With current spot prices, is pre 33 gold at risk of being melted?

DeplorableDan · April 6, 2024 11:09AM

Spot has breached $2300, and the premiums on bullion grade pre 33 have basically evaporated. Raw libs and saints are being traded at melt, and even graded 63 and 64 generic saints are trading right around melt or a tad more. Pretty much everyone I talk to seems to be exiting their gold positions, and from what I understand the market makers have been dumping everything they have, and their bids on bullion+are extremely conservative (under melt).

It doesn’t seem like anybody here is buying, and from what I understand the demand seems to be coming from foreign banks, mainly china and India. With all of the foreign demand, does that put pre 33 at risk of being melted and consolidated?

jesbroken · April 6, 2024 11:25AM

With such low mintages, I would think it would affect future collecting and possibly increase common date coin values. Not a gold collector by any means, so just an opinion.
Jim

AUandAG · April 6, 2024 11:51AM

No, I don't believe so.

bob

lkenefic · April 6, 2024 11:51AM

If gold goes up much more, I'll have covered the premium I paid over melt on an MS65 $20 Saint...

Estil · April 6, 2024 11:52AM

I sure hope not. That would be sacrilege to melt historic coins just to make plain generic gold (or silver).

JW77 · April 6, 2024 11:58AM

I'm not in the camp that this is a fast run-up in price that will crash back below 2000. Prior run-ups above 2000 fell quickly, this move was stronger from a technical perspective. New highs broke a previous triple top. You might see some correction back to $2,100, but the technicals are pointing to a more bullish long term gain to the mid 2000s. I believe we will see $2,200 to $2,700 as a trading range in 2024. I would not be exiting gold right now. Nevertheless, commodities/metals are unpredictable, so only time will tell which camp is right.

SurfinxHI · April 6, 2024 11:59AM

Gold is basically melt now. It will depend on who wants to line their pockets with no premium numismatic gold.

I'm thinking CC gold might be nice at no premiums....

The occasional D or C gold too!

In all seriousness, higher grade stuff might be the way to go. Cheap premiums make 65/66 gold look appetizing. But it is much harder to liquidate if you need to, and keep the value.

Maybe a better question. Why melt numismatic gold if it acts like bullion? No need to, imo.

Typekat · April 6, 2024 12:03PM

The shrinking premiums on common circulated and jewelry-grade $20 are getting darn close…

Retailwise, when MS61, 62, 63 common $20 are selling for barely more than melt, who wants the crap coins?

DisneyFan · April 6, 2024 12:04PM

If I were concerned about owning a counterfeit, I would think a $20 gold coin in a slab would be referable to a one ounce gold bar.

coinbuf · April 6, 2024 12:05PM

@SurfinxHI said:
Maybe a better question. Why melt numismatic gold if it acts like bullion? No need to, imo.

This is my thought, why go to the time and expense to melt coins with zero value upside.

DeplorableDan · April 6, 2024 12:21PM

@coinbuf said:

@SurfinxHI said:
Maybe a better question. Why melt numismatic gold if it acts like bullion? No need to, imo.

This is my thought, why go to the time and expense to melt coins with zero value upside.

Thats essentially the basis of the question. Though it doesnt make sense to us, I wasnt sure if these foreign adversaries prefer their gold in bar form, or perhaps gold eagles or buffalos. It doesnt seem out of the realm of possibility for refiners to start melting down junky pre33 if theres no longer a numismatic premium, but i have little knowledge of the inner workings of the international gold market.

lermish · April 6, 2024 12:35PM

@DeplorableDan said:

@coinbuf said:

@SurfinxHI said:
Maybe a better question. Why melt numismatic gold if it acts like bullion? No need to, imo.

This is my thought, why go to the time and expense to melt coins with zero value upside.

Thats essentially the basis of the question. Though it doesnt make sense to us, I wasnt sure if these foreign adversaries prefer their gold in bar form, or perhaps gold eagles or buffalos. It doesnt seem out of the realm of possibility for refiners to start melting down junky pre33 if theres no longer a numismatic premium, but i have little knowledge of the inner workings of the international gold market.

This opinion is an informed guess but I don't have any data to back me up and could be totally wrong. That being said...

I don't think any country wants to deal with bags of coins even a little bit. I believe the vast majority is in ingot form and is shuffled between different storage areas in the same vaults. I also believe on the global scale, the vast majority of gold movement is on paper.

I really don't think the availability or not of any gold coins, whether pre33 or AGEs, premiums or no, has more than a very minor bearing on the flow/trading of gold on a global level.

MrEureka · April 6, 2024 12:40PM

To answer the OP, yes, of course.

And FWIW, now seems like a good time to trade bullion for generic US gold, such as 63 and 64 Saints and 63 20 Libs. Premiums will rebound one day, one way or another.

BillJones · April 6, 2024 12:55PM

@MrEureka said:
To answer the OP, yes, of course.

And FWIW, now seems like a good time to trade bullion for generic US gold, such as 63 and 64 Saints and 63 20 Libs. Premiums will rebound one day, one way or another.

The only problem with that is, will the $2,300 and higher price for gold hold up in the long run? If it doesn't, the whole idea falls like a house of cards.

I have seen brief periods, many years ago, when circulated pre-1933 U.S. gold coins sold for less than melt. That was usually a sign that bullion was posed to take a dive.

Clackamas1 · April 6, 2024 1:08PM

@SurfinxHI said:
Gold is basically melt now.

The occasional D or C gold too!

Yeah, that is not going to happen.

jmlanzaf · April 6, 2024 1:13PM

@DisneyFan said:
If I were concerned about owning a counterfeit, I would think a $20 gold coin in a slab would be referable to a one ounce gold bar.

There are counterfeit slabs and serial numbered gold bars. So, potato/potahto

jmlanzaf · April 6, 2024 1:15PM

@coinbuf said:

@SurfinxHI said:
Maybe a better question. Why melt numismatic gold if it acts like bullion? No need to, imo.

This is my thought, why go to the time and expense to melt coins with zero value upside.

Especially since it's not 24 karat. The bigger risk is jewelers melting it and mixing some silver in to get to 18 or 14 karat.

UltraHighRelief · April 6, 2024 1:18PM

Just let me know before you go melt your Territorials!

Clackamas1 · April 6, 2024 1:25PM

Ebay has mid 19th century AU $20 libs near spot.

MrEureka · April 6, 2024 1:25PM

@BillJones said:

@MrEureka said:
To answer the OP, yes, of course.

And FWIW, now seems like a good time to trade bullion for generic US gold, such as 63 and 64 Saints and 63 20 Libs. Premiums will rebound one day, one way or another.

The only problem with that is, will the $2,300 and higher price for gold hold up in the long run? If it doesn't, the whole idea falls like a house of cards.

I have seen brief periods, many years ago, when circulated pre-1933 U.S. gold coins sold for less than melt. That was usually a sign that bullion was posed to take a dive.

If you think that gold is going to tank, of course it’s better to sell your bullion position. But if for any reason you don’t want to sell your bullion, trading into slabbed 63 and 64 $20’s is better than doing nothing. Trading K-Rands for 64 Saints even up seems like a no-brainer to me.

BillJones · April 6, 2024 2:23PM

@MrEureka said:

@BillJones said:

@MrEureka said:
To answer the OP, yes, of course.

And FWIW, now seems like a good time to trade bullion for generic US gold, such as 63 and 64 Saints and 63 20 Libs. Premiums will rebound one day, one way or another.

The only problem with that is, will the $2,300 and higher price for gold hold up in the long run? If it doesn't, the whole idea falls like a house of cards.

I have seen brief periods, many years ago, when circulated pre-1933 U.S. gold coins sold for less than melt. That was usually a sign that bullion was posed to take a dive.

If you think that gold is going to tank, of course it’s better to sell your bullion position. But if for any reason you don’t want to sell your bullion, trading into slabbed 63 and 64 $20’s is better than doing nothing. Trading K-Rands for 64 Saints even up seems like a no-brainer to me.

Yes, trading K-Rands for 64 Saints would be a good deal. Is there anybody out there who is doing that? I have not handled K-Rands for almost 20 years when I was dealer. I had a customer who wanted to convert them into an early Bust Dollar. Back then I couldn't hardly sell them for reasons that escaped me. The South African racial policies were long gone, so what was wrong with K-Rands? I could find only one dealer at the Winter FUN show who would buy them.

coinkat · April 6, 2024 2:31PM

While that is a fair and reasonable question, I would suspect it would be common circs that have the gold content that supports the value- seems that if some get melted, few would know the difference. And just to be clear, I am NOT advocating that they be melted. The greater concern would be the World gold coin market both vintage and modern whereby the surviving population on a percentage basis would suffer far greater harm.

asheland · April 6, 2024 2:43PM

I’m not really buying or selling right now, but I do find it amazing that these following coins I am in below their melt value currently:

And even this one!

asheland · April 6, 2024 2:45PM

I have even more than I’m in below melt but I don’t want to get too tedious on this thread

coinkat · April 6, 2024 3:02PM

@asheland

well played.

DeplorableDan · April 6, 2024 3:09PM

@MrEureka said:
To answer the OP, yes, of course.

And FWIW, now seems like a good time to trade bullion for generic US gold, such as 63 and 64 Saints and 63 20 Libs. Premiums will rebound one day, one way or another.

Pretty much what im doing this weekend. Im dumping my buffalos, eagles, and other raw bullion , and my junky $10 and $20 libs. Keeping my graded saints and libs, and if spot dives back down I’ll buy more of them.

MilesWaits · April 6, 2024 3:13PM

BillJones,
As far as the K-Rands, they are unattractive to me and I will am willing to pay a greater premium for a Buffalo or Eagle.
That is interesting that one dealer only was interested in buying them. Maybe others have an opinion in that area.

DeplorableDan · April 6, 2024 3:15PM

@BillJones said:

@MrEureka said:

@BillJones said:

@MrEureka said:
To answer the OP, yes, of course.

And FWIW, now seems like a good time to trade bullion for generic US gold, such as 63 and 64 Saints and 63 20 Libs. Premiums will rebound one day, one way or another.

The only problem with that is, will the $2,300 and higher price for gold hold up in the long run? If it doesn't, the whole idea falls like a house of cards.

I have seen brief periods, many years ago, when circulated pre-1933 U.S. gold coins sold for less than melt. That was usually a sign that bullion was posed to take a dive.

If you think that gold is going to tank, of course it’s better to sell your bullion position. But if for any reason you don’t want to sell your bullion, trading into slabbed 63 and 64 $20’s is better than doing nothing. Trading K-Rands for 64 Saints even up seems like a no-brainer to me.

Yes, trading K-Rands for 64 Saints would be a good deal. Is there anybody out there who is doing that? I have not handled K-Rands for almost 20 years when I was dealer. I had a customer who wanted to convert them into an early Bust Dollar. Back then I couldn't hardly sell them for reasons that escaped me. The South African racial policies were long gone, so what was wrong with K-Rands? I could find only one dealer at the Winter FUN show who would buy them.

Currently, my wholesaler has a higher bid for raw random date k-rands than they do for pcgs 64 saints. I don’t mind k rands, I used to buy them here and there whenever I’d see them priced at spot.

BustDMs · April 6, 2024 3:16PM

Who would miss a few thousand low grade fives and tens that have been in the market near melt for longer than I want to admit. A short time during the pandemic doesn’t really count.

jmlanzaf · April 6, 2024 3:17PM

@BillJones said:

@MrEureka said:

@BillJones said:

@MrEureka said:
To answer the OP, yes, of course.

And FWIW, now seems like a good time to trade bullion for generic US gold, such as 63 and 64 Saints and 63 20 Libs. Premiums will rebound one day, one way or another.

The only problem with that is, will the $2,300 and higher price for gold hold up in the long run? If it doesn't, the whole idea falls like a house of cards.

I have seen brief periods, many years ago, when circulated pre-1933 U.S. gold coins sold for less than melt. That was usually a sign that bullion was posed to take a dive.

If you think that gold is going to tank, of course it’s better to sell your bullion position. But if for any reason you don’t want to sell your bullion, trading into slabbed 63 and 64 $20’s is better than doing nothing. Trading K-Rands for 64 Saints even up seems like a no-brainer to me.

Yes, trading K-Rands for 64 Saints would be a good deal. Is there anybody out there who is doing that? I have not handled K-Rands for almost 20 years when I was dealer. I had a customer who wanted to convert them into an early Bust Dollar. Back then I couldn't hardly sell them for reasons that escaped me. The South African racial policies were long gone, so what was wrong with K-Rands? I could find only one dealer at the Winter FUN show who would buy them.

K-rands trade under melt. They've really fallen into disfavor. But DD is right, the 64 Saints are slightly lower now.

jmlanzaf · April 6, 2024 3:22PM

@DeplorableDan said:

@BillJones said:

@MrEureka said:

@BillJones said:

@MrEureka said:
To answer the OP, yes, of course.

And FWIW, now seems like a good time to trade bullion for generic US gold, such as 63 and 64 Saints and 63 20 Libs. Premiums will rebound one day, one way or another.

The only problem with that is, will the $2,300 and higher price for gold hold up in the long run? If it doesn't, the whole idea falls like a house of cards.

I have seen brief periods, many years ago, when circulated pre-1933 U.S. gold coins sold for less than melt. That was usually a sign that bullion was posed to take a dive.

If you think that gold is going to tank, of course it’s better to sell your bullion position. But if for any reason you don’t want to sell your bullion, trading into slabbed 63 and 64 $20’s is better than doing nothing. Trading K-Rands for 64 Saints even up seems like a no-brainer to me.

Yes, trading K-Rands for 64 Saints would be a good deal. Is there anybody out there who is doing that? I have not handled K-Rands for almost 20 years when I was dealer. I had a customer who wanted to convert them into an early Bust Dollar. Back then I couldn't hardly sell them for reasons that escaped me. The South African racial policies were long gone, so what was wrong with K-Rands? I could find only one dealer at the Winter FUN show who would buy them.

Currently, my wholesaler has a higher bid for raw random date k-rands than they do for pcgs 64 saints. I don’t mind k rands, I used to buy them here and there whenever I’d see them priced at spot.

That's unusual. Usually people are under melt on Krands and at melt on Saints. But, currently, Upstate is buying at 99% and selling at 50 cents over. So, you're right, they are currently buying 64 Saints at $2295 which is slightly more than 1% back.

Curiouser and curiouser.

jkrk · April 6, 2024 3:25PM

@DeplorableDan said:
Spot has breached $2300, and the premiums on bullion grade pre 33 have basically evaporated. Raw libs and saints are being traded at melt, and even graded 63 and 64 generic saints are trading right around melt or a tad more. Pretty much everyone I talk to seems to be exiting their gold positions, and from what I understand the market makers have been dumping everything they have, and their bids on bullion+are extremely conservative (under melt).

It doesn’t seem like anybody here is buying, and from what I understand the demand seems to be coming from foreign banks, mainly china and India. With all of the foreign demand, does that put pre 33 at risk of being melted and consolidated?

Melted? For what purpose?

I am not shying away from buying slabbed near melt. Candidly, I haven't been offered many. I'm also a bit long so I'm talking my book.

As I understand it... the gold ETF's are seeing a net outflow and futures traders are not particularly bullish so you are correct that many holders have little interest in gold.

1980 top 800% move from 74 bottom .

2011 top... 600% move from 1998 bottom.

Now a 600% move would bring us to $6000 from the 2015 bottom. Ask me in a few years?

The US public only sells. The US public always had a strong $. to fall back on. In the future???? Is the east looking to create a new gold backed currency? Will money printing cease to work?

I am a bit offbeat, so IMO the rally in gold is in the early stage. Sharp drops ? Yes, but that is normal in the early stage.

If most were very positive, I would turn seller.

Then again, I just may be a gold bug. WTS, I'm Often wrong but never in doubt.

P0CKETCHANGE · April 6, 2024 3:42PM

No selling here. China will not have a piece of the @P0CKETCHANGE collection—that’s for certain!

I expect any pullback to be just a blip on a march much higher. Trying to time it is risky and might leave you in the dust. Not to mention the income taxes on gains, esp. if you’ve only held short-term and are in higher tax brackets.

What it does change for me is going after slabbed pre-33 instead of bullion, as long as the premiums remain low.

rte592 · April 6, 2024 3:45PM

@coinkat said:
@asheland

well played.

Every gold I own is under spot.
The next piece will kill that streak

Smudge · April 6, 2024 3:45PM

I like a steady upward movement in PM’s. Big jumps make me nervous.

SurfinxHI · April 6, 2024 4:10PM

@Clackamas1 said:

@SurfinxHI said:
Gold is basically melt now.

The occasional D or C gold too!

Yeah, that is not going to happen.

I can hope, man!

Cougar1978 · April 6, 2024 5:07PM

Been buying slabbed $20 Libs and Saints MS63-65 filled up box of 20, PCGS.

As far as thread ques hope Classic US Gold not melted. Wb very depressing.

davewesen · April 6, 2024 5:17PM

Is the value of gold going up faster than the value of US$ is going down?

What percentage of the 90% silver coinage got melted during the Hunt brothers spike?

asheland · April 6, 2024 5:21PM

@davewesen said:
Is the value of gold going up faster than the value of US$ is going down?

What percentage of the 90% silver coinage got melted during the Hunt brothers spike?

I wondered the same, but it’s obviously the gold is going up faster than the dollar going down. Otherwise everything else would be going up really fast as well.

That’s the way I understand it.

coinbuf · April 6, 2024 6:32PM

@davewesen said:
Is the value of gold going up faster than the value of US$ is going down?

What percentage of the 90% silver coinage got melted during the Hunt brothers spike?

The dollar is not moving down at least not much, in fact it is up since the first of 2024. The typical inverse relationship between gold and the dollar value is not really in play at the moment.

golden · April 7, 2024 12:26PM

I just do not see it happening.

Cougar1978 · April 7, 2024 1:03PM

Not unless problem details material. Sales on that part of my inventory have done well cash flow wise and remain in demand. Got some good buys too for my storage boxes.

Tom147 · April 7, 2024 5:46PM

@davewesen said:
What percentage of the 90% silver coinage got melted during the Hunt brothers spike?

I think that would be an educated guess at best. Absolutely no way to tell. I remember lines of 2 and 3 hundred people lined up at a local hotel selling everything silver. This went on every couple weeks for a few months. And then BANG !!! The rules were changed. There surely was alot of silver in the pipeline that speculators got stuck with. What happened to the silver these guys paid upwards of $ 50.00 an oz. now forth 1/10 of that ? Anybody's guess. My question would be ( again, no way to answer ) how many numismatic rarities were melted along with the common stuff ? How many 92-S, 93-S Morgans, 16-D Mercury dimes or 21 Walkers went into the smelting pot ? I shudder to think about it.

davewesen · April 7, 2024 7:55PM

you don't think the buyers at the hotel sold everything to the smelters and bought it at (deep) discount?

Overdate · April 7, 2024 8:11PM

At this writing gold is at $2344, up $15 on the day so far.

If the paper short theory is true, there could be some short covering going on.

Cougar1978 · April 7, 2024 8:21PM

$5,000

csdot · April 7, 2024 8:23PM

Real Estate, the stock market, gold and silver, everything seems to be going up. Crazy times!

oreville · April 7, 2024 9:09PM

@csdot said:
Real Estate, the stock market, gold and silver, everything seems to be going up. Crazy times!

Even food.

ARCO · April 8, 2024 6:00PM

It should be a crime to melt Liberty double eagles and Saints. Might as well spray paint the mona lisa.

ARCO · April 8, 2024 6:03PM

@Tom147 said:

@davewesen said:
What percentage of the 90% silver coinage got melted during the Hunt brothers spike?

I think that would be an educated guess at best. Absolutely no way to tell. I remember lines of 2 and 3 hundred people lined up at a local hotel selling everything silver. This went on every couple weeks for a few months. And then BANG !!! The rules were changed. There surely was alot of silver in the pipeline that speculators got stuck with. What happened to the silver these guys paid upwards of $ 50.00 an oz. now forth 1/10 of that ? Anybody's guess. My question would be ( again, no way to answer ) how many numismatic rarities were melted along with the common stuff ? How many 92-S, 93-S Morgans, 16-D Mercury dimes or 21 Walkers went into the smelting pot ? I shudder to think about it.

I don't think the numismatic premium dates were melted. Everything sold for bullion was long picked over and the better dates removed from the junk silver bags.

Tom147 · April 8, 2024 6:12PM

@ARCO said:
I don't think the numismatic premium dates were melted. Everything sold for bullion was long picked over and the better dates removed from the junk silver bags.

For the most part, I agree with you. I do know two individuals that sold silver left to them by relatives. One, a collection. The other just a handful of coins left in a small box. I did not find this out until after it was sold. Neither of them had any numismatic knowledge. Yea, probably common stuff but I'd like to have looked at the albums holding the collection. I don't think the speculators buying it had the time to sort it given the amount of silver coming through the system. Don't know your age sir, but if your near me in age, you remember the frenzy during that time. It was crazy. I held on to all of mine. In hindsight, I probably should have sold my common date circulated stuff.

With current spot prices, is pre 33 gold at risk of being melted?

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