Home U.S. Coin Forum

Classic Commemoratives on the rise?

yspsalesyspsales Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited December 27, 2024 6:34AM in U.S. Coin Forum

Don't look now.

On the rise.

Hope our host doesn't mind my use of their chart

BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out

Comments

  • johnny9434johnny9434 Posts: 28,480 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Got an updated page? 🙂

  • csanotescsanotes Posts: 469 ✭✭✭✭

    I am really glad that I have never been sucked into the vacuum that is full of the highs and lows of the commemorative market. I am sure in either an article or a book that Anthony Swiatek has mentioned how or why they are so susceptible to huge market changes.

    Chance favors the prepared mind.

  • raysrays Posts: 2,386 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Classic commemoratives will be “on the rise” only when more people want them. I don’t see that happening now, if ever.

  • CommemDudeCommemDude Posts: 2,271 ✭✭✭✭✭

    From your table, it looks like we'll be back to 1989 as soon as commem prices rise 6x from here. White coins are so plentiful and inexpensive that I don't see how we ever get back to the solid prices of the late 1990s.

    There is definitely a stronger and disparate market for pretty coins vs the vast majority of white or unremarkable coins which still look dirt cheap

    Dr Mikey
    Commems and Early Type
  • dhikewhitneydhikewhitney Posts: 471 ✭✭✭✭

    @rays said:
    Classic commemoratives will be “on the rise” only when more people want them. I don’t see that happening now, if ever.

    Classic gold will track with other pre-1933 gold.
    Silver commemoratives will languish.

  • OrlenaOrlena Posts: 319 ✭✭✭

    I started collecting them about 5 years ago simply because I liked the “Americana” aspect of the series. Not much has changed and I still grab one or two at every show. During Covid I jumped onto the smaller gold ($1, $2.50) issues and just about completed the set. I have seen the gold jump a bit, but again it’s just a hobby, not an investment vehicle.

  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 13,670 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dhikewhitney said:

    @rays said:
    Classic commemoratives will be “on the rise” only when more people want them. I don’t see that happening now, if ever.

    Classic gold will track with other pre-1933 gold.
    Silver commemoratives will languish.

    I haven’t observed a correlation in price movement between classic gold commemoratives and other pre-1933 gold coins. They appear to be two entirely different markets.

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • PeakRaritiesPeakRarities Posts: 3,900 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I wish they wouldn't even show those indexes, imo it does the coin market a disservice more than anything. Who knows how many or what type data points are used, or what parameters or supervision are in place to maintain accuracy. If it's only supposed to be a novelty, at least make it a little more appealing, or make the starting point after 1989. Maybe the turn of the century when collectors started gaining access to vital information, and the best data was no longer proprietary.

    Founder- Peak Rarities
    Website
    Instagram
    Facebook

  • dhikewhitneydhikewhitney Posts: 471 ✭✭✭✭

    @MFeld said:

    @dhikewhitney said:

    @rays said:
    Classic commemoratives will be “on the rise” only when more people want them. I don’t see that happening now, if ever.

    Classic gold will track with other pre-1933 gold.
    Silver commemoratives will languish.

    I haven’t observed a correlation in price movement between classic gold commemoratives and other pre-1933 gold coins. They appear to be two entirely different markets.

    I defer to your expertise. Why does the price of a low uncirculated Type 1 Gold Dollar seem to be the same as that of a 1903 Gold Commemorative Dollar ?
    I wonder what common Silver Commemorative Halves might seem to track.
    I might have been more accurate to write both types of commemorative track the value of their base metal.

  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 13,670 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dhikewhitney said:

    @MFeld said:

    @dhikewhitney said:

    @rays said:
    Classic commemoratives will be “on the rise” only when more people want them. I don’t see that happening now, if ever.

    Classic gold will track with other pre-1933 gold.
    Silver commemoratives will languish.

    I haven’t observed a correlation in price movement between classic gold commemoratives and other pre-1933 gold coins. They appear to be two entirely different markets.

    I defer to your expertise. Why does the price of a low uncirculated Type 1 Gold Dollar seem to be the same as that of a 1903 Gold Commemorative Dollar ?
    I wonder what common Silver Commemorative Halves might seem to track.
    I might have been more accurate to write both types of commemorative track the value of their base metal.

    If low grade unc. Type 1 Gold Dollars sell for similar prices to 1903 Commemorative Gold dollars, it’s coincidental. And I doubt that Silver Commemorative Half Dollars track anything in particular, other than others in the series, as in general, they seem to move together.

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,755 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @DisneyFan said:

    Auction results always make me wonder. Last Sunday, Dec 22, this MS66 CAC Lexington had a final bid of $800 ($900 net) with a PCGS price guide of $575 and a CAC price guide of $500. I regularly see other examples.

    Big price jump in 67

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,755 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MFeld said:

    @dhikewhitney said:

    @MFeld said:

    @dhikewhitney said:

    @rays said:
    Classic commemoratives will be “on the rise” only when more people want them. I don’t see that happening now, if ever.

    Classic gold will track with other pre-1933 gold.
    Silver commemoratives will languish.

    I haven’t observed a correlation in price movement between classic gold commemoratives and other pre-1933 gold coins. They appear to be two entirely different markets.

    I defer to your expertise. Why does the price of a low uncirculated Type 1 Gold Dollar seem to be the same as that of a 1903 Gold Commemorative Dollar ?
    I wonder what common Silver Commemorative Halves might seem to track.
    I might have been more accurate to write both types of commemorative track the value of their base metal.

    If low grade unc. Type 1 Gold Dollars sell for similar prices to 1903 Commemorative Gold dollars, it’s coincidental. And I doubt that Silver Commemorative Half Dollars track anything in particular, other than others in the series, as in general, they seem to move together.

    The really common grade Wash-Carver, BTW and Columbian more or less track silver prices as they barely sell above melt. Other than that, the others don't track much of anything (other than each other) because their prices barely move at all.

    I really think the series suffers from the date/mm compulsion. It's a large series and repetitive if you date/mm collect so I think most people don't. But there really are some wonderful designs in the series that are underappreciated as a result - in my opinion.

    Maybe Lexington-Concord and the Sesquicentennial will get some play from the 250th.

  • DisneyFanDisneyFan Posts: 2,106 ✭✭✭✭✭

    While it was a OGH and there is a big price jump to MS67, the Lexington already has a green CAC. Most likely it was simply a bidder war with bidder 6 battling bidder 5 all the way up to $800 from $425.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,755 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 28, 2024 5:36AM

    @DisneyFan said:
    While it was a OGH and there is a big price jump to MS67, the Lexington already has a green CAC. Most likely it was simply a bidder war with bidder 6 battling bidder 5 all the way up to

    It's not an easy coin to find in that grade with CAC

  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 8,313 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Classic Commems showing high demand for me. PQ pieces with super luster very much in demand.

    Coins & Currency
  • DCWDCW Posts: 7,408 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BillJones said:

    The days of using these pieces has “investment vehicles” are over.

    Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
    "Coin collecting for outcasts..."

  • DisneyFanDisneyFan Posts: 2,106 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BillJones said:

    Old Green Label holder + blazing luster from the photo + CAC sticker + super smooth, mark free surfaces from the photo = a premium price. This was not a run of the mill MS-66. It is an MS-66, 67 hybrid.

    Guess I have good taste : )

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,942 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @CommemDude said:
    From your table, it looks like we'll be back to 1989 as soon as commem prices rise 6x from here. White coins are >so plentiful and inexpensive that I don't see how we ever get back to the solid prices of the late 1990s.

    I wasn't around for that bubble.....while gold/silver/numismatics declined in the 1980's for the most part....somehow....the commemorative market not only resisted that decline it soared.

    Was there any reason why ? Many of the commemoratives were made of gold or silver, not sure with both metals doing nothing for a decade that they'd move up.

  • BarberianBarberian Posts: 3,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @CommemDude said:
    From your table, it looks like we'll be back to 1989 as soon as commem prices rise 6x from here. White coins are >so plentiful and inexpensive that I don't see how we ever get back to the solid prices of the late 1990s.

    I wasn't around for that bubble.....while gold/silver/numismatics declined in the 1980's for the most part....somehow....the commemorative market not only resisted that decline it soared.

    Was there any reason why ? Many of the commemoratives were made of gold or silver, not sure with both metals doing nothing for a decade that they'd move up.

    Investor speculation for high grade TPG examples went through the roof.

    3 rim nicks away from Good
  • dhikewhitneydhikewhitney Posts: 471 ✭✭✭✭

    I thought that commemorative coins have been held back by the decline and oversupply of state quarters and modern commemorative coins.

  • WiscKauWiscKau Posts: 175 ✭✭✭✭

    There is no other series of coins to collect than this. Each one it's own history, good or bad.

    I collect them for fun not as an investment.

  • BillJonesBillJones Posts: 34,117 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 29, 2024 4:59AM

    @Barberian said:

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @CommemDude said:
    From your table, it looks like we'll be back to 1989 as soon as commem prices rise 6x from here. White coins are >so plentiful and inexpensive that I don't see how we ever get back to the solid prices of the late 1990s.

    I wasn't around for that bubble.....while gold/silver/numismatics declined in the 1980's for the most part....somehow....the commemorative market not only resisted that decline it soared.

    Was there any reason why ? Many of the commemoratives were made of gold or silver, not sure with both metals doing nothing for a decade that they'd move up.

    Investor speculation for high grade TPG examples went through the roof.

    Yes, Walter Breen and Anthony Switeck wrote a book, which was published by First Coin Investors. It was a decent effort, except for the pricing projection appendix, which was stand-up comedy for any coin collector with a minimal amount of intelligence. There were “investment grade issues” of commemorative half dollars, which were “highly recommended,” but the projected price increases for EVERY COMMEMORATIVE COIN were so high that the market for these coins would have beaten every investment vehicle if they had been true. It was a total joke, but I guess some coin collecting rookies and speculators believed it. Those who did lost their shirts and their underwear if they “invested” whole hog.

    Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
  • PeakRaritiesPeakRarities Posts: 3,900 ✭✭✭✭✭

    CSS> @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @CommemDude said:
    From your table, it looks like we'll be back to 1989 as soon as commem prices rise 6x from here. White coins are >so plentiful and inexpensive that I don't see how we ever get back to the solid prices of the late 1990s.

    I wasn't around for that bubble.....while gold/silver/numismatics declined in the 1980's for the most part....somehow....the commemorative market not only resisted that decline it soared.

    Was there any reason why ? Many of the commemoratives were made of gold or silver, not sure with both metals doing nothing for a decade that they'd move up.

    Didn't the decline start in '89, and continue downwards until there mid 90's ? I know of a series that was generally unscathed by the '89 crisis, and pretty much every crisis thereafter? The most fun to play with are the esoteric and iconic. Oregon, Baldwin, Mormon, and I think Clark is great because of the extensive circulation and widespread adoption.

    I cant find a good index with the data compiled, like they have for commems, I might have to make one. Though I never had used this section of PCGS "Price Changes" page. I know Im always beating this drum, but you really cant help but marvel at the performance of any of the private coiners, especially when you start comparing. With CG, they were having a tough time finding the "losers". You would think the "rarities" index would account for more issues similar to this. Unlike Commems, I dont think that there was even a fraction of the type of promotion for Pioneer.

    Pioneer Price change over the last decade-
    https://www.pcgs.com/prices/pricechanges/colorado-gold/1612/ms

    Gold Commems-
    https://www.pcgs.com/prices/pricechanges/gold-commemorative/791/ms

    Historical trends for mormon 5 -
    https://www.pcgs.com/prices/pricechanges/colorado-gold/1612/ms

    Founder- Peak Rarities
    Website
    Instagram
    Facebook

  • lermishlermish Posts: 3,083 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BillJones said:

    @Barberian said:

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @CommemDude said:
    From your table, it looks like we'll be back to 1989 as soon as commem prices rise 6x from here. White coins are >so plentiful and inexpensive that I don't see how we ever get back to the solid prices of the late 1990s.

    I wasn't around for that bubble.....while gold/silver/numismatics declined in the 1980's for the most part....somehow....the commemorative market not only resisted that decline it soared.

    Was there any reason why ? Many of the commemoratives were made of gold or silver, not sure with both metals doing nothing for a decade that they'd move up.

    Investor speculation for high grade TPG examples went through the roof.

    Yes, Walter Breen and Anthony Switeck wrote a book, which was published by First Coin Investors. It was a decent effort, except for the pricing projection appendix, which was stand-up comedy for any coin collector with a minimal amount of intelligence. There were “investment grade issues” of commemorative half dollars, which were “highly recommended,” but the projected price increases for EVERY COMMEMORATIVE COIN were so high that the market for these coins would have beaten every investment vehicle if they had been true. It was a total joke, but I guess some coin collecting rookies and speculators believed it. Those who did lost their shirts and their underwear if they “invested” whole hog.

    I wonder if all of the readers of that book reached a new pinnacle of enjoyment of the coin collecting hobby as they got absolutely crushed in the classic commem market?

  • LazybonesLazybones Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Doesn't this belong in the "HUMOR" thread?

    USAF (Ret) 1974 - 1994 - The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries. Remembering RickO, a brother in arms.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,635 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I don't believe this "series" is going anywhere financially, in the aggregate. I don't even consider it an actual series, just a random assortment of coins with the same denomination except for the one quarter and dollar.

    Financially, the biggest difference I see are the new alternatives which now compete with it which didn't previously. Primarily world NCLT, ASE, and modern US commemoratives which were just starting in 1989. Maybe somewhat now with world coinage too due to the internet.

    The series has languished and is a lot cheaper than previously. Concurrently, there are still many at least as "interesting" coins in a similar price range (or much cheaper) where I don't think it would be competitive at noticeably higher prices.

  • DisneyFanDisneyFan Posts: 2,106 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Tell me again that Classic Commemoratives are out of favor.

    On Sunday, Dec 29, this MS66+ CAC Rhode Island had a final bid of $387.99 ($436.49 net) with a PCGS price guide of $260/$425 for "+" and a CAC price guide of $280.

  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 13,670 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @DisneyFan said:
    Tell me again that Classic Commemoratives are out of favor.

    On Sunday, Dec 29, this MS66+ CAC Rhode Island had a final bid of $387.99 ($436.49 net) with a PCGS price guide of $260/$425 for "+" and a CAC price guide of $280.

    Since you requested it, they’re out of favor (and have been for a very long time). The sale you reported doesn’t amount to evidence to the contrary.

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,755 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MFeld said:

    @DisneyFan said:
    Tell me again that Classic Commemoratives are out of favor.

    On Sunday, Dec 29, this MS66+ CAC Rhode Island had a final bid of $387.99 ($436.49 net) with a PCGS price guide of $260/$425 for "+" and a CAC price guide of $280.

    Since you requested it, they’re out of favor (and have been for a very long time). The sale you reported doesn’t amount to evidence to the contrary.

    You could argue that the sale proves just how out of favor they are. A US coin with a total PDS mintage of 50,000 coins and a PCGS 66+ or better population of 150 coins sold for $436 in 66+. If it were a Jefferson nickel, it would have sold for more than that.

  • DisneyFanDisneyFan Posts: 2,106 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MFeld said:

    Since you requested it, they’re out of favor (and have been for a very long time). The sale you reported doesn’t amount to evidence to the contrary.

    @jmlanzaf said:
    You could argue that the sale proves just how out of favor they are. A US coin with a total PDS mintage of 50,000 coins and a PCGS 66+ or better population of 150 coins sold for $436 in 66+. If it were a Jefferson nickel, it would have sold for more than that.

    Both comments are noteworthy. Currently nice commemoratives with CACs appear to be getting strong bids and not heavily discounted from price guides.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file