Classic Commemoratives on the rise?
yspsales
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Don't look now.
On the rise.
Hope our host doesn't mind my use of their chart
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I am really glad that I have never been sucked into the vacuum that is full of the highs and lows of the commemorative market. I am sure in either an article or a book that Anthony Swiatek has mentioned how or why they are so susceptible to huge market changes.
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The chart you included goes from 2019-2022, a period in which the overall market increased. And while commemoratives participated, their price increase was considerably less than that shown in the PCGS3000® Index.
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/pcgs3000
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Classic commemoratives will be “on the rise” only when more people want them. I don’t see that happening now, if ever.
From your table, it looks like we'll be back to 1989 as soon as commem prices rise 6x from here. White coins are so plentiful and inexpensive that I don't see how we ever get back to the solid prices of the late 1990s.
There is definitely a stronger and disparate market for pretty coins vs the vast majority of white or unremarkable coins which still look dirt cheap
Commems and Early Type
From what I have observed, most of the action is with the "trophy coins" starting with the two Pan-Pac $50 gold pieces and then key, “rare issues,” like the Hawaiian half dollar. The rest of the series, especially the common issues are fairly flat.
In a way this is an opportunity for pure collectors. There are some great books on the “old commemoratives” and the level of enjoyment is quite high. At the same time, you won’t have investors driving up the prices artificially for “a score.” The days of using these pieces has “investment vehicles” are over.
Classic gold will track with other pre-1933 gold.
Silver commemoratives will languish.
I started collecting them about 5 years ago simply because I liked the “Americana” aspect of the series. Not much has changed and I still grab one or two at every show. During Covid I jumped onto the smaller gold ($1, $2.50) issues and just about completed the set. I have seen the gold jump a bit, but again it’s just a hobby, not an investment vehicle.
I haven’t observed a correlation in price movement between classic gold commemoratives and other pre-1933 gold coins. They appear to be two entirely different markets.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Auction results always make me wonder. Last Sunday, Dec 22, this MS66 CAC Lexington had a final bid of $800 ($900 net) with a PCGS price guide of $575 and a CAC price guide of $500. I regularly see other examples.
I wish they wouldn't even show those indexes, imo it does the coin market a disservice more than anything. Who knows how many or what type data points are used, or what parameters or supervision are in place to maintain accuracy. If it's only supposed to be a novelty, at least make it a little more appealing, or make the starting point after 1989. Maybe the turn of the century when collectors started gaining access to vital information, and the best data was no longer proprietary.
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Nice sale. It's in an OGH holder too:
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1720942/1925-Lexington-Concord-Sesquicentennial-Half-Dollar-PCGS-MS-66-CAC-Green-OGH
I defer to your expertise. Why does the price of a low uncirculated Type 1 Gold Dollar seem to be the same as that of a 1903 Gold Commemorative Dollar ?
I wonder what common Silver Commemorative Halves might seem to track.
I might have been more accurate to write both types of commemorative track the value of their base metal.
If low grade unc. Type 1 Gold Dollars sell for similar prices to 1903 Commemorative Gold dollars, it’s coincidental. And I doubt that Silver Commemorative Half Dollars track anything in particular, other than others in the series, as in general, they seem to move together.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Big price jump in 67
The really common grade Wash-Carver, BTW and Columbian more or less track silver prices as they barely sell above melt. Other than that, the others don't track much of anything (other than each other) because their prices barely move at all.
I really think the series suffers from the date/mm compulsion. It's a large series and repetitive if you date/mm collect so I think most people don't. But there really are some wonderful designs in the series that are underappreciated as a result - in my opinion.
Maybe Lexington-Concord and the Sesquicentennial will get some play from the 250th.
While it was a OGH and there is a big price jump to MS67, the Lexington already has a green CAC. Most likely it was simply a bidder war with bidder 6 battling bidder 5 all the way up to $800 from $425.
It's not an easy coin to find in that grade with CAC
Old Green Label holder + blazing luster from the photo + CAC sticker + super smooth, mark free surfaces from the photo = a premium price. This was not a run of the mill MS-66. It is an MS-66, 67 hybrid.
Classic Commems showing high demand for me. PQ pieces with super luster very much in demand.
The days of using these pieces has “investment vehicles” are over.
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Guess I have good taste : )
I wasn't around for that bubble.....while gold/silver/numismatics declined in the 1980's for the most part....somehow....the commemorative market not only resisted that decline it soared.
Was there any reason why ? Many of the commemoratives were made of gold or silver, not sure with both metals doing nothing for a decade that they'd move up.
Investor speculation for high grade TPG examples went through the roof.
I thought that commemorative coins have been held back by the decline and oversupply of state quarters and modern commemorative coins.
There is no other series of coins to collect than this. Each one it's own history, good or bad.
I collect them for fun not as an investment.
Yes, Walter Breen and Anthony Switeck wrote a book, which was published by First Coin Investors. It was a decent effort, except for the pricing projection appendix, which was stand-up comedy for any coin collector with a minimal amount of intelligence. There were “investment grade issues” of commemorative half dollars, which were “highly recommended,” but the projected price increases for EVERY COMMEMORATIVE COIN were so high that the market for these coins would have beaten every investment vehicle if they had been true. It was a total joke, but I guess some coin collecting rookies and speculators believed it. Those who did lost their shirts and their underwear if they “invested” whole hog.
CSS> @GoldFinger1969 said:
Didn't the decline start in '89, and continue downwards until there mid 90's ? I know of a series that was generally unscathed by the '89 crisis, and pretty much every crisis thereafter? The most fun to play with are the esoteric and iconic. Oregon, Baldwin, Mormon, and I think Clark is great because of the extensive circulation and widespread adoption.
I cant find a good index with the data compiled, like they have for commems, I might have to make one. Though I never had used this section of PCGS "Price Changes" page. I know Im always beating this drum, but you really cant help but marvel at the performance of any of the private coiners, especially when you start comparing. With CG, they were having a tough time finding the "losers". You would think the "rarities" index would account for more issues similar to this. Unlike Commems, I dont think that there was even a fraction of the type of promotion for Pioneer.
Pioneer Price change over the last decade-
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/pricechanges/colorado-gold/1612/ms
Gold Commems-
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/pricechanges/gold-commemorative/791/ms
Historical trends for mormon 5 -
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/pricechanges/colorado-gold/1612/ms
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I wonder if all of the readers of that book reached a new pinnacle of enjoyment of the coin collecting hobby as they got absolutely crushed in the classic commem market?
Doesn't this belong in the "HUMOR" thread?
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I don't believe this "series" is going anywhere financially, in the aggregate. I don't even consider it an actual series, just a random assortment of coins with the same denomination except for the one quarter and dollar.
Financially, the biggest difference I see are the new alternatives which now compete with it which didn't previously. Primarily world NCLT, ASE, and modern US commemoratives which were just starting in 1989. Maybe somewhat now with world coinage too due to the internet.
The series has languished and is a lot cheaper than previously. Concurrently, there are still many at least as "interesting" coins in a similar price range (or much cheaper) where I don't think it would be competitive at noticeably higher prices.
Tell me again that Classic Commemoratives are out of favor.
On Sunday, Dec 29, this MS66+ CAC Rhode Island had a final bid of $387.99 ($436.49 net) with a PCGS price guide of $260/$425 for "+" and a CAC price guide of $280.
Since you requested it, they’re out of favor (and have been for a very long time). The sale you reported doesn’t amount to evidence to the contrary.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
You could argue that the sale proves just how out of favor they are. A US coin with a total PDS mintage of 50,000 coins and a PCGS 66+ or better population of 150 coins sold for $436 in 66+. If it were a Jefferson nickel, it would have sold for more than that.
Both comments are noteworthy. Currently nice commemoratives with CACs appear to be getting strong bids and not heavily discounted from price guides.