@bgr said:
I think that you can focus on outlier events to identify areas where you can exploit the margins of the probabilities that the sports books are using the set the lines. Given how few event outcomes there are in total, the data-set available for training a predictive model (even with tens of thousands of outcomes) is weak, and it would be especially weak in those outlier events. I expect weather. inclement weather... temperature... I think this is the reasoning behind the "bet on a home underdog". That could also just be something I heard somewhere or read on a sign but based on how I understand these models to be built that's where I would see opportunity for over fitting.
Tell ya what, I'm. sure you are far smarter than I am with math and analytics than I ever will be so if you can figure out a solid model. I'll cut you in on my winnings
15%? 20%?
I was most definitely n.o.t. trying to say that I am ready and able to do that. I know enough to know how little I know about this one - I was just thinking aloud.
I think about my picks but being honest I'm too lazy to look up pitching variables and other stats, you brought up a valid point a few weeks ago when my buddy dropped a bomb on Shane Smith against the Royals, a pretty easy search would have shown the Royals don't strike out much so stuff like that is worth the research time.
The thing with Sports betting is when you think you have an edge the thing that you don't expect usually happens or something happens that shouldn't and you end up losing.
You can win but it takes luck imo more than anything
I always laugh at these subscription sports pick services. If anyone was beating the books, there's no way they would bother trying to make a few extra dollars advertising their sports picks. In my opinion, they are all frauds, each and every one of them.
What's even funnier, they never offer to give back your money. But they may offer, after a losing week, to give you their next week's picks for free. Now why on earth when you're not only losing money on his picks, but losing money on the subscription fees, would you even want this fraud's picks for free? But I guess folks get suckered in with their clever sales pitch.
this is how those work. the snake involved gives one side of a game to 1/2 of subscribers, and the other side to the other half. so he's guaranteed to look like a genius to 50% of unsuspecting souls who opened their wallets. he'll slither around and do what it takes to retain the half he gave a losing pick to (free picks, etc), but the half who connected are now fully indoctrinated and a part of the cult, so to speak.
so on and so forth, every week. imagine being lucky enough to be on the right side of things for a handful of weeks in a row. you'd all of a sudden view this individual as a soothsayer and money would become no object for his sublime "service." it's a racket, straight up.
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I think about my picks but being honest I'm too lazy to look up pitching variables and other stats, you brought up a valid point a few weeks ago when my buddy dropped a bomb on Shane Smith against the Royals, a pretty easy search would have shown the Royals don't strike out much so stuff like that is worth the research time.
The thing with Sports betting is when you think you have an edge the thing that you don't expect usually happens or something happens that shouldn't and you end up losing.
You can win but it takes luck imo more than anything
Parlay:Over 43 tonight,with ML Lions,Bills,Broncos.
Smash it! 👊🏼
1 for 5
Best way to lose is fast without any sweating out a run in the last inning to complete the parlay lol
Lotsa ways to lose but it will keep. me interested in this game between 2 of my all time worst teams to ever bet.
I'm hoping Seattle smashes them for my buddy @galaxy27
Another flat game for the over tonight. Dud.
Another last 2 minutes game. Can't believe it got tied up. Had to hope for OT. Was only shot to win it if went to OT.
I wonder if Galaxy used up all his nitroglycerin pills? 😉
Very nice win. 👍
Push for me on o/u. Par kept alive.
Considering the way that game was going for ya into the 4th quarter, a push on that bet ain't bad at all.
this is how those work. the snake involved gives one side of a game to 1/2 of subscribers, and the other side to the other half. so he's guaranteed to look like a genius to 50% of unsuspecting souls who opened their wallets. he'll slither around and do what it takes to retain the half he gave a losing pick to (free picks, etc), but the half who connected are now fully indoctrinated and a part of the cult, so to speak.
so on and so forth, every week. imagine being lucky enough to be on the right side of things for a handful of weeks in a row. you'd all of a sudden view this individual as a soothsayer and money would become no object for his sublime "service." it's a racket, straight up.
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
thanks bud
if Seattle had lost that game i was going to require professional help
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet