@Cuprinkor said:
I remember when chopmarked Trade Dollars were considered damaged coins.
Some people still do consider them to be damaged
So do I and I also remember that PCGS refused to slab them and would return them raw in a "body bag".
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
The prohibition contained in § 82.1 against the exportation, melting, or treatment of 5-cent coins shall not apply to 5-cent coins inscribed with the years 1942, 1943, 1944, or 1945 that are composed of an alloy comprising copper, silver and manganese.
@Catbert said:
Bottom line, there will be no shortage of Morgan dollars if some are melted.
Is this a good time to mention that there are something like 50,000-75,000 total trade dollars in existence?
EDIT: On second thought, maybe 75-100k is a more accurate range.
The 100K number appears to be extremely low. After redeemed/melted, exported/imported In Kirchgessner book the total number of Trade Dollars in the US after melting is 1,347,696. How do you get from 1.3 million to 100K?
That estimate was as of 1887 and was only for estimated coins in the US; it did not include an estimate for coins still overseas which would push up the number even higher. However, there is also 140 years of attrition to account for.
That being said, I have little to base my estimate on other than gut feel as a trade dollar collector and inferences based on the total number of graded coins (as well as auction appearances but this is less easy data to compile). Given the value of the coins, that they are often counterfeited, and their overall scarcity, I would expect a fairly high percentage to be graded. There are ~40k grading events between PCGS and NGC (not accounting for crackouts but also not accounting for PCGS details coins which are not included in the census).
I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong or very wrong as my estimate is not based on much hard data. However, I'm pretty confident the number is much closer to 100k than 1mm.
@Cuprinkor said:
I remember when chopmarked Trade Dollars were considered damaged coins.
Some people still do consider them to be damaged
So do I and I also remember that PCGS refused to slab them and would return them raw in a "body bag".
As someone who collects chopmarked coins (by quantity, they represent >50% of my collection), they are of course damaged. But, given the nature of the damage and all of my normal comments (basically all sub-70 coins are damaged, etc etc, blah blah) , I don't view the damage as a negative.
@Catbert said:
Bottom line, there will be no shortage of Morgan dollars if some are melted.
Is this a good time to mention that there are something like 50,000-75,000 total trade dollars in existence?
EDIT: On second thought, maybe 75-100k is a more accurate range.
The 100K number appears to be extremely low. After redeemed/melted, exported/imported In Kirchgessner book the total number of Trade Dollars in the US after melting is 1,347,696. How do you get from 1.3 million to 100K?
That estimate was as of 1887 and was only for estimated coins in the US; it did not include an estimate for coins still overseas which would push up the number even higher. However, there is also 140 years of attrition to account for.
That being said, I have little to base my estimate on other than gut feel as a trade dollar collector and inferences based on the total number of graded coins (as well as auction appearances but this is less easy data to compile). Given the value of the coins, that they are often counterfeited, and their overall scarcity, I would expect a fairly high percentage to be graded. There are ~40k grading events between PCGS and NGC (not accounting for crackouts but also not accounting for PCGS details coins which are not included in the census).
I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong or very wrong as my estimate is not based on much hard data. However, I'm pretty confident the number is much closer to 100k than 1mm.
I agree with your sentiments, whatever the number. I have no idea how many buyers there are for cull or very low-quality Trade dollars, but don't see it as relevant to any buyer willing to spend more than nominal amounts for one or building a set. I infer it's two different markets.
Given the mintages, there has to be at least proportionately a lot more dreck quality supply for the non-US series I collect. Someone owns it, but It's of no relevance to me because I don't want it.
@lermish said:
I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong or very wrong as my estimate is not based on much hard data. However, I'm pretty confident the number is much closer to 100k than 1mm.
Below is the Kirchgessner chart of US government records of the Trade Dollar. This chart does not take into account any movement or melting of Trade Dollars by private parties. It is difficult to put a hard number on the for the survival of Trade Dollars as there is about 27 million Trade Dollars unaccounted for that were shipped to Asia. The majority of the exported Trade Dollars shipped to Asia will have chop marks and most likely many were melted. If your comment was there are about 100K surviving Trade Dollars without chop marks that could straight grade, I would agree.
@lermish said:
I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong or very wrong as my estimate is not based on much hard data. However, I'm pretty confident the number is much closer to 100k than 1mm.
Below is the Kirchgessner chart of US government records of the Trade Dollar. This chart does not take into account any movement or melting of Trade Dollars by private parties. It is difficult to put a hard number on the for the survival of Trade Dollars as there is about 27 million Trade Dollars unaccounted for that were shipped to Asia. The majority of the exported Trade Dollars shipped to Asia will have chop marks and most likely many were melted. If your comment was there are about 100K surviving Trade Dollars without chop marks that could straight grade, I would agree.
I spoke with @keoj yesterday after my post to double check my thinking and figures. There is, of course, no way to be sure of the numbers and this is almost purely conjecture. Joe (Kirchgessner) tended to think the 100k number for total extant population of all trade dollars, in all conditions, was in the right ballpark and, if inaccurate, likely is off by tens of thousands of coins, not hundreds of thousands.
As an aside, the chart above shows estimated domestic only population of trade dollars in 1887 and doesn't take into account decades of domestic melting and other general attrition.
Another aside; the vast, overwhelming majority of t$s in Asia were melted as you mentioned. "Hordes" are uncovered from time to time but those are usually 10-20 coins excavated during construction. A forgotten personal trove, not a wholesale business' inventory. I do not believe 27mm coins are unaccounted for in Asia; they went into the melting pot (There are not accounting inventories to backup this claim but there are numerous contemporary accounts describing the practice).
@Lermish, I think the better Trade Dollar question is what is more likely a remaining total population of less than or more than 100,000? To answer that we must dig deeper into the history and by history I mean Asian history and not from an American cultural context as we read and interpret history.
Any “missing” Trade Dollars would have needed to survive multiple wars, multiple enemy occupations, violent political revolutions, Maos Cultural Revolution. During such upheaval who in their right mind would have hung on to silver emblazoned USA even IF you thought they were beautiful?
Add that to the history that tells us US Trade Dollars were ultimately unwanted both domestically in the US and overseas. For that matter….American Collectors today are not pounding our doors to acquire our “damaged coins” though we hope for that day.
Last time I looked in PCGS Trade Dollar commentary by year/mint the estimated population was well south of 100,000.
Caches do pop up and based on PCGS “block grading analyzing of cert numbers” we have recently seen caches of roughly 25/50 suddenly all get graded in time to be auctioned. I now own some of them and wish the coin lore would get spilled.
US Trade Dollars in collections today amazingly survived because they were simply forgotten…..loose change tossed into a bag that no one knew about. They were made for one purpose alone unlike any other American Coin and that was to be exported ultimately going into a melting pot in Asia to be remade into other coinage or jewelry.
I have a few thousand dollars in face US silver from dimes to dollars but would not melt any, I may need to sit and make lowballs in my late retirement years, since those will become quite rare.
(Cont)…..any Trade Dollars that somehow remained hidden despite multiple wars and the occupation of the Imperial Japanese Army, they then had to make it through the Cultural Revolution in which China's Red Guards confiscated so-called “feudal” and “bourgeois” property from private citizens including gold/silver.
So when I look at a chopped Trade Dollars, I know that unlike the GSA Hordes, the Trade Dollars has a powerful story and was not meant to be here today.
(Cont)…..any Trade Dollars that somehow remained hidden despite multiple wars and the occupation of the Imperial Japanese Army, they then had to make it through the Cultural Revolution in which China's Red Guards confiscated so-called “feudal” and “bourgeois” property from private citizens including gold/silver.
So when I look at a chopped Trade Dollars, I know that unlike the GSA Hordes, the Trade Dollars has a powerful story and was not meant to be here today.
Indeed. People ignore simple facts like during the depression a trade dollar was worth only about 28c and even a single trade dollar felt like a substantial loss. Then to add insult to injury you had to have dozens of them to melt to net about 26c each. This, no doubt had an impact on their availability today.
Some people would treat it like confederate currency was treated in the '50's and '60's.
"Add that to the history that tells us US Trade Dollars were ultimately unwanted both domestically in the US and overseas. For that matter….American Collectors today are not pounding our doors to acquire our “damaged coins” though we hope for that day."
Most were used in China and itis not against current law to counterfeit chopmarks, perhaps not even in the US. One thing is sure though nobody is going to take good examples and add chopmarks. This would seem to suggest that some of the "used" coins could at least approach the value of "undamaged" pieces.
@cladking said: "Add that to the history that tells us US Trade Dollars were ultimately unwanted both domestically in the US and overseas. For that matter….American Collectors today are not pounding our doors to acquire our “damaged coins” though we hope for that day."
Most were used in China and itis not against current law to counterfeit chopmarks, perhaps not even in the US. One thing is sure though nobody is going to take good examples and add chopmarks. This would seem to suggest that some of the "used" coins could at least approach the value of "undamaged" pieces.
This is very far from sure and is assuredly incorrect (partially depending on your definition of good examples).
In the somewhat recent past (within living memory), chopmarked examples were valued more highly than non-chopped examples. It's not rare to come across examples which have counterfeit chops dating back 60-70 years.
Even today, several dates are worth far more chopmarked than not. Since the TPGs do not verify the legitimacy of the chops themselves, it can still be tempting to place false chops. Fortunately, fake chops sound easier to make than they are and are usually easily spotted by the chopmark connoisseur...unfortunately they frequently trick TPGs and the less knowledgeable.
@Cuprinkor said:
I remember when chopmarked Trade Dollars were considered damaged coins.
Some people still do consider them to be damaged
all circulation is damage as is bag marks. The question is just like toning, is it market acceptable and does the state of preservation add or diminish value compared to comps. Chop Marks are a very specific type of circulation that does not overly diminish a coins value although it does make it more dependent to eye appeal. Several Chopped Trades sell at a premium to their unchopped twins but as a whole (like for like) they do trade back but not nearly as far as they used to.
@cladking said: "Add that to the history that tells us US Trade Dollars were ultimately unwanted both domestically in the US and overseas. For that matter….American Collectors today are not pounding our doors to acquire our “damaged coins” though we hope for that day."
Most were used in China and itis not against current law to counterfeit chopmarks, perhaps not even in the US. One thing is sure though nobody is going to take good examples and add chopmarks. This would seem to suggest that some of the "used" coins could at least approach the value of "undamaged" pieces.
In the somewhat recent past (within living memory), chopmarked examples were valued more highly than non-chopped examples. It's not rare to come across examples which have counterfeit chops dating back 60-70 years.
Even today, several dates are worth far more chopmarked than not. Since the TPGs do not verify the legitimacy of the chops themselves, it can still be tempting to place false chops. Fortunately, fake chops sound easier to make than they are and are usually easily spotted by the chopmark connoisseur...unfortunately they frequently trick TPGs and the less knowledgeable.
Yes. I am aware. What I meant was that chopmarked examples can approach the value of correspoonding unmarked examples even in high grades and of scarcer dates. I've seen many very attractive very original AU's that are more desirable than unmarked specimens. I seriously doubt you'll find buyers for Gem coins even with attractive marks at the same price as un "damaged" coins.
Comments
So do I and I also remember that PCGS refused to slab them and would return them raw in a "body bag".
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
? They are specifically exempted from the ban.
The prohibition contained in § 82.1 against the exportation, melting, or treatment of 5-cent coins shall not apply to 5-cent coins inscribed with the years 1942, 1943, 1944, or 1945 that are composed of an alloy comprising copper, silver and manganese.
Yay, I’m calling the refiner on Monday
That estimate was as of 1887 and was only for estimated coins in the US; it did not include an estimate for coins still overseas which would push up the number even higher. However, there is also 140 years of attrition to account for.
That being said, I have little to base my estimate on other than gut feel as a trade dollar collector and inferences based on the total number of graded coins (as well as auction appearances but this is less easy data to compile). Given the value of the coins, that they are often counterfeited, and their overall scarcity, I would expect a fairly high percentage to be graded. There are ~40k grading events between PCGS and NGC (not accounting for crackouts but also not accounting for PCGS details coins which are not included in the census).
I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong or very wrong as my estimate is not based on much hard data. However, I'm pretty confident the number is much closer to 100k than 1mm.
As someone who collects chopmarked coins (by quantity, they represent >50% of my collection), they are of course damaged. But, given the nature of the damage and all of my normal comments (basically all sub-70 coins are damaged, etc etc, blah blah) , I don't view the damage as a negative.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
I have no idea how to price them, but then I don't have any.
@JohnF publishes an excellent retail and wholesale price guide for chopped t$ in the Greysheet.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
I agree with your sentiments, whatever the number. I have no idea how many buyers there are for cull or very low-quality Trade dollars, but don't see it as relevant to any buyer willing to spend more than nominal amounts for one or building a set. I infer it's two different markets.
Given the mintages, there has to be at least proportionately a lot more dreck quality supply for the non-US series I collect. Someone owns it, but It's of no relevance to me because I don't want it.
Below is the Kirchgessner chart of US government records of the Trade Dollar. This chart does not take into account any movement or melting of Trade Dollars by private parties. It is difficult to put a hard number on the for the survival of Trade Dollars as there is about 27 million Trade Dollars unaccounted for that were shipped to Asia. The majority of the exported Trade Dollars shipped to Asia will have chop marks and most likely many were melted. If your comment was there are about 100K surviving Trade Dollars without chop marks that could straight grade, I would agree.
I spoke with @keoj yesterday after my post to double check my thinking and figures. There is, of course, no way to be sure of the numbers and this is almost purely conjecture. Joe (Kirchgessner) tended to think the 100k number for total extant population of all trade dollars, in all conditions, was in the right ballpark and, if inaccurate, likely is off by tens of thousands of coins, not hundreds of thousands.
As an aside, the chart above shows estimated domestic only population of trade dollars in 1887 and doesn't take into account decades of domestic melting and other general attrition.
Another aside; the vast, overwhelming majority of t$s in Asia were melted as you mentioned. "Hordes" are uncovered from time to time but those are usually 10-20 coins excavated during construction. A forgotten personal trove, not a wholesale business' inventory. I do not believe 27mm coins are unaccounted for in Asia; they went into the melting pot (There are not accounting inventories to backup this claim but there are numerous contemporary accounts describing the practice).
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
@Lermish, I think the better Trade Dollar question is what is more likely a remaining total population of less than or more than 100,000? To answer that we must dig deeper into the history and by history I mean Asian history and not from an American cultural context as we read and interpret history.
Any “missing” Trade Dollars would have needed to survive multiple wars, multiple enemy occupations, violent political revolutions, Maos Cultural Revolution. During such upheaval who in their right mind would have hung on to silver emblazoned USA even IF you thought they were beautiful?
Add that to the history that tells us US Trade Dollars were ultimately unwanted both domestically in the US and overseas. For that matter….American Collectors today are not pounding our doors to acquire our “damaged coins” though we hope for that day.
Last time I looked in PCGS Trade Dollar commentary by year/mint the estimated population was well south of 100,000.
Caches do pop up and based on PCGS “block grading analyzing of cert numbers” we have recently seen caches of roughly 25/50 suddenly all get graded in time to be auctioned. I now own some of them and wish the coin lore would get spilled.
US Trade Dollars in collections today amazingly survived because they were simply forgotten…..loose change tossed into a bag that no one knew about. They were made for one purpose alone unlike any other American Coin and that was to be exported ultimately going into a melting pot in Asia to be remade into other coinage or jewelry.
I have a few thousand dollars in face US silver from dimes to dollars but would not melt any, I may need to sit and make lowballs in my late retirement years, since those will become quite rare.
(Cont)…..any Trade Dollars that somehow remained hidden despite multiple wars and the occupation of the Imperial Japanese Army, they then had to make it through the Cultural Revolution in which China's Red Guards confiscated so-called “feudal” and “bourgeois” property from private citizens including gold/silver.
So when I look at a chopped Trade Dollars, I know that unlike the GSA Hordes, the Trade Dollars has a powerful story and was not meant to be here today.
https://matrix.berkeley.edu/research-article/confiscated-objects-of-the-cultural-revolution-a-visual-interview-with-puck-engman/
The government > @InfantryColonel said:
Indeed. People ignore simple facts like during the depression a trade dollar was worth only about 28c and even a single trade dollar felt like a substantial loss. Then to add insult to injury you had to have dozens of them to melt to net about 26c each. This, no doubt had an impact on their availability today.
Some people would treat it like confederate currency was treated in the '50's and '60's.
"Add that to the history that tells us US Trade Dollars were ultimately unwanted both domestically in the US and overseas. For that matter….American Collectors today are not pounding our doors to acquire our “damaged coins” though we hope for that day."
Most were used in China and itis not against current law to counterfeit chopmarks, perhaps not even in the US. One thing is sure though nobody is going to take good examples and add chopmarks. This would seem to suggest that some of the "used" coins could at least approach the value of "undamaged" pieces.
This is very far from sure and is assuredly incorrect (partially depending on your definition of good examples).
In the somewhat recent past (within living memory), chopmarked examples were valued more highly than non-chopped examples. It's not rare to come across examples which have counterfeit chops dating back 60-70 years.
Even today, several dates are worth far more chopmarked than not. Since the TPGs do not verify the legitimacy of the chops themselves, it can still be tempting to place false chops. Fortunately, fake chops sound easier to make than they are and are usually easily spotted by the chopmark connoisseur...unfortunately they frequently trick TPGs and the less knowledgeable.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
all circulation is damage as is bag marks. The question is just like toning, is it market acceptable and does the state of preservation add or diminish value compared to comps. Chop Marks are a very specific type of circulation that does not overly diminish a coins value although it does make it more dependent to eye appeal. Several Chopped Trades sell at a premium to their unchopped twins but as a whole (like for like) they do trade back but not nearly as far as they used to.
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
Yes. I am aware. What I meant was that chopmarked examples can approach the value of correspoonding unmarked examples even in high grades and of scarcer dates. I've seen many very attractive very original AU's that are more desirable than unmarked specimens. I seriously doubt you'll find buyers for Gem coins even with attractive marks at the same price as un "damaged" coins.