I was surprised to see this on eBay as a "Buy it Now" for $1,465 + $5.65 ship = $1,470.65.
And just as gold prices exceeded $3,400 and put the melt value of it at $1,654.30 :
.
Now the question is, will I actually receive the item as shown ? If not, I assume eBay will take care of the buyer (me).
.
.
Well, that was a bust. The seller lied and indicated that "Buyer asked to cancel" [the order]. I did not, of course. Now I have to wait a couple days for the refund to go back on the credit card.
Had the seller just been honest and stated that they don't want to sell it, I would understand. But lying about it earned a negative feedback.
I was surprised to see this on eBay as a "Buy it Now" for $1,465 + $5.65 ship = $1,470.65.
And just as gold prices exceeded $3,400 and put the melt value of it at $1,654.30 :
.
Now the question is, will I actually receive the item as shown ? If not, I assume eBay will take care of the buyer (me).
.
.
Well, that was a bust. The seller lied and indicated that "Buyer asked to cancel" [the order]. I did not, of course. Now I have to wait a couple days for the refund to go back on the credit card.
Had the seller just been honest and stated that they don't want to sell it, I would understand. But lying about it earned a negative feedback.
.
Is it possible someone here tipped off the seller that he was selling it way too cheap?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I was surprised to see this on eBay as a "Buy it Now" for $1,465 + $5.65 ship = $1,470.65.
And just as gold prices exceeded $3,400 and put the melt value of it at $1,654.30 :
.
Now the question is, will I actually receive the item as shown ? If not, I assume eBay will take care of the buyer (me).
.
.
Well, that was a bust. The seller lied and indicated that "Buyer asked to cancel" [the order]. I did not, of course. Now I have to wait a couple days for the refund to go back on the credit card.
Had the seller just been honest and stated that they don't want to sell it, I would understand. But lying about it earned a negative feedback.
.
Is it possible someone here tipped off the seller that he was selling it way too cheap?
.
I suppose it is possible. Normally I wouldn't post an auction win until it is actually in my hands.
But the seller hadn't sold anything in over a year and the potential profit for me was only $180 or so.
So I wasn't too concerned about not getting the item.
@skier07 said:
I bought the following:
1848 $5 PCGS 55 @ $825 in 2016
1851 $5 NGC 55 @ $850 in 2015
1856 $5 PCGS 55 @ $850 in 2016
So those $5 gold coins each had 1/4 ounce of gold.....which means with gold at about $1,700 during this time a $5 Half Eagle had about $425 in gold...so you paid about a 100% premium for the coins, right ?
Now....I take it the supply of $5 Half-Eagles has increased (i.e., Fairmont and other hoards) which helped the premium to dissipate ?
Disappearing premiums is going to be something we all have to take into account now for gold coins.
@WCC said:
If the price of gold gets high enough, whether that's now or at a higher price, I wouldn't consider it surprising if gold >coins no one really wants as a collectible sell for less than melt.
Non-US gold does or did sell for melt for years. There isn't any reason this can't or should not apply to generic US >classic gold either. (Very) common US classic gold (high quality or not) are "widgets", with potentially a lot more >supply than collectors (as opposed to metal buyers) wanting it as a collectible.
There are nowhere near enough collectors to buy all the 1904 LH DE or 1924 Saints. There aren't enough collectors >who can afford it or want it. It's potentially not much different for other still common coins with a much lower >supply too.
My fear is that we destroy lots of these less-desirable common coins...and in the future someone discovers the beauty of these coins and wants affordable investment-quality coins (not necessarily numsimatic higher-gradeds) and there isn't enough to satiate demand...and before you know it an MS-63 1924 Saint is selling for 25% above the price of gold and there are articles we're sharing asking "What Were We Thinking ?" when we melted down millions of pre-1933 gold coins for bullion ?
How would one know how many were ever melted?
I understand the hypothetical concerns, but the anxiety seems unfounded.
Bullion‘s best play is as just that.
@coinbuf said:
Yes to a point, when gold spot was 2K an MS65 was selling for $500-$700 (or more) over spot. Today those same >MS65's are selling for maybe $100 over spot sometimes even a bit less. Pretty much anything under MS65 (keeping >in mind we are talking generic dates) is just a few dollars over spot.
I get why the premium would fall in %-terms and also in absolute dollars....but why SO MUCH ? Any thoughts, CB ?
The rapid rise in gold spot prices has evaporated the numismatic premiums for generic gold, rare and many branch >mint gold coins still see a premium currently. But if spot continues up at this pace numismatic premiums will >continue to evaporate. I don't follow the MS66 level much but have seen a few being offered in the $4,500 +/- >range recently, if gold spot goes to 5K the numismatic premium for even MS66 level coins would be absorbed into >the spot price.
What I am having trouble understanding is why the same dollar amount can't sustain at higher gold prices (meaning the premium falls in %-terms). During Covid, surcharges stuck on ASEs for years. Yet with gold, the rising gold price is KO'ing the premiums.
Now if the spot price were to slow down or stagnate at the 3K level for awhile we might see some premium for >MS65 coins reemerge, although I doubt we'd see the same level of premiums as when gold was 2K. At least that is >my view from a limited participation in the gold market.
Interesting thoughts, thanks CB !!
IIRC correctly, MS65 common dates were $2300-$2500 not that long ago and the coins have surged in price to around $3500 with the price of gold. The increase is purely because of the metal. Bullion prices are volatile. If the stock market stabilizes and the Fed can control inflation, gold prices will fall and may do so quickly leaving a large exposure to loss both in total value and percent. It is easier to convince someone building a set of silver eagles to swallow a couple of bucks.
Another way to look at this, there was enough numismatic demand to support $2300-$2500 gem Saint even if gold fell. There is essentially no numismatic demand to support prices above $3k if gold tanks.
Gold MAY fall if the stock market goes up again, but gold and stocks can move up together (for the most part they did from 2021 through 2024).
Gold supply/demand fundamentals are what is important, not necessarily the stock market or even inflation. Those take priority when gold's supply and demand are not in control.
You have major sources of demand -- CB's, Chinese insurance companies, SWFs, etc. -- all looking to add gold. Look at the corrections in gold the last year or two -- it is NOT letting you get back in if you missed the rise.
I said years ago we'd hit $3,000 by 2030 and $5,000 by 2035. Now I think we are more likely to hit $5,000 by 2030.
@cameonut2011 said:
The rapid rise in gold spot prices has evaporated the numismatic premiums for generic gold, rare and many branch >mint gold coins still see a premium currently. But if spot continues up at this pace numismatic premiums will >continue to evaporate. I don't follow the MS66 level much but have seen a few being offered in the $4,500 +/- >range recently, if gold spot goes to 5K the numismatic premium for even MS66 level coins would be absorbed into >the spot price.
I never thought of that but we're within striking distance of talking about that. I bought a very nice 1923-D MS-66 for $3,500 at FUN 2020 when gold was about $1,650. I agree with your figure -- comparable coins for that year/mint or similar rarities are in the mid-$4,000 range.
IIRC correctly, MS65 common dates were $2300-$2500 not that long ago and the coins have surged in price to >around $3500 with the price of gold. The increase is purely because of the metal.
Agreed....I think gold was just above/below $2,000 when you saw those MS-65 prices.
Another way to look at this, there was enough numismatic demand to support $2300-$2500 gem Saint even if gold >fell. There is essentially no numismatic demand to support prices above $3k if gold tanks.
It's a new risk. We ever get gold bullion up to some of the levels predicted by these uber-bulls and we'll be wondering here if MCMVII High Reliefs can hold THEIR premiums !!
I wonder when MS64 and lower common date Saints will begin going to the smelter. It would be interesting to see if the supply could be reduced enough to keep prices higher long term numismatically. Maybe Legend and some of the CAC only dealers will begin the great dreck purge and only the stickered coins will be saved. Any non CAC MS64+ or lower coin gets melted. 🤣
@cameonut2011 said:
I wonder when MS64 and lower common date Saints will begin going to the smelter. It would be interesting to see >if the supply could be reduced enough to keep prices higher long term numismatically. Maybe Legend and some of >the CAC blue dealers will begin the great dreck purge and only the stickered coins will be saved. Any non CAC 64+ >gets melted. 🤣
If silver hadn't spiked up and then collapsed in the wake of the Hunt Brothers Fiasco in 1980....you may well have had tons of silver coins like MSDs get melted once silver crossed $40/ounce. But the violent collapse eliminated the incentive to do that and it probably saved lots of today's valuable numismatic coins.
There was a 1980 New York Times article to that effect.
@cameonut2011 said:
I wonder when MS64 and lower common date Saints will begin going to the smelter. It would be interesting to see >if the supply could be reduced enough to keep prices higher long term numismatically. Maybe Legend and some of >the CAC blue dealers will begin the great dreck purge and only the stickered coins will be saved. Any non CAC 64+ >gets melted. 🤣
If silver hadn't spiked up and then collapsed in the wake of the Hunt Brothers Fiasco in 1980....you may well have had tons of silver coins like MSDs get melted once silver crossed $40/ounce. But the violent collapse eliminated the incentive to do that and it probably saved lots of today's valuable numismatic coins.
There was a 1980 New York Times article to that effect.
In late 1979 and early 1980, people were lined up to sell silver coins to dealers, often at 15-20% back of melt. I was one of them. At the time I heard credible reports that bags of Morgan/Peace dollars, circulated and uncirculated, were heading to the smelters. I'm sure that lots of valuable numismatic cons actually were lost. Many more were probably destroyed in the two decades that followed, since 90% silver coins frequently traded below spot, making it profitable to melt them.
@Overdate said:
In late 1979 and early 1980, people were lined up to sell silver coins to dealers, often at 15-20% back of melt. I was >one of them. At the time I heard credible reports that bags of Morgan/Peace dollars, circulated and uncirculated, >were heading to the smelters. I'm sure that lots of valuable numismatic cons actually were lost. Many more were >probably destroyed in the two decades that followed, since 90% silver coins frequently traded below spot, making it >profitable to melt them.
Silver went from like $18 to $45 in a matter of weeks. There was very little time to act. But more than gold, even folks who weren't into PMs knew about the spectacular rise in silver from earlier in the decade.
My father actually mused about what they could get for a sterling silver silverware set given to him and my mother on their Wedding Day....probably was a $1,000 gift from their parents and probably worth 10-20x that amount by 1979 or 1980....but no sale, my mother would have hit him over the head with the case if he tried to sell it.
Currently it’s at $3392. I would not be surprised to see it go higher.
Depends on investor pocket, outlook, and risk position.
I don’t see nice slabbed pieces going to the smelter. As a matter of fact many bumping up retail stock in this area. A friend bumping up prices from 95 pct CDN CPG to 97.5 pct of CDN CPG. Like it as an investment / inventory class but have other areas that bring better margins.
@Cougar1978 said:
Currently it’s at $3392. I would not be surprised to see it go higher.
Depends on investor pocket, outlook, and risk position.
I don’t see nice slabbed pieces going to the smelter. As a matter of fact many bumping up retail stock in this area. A friend bumping up prices from 95 pct CDN CPG to 97.5 pct of CDN CPG. Like it as an investment / inventory class but have other areas that bring better margins.
Hmmm...95% on common date 64 or lower is melt or even below..
@REALGATOR said:
Paid near $500 for this one when gold was around 1900. My guess is this type of material will track bullion. But if melting occurs perhaps we'll see premium prices for this type of graded gold that remains in the years to come?
I never saw that type of holder/label before.
What's the value today ? It's ~$800 in gold assuming no premium has materialized which would be counter to what we have seen.
If someone paid a premium years ago seeing how it has acted as gold moved 50-70% is the Big Question.
1848 $5 PCGS 55 @ $825 in 2016
1851 $5 NGC 55 @ $850 in 2015
1856 $5 PCGS 55 @ $850 in 2016
I would have a difficult time selling each coin for $850 today.
This trio has now been on Facebook for three days (they are not mine):
Not familiar with Half Eagles, these are Common or at least Non-Rare coins ?
Gold was about $1,150 - $1,350 for most of that time, so a 1/4 ounce coin had about $300 in gold, give-or-take. So you paid about 150-175% in premium so clearly there was some element of rarity or numismatic worth to the coins.
Clearly, gold having nearly tripled in price hurt the premium....did Fairmont or other hoards/finds impact these coins you think ?
They are not rare but they’re not nearly as common as the common date half eagles from the 20th century. IMHO an 1845 half eagle is much more numismatically interesting than a 1904 half eagle (300 vs 5000 survivors). Fairmont hasn’t helped and people also know they are more common than they were thought to be ten years ago. The rapid increase in the price of gold is of course the biggest factor. I think (maybe more hoping) when the price of gold stabilizes the premium will start to increase.
As the price goes too, high more and more coins become simply bullion valued. This happened in 1980 to silver coin. People were selling BU rolls of later date Mercury dimes and Walking liberty half dollars for silver bullion value. I was there --I seen it with my own eyes!
@skier07 said:
Fairmont hasn’t helped and people also know they are more common than they were thought to be ten years ago.
Just curious...any hoards found (other than Fairmont) or was it more of a drip-drip-drip from individiauls, coins from the attic, etc ?
The rapid increase in the price of gold is of course the biggest factor. I think (maybe more hoping) when the price of >gold stabilizes the premium will start to increase.
Agree on both counts. I also think that today's Gen Z'ers, Millenials, and even younger Baby Boomers inheriting gold coins their parents or grandparents or great grandparents treasured -- but they don't -- are being handed down (or inherited) and then sold for a few quick buck$$$.
My cousin is an estate lawyer and he recently handled an estate with about $35,000 in silver coins from over the decades.....about 5,200 silver coins in total..... 5 or 6 (!) of which had some numsimatic value (~$150-$200 as I recall).
Comments
.
Well, that was a bust. The seller lied and indicated that "Buyer asked to cancel" [the order]. I did not, of course. Now I have to wait a couple days for the refund to go back on the credit card.
Had the seller just been honest and stated that they don't want to sell it, I would understand. But lying about it earned a negative feedback.
.
Is it possible someone here tipped off the seller that he was selling it way too cheap?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
.
I suppose it is possible. Normally I wouldn't post an auction win until it is actually in my hands.
But the seller hadn't sold anything in over a year and the potential profit for me was only $180 or so.
So I wasn't too concerned about not getting the item.
.
So those $5 gold coins each had 1/4 ounce of gold.....which means with gold at about $1,700 during this time a $5 Half Eagle had about $425 in gold...so you paid about a 100% premium for the coins, right ?
Now....I take it the supply of $5 Half-Eagles has increased (i.e., Fairmont and other hoards) which helped the premium to dissipate ?
Disappearing premiums is going to be something we all have to take into account now for gold coins.
My fear is that we destroy lots of these less-desirable common coins...and in the future someone discovers the beauty of these coins and wants affordable investment-quality coins (not necessarily numsimatic higher-gradeds) and there isn't enough to satiate demand...and before you know it an MS-63 1924 Saint is selling for 25% above the price of gold and there are articles we're sharing asking "What Were We Thinking ?" when we melted down millions of pre-1933 gold coins for bullion ?
How would one know how many were ever melted?
I understand the hypothetical concerns, but the anxiety seems unfounded.
Bullion‘s best play is as just that.
When the stock market goes up gold will settle and/or fall
JMO
Mike
My Indians
Dansco Set
IIRC correctly, MS65 common dates were $2300-$2500 not that long ago and the coins have surged in price to around $3500 with the price of gold. The increase is purely because of the metal. Bullion prices are volatile. If the stock market stabilizes and the Fed can control inflation, gold prices will fall and may do so quickly leaving a large exposure to loss both in total value and percent. It is easier to convince someone building a set of silver eagles to swallow a couple of bucks.
Another way to look at this, there was enough numismatic demand to support $2300-$2500 gem Saint even if gold fell. There is essentially no numismatic demand to support prices above $3k if gold tanks.
Gold MAY fall if the stock market goes up again, but gold and stocks can move up together (for the most part they did from 2021 through 2024).
Gold supply/demand fundamentals are what is important, not necessarily the stock market or even inflation. Those take priority when gold's supply and demand are not in control.
You have major sources of demand -- CB's, Chinese insurance companies, SWFs, etc. -- all looking to add gold. Look at the corrections in gold the last year or two -- it is NOT letting you get back in if you missed the rise.
I said years ago we'd hit $3,000 by 2030 and $5,000 by 2035. Now I think we are more likely to hit $5,000 by 2030.
If gold dips or flatlines, use it to get in.
I never thought of that but we're within striking distance of talking about that. I bought a very nice 1923-D MS-66 for $3,500 at FUN 2020 when gold was about $1,650. I agree with your figure -- comparable coins for that year/mint or similar rarities are in the mid-$4,000 range.
Agreed....I think gold was just above/below $2,000 when you saw those MS-65 prices.
It's a new risk. We ever get gold bullion up to some of the levels predicted by these uber-bulls and we'll be wondering here if MCMVII High Reliefs can hold THEIR premiums !!
I wonder when MS64 and lower common date Saints will begin going to the smelter. It would be interesting to see if the supply could be reduced enough to keep prices higher long term numismatically. Maybe Legend and some of the CAC only dealers will begin the great dreck purge and only the stickered coins will be saved. Any non CAC MS64+ or lower coin gets melted. 🤣
If silver hadn't spiked up and then collapsed in the wake of the Hunt Brothers Fiasco in 1980....you may well have had tons of silver coins like MSDs get melted once silver crossed $40/ounce. But the violent collapse eliminated the incentive to do that and it probably saved lots of today's valuable numismatic coins.
There was a 1980 New York Times article to that effect.
In late 1979 and early 1980, people were lined up to sell silver coins to dealers, often at 15-20% back of melt. I was one of them. At the time I heard credible reports that bags of Morgan/Peace dollars, circulated and uncirculated, were heading to the smelters. I'm sure that lots of valuable numismatic cons actually were lost. Many more were probably destroyed in the two decades that followed, since 90% silver coins frequently traded below spot, making it profitable to melt them.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Silver went from like $18 to $45 in a matter of weeks. There was very little time to act. But more than gold, even folks who weren't into PMs knew about the spectacular rise in silver from earlier in the decade.
My father actually mused about what they could get for a sterling silver silverware set given to him and my mother on their Wedding Day....probably was a $1,000 gift from their parents and probably worth 10-20x that amount by 1979 or 1980....but no sale, my mother would have hit him over the head with the case if he tried to sell it.
Currently it’s at $3392. I would not be surprised to see it go higher.
Depends on investor pocket, outlook, and risk position.
I don’t see nice slabbed pieces going to the smelter. As a matter of fact many bumping up retail stock in this area. A friend bumping up prices from 95 pct CDN CPG to 97.5 pct of CDN CPG. Like it as an investment / inventory class but have other areas that bring better margins.
Hmmm...95% on common date 64 or lower is melt or even below..
I never saw that type of holder/label before.
What's the value today ? It's ~$800 in gold assuming no premium has materialized which would be counter to what we have seen.
If someone paid a premium years ago seeing how it has acted as gold moved 50-70% is the Big Question.
Not familiar with Half Eagles, these are Common or at least Non-Rare coins ?
Gold was about $1,150 - $1,350 for most of that time, so a 1/4 ounce coin had about $300 in gold, give-or-take. So you paid about 150-175% in premium so clearly there was some element of rarity or numismatic worth to the coins.
Clearly, gold having nearly tripled in price hurt the premium....did Fairmont or other hoards/finds impact these coins you think ?
They are not rare but they’re not nearly as common as the common date half eagles from the 20th century. IMHO an 1845 half eagle is much more numismatically interesting than a 1904 half eagle (300 vs 5000 survivors). Fairmont hasn’t helped and people also know they are more common than they were thought to be ten years ago. The rapid increase in the price of gold is of course the biggest factor. I think (maybe more hoping) when the price of gold stabilizes the premium will start to increase.
As the price goes too, high more and more coins become simply bullion valued. This happened in 1980 to silver coin. People were selling BU rolls of later date Mercury dimes and Walking liberty half dollars for silver bullion value. I was there --I seen it with my own eyes!
Just curious...any hoards found (other than Fairmont) or was it more of a drip-drip-drip from individiauls, coins from the attic, etc ?
Agree on both counts. I also think that today's Gen Z'ers, Millenials, and even younger Baby Boomers inheriting gold coins their parents or grandparents or great grandparents treasured -- but they don't -- are being handed down (or inherited) and then sold for a few quick buck$$$.
My cousin is an estate lawyer and he recently handled an estate with about $35,000 in silver coins from over the decades.....about 5,200 silver coins in total..... 5 or 6 (!) of which had some numsimatic value (~$150-$200 as I recall).