Poll: Which Approach Has Better Odds of Better Result? Regrade or Resubmit Raw?
ProofCollection
Posts: 6,655 ✭✭✭✭✭
I'm curious what the lore and belief is here for this scenario:
You have a 5-figure coin that PCGS graded 4 months ago so it would be submitted in the Walkthrough service tier. You believe it deserves a higher grade than it was given. You are not overly concerned about it coming back at a lower grade it but it is possible. Please disregard any difference in fees.
Crackout, Resubmit Raw:
a) You take the chance of cracking it out yourself vs PCGS
b) PCGS graders have no knowledge about the old grade
c) You have a small risk of it coming back at a lower gradeRegrade:
a) PCGS cracks it out, not you
b) No risk of downgrade
c) Will the prior grade influence the new grade?
Poll: Which Approach Has Better Odds of Better Result? Regrade or Resubmit Raw?
This is a public poll: others will see what you voted for.
0
Comments
Your chances of doing better in the holder are less than 5% in the old days. Now, who knows with images taken of every submission.
By cracking out you also take on the risk of it coming back a details grade this time, although I'm quite sure something lke that has never happened in the entire history of 3rd party grading, right?
Your hobby is supposed to be your therapy, not the reason you need it.
If it’s a rare coin I would wait longer than 4 months to submit and if it doesn’t have a sticker I would most likely crack it out.
The coin is what it is. If you believe it to be a higher grade and YOU KNOW HOW TO GRADE and HOW THE TPGS GRADES the risk of a downgrade or details grade is very small. If it is not a common coin or has some noticeable characteristic, there is a good chance that the graders will remember it and will not upgrade. Otherwise, crack it out and resubmit it in a large group of coins. If you don't crack it out, IMO, there is no point having it graded again. The TPGS will keep your money because it was graded by them once before.
Send it to the other top service. If it is a very nice coin, they should want it in their holder. Otherwise, they will return it and not cross it or upgrade it to make the other service look bad.
Bottom line, you might do better sending it CAC for a sticker and hope for the miracle of a gold sticker.
Reading between the lines of the OP and some replies, perhaps there’s a misunderstanding. With a Regrade, my understanding is that the graders will NOT see or know the original grade. Only after they finish the grading process does someone else see if the new grade is lower than the original grade (and if so, the new holder with a new cert number will then have a label at the old grade).
For those that commented about the grader remembering that coin AND the grade they gave it four months ago, yes, that is possible, and we periodically do hear about “old friends”. But with that said, I’ve sent back coins via Reconsideration that were recently graded, where the graders actually see in hand the current grade AND that it was recently graded, yet they gave these coins a plus added to the old whole grade! Why? In my opinion, when they grade a raw coin, subconsciously they’re focusing on a whole grade number in the seconds or one minute they have the coin before going on to the next coin. But when they have a coin in hand in the holder, they know that is sent in for Reconsideration. As such, they then FOCUS on the question, “Does this whole grade coin merit a plus, or not (or potentially the next higher whole grade)?” Getting the next higher whole grade is very rare (no pun intended).
I’m NOT recommending Reconsideration over Regrade, as I still believe Regrade has a better shot at success on an undergraded coin! I use Reconsideration solely to retain the same cert number to make it easier for CAC’d coins that get upgraded with a plus to get the sticker reapplied.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Depends on how confident you are that the coin won't downgrade. That would be a major motivating or demotivating factor for me.
How do you define “a small risk of it coming back at a lower grade”?
No matter how confident you are about your grading abilities or how sharp of a grader you actually are, you shouldn’t be shocked if you crack out a coin, submit it and it comes back at a lower (or details) grade. It happens to the best of graders.
The choice of crack out or regrade comes down to your tolerance for both financial risk and frustration.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
The OP stated "not overly concerned ..."
That would be the non-zero risk that always exists. As the OP says, "not overly concerned" but of course it is always a possibility.
Are stating that the odds are the same no matter which option is chosen? The original question is, which approach will yield the greatest chance of improvement.
Thank you Steve. As you did not answer the poll, do you believe the odds of improvement are the same with either approach? I'm not realizing I should have added this option. I will see if that's still possible although it taints the results to change it after the poll has started.
Yes, since the actual grader(s) will not know the grade of the coin whether it's a crackout or Regrade, I feel the odds are the same. As noted in my comment earlier, I agree that Regrade has better odds than Reconsideration.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
If the coin was conservatively graded, I think the odds of an upgrade are greater through a crack out submission. If it wasn’t, I think they’re the same as for a regrade. But either way, there’s also far more risk/downside with a crackout
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Mark - I don't necessarily disagree, but can you then clarify for me your understanding of the grading process (that is, what the grader(s) actually see) differently with a Regrade vs. a crackout?
Thanks for the education.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
I wouldn’t do either most likely. I like coins that look like they could get a higher grade than what the slab label says they are and don’t like taking steps to max the grade or value. But I’m just a collector and not a dealer, I don’t think this attitude would work well if I was a dealer.
Mr_Spud
Steve, while I appreciate it, I probably didn’t deserve your thanks for the education.😬
I don’t claim to know whether a regrade (for which the original grade can be accessed) might be negatively affected by that possibility. I only know that a cracked out submission doesn’t even allow for it.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
While that attitude of maximizing value doesn’t work for you and many other collectors, it absolutely works for me and many other collectors as well.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Mark, I’m confused, and maybe we’re thinking of different things. My interpretation of your above comment was that you felt if the coin was indeed undergraded, you felt a crackout would have a greater chance of success with an upgrade, compared to that coin submitted as a Regrade. I felt the odds of an upgrade would be the same with a crackout or Regrade, since the grader is not seeing the original grade in either case. Please clarify. I assumed (perhaps correctly) that you know something that I don’t know regarding the Regrade process, hence my use of the phrase “please educate me”.
Thanks.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
One thing I'm not sure many people consider is the impact on the value of the estate if something happens to you. Having all coins "maxed out" or at least graded correctly ensures that your heirs get as much for them as possible.
Sorry of the confusion, Steve.
I’ve been under the impression that in the case of a regrade, a record of the previous grade is available to the graders. And that therefore, at some point in the process, that could affect/put a cap on the grade of the regrade submission.
Just as a hypothetical example…if a coin was graded 65, later submitted as a regrade, grades 66+ or higher, the previous grade is accessed and found to have been 65, maybe, just maybe, the 66+ or higher grade is adjusted downward? If that can’t happen or has never occurred, I apologize to the grading companies.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Yes, I realize this. I have no children, my wife knows enough coin dealers to have them help her sell off the collection if she wants to. I just like my coins to look undergraded in their slabs whether they really are or not. Like some of my coins are actually undergraded, but others just look to be undergraded as a first impression but if you look closer you’ll see why they actually aren’t undergraded. It’s psychological, but I like this better than coins that look to be typical for the grade.
Mr_Spud
I agree with @Mr_Spud that I don't appreciate going through hassle of trying to upgrade my coins. First of all, I can't grade and I'd like to think my coins are correctly graded. However, as @winesteven has pointed out to me, it definitely is worthwhile if you are playing in the deep end of the pool. For example, a plus set of MS66 classic silver commemoratives is valued at $136,715 as opposed to a regular MS66 set valued at $81,225. On the other hand, a plus MS64 set is valued at $27,162 as opposed to a regular MS64 set valued at $23,975. Of course, there is nothing like the pride of ownership from owning a coin that one has upgraded..
I have some 3 figure coins I am going to crack out and send raw to NGC. When I get the results back, I might send some back to PCGS for cross-over. I have no idea if it will work on any of them and could just cost me a few hundred bucks.
How does your coin type grade at NGC or CACG ?
If you think you might try to cross them after NGC grades them, why not just try PCGS to start with?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Agreed. If I were to start a thread, which has better odds of a higher grade, crossing an NGC coin or submitting raw, I would say submitting raw for sure.
Not going to vote mainly because the issue of success should depend on the coin. The look of the coin should be constant whether cracked out or in a holder. A grade opinion of that coin is subject to change. I really don’t think the data behind what is gained through the polling establishes much of anything because the coin and the look of that coin is not part of the data.
Coins with the look will produce better results regardless of whether they are submitted raw or in a holder. And if the coin is resubmitted in the holder, doesn’t that sort of beg the question to the grader…”What did I/We miss the first time?
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
My question is can anyone confirm that the graders see the coin with a "reconsideration." Ideally, any coin sent for reconsideration should be sent to the grading room RAW! If it gets a lower grade the TPGS has a choice to make. If it gets the same grade the submitter is charged a reholder fee. If it goes up - no charge.
I should think the grading services have written procedures for each option.
The “reconsideration” service is set up so that the coin remains in its holder unless it upgrades. So the graders can’t see “reconsideration” submissions “raw”.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I'll bet the chances of a lower grade are nil because then the TPGS would need to compensate the submitter - right? If a coin is actually overgraded the TPGS can just say it's graded properly to our standard. Reminds me of trying to beat the "House"
Mark - I’m under the impression that your understanding is incorrect. My understanding is the grader not only doesn’t know the previous grade of the “raw” coin in his hand, but doesn’t get a second bite of the apple by seeing the original grade at the end! Regardless of who does see that original grade, that will only be used to not allow the new grade to be any lower than the original grade, and NOT to temper any new higher grade. Otherwise, that process is completely contradictory to that Regrade program!
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
I don’t have the guts to do it. And Some of my coins, I don’t want to lose the vintage holders or CAC stickers, either. I definitely have quite a few that could use and benefit from a second look and Second chance, though.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Steve, I’m truly glad to hear that. Thank you.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
So, which is it? Do the graders EVER know a previous grade? That would not be a fair review. If coins are left in their previous slab from the same service, they must know. Are the grades covered? We need a member with inside info to post (if they will not get into trouble) how it is ACTUALLY DONE not what is written about the way it is done. Although it may be out-of-date, any retired professional graders wish to tell how it was done during their tenure?
With Reconsideration the graders see the grade, which to me is perfectly fine! I want them to see the grade, which is a whole grade number. They then recognize, and focus on the question, “Does THIS coin merit a plus added on (or more), or not?”
I cannot say from first hand experience that with Regrade the grader does not have the ability to peek at what that current grade was on the holder that was just removed by PCGS. But if the grader does have the ability to peek, to temper what would have been an unbiased blind grade opinion, then that would be contradictory to the entire PCGS process of Regrade. That’s why I believe the latter does not happen!
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
I'm not sure you understand the different services.
A regrade is guaranteed not to downgrade.
A reconsideration is regraded in its original holder and only gets reholdered for an upgrade. I guess we assume the graders get to see the grade on the slab and that PCGS order processors do not cover it, but I have not seen any information other than speculation on this either way.
I'm sorry if the premise of the question wasn't clear. The original question is really to ascertain from the forum if there is any known or anecdotal evidence that the method of submission would influence the result for the same coin in either scenario. The "look of the coin" is irrelevant because the question posed herein is for the same coin submitted two different ways.
I appreciate this anecdote Steve. I have also wondered about the issuance of +s and it does seem to me that you might be onto something and that getting a + may require a resub.
@ProofCollection
The same coin fails to upgrade after multiple submissions… And as part of the multiple submission process, the coin is first submitted in the holder and fails to upgrade followed by a second submission whereby the same coin was cracked out and fails again to obtain the desired upgrade.
What does this tell you?
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I fail to see what that has to do with this thread's topic.
Kennedy half dollars are my main poison. I think I'm a pretty good grader and have put my grading skills to the test a couple of times in different ways. My first attempt was with a 1976-P Kennedy in MS 66. I submitted it in the raw and it came back as an MS 66, I thought it was better. PCGS came out with the PLUS system and I submitted it again. It came back in an MS 67+ holder! Great news and it was FREE! Later I resubmitted my 1964-D in MS 67 and it came back in an MS 67+ holder. I've had problems in the past1
Of course these were resubmitted requesting regrades while taking out the coins from the holders first. Plus I'm going to post about my latest submission shortly. When in doubt: Submit for a regrade. Let them crack it out! Otherwise you gambling on your old beat up holder's appearance to grade your coin!
Unless a coin is so scarce that it is well known in numismatic circles, a grader wouldn't recognize it if submitted raw.
They have a few seconds to look at the coin and make a decision. I would never crack out a coin. Too many horror stories of it downgrading, having to submit it three times to get it back to the grade in the original holder, etc. No thank you. If you have a coin in a 65 holder and there's a big gap between 66 and 64, you're walking a high wire without a safety net.
That said, when submitting coins in holder for either reconsideration or upgrade, more often than not, it has been a frustrating experience. I have eight or ten plus coins for my trouble, plus a huge one full grade upgrade on a coin that I don't think deserved it (I think it deserved a plus). But, there have been far more coins that I (and some people who know far more than I do) thought should get a one point upgrade, and didn't get anything.
Someone commented about trying to cross an NGC coin. From my experiences, I won't try that again.
Buy the coin you like in what you think is the right holder, and if it has been five or ten years, then try to upgrade before you sell. If you aren't selling, leave it be.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I've had "decent" success (which I will not publicly define) with Reconsideration. However, every coin was in a whole grade, with a CAC sticker, and virtually every upgrade was to a plus. While the large majority were not upgraded, those that were made this "game" worthwhile.
Regarding crossing, I just submitted about two months or so ago my very first crossover. It was an NGC AU58 w/CAC sticker, that crossed to the same grade at PCGS, and CAC stickered that new holder.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
.
Coin Photographer.
Welcome to the Secret Society, Steve.
Thanks, Steve. The only NGC - PCGS same grade cross I received was over 25 years ago. It was a Classic Head Large Cent in MS 64 BN. I did it because I had a free PCGS grading sticker to use and I walked it into a Long Beach show.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I don't know enough to vote, but will be watching the results, as I have the same question with one of my coins. It is graded VF Details for 'repaired', but I look and look, by eye and under a microscope, and cannot find the damage. Should i send back, and if so raw or in the slab? Will be watching!
I don't have nearly the expertise of many on this forum, but if the TPG detailed it for repair, those knowledgeable people saw something of concern. if it were me, I would not pay good money after bad on having THAT coin graded again!
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
There's no results to watch for. I was just trying to get a feel for the current perceptions regarding the processes for each option. My conclusion based on the feedback here is that people in this forum feel a coin will get the same result with either method and that the regrade does not seem to introduce any bias.
Agreed, though I would try to show the coin to one or two knowledgeable collectors and/or dealers.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Buddy of mine told me he showed pcgs rep his under graded goodie in a pcgs slab. Rep agreed to higher grade and fee was based on increase in coin's value. Cost him a few hundred dollars for the higher graded slab submitted at the show. I found this very interesting and I share it as maybe its worth leaving your coin in pcgs slab and chat with rep at a future show.
That doesn’t sound like a proper, anonymous regrade and I’m guessing that important details are missing and/or have been mischaracterized.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
This approach is not viable for most of us, myself included.
I'll look into it.
I was surprised when told the firsthand story last year but then, if true, it made sense if the agreed upon higher grade adds value due to achieving higher grade desired. I'll find out if I recall this event correctly. My buddy has been super busy lately, so it'll be a couple weeks or next month.
I stopped wasting my time and money on reconsideration. These days, it’s either regrade or crack out.
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