millions of coins have been melted for recapture of their metal and the impact on coin collecting is likely to be enormous.
Most of the melting took place in 1979 and 1980, when silver bullion soared to an all-time high of $50 an ounce. At that point, common-date silver coins were worth far more as metal than as money or collectibles. Even scarcer items could be melted at a profit.
The value of silver has plummeted since then. In recent weeks, it has hovered between $6 and $7 an ounce and the melts have been reduced to a virtual standstill. Nonetheless, the shape of the coin market has been changed dramatically by the earlier melts. The future course of the hobby - for better or worse - has been altered permanently.
A number of observers fear that the change has been for the worse. They outlined their concerns in recent interviews.
''Those coin melts probably hurt us more than we'll ever know,'' said Leon E. Hendrickson, proprietor of Silver Towne in Winchester, Ind., one of the nation's largest coin dealerships. ''They destroyed a lot of our 'seed coins' - the coins that got people started - and put a lot of collectors out of business.
''Unfortunately, you can't do things over,'' he added. ''It's sort of like Humpty Dumpty. After he had his great fall, all the king's horses and all the king's men couldn't put him back together again. And that's the way it is with the coin market, too, I'm afraid.''
Mr. Hendrickson himself was deeply involved in the silver melts. He bought huge quantities of silver coins from customers and sold them, in turn, to refiners. He estimated that during 1979 and 1980, Silver Towne processed ''thousands of bags'' of silver coins destined for refiners' melting pots.
''I was part of it,'' he said, ''so I can't point the finger at anybody else. I was just as guilty as anybody else. But that was the way everybody operated then; that was just the way coin dealers had to do business.''
Joel Coen, a New York coin dealer who also played an important part in the melts, agreed that they ''hurt the hobby.'' He believes they became inevitable, once the United States government removed the silver content from coins. That, he said, was what hurt numismatics most of all.
''The real damage,'' Mr. Coen said, ''was done 20 years ago, when the clad coins came along and people started pulling the silver coins out of circulation. I turned to my partner at that time and said, 'Do you realize that this is going to destroy not only the present generation of collectors, but future generations, as well?'
''That sounded the death knell for this business. From then on, no kid could look through his father or mother's change and form the nucleus of a coin collection, like I did when I was a kid. It's axiomatic that obsolescence eliminates accumulation. People need something out there - something that's available - to grab and hold their interest. And we're missing that today in numismatics.''
Mr. Coen estimates that of all the silver coins produced by the United States Mint, only about one-fourth have escaped the melting pots. He calculates that he alone sold refiners $400 million worth of fabricated silver, mostly common silver coins, during the one-year period from July 1, 1979 to June 30, 1980.
''I remember one day melting 100 bags of 1963 Franklin halves,'' Mr. Coen related. ''And, looking back, I'm glad I did. The most they bring today is maybe 6 bucks apiece, and I guess at that point I must have gotten 13 or 14 dollars each for them as dead items.''
Although 1980 marked the peak of the great silver melts, it was really the culmination of a process that began more than 10 years earlier. Silver coins had been melted - surreptitiously at first and later more openly - since the 1960's. From a hobby standpoint, the loss of these coins took part in two distinct stages: First, their withdrawal from circulation in the mid-1960's. Second, the melting itself. The melts made the losses permanent, but the physical withdrawal already had caused the hobby grievous harm.
There is no way of determining the number of coins or their dates that have been melted. Dealers and refiners have had neither the time nor the inclination to keep detailed records. For obvious reasons, late-date coins with high mintages have accounted for most of the losses. Key and semikey coins with significant value as collector's items seldom are melted except by mistake.
Jim Carr, a prominent dealer in Pelham, N.H., pointed out that this has resulted in a total rearrangement of relative rarity levels in every modern series of silver U.S. coins.
''Essentially,'' he observed, ''the key coins now are common, since they're the ones that were saved and the formerly common coins are now rare, since most of them were melted.
''Take Roosevelt dimes, for example. The 1949-S and the 1955-P, D and S are probably the commonest coins in the series today in circulated condition, whereas before the melts they were the scarcest. Being worth a premium, they were saved. In circulated condition, the new key may be the 1946-D or something like that.''
Silver dollars have weathered the melts to a far greater extent than smaller silver coins. This may be due to public perception. Not having seen the large silver coins for decades in circulation, many people view them as scarcer and more valuable than half dollars, quarters and dimes even though the opposite often may be true numismatically.
Whatever the explanation, their higher survival rate has made silver dollars more attractive and more useful to coin-market promoters in the five years since the melts subsided. This, in turn, has reinforced their traditional popularity and helped sustain their reign as ''king of the hill'' in the current marketplace.
Luis Vigdor, vice president and head of the numismatic department at Manfra, Tordella & Brookes Inc. in New York, maintains that up to now, most hobbyists haven't yet grasped the significance of the melts. The reason for this, he said, is that sluggish market conditions have served to delay the impact.
''You have to remember,'' he said, ''that since the time of the melts, the market has been relatively dull. We've gone through a cycle of stagnation, and there hasn't been much pressure on the small remaining supplies of silver coins. Once we have a resurgence of interest, the situation will become much more obvious. Then, in my opinion, you'll see these particular coins go up substantially.''
Harry J. Forman, a well-known Philadelphia coin dealer who has written several books on coin investment, doubts whether market analysts will ever really know just how many silver coins remain and how they break down by date and mint mark. For that reason, he said, future buyers and sellers may never again enjoy the security once provided by meaningful mintage figures.
''There's no way we could ever tell,'' he said. ''The only way would be to take a census and what guarantee do we have that any such census would be correct. Many people won't answer questions regarding their collections or their inventories. They like confidentiality, and I don't think you'd get them to cooperate.''
Mr. Carr believes that in time, the general outlines will be clear. He cautioned, however, that ''it's going to take a lot of real research'' to come up with even close approximations.
Mr. Carr agrees with Messrs. Hendrickson and Coen that the silver melts have been extremely detrimental for the hobby. But, he said, they could have been even worse. If the melts had continued unabated, he said, the stock of silver coins could have been all but wiped out. ''When silver hit $50 an ounce, I would say that 98 percent of the silver coins in existence were committed to smelting houses,'' Mr. Carr said. ''If the price had been maintained, most everything would have been lost.
''Fortunately,'' he added, ''the refiners had a two-to three-month backlog. As silver dropped in value they withdrew a lot of the coins. Even so, it's scary just thinking of what might have happened.''
Am I right to assume that decent AU/BU dollars that were $50-$70 plus coins have not dropped they're just not rising with the silver price?
Yes. But keep in mind that a few are getting melted so they are becoming less common. At the same time a few more are hitting the market as some seek to take silver profits.
Generally coins hold their value until the price is eclipsed by silver.
I have a book from the 1980's (1985 I think) which attempted to estimate number melted by year and denomination. I don't remember the book's name (it's in storage) but someone else here may have it too.
As an example, it recommended or at least inferred 1938-D dimes were a good buy in "UNC". This was based upon the supposedly "low" mintage of 5MM+. No, 5,537,000 isn't actually a low number for a collectible item even with most circulating extensively. It's no different for any of the coins inferenced in this thread.
It's my inference that some legitimately scarce non-US coinage was melted around 1980 due to the metal run-up, but not any US coins and it won't be any different this time. The supply even in high quality is too high, far above the collector base wanting it as a collectible. That's how I was able to obtain about 100 choice to gem 1940's and later silver quarters in the $500 bag I bought early last year. That claimed 98% melt rate (which I find hard to believe) would still have left a large number of high-quality common coins of every date.
One coin I believe that could have been melted in relatively high proportion in 1980 is the1959 South Africa crown. Total mintage for business strike, prooflike, and proof is 6,139. It's been the "key date" from the beginning, but "melt" was probably more than collector value at the 1980 peak price.
A lot of scarce and rare exonumia (including 1970s vintage rounds and bars) was probably melted in 1979-1980.
I remember melting quite a few neat antique items at that time too.
Things like coffee/tea sets, cigar cases and mesh purses. It was the only way to profit from such items as they were too expensive to sell.