Time to go trim some bonsai trees, trim some weed, pack a bowl, go swimming, walk around my brand new house, list some more coins and enjoy this fantastic day in Sunny Southern California
It's a FACT that turnover matters.
What's better: turning over your inventory (fully invested) once per year with a 100% profit margin or 10 times per year with a 10% profit margin?
@ctf_error_coins said:
What happens when a very thin market grows?
Is it possible to buy coins in very thin market that are undervalued perhaps due to horriblephotography or marketing or timing or connections?
It's possible but it's much more likely that there is no true known value because the market is so thin and they may be undervalued or overvalued or properly valued but even an expert like yourself can't be 100% positive about every coin. This is true of ALL thin markets that don't have true price discovery.
Time to go trim some bonsai trees, trim some weed, pack a bowl, go swimming, walk around my brand new house, list some more coins and enjoy this fantastic day in Sunny Southern California
It's a FACT that turnover matters.
What's better: turning over your inventory (fully invested) once per year with a 100% profit margin or 10 times per year with a 10% profit margin?
TRUTH!
That is hilarious and you just made my early point.
Enjoy your day sir, I am enjoying mine and will continue to do so.
Time to go trim some bonsai trees, trim some weed, pack a bowl, go swimming, walk around my brand new house, list some more coins and enjoy this fantastic day in Sunny Southern California
It's a FACT that turnover matters.
What's better: turning over your inventory (fully invested) once per year with a 100% profit margin or 10 times per year with a 10% profit margin?
TRUTH!
That is hilarious and you just made my early point.
Enjoy your day sir, I am enjoying mine and will continue to do so.
No answer?
I'll give you a hint, 10% turned over 10 times is significantly better than 100% once.
Time to go trim some bonsai trees, trim some weed, pack a bowl, go swimming, walk around my brand new house, list some more coins and enjoy this fantastic day in Sunny Southern California
It's a FACT that turnover matters.
What's better: turning over your inventory (fully invested) once per year with a 100% profit margin or 10 times per year with a 10% profit margin?
TRUTH!
That is hilarious and you just made my early point.
Enjoy your day sir, I am enjoying mine and will continue to do so.
No answer?
I'll give you a hint, 10% turned over 10 times is significantly better than 100% once.
I'm enjoying my day. Glad you are also.
I always thought I was a great at math, but your the pro at it
The real question is wether you use a calculator or your gut to price your coins.
Time to go trim some bonsai trees, trim some weed, pack a bowl, go swimming, walk around my brand new house, list some more coins and enjoy this fantastic day in Sunny Southern California
It's a FACT that turnover matters.
What's better: turning over your inventory (fully invested) once per year with a 100% profit margin or 10 times per year with a 10% profit margin?
TRUTH!
That is hilarious and you just made my early point.
Enjoy your day sir, I am enjoying mine and will continue to do so.
No answer?
I'll give you a hint, 10% turned over 10 times is significantly better than 100% once.
I'm enjoying my day. Glad you are also.
I always thought I was a great at math, but your the pro at it
The real question is wether you use a calculator or your gut to price your coins.
A 10% profit compounded 10 times is 150% cumulative profit.
You believe in TRUTH but not math?
I actually use a price guide or do some mental math. No calculator required. Sometimes I just start the auction at my break even number.
Why would I want to be a bullion dealer, zero desire. Zero professional satisfaction.
Why would I want to do high turnover when I am a one man operation and have other hobbies to deal with for fun.
My business model could be applied to many segments of the numismatic market. Dealing in the best rainbow toned Morgan dollars for example. How about only high end mint state tokens. So many options.
Here is the key to the business model besides supremeeyeappeal ...
... superhighendcoinphotography so your client knows exactly what they are getting
@ctf_error_coins said:
What happens when a very thin market grows?
Is it possible to buy coins in very thin market that are undervalued perhaps due to horriblephotography or marketing or timing or connections?
It's possible but it's much more likely that there is no true known value because the market is so thin and they may be undervalued or overvalued or properly valued but even an expert like yourself can't be 100% positive about every coin. This is true of ALL thin markets that don't have true price discovery.
You’re badly mistaken. He CAN be 100% positive about every coin. He said so, himself.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@ctf_error_coins said:
What happens when a very thin market grows?
Is it possible to buy coins in very thin market that are undervalued perhaps due to horriblephotography or marketing or timing or connections?
It's possible but it's much more likely that there is no true known value because the market is so thin and they may be undervalued or overvalued or properly valued but even an expert like yourself can't be 100% positive about every coin. This is true of ALL thin markets that don't have true price discovery.
You’re badly mistaken. He CAN be 100% positive about every coin. He said so, himself.
Yes indeed when you make the market.
To be fair, in this thread I did say that I made mistakes in the past, learned from them and no longer make mistakes.
@ctf_error_coins said:
What happens when a very thin market grows?
Is it possible to buy coins in very thin market that are undervalued perhaps due to horriblephotography or marketing or timing or connections?
It is possible to buy coins at a price which you believe will allow you to make a profit when you resell. There are any number of reasons that might explain such a circumstance, including more demand than previously existed.
But that is not even a little bit like proving that coins are "undervalued." Markets change over time, and buying in bulk from another dealer can get the buyer a discount.
Edit--I see that this thread has devolved into silly insults; I'm out.
My balance sheet proves it but you got to take my word for it because I ain't making that public.
I guess what gets me is that YN's that want to pursue a fulfilling career in Numismatics get some not so good advise on how to operate a successful full time business.
I want them to know there is another way rather than the tradition route.
This is an internet world and so many are still analog.
@alefzero said:
CC Morgans of several dates are a good example. Lower mintages, but far higher survival rates than some comparable dates since a huge part of the mintages were stored in vaults and never actually distributed into commerce.
Exactly. That's what's making my search so difficult. I'm putting together a set of CIRCULATED Carson City Morgans, and I've found that mint state specimens absolutely dominate 1880-1885. I still cannot locate a VF35-AU50 1884-CC, and the other five in that date range gave me fits, and I even had to pay over "book" for three of those. I'd pay better than mint state prices for a circulated 1884. I chose the road less traveled, as I wanted coins that had an actual history -- coins that actually changed hands during everyday transactions procuring goods and supplies, not coins sitting in a government vault 80-100 years.
My balance sheet proves it but you got to take my word for it because I ain't making that public.
Apparently, anyone who buys a coin and resells it for a profit, had acquired an “undervalued” coin. That would even include people who knowingly buy counterfeits at low prices and resell them to unsuspecting buyers for large profits. When those sellers acquired them, the counterfeits were severely “undervalued”. And their balance sheets prove it.😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
My balance sheet proves it but you got to take my word for it because I ain't making that public.
Apparently, anyone who buys a coin and resells it for a profit, had acquired an “undervalued” coin. That would even include people who knowingly buy counterfeits at low prices and resell them to unsuspecting buyers for large profits. When those sellers acquired them, the counterfeits were severely “undervalued”. And their balance sheets prove it.😉
PCGS needs to add a drop down glossary.
Walmart's balance sheet must prove that bread is undervalued.
@ctf_error_coins said:
Why would I want to be a bullion dealer, zero desire. Zero professional satisfaction.
Why would I want to do high turnover when I am a one man operation and have other hobbies to deal with for fun.
My business model could be applied to many segments of the numismatic market. Dealing in the best rainbow toned Morgan dollars for example. How about only high end mint state tokens. So many options.
Here is the key to the business model besides supremeeyeappeal ...
... superhighendcoinphotography so your client knows exactly what they are getting
No one told you to go into the bullion business. But no one, other than you, is insulting people for pointing out how aspects of business work.
@ctf_error_coins said:
Why would I want to be a bullion dealer, zero desire. Zero professional satisfaction.
Why would I want to do high turnover when I am a one man operation and have other hobbies to deal with for fun.
My business model could be applied to many segments of the numismatic market. Dealing in the best rainbow toned Morgan dollars for example. How about only high end mint state tokens. So many options.
Here is the key to the business model besides supremeeyeappeal ...
... superhighendcoinphotography so your client knows exactly what they are getting
No one told you to go into the bullion business. But no one, other than you, is insulting people for pointing out how aspects of business work.
You have always insulted my business model and imo you give out poor business information.
@ctf_error_coins said:
Why would I want to be a bullion dealer, zero desire. Zero professional satisfaction.
Why would I want to do high turnover when I am a one man operation and have other hobbies to deal with for fun.
My business model could be applied to many segments of the numismatic market. Dealing in the best rainbow toned Morgan dollars for example. How about only high end mint state tokens. So many options.
Here is the key to the business model besides supremeeyeappeal ...
... superhighendcoinphotography so your client knows exactly what they are getting
No one told you to go into the bullion business. But no one, other than you, is insulting people for pointing out how aspects of business work.
You have always insulted my business model and imo you give out poor business information.
I have NEVER "insulted" your business model. I have pointed out (correctly) that turnover is an actual thing. And, believe it or not, your business would actually benefit from higher turnover. Almost any business would benefit from higher turnover because it decreases capital needs and compounds profit margins. You don't HAVE to change. But that's different than calling it bad business advice.
If you want to give good advice to YNs, telling them to ignore turnover and avoid liquid low-margin rapid turnover material is probably not the best advice. Most BM coin stores do not stay open on low turnover, high margin material. They pay their expenses with good old low margin, high turnover bullion and scrap.
And if you would like a little "business advice", or even if you wouldn't, I'm not sure strutting on forums and telling people that you only buy "undervalued coins" is the best way to get them to sell to you.
@Walkerguy21D said:
There are a handful of truly rare US coins, but most of them are not in popular collected series.
Most scarce dates are available in some kind of condition, but could be undesirable except as hole fillers. I think most “key” dates are actually condition rarities. To the collectors they seem rare because they are searching for a scarce coin, but in a particular grade in a particular holder at a certain price point.
If you think “there are only a handful of truly rare U.S. coins” then your definition of “truly rare” is the strictest I’ve heard of. How few known examples of a particular coin do there need to be for you to consider it “truly rare”? Fewer than 10? 5? 3?
Along the lines of the aforementioned 1894S dime….like R7ish.
And how would you define it?
I’m not sure how I’d define “truly rare” but my number would certainly be greater than 10. And even using your own example of 1894-S dimes would constitute more than a “handful”.
So your definition of truly rare might be as high as 20, 30, or more? If so, then that certainly differs from my opinion.
Yes, my definition might be 20 or more.
Curiously, how do you distinguish “truly rare” from “rare”?
And again, even using your own example of 1894-S dimes as coins that would qualify, the number is more than your initial “only a handful of truly rare coins”.
Rarity in practical terms is equal to demand over supply. It represents the intensity of competition. It's an "If a tree falls in the woods..." sort of thing. Any discussion of actual numbers of items is essentially irrelevant without knowing the demand for this item.
(My a priori thinking documented, now I'll read the rest of this thread)
I don't think that's a good definition. So if there's a million of them but 1.1 million people that want them, they are "rare"?
By your definition, houses are "rare" because there's at least one person who wants one that doesn't have one.
No. You have that sort of situation with proof sets. Rarity is when that ratio of demand to supply is much higher than your example.
@Walkerguy21D said:
There are a handful of truly rare US coins, but most of them are not in popular collected series.
Most scarce dates are available in some kind of condition, but could be undesirable except as hole fillers. I think most “key” dates are actually condition rarities. To the collectors they seem rare because they are searching for a scarce coin, but in a particular grade in a particular holder at a certain price point.
If you think “there are only a handful of truly rare U.S. coins” then your definition of “truly rare” is the strictest I’ve heard of. How few known examples of a particular coin do there need to be for you to consider it “truly rare”? Fewer than 10? 5? 3?
Along the lines of the aforementioned 1894S dime….like R7ish.
And how would you define it?
I’m not sure how I’d define “truly rare” but my number would certainly be greater than 10. And even using your own example of 1894-S dimes would constitute more than a “handful”.
So your definition of truly rare might be as high as 20, 30, or more? If so, then that certainly differs from my opinion.
Yes, my definition might be 20 or more.
Curiously, how do you distinguish “truly rare” from “rare”?
And again, even using your own example of 1894-S dimes as coins that would qualify, the number is more than your initial “only a handful of truly rare coins”.
Rarity in practical terms is equal to demand over supply. It represents the intensity of competition. It's an "If a tree falls in the woods..." sort of thing. Any discussion of actual numbers of items is essentially irrelevant without knowing the demand for this item.
(My a priori thinking documented, now I'll read the rest of this thread)
I don't think that's a good definition. So if there's a million of them but 1.1 million people that want them, they are "rare"?
By your definition, houses are "rare" because there's at least one person who wants one that doesn't have one.
I agree. That definition spoke to availability, based on supply and demand, not rarity. If there are X number of a given coin in existence, the coin doesn’t become more or less rare, just because demand fluctuates.
Who cares if it's deemed rare if there's no demand for the coin?
@Walkerguy21D said:
There are a handful of truly rare US coins, but most of them are not in popular collected series.
Most scarce dates are available in some kind of condition, but could be undesirable except as hole fillers. I think most “key” dates are actually condition rarities. To the collectors they seem rare because they are searching for a scarce coin, but in a particular grade in a particular holder at a certain price point.
If you think “there are only a handful of truly rare U.S. coins” then your definition of “truly rare” is the strictest I’ve heard of. How few known examples of a particular coin do there need to be for you to consider it “truly rare”? Fewer than 10? 5? 3?
Along the lines of the aforementioned 1894S dime….like R7ish.
And how would you define it?
I’m not sure how I’d define “truly rare” but my number would certainly be greater than 10. And even using your own example of 1894-S dimes would constitute more than a “handful”.
So your definition of truly rare might be as high as 20, 30, or more? If so, then that certainly differs from my opinion.
Yes, my definition might be 20 or more.
Curiously, how do you distinguish “truly rare” from “rare”?
And again, even using your own example of 1894-S dimes as coins that would qualify, the number is more than your initial “only a handful of truly rare coins”.
Rarity in practical terms is equal to demand over supply. It represents the intensity of competition. It's an "If a tree falls in the woods..." sort of thing. Any discussion of actual numbers of items is essentially irrelevant without knowing the demand for this item.
(My a priori thinking documented, now I'll read the rest of this thread)
I don't think that's a good definition. So if there's a million of them but 1.1 million people that want them, they are "rare"?
By your definition, houses are "rare" because there's at least one person who wants one that doesn't have one.
I agree. That definition spoke to availability, based on supply and demand, not rarity. If there are X number of a given coin in existence, the coin doesn’t become more or less rare, just because demand fluctuates.
Who cares if it's deemed rare if there's no demand for the coin?
That’s one of the points that’s been made and discussed in this thread - rarity, alone, doesn’t necessarily result in high value. But that’s not a valid reason to distort the meaning of “rare” by equating it with instances in which demand exceeds supply. A coin doesn’t magically become rarer, due to higher demand, though it can become more valuable.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@ctf_error_coins said:
Turn over and flipping are two extremely different things.
Replacement inventory is a major concern and super labor intensive.
My excess capital is in cash and stocks because buying new inventory is extremely difficult.
I literally can't find any coins right now that fit my extremely tight guidelines.
My last 10 hobby purchases have been expensive bonsai trees and bait to go Sport fishing on a private boat.
And that can all be part of the equation. But that's not the same as saying that turnover doesn't help.
True story. I flirted with being a full-time coin dealer at one time. The problem was - as you mention - it was just so hard to constantly find new material worth buying that I went back to teaching. LOL. Had I been more patient, I probably could have gotten there, but I could turn it over faster than I could buy it. And I didn't have deep enough pockets at the time to plumb deeper waters.
I like 55 doubled die cents. Your curved clip doesn't interest me.
As a major error coin dealer/collector, I have never owned a 1955 Double Die because it is way too common.
I'll take that clip every day because it is way undervalued and way way more rare.
I know. But, of course, you're also talking your book.
I don't believe any US coin is overvalued or undervalued. The market is too mature for that.
What do you call coins that hit the auction block and blow past published prices?
It does depend on a personal perspective of what is a key coin.
IMO too much emphasis on pricing and mintage and notoriety, not enough on information and facts.
We live in the age of information, conventional wisdom of what is key or rare or scarce is evolving.
It's not that widely hunted coins are "key" - it's that "key" coins tend to be widely hunted.
Coins "that hit the auction block and blow past published prices" aren't necessarily "key" or rare. They're coins that, for reason or another, one or more buyers were willing to pay those prices.
I was responding to the quote that there are no undervalued coins.
And the answer us that no single coin ever represents published averages. In a market as mature and deep as the US everything is properly valued on average. If I go to an estate sale and I'm the only coin guy there and buy an 85CC dollar for $50, that doesn't mean the coin was overvalued previously. And if two people jump on an 85CC toner and bid it up to $100,000 that doesn't mean it was undervalued previously.
The market is mature but thinly traded. Referencing a recent example, the Fairmont material. Much of it blew past the original published price guides. Even the recent non-CAC is keeping up with the revised published prices. Price dislocations occur daily. I do not know what depth you are referring to. Maybe TPG Morgans? That is a singe segment of the marketplace.
Regarding the original post, there is no absolute answer to the original question. There are some coins that are key as facts, conventional wisdom and history suggests, and there are some coins that are not key as post web listings affirm. The "key" is to be as informed as possible and a student of the series you are collecting IMO.
I like 55 doubled die cents. Your curved clip doesn't interest me.
As a major error coin dealer/collector, I have never owned a 1955 Double Die because it is way too common.
I'll take that clip every day because it is way undervalued and way way more rare.
I know. But, of course, you're also talking your book.
I don't believe any US coin is overvalued or undervalued. The market is too mature for that.
What do you call coins that hit the auction block and blow past published prices?
It does depend on a personal perspective of what is a key coin.
IMO too much emphasis on pricing and mintage and notoriety, not enough on information and facts.
We live in the age of information, conventional wisdom of what is key or rare or scarce is evolving.
It's not that widely hunted coins are "key" - it's that "key" coins tend to be widely hunted.
Coins "that hit the auction block and blow past published prices" aren't necessarily "key" or rare. They're coins that, for reason or another, one or more buyers were willing to pay those prices.
I was responding to the quote that there are no undervalued coins.
Thank you. In that case, I think it would be fair to say that some coins which blow past published prices might be undervalued, relative to the price guides. However, the prices realized for those coins merely reflect the value to one or more bidders at that point in time. That doesn't necessarily mean that the price guides undervalued them. And even if they did, the market spoke.
Your welcome. I agree with your first part of the response. But to add when the market speaks we all should listen carefully.
@Walkerguy21D said:
There are a handful of truly rare US coins, but most of them are not in popular collected series.
Most scarce dates are available in some kind of condition, but could be undesirable except as hole fillers. I think most “key” dates are actually condition rarities. To the collectors they seem rare because they are searching for a scarce coin, but in a particular grade in a particular holder at a certain price point.
If you think “there are only a handful of truly rare U.S. coins” then your definition of “truly rare” is the strictest I’ve heard of. How few known examples of a particular coin do there need to be for you to consider it “truly rare”? Fewer than 10? 5? 3?
Along the lines of the aforementioned 1894S dime….like R7ish.
And how would you define it?
I’m not sure how I’d define “truly rare” but my number would certainly be greater than 10. And even using your own example of 1894-S dimes would constitute more than a “handful”.
So your definition of truly rare might be as high as 20, 30, or more? If so, then that certainly differs from my opinion.
Yes, my definition might be 20 or more.
Curiously, how do you distinguish “truly rare” from “rare”?
And again, even using your own example of 1894-S dimes as coins that would qualify, the number is more than your initial “only a handful of truly rare coins”.
Rarity in practical terms is equal to demand over supply. It represents the intensity of competition. It's an "If a tree falls in the woods..." sort of thing. Any discussion of actual numbers of items is essentially irrelevant without knowing the demand for this item.
(My a priori thinking documented, now I'll read the rest of this thread)
I don't think that's a good definition. So if there's a million of them but 1.1 million people that want them, they are "rare"?
By your definition, houses are "rare" because there's at least one person who wants one that doesn't have one.
I agree. That definition spoke to availability, based on supply and demand, not rarity. If there are X number of a given coin in existence, the coin doesn’t become more or less rare, just because demand fluctuates.
But that's all that matters in this hobby. Rarity is meaningless without collector demand in this hobby.
I collect Newfoundland halves where mintages are in the tens of thousands for most dates. One can purchase a decent example of every date for under $50 apiece.
I own an R8 die variety that grades F15. When it comes time to sell it, I'll bet it sells for less than a 16-D Merc dime in AG3, of which PCGS has slabbed about 4000. How much would it sell for if it were a Bust Half? The numbers of a certain dates are fun to think about but that demand to supply ratio is what brings relevance to rarity. It's really all that's meaningful to most collectors.
Anyway, I thought up this approach on the fly, but I like to collect and think about numerically rare things (coins and specialized insects) and rarity has different meaning/significance it seems depending upon the item.
@Walkerguy21D said:
There are a handful of truly rare US coins, but most of them are not in popular collected series.
Most scarce dates are available in some kind of condition, but could be undesirable except as hole fillers. I think most “key” dates are actually condition rarities. To the collectors they seem rare because they are searching for a scarce coin, but in a particular grade in a particular holder at a certain price point.
If you think “there are only a handful of truly rare U.S. coins” then your definition of “truly rare” is the strictest I’ve heard of. How few known examples of a particular coin do there need to be for you to consider it “truly rare”? Fewer than 10? 5? 3?
Along the lines of the aforementioned 1894S dime….like R7ish.
And how would you define it?
I’m not sure how I’d define “truly rare” but my number would certainly be greater than 10. And even using your own example of 1894-S dimes would constitute more than a “handful”.
So your definition of truly rare might be as high as 20, 30, or more? If so, then that certainly differs from my opinion.
Yes, my definition might be 20 or more.
Curiously, how do you distinguish “truly rare” from “rare”?
And again, even using your own example of 1894-S dimes as coins that would qualify, the number is more than your initial “only a handful of truly rare coins”.
Rarity in practical terms is equal to demand over supply. It represents the intensity of competition. It's an "If a tree falls in the woods..." sort of thing. Any discussion of actual numbers of items is essentially irrelevant without knowing the demand for this item.
(My a priori thinking documented, now I'll read the rest of this thread)
I don't think that's a good definition. So if there's a million of them but 1.1 million people that want them, they are "rare"?
By your definition, houses are "rare" because there's at least one person who wants one that doesn't have one.
I agree. That definition spoke to availability, based on supply and demand, not rarity. If there are X number of a given coin in existence, the coin doesn’t become more or less rare, just because demand fluctuates.
Who cares if it's deemed rare if there's no demand for the coin?
That’s one of the points that’s been made and discussed in this thread - rarity, alone, doesn’t necessarily result in high value. But that’s not a valid reason to distort the meaning of “rare” by equating it with instances in which demand exceeds supply. A coin doesn’t magically become rarer, due to higher demand, though it can become more valuable.
But it's a different and interesting way to think of rarity, though. A coin's rarity becomes meaningful with demand. Otherwise, who really concerns themselves with its rarity? You can look at and contemplate numerical rarity (as I'm working on now with the 42-O small date, and 74-S DMs), but it strikes me as having little meaning in the hobby without demand. So, for this discussion, I express it as a unitless number in terms of supply and demand to toss up that idea to bat around. Call it rarity expressed as a unitless number. If only we knew the true numbers of coins and collectors out there interested in them, we could have fun running analyses of this and its relation to value. That might take some of the fun out of the hobby.
Among SLHs, an R3 die marriage (200-500 coins) in G4 can range in value from $50 to $500 (40-O WB4) or more. How people feel about the scarcity of an R3 coin depends upon the demand for that coin. People get agitated when I mention that the 40-(O) WB4 is common. The 40-O WB4 is a common die marriage that's worth ten times what most R3s are worth. I personally don't consider a die marriage to be numerically rare unless there are under 30 examples thought to exist (R6-R8) but I collect in the SLH world, where the premium for even an R6 DM may range from $0(?) to thousands depending upon demand.
Anyway, it's been fun. I want to go back and read the rest of this interesting discussion. Thanks!
@Walkerguy21D said:
There are a handful of truly rare US coins, but most of them are not in popular collected series.
Most scarce dates are available in some kind of condition, but could be undesirable except as hole fillers. I think most “key” dates are actually condition rarities. To the collectors they seem rare because they are searching for a scarce coin, but in a particular grade in a particular holder at a certain price point.
If you think “there are only a handful of truly rare U.S. coins” then your definition of “truly rare” is the strictest I’ve heard of. How few known examples of a particular coin do there need to be for you to consider it “truly rare”? Fewer than 10? 5? 3?
Along the lines of the aforementioned 1894S dime….like R7ish.
And how would you define it?
I’m not sure how I’d define “truly rare” but my number would certainly be greater than 10. And even using your own example of 1894-S dimes would constitute more than a “handful”.
So your definition of truly rare might be as high as 20, 30, or more? If so, then that certainly differs from my opinion.
Yes, my definition might be 20 or more.
Curiously, how do you distinguish “truly rare” from “rare”?
And again, even using your own example of 1894-S dimes as coins that would qualify, the number is more than your initial “only a handful of truly rare coins”.
Rarity in practical terms is equal to demand over supply. It represents the intensity of competition. It's an "If a tree falls in the woods..." sort of thing. Any discussion of actual numbers of items is essentially irrelevant without knowing the demand for this item.
(My a priori thinking documented, now I'll read the rest of this thread)
I don't think that's a good definition. So if there's a million of them but 1.1 million people that want them, they are "rare"?
By your definition, houses are "rare" because there's at least one person who wants one that doesn't have one.
I agree. That definition spoke to availability, based on supply and demand, not rarity. If there are X number of a given coin in existence, the coin doesn’t become more or less rare, just because demand fluctuates.
Who cares if it's deemed rare if there's no demand for the coin?
That’s one of the points that’s been made and discussed in this thread - rarity, alone, doesn’t necessarily result in high value. But that’s not a valid reason to distort the meaning of “rare” by equating it with instances in which demand exceeds supply. A coin doesn’t magically become rarer, due to higher demand, though it can become more valuable.
But it's a different and interesting way to think of rarity, though. A coin's rarity becomes meaningful with demand. Otherwise, who cares? LOL!
I could not disagree more. You're conflating two different things. Yes, supply and demand matter when setting price. But to equates rarity with price makes it impossible to talk about. Your definition leaves you with "rare coins" with 100,000 examples and "not rare" coins with only 5 examples. You've made the meaning of "rare" meaningless.
@Walkerguy21D said:
There are a handful of truly rare US coins, but most of them are not in popular collected series.
Most scarce dates are available in some kind of condition, but could be undesirable except as hole fillers. I think most “key” dates are actually condition rarities. To the collectors they seem rare because they are searching for a scarce coin, but in a particular grade in a particular holder at a certain price point.
If you think “there are only a handful of truly rare U.S. coins” then your definition of “truly rare” is the strictest I’ve heard of. How few known examples of a particular coin do there need to be for you to consider it “truly rare”? Fewer than 10? 5? 3?
Along the lines of the aforementioned 1894S dime….like R7ish.
And how would you define it?
I’m not sure how I’d define “truly rare” but my number would certainly be greater than 10. And even using your own example of 1894-S dimes would constitute more than a “handful”.
So your definition of truly rare might be as high as 20, 30, or more? If so, then that certainly differs from my opinion.
Yes, my definition might be 20 or more.
Curiously, how do you distinguish “truly rare” from “rare”?
And again, even using your own example of 1894-S dimes as coins that would qualify, the number is more than your initial “only a handful of truly rare coins”.
Rarity in practical terms is equal to demand over supply. It represents the intensity of competition. It's an "If a tree falls in the woods..." sort of thing. Any discussion of actual numbers of items is essentially irrelevant without knowing the demand for this item.
(My a priori thinking documented, now I'll read the rest of this thread)
I don't think that's a good definition. So if there's a million of them but 1.1 million people that want them, they are "rare"?
By your definition, houses are "rare" because there's at least one person who wants one that doesn't have one.
I agree. That definition spoke to availability, based on supply and demand, not rarity. If there are X number of a given coin in existence, the coin doesn’t become more or less rare, just because demand fluctuates.
Who cares if it's deemed rare if there's no demand for the coin?
That’s one of the points that’s been made and discussed in this thread - rarity, alone, doesn’t necessarily result in high value. But that’s not a valid reason to distort the meaning of “rare” by equating it with instances in which demand exceeds supply. A coin doesn’t magically become rarer, due to higher demand, though it can become more valuable.
But it's a different and interesting way to think of rarity, though. A coin's rarity becomes meaningful with demand. Otherwise, who cares? LOL!
I could not disagree more. You're conflating two different things. Yes, supply and demand matter when setting price. But to equates rarity with price makes it impossible to talk about. Your definition leaves you with "rare coins" with 100,000 examples and "not rare" coins with only 5 examples. You've made the meaning of "rare" meaningless.
LOL! Correct! I've converted it to different units, call it a unit-free number representing collector interest. If that's too outside the box or twisted for this discussion that I haven't fully enjoyed yet, then fine. Continue contemplating the rarity of things that are probably rare because nobody cared about them. (j/k )
@Omegaraptor said:
I used to try to pin “rare” down to a specific number known, but at this point I think of “rare” as “if I miss out on the one that just showed up on the auction block or dealer inventory, it’ll be a long time before I see another”.
I would call quite a few of the very early half dime issues “rare” - how often do you see an 1803 Small 8 or 1805 offered for sale?
Whether this coin/stamp combination is a distinct “issue” is debatable, but I know I will probably never see another offered for sale.
I'll be a long time before I see one of these for sale in a $2 junk box at coin show as well. This is an 1798/7 16-stars dime made into a love token.
Any particular item or event may be rare, but rare events happen all the time, and that's part of the fun of collecting as well as the allure of lotto games. The more you see and know, the more rarities you discover.
I like 55 doubled die cents. Your curved clip doesn't interest me.
As a major error coin dealer/collector, I have never owned a 1955 Double Die because it is way too common.
I'll take that clip every day because it is way undervalued and way way more rare.
I know. But, of course, you're also talking your book.
I don't believe any US coin is overvalued or undervalued. The market is too mature for that.
I disagree, so many factors to consider. Every single coin that I buy is undervalued, otherwise I would not buy it.
I would like to think the same thing about my scarce to rare chopmarked trade dollars however the market demand just isn't there. Despite how unique and interesting your coins are, I would never be interested in paying a premium for an error coin and many others are the same. Many would say the exact same thing about chopmarks or lots of other types of coins as well. It's not that complicated, you have to have the demand to push the value up otherwise scarcity or uniqueness by itself doesn't mean anything (when talking monetary value).
That is not what I am saying. Do you buy every single chopmarked dollar you see or do you just buy the nicest ones that you perceive are undervalued to the market?
Every coin I buy is undervalued in the market. I do not not buy every error coin that I see. It's called being a dealer.
Perhaps you're the lone exception, but I don't know any dealers who make a profit on every coin they sell. So, while they buy coins that they think are undervalued and/or that they can sell for a profit - those aren't necessarily the same thing - they're not always right. Your posts indicate that you KNOW that which everyone else merely thinks. I'm happy for you.
Chris is willing to hold the coins for as long as it takes for the market to make him "right". It'll be interesting to see what happens if error coins go into a prolonged downturn.
Its not amount making me right. It is about buying undervalued based on all my points above. And pricing those coins properly with excellentphotography.
I make markets!
I don't understand how it's possible to "make markets" in unique coins. But then, I'm still unable to understand @ctf_error_coins business model. For example, I don't understand someone wanting to be recognized as a coin dealer who has all his money in stocks and cash because he can't buy any coins. YMMV, of course.
@Walkerguy21D said:
There are a handful of truly rare US coins, but most of them are not in popular collected series.
Most scarce dates are available in some kind of condition, but could be undesirable except as hole fillers. I think most “key” dates are actually condition rarities. To the collectors they seem rare because they are searching for a scarce coin, but in a particular grade in a particular holder at a certain price point.
If you think “there are only a handful of truly rare U.S. coins” then your definition of “truly rare” is the strictest I’ve heard of. How few known examples of a particular coin do there need to be for you to consider it “truly rare”? Fewer than 10? 5? 3?
Along the lines of the aforementioned 1894S dime….like R7ish.
And how would you define it?
I’m not sure how I’d define “truly rare” but my number would certainly be greater than 10. And even using your own example of 1894-S dimes would constitute more than a “handful”.
So your definition of truly rare might be as high as 20, 30, or more? If so, then that certainly differs from my opinion.
Yes, my definition might be 20 or more.
Curiously, how do you distinguish “truly rare” from “rare”?
And again, even using your own example of 1894-S dimes as coins that would qualify, the number is more than your initial “only a handful of truly rare coins”.
Rarity in practical terms is equal to demand over supply. It represents the intensity of competition. It's an "If a tree falls in the woods..." sort of thing. Any discussion of actual numbers of items is essentially irrelevant without knowing the demand for this item.
(My a priori thinking documented, now I'll read the rest of this thread)
I don't think that's a good definition. So if there's a million of them but 1.1 million people that want them, they are "rare"?
By your definition, houses are "rare" because there's at least one person who wants one that doesn't have one.
I agree. That definition spoke to availability, based on supply and demand, not rarity. If there are X number of a given coin in existence, the coin doesn’t become more or less rare, just because demand fluctuates.
Who cares if it's deemed rare if there's no demand for the coin?
That’s one of the points that’s been made and discussed in this thread - rarity, alone, doesn’t necessarily result in high value. But that’s not a valid reason to distort the meaning of “rare” by equating it with instances in which demand exceeds supply. A coin doesn’t magically become rarer, due to higher demand, though it can become more valuable.
But it's a different and interesting way to think of rarity, though. A coin's rarity becomes meaningful with demand. Otherwise, who cares? LOL!
I could not disagree more. You're conflating two different things. Yes, supply and demand matter when setting price. But to equates rarity with price makes it impossible to talk about. Your definition leaves you with "rare coins" with 100,000 examples and "not rare" coins with only 5 examples. You've made the meaning of "rare" meaningless.
I'm not equating rarity with price, I'm using supply and demand to estimate intensity of collector interest, which correlates well with, and should reflect price but doesn't necessarily match. Some are overvalued, some are undervalued relative to supply/demand. I guess I'm thinking a time lag between my index of collector "interest" or "pressure" and market adjustments. I'm envisioning using this index to make comparisons against price to spot undervalued and overvalued coins.
Remember I haven't done this as I only tossed this up in this thread. The funny thing is I'm looking at numerical rarity in LSCC surveys to make comparisons against current prices. The toughest thing for me to estimate in my model would be demand in the market, other than following price. However, there is a lot of auction data to be mined.
Rarity could be rated by assigning arbitrary cutoffs along that unitless index of collector pressure. Your house example would score low (1.1). So would my rare SLH DM example (aside from the popular varieties). Obviously, a 93-S Morgan would score quite high.
I've done something similar to assess species as indicators of conditions along environmental gradients. It worked very well, even outperforming standard indicator analyses. I'm just playing around here with a half-baked idea half baked.
A key date does not equal a rare date. Also a rare date does not always equal a key date. It’s like comparing apples to oranges. Completely different definitions for the most part. Ask any series collector what the key date to that series is and you will mostly get the same answer. Is it rare? Probably not, but often the highest cost in the series.
Members I have done business with: Silverman68, jfoot13, GAB, ricman, Smittys, scrapman1077, RyGuy, Connecticoin, Meltdown, VikingDude, Peaceman, Patches and more.
A difficult to find coin in a grade and with certain eye appeal and at the right price, that you have about 30 seconds to pull the trigger before another 20 collectors do.
A coin in a grade and with certain eye appeal and at the right price, you have about 30 seconds to pull the trigger before another 20 collectors do.
A key coin, perhaps, but not a "key date", as the date isn't a (pun intended) key component to your scenario.
Not only that, but almost everyone would say that an S-VDB is a key date Lincoln cent, and you can find them all the time with no rush to pull the trigger.
A coin in a grade and with certain eye appeal and at the right price, you have about 30 seconds to pull the trigger before another 20 collectors do.
A key coin, perhaps, but not a "key date", as the date isn't a (pun intended) key component to your scenario.
Give me a “key date” coin of your choosing and I will find it for you. The issue will be the price. Lots of key dates are available, but they are of poor eye appeal and over priced. By definition, key dates have many willing buyers and few opportunities.
I like 55 doubled die cents. Your curved clip doesn't interest me.
As a major error coin dealer/collector, I have never owned a 1955 Double Die because it is way too common.
I'll take that clip every day because it is way undervalued and way way more rare.
I know. But, of course, you're also talking your book.
I don't believe any US coin is overvalued or undervalued. The market is too mature for that.
I disagree, so many factors to consider. Every single coin that I buy is undervalued, otherwise I would not buy it.
I would like to think the same thing about my scarce to rare chopmarked trade dollars however the market demand just isn't there. Despite how unique and interesting your coins are, I would never be interested in paying a premium for an error coin and many others are the same. Many would say the exact same thing about chopmarks or lots of other types of coins as well. It's not that complicated, you have to have the demand to push the value up otherwise scarcity or uniqueness by itself doesn't mean anything (when talking monetary value).
That is not what I am saying. Do you buy every single chopmarked dollar you see or do you just buy the nicest ones that you perceive are undervalued to the market?
Every coin I buy is undervalued in the market. I do not not buy every error coin that I see. It's called being a dealer.
Perhaps you're the lone exception, but I don't know any dealers who make a profit on every coin they sell. So, while they buy coins that they think are undervalued and/or that they can sell for a profit - those aren't necessarily the same thing - they're not always right. Your posts indicate that you KNOW that which everyone else merely thinks. I'm happy for you.
Chris is willing to hold the coins for as long as it takes for the market to make him "right". It'll be interesting to see what happens if error coins go into a prolonged downturn.
Its not amount making me right. It is about buying undervalued based on all my points above. And pricing those coins properly with excellentphotography.
I make markets!
I don't understand how it's possible to "make markets" in unique coins.
Obviously, it’s not like in the stock market, where market makers are expected to always maintain an inventory in their markets. Being a market maker in rare coins just means you’re always in the market to buy or sell whatever you can, at realistic prices.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I like 55 doubled die cents. Your curved clip doesn't interest me.
As a major error coin dealer/collector, I have never owned a 1955 Double Die because it is way too common.
I'll take that clip every day because it is way undervalued and way way more rare.
I know. But, of course, you're also talking your book.
I don't believe any US coin is overvalued or undervalued. The market is too mature for that.
I disagree, so many factors to consider. Every single coin that I buy is undervalued, otherwise I would not buy it.
I would like to think the same thing about my scarce to rare chopmarked trade dollars however the market demand just isn't there. Despite how unique and interesting your coins are, I would never be interested in paying a premium for an error coin and many others are the same. Many would say the exact same thing about chopmarks or lots of other types of coins as well. It's not that complicated, you have to have the demand to push the value up otherwise scarcity or uniqueness by itself doesn't mean anything (when talking monetary value).
That is not what I am saying. Do you buy every single chopmarked dollar you see or do you just buy the nicest ones that you perceive are undervalued to the market?
Every coin I buy is undervalued in the market. I do not not buy every error coin that I see. It's called being a dealer.
Perhaps you're the lone exception, but I don't know any dealers who make a profit on every coin they sell. So, while they buy coins that they think are undervalued and/or that they can sell for a profit - those aren't necessarily the same thing - they're not always right. Your posts indicate that you KNOW that which everyone else merely thinks. I'm happy for you.
Chris is willing to hold the coins for as long as it takes for the market to make him "right". It'll be interesting to see what happens if error coins go into a prolonged downturn.
Its not amount making me right. It is about buying undervalued based on all my points above. And pricing those coins properly with excellentphotography.
I make markets!
I don't understand how it's possible to "make markets" in unique coins.
Obviously, it’s not like in the stock market, where market makers are expected to always maintain an inventory in their markets. Being a market maker in rare coins just means you’re always in the market to buy or sell whatever you can, at realistic prices.
Andy, I don't think that your definition of a "market maker" in rare coins can realistically be applied to one-of-a- kind (or extremely low population) coins that don't have established market values. I'm speaking of issues such as many of the Pattern and error coins.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I apologize in advance for being contentious and pedantic but you do not. Earlier, you said specifically that you will not buy every single error coin and you have extremely tight guidelines. No problem, that is your MO as a dealer.
A market maker cannot operate under those requirements. A market maker MUST make a market, even if you don't like the item being sold. The market maker compensates for buying lowly desired items by setting a low bid price. The market maker compensates for being forced to sell highly desired items by setting a high offer price. The market maker exists solely to flip items and endeavors to NOT keep inventory.
You are not a market maker. You are a dealer in a very specialized corner of the market.
I apologize in advance for being contentious and pedantic but you do not. Earlier, you said specifically that you will not buy every single error coin and you have extremely tight guidelines. No problem, that is your MO as a dealer.
A market maker cannot operate under those requirements. A market maker MUST make a market, even if you don't like the item being sold. The market maker compensates for buying lowly desired items by setting a low bid price. The market maker compensates for being forced to sell highly desired items by setting a high offer price. The market maker exists solely to flip items and endeavors to NOT keep inventory.
You are not a market maker. You are a dealer in a very specialized corner of the market.
Wrong, a coin market maker does not have to buy every coin. I only buy high end eye appeal so If a struck thru cloth error coin comes up and has horrible eye appeal or a low grade, I can not buy it as that is not my "market"
Comments
It's a FACT that turnover matters.
What's better: turning over your inventory (fully invested) once per year with a 100% profit margin or 10 times per year with a 10% profit margin?
TRUTH!
It's possible but it's much more likely that there is no true known value because the market is so thin and they may be undervalued or overvalued or properly valued but even an expert like yourself can't be 100% positive about every coin. This is true of ALL thin markets that don't have true price discovery.
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US Gold Showcase --- World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
That is hilarious and you just made my early point.
Enjoy your day sir, I am enjoying mine and will continue to do so.
No answer?
I'll give you a hint, 10% turned over 10 times is significantly better than 100% once.
I'm enjoying my day. Glad you are also.
I always thought I was a great at math, but your the pro at it
The real question is wether you use a calculator or your gut to price your coins.
A 10% profit compounded 10 times is 150% cumulative profit.
You believe in TRUTH but not math?
I actually use a price guide or do some mental math. No calculator required. Sometimes I just start the auction at my break even number.
Math is truth dummy.
One and the same.
What's a price guide?
Exactly!
Lol. Have you ever considered that it isn't that our business knowledge is flawed but that you are in a unique market?
Using your model, there would be zero bullion dealers out there. Their whole business requires high turnover.
Why would I want to be a bullion dealer, zero desire. Zero professional satisfaction.
Why would I want to do high turnover when I am a one man operation and have other hobbies to deal with for fun.
My business model could be applied to many segments of the numismatic market. Dealing in the best rainbow toned Morgan dollars for example. How about only high end mint state tokens. So many options.
Here is the key to the business model besides supreme eye appeal ...
... super high end coin photography so your client knows exactly what they are getting
You’re badly mistaken. He CAN be 100% positive about every coin. He said so, himself.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Yes indeed when you make the market.
To be fair, in this thread I did say that I made mistakes in the past, learned from them and no longer make mistakes.
It is possible to buy coins at a price which you believe will allow you to make a profit when you resell. There are any number of reasons that might explain such a circumstance, including more demand than previously existed.
But that is not even a little bit like proving that coins are "undervalued." Markets change over time, and buying in bulk from another dealer can get the buyer a discount.
Edit--I see that this thread has devolved into silly insults; I'm out.
"proving that coins are "undervalued." "
My balance sheet proves it but you got to take my word for it because I ain't making that public.
I guess what gets me is that YN's that want to pursue a fulfilling career in Numismatics get some not so good advise on how to operate a successful full time business.
I want them to know there is another way rather than the tradition route.
This is an internet world and so many are still analog.
Exactly. That's what's making my search so difficult. I'm putting together a set of CIRCULATED Carson City Morgans, and I've found that mint state specimens absolutely dominate 1880-1885. I still cannot locate a VF35-AU50 1884-CC, and the other five in that date range gave me fits, and I even had to pay over "book" for three of those. I'd pay better than mint state prices for a circulated 1884. I chose the road less traveled, as I wanted coins that had an actual history -- coins that actually changed hands during everyday transactions procuring goods and supplies, not coins sitting in a government vault 80-100 years.
.
Apparently, anyone who buys a coin and resells it for a profit, had acquired an “undervalued” coin. That would even include people who knowingly buy counterfeits at low prices and resell them to unsuspecting buyers for large profits. When those sellers acquired them, the counterfeits were severely “undervalued”. And their balance sheets prove it.😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
PCGS needs to add a drop down glossary.
Walmart's balance sheet must prove that bread is undervalued.
No one told you to go into the bullion business. But no one, other than you, is insulting people for pointing out how aspects of business work.
You have always insulted my business model and imo you give out poor business information.
I have NEVER "insulted" your business model. I have pointed out (correctly) that turnover is an actual thing. And, believe it or not, your business would actually benefit from higher turnover. Almost any business would benefit from higher turnover because it decreases capital needs and compounds profit margins. You don't HAVE to change. But that's different than calling it bad business advice.
If you want to give good advice to YNs, telling them to ignore turnover and avoid liquid low-margin rapid turnover material is probably not the best advice. Most BM coin stores do not stay open on low turnover, high margin material. They pay their expenses with good old low margin, high turnover bullion and scrap.
And if you would like a little "business advice", or even if you wouldn't, I'm not sure strutting on forums and telling people that you only buy "undervalued coins" is the best way to get them to sell to you.
Turn over and flipping are two extremely different things.
Replacement inventory is a major concern and super labor intensive.
My excess capital is in cash and stocks because buying new inventory is extremely difficult.
I literally can't find any coins right now that fit my extremely tight guidelines.
My last 10 hobby purchases have been expensive bonsai trees and bait to go Sport fishing on a private boat.
...> @jmlanzaf said:
No. You have that sort of situation with proof sets. Rarity is when that ratio of demand to supply is much higher than your example.
Who cares if it's deemed rare if there's no demand for the coin?
That’s one of the points that’s been made and discussed in this thread - rarity, alone, doesn’t necessarily result in high value. But that’s not a valid reason to distort the meaning of “rare” by equating it with instances in which demand exceeds supply. A coin doesn’t magically become rarer, due to higher demand, though it can become more valuable.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
And that can all be part of the equation. But that's not the same as saying that turnover doesn't help.
True story. I flirted with being a full-time coin dealer at one time. The problem was - as you mention - it was just so hard to constantly find new material worth buying that I went back to teaching. LOL. Had I been more patient, I probably could have gotten there, but I could turn it over faster than I could buy it. And I didn't have deep enough pockets at the time to plumb deeper waters.
The market is mature but thinly traded. Referencing a recent example, the Fairmont material. Much of it blew past the original published price guides. Even the recent non-CAC is keeping up with the revised published prices. Price dislocations occur daily. I do not know what depth you are referring to. Maybe TPG Morgans? That is a singe segment of the marketplace.
Regarding the original post, there is no absolute answer to the original question. There are some coins that are key as facts, conventional wisdom and history suggests, and there are some coins that are not key as post web listings affirm. The "key" is to be as informed as possible and a student of the series you are collecting IMO.
Your welcome. I agree with your first part of the response. But to add when the market speaks we all should listen carefully.
But that's all that matters in this hobby. Rarity is meaningless without collector demand in this hobby.
I collect Newfoundland halves where mintages are in the tens of thousands for most dates. One can purchase a decent example of every date for under $50 apiece.
I own an R8 die variety that grades F15. When it comes time to sell it, I'll bet it sells for less than a 16-D Merc dime in AG3, of which PCGS has slabbed about 4000. How much would it sell for if it were a Bust Half? The numbers of a certain dates are fun to think about but that demand to supply ratio is what brings relevance to rarity. It's really all that's meaningful to most collectors.
Anyway, I thought up this approach on the fly, but I like to collect and think about numerically rare things (coins and specialized insects) and rarity has different meaning/significance it seems depending upon the item.
But it's a different and interesting way to think of rarity, though. A coin's rarity becomes meaningful with demand. Otherwise, who really concerns themselves with its rarity? You can look at and contemplate numerical rarity (as I'm working on now with the 42-O small date, and 74-S DMs), but it strikes me as having little meaning in the hobby without demand. So, for this discussion, I express it as a unitless number in terms of supply and demand to toss up that idea to bat around. Call it rarity expressed as a unitless number. If only we knew the true numbers of coins and collectors out there interested in them, we could have fun running analyses of this and its relation to value. That might take some of the fun out of the hobby.
Among SLHs, an R3 die marriage (200-500 coins) in G4 can range in value from $50 to $500 (40-O WB4) or more. How people feel about the scarcity of an R3 coin depends upon the demand for that coin. People get agitated when I mention that the 40-(O) WB4 is common. The 40-O WB4 is a common die marriage that's worth ten times what most R3s are worth. I personally don't consider a die marriage to be numerically rare unless there are under 30 examples thought to exist (R6-R8) but I collect in the SLH world, where the premium for even an R6 DM may range from $0(?) to thousands depending upon demand.
Anyway, it's been fun. I want to go back and read the rest of this interesting discussion. Thanks!
I could not disagree more. You're conflating two different things. Yes, supply and demand matter when setting price. But to equates rarity with price makes it impossible to talk about. Your definition leaves you with "rare coins" with 100,000 examples and "not rare" coins with only 5 examples. You've made the meaning of "rare" meaningless.
LOL! Correct! I've converted it to different units, call it a unit-free number representing collector interest. If that's too outside the box or twisted for this discussion that I haven't fully enjoyed yet, then fine. Continue contemplating the rarity of things that are probably rare because nobody cared about them. (j/k
)
I'll be a long time before I see one of these for sale in a $2 junk box at coin show as well. This is an 1798/7 16-stars dime made into a love token.
Any particular item or event may be rare, but rare events happen all the time, and that's part of the fun of collecting as well as the allure of lotto games. The more you see and know, the more rarities you discover.
One thing I learned, the 1901-s quarter isn't rare. Expensive yes, rare no.
A holed 1901-S is rare, but doable.
it was just so hard to constantly find new material worth buying that I went back to teaching.
Went back to fill in the blank.The tale of woe of many a wannabe dealer of quality collector coins. If you can't buy it, you can't sell it.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
I don't understand how it's possible to "make markets" in unique coins. But then, I'm still unable to understand @ctf_error_coins business model. For example, I don't understand someone wanting to be recognized as a coin dealer who has all his money in stocks and cash because he can't buy any coins. YMMV, of course.
I'm not equating rarity with price, I'm using supply and demand to estimate intensity of collector interest, which correlates well with, and should reflect price but doesn't necessarily match. Some are overvalued, some are undervalued relative to supply/demand. I guess I'm thinking a time lag between my index of collector "interest" or "pressure" and market adjustments. I'm envisioning using this index to make comparisons against price to spot undervalued and overvalued coins.
Remember I haven't done this as I only tossed this up in this thread. The funny thing is I'm looking at numerical rarity in LSCC surveys to make comparisons against current prices. The toughest thing for me to estimate in my model would be demand in the market, other than following price. However, there is a lot of auction data to be mined.
Rarity could be rated by assigning arbitrary cutoffs along that unitless index of collector pressure. Your house example would score low (1.1). So would my rare SLH DM example (aside from the popular varieties). Obviously, a 93-S Morgan would score quite high.
I've done something similar to assess species as indicators of conditions along environmental gradients. It worked very well, even outperforming standard indicator analyses. I'm just playing around here with a half-baked idea half baked.
A key date does not equal a rare date. Also a rare date does not always equal a key date. It’s like comparing apples to oranges. Completely different definitions for the most part. Ask any series collector what the key date to that series is and you will mostly get the same answer. Is it rare? Probably not, but often the highest cost in the series.
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My definition of a "key date"
A difficult to find coin in a grade and with certain eye appeal and at the right price, that you have about 30 seconds to pull the trigger before another 20 collectors do.
A key coin, perhaps, but not a "key date", as the date isn't a (pun intended) key component to your scenario.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Not only that, but almost everyone would say that an S-VDB is a key date Lincoln cent, and you can find them all the time with no rush to pull the trigger.
Give me a “key date” coin of your choosing and I will find it for you. The issue will be the price. Lots of key dates are available, but they are of poor eye appeal and over priced. By definition, key dates have many willing buyers and few opportunities.
Here are some key date coins
Obviously, it’s not like in the stock market, where market makers are expected to always maintain an inventory in their markets. Being a market maker in rare coins just means you’re always in the market to buy or sell whatever you can, at realistic prices.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Andy, I don't think that your definition of a "market maker" in rare coins can realistically be applied to one-of-a- kind (or extremely low population) coins that don't have established market values. I'm speaking of issues such as many of the Pattern and error coins.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I make markets.
I apologize in advance for being contentious and pedantic but you do not. Earlier, you said specifically that you will not buy every single error coin and you have extremely tight guidelines. No problem, that is your MO as a dealer.
A market maker cannot operate under those requirements. A market maker MUST make a market, even if you don't like the item being sold. The market maker compensates for buying lowly desired items by setting a low bid price. The market maker compensates for being forced to sell highly desired items by setting a high offer price. The market maker exists solely to flip items and endeavors to NOT keep inventory.
You are not a market maker. You are a dealer in a very specialized corner of the market.
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US Gold Showcase --- World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
Awhile ago, I told Mike that I make the market in "Struck Thru Cloth Error Coins".
Mike disagreed and told me that I am "The Market".
I could not stop laughing as I half way agreed.
Bottom line is .. If you want any of the very best examples of a struck thru cloth error coin, your gunna have to talk to me.
Wrong, a coin market maker does not have to buy every coin. I only buy high end eye appeal so If a struck thru cloth error coin comes up and has horrible eye appeal or a low grade, I can not buy it as that is not my "market"
@ARCO said: "Give me a “key date” coin of your choosing and I will find it for you. The issue will be the price."
There's this guy assembling a set of Liberty Head $10 in Proof. Please find the following dates in Proof:
-1870
-1877
-1880
Thank you.
End Systemic Elitism - It Takes All Of Us