Is platinum now a better buy than gold?
tincup
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Since it appears that internal combustion engine vehicles may now likely continue to be produced, and perhaps in increasing numbers, given the direction the country may be heading....
Demand cound increase for the platinum metals again. Gold is likely to remain on an increasing trend for a while yet... but perhaps platinum may see some good increases if industrial demand picks back up?
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I like platinum.
I wouldn't expect any big increase in demand. Combustion engines will continue to go the way of the dinosaurs.
That said current demand for the Pt outstrips supply and when compared to the gutter metal the ratio suggests it's a screaming buy. It is not a premium friendly metal so if investing, one is best to stick with the paper version. I must confess I failed to follow my own advice and have recently added a few physical ozT in addition to the paper version. RGDS!
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I have to admit that premium that seems to go with platinum gives one pause. Probably would take a rather large increase in the price before one could recoup that amount with any sellback. Much as I prefer 'physical' rather than 'paper', platinum may be the exception.
Platinum has been lackluster for some time now, but it's also undervalued. For investment purposes, it must overcome a larger spread just to break even, but it's 10X scarcer than gold and it has industrial uses that make it attractive.
Taking those factors into consideration, I would expect gold to have a more certain positive near term outlook based on gold's fundamentals including central bank buying, interest in backing a BRICS trade unit and gold's current upward momentum having recently bounced off of its 100 day moving average. Several big banks have forecast higher gold prices as well.
I like platinum and it will have its day, but right now it's about gold and soon, silver.
I knew it would happen.
To piggy back on this, I think a lot of platinum's higher prices back in the day were due to its popularity in culture.
When we saw $2250/oz, life was all about huge platinum chains and dental implants which caused a massive spike in demand. People rapped about platinum, people coated their gold in platinum, bought platinum wedding rings and wanted platinum teeth.
That being said, I don't think we will see anything like those glory days any time soon. However, I believe it is a very volatile metal.
To me, its attractiveness is that - when it explodes (not if) - it is going to be a doozy of a day. So I guess it boils down to the question: are you patient enough?
I'm very long on platinum and buy deals when I see it because I think it is undervalued. I'm 40 and believe I'll see a nice payday in my lifetime.
I'm not interested in platinum or palladium now.
But palladium spot was about $140 (2005 to my recollection but maybe not), I declined to buy it because the premium on 1oz bars (no coins then that I know) was $30 or 20%+.
I should have bought it anyway.
I like Platinum and have made a purchase or two recently.
Big historical discount when compared to gold, but will it climb to its former PM heights?
I think so, but who knows when.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
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catalytic converter prices are trash. platinum will under perform unless some new tech suddenly depends on it
as far as the coins go besides the US mint did anyone ever make money?
I've owned a few and found the hard to buy because of premiums and very hard to sell for the same reason.
Paying +20% each way is suicide
I don't believe there is much of a hobbyist collector base for it. More for the fractionals because it's more affordable, but there is always demand for a low mintage but not actually scarce US NCLT. It's my inference there are more buyers due to the mintage for speculation than buying it because it's wanted as a collectible.
Above is from reading the two books written by the author of that mega thread.
Platinum could see a boost in demand if internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles continue to be produced in higher numbers, as platinum is a key component in catalytic converters. If industrial demand picks up, especially in automotive and other sectors, platinum may experience growth. While gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven and likely to maintain its upward trend, platinum's industrial uses give it potential for significant price increases if the market strengthens. It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on both metals, as they could perform differently depending on market shifts.
I think that while ICE is going to be here higher and longer...it's STILL a slow decline....look at China, impacting oil demand as 50% of their new vehicle sales are EVs (in the U.S. I think it is 4%).
I wouldn't want to be long the WMGs especially if Russia opens the floodgates to stockpiles. The production of these white metals is so concentrated on non-transparent suppliers it's all one big guessing game.
Platinum is really good at resisting electrical erosion and as a catalyst, it is preferred (along with palladium) in quite a few chemical processes.
As far as automotive, it's going to be awhile before the EV pipedream can economically compete especially considering that the expensive infrastructure that EVs require is nowhere it needs to be to support general use. Not to mention that the environmental impact of EVs isn't what it's been hyped up to be when it's all said and done.
One of the reasons that platinum is expensive is that there aren't many substitutes for it and it's expensive to dig out of the ground at the depths where it is found.
I understand that Asians like platinum jewelry, so that market might also be a growing influence.
In terms of potential, I think silver has a better shot at making a good run than platinum - and I like platinum alot.
I knew it would happen.
Because it is a good alternative to more expensive PMs - a poor man's gold.
Repetition of ignorance is ignorance raised to the power two.
Absolutely! It is a way for many more individuals to at least make a start in holding some metal, however small the investment.
Jmski, don't you think that the traditional platinum/palladium sources of demand are in SECULAR decline such that nominal boosts from jewelry or other items will NOT be able to offset it ?
The bubble in the WMG from 1990-2015 far exceeded gold or silver.
don't you think that the traditional platinum/palladium sources of demand are in SECULAR decline
Not until we run out of fossil fuels and it's a dubious proposition anyhow that EVs are ever going to become transportation for the masses. The masses won't be able to afford it.
I knew it would happen.
The Greens and eco-nuts projections were certainly off, but there's no doubt that with 50% of new vehicles in China (world's #1 car market) being EVs that they are grabbing global market share. Look at the distress in the German auto market.
ICE will certainly have longer and higher staying power....but I'm not sure that's enough to help the prices for the WMGs.
I'm not sure that's enough to help the prices for the WMGs.
Considering the specific uses for WMGs, in most cases there are no substitutes and it's not likely that new mining sources will be found any time soon.
I knew it would happen.
As for platinum... remains interesting to me. Especially when one looks at where the supply comes from. South Africa and Russia are by far the main producers, so any disruption from those countries certainly would affect the price. And coupled with potential increasing industrial demand.... rather bullish.
The down sides? Those premiums on the platinum coins.... and perhaps the ability to easily liquidate or cash in without a discount from melt.
And... I am not quite of the opinion that it is a matter of time... before EV's replace the internal combustion engine. Perhaps feasible for those who live in metro areas... but there is a lot of wide open areas that EV's just don't cut it. There is also the ignored issue of the electrical supply system being able to recharge the whole nation... where is that coming from.
Or... EV's may be somewhat practical in areas with moderate climate such as the west coast. But not here in the frigid midwest! When temp gets cold enough... large electric bill just to keep the batteries warm... not good to let them freeze.
I suspect the reason that the EU and China have so many EV's.... and traditional auto makers are in trouble.... may just be partly due to 'mandates' and EV's being 'forced' on the population? Just sayin'...
Platinum and palladium are still both stuck in the $1,000 range, despite their scarcity. Hard to think of a catalyst that will get them to breakout, like gold and silver have done.
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I don't think so, they are industrial metals and are a different play.
Platinum, palladium and rare earths; spend 50 hours for and against, Kitco commentaries etc. and then maybe buy.
Absolutely, you're dead-on. But the issues aren't the ones you mention about EVs and mandates and how stupid it is (i.e., Europe going Green and getting speared by Putin)....it's about whether the white metals can get back to anything like 10-15 years ago. The market is clearly saying they can't and even a bull market in gold and silver isn't letting them piggyback.
Imagine if gold were still at $2,000 where platinum and palladium would be !!
Platinum could see a boost in demand if internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles continue to be produced in higher numbers, as platinum is a key component in catalytic converters. If industrial demand picks up, especially in automotive and other sectors, platinum may experience growth. While gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven and likely to maintain its upward trend, platinum's industrial uses give it potential for significant price increases if the market strengthens. It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on both metals, as they could perform differently depending on market shifts.> @tincup said:
Platinum used to trade higher than gold because of its rarity and industrial demand, especially for catalytic converters. But lately, gold has been the stronger performer, making platinum look pretty cheap in comparison.
If gas-powered vehicles keep getting made—like it’s starting to look—platinum demand could pick up again. Plus, there’s growing interest in hydrogen fuel cells, which also use platinum, so that could be another boost down the line.
Gold, though, is still the safer play. It’s been holding strong with all the economic uncertainty, and it’ll likely stay on an upward trend. Platinum might have more room to run if demand really picks up, but it’s got more risk too.
The precious metal is forecast to be in a market deficit of 848,000 ounces in 2025–from prior expectations of 539,000 ounces–on persistently low recycling rates and constrained mining supply, according to a new report from the World Platinum Investment Council.
Mine supply is expected to be 5% lower on year, with refined production expected at 5.51 million ounces for 2025. This reflects a palladium-related decline in North America and reduced output in South Africa.
In 2024, the platinum market recorded an overall deficit of 995,000 ounces, 46% higher than WPIC’s prior estimates. That year, investment demand jumped 77% to 702,000 ounces on U.S. tariff uncertainty, largely in the final quarter of the year, and investment demand levels are set to remain elevated in 2025.
data from WSJ yesterday.
Gold has made a strong move, there is a chance that platinum is due for a bit of a rebound in 2025.
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anyone soft enough to invest in platinum should just go try to sell some and when you see the spread and how far on the wrong end of it you are you will hopefully come to your senses
If there is/was such a large deficit due to increased demand, then why didn't prices move? Is there a large inventory/supply that is being tapped?
Platinum supply from automotive recycling remains extremely weak given a shortage of end-of-life catalytic converters–which are fitted to combustion-engine vehicles to remove some pollutants from exhaust fumes–with total recycling expected at 1.50 million ounces. This is just 10,000 ounces higher than 2024’s 12-year low, and a downward revision of 278,000 ounces since WPIC’s last report in November.
“Because of the fear of [U.S.] tariffs, a lot of market participants who are active on NYMEX and were backing those positions with physical metal held in Europe, became concerned that if they do have to settle those positions, that material needs to be brought in from Europe,” Sterck said. “They would have to pay a tariff on that import, and so they’ve proactively started shifting metal into the U.S.”
Investment demand is expected to remain high at 606,000 ounces, with exchange-traded fund holdings and stocks held by exchanges set to rise by 100,000 ounces and 150,000 ounces respectively.
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i used to sell a lot of catalytic converters and not only have prices collapsed but its a miserable process.
i have to stamp the VIN number into the shell of the converter now.
If its only worth 30 dollars that is very annoying , back before the collapse at 300 dollars I feel differently, still annoying
I still have about 10 of them but I can't be bothered unless prices go up
Yep... it's the price spread between the buy and sell that keeps me away.
If you can pick it up close to spot, I think it’s a steal!
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Potential replacement for platinum in fuel cells:
LINK
There is also the risk that replacements for platinum/palladium could be developed for other industrial uses.
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From the article,
Cornell researchers Andrej Singer and Héctor Abruña explored an alternative cobalt-manganese oxide catalyst in a study published in Nature Catalysis.
They found that the catalyst held its structure well when exposed to quick voltage shifts, much better than less durable materials, reported Tech Xplore. Although the material didn't hold up as well through long-term exposure, the research helped identify important limitations. By pinpointing when and how it degrades, researchers can work toward improving the material and its stability.
Fuel cells use platinum as a catalyst to convert hydrogen and oxygen into electricity. Platinum is efficient and long-lasting, but it's also the driving factor behind the cost of a fuel cell.
It would be cool to see a good (and less costly) fuel cell developed, however the article sorta shoots itself in the foot when acknowledging that the material being studied is better than less durable materials, while at the same time acknowledging that platinum is efficient and long-lasting. It sounds like those less durable materials aren't platinum, so they don't appear to be comparing apples to apples.
Also, isn't cobalt one of those minerals that is mined in fairly unstable parts of the world, such as Congo?
I knew it would happen.
There are other alternatives to platinum being studied for fuel cells. More importantly, there appear to be viable alternatives to platinum/palladium being developed for catalytic converters. Annual demand for platinum in catalytic converters is more than 3x the annual demand for platinum in fuel cells.
According to ChatGPT, "Studies have investigated the use of cobalt-platinum nanoparticles as catalysts. These nanoparticles utilize less platinum and have demonstrated performance almost ten times better than platinum alone. Such innovations could lead to more cost-effective and efficient catalytic converters in the future."
About 500 times as much cobalt is mined each year as platinum and palladium combined, and cobalt currently costs less than one dollar per troy ounce. So using cobalt in catalytic converters would be cost-effective even at much higher cobalt prices, and would have negligible impact on overall cobalt demand.
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Good info. The issue seems to revolve around durability, and platinum is known for its resistance to electrical erosion. It sounds like the research into cobalt-platinum is worth the investigation. I believe that cobalt and nickel are combined in some high performance alloys, so these researchers may in fact be onto something.
I knew it would happen.
platinum will only ever be a paper trade. As a paper trade its as good as any other if you see an entry point have at it but make no mistake , buying platinum coins is the definition of insanity .
no one will ever get anywhere with those unless they inherit them at zero cost , then you might breakeven
Many Platinum Eagles have shown very impressive price gains in high grades, but maybe that's just an anomaly.
I knew it would happen.
are we backing out the ruinous cost of slabbing bullion? even if you scoop up already slabbed coins someone took a beating on that
the grading of bullion is problematic in and of itself and then
heaped on top of the US mints ridiculous premium pricing of bullion
and then the thin market and wide spreads
All that being said if i could manage to buy slabbed bullion back of spot i still can think of many better ways to invest in PMs
circulated war nickles for example
All that being said if i could manage to buy slabbed bullion back of spot i still can think of many better ways to invest in PMs
circulated war nickles for example
Am I right to assume that I haven't yet convinced you to back up the truck on some shiny-new Proof Platinum Eagles, and then get them certified?
I knew it would happen.
im on the fence
Platinum has gone as low as $830 and as high as $1200 in the last year. While gold was a low of $2,155.60 and is now around $3,000. Why would anyone think platinum is a good buy if it is down compared to its highest its been in the last year and gold has only gone up and is at its highest point ever?
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I was being a little facetious with bronco2078 in suggesting that he dive into Proof Plats, and he is correct in the points that he made about premiums, liquidity and costs in general.
As much as I like platinum as an essential industrial metal, I think that the fundamentals support silver quite a bit more than platinum as a physical precious metal investment. I'm not a big believer in paper precious metal buying either, mainly because the chain of ownership of ETFs is too opaque for my preferences.
I knew it would happen.
i like platinum I just see it as impossible to profit from buying it.
if you buy physical then eventually you have to sell it. Then the buyer will use the massive spread as a club to beat you . huge increases in spot produce only minor profit meanwhile any decline makes it impossible to exit without a huge loss
Typically moves up will not increase buy price because the buyer needs to "protect" themselves , meanwhile if spot goes down then buyer will rapidly lower buy price to also "protect" themselves
many times i see the buy prices as a way for buyers to avoid buying it at all , which i suppose is kinder strategy than slamming the door in your face or flipping the sign to closed if they see you coming up the walk.
There are worse PM's , palladium obviously and
rhodium
Prices realized for common Platinum Eagles on eBay all appear to be greater than spot, even after subtracting fees. So some demand does exist.
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Reports Russia has depleted their gold holdings -- and the metal ROSE despite that. Contrast that with palladium/platinum where they sold and crushed the price.
Gold has multiple bidders underneath: retail, institutional, SWFs, CBs, some industrial. The WMG's are LOSING buyers as EVs dominate. The entire China ICE demand issue went kablooey.
I watched an interview last night on Commodity Culture where the guy being interviewed stated that hybrids actually use more platinum than ICE vehicles and that while demand for EVs is declining, demand for hybrids is growing.
Also, Rafi Farber is pointing out that the platinum ratio to silver indicates that platinum is ripe for an upside move. I'm a little bit dubious, but we shall see.
I knew it would happen.