You are incorrect. However, I'll let someone else chime in. The waiting room actually slows down the orders.
They sold-out the 225,000 2017 EU sets in 6 minutes with an HHL of 5, as i recall.
I can see my order history on my flips. I always bought the HHL. The 30,000 2019 reverse proof eagles sold out in under 10 minutes with an HHL of 1.
The 2021 2 coin reverse proof set had 125,000 mintage and HHL of 1.
I don't think "Bots" play any role in this "Waiting Room" system. I'd rather wait a little longer than have to face that issue and have a better chance to get what I want.
That wasn't my point. The demand for this issue was strong but not that strong. Back in the day, bots or no bots, it never would have taken that many hours to sell out. The waiting room was gone long before it sold out.
I think the only point about bots is that they can complete an order a lot faster than a human can. So they would contribute to more orders being processed faster in the past.
They actually probably don't end up processing faster. They do on the buyer end, but there's 200,000 people trying to get through a 10,000 person gate so you're limited by the system not the buyer.
The big dump on cancelled orders probably happens starting next week when they start to cull through them. They likely aren't in a hurry as this doesn't ship for nearly six weeks and its a weekend. There was another product that buyers did the same thing to a couple of years ago and they had to manually go through them all to do it.
You are incorrect. However, I'll let someone else chime in. The waiting room actually slows down the orders.
They sold-out the 225,000 2017 EU sets in 6 minutes with an HHL of 5, as i recall.
I can see my order history on my flips. I always bought the HHL. The 30,000 2019 reverse proof eagles sold out in under 10 minutes with an HHL of 1.
The 2021 2 coin reverse proof set had 125,000 mintage and HHL of 1.
I don't think "Bots" play any role in this "Waiting Room" system. I'd rather wait a little longer than have to face that issue and have a better chance to get what I want.
That wasn't my point. The demand for this issue was strong but not that strong. Back in the day, bots or no bots, it never would have taken that many hours to sell out. The waiting room was gone long before it sold out.
I think the only point about bots is that they can complete an order a lot faster than a human can. So they would contribute to more orders being processed faster in the past.
They actually probably don't end up processing faster. They do on the buyer end, but there's 200,000 people trying to get through a 10,000 person gate so you're limited by the system not the buyer.
I don't know enough about it on that end to comment one way or the other. It just seems as though, once you are in the gate, the bot moving significantly faster than a human would lead to more transactions completing in a shorter period of time.
The fact is, we simply don't know why it took over 200 minutes to complete 90K transactions this time around as compared to the volume per minute they achieved in the past.
I will argue that it was not "tepid demand," and speculate it was a combination of the waiting room limiting the number of people in the site at once, which gave people the luxury of dawdling without having to worry about being kicked off the site, and many of the usual suspects not getting all excited over the prospect of only obtaining one coin for a single $100 score.
Demand, tepid or otherwise, can only be accurately measured once people are able to buy what they want. The HHL is still in place, and they just made some available and immediately sold out. Demand is not tepid, and won't be at $105 so long as they are selling on eBay for $200.
@HalfDime said:
The big dump on cancelled orders probably happens starting next week when they start to cull through them. They likely aren't in a hurry as this doesn't ship for nearly six weeks and its a weekend. There was another product that buyers did the same thing to a couple of years ago and they had to manually go through them all to do it.
You're right that they have a lot more time, but I'd say the culling began in earnest yesterday. I know a bunch of people who had orders canceled for exceeding HHL, and we've seen ~1,000 back in stock today so far.
@HalfDime said:
The big dump on cancelled orders probably happens starting next week when they start to cull through them. They likely aren't in a hurry as this doesn't ship for nearly six weeks and its a weekend. There was another product that buyers did the same thing to a couple of years ago and they had to manually go through them all to do it.
You're right that they have a lot more time, but I'd say the culling began in earnest yesterday. I know a bunch of people who had orders canceled for exceeding HHL, and we've seen ~1,000 back in stock today so far.
Agreed. This isn't a manual process, and it takes no time at all identify multiple orders going to the same name at the same address. Speculation that "over 20K" out of 90K orders are destined to be canceled was nothing if not uninformed.
~1K, or more than 5%, is plenty for the first day. Expect to see more. Especially after some payments fail. But anyone expecting thousands upon thousands to be available for them to buy, 99 at a clip, for an immediate double on eBay, are going to be very disappointed.
They are already priced at $105. Aftermarket prices for similar items, with similar and even lower mintages, indicates what organic demand and the price ceiling is for these.
PLENTY of people already bought to sell to others. There are only so many others.
These will show up on TV over the next week or two, will be gobbled up by those chasing labels, and it will be over. The flip already is, as evidenced by Pinehurst's reduced bid.
Anyone thinking they will be able to sell 100 to a dealer at $165+ will be disappointed, because, at the point anyone can get their hands on 100, the dealers will be done buying. By then, you'll be selling them on eBay, one at a time, into a declining market as dealers pull back and the public loses interest.
You are incorrect. However, I'll let someone else chime in. The waiting room actually slows down the orders.
They sold-out the 225,000 2017 EU sets in 6 minutes with an HHL of 5, as i recall.
I can see my order history on my flips. I always bought the HHL. The 30,000 2019 reverse proof eagles sold out in under 10 minutes with an HHL of 1.
The 2021 2 coin reverse proof set had 125,000 mintage and HHL of 1.
I don't think "Bots" play any role in this "Waiting Room" system. I'd rather wait a little longer than have to face that issue and have a better chance to get what I want.
That wasn't my point. The demand for this issue was strong but not that strong. Back in the day, bots or no bots, it never would have taken that many hours to sell out. The waiting room was gone long before it sold out.
I think the only point about bots is that they can complete an order a lot faster than a human can. So they would contribute to more orders being processed faster in the past.
They actually probably don't end up processing faster. They do on the buyer end, but there's 200,000 people trying to get through a 10,000 person gate so you're limited by the system not the buyer.
I don't know enough about it on that end to comment one way or the other. It just seems as though, once you are in the gate, the bot moving significantly faster than a human would lead to more transactions completing in a shorter period of time.
The fact is, we simply don't know why it took over 200 minutes to complete 90K transactions this time around as compared to the volume per minute they achieved in the past.
I will argue that it was not "tepid demand," and speculate it was a combination of the waiting room limiting the number of people in the site at once, which gave people the luxury of dawdling without having to worry about being kicked off the site, and many of the usual suspects not getting all excited over the prospect of only obtaining one coin for a single $100 score.
Demand, tepid or otherwise, can only be accurately measured once people are able to buy what they want. The HHL is still in place, and they just made some available and immediately sold out. Demand is not tepid, and won't be at $105 so long as they are selling on eBay for $200.
You don't know enough about it but you'll still argue it. The bot will get the the data entry faster but once it hits send it can't go through the system any faster than if you hit send at the same time. Bots may win more than humans, but they don't cause faster processing on the seller end when you are bandwidth limited.
The waiting room was ended before the sell out. You couldn't take your time after it ended... well, you could because it wasn't selling out... but you didn't have a place in line anymore. Demand was, comparatively, not that hot or out would have sold out earlier like they did in the old days and even last year with the FH
Anyone thinking they will be able to sell 100 to a dealer at $165+ will be disappointed, because, at the point anyone can get their hands on 100, the dealers will be done buying. By then, you'll be selling them on eBay, one at a time, into a declining market as dealers pull back and the public loses interest.
Take a look at the Orderbook section of Pure's listing (under the image of the coin). Currently there are buyers seeking 1,850 coins with a floor of $200. Still enough to attract flippers with bulk qty. Just saying I don't think Pinehurst's drop is the best indicator of the market, at least not yet.
You are incorrect. However, I'll let someone else chime in. The waiting room actually slows down the orders.
They sold-out the 225,000 2017 EU sets in 6 minutes with an HHL of 5, as i recall.
I can see my order history on my flips. I always bought the HHL. The 30,000 2019 reverse proof eagles sold out in under 10 minutes with an HHL of 1.
The 2021 2 coin reverse proof set had 125,000 mintage and HHL of 1.
I don't think "Bots" play any role in this "Waiting Room" system. I'd rather wait a little longer than have to face that issue and have a better chance to get what I want.
That wasn't my point. The demand for this issue was strong but not that strong. Back in the day, bots or no bots, it never would have taken that many hours to sell out. The waiting room was gone long before it sold out.
I think the only point about bots is that they can complete an order a lot faster than a human can. So they would contribute to more orders being processed faster in the past.
They actually probably don't end up processing faster. They do on the buyer end, but there's 200,000 people trying to get through a 10,000 person gate so you're limited by the system not the buyer.
I don't know enough about it on that end to comment one way or the other. It just seems as though, once you are in the gate, the bot moving significantly faster than a human would lead to more transactions completing in a shorter period of time.
The fact is, we simply don't know why it took over 200 minutes to complete 90K transactions this time around as compared to the volume per minute they achieved in the past.
I will argue that it was not "tepid demand," and speculate it was a combination of the waiting room limiting the number of people in the site at once, which gave people the luxury of dawdling without having to worry about being kicked off the site, and many of the usual suspects not getting all excited over the prospect of only obtaining one coin for a single $100 score.
Demand, tepid or otherwise, can only be accurately measured once people are able to buy what they want. The HHL is still in place, and they just made some available and immediately sold out. Demand is not tepid, and won't be at $105 so long as they are selling on eBay for $200.
You don't know enough about it but you'll still argue it. The bot will get the the data entry faster but once it hits send it can't go through the system any faster than if you hit send at the same time. Bots may win more than humans, but they don't cause faster processing on the seller end when you are bandwidth limited.
The waiting room was ended before the sell out. You couldn't take your time after it ended... well, you could because it wasn't selling out... but you didn't have a place in line anymore. Demand was, comparatively, not that hot or out would have sold out earlier like they did in the old days and even last year with the FH
???? If the bot is entering data faster, how is a transaction not completing faster? I know the waiting room ended before the sell out. But the waiting room significantly slowed things down while it was in effect, didn't it?
As I said, the last thing holding things back was people like you who would get excited over the prospect of a $1,000 score not getting worked up over a $100 score. That doesn't apply once HHLs are lifted, but absolutely would cause people to not quit their day job at noon to chase it. In the meantime, they did sell 90K, ONE AT A TIME, in less than 4 hours, none are available right now, and the HHL is still in effect.
So, yeah, what are we arguing about? Are you seriously trying to say demand is disappointing, or "not that hot"?
Anyone thinking they will be able to sell 100 to a dealer at $165+ will be disappointed, because, at the point anyone can get their hands on 100, the dealers will be done buying. By then, you'll be selling them on eBay, one at a time, into a declining market as dealers pull back and the public loses interest.
Take a look at the Orderbook section of Pure's listing (under the image of the coin). Currently there are buyers seeking 1,850 coins with a floor of $200. Still enough to attract flippers with bulk qty. Just saying I don't think Pinehurst's drop is the best indicator of the market, at least not yet.
This is fine. My point is that those orders will be filled the instant regular folks are able to get their hands on quantity. Pinehurst is the leading indicator. Not the last man standing.
Those Orderbook bidders expect to slab them and double their money. That market is going to evaporate 5 minutes after The Coin Vault, RCTV and Magic Mike go live next week.
While you see lots of completed eBay OGP sales at $200, not too many in slabs at $400+. That market is going to collapse once the TV guys blow out their 10K, plus what they have scooping up from the flippers, at around that price. Or less, if necessary.
After all, 100K is not 30K. Or 50K. Or even 75K. It's a significant number. And $105 is a lot higher than what the Mint used to ask for things like this. The V75 privys, with a lower mintage and not part of a 3 coin set, retail for around $300 raw. $200 is likely to be around retail for these, if not less. Not a wholesale floor for quantity.
Anyone thinking they will be able to sell 100 to a dealer at $165+ will be disappointed, because, at the point anyone can get their hands on 100, the dealers will be done buying. By then, you'll be selling them on eBay, one at a time, into a declining market as dealers pull back and the public loses interest.
Take a look at the Orderbook section of Pure's listing (under the image of the coin). Currently there are buyers seeking 1,850 coins with a floor of $200. Still enough to attract flippers with bulk qty. Just saying I don't think Pinehurst's drop is the best indicator of the market, at least not yet.
Yes, I believe Pure is a much more legitimate market price tracker than Pinehurts at this point.
You are incorrect. However, I'll let someone else chime in. The waiting room actually slows down the orders.
They sold-out the 225,000 2017 EU sets in 6 minutes with an HHL of 5, as i recall.
I can see my order history on my flips. I always bought the HHL. The 30,000 2019 reverse proof eagles sold out in under 10 minutes with an HHL of 1.
The 2021 2 coin reverse proof set had 125,000 mintage and HHL of 1.
I don't think "Bots" play any role in this "Waiting Room" system. I'd rather wait a little longer than have to face that issue and have a better chance to get what I want.
That wasn't my point. The demand for this issue was strong but not that strong. Back in the day, bots or no bots, it never would have taken that many hours to sell out. The waiting room was gone long before it sold out.
I think the only point about bots is that they can complete an order a lot faster than a human can. So they would contribute to more orders being processed faster in the past.
They actually probably don't end up processing faster. They do on the buyer end, but there's 200,000 people trying to get through a 10,000 person gate so you're limited by the system not the buyer.
I don't know enough about it on that end to comment one way or the other. It just seems as though, once you are in the gate, the bot moving significantly faster than a human would lead to more transactions completing in a shorter period of time.
The fact is, we simply don't know why it took over 200 minutes to complete 90K transactions this time around as compared to the volume per minute they achieved in the past.
I will argue that it was not "tepid demand," and speculate it was a combination of the waiting room limiting the number of people in the site at once, which gave people the luxury of dawdling without having to worry about being kicked off the site, and many of the usual suspects not getting all excited over the prospect of only obtaining one coin for a single $100 score.
Demand, tepid or otherwise, can only be accurately measured once people are able to buy what they want. The HHL is still in place, and they just made some available and immediately sold out. Demand is not tepid, and won't be at $105 so long as they are selling on eBay for $200.
You don't know enough about it but you'll still argue it. The bot will get the the data entry faster but once it hits send it can't go through the system any faster than if you hit send at the same time. Bots may win more than humans, but they don't cause faster processing on the seller end when you are bandwidth limited.
The waiting room was ended before the sell out. You couldn't take your time after it ended... well, you could because it wasn't selling out... but you didn't have a place in line anymore. Demand was, comparatively, not that hot or out would have sold out earlier like they did in the old days and even last year with the FH
???? If the bot is entering data faster, how is a transaction not completing faster? I know the waiting room ended before the sell out. But the waiting room significantly slowed things down while it was in effect, didn't it?
As I said, the last thing holding things back was people like you who would get excited over the prospect of a $1,000 score not getting worked up over a $100 score. That doesn't apply once HHLs are lifted, but absolutely would cause people to not quit their day job at noon to chase it. In the meantime, they did sell 90K, ONE AT A TIME, in less than 4 hours, none are available right now, and the HHL is still in effect.
So, yeah, what are we arguing about? Are you seriously trying to say demand is disappointing, or "not that hot"?
Imagine writing a check and then giving it to a teller. No matter how fast you wrote the check, the teller can only work so fast.
I bought 2. I just didn't enjoy it as much a when it was a race.
@changeofpace said:
Reportedly only 314 in stock. Not the deluge some expected. And what's up with HHL not being lifted yet?
Per the press released, HHL is in effect for 24 hours. It hasn't been on sale longer than 24 hours.
Actually, it has. It went on sale at noon yesterday.
I assume it's only business day hours. I doubt the mint has staff working today.
Why would you say that after they became available briefly around noon today? They didn't add themselves to inventory.
If the website is up and running, nothing would stop someone from changing the HHL at any time. 7:30 a.m. isn't really a "business day hour" either, yet something happens at that time almost every day, including weekends and holidays, after a hot release.
If inventory appears tomorrow at 7:30 a.m., and the HHL is still 1, it's not coming off unless and until they remain available for sale for 24 hours. Which means never, until they go Sold Out.
If the Mint can sell them all, one at a time, they have no interest in letting a few people scarf them all up to flip. Which is why they set the HHL at 1 in the first place. 10-20K are not going to be coming back, and the Mint is going to feel no pressure to lift the HHL.
@NJCoin said:
These will show up on TV over the next week or two, will be gobbled up by those chasing labels, and it will be over. The flip already is, as evidenced by Pinehurst's reduced bid.
Anyone thinking they will be able to sell 100 to a dealer at $165+ will be disappointed, because, at the point anyone can get their hands on 100, the dealers will be done buying.
It is way too early to say this is done, when this is the first of three special military silver eagles being released, and dealers will want sets of all three to sell.
I expect the next two to have higher mintages, so this one may be the key out of the three. Demand will probably be high as well for the sets.
If it goes this way, then dealers will have to buy back more coins to make the sets later. Otherwise they will have to hold inventory, but I doubt they will as they will want to cover expenses now, and later worry about the sets.
The 250th Marine Corp and Navy are still 3 months away from release.
Respectfully disagree Halfdime
Collectors will be looking to form sets of the branches being celebrated.
This is the first. The first always does well.
@NJCoin said:
These will show up on TV over the next week or two, will be gobbled up by those chasing labels, and it will be over. The flip already is, as evidenced by Pinehurst's reduced bid.
Anyone thinking they will be able to sell 100 to a dealer at $165+ will be disappointed, because, at the point anyone can get their hands on 100, the dealers will be done buying.
It is way too early to say this is done, when this is the first of three special military silver eagles being released, and dealers will want sets of all three to sell.
I expect the next two to have higher mintages, so this one may be the key out of the three. Demand will probably be high as well for the sets.
If it goes this way, then dealers will have to buy back more coins to make the sets later. Otherwise they will have to hold inventory, but I doubt they will as they will want to cover expenses now, and later worry about the sets.
The 250th Marine Corp and Navy are still 3 months away from release.
Agree to disagree. Keep in mind that the Big Boys got around 11K, separate and apart from what we are talking about now. What they hold back to create sets later, and what they sell now, leaving people to build their own sets, or not, will be up to each individual Big Boy.
Also keep in mind that interest in things like this tends to wane, rather than build or even stay stable, after the first release. No reason for dealers to sit on inventory and take the risk if they can get top dollar now.
Also, the mintages have already been set, and these went very well from everyone's perspective, other than vest pocket flippers who could not obtain quantity to flip at $105 each. I VERY seriously doubt the Mint will do anything different with the next two releases this year.
@changeofpace said:
Reportedly only 314 in stock. Not the deluge some expected. And what's up with HHL not being lifted yet?
Per the press released, HHL is in effect for 24 hours. It hasn't been on sale longer than 24 hours.
Actually, it has. It went on sale at noon yesterday.
I assume it's only business day hours. I doubt the mint has staff working today.
Why would you say that after they became available briefly around noon today? They didn't add themselves to inventory.
If the website is up and running, nothing would stop someone from changing the HHL at any time. 7:30 a.m. isn't really a "business day hour" either, yet something happens at that time almost every day, including weekends and holidays, after a hot release.
If inventory appears tomorrow at 7:30 a.m., and the HHL is still 1, it's not coming off unless and until they remain available for sale for 24 hours. Which means never, until they go Sold Out.
If the Mint can sell them all, one at a time, they have no interest in letting a few people scarf them all up to flip. Which is why they set the HHL at 1 in the first place. 10-20K are not going to be coming back, and the Mint is going to feel no pressure to lift the HHL.
If you've ever designed or built out a retail website and inventory system, you'd know that some processes are automated and some are not. It's highly likely that changing HHLs is a manual process because it is not something that happens often or has a large overhead. Whereas it is also highly likely that the mint has automated order cancellations (likely for credit card processing issues) and inventory restocking because there are thousands of these to deal with every year. These are likely processed in scripted processes once or several time a day.
@changeofpace said:
Reportedly only 314 in stock. Not the deluge some expected. And what's up with HHL not being lifted yet?
Per the press released, HHL is in effect for 24 hours. It hasn't been on sale longer than 24 hours.
Actually, it has. It went on sale at noon yesterday.
I assume it's only business day hours. I doubt the mint has staff working today.
Why would you say that after they became available briefly around noon today? They didn't add themselves to inventory.
If the website is up and running, nothing would stop someone from changing the HHL at any time. 7:30 a.m. isn't really a "business day hour" either, yet something happens at that time almost every day, including weekends and holidays, after a hot release.
If inventory appears tomorrow at 7:30 a.m., and the HHL is still 1, it's not coming off unless and until they remain available for sale for 24 hours. Which means never, until they go Sold Out.
If the Mint can sell them all, one at a time, they have no interest in letting a few people scarf them all up to flip. Which is why they set the HHL at 1 in the first place. 10-20K are not going to be coming back, and the Mint is going to feel no pressure to lift the HHL.
If you've ever designed or built out a retail website and inventory system, you'd know that some processes are automated and some are not. It's highly likely that changing HHLs is a manual process because it is not something that happens often or has a large overhead. Whereas it is also highly likely that the mint has automated order cancellations (likely for credit card processing issues) and inventory restocking because there are thousands of these to deal with every year. These are likely processed in scripted processes once or several time a day.
If you say so. I don't see why adjusting the HHL would be any more or less manual than making additional inventory available for sale.
Because whatever happened with the inventory did not happen at 7:30 a.m., like it usually does. And, it actually happened in two waves early this afternoon. Almost certainly manual. At least today.
Also, no reason the lifting of the HHL couldn't be automated for exactly 24 hours after release, if that's what they wanted to do. All questions will be answered by this noon on Monday, if not before then. My money is on the HHL remaining in place as long as inventory is gobbled up, one at a time, upon release.
@NJCoin said:
Also keep in mind that interest in things like this tends to wane, rather than build or even stay stable, after the first release. No reason for dealers to sit on inventory and take the risk if they can get top dollar now.
I agree and said that, the dealers will probably cover expenses now and be smart, then have to buy more later. Proof silver eagle demand right now is over 200k based on current mint sales, and this military version only has 100k. Add in the military collector demand and it won't be over in two weeks.
@NJCoin said:
Also keep in mind that interest in things like this tends to wane, rather than build or even stay stable, after the first release. No reason for dealers to sit on inventory and take the risk if they can get top dollar now.
I agree and said that, the dealers will probably cover expenses now and be smart, then have to buy more later. Proof silver eagle demand right now is over 200k based on current mint sales, and this military version only has 100k. Add in the military collector demand and it won't be over in two weeks.
I also pretty much agree with you, and think you are misunderstanding me.
What I mean by "over" is that the mass marketers will be selling them, in quantity, at inflated prices in many different slabs. They are the ones driving demand for raw coins at $200. They are happy to pay that, in quantity, for something they are going to throw in a slab for around $10 and then mark up to $300+. Otherwise, don't you wonder why the prices have been so stable, and why so many people are so anxious to pay up for something that won't be available for at least a month?
The fact that Pinehurst already pulled back tells me that the Big Boys are just about done. Then the trading on eBay will be flipper to retail. At which point it is doubtful there will be a lot of demand for raw at $200, when they were not that tough to get from the Mint for $105, if you are retail buyer who only wanted one.
And the Big Boys will be done. They will sell what they have, and what they have in the pipeline, in the next week or two, and then move on to the next thing.
They will hold back whatever they might want to be able to sell sets later, but I don't think that's going to be a big thing. If you want a set, you will build it yourself.
Because if the geniuses who came up with this thought sets were the way to go, the Mint would have sold them in a 3 coin set. For everyone who wants a set, there are likely multiple people only interested in one branch or another. I'm sure the Mint and Big Boys decided there would be more demand, at higher prices, by selling them individually.
Dealers will not be buying quantity later from us at higher prices. Because the margins won't be there. Or the demand.
The time to strike is now. Just wait. They'll be all over TV in the coming week or two. A month from now, they won't be. Until the next one comes out.
@VanHalen said:
So 7:30 a.m. ET tomorrow morning? 3:1 the HHL is still in place.
Hard to say, since nothing happened today at 7:30, but then did at noon. There will likely be something.
Whether or not it is significant is TBD, given they had all their initial orders by 3:30 p.m. yesterday, so it's unclear what cancels they will have tomorrow that they didn't have today. And, 1,000 was a pretty big drop today. But I do think there will be something sometime tomorrow.
The lifting of the HHL is actually less of a mystery. If it's there at midnight, there is absolutely no reason it won't still be there at 7:30 a.m.. Noon is another story.
I expected it to lift at noon today. It did not, and I don't think that had anything to do with it being a weekend. Either way, tomorrow will still be a weekend, so nothing is likely to change. I think at this point that there is likely to be a HHL of 1 as long as they are selling them, given how quickly they sold 1,000 today one at a time.
@NJCoin said:
I expected it to lift at noon today. It did not, and I don't think that had anything to do with it being a weekend. Either way, tomorrow will still be a weekend, so nothing is likely to change. I think at this point that there is likely to be a HHL of 1 as long as they are selling them, given how quickly they sold 1,000 today one at a time.
Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if the HHL stays in effect. By the way, there was a third wave later in the afternoon with another 450+ coins, so it was closer to 1,500 today.
@NJCoin said:
The fact that Pinehurst already pulled back tells me that the Big Boys are just about done. Then the trading on eBay will be flipper to retail. At which point it is doubtful there will be a lot of demand for raw at $200, when they were not that tough to get from the Mint for $105, if you are retail buyer who only wanted one.
Prices on Ebay are still selling for right around $200, so they have not dropped. Yes some dealers are not buying, but it appears that is where they have leveled out for now for raw. I think there is demand for 200k coins since its a proof, and they only made 100k. There was a lot more demand than supply also based on how fast it sold out with a HHL limit of 1. The same thing happened with the Flowing Hair silver medal. The Flowing Hair silver medals are now selling for $280 raw.
@NJCoin said:
The fact that Pinehurst already pulled back tells me that the Big Boys are just about done. Then the trading on eBay will be flipper to retail. At which point it is doubtful there will be a lot of demand for raw at $200, when they were not that tough to get from the Mint for $105, if you are retail buyer who only wanted one.
Prices on Ebay are still selling for right around $200, so they have not dropped. Yes some dealers are not buying, but it appears that is where they have leveled out for now for raw. I think there is demand for 200k coins since its a proof, and they only made 100k. There was a lot more demand than supply also based on how fast it sold out with a HHL limit of 1. The same thing happened with the Flowing Hair silver medal. The Flowing Hair silver medals are now selling for $280 raw.
You might very well be right. It's hard to say, other than to note that organic demand is certainly higher than 100K, based on the fast sell out, the premium, and the sales of similar items. That's why it was always going to be a clear winner,a nd why there is a HHL of 1.
I'm not sure what the FH silver at $280 tells us, since it's not an ASE, and it has twice the mintage. What happens to price when mintage is doubled? Does it go down 28%, 50%, etc.?
The price is $200 now because that's what dealers are paying to slab them and mark them up to $300+. That game is going to end as soon as the initial excitement dies down. Even sooner, once dealers hit their targets and pull their bids, as Pinehurst has already done.
Even if you are correct, and there is "demand for 200K," that isn't going to matter at the end of the day, because supply will never exceed 100K. People who want them now will pay up.
Unlike items with a mintage of 30-50K, or even less, there is no big track record of things with 6 figure mintages retaining elevated values over time. Unlike the grumps who don't understand how any modern product from the Mint is worth more than bullion, I get how something like this, with a mintage like this, will retain value at an original issue price of $105.
Just understand that $200+ is not organic retail demand. It's dealers buying to slab and mark up. Retail can't do the same thing, since their slabbing cost structure is vastly different, their access to special labels is severely restricted, and they don't have the same selling platform the dealers do.
We don't yet know where raw coins will settle when the dealers are done buying, but history suggests $200 will be a ceiling, not a floor.
How many plan to honor your commitment to sell at $200 if they go to $400 when they are in hand ? Past issues indicate many will not honor. That’s when the fun begins.
Edit: Many will.
@JimTyler said:
How many plan to honor your commitment to sell at $200 if they go to $400 when they are in hand ? Past issues indicate many will not honor. That’s when the fun begins.
Edit: Many will.
Interesting question, but unlikely to manifest here. 11K went out the door to the Big Boys before the festivities officially even began. The HHL of 1 prevented concentration in limited hands. The rapid sell out, one at a time, tells me plenty went into buyer's club member hands, where the bids will be firm and the flip already prearranged.
The one month shipping delay is going to allow the frenzy to end before "the fun begins." As I opined in other posts, dealers are controlling the eBay bid now. Not retail. Given how many are and will be offered for sale, and how few dealers will be speculatively bidding against each other to obtain quantity, $200 feels like the ceiling, not the floor here.
The advance Mint sales limited dealers' need to go into the secondary market, since they are going to have quantity to pre-sell without a needing to rely on a single flipper commitment being honored. I just don't think it's going to happen. Just as likely that sleazy dealers renege on their commitments if a robust slab market doesn't develop for these at $300+.
Of course, all bets will be off if all the slabs offered in the next week or two fly off the shelves at progressively increasing prices. But I just don't see that happening, given the quantities involved.
To put what NJ Coin has been saying in fewer words: The mint and the big boys have “arranged” the market in a way that allows them to maximize sales and profits with much less of the speculation and hassle of years gone by.
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
Comments
Per the press released, HHL is in effect for 24 hours. It hasn't been on sale longer than 24 hours.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Actually, it has. It went on sale at noon yesterday.
Currently available at 12:19PM still HHL of 1. Had the neighbor purchase another one for me. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
They actually probably don't end up processing faster. They do on the buyer end, but there's 200,000 people trying to get through a 10,000 person gate so you're limited by the system not the buyer.
This last drop had almost 700 coins. Still HHL 1. Good for collectors.
The big dump on cancelled orders probably happens starting next week when they start to cull through them. They likely aren't in a hurry as this doesn't ship for nearly six weeks and its a weekend. There was another product that buyers did the same thing to a couple of years ago and they had to manually go through them all to do it.
I don't know enough about it on that end to comment one way or the other. It just seems as though, once you are in the gate, the bot moving significantly faster than a human would lead to more transactions completing in a shorter period of time.
The fact is, we simply don't know why it took over 200 minutes to complete 90K transactions this time around as compared to the volume per minute they achieved in the past.
I will argue that it was not "tepid demand," and speculate it was a combination of the waiting room limiting the number of people in the site at once, which gave people the luxury of dawdling without having to worry about being kicked off the site, and many of the usual suspects not getting all excited over the prospect of only obtaining one coin for a single $100 score.
Demand, tepid or otherwise, can only be accurately measured once people are able to buy what they want. The HHL is still in place, and they just made some available and immediately sold out. Demand is not tepid, and won't be at $105 so long as they are selling on eBay for $200.
Predicting the mint is like predicting your girlfriend, we can try, but good luck. All we have is historical coin sales to go by and past patterns.
HHL wasn't lifted? The mint broke a pattern, see what I mean?
You're right that they have a lot more time, but I'd say the culling began in earnest yesterday. I know a bunch of people who had orders canceled for exceeding HHL, and we've seen ~1,000 back in stock today so far.
Store shows zero available at this point.
Agreed. This isn't a manual process, and it takes no time at all identify multiple orders going to the same name at the same address. Speculation that "over 20K" out of 90K orders are destined to be canceled was nothing if not uninformed.
~1K, or more than 5%, is plenty for the first day. Expect to see more. Especially after some payments fail. But anyone expecting thousands upon thousands to be available for them to buy, 99 at a clip, for an immediate double on eBay, are going to be very disappointed.
They are already priced at $105. Aftermarket prices for similar items, with similar and even lower mintages, indicates what organic demand and the price ceiling is for these.
PLENTY of people already bought to sell to others. There are only so many others.
These will show up on TV over the next week or two, will be gobbled up by those chasing labels, and it will be over. The flip already is, as evidenced by Pinehurst's reduced bid.
Anyone thinking they will be able to sell 100 to a dealer at $165+ will be disappointed, because, at the point anyone can get their hands on 100, the dealers will be done buying. By then, you'll be selling them on eBay, one at a time, into a declining market as dealers pull back and the public loses interest.
You don't know enough about it but you'll still argue it. The bot will get the the data entry faster but once it hits send it can't go through the system any faster than if you hit send at the same time. Bots may win more than humans, but they don't cause faster processing on the seller end when you are bandwidth limited.
The waiting room was ended before the sell out. You couldn't take your time after it ended... well, you could because it wasn't selling out... but you didn't have a place in line anymore. Demand was, comparatively, not that hot or out would have sold out earlier like they did in the old days and even last year with the FH
Take a look at the Orderbook section of Pure's listing (under the image of the coin). Currently there are buyers seeking 1,850 coins with a floor of $200. Still enough to attract flippers with bulk qty. Just saying I don't think Pinehurst's drop is the best indicator of the market, at least not yet.
???? If the bot is entering data faster, how is a transaction not completing faster? I know the waiting room ended before the sell out. But the waiting room significantly slowed things down while it was in effect, didn't it?
As I said, the last thing holding things back was people like you who would get excited over the prospect of a $1,000 score not getting worked up over a $100 score. That doesn't apply once HHLs are lifted, but absolutely would cause people to not quit their day job at noon to chase it. In the meantime, they did sell 90K, ONE AT A TIME, in less than 4 hours, none are available right now, and the HHL is still in effect.
So, yeah, what are we arguing about? Are you seriously trying to say demand is disappointing, or "not that hot"?
This is fine. My point is that those orders will be filled the instant regular folks are able to get their hands on quantity. Pinehurst is the leading indicator. Not the last man standing.
Those Orderbook bidders expect to slab them and double their money. That market is going to evaporate 5 minutes after The Coin Vault, RCTV and Magic Mike go live next week.
While you see lots of completed eBay OGP sales at $200, not too many in slabs at $400+. That market is going to collapse once the TV guys blow out their 10K, plus what they have scooping up from the flippers, at around that price. Or less, if necessary.
After all, 100K is not 30K. Or 50K. Or even 75K. It's a significant number. And $105 is a lot higher than what the Mint used to ask for things like this. The V75 privys, with a lower mintage and not part of a 3 coin set, retail for around $300 raw. $200 is likely to be around retail for these, if not less. Not a wholesale floor for quantity.
Wake me up when they start shipping 😴 💤
Yes, I believe Pure is a much more legitimate market price tracker than Pinehurts at this point.
BST references available on request
Imagine writing a check and then giving it to a teller. No matter how fast you wrote the check, the teller can only work so fast.
I bought 2. I just didn't enjoy it as much a when it was a race.
I assume it's only business day hours. I doubt the mint has staff working today.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Why would you say that after they became available briefly around noon today? They didn't add themselves to inventory.
If the website is up and running, nothing would stop someone from changing the HHL at any time. 7:30 a.m. isn't really a "business day hour" either, yet something happens at that time almost every day, including weekends and holidays, after a hot release.
If inventory appears tomorrow at 7:30 a.m., and the HHL is still 1, it's not coming off unless and until they remain available for sale for 24 hours. Which means never, until they go Sold Out.
If the Mint can sell them all, one at a time, they have no interest in letting a few people scarf them all up to flip. Which is why they set the HHL at 1 in the first place. 10-20K are not going to be coming back, and the Mint is going to feel no pressure to lift the HHL.
It is way too early to say this is done, when this is the first of three special military silver eagles being released, and dealers will want sets of all three to sell.
I expect the next two to have higher mintages, so this one may be the key out of the three. Demand will probably be high as well for the sets.
If it goes this way, then dealers will have to buy back more coins to make the sets later. Otherwise they will have to hold inventory, but I doubt they will as they will want to cover expenses now, and later worry about the sets.
The 250th Marine Corp and Navy are still 3 months away from release.
Respectfully disagree Halfdime
Collectors will be looking to form sets of the branches being celebrated.
This is the first. The first always does well.
Agree to disagree. Keep in mind that the Big Boys got around 11K, separate and apart from what we are talking about now. What they hold back to create sets later, and what they sell now, leaving people to build their own sets, or not, will be up to each individual Big Boy.
Also keep in mind that interest in things like this tends to wane, rather than build or even stay stable, after the first release. No reason for dealers to sit on inventory and take the risk if they can get top dollar now.
Also, the mintages have already been set, and these went very well from everyone's perspective, other than vest pocket flippers who could not obtain quantity to flip at $105 each. I VERY seriously doubt the Mint will do anything different with the next two releases this year.
If you've ever designed or built out a retail website and inventory system, you'd know that some processes are automated and some are not. It's highly likely that changing HHLs is a manual process because it is not something that happens often or has a large overhead. Whereas it is also highly likely that the mint has automated order cancellations (likely for credit card processing issues) and inventory restocking because there are thousands of these to deal with every year. These are likely processed in scripted processes once or several time a day.
http://ProofCollection.Net
If you say so. I don't see why adjusting the HHL would be any more or less manual than making additional inventory available for sale.
Because whatever happened with the inventory did not happen at 7:30 a.m., like it usually does. And, it actually happened in two waves early this afternoon. Almost certainly manual. At least today.
Also, no reason the lifting of the HHL couldn't be automated for exactly 24 hours after release, if that's what they wanted to do. All questions will be answered by this noon on Monday, if not before then. My money is on the HHL remaining in place as long as inventory is gobbled up, one at a time, upon release.
I agree and said that, the dealers will probably cover expenses now and be smart, then have to buy more later. Proof silver eagle demand right now is over 200k based on current mint sales, and this military version only has 100k. Add in the military collector demand and it won't be over in two weeks.
I also pretty much agree with you, and think you are misunderstanding me.
What I mean by "over" is that the mass marketers will be selling them, in quantity, at inflated prices in many different slabs. They are the ones driving demand for raw coins at $200. They are happy to pay that, in quantity, for something they are going to throw in a slab for around $10 and then mark up to $300+. Otherwise, don't you wonder why the prices have been so stable, and why so many people are so anxious to pay up for something that won't be available for at least a month?
The fact that Pinehurst already pulled back tells me that the Big Boys are just about done. Then the trading on eBay will be flipper to retail. At which point it is doubtful there will be a lot of demand for raw at $200, when they were not that tough to get from the Mint for $105, if you are retail buyer who only wanted one.
And the Big Boys will be done. They will sell what they have, and what they have in the pipeline, in the next week or two, and then move on to the next thing.
They will hold back whatever they might want to be able to sell sets later, but I don't think that's going to be a big thing. If you want a set, you will build it yourself.
Because if the geniuses who came up with this thought sets were the way to go, the Mint would have sold them in a 3 coin set. For everyone who wants a set, there are likely multiple people only interested in one branch or another. I'm sure the Mint and Big Boys decided there would be more demand, at higher prices, by selling them individually.
Dealers will not be buying quantity later from us at higher prices. Because the margins won't be there. Or the demand.
The time to strike is now. Just wait. They'll be all over TV in the coming week or two. A month from now, they won't be. Until the next one comes out.
So 7:30 a.m. ET tomorrow morning? 3:1 the HHL is still in place.
Hard to say, since nothing happened today at 7:30, but then did at noon. There will likely be something.
Whether or not it is significant is TBD, given they had all their initial orders by 3:30 p.m. yesterday, so it's unclear what cancels they will have tomorrow that they didn't have today. And, 1,000 was a pretty big drop today. But I do think there will be something sometime tomorrow.
The lifting of the HHL is actually less of a mystery. If it's there at midnight, there is absolutely no reason it won't still be there at 7:30 a.m.. Noon is another story.
I expected it to lift at noon today. It did not, and I don't think that had anything to do with it being a weekend. Either way, tomorrow will still be a weekend, so nothing is likely to change. I think at this point that there is likely to be a HHL of 1 as long as they are selling them, given how quickly they sold 1,000 today one at a time.
considering it's military, anyone think the hhl will stay at 1? should stay at 1? keeping it at 1 until the sell out sounds like a good idea
Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if the HHL stays in effect. By the way, there was a third wave later in the afternoon with another 450+ coins, so it was closer to 1,500 today.
Did some simple math.....~89,000 ASE 'sold' x $105 = $9,345,000.
$9.35 million in 3½ hours......pretty pretty good!
No flip at 7:30
It's been happening at noon. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Does it matter for most here unless and until they lift the HHL?
Prices on Ebay are still selling for right around $200, so they have not dropped. Yes some dealers are not buying, but it appears that is where they have leveled out for now for raw. I think there is demand for 200k coins since its a proof, and they only made 100k. There was a lot more demand than supply also based on how fast it sold out with a HHL limit of 1. The same thing happened with the Flowing Hair silver medal. The Flowing Hair silver medals are now selling for $280 raw.
You might very well be right. It's hard to say, other than to note that organic demand is certainly higher than 100K, based on the fast sell out, the premium, and the sales of similar items. That's why it was always going to be a clear winner,a nd why there is a HHL of 1.
I'm not sure what the FH silver at $280 tells us, since it's not an ASE, and it has twice the mintage. What happens to price when mintage is doubled? Does it go down 28%, 50%, etc.?
The price is $200 now because that's what dealers are paying to slab them and mark them up to $300+. That game is going to end as soon as the initial excitement dies down. Even sooner, once dealers hit their targets and pull their bids, as Pinehurst has already done.
Even if you are correct, and there is "demand for 200K," that isn't going to matter at the end of the day, because supply will never exceed 100K. People who want them now will pay up.
Unlike items with a mintage of 30-50K, or even less, there is no big track record of things with 6 figure mintages retaining elevated values over time. Unlike the grumps who don't understand how any modern product from the Mint is worth more than bullion, I get how something like this, with a mintage like this, will retain value at an original issue price of $105.
Just understand that $200+ is not organic retail demand. It's dealers buying to slab and mark up. Retail can't do the same thing, since their slabbing cost structure is vastly different, their access to special labels is severely restricted, and they don't have the same selling platform the dealers do.
We don't yet know where raw coins will settle when the dealers are done buying, but history suggests $200 will be a ceiling, not a floor.
So...I'm guessing that none have popped up as available today/Sunday?
How many plan to honor your commitment to sell at $200 if they go to $400 when they are in hand ? Past issues indicate many will not honor. That’s when the fun begins.
Edit: Many will.
yes
Interesting question, but unlikely to manifest here. 11K went out the door to the Big Boys before the festivities officially even began. The HHL of 1 prevented concentration in limited hands. The rapid sell out, one at a time, tells me plenty went into buyer's club member hands, where the bids will be firm and the flip already prearranged.
The one month shipping delay is going to allow the frenzy to end before "the fun begins." As I opined in other posts, dealers are controlling the eBay bid now. Not retail. Given how many are and will be offered for sale, and how few dealers will be speculatively bidding against each other to obtain quantity, $200 feels like the ceiling, not the floor here.
The advance Mint sales limited dealers' need to go into the secondary market, since they are going to have quantity to pre-sell without a needing to rely on a single flipper commitment being honored. I just don't think it's going to happen. Just as likely that sleazy dealers renege on their commitments if a robust slab market doesn't develop for these at $300+.
Of course, all bets will be off if all the slabs offered in the next week or two fly off the shelves at progressively increasing prices. But I just don't see that happening, given the quantities involved.
To put what NJ Coin has been saying in fewer words: The mint and the big boys have “arranged” the market in a way that allows them to maximize sales and profits with much less of the speculation and hassle of years gone by.
Late to the conversation. I did get the text notice about the sale but I passed. Bullion coin with a privy mark yada yada etc...
The Eagle looks like the Apollo 11 emblem !!! "to the moon !"
Almost didn't see the core design, it's camouflaged!!!
are we to believe that 15 people have spent $1,075 each for these???
PT Barnum is laughing up a storm somewhere!
Collect all the camo patterns. Genius ! This changes everything.
You can get this one for $76 less. No camouflage label though.
