@Jzyskowski1 said:
Well ok. Let’s not get in a hurry to proclaim the 2- coin set the winner. 250,000 is not a low mintage. The 2- coin reverse proof type 1&2 ase’s only had a
Mintage of 125,000 and well. Check eBay. The proof example may hold water but they are making a bunch. 400,000. The peace example in proof is with an S mint mark. ?
None of the mintages are low enough to guarantee anything. But I wouldn't automatically compare them to ASEs. ASEs need to have mintages below 75,000 before they are a "winner". The 2021 Morgans were a winner, and still are, at a mintage much higher if you consider all 5 mint marks.
I do worry about the Peace proofs if they stamp them out like Pringles every year what that does to values. They will sell out of the chute no worries.
The reverse proofs will do no justice to the original designs. Aesthetically I do not like that finish on coins.
@BStrauss3 said: @HATTRICK while I have many powers, even a few super powers, understanding the US Mint is not one of them.
Loose or incomplete marketing claims makes good and sometimes extraordinary sales increases.
When Ty released the Princess Diana Bear it said "For the first month there will only be 12 bears per location" This was hyped as there would only be a very limited number ever available and the first month part got lost in the sauce. Little did anyone know that within a few months millions would be available.
My professor in Business Law in college designed the ad that boosted Crisco shorting and made it a household staple.
They showed a beautiful piece of crisp dry chicken fried in Crisco and claimed only a very minute amount of the fat was absorbed into the chicken, The saying was " Things fried right in Crisco taste better than baking." What they did not say was that "fried right" required a very expensive commercial cooker that fried at extremely high temperatures at extremely high pressure. Sometimes its not just what you say but also what you don't say.
Moral of the story is that these coins will not be sold out by enrollments.
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
@oilers99 said:
Not only did the Mint raise the HHLs, I noticed they raised the coin prices too. Inflation rears its ugly head...
They have to, by law, cover their costs. Costs being loosely defined to apparently include much of the fixed costs of running a mint. SIlver spot is up from when they published the initial prices.
-----Burton ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
Added a 6 item subscription today.
Took from 920am to reloaded success at 150pm. Left a few times, came back, reloaded maybe 3 dozen times over the hours.
Also adjusted up to 5 reverse proof set from 3 which was easy peezy.
These are pricey based on $21 spot selling for estimated $80 to $92.50 per ounce coin but are less cost compared to very low mintage 2022 Carr Art issues:
When we relaunched the Morgan and Peace Silver Dollars in 2021, they were greeted with tremendous enthusiasm and sold quickly. We regret that many were unable to obtain the coins they sought. Subscriptions for these limited edition 2023 products opened in August 2022, and the response has been excellent.
>
Thanks to our initial low household order limit of 3 coins each, we are confident that our customers have had the opportunity to subscribe and reserve the coins they desire for their collection. Now, while supplies last, customers have the opportunity to secure additional examples of these iconic coins.
>
Please note, due to high demand and limited quantities the Mint will cancel any orders that exceed the new household order limit. For those who prefer not to subscribe, we have reserved a limited quantity of 10% of each product for sale at launch.
I just finally rcvd the e-mail that everyone rcvd a few days back...and actually read the fine print.
So, they (the US Mint) was really just playing games all along with the original HHL. And NOW, that they are confident, everyone has gotten their full, they have up'd the HHL limits. Oh, and they're holding 10% back for day a sale sales...
Right, got it...They were playing us the whole time!
Cancelled tonight. No longer looks like a flipable product. I would like to know how many cancellations due to the increased HHL's? The mint might have shot their foot off with this move.
When we relaunched the Morgan and Peace Silver Dollars in 2021, they were greeted with tremendous enthusiasm and sold quickly. We regret that many were unable to obtain the coins they sought. Subscriptions for these limited edition 2023 products opened in August 2022, and the response has been excellent.
>
Thanks to our initial low household order limit of 3 coins each, we are confident that our customers have had the opportunity to subscribe and reserve the coins they desire for their collection. Now, while supplies last, customers have the opportunity to secure additional examples of these iconic coins.
>
Please note, due to high demand and limited quantities the Mint will cancel any orders that exceed the new household order limit. For those who prefer not to subscribe, we have reserved a limited quantity of 10% of each product for sale at launch.
I just finally rcvd the e-mail that everyone rcvd a few days back...and actually read the fine print.
So, they (the US Mint) was really just playing games all along with the original HHL. And NOW, that they are confident, everyone has gotten their full, they have up'd the HHL limits. Oh, and they're holding 10% back for day a sale sales...
Right, got it...They were playing us the whole time!
If Only the Mint was that good!!
I don't understand why this is playing us. Just look at it from their perspective. The goal is NOT to create a lottery and a lucrative flip. It's to supply a market and generate a return for the Treasury.
Based on the insanity last time, they vastly increased mintages AND lowered HHLs to ensure wide availability.
Now, here we are, all these months later and no sell out. So, rather than be stuck with a ton after release, they are allowing people to buy some more pre-release.
It's still not unlimited, but it will be 24 hours after the on-sale date, as it should be. They also should hold some back for the actual release, rather than pre-selling everything through subscriptions.
Why is this some kind of scam? Their goal is to sell as many as they can, and to give everyone who wants one the opportunity to buy.
It might turn out that organic demand, absent hoarding and flipping, is less than 275-400K. If so, I'm sure they will adjust mintages down in the future, but it's worth keeping in mind that the goal isn't to create a lottery for bots and us to double, triple or quadruple our money in 5 minutes. The goal is for them to sell $20 worth of silver for $80+, and to do it as many times as the market will bear.
probably not good they are doing this. Implies that the demand is not as great as expected, and consequently, would anticipate the price in the open market will not be as high as hoped. toying with reducing my subscription. Will wait for a few more days/weeks to see how it plays out.
@telephoto1 said: probably not good they are doing this. Implies that the demand is not as great as expected
Bingo. Also implies that flippers were more important to their sales numbers than they thought...
As I always said. People whine about flippers and resellers, but they do a lot of free (to the Mint) promotion. Take them out of the equation...I hope you love your Mint products and don't care about future value.
Scarcity breeds interest and value. I don’t give a flip about flippers. If people miss out because of them, then it’s part of the game and you buy on the secondary market and pay the price for something you want.
I'm mad at the mint for giving me a chance to get more and I canceled all my orders.
Just kidding!
There are plenty of people that don't know about the enrollment program, I let 2 friends know about it that regularly order from the mint they jumped at the chance to enroll. It also seems that much of the general public doesn't follow mint offerings very close. It's only when they start seeing pre-order listings pop up on ebay that they know about the product. Once much of the mintage is sold by enrollment fewer people will be able to get them the day of release. Also the first people who get their coins and make the first listings on ebay will almost always see a profit. I hope they mail out the enrollments before the release day sales. The 2021's are still selling above issue price 2 years later. It may not be a huge money maker but I'm sure I will be able to offset the cost of the set I want to keep.
I have seen articles that contend that scarcity of a few key dates is what generates interest for a series. Silver eagles have a few and so does just about every other coin series out there. People building a collection know it and accept it. With this series it may be the first year, or something in the future.
I think 2023 issues are going to generate interest in the series - it will be easy to start - and then they can dial it down in the future (and generate complaints that the mintage is too low). Maybe not a good opportunity for flippers in the beginning, but your day is coming.
A key component to the announcement was that the mint will reserve 10% of the product limit for day of release sales.
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That would suggest that only 247,500 of each of the unc, 360,000 of each of the proofs, and 225,000 of the RP set are up for grabs in the subscription program, with the balance of the mintage/product limit of each being held for day of release sales.
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Here are the current "stocklevel" numbers for each of the subscription items as of writing this reply:
Morgan unc: 44,423 (...of estimated 247,500 made available)
Peace unc: 50,619 (...of estimated 247,500 made available)
Morgan proof: 117,441 (...of estimated 360,000 made available)
Peace proof: 130,877 (...of estimated 360,000 made available)
RP set: 30,631 (...of estimated 225,000 made available)
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
With the number of enrollments still available and the 10% hold back for sales the day of release there will be plenty of these available, think 2023 W proof ASE.
@SPalladino said:
A key component to the announcement was that the mint will reserve 10% of the product limit for day of release sales.
.
That would suggest that only 247,500 of each of the unc, 360,000 of each of the proofs, and 225,000 of the RP set are up for grabs in the subscription program, with the balance of the mintage/product limit of each being held for day of release sales.
.
Here are the current "stocklevel" numbers for each of the subscription items as of writing this reply:
Morgan unc: 44,423 (...of estimated 247,500 made available)
Peace unc: 50,619 (...of estimated 247,500 made available)
Morgan proof: 117,441 (...of estimated 360,000 made available)
Peace proof: 130,877 (...of estimated 360,000 made available)
RP set: 30,631 (...of estimated 225,000 made available)
Thanks for posting the current subscription numbers.
Not sure if it will be the same in 2023, but the 2021 releases were available via the ABPP (i.e., Advance Release).
Assuming this option is 'available/exercised', it would also lower the number "up for grabs" in the subscription program.
Considering that we used to all bumrush the website on the first day of sales...are these remaining numbers with several months to go before the sales even begin so out of line?
After more stories appear in the numismatic press and the telemarketers do their thing, do we not think that these will be mopped up?
@telephoto1 said: probably not good they are doing this. Implies that the demand is not as great as expected
Bingo. Also implies that flippers were more important to their sales numbers than they thought...
Isn't this always the case? People want what they can't have, and the more they can't have it, the more they want.
How is the Mint supposed to know what organic demand is, unless they make an unlimited quantity and see where the chips fall? They are trying to split the baby here, by announcing a limit, but making it large enough for everyone to get in. If they overshot, they'll just fix that next year.
Again, the goal is to sell as many as the market can absorb, at as great a profit as the market will bear. While, we'd all love to see them limit the mintage to 1945 coins, and to sell them at spot, that would only result in 1945 people jumping for joy that they turned $20 into $20,000, and, literally tens of thousands of us screaming about how what the Mint did was BS.
This is the alternative. We all get to buy beautiful coins with popular designs at a price comparable to what Dan Carr would sell them for, or what world mints sell their collector coins for. They make around as many as the market can absorb, and there are little to no excess profits for flippers.
Of course that reduces demand, but it also reduces overhang on the market. The market always settles at a natural level that balances supply and demand. Collectors who actually want to collect them are better served having more available at a lower secondary market price, presumably at or near original issue price, which should be the goal. People who just stalk the website looking for a fast buck will just have to go back to selling Nikes.
@telephoto1 said: probably not good they are doing this. Implies that the demand is not as great as expected
Bingo. Also implies that flippers were more important to their sales numbers than they thought...
Isn't this always the case? People want what they can't have, and the more they can't have it, the more they want.
How is the Mint supposed to know what organic demand is, unless they make an unlimited quantity and see where the chips fall? They are trying to split the baby here, by announcing a limit, but making it large enough for everyone to get in. If they overshot, they'll just fix that next year.
Again, the goal is to sell as many as the market can absorb, at as great a profit as the market will bear. While, we'd all love to see them limit the mintage to 1945 coins, and to sell them at spot, that would only result in 1945 people jumping for joy that they turned $20 into $20,000, and, literally tens of thousands of us screaming about how what the Mint did was BS.
This is the alternative. We all get to buy beautiful coins with popular designs at a price comparable to what Dan Carr would sell them for, or what world mints sell their collector coins for. They make around as many as the market can absorb, and there are little to no excess profits for flippers.
Of course that reduces demand, but it also reduces overhang on the market. The market always settles at a natural level that balances supply and demand. Collectors who actually want to collect them are better served having more available at a lower secondary market price, presumably at or near original issue price, which should be the goal. People who just stalk the website looking for a fast buck will just have to go back to selling Nikes.
You're the one talking about how this is going to be a great awesome ongoing series with staying power rivaling the ASE, not me. 7 digits of ASEs sell every year and these are slow to sell out 400k.
@smuglr said:
7 digits of ASEs sell every year and these are slow to sell out 400k.
7 digits of ASEs don't sell out every year at 4x spot.
The regular issues, no, but those were designed to compete in the bullion coin market. The proofs/reverse PFs and other special issues usually do at 4x if not higher.
@MetroD said:
Thanks for posting the current subscription numbers.
Not sure if it will be the same in 2023, but the 2021 releases were available via the ABPP (i.e., Advance Release).
Assuming this option is 'available/exercised', it would also lower the number "up for grabs" in the subscription program.
@MetroD said:
Thanks for posting the current subscription numbers.
Not sure if it will be the same in 2023, but the 2021 releases were available via the ABPP (i.e., Advance Release).
Assuming this option is 'available/exercised', it would also lower the number "up for grabs" in the subscription program.
I think you are correct, so that would be another 10%.
Thank you for that reminder.
Note: these numbers were from about 3.5 hours ago. I just did a quick look at RP (now 30802), and Morgan unc (now 45148)...so there appears to be a net reduction of subscription numbers happening so far today (fewer subscription orders = more stock available).
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@smuglr said:
7 digits of ASEs sell every year and these are slow to sell out 400k.
7 digits of ASEs don't sell out every year at 4x spot.
Comparing proofs and collector coins to bullion always amuses me. Some people do not make a distinction.
As stated previously, the proof and collector version ASEs usually sell out at 4x or more. Other people here are the ones calling them as desirable as ASEs and predicting them having the longevity of ASEs...definitely not me. Not an apples/apples comparison. Frankly if the ASEs weren't also being marketed as bullion and hadn't generated the buzz and demand in that arena that they have, I'm not sure they'd have had the same longevity. (How's that for a provocative statement?)
@telephoto1 said: probably not good they are doing this. Implies that the demand is not as great as expected
Bingo. Also implies that flippers were more important to their sales numbers than they thought...
Isn't this always the case? People want what they can't have, and the more they can't have it, the more they want.
How is the Mint supposed to know what organic demand is, unless they make an unlimited quantity and see where the chips fall? They are trying to split the baby here, by announcing a limit, but making it large enough for everyone to get in. If they overshot, they'll just fix that next year.
Again, the goal is to sell as many as the market can absorb, at as great a profit as the market will bear. While, we'd all love to see them limit the mintage to 1945 coins, and to sell them at spot, that would only result in 1945 people jumping for joy that they turned $20 into $20,000, and, literally tens of thousands of us screaming about how what the Mint did was BS.
This is the alternative. We all get to buy beautiful coins with popular designs at a price comparable to what Dan Carr would sell them for, or what world mints sell their collector coins for. They make around as many as the market can absorb, and there are little to no excess profits for flippers.
Of course that reduces demand, but it also reduces overhang on the market. The market always settles at a natural level that balances supply and demand. Collectors who actually want to collect them are better served having more available at a lower secondary market price, presumably at or near original issue price, which should be the goal. People who just stalk the website looking for a fast buck will just have to go back to selling Nikes.
You're the one talking about how this is going to be a great awesome ongoing series with staying power rivaling the ASE, not me. 7 digits of ASEs sell every year and these are slow to sell out 400k.
7 digits of burnished and proofs? ASEs have 6 different varieties? These are very popular, and are doing just fine compared to the annual ASE collector offerings.
7 digits of burnished and proofs? ASEs have 6 different varieties? These are very popular, and are doing just fine compared to the annual ASE collector offerings.
I don't have the energy left to keep typing variations of the same response to different people so just look at my most recent post just above yours. I have a note submission to ship out to PMG before the PO closes. Have a nice evening.
I just finally rcvd the e-mail that everyone rcvd a few days back...and actually read the fine print.
So, they (the US Mint) was really just playing games all along with the original HHL. And NOW, that they are confident, everyone has gotten their full, they have up'd the HHL limits. Oh, and they're holding 10% back for day a sale sales...
Right, got it...They were playing us the whole time!
If Only the Mint was that good!!
I don't understand why this is playing us. Just look at it from their perspective. The goal is NOT to create a lottery and a lucrative flip. It's to supply a market and generate a return for the Treasury.
>
I guess my sarcasm didn't make it though about the US Mint playing us... They ain't that smart.
I seriously doubt the Mint had any plan to begin with...they are a guvmit organization - they are not that witty or smart when it comes to marketing.
Frankly, I think their e-mail about how they had all this planned out but now they were increasing the HHL's was more of a lie than anything else.
@smuglr said:
7 digits of ASEs sell every year and these are slow to sell out 400k.
7 digits of ASEs don't sell out every year at 4x spot.
Comparing proofs and collector coins to bullion always amuses me. Some people do not make a distinction.
As stated previously, the proof and collector version ASEs usually sell out at 4x or more. Other people here are the ones calling them as desirable as ASEs and predicting them having the longevity of ASEs...definitely not me. Not an apples/apples comparison. Frankly if the ASEs weren't also being marketed as bullion and hadn't generated the buzz and demand in that arena that they have, I'm not sure they'd have had the same longevity. (How's that for a provocative statement?)
I just finally rcvd the e-mail that everyone rcvd a few days back...and actually read the fine print.
So, they (the US Mint) was really just playing games all along with the original HHL. And NOW, that they are confident, everyone has gotten their full, they have up'd the HHL limits. Oh, and they're holding 10% back for day a sale sales...
Right, got it...They were playing us the whole time!
If Only the Mint was that good!!
I don't understand why this is playing us. Just look at it from their perspective. The goal is NOT to create a lottery and a lucrative flip. It's to supply a market and generate a return for the Treasury.
>
I guess my sarcasm didn't make it though about the US Mint playing us... They ain't that smart.
I seriously doubt the Mint had any plan to begin with...they are a guvmit organization - they are not that witty or smart when it comes to marketing.
Frankly, I think their e-mail about how they had all this planned out but now they were increasing the HHL's was more of a lie than anything else.
I understand, and your sarcasm came through just fine. I am just respectfully disagreeing, insofar as I am reading it very differently, and it makes perfect sense to me.
The 2021 release was a total clusterf*** because they waaaaaay underestimated demand. Their solution was to significantly increase mintages AND significantly decrease the HHLs on subscriptions.
I am not reading it that they claim to have planned out anything. These are months away from release, and I'm quite sure they have not yet minted all of them, if any. They are out nothing if sales stall right here.
So, why is it unreasonable to just take them at their word? They opened subscriptions in August. It is now March and they are not yet sold out, so they are increasing HHLs, in case anyone has any interest in reserving more ahead of the release date, since anyone interested has now had 8 months to sign up. Nothing nefarious, and I don't read it as them claiming to have planned anything.
Clearly, they'd like to sell them all, but, if the demand is not there, so be it. They'll sell what they can, call it a day, and lower mintages next year. These will not be dogs if they "only" sell 1.4 million coins across all the options instead of the maximum 1.8 million, especially when compared to how many collector ASEs they sell every year.
A loss for flippers is a big win for them, when the alternative is selling out a mintage of half or less of what they planned, handing a windfall to flippers while leaving tens of thousands of collectors disappointed and empty handed..
I also agree that the Mint underestimated demand in 2021....and disappointed collectors in 2022 with no coins...and responded by attempting to spread the goods as far and wide as possible in 2023 (regardless of issue price).
Not sure why everything in life must now involve a multidimensional conspiracy theory these days...sometimes a cigar is just a cigar!
And I come from a time when everyone mailed their little paper order form to the Mint along with a check and happily waited months for your treasures to arrive...usually with no mintage limits announced in advance...and a HHL of 5 (or less)!
And sometimes, like Forrest Gump, you ended up with a special piece of chocolate!
@RichR said:
I also agree that the Mint underestimated demand in 2021....and disappointed collectors in 2022 with no coins...and responded by attempting to spread the goods as far and wide as possible in 2023 (regardless of issue price).
Not sure why everything in life must now involve a multidimensional conspiracy theory these days...sometimes a cigar is just a cigar!
And I come from a time when everyone mailed their little paper order form to the Mint along with a check and happily waited months for your treasures to arrive...usually with no mintage limits announced in advance...and a HHL of 5 (or less)!
And sometimes, like Forrest Gump, you ended up with a special piece of chocolate!
So true. Apparently we now have too much transparency.
When they are hard to get, we complain. When they are easy to get, we complain. Life is too short to be always complaining.
@smuglr said:
7 digits of ASEs sell every year and these are slow to sell out 400k.
7 digits of ASEs don't sell out every year at 4x spot.
Comparing proofs and collector coins to bullion always amuses me. Some people do not make a distinction.
As stated previously, the proof and collector version ASEs usually sell out at 4x or more. Other people here are the ones calling them as desirable as ASEs and predicting them having the longevity of ASEs...definitely not me. Not an apples/apples comparison. Frankly if the ASEs weren't also being marketed as bullion and hadn't generated the buzz and demand in that arena that they have, I'm not sure they'd have had the same longevity. (How's that for a provocative statement?)
That's why I think combining the ASE program with the Morgan/Peace program might not be a bad idea. Canada has 1 oz maple leafs with the same diameter as a Morgan/Peace dollar. They could always put 1 oz fine silver on the edge for bullion versions. That's the flaw in the legislation.
@smuglr said:
7 digits of ASEs sell every year and these are slow to sell out 400k.
7 digits of ASEs don't sell out every year at 4x spot.
Comparing proofs and collector coins to bullion always amuses me. Some people do not make a distinction.
As stated previously, the proof and collector version ASEs usually sell out at 4x or more. Other people here are the ones calling them as desirable as ASEs and predicting them having the longevity of ASEs...definitely not me. Not an apples/apples comparison. Frankly if the ASEs weren't also being marketed as bullion and hadn't generated the buzz and demand in that arena that they have, I'm not sure they'd have had the same longevity. (How's that for a provocative statement?)
That's why I think combining the ASE program with the Morgan/Peace program might not be a bad idea. Canada has 1 oz maple leafs with the same diameter as a Morgan/Peace dollar. They could always put 1 oz fine silver on the edge for bullion versions. That's the flaw in the legislation.
Why? So people can complain about the expensive bullion? If you want to produce bullion as bullion, you want to keep the costs as low as possible to keep the premiums as low as possible. That means more uniformity. Frankly, if the Mint wanted to produce bullion more cost effectively, they would stop issuing the eagles as dated coins and just produce them as silver rounds.
@smuglr said:
7 digits of ASEs sell every year and these are slow to sell out 400k.
7 digits of ASEs don't sell out every year at 4x spot.
Comparing proofs and collector coins to bullion always amuses me. Some people do not make a distinction.
As stated previously, the proof and collector version ASEs usually sell out at 4x or more. Other people here are the ones calling them as desirable as ASEs and predicting them having the longevity of ASEs...definitely not me. Not an apples/apples comparison. Frankly if the ASEs weren't also being marketed as bullion and hadn't generated the buzz and demand in that arena that they have, I'm not sure they'd have had the same longevity. (How's that for a provocative statement?)
That's why I think combining the ASE program with the Morgan/Peace program might not be a bad idea. Canada has 1 oz maple leafs with the same diameter as a Morgan/Peace dollar. They could always put 1 oz fine silver on the edge for bullion versions. That's the flaw in the legislation.
Why? So people can complain about the expensive bullion? If you want to produce bullion as bullion, you want to keep the costs as low as possible to keep the premiums as low as possible. That means more uniformity. Frankly, if the Mint wanted to produce bullion more cost effectively, they would stop issuing the eagles as dated coins and just produce them as silver rounds.
Silver rounds would spark complaints just like the American Arts Gold Medals.
@smuglr said:
7 digits of ASEs sell every year and these are slow to sell out 400k.
7 digits of ASEs don't sell out every year at 4x spot.
Comparing proofs and collector coins to bullion always amuses me. Some people do not make a distinction.
Me, too.
You know collectibles and proof bullion from the mint.gov isn't even allowed in precious metal IRAs . Oh, but all those gold and silver eagles and buffaloes purchased outside the mint are. ( side bar).
@smuglr said:
7 digits of ASEs sell every year and these are slow to sell out 400k.
7 digits of ASEs don't sell out every year at 4x spot.
Comparing proofs and collector coins to bullion always amuses me. Some people do not make a distinction.
As stated previously, the proof and collector version ASEs usually sell out at 4x or more. Other people here are the ones calling them as desirable as ASEs and predicting them having the longevity of ASEs...definitely not me. Not an apples/apples comparison. Frankly if the ASEs weren't also being marketed as bullion and hadn't generated the buzz and demand in that arena that they have, I'm not sure they'd have had the same longevity. (How's that for a provocative statement?)
That's why I think combining the ASE program with the Morgan/Peace program might not be a bad idea. Canada has 1 oz maple leafs with the same diameter as a Morgan/Peace dollar. They could always put 1 oz fine silver on the edge for bullion versions. That's the flaw in the legislation.
Why? So people can complain about the expensive bullion? If you want to produce bullion as bullion, you want to keep the costs as low as possible to keep the premiums as low as possible. That means more uniformity. Frankly, if the Mint wanted to produce bullion more cost effectively, they would stop issuing the eagles as dated coins and just produce them as silver rounds.
Silver rounds would spark complaints just like the American Arts Gold Medals.
I agree. But that's just the Mint not really wanting to sell bullion.
@smuglr said:
7 digits of ASEs sell every year and these are slow to sell out 400k.
7 digits of ASEs don't sell out every year at 4x spot.
Comparing proofs and collector coins to bullion always amuses me. Some people do not make a distinction.
Me, too.
You know collectibles and proof bullion from the mint.gov isn't even allowed in precious metal IRAs . Oh, but all those gold and silver eagles and buffaloes purchased outside the mint are. ( side bar).
????? This is strictly to keep people from tax sheltering their hobbies, and has nothing to do with where coins are purchased, since all US coins are manufactured by the Mint.
Coins whose value derives primarily from the their precious metal content (bullion) are IRA eligible. Coins that are issued at a huge premium (proof and burnished) are not.
Easy peasy, and it does not matter where they are purchased. If the Mint sold bullion at retail directly from its website, it would still be IRA eligible.
Easy peasy, and it does not matter where they are purchased. If the Mint sold bullion at retail directly from its website, it would still be IRA eligible.
The Mint sent out a survey about doing just that once...
Looks like subscription product available has decreased significantly in one day....either new subscribers, or folks increasing their subscription number, or a bit of both.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Comments
None of the mintages are low enough to guarantee anything. But I wouldn't automatically compare them to ASEs. ASEs need to have mintages below 75,000 before they are a "winner". The 2021 Morgans were a winner, and still are, at a mintage much higher if you consider all 5 mint marks.
The main thrust of my post was in reference to the 2- coin sets. They were low mintage 125,000 and they are not a winner. Thanks
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
@HATTRICK while I have many powers, even a few super powers, understanding the US Mint is not one of them.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
I do worry about the Peace proofs if they stamp them out like Pringles every year what that does to values. They will sell out of the chute no worries.
The reverse proofs will do no justice to the original designs. Aesthetically I do not like that finish on coins.
Not only did the Mint raise the HHLs, I noticed they raised the coin prices too. Inflation rears its ugly head...
Loose or incomplete marketing claims makes good and sometimes extraordinary sales increases.
When Ty released the Princess Diana Bear it said "For the first month there will only be 12 bears per location" This was hyped as there would only be a very limited number ever available and the first month part got lost in the sauce. Little did anyone know that within a few months millions would be available.
My professor in Business Law in college designed the ad that boosted Crisco shorting and made it a household staple.
They showed a beautiful piece of crisp dry chicken fried in Crisco and claimed only a very minute amount of the fat was absorbed into the chicken, The saying was " Things fried right in Crisco taste better than baking." What they did not say was that "fried right" required a very expensive commercial cooker that fried at extremely high temperatures at extremely high pressure. Sometimes its not just what you say but also what you don't say.
Moral of the story is that these coins will not be sold out by enrollments.
They have to, by law, cover their costs. Costs being loosely defined to apparently include much of the fixed costs of running a mint. SIlver spot is up from when they published the initial prices.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
Added a 6 item subscription today.
Took from 920am to reloaded success at 150pm. Left a few times, came back, reloaded maybe 3 dozen times over the hours.
Also adjusted up to 5 reverse proof set from 3 which was easy peezy.
These are pricey based on $21 spot selling for estimated $80 to $92.50 per ounce coin but are less cost compared to very low mintage 2022 Carr Art issues:
https://www.dc-coin.com/
Love the design, 2023 US Mints' issues fits well with my 2022 Carr issues.
From the US Mint E-mail:
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I just finally rcvd the e-mail that everyone rcvd a few days back...and actually read the fine print.
So, they (the US Mint) was really just playing games all along with the original HHL. And NOW, that they are confident, everyone has gotten their full, they have up'd the HHL limits. Oh, and they're holding 10% back for day a sale sales...
Right, got it...They were playing us the whole time!
If Only the Mint was that good!!
BST references available on request
Cancelled tonight. No longer looks like a flipable product. I would like to know how many cancellations due to the increased HHL's? The mint might have shot their foot off with this move.
I don't understand why this is playing us. Just look at it from their perspective. The goal is NOT to create a lottery and a lucrative flip. It's to supply a market and generate a return for the Treasury.
Based on the insanity last time, they vastly increased mintages AND lowered HHLs to ensure wide availability.
Now, here we are, all these months later and no sell out. So, rather than be stuck with a ton after release, they are allowing people to buy some more pre-release.
It's still not unlimited, but it will be 24 hours after the on-sale date, as it should be. They also should hold some back for the actual release, rather than pre-selling everything through subscriptions.
Why is this some kind of scam? Their goal is to sell as many as they can, and to give everyone who wants one the opportunity to buy.
It might turn out that organic demand, absent hoarding and flipping, is less than 275-400K. If so, I'm sure they will adjust mintages down in the future, but it's worth keeping in mind that the goal isn't to create a lottery for bots and us to double, triple or quadruple our money in 5 minutes. The goal is for them to sell $20 worth of silver for $80+, and to do it as many times as the market will bear.
Four times spot price and increased household limits ought to create a sell-out. Just not this household.
probably not good they are doing this. Implies that the demand is not as great as expected, and consequently, would anticipate the price in the open market will not be as high as hoped. toying with reducing my subscription. Will wait for a few more days/weeks to see how it plays out.
probably not good they are doing this. Implies that the demand is not as great as expected
Bingo. Also implies that flippers were more important to their sales numbers than they thought...
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
As I always said. People whine about flippers and resellers, but they do a lot of free (to the Mint) promotion. Take them out of the equation...I hope you love your Mint products and don't care about future value.
Scarcity breeds interest and value. I don’t give a flip about flippers. If people miss out because of them, then it’s part of the game and you buy on the secondary market and pay the price for something you want.
I'm mad at the mint for giving me a chance to get more and I canceled all my orders.
Just kidding!
There are plenty of people that don't know about the enrollment program, I let 2 friends know about it that regularly order from the mint they jumped at the chance to enroll. It also seems that much of the general public doesn't follow mint offerings very close. It's only when they start seeing pre-order listings pop up on ebay that they know about the product. Once much of the mintage is sold by enrollment fewer people will be able to get them the day of release. Also the first people who get their coins and make the first listings on ebay will almost always see a profit. I hope they mail out the enrollments before the release day sales. The 2021's are still selling above issue price 2 years later. It may not be a huge money maker but I'm sure I will be able to offset the cost of the set I want to keep.
I have seen articles that contend that scarcity of a few key dates is what generates interest for a series. Silver eagles have a few and so does just about every other coin series out there. People building a collection know it and accept it. With this series it may be the first year, or something in the future.
I think 2023 issues are going to generate interest in the series - it will be easy to start - and then they can dial it down in the future (and generate complaints that the mintage is too low). Maybe not a good opportunity for flippers in the beginning, but your day is coming.
A key component to the announcement was that the mint will reserve 10% of the product limit for day of release sales.
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That would suggest that only 247,500 of each of the unc, 360,000 of each of the proofs, and 225,000 of the RP set are up for grabs in the subscription program, with the balance of the mintage/product limit of each being held for day of release sales.
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Here are the current "stocklevel" numbers for each of the subscription items as of writing this reply:
Morgan unc: 44,423 (...of estimated 247,500 made available)
Peace unc: 50,619 (...of estimated 247,500 made available)
Morgan proof: 117,441 (...of estimated 360,000 made available)
Peace proof: 130,877 (...of estimated 360,000 made available)
RP set: 30,631 (...of estimated 225,000 made available)
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
With the number of enrollments still available and the 10% hold back for sales the day of release there will be plenty of these available, think 2023 W proof ASE.
Or to put it another way... if they started day-of sales right now, between 22 and 43% of the product would be available for sale...
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
Thanks for posting the current subscription numbers.
Not sure if it will be the same in 2023, but the 2021 releases were available via the ABPP (i.e., Advance Release).
Assuming this option is 'available/exercised', it would also lower the number "up for grabs" in the subscription program.
Reference
thanks for the chart. As always this will be another story to follow. good luck to all who want to collect and also to thoes who like to flip.
Considering that we used to all bumrush the website on the first day of sales...are these remaining numbers with several months to go before the sales even begin so out of line?
After more stories appear in the numismatic press and the telemarketers do their thing, do we not think that these will be mopped up?
Isn't this always the case? People want what they can't have, and the more they can't have it, the more they want.
How is the Mint supposed to know what organic demand is, unless they make an unlimited quantity and see where the chips fall? They are trying to split the baby here, by announcing a limit, but making it large enough for everyone to get in. If they overshot, they'll just fix that next year.
Again, the goal is to sell as many as the market can absorb, at as great a profit as the market will bear. While, we'd all love to see them limit the mintage to 1945 coins, and to sell them at spot, that would only result in 1945 people jumping for joy that they turned $20 into $20,000, and, literally tens of thousands of us screaming about how what the Mint did was BS.
This is the alternative. We all get to buy beautiful coins with popular designs at a price comparable to what Dan Carr would sell them for, or what world mints sell their collector coins for. They make around as many as the market can absorb, and there are little to no excess profits for flippers.
Of course that reduces demand, but it also reduces overhang on the market. The market always settles at a natural level that balances supply and demand. Collectors who actually want to collect them are better served having more available at a lower secondary market price, presumably at or near original issue price, which should be the goal. People who just stalk the website looking for a fast buck will just have to go back to selling Nikes.
You're the one talking about how this is going to be a great awesome ongoing series with staying power rivaling the ASE, not me. 7 digits of ASEs sell every year and these are slow to sell out 400k.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
7 digits of ASEs sell every year and these are slow to sell out 400k.
7 digits of ASEs don't sell out every year at 4x spot.
Comparing proofs and collector coins to bullion always amuses me. Some people do not make a distinction.
The regular issues, no, but those were designed to compete in the bullion coin market. The proofs/reverse PFs and other special issues usually do at 4x if not higher.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
And more articles like this should help...the most read article of the week.
https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/week-s-most-read-2023-morgan-peace-dollars
I never thought I would say this, but I agree with ricko
I think you are correct, so that would be another 10%.
Thank you for that reminder.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Note: these numbers were from about 3.5 hours ago. I just did a quick look at RP (now 30802), and Morgan unc (now 45148)...so there appears to be a net reduction of subscription numbers happening so far today (fewer subscription orders = more stock available).
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
As stated previously, the proof and collector version ASEs usually sell out at 4x or more. Other people here are the ones calling them as desirable as ASEs and predicting them having the longevity of ASEs...definitely not me. Not an apples/apples comparison. Frankly if the ASEs weren't also being marketed as bullion and hadn't generated the buzz and demand in that arena that they have, I'm not sure they'd have had the same longevity. (How's that for a provocative statement?)
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
7 digits of burnished and proofs? ASEs have 6 different varieties? These are very popular, and are doing just fine compared to the annual ASE collector offerings.
I don't have the energy left to keep typing variations of the same response to different people so just look at my most recent post just above yours. I have a note submission to ship out to PMG before the PO closes. Have a nice evening.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
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I guess my sarcasm didn't make it though about the US Mint playing us... They ain't that smart.
I seriously doubt the Mint had any plan to begin with...they are a guvmit organization - they are not that witty or smart when it comes to marketing.
Frankly, I think their e-mail about how they had all this planned out but now they were increasing the HHL's was more of a lie than anything else.
BST references available on request
I wasn't accusing you. I was agreeing with you.
I understand, and your sarcasm came through just fine. I am just respectfully disagreeing, insofar as I am reading it very differently, and it makes perfect sense to me.
The 2021 release was a total clusterf*** because they waaaaaay underestimated demand. Their solution was to significantly increase mintages AND significantly decrease the HHLs on subscriptions.
I am not reading it that they claim to have planned out anything. These are months away from release, and I'm quite sure they have not yet minted all of them, if any. They are out nothing if sales stall right here.
So, why is it unreasonable to just take them at their word? They opened subscriptions in August. It is now March and they are not yet sold out, so they are increasing HHLs, in case anyone has any interest in reserving more ahead of the release date, since anyone interested has now had 8 months to sign up. Nothing nefarious, and I don't read it as them claiming to have planned anything.
Clearly, they'd like to sell them all, but, if the demand is not there, so be it. They'll sell what they can, call it a day, and lower mintages next year. These will not be dogs if they "only" sell 1.4 million coins across all the options instead of the maximum 1.8 million, especially when compared to how many collector ASEs they sell every year.
A loss for flippers is a big win for them, when the alternative is selling out a mintage of half or less of what they planned, handing a windfall to flippers while leaving tens of thousands of collectors disappointed and empty handed..
I also agree that the Mint underestimated demand in 2021....and disappointed collectors in 2022 with no coins...and responded by attempting to spread the goods as far and wide as possible in 2023 (regardless of issue price).
Not sure why everything in life must now involve a multidimensional conspiracy theory these days...sometimes a cigar is just a cigar!
And I come from a time when everyone mailed their little paper order form to the Mint along with a check and happily waited months for your treasures to arrive...usually with no mintage limits announced in advance...and a HHL of 5 (or less)!
And sometimes, like Forrest Gump, you ended up with a special piece of chocolate!
So true. Apparently we now have too much transparency.
When they are hard to get, we complain. When they are easy to get, we complain. Life is too short to be always complaining.
That's why I think combining the ASE program with the Morgan/Peace program might not be a bad idea. Canada has 1 oz maple leafs with the same diameter as a Morgan/Peace dollar. They could always put 1 oz fine silver on the edge for bullion versions. That's the flaw in the legislation.
Why? So people can complain about the expensive bullion? If you want to produce bullion as bullion, you want to keep the costs as low as possible to keep the premiums as low as possible. That means more uniformity. Frankly, if the Mint wanted to produce bullion more cost effectively, they would stop issuing the eagles as dated coins and just produce them as silver rounds.
Silver rounds would spark complaints just like the American Arts Gold Medals.
Me, too.
You know collectibles and proof bullion from the mint.gov isn't even allowed in precious metal IRAs . Oh, but all those gold and silver eagles and buffaloes purchased outside the mint are. ( side bar).
Truth be told, I'm more annoyed at the Morgan/Peace "gap" created with no coins issued last year.
Plus...I wouldn't have been too broken up if the ASE program has simply ended AND BEEN REPLACED by the Morgan/Peace program...one for one!
I'm simply not too keen on the new ASE reverse.
I agree. But that's just the Mint not really wanting to sell bullion.
????? This is strictly to keep people from tax sheltering their hobbies, and has nothing to do with where coins are purchased, since all US coins are manufactured by the Mint.
Coins whose value derives primarily from the their precious metal content (bullion) are IRA eligible. Coins that are issued at a huge premium (proof and burnished) are not.
Easy peasy, and it does not matter where they are purchased. If the Mint sold bullion at retail directly from its website, it would still be IRA eligible.
The Mint sent out a survey about doing just that once...
Looks like subscription product available has decreased significantly in one day....either new subscribers, or folks increasing their subscription number, or a bit of both.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor