@Cuprinkor said:
I remember when chopmarked Trade Dollars were considered damaged coins.
Some people still do consider them to be damaged
So do I and I also remember that PCGS refused to slab them and would return them raw in a "body bag".
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
The prohibition contained in § 82.1 against the exportation, melting, or treatment of 5-cent coins shall not apply to 5-cent coins inscribed with the years 1942, 1943, 1944, or 1945 that are composed of an alloy comprising copper, silver and manganese.
@Catbert said:
Bottom line, there will be no shortage of Morgan dollars if some are melted.
Is this a good time to mention that there are something like 50,000-75,000 total trade dollars in existence?
EDIT: On second thought, maybe 75-100k is a more accurate range.
The 100K number appears to be extremely low. After redeemed/melted, exported/imported In Kirchgessner book the total number of Trade Dollars in the US after melting is 1,347,696. How do you get from 1.3 million to 100K?
That estimate was as of 1887 and was only for estimated coins in the US; it did not include an estimate for coins still overseas which would push up the number even higher. However, there is also 140 years of attrition to account for.
That being said, I have little to base my estimate on other than gut feel as a trade dollar collector and inferences based on the total number of graded coins (as well as auction appearances but this is less easy data to compile). Given the value of the coins, that they are often counterfeited, and their overall scarcity, I would expect a fairly high percentage to be graded. There are ~40k grading events between PCGS and NGC (not accounting for crackouts but also not accounting for PCGS details coins which are not included in the census).
I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong or very wrong as my estimate is not based on much hard data. However, I'm pretty confident the number is much closer to 100k than 1mm.
@Cuprinkor said:
I remember when chopmarked Trade Dollars were considered damaged coins.
Some people still do consider them to be damaged
So do I and I also remember that PCGS refused to slab them and would return them raw in a "body bag".
As someone who collects chopmarked coins (by quantity, they represent >50% of my collection), they are of course damaged. But, given the nature of the damage and all of my normal comments (basically all sub-70 coins are damaged, etc etc, blah blah) , I don't view the damage as a negative.
@Catbert said:
Bottom line, there will be no shortage of Morgan dollars if some are melted.
Is this a good time to mention that there are something like 50,000-75,000 total trade dollars in existence?
EDIT: On second thought, maybe 75-100k is a more accurate range.
The 100K number appears to be extremely low. After redeemed/melted, exported/imported In Kirchgessner book the total number of Trade Dollars in the US after melting is 1,347,696. How do you get from 1.3 million to 100K?
That estimate was as of 1887 and was only for estimated coins in the US; it did not include an estimate for coins still overseas which would push up the number even higher. However, there is also 140 years of attrition to account for.
That being said, I have little to base my estimate on other than gut feel as a trade dollar collector and inferences based on the total number of graded coins (as well as auction appearances but this is less easy data to compile). Given the value of the coins, that they are often counterfeited, and their overall scarcity, I would expect a fairly high percentage to be graded. There are ~40k grading events between PCGS and NGC (not accounting for crackouts but also not accounting for PCGS details coins which are not included in the census).
I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong or very wrong as my estimate is not based on much hard data. However, I'm pretty confident the number is much closer to 100k than 1mm.
I agree with your sentiments, whatever the number. I have no idea how many buyers there are for cull or very low-quality Trade dollars, but don't see it as relevant to any buyer willing to spend more than nominal amounts for one or building a set. I infer it's two different markets.
Given the mintages, there has to be at least proportionately a lot more dreck quality supply for the non-US series I collect. Someone owns it, but It's of no relevance to me because I don't want it.
@lermish said:
I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong or very wrong as my estimate is not based on much hard data. However, I'm pretty confident the number is much closer to 100k than 1mm.
Below is the Kirchgessner chart of US government records of the Trade Dollar. This chart does not take into account any movement or melting of Trade Dollars by private parties. It is difficult to put a hard number on the for the survival of Trade Dollars as there is about 27 million Trade Dollars unaccounted for that were shipped to Asia. The majority of the exported Trade Dollars shipped to Asia will have chop marks and most likely many were melted. If your comment was there are about 100K surviving Trade Dollars without chop marks that could straight grade, I would agree.
@lermish said:
I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong or very wrong as my estimate is not based on much hard data. However, I'm pretty confident the number is much closer to 100k than 1mm.
Below is the Kirchgessner chart of US government records of the Trade Dollar. This chart does not take into account any movement or melting of Trade Dollars by private parties. It is difficult to put a hard number on the for the survival of Trade Dollars as there is about 27 million Trade Dollars unaccounted for that were shipped to Asia. The majority of the exported Trade Dollars shipped to Asia will have chop marks and most likely many were melted. If your comment was there are about 100K surviving Trade Dollars without chop marks that could straight grade, I would agree.
I spoke with @keoj yesterday after my post to double check my thinking and figures. There is, of course, no way to be sure of the numbers and this is almost purely conjecture. Joe (Kirchgessner) tended to think the 100k number for total extant population of all trade dollars, in all conditions, was in the right ballpark and, if inaccurate, likely is off by tens of thousands of coins, not hundreds of thousands.
As an aside, the chart above shows estimated domestic only population of trade dollars in 1887 and doesn't take into account decades of domestic melting and other general attrition.
Another aside; the vast, overwhelming majority of t$s in Asia were melted as you mentioned. "Hordes" are uncovered from time to time but those are usually 10-20 coins excavated during construction. A forgotten personal trove, not a wholesale business' inventory. I do not believe 27mm coins are unaccounted for in Asia; they went into the melting pot (There are not accounting inventories to backup this claim but there are numerous contemporary accounts describing the practice).
@Lermish, I think the better Trade Dollar question is what is more likely a remaining total population of less than or more than 100,000? To answer that we must dig deeper into the history and by history I mean Asian history and not from an American cultural context as we read and interpret history.
Any “missing” Trade Dollars would have needed to survive multiple wars, multiple enemy occupations, violent political revolutions, Maos Cultural Revolution. During such upheaval who in their right mind would have hung on to silver emblazoned USA even IF you thought they were beautiful?
Add that to the history that tells us US Trade Dollars were ultimately unwanted both domestically in the US and overseas. For that matter….American Collectors today are not pounding our doors to acquire our “damaged coins” though we hope for that day.
Last time I looked in PCGS Trade Dollar commentary by year/mint the estimated population was well south of 100,000.
Caches do pop up and based on PCGS “block grading analyzing of cert numbers” we have recently seen caches of roughly 25/50 suddenly all get graded in time to be auctioned. I now own some of them and wish the coin lore would get spilled.
US Trade Dollars in collections today amazingly survived because they were simply forgotten…..loose change tossed into a bag that no one knew about. They were made for one purpose alone unlike any other American Coin and that was to be exported ultimately going into a melting pot in Asia to be remade into other coinage or jewelry.
I have a few thousand dollars in face US silver from dimes to dollars but would not melt any, I may need to sit and make lowballs in my late retirement years, since those will become quite rare.
(Cont)…..any Trade Dollars that somehow remained hidden despite multiple wars and the occupation of the Imperial Japanese Army, they then had to make it through the Cultural Revolution in which China's Red Guards confiscated so-called “feudal” and “bourgeois” property from private citizens including gold/silver.
So when I look at a chopped Trade Dollars, I know that unlike the GSA Hordes, the Trade Dollars has a powerful story and was not meant to be here today.
(Cont)…..any Trade Dollars that somehow remained hidden despite multiple wars and the occupation of the Imperial Japanese Army, they then had to make it through the Cultural Revolution in which China's Red Guards confiscated so-called “feudal” and “bourgeois” property from private citizens including gold/silver.
So when I look at a chopped Trade Dollars, I know that unlike the GSA Hordes, the Trade Dollars has a powerful story and was not meant to be here today.
Indeed. People ignore simple facts like during the depression a trade dollar was worth only about 28c and even a single trade dollar felt like a substantial loss. Then to add insult to injury you had to have dozens of them to melt to net about 26c each. This, no doubt had an impact on their availability today.
Some people would treat it like confederate currency was treated in the '50's and '60's.
"Add that to the history that tells us US Trade Dollars were ultimately unwanted both domestically in the US and overseas. For that matter….American Collectors today are not pounding our doors to acquire our “damaged coins” though we hope for that day."
Most were used in China and itis not against current law to counterfeit chopmarks, perhaps not even in the US. One thing is sure though nobody is going to take good examples and add chopmarks. This would seem to suggest that some of the "used" coins could at least approach the value of "undamaged" pieces.
@cladking said: "Add that to the history that tells us US Trade Dollars were ultimately unwanted both domestically in the US and overseas. For that matter….American Collectors today are not pounding our doors to acquire our “damaged coins” though we hope for that day."
Most were used in China and itis not against current law to counterfeit chopmarks, perhaps not even in the US. One thing is sure though nobody is going to take good examples and add chopmarks. This would seem to suggest that some of the "used" coins could at least approach the value of "undamaged" pieces.
This is very far from sure and is assuredly incorrect (partially depending on your definition of good examples).
In the somewhat recent past (within living memory), chopmarked examples were valued more highly than non-chopped examples. It's not rare to come across examples which have counterfeit chops dating back 60-70 years.
Even today, several dates are worth far more chopmarked than not. Since the TPGs do not verify the legitimacy of the chops themselves, it can still be tempting to place false chops. Fortunately, fake chops sound easier to make than they are and are usually easily spotted by the chopmark connoisseur...unfortunately they frequently trick TPGs and the less knowledgeable.
@Cuprinkor said:
I remember when chopmarked Trade Dollars were considered damaged coins.
Some people still do consider them to be damaged
all circulation is damage as is bag marks. The question is just like toning, is it market acceptable and does the state of preservation add or diminish value compared to comps. Chop Marks are a very specific type of circulation that does not overly diminish a coins value although it does make it more dependent to eye appeal. Several Chopped Trades sell at a premium to their unchopped twins but as a whole (like for like) they do trade back but not nearly as far as they used to.
@cladking said: "Add that to the history that tells us US Trade Dollars were ultimately unwanted both domestically in the US and overseas. For that matter….American Collectors today are not pounding our doors to acquire our “damaged coins” though we hope for that day."
Most were used in China and itis not against current law to counterfeit chopmarks, perhaps not even in the US. One thing is sure though nobody is going to take good examples and add chopmarks. This would seem to suggest that some of the "used" coins could at least approach the value of "undamaged" pieces.
In the somewhat recent past (within living memory), chopmarked examples were valued more highly than non-chopped examples. It's not rare to come across examples which have counterfeit chops dating back 60-70 years.
Even today, several dates are worth far more chopmarked than not. Since the TPGs do not verify the legitimacy of the chops themselves, it can still be tempting to place false chops. Fortunately, fake chops sound easier to make than they are and are usually easily spotted by the chopmark connoisseur...unfortunately they frequently trick TPGs and the less knowledgeable.
Yes. I am aware. What I meant was that chopmarked examples can approach the value of correspoonding unmarked examples even in high grades and of scarcer dates. I've seen many very attractive very original AU's that are more desirable than unmarked specimens. I seriously doubt you'll find buyers for Gem coins even with attractive marks at the same price as un "damaged" coins.
@coastaljerseyguy said:
If the price melts all the damaged, harshly cleaned common dates, good riddance.
Most of what's getting destroyed is going to be almost anything worth less than $50 and is hard to sell. Obviously this will include large numbers of circulated coins and a few ugly Uncs. People tend to sell when prices collapse and buy when the price is high but this doesn't necessarily mean they're willing to buy all the less desirable morgans on the market.
When the backlog at the refineries clears there will be a premium for 90% and it might mean even more melting.
@MsMorrisine said:
from the anecdotes on the pm forum, as the price has run up people have been unloading silver and especially 90%
it is possible to buy 90% at melt and sometime below
one report has a refiner turning away silver business
Yes, of course. Every time they raise the discount they are turning away more business.
US investors and tired long have been the primary source of silver to make up the shortfall in mining for five years now but this is drawing to a close because so much is gone now and because it is not keeping up with spiraling "investor" demand. Much of this "investor" demand isn't so much individuals or funds but rather positioning of large holder, buyers, and users. There also is a great deal of individual buying throughout the world except in the US because of debt and a move away from the dollar.
@thebeav said:
I'm surprised Warren Buffett never got back into silver, or that he never saw this coming.
Not the kind of speculative asset that Buffet has ever favored, except that one notable time. He had always been a value investor who likes stocks that generate cash. Commodities do not generate cash flow, you are simply speculating on the price of the commodity.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Slabbed MS dollars (especially better dates) will always carry a premium above melt imo. For proper retail pricing - It’s just a matter of doing some math in the markup equation. Or referring to CDN bid / CPG.
Commodities do not generate cash flow, you are simply speculating on the price of the commodity.
Silver is different. You are speculating on the genius of mankind and that's one very solid investment.
That has NOTHING to do with what I said. Possibly less than nothing. The point was about Buffet's investment principles. You literally LIED by quoting only the second half of the paragraph to make the point seem different than it was.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
"Not the kind of speculative asset that Buffet has ever favored, except that one notable time. He had always been a value investor who likes stocks that generate cash."
Silver could become cash if the world comes to trade in technology and the genius of man. Until this century it was the sweat of his brow and it's already becoming adaptation. Perhaps it will be silver in those lean years of the 30's and '40's before other sources become available.
I maintain that this is a unique situation that might outshine any of ted Butler's dreams.
@cladking said:
Yes, I'm aware you didn't mean it quite that way;
"Not the kind of speculative asset that Buffet has ever favored, except that one notable time. He had always been a value investor who likes stocks that generate cash."
Silver could become cash if the world comes to trade in technology and the genius of man. Until this century it was the sweat of his brow and it's already becoming adaptation. Perhaps it will be silver in those lean years of the 30's and '40's before other sources become available.
I maintain that this is a unique situation that might outshine any of ted Butler's dreams.
For the record, that's why I've always like silver and platinum more than gold whose uses are predominantly cosmetic. The market doesn't agree. Lol
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Where is this record? Who's winning? What's the score man?!
I like Warren B, he has done ok for himself and his investors.. the white precious metals are used in industry and I don't see that ending anytime soon...
@braddick said:
There are hundreds of millions of silver dollars. How many would have to be melted to make a lick of difference as >to the availability or collectabilty of the series?
In the future, if there are more collectors looking for basic common MSDs, you could see the lower-priced AU's and MS's not available and more $$$ chasing higher-graded coins in Mint State.
@291fifth said:
Is it also possible that both gold and silver are now viewed as being significantly overpriced? The real market makers in these metals may now unloading before prices decline. Can't happen? Ask the Hunt brothers.
Not applicable.
Silver went up 20-fold in a bit over a decade and about 8-fold in 18 months. Nothing like that today with either gold OR silver.
I can't speak for silver, but as a longtime Fed Watcher and monetary analyst, I see institutional support and bids underneath gold. I still believe we are going significantly higher...and I was saying $3,000 in 2030 and $5,000 by 2035 even before Covid.
There is so much stuff coming in across counter, it has to be melted, I along with many other, pay what base d on where i can ship or sell too, its getting so high nobody wants culls anywhere close to melt
@braddick said:
There are hundreds of millions of silver dollars. How many would have to be melted to make a lick of difference as >to the availability or collectabilty of the series?
In the future, if there are more collectors looking for basic common MSDs, you could see the lower-priced AU's and MS's not available and more $$$ chasing higher-graded coins in Mint State.
While many consider the lowly silver dollar as... dreck.... there is a fascination with it for those just getting interested in coins, etc. Classic design, evokes the old west, etc. So I suspect the demand will be there in the future.
It will be interesting to discover what rarities will result from this great silver melt currently in progress. Perhaps 90% currently is not being melted as much, due to refiners being overloaded and preferring to melt the more pure items now.... once they get caught up, the 90% will go also.
@braddick said:
There are hundreds of millions of silver dollars. How many would have to be melted to make a lick of difference as >to the availability or collectabilty of the series?
In the future, if there are more collectors looking for basic common MSDs, you could see the lower-priced AU's and MS's not available and more $$$ chasing higher-graded coins in Mint State.
In the future, when silver is $400 per ounce, even the gems will be melted.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@tincup said:
It will be interesting to discover what rarities will result from this great silver melt currently in progress. Perhaps 90% currently is not being melted as much, due to refiners being overloaded and preferring to melt the more pure items now.... once they get caught up, the 90% will go also.
I don't know but I think they like the 90% and are simply swamped in it so lower their bids,
@tincup said:
It will be interesting to discover what rarities will result from this great silver melt currently in progress. Perhaps 90% currently is not being melted as much, due to refiners being overloaded and preferring to melt the more pure items now.... once they get caught up, the 90% will go also.
I don't know but I think they like the 90% and are simply swamped in it so lower their bids,
No. A lot of places (refiners) aren't even buying it now. Their warehouses are full.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Each time I went to my local dealer to consider the divestment of the bullion (like the justifiably unloved Spouses) and I asked what he was gonna do it with it - the answer was simple, melt em baby!
I have zero attachment to my assets once they are out of my hands.
@MilesWaits said:
Each time I went to my local dealer to consider the divestment of the bullion (like the justifiably unloved Spouses)
This thread just triggered my memory of the Spouse coins I bought on impulse one night back in the day after having a few too many beers....they just got tossed in the box at the bank and forgotten about. It almost feels like found money this morning.
Well the spreads are widening between bid and ask.. The wholesalers are packed to the gunnels with unopened boxes of Ag in all forms and are weeks out in payment in some cases.. Not sure where silver will be in the coming months, The melts may continue. I cannot imagine melting my PCGS MS66 CC dollars! I couldn't do it, even if silver hits $500 per ounce...
@Coin Finder said:
Well the spreads are widening between bid and ask.. The wholesalers are packed to the gunnels with unopened boxes of Ag in all forms and are weeks out in payment in some cases.. Not sure where silver will be in the coming months, The melts may continue. I cannot imagine melting my PCGS MS66 CC dollars! I couldn't do it, even if silver hits $500 per ounce...
@jmlanzaf would. He hates Carson City for some reason.
@Coin Finder said:
Well the spreads are widening between bid and ask.. The wholesalers are packed to the gunnels with unopened boxes of Ag in all forms and are weeks out in payment in some cases.. Not sure where silver will be in the coming months, The melts may continue. I cannot imagine melting my PCGS MS66 CC dollars! I couldn't do it, even if silver hits $500 per ounce...
@jmlanzaf would. He hates Carson City for some reason.
Lol.
If melt is $500 and no one wants to pay $500 retail, you bet your bootie I'd melt it. You want to "save it", come up with $500 + shipping.
Everyone thinks there should be a numismatic premium but no one wants to pay it.
List VF 1921 Morgans for $38 + shipping and see how slowly they move.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@tincup said:
It will be interesting to discover what rarities will result from this great silver melt currently in progress. Perhaps 90% currently is not being melted as much, due to refiners being overloaded and preferring to melt the more pure items now.... once they get caught up, the 90% will go also.
I don't know but I think they like the 90% and are simply swamped in it so lower their bids,
No. A lot of places (refiners) aren't even buying it now. Their warehouses are full.
There need be only one buyer.
If silver goes to $75 right now they will find a means to buy more at some price. They are overextended with warehouses full of silver at $40.
@Coin Finder said:
Well the spreads are widening between bid and ask.. The wholesalers are packed to the gunnels with unopened boxes of Ag in all forms and are weeks out in payment in some cases.. Not sure where silver will be in the coming months, The melts may continue. I cannot imagine melting my PCGS MS66 CC dollars! I couldn't do it, even if silver hits $500 per ounce...
@jmlanzaf would. He hates Carson City for some reason.
Lol.
If melt is $500 and no one wants to pay $500 retail, you bet your bootie I'd melt it. You want to "save it", come up with $500 + shipping.
Everyone thinks there should be a numismatic premium but no one wants to pay it.
List VF 1921 Morgans for $38 + shipping and see how slowly they move.
1921 morgans getting melted doesn't break my heart. It's far sadder to see things like nice VG and F 19th century British minors being dispatched. There are all sorts of scarcer coins being destroyed as their numismatic premiums erode beneath them. People pay little attention to such things. Look at dealers junk buckets and offer to buy if you want to preserve coins for the future. Just expect to pay a premium for the priveledge. Not many bother.
Comments
So do I and I also remember that PCGS refused to slab them and would return them raw in a "body bag".
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
? They are specifically exempted from the ban.
The prohibition contained in § 82.1 against the exportation, melting, or treatment of 5-cent coins shall not apply to 5-cent coins inscribed with the years 1942, 1943, 1944, or 1945 that are composed of an alloy comprising copper, silver and manganese.
Yay, I’m calling the refiner on Monday
That estimate was as of 1887 and was only for estimated coins in the US; it did not include an estimate for coins still overseas which would push up the number even higher. However, there is also 140 years of attrition to account for.
That being said, I have little to base my estimate on other than gut feel as a trade dollar collector and inferences based on the total number of graded coins (as well as auction appearances but this is less easy data to compile). Given the value of the coins, that they are often counterfeited, and their overall scarcity, I would expect a fairly high percentage to be graded. There are ~40k grading events between PCGS and NGC (not accounting for crackouts but also not accounting for PCGS details coins which are not included in the census).
I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong or very wrong as my estimate is not based on much hard data. However, I'm pretty confident the number is much closer to 100k than 1mm.
As someone who collects chopmarked coins (by quantity, they represent >50% of my collection), they are of course damaged. But, given the nature of the damage and all of my normal comments (basically all sub-70 coins are damaged, etc etc, blah blah) , I don't view the damage as a negative.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
I have no idea how to price them, but then I don't have any.
@JohnF publishes an excellent retail and wholesale price guide for chopped t$ in the Greysheet.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
I agree with your sentiments, whatever the number. I have no idea how many buyers there are for cull or very low-quality Trade dollars, but don't see it as relevant to any buyer willing to spend more than nominal amounts for one or building a set. I infer it's two different markets.
Given the mintages, there has to be at least proportionately a lot more dreck quality supply for the non-US series I collect. Someone owns it, but It's of no relevance to me because I don't want it.
Below is the Kirchgessner chart of US government records of the Trade Dollar. This chart does not take into account any movement or melting of Trade Dollars by private parties. It is difficult to put a hard number on the for the survival of Trade Dollars as there is about 27 million Trade Dollars unaccounted for that were shipped to Asia. The majority of the exported Trade Dollars shipped to Asia will have chop marks and most likely many were melted. If your comment was there are about 100K surviving Trade Dollars without chop marks that could straight grade, I would agree.
I spoke with @keoj yesterday after my post to double check my thinking and figures. There is, of course, no way to be sure of the numbers and this is almost purely conjecture. Joe (Kirchgessner) tended to think the 100k number for total extant population of all trade dollars, in all conditions, was in the right ballpark and, if inaccurate, likely is off by tens of thousands of coins, not hundreds of thousands.
As an aside, the chart above shows estimated domestic only population of trade dollars in 1887 and doesn't take into account decades of domestic melting and other general attrition.
Another aside; the vast, overwhelming majority of t$s in Asia were melted as you mentioned. "Hordes" are uncovered from time to time but those are usually 10-20 coins excavated during construction. A forgotten personal trove, not a wholesale business' inventory. I do not believe 27mm coins are unaccounted for in Asia; they went into the melting pot (There are not accounting inventories to backup this claim but there are numerous contemporary accounts describing the practice).
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
@Lermish, I think the better Trade Dollar question is what is more likely a remaining total population of less than or more than 100,000? To answer that we must dig deeper into the history and by history I mean Asian history and not from an American cultural context as we read and interpret history.
Any “missing” Trade Dollars would have needed to survive multiple wars, multiple enemy occupations, violent political revolutions, Maos Cultural Revolution. During such upheaval who in their right mind would have hung on to silver emblazoned USA even IF you thought they were beautiful?
Add that to the history that tells us US Trade Dollars were ultimately unwanted both domestically in the US and overseas. For that matter….American Collectors today are not pounding our doors to acquire our “damaged coins” though we hope for that day.
Last time I looked in PCGS Trade Dollar commentary by year/mint the estimated population was well south of 100,000.
Caches do pop up and based on PCGS “block grading analyzing of cert numbers” we have recently seen caches of roughly 25/50 suddenly all get graded in time to be auctioned. I now own some of them and wish the coin lore would get spilled.
US Trade Dollars in collections today amazingly survived because they were simply forgotten…..loose change tossed into a bag that no one knew about. They were made for one purpose alone unlike any other American Coin and that was to be exported ultimately going into a melting pot in Asia to be remade into other coinage or jewelry.
I have a few thousand dollars in face US silver from dimes to dollars but would not melt any, I may need to sit and make lowballs in my late retirement years, since those will become quite rare.
(Cont)…..any Trade Dollars that somehow remained hidden despite multiple wars and the occupation of the Imperial Japanese Army, they then had to make it through the Cultural Revolution in which China's Red Guards confiscated so-called “feudal” and “bourgeois” property from private citizens including gold/silver.
So when I look at a chopped Trade Dollars, I know that unlike the GSA Hordes, the Trade Dollars has a powerful story and was not meant to be here today.
https://matrix.berkeley.edu/research-article/confiscated-objects-of-the-cultural-revolution-a-visual-interview-with-puck-engman/
The government > @InfantryColonel said:
Indeed. People ignore simple facts like during the depression a trade dollar was worth only about 28c and even a single trade dollar felt like a substantial loss. Then to add insult to injury you had to have dozens of them to melt to net about 26c each. This, no doubt had an impact on their availability today.
Some people would treat it like confederate currency was treated in the '50's and '60's.
"Add that to the history that tells us US Trade Dollars were ultimately unwanted both domestically in the US and overseas. For that matter….American Collectors today are not pounding our doors to acquire our “damaged coins” though we hope for that day."
Most were used in China and itis not against current law to counterfeit chopmarks, perhaps not even in the US. One thing is sure though nobody is going to take good examples and add chopmarks. This would seem to suggest that some of the "used" coins could at least approach the value of "undamaged" pieces.
This is very far from sure and is assuredly incorrect (partially depending on your definition of good examples).
In the somewhat recent past (within living memory), chopmarked examples were valued more highly than non-chopped examples. It's not rare to come across examples which have counterfeit chops dating back 60-70 years.
Even today, several dates are worth far more chopmarked than not. Since the TPGs do not verify the legitimacy of the chops themselves, it can still be tempting to place false chops. Fortunately, fake chops sound easier to make than they are and are usually easily spotted by the chopmark connoisseur...unfortunately they frequently trick TPGs and the less knowledgeable.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
all circulation is damage as is bag marks. The question is just like toning, is it market acceptable and does the state of preservation add or diminish value compared to comps. Chop Marks are a very specific type of circulation that does not overly diminish a coins value although it does make it more dependent to eye appeal. Several Chopped Trades sell at a premium to their unchopped twins but as a whole (like for like) they do trade back but not nearly as far as they used to.
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
Yes. I am aware. What I meant was that chopmarked examples can approach the value of correspoonding unmarked examples even in high grades and of scarcer dates. I've seen many very attractive very original AU's that are more desirable than unmarked specimens. I seriously doubt you'll find buyers for Gem coins even with attractive marks at the same price as un "damaged" coins.
As of this morning, spot at 48.91, dollars are melting at 37.60.
Quite a few have to be going into the pot at this level.
If the price melts all the damaged, harshly cleaned common dates, good riddance.
Most of what's getting destroyed is going to be almost anything worth less than $50 and is hard to sell. Obviously this will include large numbers of circulated coins and a few ugly Uncs. People tend to sell when prices collapse and buy when the price is high but this doesn't necessarily mean they're willing to buy all the less desirable morgans on the market.
When the backlog at the refineries clears there will be a premium for 90% and it might mean even more melting.
from the anecdotes on the pm forum, as the price has run up people have been unloading silver and especially 90%
it is possible to buy 90% at melt and sometime below
one report has a refiner turning away silver business
Yes, of course. Every time they raise the discount they are turning away more business.
US investors and tired long have been the primary source of silver to make up the shortfall in mining for five years now but this is drawing to a close because so much is gone now and because it is not keeping up with spiraling "investor" demand. Much of this "investor" demand isn't so much individuals or funds but rather positioning of large holder, buyers, and users. There also is a great deal of individual buying throughout the world except in the US because of debt and a move away from the dollar.
I'm surprised Warren Buffett never got back into silver, or that he never saw this coming.
Not the kind of speculative asset that Buffet has ever favored, except that one notable time. He had always been a value investor who likes stocks that generate cash. Commodities do not generate cash flow, you are simply speculating on the price of the commodity.
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Silver is different. You are speculating on the genius of mankind and that's one very solid investment.
Slabbed MS dollars (especially better dates) will always carry a premium above melt imo. For proper retail pricing - It’s just a matter of doing some math in the markup equation. Or referring to CDN bid / CPG.
That has NOTHING to do with what I said. Possibly less than nothing. The point was about Buffet's investment principles. You literally LIED by quoting only the second half of the paragraph to make the point seem different than it was.
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Yes, I'm aware you didn't mean it quite that way;
"Not the kind of speculative asset that Buffet has ever favored, except that one notable time. He had always been a value investor who likes stocks that generate cash."
Silver could become cash if the world comes to trade in technology and the genius of man. Until this century it was the sweat of his brow and it's already becoming adaptation. Perhaps it will be silver in those lean years of the 30's and '40's before other sources become available.
I maintain that this is a unique situation that might outshine any of ted Butler's dreams.
For the record, that's why I've always like silver and platinum more than gold whose uses are predominantly cosmetic. The market doesn't agree. Lol
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Where is this record? Who's winning? What's the score man?!
I like Warren B, he has done ok for himself and his investors.. the white precious metals are used in industry and I don't see that ending anytime soon...
In the future, if there are more collectors looking for basic common MSDs, you could see the lower-priced AU's and MS's not available and more $$$ chasing higher-graded coins in Mint State.
Not applicable.
Silver went up 20-fold in a bit over a decade and about 8-fold in 18 months. Nothing like that today with either gold OR silver.
I can't speak for silver, but as a longtime Fed Watcher and monetary analyst, I see institutional support and bids underneath gold. I still believe we are going significantly higher...and I was saying $3,000 in 2030 and $5,000 by 2035 even before Covid.
There is so much stuff coming in across counter, it has to be melted, I along with many other, pay what base d on where i can ship or sell too, its getting so high nobody wants culls anywhere close to melt
While many consider the lowly silver dollar as... dreck.... there is a fascination with it for those just getting interested in coins, etc. Classic design, evokes the old west, etc. So I suspect the demand will be there in the future.
It will be interesting to discover what rarities will result from this great silver melt currently in progress. Perhaps 90% currently is not being melted as much, due to refiners being overloaded and preferring to melt the more pure items now.... once they get caught up, the 90% will go also.
In the future, when silver is $400 per ounce, even the gems will be melted.
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I don't know but I think they like the 90% and are simply swamped in it so lower their bids,
No. A lot of places (refiners) aren't even buying it now. Their warehouses are full.
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Each time I went to my local dealer to consider the divestment of the bullion (like the justifiably unloved Spouses) and I asked what he was gonna do it with it - the answer was simple, melt em baby!
I have zero attachment to my assets once they are out of my hands.
This thread just triggered my memory of the Spouse coins I bought on impulse one night back in the day after having a few too many beers....they just got tossed in the box at the bank and forgotten about. It almost feels like found money this morning.
Jim
When is it getting there ? 2065 ?
I don't think that helps us here in the forums the next few years.
I started collecting just around the height of the Hunt brothers run. Paid $5 for this dime back then ... I'm close to breaking even!
Neither does your call for "more collectors" looking for gems. When does that happen? 2065?
Apparently, you missed the sarcasm.
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If you don't count the opportunity cost. $5 in an S&P 500 find in 1980 is about $300 today.
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Well the spreads are widening between bid and ask.. The wholesalers are packed to the gunnels with unopened boxes of Ag in all forms and are weeks out in payment in some cases.. Not sure where silver will be in the coming months, The melts may continue. I cannot imagine melting my PCGS MS66 CC dollars! I couldn't do it, even if silver hits $500 per ounce...
@jmlanzaf would. He hates Carson City for some reason.
Lol.
If melt is $500 and no one wants to pay $500 retail, you bet your bootie I'd melt it. You want to "save it", come up with $500 + shipping.
Everyone thinks there should be a numismatic premium but no one wants to pay it.
List VF 1921 Morgans for $38 + shipping and see how slowly they move.
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There need be only one buyer.
If silver goes to $75 right now they will find a means to buy more at some price. They are overextended with warehouses full of silver at $40.
1921 morgans getting melted doesn't break my heart. It's far sadder to see things like nice VG and F 19th century British minors being dispatched. There are all sorts of scarcer coins being destroyed as their numismatic premiums erode beneath them. People pay little attention to such things. Look at dealers junk buckets and offer to buy if you want to preserve coins for the future. Just expect to pay a premium for the priveledge. Not many bother.
I'd like to see all the weak struck circulated (less than AU) 22-S & 23-S Peace Dollars get melted.